Post by Rays GM (forbz) on Mar 31, 2015 17:37:42 GMT -5
1. Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs
It's not as though Bryant has done anything to defy my contention that he's baseball's best prospect, showing power and a good approach in spring training. He needs some work on his defense, but I don't think that alone is reason to send him down for a few weeks. He remains my pick for NL Rookie of the Year.
2. Byron Buxton, CF, Minnesota Twins
Buxton had a brief stint with the Twins in major league camp, but more important, he's healthy. He missed so much time last year that 2015 will amount to just his second full pro season. He needs the reps, especially at the plate, as the Twins don't want to see a repeat of the Aaron Hicks debacle, where he might have come up too soon and has never recovered from his inability to adjust to major league pitching.
3. Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros
Correa got significant playing time with the major league team this month, which I take as a sign he'll be en route to Houston sooner rather than later. He's ready for Double-A, and the terrible leg injury last June that ended his 2014 season appears to be totally behind him.
4. Addison Russell, SS, Chicago Cubs
Russell is the Cubs' shortstop of the future, Starlin Castro notwithstanding, and has been extremely impressive all spring, even against major league pitching. I do think he'll need to show he can hit for power while maintaining the patience he showed in the low minors before the Cubs want to call him up for good.
5. Corey Seager, SS/3B, Los Angeles Dodgers
Seager looks like he's a year or less away from being ready to join the big club, and while I respect the team's optimism about his ability to stay at shortstop, I don't share it. I'd put him at third base (where I expect him to be a plus defender) and, in 2016, newly signed infielder Hector Olivera at second.
6. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians
Lindor was sent down in late March, but he's ready for the majors in every sense of the word -- hitting, fielding, baserunning, instincts, maturity … you name it, this kid has it. When you hear about how a player seems to "slow the game down," that's how Lindor makes everything look. He could help Cleveland right now with his defense and ability to get on base, pushing Jason Kipnis to a corner outfield spot.
7. J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
I don't have much hope to offer Phillies fans just yet, but Crawford is a future star, and he'll probably see the majors inside of two years. There's a decent chance the team will try to rush him to the majors this year, but as impressive as he was at two levels last season, he needs another full year of development time before he's exposed to major league pitching -- and he'll miss the beginning of the year because of an oblique strain.
8. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Washington Nationals
Giolito should be poised for a breakout year of sorts, throwing more innings and, once he reaches Double-A, expanding his repertoire to reincorporate a two-seamer. The Potomac rotation should be a blast to watch with Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Nick Pivetta to start the year.
9. Julio Urias, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Once a pudgy, sub-6-foot 16-year-old who dominated the Midwest League, Urias is now a 6-2, 205-pound 18-year-old whose stuff can get big league hitters out but whose command and control need more time. The Culiacan native has been on tight innings limits the past two years, but should be able to work up to 120 or so innings this year in Double-A, and I don't think a late-season call-up for some bullpen work is out of the realm of possibility.
10. Blake Swihart, C, Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox won't give him up for Cole Hamels, and I don't think I would either. He's a super-athletic catcher with outstanding receiving and throwing skills, a good approach as a hitter and developing power. It's a potential All-Star set of tools and skills at a position that half of the clubs in baseball are trying to fill every winter.
11. Joey Gallo, 3B, Texas Rangers
Gallo is 80 raw power, incarnate. His BP sessions are legendary; his home runs can collapse empires. And he's making a lot of progress in improving his contact rate too. I think we'll see him for a cup of coffee at season's end, but given his track record, don't be surprised if his first turn or two around the big leagues involve a lot of strikeouts and a low batting average.
12. Carlos Rodon, LHP, Chicago White Sox
If you saw Rodon's start Thursday, you can understand why there was talk about him going first overall in the 2014 draft (he eventually slipped to the third pick). That slider is a wipeout pitch when it's on, an offering on par with Clayton Kershaw's curveball or King Felix's changeup. Rodon doesn't have that every time out, and his fastball command comes and goes, but if he gets to the majors soon, he'll still be able to miss a lot of bats even on nights when the slider is merely plus.
13. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Glasnow continues to build stamina and should be ready to jump to 140-150 innings this year, starting out in Double-A and perhaps moving up if he maintains his incredible strikeout rate. He has the highest upside of any of the Pirates' impressive stable of pitching prospects.
14. Jorge Soler, RF, Chicago Cubs
Soler has been terrorizing Cactus League pitchers, although I still want to see him resume the more disciplined approach he showed before he was called up in late August, as pitchers adjusted to him pretty quickly after his torrid first week in the majors. He's another potential ROY candidate in a loaded National League this year.
15. Miguel Sano, 3B, Minnesota Twins
Sano missed all of 2014 after Tommy John surgery but has recovered in full and resumed full baseball activities, even poking a pair of homers in spring training before his demotion to the minors. Look for him to reach the majors in June or July if he gets off to a strong start. That said, he struggled with contact in Double-A in '13 and has now gone more than a year without facing live pitching.
16. Yoan Moncada, 2B, Boston Red Sox
Moncada received a record $31 million bonus from the Red Sox, which doesn't reflect the 100 percent penalty the team paid for signing him or the draconian restrictions they'll face the next two years in the international amateur market. He's a massive kid for a 19-year-old, well filled out with power from both sides of the plate yet with enough athleticism to stay on the dirt in the short term, most likely at second base. I expect him to start out in A-ball and move up quickly if he shows he's too advanced for either low- or high-A.
17. Hunter Harvey, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Harvey's strong full-season debut was cut short when he experienced minor arm pain and the Orioles shut him down to be cautious with their most valuable prospect. He was barely back on the mound when he suffered what was called a slightly fractured fibula, which will put him out of action for at least six weeks (assuming the break is non-displaced). It doesn't affect his long-term value, but it's a disappointment for O's fans, especially those in high-A Frederick who will have to wait a little longer to see him pitch.
18. Daniel Norris, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Norris has looked incredible this spring, although to be fair and balanced about it, stuff has never really been Norris' issue. Command has, and to his credit, he has improved in that department from "hide your kids, hide your wife" to potentially average in just a few short years. He has three plus pitches just about every time he takes the mound, and I expect him to spend the bulk of the year in the Jays' rotation.
19. Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York Mets
Syndergaard has to be on the short list for a rotation spot in Queens now that the Mets' rotation is thinner than it was a month ago, although it makes sense for the team to send him down to further work on his secondary stuff and to hold off his eventual free agency by a year. He's a future workhorse with the chance to be a No. 2 starter, perhaps even more if his breaking ball, which already has gone from a grade-35 pitch to a grade-50 one, gets even better.
20. Braden Shipley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Shipley heads up the D-backs' impressive troika of top pitching prospects, possessing a three-pitch mix and solid command and control thanks to a delivery that's easy to repeat. He has the least experience of the trio above A-ball, so I wouldn't expect him to get the call first, but all three guys probably will make their major league debuts this season.
21. Henry Owens, LHP, Boston Red Sox
I don't see how any GM could get a call from the Red Sox without asking for Owens in any major deal, as Owens continues to rack up strikeouts as he moves up the ladder, reaching Triple-A last year at age 21. He was wild and ineffective in his spring training stint this year, but given his track record in real games, I don't think anyone should be concerned about him throwing strikes.
22. Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Bradley suffered a flexor tendon injury last year that took velocity off his fastball and bite off his curveball. Both pitches looked better this spring, although not quite as good as they had prior to 2014. His floor is still pretty high, given his size and overall health record, but he'll need to work on his changeup and using his stuff more to set up hitters rather than just blowing them away as he had in the past.
23. Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees
I told you Judge was a monster, but I guess the secret is out now that he has appeared in spring training games and acquitted himself rather well, hitting .278/.435/.500 in all of 23 plate appearances. He's not ready yet and I don't think he'll be ready that soon, with no games above high-A; higher-level pitchers are going to try to pound the inner third of the plate and tie him up, just given his size and the length of his arms. I believe he'll make that adjustment, the next in a line of adjustments he has made already.
24. Jose Peraza, SS/2B, Atlanta Braves
Peraza is probably the best second-base option in Atlanta's organization right now, but there's no reason to start his clock yet considering he doesn't turn 21 until late April and has only 44 games above A-ball. I'm sure his 1-for-16 line this spring didn't help his cause, but with Jace Peterson a capable stopgap at the position, demoting Peraza made all the sense in the world even if he'd gone 10-for-16.
25. Kyle Zimmer, RHP, Kansas City Royals
While the talk of Royals' minor league camp has been righty Scott Blewett, selected in the second round last year after a sore shoulder curtailed his senior season in high school, Zimmer also has been healthy and throwing well this spring. He had an injury riddled 2014 that ended in an operation to clean out his shoulder and, the Royals hope, to end the recurring pain that would have him hitting 96 one outing and then sitting around 90 the next. When he's right, he'll show three plus pitches, and he could impact the Royals' bullpen later this season the way Brandon Finnegan did last year.
26. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Bundy's return from Tommy John surgery hasn't been smooth or simple, as he came back with slightly reduced stuff and has struggled to regain the plus command he had before the injury. He appears to be healthy now and should return to his previous form in time, but he's a cautionary tale both for people who hand-wave away the operation as routine or without risk, and for teams considering the short rehab protocol that saw Bundy back on the mound in games in less than a year.
27. David Dahl, OF, Colorado Rockies
I'm expecting big things from Dahl this year, as he'll return to the high-A California League after turning 21 next week and shouldn't have the slow start he had in 2014 after missing nearly all of the previous year. Dahl is an outstanding athlete who is in tremendous shape -- one might say it's the finest condition of his existence to date -- and projects as a power/speed threat with plus defense.
28. Joc Pederson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Free at last, Pederson should be the Dodgers' primary center fielder this year, and he has had better at-bats this spring, at least looking more like he had a plan to get himself into a count in which he could drive something, as opposed to the passive approach he had last September when he looked overmatched. He's my pick for the non-Cub NL Rookie of the Year this season.
29. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Boston Red Sox
Rodriguez faced 29 batters this spring, punching out nine and walking none. The last stat is the only one here I think has much if any significance in the tiny spring training sample, especially because Rodriguez's deficiencies as a prospect were areas such as command and feel for pitching. He has two plus pitches, with the breaking ball gradually improving. Getting him for two months of Andrew Miller looks like a genius move by Red Sox GM Ben Cherington.
30. Alex Meyer, RHP, Minnesota Twins
It's top-of-the-rotation stuff, but Meyer walked more than a man an inning this spring, and I can't blame the Twins for sending him down. Keeping his 6-9 frame in line with a consistent delivery has always been a challenge, and he does need to improve his changeup, which he altered late last year. But ultimately his chance to join the Twins' rotation depends on his ability to throw his lively upper-90s fastball for strikes. If he can do that, he might be an ace.
31. Nomar Mazara, OF, Texas Rangers
Mazara won't turn 20 until late April, but has already had a brief stint in Double-A, and continues to improve by leaps and bounds in his approach (even telling Rangers beat writer Evan Grant this spring that he's trying to walk more) even as his power blossoms. He's a true impact bat in an outfield corner, and a fair bet to end up in the top 10 or so after a big season in Frisco, Texas.
32. Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Meadows played only a third of a season last year after a hamstring injury kept him off the field until the very end of June, but played so well that he's likely to start 2015 in high-A, which would be appropriate for his age (he'll turn 20 in May) and experience (second full calendar year in pro ball). He's an explosive talent, with power and speed, and so far has shown a solid plan at the plate, enough so that the Pirates even played him in an exhibition game this spring.
33. Mark Appel, RHP, Houston Astros
Appel is one of the few players on this list who has changed in a material way this spring; he's been sitting in the mid-90s, regularly hitting 98, with a plus slider, and most importantly with a slide-step delivery that should help mitigate his problems pitching with men on base. I'm not quite ready to call him a future ace again, but this is about as positive a set of signs as the Astros could get.
34. Jon Gray, RHP, Colorado Rockies
Gray has taken a small step backward, with a longer arm swing that eliminates any deception he might have had in his delivery, along with slightly reduced stuff this spring. Hitters will be all over his four-seamer if he can't find a way to hide the ball better or to get some sink or plane on the pitch, at which point he's more of a big, durable, low-ceiling prospect rather than the potential No. 1 or No. 2 starter he was coming out of Oklahoma. Shortening that arm stroke would help.
35. Jorge Alfaro, C, Texas Rangers
Contain your surprise, please, but Alfaro didn't draw a walk while playing for the major league team this spring, which is right in line with his track record of not taking the occasional pitch. However, he can still do a lot of other things well, including make contact, hit for power, throw and catch. Like Mazara, Alfaro finished at Double-A Frisco for a few weeks and should start the season there. As aggressive as the Rangers tend to be with prospects, Alfaro might be the one guy they put on the slow track, given all of the less obvious aspects to catching that he needs to work on, and his propensity to swing at every pitch thrown in his vicinity.
36. Aaron Blair, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Blair is the least heralded of the Diamondbacks' trio of top starting pitching prospects, but can hang with Shipley and Bradley pitch for pitch. After a successful stint with the major league club this spring (including the starting assignment in this past Sunday's exhibition game in Hermosillo, Mexico), he will be on the short list for a call-up if there's a need for another starter.
37. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Taillon is still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery -- on target for a midseason return to action -- which could put him in the major league bullpen by the tail end of the season, depending on how fast his stuff returns.
38. Tyler Kolek, RHP, Miami Marlins
Kolek continues to work on his off-speed stuff, sitting mid-90s this spring for the Marlins in minor league camp, with the potential to start the year in low-A. He's got the size and velocity, but needs work on his breaking ball, developing a change, and generally moving from "thrower" to "pitcher."
39. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, Kansas City Royals
The Royals' shortstop of the future is still just 19 years old and probably ticketed for Double-A, especially since the team brought him to big league camp and gave him a few at-bats. He has to continue to get stronger, and I'd like to see him focus less on bunting to get on base and more on trying to spray the field with line drives.
40. Jesse Winker, LF, Cincinnati Reds
Marlon Byrd should be just a one-year filler for the Reds in left, with Winker likely ready to step into the role for 2016. However, another high-OBP year for Winker should put him in line for a September call-up, especially if he can retain his power output after leaving hitter-friendly Bakersfield.
41. Michael Conforto, LF, New York Mets
The praise a prospect receives from pro scouts in his first spring training can be misleading -- I remember the plaudits for Justin Smoak back in March 2009 -- but I heard nothing but raves for Conforto in his brief time in major league camp. Let's hope this helps convince the Mets to move him more aggressively; as a highly polished product of a major Division I college program (Oregon State), Conforto should be able to go to Double-A right now.
42. Hunter Renfroe, OF, San Diego Padres
One of the Padres' three “untouchables” in their unending trade talks this winter -- along with catcher Austin Hedges and right-handed starter Matt Wisler -- Renfroe should be ready to take over in right field in 2016, with the biggest challenge for him keeping his contact rate up as he returns to Double-A this spring.
43. Dalton Pompey, CF, Toronto Blue Jays
Pompey appears set to be the Jays' full-time center fielder on Opening Day, a job for which his glove is certainly ready. I think his bat is advanced enough for him to be able to contribute on offense as well, as his at-bats are so good that he should still post a solid OBP even if he's not making as much hard contact as he will after another year or so of reps.
44. Nick Gordon, SS, Minnesota Twins
Gordon has long had the hit tool and the instincts to project as an every-day player in the majors, but adding about a dozen pounds of muscle this offseason helps address a critical question about his strength and durability, the same question that has long dogged his brother Dee, now with the Marlins. The Twins tend not to push their prospects quickly through the low minors, but I think Nick's experience level and draft status should have him starting at low-A, as Byron Buxton did two years ago.
45. Kevin Plawecki, C, New York Mets
Plawecki could make Travis d'Arnaud expendable, or could be trade bait himself, especially if he destroys PCL pitching on his return to Las Vegas this spring. He's a plus defensive catcher who doesn't have d'Arnaud's lengthy injury history, and it's likely that Plawecki will get his shot with the major league team by midyear, after which they'll be better equipped to decide how to manage both assets.
46. Andrew Susac, C, San Francisco Giants
The Giants optioned Susac to Triple-A a few days ago, which will get him regular at-bats but makes the major league club worse with Hector Sanchez as the backup to Buster Posey. Susac is their top prospect, and the wrist inflammation that bothered him earlier in March seems to be behind him, so they're a better team with him backing up Posey and even allowing Posey to take some games at other positions to keep his bat in the lineup.
47. Sean Newcomb, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
Newcomb made two appearances in major league camp and impressed the Angels with his stuff and confidence on the mound, but needs more work on command and experience facing better hitters than he did while at the University of Hartford. He could be a fast mover depending on how quickly he adapts, especially because the Angels have an acute need for starting pitching depth.
48. Ryan McMahon, 3B, Colorado Rockies
McMahon, like Dahl, will face a big test moving out of hitter-friendly Asheville this year, but both players are outstanding athletes who've shown the ability to make adjustments on the fly. The bigger challenge for McMahon will be improving his recognition of off-speed stuff from lefties, and adjusting to cover the outer third of the plate when they spin breaking balls away from him. His defense is already an asset, and he has middle-of-the-order upside with the bat.
49. Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Marcus Stroman's devastating injury created an opportunity for Sanchez to return to the rotation, and catcher Russell Martin is trying to get Sanchez to extend better over his front side, which will help make his breaking stuff sharper and keep his fastball from catching too much of the heart of the strike zone. He has Norris-level upside if he can make those adjustments and reincorporate his changeup into his repertoire.
50. Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Foltynewicz struggled in major league camp, allowing 22 baserunners while recording 23 outs, although that at least made the decision to return him to Triple-A for a second season easier. He continues to show a plus fastball and a curveball that flashes plus, but he's getting caught between a curve and a slider too often, and someone has to temper the pace of his delivery so he can throw more strikes.
It's not as though Bryant has done anything to defy my contention that he's baseball's best prospect, showing power and a good approach in spring training. He needs some work on his defense, but I don't think that alone is reason to send him down for a few weeks. He remains my pick for NL Rookie of the Year.
2. Byron Buxton, CF, Minnesota Twins
Buxton had a brief stint with the Twins in major league camp, but more important, he's healthy. He missed so much time last year that 2015 will amount to just his second full pro season. He needs the reps, especially at the plate, as the Twins don't want to see a repeat of the Aaron Hicks debacle, where he might have come up too soon and has never recovered from his inability to adjust to major league pitching.
3. Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros
Correa got significant playing time with the major league team this month, which I take as a sign he'll be en route to Houston sooner rather than later. He's ready for Double-A, and the terrible leg injury last June that ended his 2014 season appears to be totally behind him.
4. Addison Russell, SS, Chicago Cubs
Russell is the Cubs' shortstop of the future, Starlin Castro notwithstanding, and has been extremely impressive all spring, even against major league pitching. I do think he'll need to show he can hit for power while maintaining the patience he showed in the low minors before the Cubs want to call him up for good.
5. Corey Seager, SS/3B, Los Angeles Dodgers
Seager looks like he's a year or less away from being ready to join the big club, and while I respect the team's optimism about his ability to stay at shortstop, I don't share it. I'd put him at third base (where I expect him to be a plus defender) and, in 2016, newly signed infielder Hector Olivera at second.
6. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians
Lindor was sent down in late March, but he's ready for the majors in every sense of the word -- hitting, fielding, baserunning, instincts, maturity … you name it, this kid has it. When you hear about how a player seems to "slow the game down," that's how Lindor makes everything look. He could help Cleveland right now with his defense and ability to get on base, pushing Jason Kipnis to a corner outfield spot.
7. J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
I don't have much hope to offer Phillies fans just yet, but Crawford is a future star, and he'll probably see the majors inside of two years. There's a decent chance the team will try to rush him to the majors this year, but as impressive as he was at two levels last season, he needs another full year of development time before he's exposed to major league pitching -- and he'll miss the beginning of the year because of an oblique strain.
8. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Washington Nationals
Giolito should be poised for a breakout year of sorts, throwing more innings and, once he reaches Double-A, expanding his repertoire to reincorporate a two-seamer. The Potomac rotation should be a blast to watch with Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Nick Pivetta to start the year.
9. Julio Urias, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Once a pudgy, sub-6-foot 16-year-old who dominated the Midwest League, Urias is now a 6-2, 205-pound 18-year-old whose stuff can get big league hitters out but whose command and control need more time. The Culiacan native has been on tight innings limits the past two years, but should be able to work up to 120 or so innings this year in Double-A, and I don't think a late-season call-up for some bullpen work is out of the realm of possibility.
10. Blake Swihart, C, Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox won't give him up for Cole Hamels, and I don't think I would either. He's a super-athletic catcher with outstanding receiving and throwing skills, a good approach as a hitter and developing power. It's a potential All-Star set of tools and skills at a position that half of the clubs in baseball are trying to fill every winter.
11. Joey Gallo, 3B, Texas Rangers
Gallo is 80 raw power, incarnate. His BP sessions are legendary; his home runs can collapse empires. And he's making a lot of progress in improving his contact rate too. I think we'll see him for a cup of coffee at season's end, but given his track record, don't be surprised if his first turn or two around the big leagues involve a lot of strikeouts and a low batting average.
12. Carlos Rodon, LHP, Chicago White Sox
If you saw Rodon's start Thursday, you can understand why there was talk about him going first overall in the 2014 draft (he eventually slipped to the third pick). That slider is a wipeout pitch when it's on, an offering on par with Clayton Kershaw's curveball or King Felix's changeup. Rodon doesn't have that every time out, and his fastball command comes and goes, but if he gets to the majors soon, he'll still be able to miss a lot of bats even on nights when the slider is merely plus.
13. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Glasnow continues to build stamina and should be ready to jump to 140-150 innings this year, starting out in Double-A and perhaps moving up if he maintains his incredible strikeout rate. He has the highest upside of any of the Pirates' impressive stable of pitching prospects.
14. Jorge Soler, RF, Chicago Cubs
Soler has been terrorizing Cactus League pitchers, although I still want to see him resume the more disciplined approach he showed before he was called up in late August, as pitchers adjusted to him pretty quickly after his torrid first week in the majors. He's another potential ROY candidate in a loaded National League this year.
15. Miguel Sano, 3B, Minnesota Twins
Sano missed all of 2014 after Tommy John surgery but has recovered in full and resumed full baseball activities, even poking a pair of homers in spring training before his demotion to the minors. Look for him to reach the majors in June or July if he gets off to a strong start. That said, he struggled with contact in Double-A in '13 and has now gone more than a year without facing live pitching.
16. Yoan Moncada, 2B, Boston Red Sox
Moncada received a record $31 million bonus from the Red Sox, which doesn't reflect the 100 percent penalty the team paid for signing him or the draconian restrictions they'll face the next two years in the international amateur market. He's a massive kid for a 19-year-old, well filled out with power from both sides of the plate yet with enough athleticism to stay on the dirt in the short term, most likely at second base. I expect him to start out in A-ball and move up quickly if he shows he's too advanced for either low- or high-A.
17. Hunter Harvey, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Harvey's strong full-season debut was cut short when he experienced minor arm pain and the Orioles shut him down to be cautious with their most valuable prospect. He was barely back on the mound when he suffered what was called a slightly fractured fibula, which will put him out of action for at least six weeks (assuming the break is non-displaced). It doesn't affect his long-term value, but it's a disappointment for O's fans, especially those in high-A Frederick who will have to wait a little longer to see him pitch.
18. Daniel Norris, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Norris has looked incredible this spring, although to be fair and balanced about it, stuff has never really been Norris' issue. Command has, and to his credit, he has improved in that department from "hide your kids, hide your wife" to potentially average in just a few short years. He has three plus pitches just about every time he takes the mound, and I expect him to spend the bulk of the year in the Jays' rotation.
19. Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York Mets
Syndergaard has to be on the short list for a rotation spot in Queens now that the Mets' rotation is thinner than it was a month ago, although it makes sense for the team to send him down to further work on his secondary stuff and to hold off his eventual free agency by a year. He's a future workhorse with the chance to be a No. 2 starter, perhaps even more if his breaking ball, which already has gone from a grade-35 pitch to a grade-50 one, gets even better.
20. Braden Shipley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Shipley heads up the D-backs' impressive troika of top pitching prospects, possessing a three-pitch mix and solid command and control thanks to a delivery that's easy to repeat. He has the least experience of the trio above A-ball, so I wouldn't expect him to get the call first, but all three guys probably will make their major league debuts this season.
21. Henry Owens, LHP, Boston Red Sox
I don't see how any GM could get a call from the Red Sox without asking for Owens in any major deal, as Owens continues to rack up strikeouts as he moves up the ladder, reaching Triple-A last year at age 21. He was wild and ineffective in his spring training stint this year, but given his track record in real games, I don't think anyone should be concerned about him throwing strikes.
22. Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Bradley suffered a flexor tendon injury last year that took velocity off his fastball and bite off his curveball. Both pitches looked better this spring, although not quite as good as they had prior to 2014. His floor is still pretty high, given his size and overall health record, but he'll need to work on his changeup and using his stuff more to set up hitters rather than just blowing them away as he had in the past.
23. Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees
I told you Judge was a monster, but I guess the secret is out now that he has appeared in spring training games and acquitted himself rather well, hitting .278/.435/.500 in all of 23 plate appearances. He's not ready yet and I don't think he'll be ready that soon, with no games above high-A; higher-level pitchers are going to try to pound the inner third of the plate and tie him up, just given his size and the length of his arms. I believe he'll make that adjustment, the next in a line of adjustments he has made already.
24. Jose Peraza, SS/2B, Atlanta Braves
Peraza is probably the best second-base option in Atlanta's organization right now, but there's no reason to start his clock yet considering he doesn't turn 21 until late April and has only 44 games above A-ball. I'm sure his 1-for-16 line this spring didn't help his cause, but with Jace Peterson a capable stopgap at the position, demoting Peraza made all the sense in the world even if he'd gone 10-for-16.
25. Kyle Zimmer, RHP, Kansas City Royals
While the talk of Royals' minor league camp has been righty Scott Blewett, selected in the second round last year after a sore shoulder curtailed his senior season in high school, Zimmer also has been healthy and throwing well this spring. He had an injury riddled 2014 that ended in an operation to clean out his shoulder and, the Royals hope, to end the recurring pain that would have him hitting 96 one outing and then sitting around 90 the next. When he's right, he'll show three plus pitches, and he could impact the Royals' bullpen later this season the way Brandon Finnegan did last year.
26. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Bundy's return from Tommy John surgery hasn't been smooth or simple, as he came back with slightly reduced stuff and has struggled to regain the plus command he had before the injury. He appears to be healthy now and should return to his previous form in time, but he's a cautionary tale both for people who hand-wave away the operation as routine or without risk, and for teams considering the short rehab protocol that saw Bundy back on the mound in games in less than a year.
27. David Dahl, OF, Colorado Rockies
I'm expecting big things from Dahl this year, as he'll return to the high-A California League after turning 21 next week and shouldn't have the slow start he had in 2014 after missing nearly all of the previous year. Dahl is an outstanding athlete who is in tremendous shape -- one might say it's the finest condition of his existence to date -- and projects as a power/speed threat with plus defense.
28. Joc Pederson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Free at last, Pederson should be the Dodgers' primary center fielder this year, and he has had better at-bats this spring, at least looking more like he had a plan to get himself into a count in which he could drive something, as opposed to the passive approach he had last September when he looked overmatched. He's my pick for the non-Cub NL Rookie of the Year this season.
29. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Boston Red Sox
Rodriguez faced 29 batters this spring, punching out nine and walking none. The last stat is the only one here I think has much if any significance in the tiny spring training sample, especially because Rodriguez's deficiencies as a prospect were areas such as command and feel for pitching. He has two plus pitches, with the breaking ball gradually improving. Getting him for two months of Andrew Miller looks like a genius move by Red Sox GM Ben Cherington.
30. Alex Meyer, RHP, Minnesota Twins
It's top-of-the-rotation stuff, but Meyer walked more than a man an inning this spring, and I can't blame the Twins for sending him down. Keeping his 6-9 frame in line with a consistent delivery has always been a challenge, and he does need to improve his changeup, which he altered late last year. But ultimately his chance to join the Twins' rotation depends on his ability to throw his lively upper-90s fastball for strikes. If he can do that, he might be an ace.
31. Nomar Mazara, OF, Texas Rangers
Mazara won't turn 20 until late April, but has already had a brief stint in Double-A, and continues to improve by leaps and bounds in his approach (even telling Rangers beat writer Evan Grant this spring that he's trying to walk more) even as his power blossoms. He's a true impact bat in an outfield corner, and a fair bet to end up in the top 10 or so after a big season in Frisco, Texas.
32. Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Meadows played only a third of a season last year after a hamstring injury kept him off the field until the very end of June, but played so well that he's likely to start 2015 in high-A, which would be appropriate for his age (he'll turn 20 in May) and experience (second full calendar year in pro ball). He's an explosive talent, with power and speed, and so far has shown a solid plan at the plate, enough so that the Pirates even played him in an exhibition game this spring.
33. Mark Appel, RHP, Houston Astros
Appel is one of the few players on this list who has changed in a material way this spring; he's been sitting in the mid-90s, regularly hitting 98, with a plus slider, and most importantly with a slide-step delivery that should help mitigate his problems pitching with men on base. I'm not quite ready to call him a future ace again, but this is about as positive a set of signs as the Astros could get.
34. Jon Gray, RHP, Colorado Rockies
Gray has taken a small step backward, with a longer arm swing that eliminates any deception he might have had in his delivery, along with slightly reduced stuff this spring. Hitters will be all over his four-seamer if he can't find a way to hide the ball better or to get some sink or plane on the pitch, at which point he's more of a big, durable, low-ceiling prospect rather than the potential No. 1 or No. 2 starter he was coming out of Oklahoma. Shortening that arm stroke would help.
35. Jorge Alfaro, C, Texas Rangers
Contain your surprise, please, but Alfaro didn't draw a walk while playing for the major league team this spring, which is right in line with his track record of not taking the occasional pitch. However, he can still do a lot of other things well, including make contact, hit for power, throw and catch. Like Mazara, Alfaro finished at Double-A Frisco for a few weeks and should start the season there. As aggressive as the Rangers tend to be with prospects, Alfaro might be the one guy they put on the slow track, given all of the less obvious aspects to catching that he needs to work on, and his propensity to swing at every pitch thrown in his vicinity.
36. Aaron Blair, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Blair is the least heralded of the Diamondbacks' trio of top starting pitching prospects, but can hang with Shipley and Bradley pitch for pitch. After a successful stint with the major league club this spring (including the starting assignment in this past Sunday's exhibition game in Hermosillo, Mexico), he will be on the short list for a call-up if there's a need for another starter.
37. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Taillon is still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery -- on target for a midseason return to action -- which could put him in the major league bullpen by the tail end of the season, depending on how fast his stuff returns.
38. Tyler Kolek, RHP, Miami Marlins
Kolek continues to work on his off-speed stuff, sitting mid-90s this spring for the Marlins in minor league camp, with the potential to start the year in low-A. He's got the size and velocity, but needs work on his breaking ball, developing a change, and generally moving from "thrower" to "pitcher."
39. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, Kansas City Royals
The Royals' shortstop of the future is still just 19 years old and probably ticketed for Double-A, especially since the team brought him to big league camp and gave him a few at-bats. He has to continue to get stronger, and I'd like to see him focus less on bunting to get on base and more on trying to spray the field with line drives.
40. Jesse Winker, LF, Cincinnati Reds
Marlon Byrd should be just a one-year filler for the Reds in left, with Winker likely ready to step into the role for 2016. However, another high-OBP year for Winker should put him in line for a September call-up, especially if he can retain his power output after leaving hitter-friendly Bakersfield.
41. Michael Conforto, LF, New York Mets
The praise a prospect receives from pro scouts in his first spring training can be misleading -- I remember the plaudits for Justin Smoak back in March 2009 -- but I heard nothing but raves for Conforto in his brief time in major league camp. Let's hope this helps convince the Mets to move him more aggressively; as a highly polished product of a major Division I college program (Oregon State), Conforto should be able to go to Double-A right now.
42. Hunter Renfroe, OF, San Diego Padres
One of the Padres' three “untouchables” in their unending trade talks this winter -- along with catcher Austin Hedges and right-handed starter Matt Wisler -- Renfroe should be ready to take over in right field in 2016, with the biggest challenge for him keeping his contact rate up as he returns to Double-A this spring.
43. Dalton Pompey, CF, Toronto Blue Jays
Pompey appears set to be the Jays' full-time center fielder on Opening Day, a job for which his glove is certainly ready. I think his bat is advanced enough for him to be able to contribute on offense as well, as his at-bats are so good that he should still post a solid OBP even if he's not making as much hard contact as he will after another year or so of reps.
44. Nick Gordon, SS, Minnesota Twins
Gordon has long had the hit tool and the instincts to project as an every-day player in the majors, but adding about a dozen pounds of muscle this offseason helps address a critical question about his strength and durability, the same question that has long dogged his brother Dee, now with the Marlins. The Twins tend not to push their prospects quickly through the low minors, but I think Nick's experience level and draft status should have him starting at low-A, as Byron Buxton did two years ago.
45. Kevin Plawecki, C, New York Mets
Plawecki could make Travis d'Arnaud expendable, or could be trade bait himself, especially if he destroys PCL pitching on his return to Las Vegas this spring. He's a plus defensive catcher who doesn't have d'Arnaud's lengthy injury history, and it's likely that Plawecki will get his shot with the major league team by midyear, after which they'll be better equipped to decide how to manage both assets.
46. Andrew Susac, C, San Francisco Giants
The Giants optioned Susac to Triple-A a few days ago, which will get him regular at-bats but makes the major league club worse with Hector Sanchez as the backup to Buster Posey. Susac is their top prospect, and the wrist inflammation that bothered him earlier in March seems to be behind him, so they're a better team with him backing up Posey and even allowing Posey to take some games at other positions to keep his bat in the lineup.
47. Sean Newcomb, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
Newcomb made two appearances in major league camp and impressed the Angels with his stuff and confidence on the mound, but needs more work on command and experience facing better hitters than he did while at the University of Hartford. He could be a fast mover depending on how quickly he adapts, especially because the Angels have an acute need for starting pitching depth.
48. Ryan McMahon, 3B, Colorado Rockies
McMahon, like Dahl, will face a big test moving out of hitter-friendly Asheville this year, but both players are outstanding athletes who've shown the ability to make adjustments on the fly. The bigger challenge for McMahon will be improving his recognition of off-speed stuff from lefties, and adjusting to cover the outer third of the plate when they spin breaking balls away from him. His defense is already an asset, and he has middle-of-the-order upside with the bat.
49. Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Marcus Stroman's devastating injury created an opportunity for Sanchez to return to the rotation, and catcher Russell Martin is trying to get Sanchez to extend better over his front side, which will help make his breaking stuff sharper and keep his fastball from catching too much of the heart of the strike zone. He has Norris-level upside if he can make those adjustments and reincorporate his changeup into his repertoire.
50. Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Foltynewicz struggled in major league camp, allowing 22 baserunners while recording 23 outs, although that at least made the decision to return him to Triple-A for a second season easier. He continues to show a plus fastball and a curveball that flashes plus, but he's getting caught between a curve and a slider too often, and someone has to temper the pace of his delivery so he can throw more strikes.