Post by Athletics GM (Paul) on Apr 11, 2015 15:42:10 GMT -5
This year's draft class is very weak at the top -- the worst in that regard since at least 2000 -- with very little safe college starting pitching and a complete dearth of catchers.
The high school pitching crop is lighter than normal, but there are a lot of middle infielders, especially in the college ranks, most of whom are going to fly off the board in June. Here is my still-somewhat-early take on the top 50 prospects in this class; I'll expand the list to 100 names in a few more weeks. The profiles were written by Christopher Crawford and Eric Longenhagen.
1. Brendan Rodgers, SS, Lake Mary (Fla.) High School
Rodgers has one of the draft's top hit tools, along with some power, a good approach, very good hands, solid range and a plus arm. He's a no-doubt shortstop for me, despite being a below-average runner, and the only negative -- if you can call it that -- is that he's a bit old for a high school senior, turning 19 two months after draft day. In a class that's light on top, he is one of the highest-floor guys to still have some star potential.
2. Kevin Newman, SS, Arizona
He stays at short, has hit everywhere he's played (including two summers leading the Cape Cod League in batting average) and is a plus runner. He doesn't have any power, but his wide stance may be the reason, and closing it could unlock some doubles power in no time.
3. Dansby Swanson, SS, Vanderbilt
He probably stays at short, although it's not as certain as the two guys above him, with a hit tool that's also a tick lower than either guy but with more power at present than Newman has. He is also an above-average runner with a very high baseball IQ, coming from one of the country's best college programs.
4. Dillon Tate, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Tate has incredible stuff, hitting 94-98 mph on his best days with a plus or better slider, and he is throwing a lot more strikes this year than he has in the past, making the preseason decision (quickly reversed) to put him in the Gauchos' bullpen look even dumber in hindsight. That said, it's not a great delivery, and he doesn't have much present command, with some teams still wondering if he can be effective enough to remain a starter. I think you have to bet on the upside of the stuff, especially in a draft without a no-doubt ace prospect in college or high school.
5. Kolby Allard, LHP, San Clemente (Calif.) High School
Allard is out for two months with a stress reaction in his lower back, but before the injury took place, he showed the same plus curveball and easy delivery that he'd shown last summer. He's a little undersized, but strong enough to start as long as he can stay healthy.
6. Ian Happ, OF/2B, Cincinnati
Happ has played the whole season despite having hernia surgery right before it began, and he probably won't show scouts the full range of his abilities all spring. But he is hitting for average, getting on base and hitting for power (he and teammate Ryan Noda have hit 14 of the Bearcats' 18 homers). Happ also raked on the Cape, and he has played second base well enough in the past that I think he can become a fringy defender there in pro ball.
7. Alex Bregman, SS, LSU
Bregman might be the best pure hitter for contact and average in the entire draft, with outstanding hand-eye coordination and a very disciplined approach; as of this writing, he has more homers (seven) than strikeouts (six). Other than the hit tool, he's mostly average or slightly below it everywhere else, a shortstop who will end up at second in pro ball and won't likely be a big home run producer. He's such a safe future big leaguer that I can't imagine he gets out of the top 10.
8. Walker Buehler, RHP, Vanderbilt
Buehler missed a few starts early in the season with elbow soreness, but he came back as strong as he was on the Cape last summer, reaching 92-95 mph with an above-average slider and a ton of strikes. His build is slight for a big league starter and he might not have a true plus pitch, but he's very competitive and pitches aggressively, well above his stuff.
9. Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Louisville
Funkhouser had never had any pitching instruction before matriculating at Louisville, and in many ways he is still raw material for a good pro pitching coach: He boasts size, arm strength (sitting 90-94 mph most outings), the makings of several off-speed pitches and a workable delivery. His command is below-average today, but there's more growth potential here than with most college starters in this class.
10. Mike Nikorak, RHP, Stroudsburg (Pa.) High School
Nikorak's season just got underway, but he has already impressed with improved velocity and a stronger body than what he showed scouts last summer at various showcases, including the Metropolitan Classic tournament hosted by the Mets in late August. Nikorak's arm works well, and he has the makings of three above-average pitches, along with a good build that looks well-suited to a starter's workload.
11. Daz Cameron, CF, Eagle's Landing Christian Academy (McDonough, Ga.)
Cameron, the son of longtime MLB center fielder Mike, has a lot of above-average tools without anything clearly plus. He handles center field well with above-average speed, showing some power but not a ton, handling the bat well but lacking a hit tool like Rodgers'. He has one of the more balanced overall packages as well, as the twin pedigrees of his father's tremendous career and his own time attending showcases, even as an underclassman. He's one of a few names, along with Rodgers and Tate, I've heard as possible first overall picks.
12. Nick Plummer, OF, Brother Rice High School (Lathrup Village, Mich.)
Plummer was the big surprise of last August, blowing up at the East Coast Pro Showcase and Area Code Games with a simple, quick swing that generated hard line-drive contact and power from his 5-foot-10, 200-pound body. The Kentucky commit likely ends up in right field in pro ball, with above-average arm strength but not quite the speed for center. His school plays in a league where every hitter starts with a 1-1 count -- that is, it takes three balls for a walk and two strikes for a strikeout.
13. Trenton Clark, OF, Richland High School (North Richland Hills, Texas)
Clark, like Plummer, is also a polished hit-first prospect who raked most of last summer against strong competition. Both are sub-6-foot, left-handed hitting outfielders, with Clark bringing more speed and experience but less power.
14. Kyle Tucker, OF, Plant High School (Tampa)
Tucker is another pure-hitter prospect, with the potential to hit for average and power, not as advanced as the college bats ahead of him and lacking the electricity of Plummer, but boosted by a longer track record and a history of facing high-quality prep pitching in Florida.
15. Mike Matuella, RHP, Duke
Matuella had potential to be the No. 1 overall pick had he stayed healthy all year, but he caught the "elbow flu" and is done until at least next March. When healthy, he'd touch 97 mph with a plus slider, but was never able to get it going this spring, and will end his collegiate career with a total of 141 innings pitched across three springs and summers.
16. Kep Brown, RF, Wando High School (Mt. Pleasant, S.C.)
Brown has some of the best right-handed power in this draft, to all fields, even going the other way. He's a good athlete with an above-average arm, but there are real concerns about his pitch recognition and ability to maintain solid contact rates as he moves up the ladder.
17. Donnie Everett, RHP, Clarksville (Ten.) High School
Everett has hit 100 mph this spring, and even on off days, he has been 92-96. He doesn't have a present breaking ball, and his delivery isn't clean and he doesn't always throw strikes … but he has hit 100, and there's enough athleticism and feel (including a changeup he never uses in games) that he is worth taking high, even with all of the question marks.
18. Dakota Chalmers, RHP, North Forsyth High School (Cumming, Ga.)
Chalmers has reached 98 mph this spring, and frequently works from 92-96 with a power breaking ball in the upper 70s. There's effort in the delivery, including some head violence, raising concerns about long-term health and fastball command. He offers some projection and, despite the effort, there's natural looseness to his arm action, with very good extension out in front.
19. Nate Kirby, LHP, Virginia
Kirby is a solid college lefty who can show you an above-average slider one outing and an above-average changeup the next, sitting mostly 88-92 mph with a little variance outing to outing. But the command and control aren't great, and I don't see a ton of deception or a wipeout pitch yet.
20. Garrett Whitley, CF, Niskayuna (N.Y.) High School
Whitley is an athletic outfielder with a quick bat who had no trouble adjusting to the harder velocities he saw last summer at various showcases, including the Area Code Games and the Metropolitan Classic. He's strong enough for at least doubles power, but quick enough to have a chance to profile in center field, with the bat speed and hand-eye coordination to hit for average even when facing consistently better pitching in pro ball.
21. Cody Ponce, RHP, Cal Poly-Pomona
Ponce can sit 92-94 mph and touch 96, with both a curveball and slider, neither a consistently average pitch yet, with a great 6-foot-5, 235-pound frame. He missed several weeks with a “hamstring” injury that turned out to be the "hamstring" connected to the shoulder joint, and has only just returned to the rotation, showing some signs of rust when colleague Eric Longenhagen saw him recently.
22. Drew Finley, RHP, Rancho Bernardo High School (San Diego)
Finley set a California Interscholastic Federation record on Wednesday by striking out 20 batters in a seven-inning game, although one wonders how he let that last guy get away. He works with an average fastball and plus curveball, getting a lot of deception and great extension out in front with a very clean delivery. Power arms tend to win out on draft day, but Finley leads a group of clean, projectable high school arms (along with Juan Hillman, Tristan Beck and Peter Lambert) who represent good value a little farther down the board.
23. John Harris, RHP, Missouri State
Harris will show four pitches, with a straight four-seamer up to 95 mph and an above-average slider and change, working with a clean delivery and a loose, easy arm. He's been dominant this year for the Bears, who have quietly become one of the best mid-major baseball schools in the country.
24. Ke'Bryan Hayes, SS, Concordia Lutheran High School (Tomball, Texas)
The son of former big league third baseman Charlie, Ke'Bryan has great actions at shortstop that make up for a lack of foot speed, and if he can't stay at short he projects as a plus-plus defender at third.
25. Brady Aiken, LHP, IMG Academy (Bradenton, Fla.)
The great unknown in this draft, Aiken had to undergo Tommy John surgery after just 12 competitive pitches this spring, so his status on draft boards will be up to team doctors as much as it'll be up to scouting directors. Whatever their appraisals of his long-term health, Aiken would still be my No. 1 overall player if there were zero concerns about his elbow.
The rest of the top 50
26. James Kaprelian, RHP, UCLA
27. Juan Hillman, LHP, Olympia High School (Orlando, Fla.)
28. Jalen Miller, SS, Riverwood High School (Atlanta)
29. Kyler Murray, SS, Allen (Texas) High School
30. Jacob Nix, RHP, IMG Academy (Bradenton, Fla.)
31. Tristan Beck, RHP, Corona (Calif.) High School (profile to come)
32. Mitchell Hansen, OF, Plano (Texas) High School
33. Cornelius Randolph, 1B, Griffin (Ga.) High School
34. Phil Bickford, RHP, College of Southern Nevada
35. Chad Smith, CF, South Gwinnett High School (Snellville, Fla.)
36. Alonzo Jones, IF, Columbus (Ga.) High School
37. Ashe Russell, RHP, Cathedral High School (Indianapolis)
38. Joe McCarthy, OF, Virginia
39. Tyler Jay, LHP, Illinois
40. Jacob Woodford, RHP, Plant High School (Tampa)
41. Richie Martin, SS, Florida
42. Chris Betts, C, Wilson High School (Long Beach, Calif.)
43. Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt
44. Triston McKenzie, RHP, Royal Palm Beach (Fla.) High School
45. Nick Neidert, RHP, Peachtree Ridge High School (Suwanee, Ga.)
46. Beau Burrows, RHP, Weatherford (Texas) High School
47. Justin Hooper, LHP, De La Salle High School (Concord, Calif.)
48. Scott Kingery, 2B, Arizona
49. Blake Trahan, SS, Louisiana-Lafayette
50. Jahmai Jones, 2B, Wesleyan School (Norcross, Ga.)
The high school pitching crop is lighter than normal, but there are a lot of middle infielders, especially in the college ranks, most of whom are going to fly off the board in June. Here is my still-somewhat-early take on the top 50 prospects in this class; I'll expand the list to 100 names in a few more weeks. The profiles were written by Christopher Crawford and Eric Longenhagen.
1. Brendan Rodgers, SS, Lake Mary (Fla.) High School
Rodgers has one of the draft's top hit tools, along with some power, a good approach, very good hands, solid range and a plus arm. He's a no-doubt shortstop for me, despite being a below-average runner, and the only negative -- if you can call it that -- is that he's a bit old for a high school senior, turning 19 two months after draft day. In a class that's light on top, he is one of the highest-floor guys to still have some star potential.
2. Kevin Newman, SS, Arizona
He stays at short, has hit everywhere he's played (including two summers leading the Cape Cod League in batting average) and is a plus runner. He doesn't have any power, but his wide stance may be the reason, and closing it could unlock some doubles power in no time.
3. Dansby Swanson, SS, Vanderbilt
He probably stays at short, although it's not as certain as the two guys above him, with a hit tool that's also a tick lower than either guy but with more power at present than Newman has. He is also an above-average runner with a very high baseball IQ, coming from one of the country's best college programs.
4. Dillon Tate, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Tate has incredible stuff, hitting 94-98 mph on his best days with a plus or better slider, and he is throwing a lot more strikes this year than he has in the past, making the preseason decision (quickly reversed) to put him in the Gauchos' bullpen look even dumber in hindsight. That said, it's not a great delivery, and he doesn't have much present command, with some teams still wondering if he can be effective enough to remain a starter. I think you have to bet on the upside of the stuff, especially in a draft without a no-doubt ace prospect in college or high school.
5. Kolby Allard, LHP, San Clemente (Calif.) High School
Allard is out for two months with a stress reaction in his lower back, but before the injury took place, he showed the same plus curveball and easy delivery that he'd shown last summer. He's a little undersized, but strong enough to start as long as he can stay healthy.
6. Ian Happ, OF/2B, Cincinnati
Happ has played the whole season despite having hernia surgery right before it began, and he probably won't show scouts the full range of his abilities all spring. But he is hitting for average, getting on base and hitting for power (he and teammate Ryan Noda have hit 14 of the Bearcats' 18 homers). Happ also raked on the Cape, and he has played second base well enough in the past that I think he can become a fringy defender there in pro ball.
7. Alex Bregman, SS, LSU
Bregman might be the best pure hitter for contact and average in the entire draft, with outstanding hand-eye coordination and a very disciplined approach; as of this writing, he has more homers (seven) than strikeouts (six). Other than the hit tool, he's mostly average or slightly below it everywhere else, a shortstop who will end up at second in pro ball and won't likely be a big home run producer. He's such a safe future big leaguer that I can't imagine he gets out of the top 10.
8. Walker Buehler, RHP, Vanderbilt
Buehler missed a few starts early in the season with elbow soreness, but he came back as strong as he was on the Cape last summer, reaching 92-95 mph with an above-average slider and a ton of strikes. His build is slight for a big league starter and he might not have a true plus pitch, but he's very competitive and pitches aggressively, well above his stuff.
9. Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Louisville
Funkhouser had never had any pitching instruction before matriculating at Louisville, and in many ways he is still raw material for a good pro pitching coach: He boasts size, arm strength (sitting 90-94 mph most outings), the makings of several off-speed pitches and a workable delivery. His command is below-average today, but there's more growth potential here than with most college starters in this class.
10. Mike Nikorak, RHP, Stroudsburg (Pa.) High School
Nikorak's season just got underway, but he has already impressed with improved velocity and a stronger body than what he showed scouts last summer at various showcases, including the Metropolitan Classic tournament hosted by the Mets in late August. Nikorak's arm works well, and he has the makings of three above-average pitches, along with a good build that looks well-suited to a starter's workload.
11. Daz Cameron, CF, Eagle's Landing Christian Academy (McDonough, Ga.)
Cameron, the son of longtime MLB center fielder Mike, has a lot of above-average tools without anything clearly plus. He handles center field well with above-average speed, showing some power but not a ton, handling the bat well but lacking a hit tool like Rodgers'. He has one of the more balanced overall packages as well, as the twin pedigrees of his father's tremendous career and his own time attending showcases, even as an underclassman. He's one of a few names, along with Rodgers and Tate, I've heard as possible first overall picks.
12. Nick Plummer, OF, Brother Rice High School (Lathrup Village, Mich.)
Plummer was the big surprise of last August, blowing up at the East Coast Pro Showcase and Area Code Games with a simple, quick swing that generated hard line-drive contact and power from his 5-foot-10, 200-pound body. The Kentucky commit likely ends up in right field in pro ball, with above-average arm strength but not quite the speed for center. His school plays in a league where every hitter starts with a 1-1 count -- that is, it takes three balls for a walk and two strikes for a strikeout.
13. Trenton Clark, OF, Richland High School (North Richland Hills, Texas)
Clark, like Plummer, is also a polished hit-first prospect who raked most of last summer against strong competition. Both are sub-6-foot, left-handed hitting outfielders, with Clark bringing more speed and experience but less power.
14. Kyle Tucker, OF, Plant High School (Tampa)
Tucker is another pure-hitter prospect, with the potential to hit for average and power, not as advanced as the college bats ahead of him and lacking the electricity of Plummer, but boosted by a longer track record and a history of facing high-quality prep pitching in Florida.
15. Mike Matuella, RHP, Duke
Matuella had potential to be the No. 1 overall pick had he stayed healthy all year, but he caught the "elbow flu" and is done until at least next March. When healthy, he'd touch 97 mph with a plus slider, but was never able to get it going this spring, and will end his collegiate career with a total of 141 innings pitched across three springs and summers.
16. Kep Brown, RF, Wando High School (Mt. Pleasant, S.C.)
Brown has some of the best right-handed power in this draft, to all fields, even going the other way. He's a good athlete with an above-average arm, but there are real concerns about his pitch recognition and ability to maintain solid contact rates as he moves up the ladder.
17. Donnie Everett, RHP, Clarksville (Ten.) High School
Everett has hit 100 mph this spring, and even on off days, he has been 92-96. He doesn't have a present breaking ball, and his delivery isn't clean and he doesn't always throw strikes … but he has hit 100, and there's enough athleticism and feel (including a changeup he never uses in games) that he is worth taking high, even with all of the question marks.
18. Dakota Chalmers, RHP, North Forsyth High School (Cumming, Ga.)
Chalmers has reached 98 mph this spring, and frequently works from 92-96 with a power breaking ball in the upper 70s. There's effort in the delivery, including some head violence, raising concerns about long-term health and fastball command. He offers some projection and, despite the effort, there's natural looseness to his arm action, with very good extension out in front.
19. Nate Kirby, LHP, Virginia
Kirby is a solid college lefty who can show you an above-average slider one outing and an above-average changeup the next, sitting mostly 88-92 mph with a little variance outing to outing. But the command and control aren't great, and I don't see a ton of deception or a wipeout pitch yet.
20. Garrett Whitley, CF, Niskayuna (N.Y.) High School
Whitley is an athletic outfielder with a quick bat who had no trouble adjusting to the harder velocities he saw last summer at various showcases, including the Area Code Games and the Metropolitan Classic. He's strong enough for at least doubles power, but quick enough to have a chance to profile in center field, with the bat speed and hand-eye coordination to hit for average even when facing consistently better pitching in pro ball.
21. Cody Ponce, RHP, Cal Poly-Pomona
Ponce can sit 92-94 mph and touch 96, with both a curveball and slider, neither a consistently average pitch yet, with a great 6-foot-5, 235-pound frame. He missed several weeks with a “hamstring” injury that turned out to be the "hamstring" connected to the shoulder joint, and has only just returned to the rotation, showing some signs of rust when colleague Eric Longenhagen saw him recently.
22. Drew Finley, RHP, Rancho Bernardo High School (San Diego)
Finley set a California Interscholastic Federation record on Wednesday by striking out 20 batters in a seven-inning game, although one wonders how he let that last guy get away. He works with an average fastball and plus curveball, getting a lot of deception and great extension out in front with a very clean delivery. Power arms tend to win out on draft day, but Finley leads a group of clean, projectable high school arms (along with Juan Hillman, Tristan Beck and Peter Lambert) who represent good value a little farther down the board.
23. John Harris, RHP, Missouri State
Harris will show four pitches, with a straight four-seamer up to 95 mph and an above-average slider and change, working with a clean delivery and a loose, easy arm. He's been dominant this year for the Bears, who have quietly become one of the best mid-major baseball schools in the country.
24. Ke'Bryan Hayes, SS, Concordia Lutheran High School (Tomball, Texas)
The son of former big league third baseman Charlie, Ke'Bryan has great actions at shortstop that make up for a lack of foot speed, and if he can't stay at short he projects as a plus-plus defender at third.
25. Brady Aiken, LHP, IMG Academy (Bradenton, Fla.)
The great unknown in this draft, Aiken had to undergo Tommy John surgery after just 12 competitive pitches this spring, so his status on draft boards will be up to team doctors as much as it'll be up to scouting directors. Whatever their appraisals of his long-term health, Aiken would still be my No. 1 overall player if there were zero concerns about his elbow.
The rest of the top 50
26. James Kaprelian, RHP, UCLA
27. Juan Hillman, LHP, Olympia High School (Orlando, Fla.)
28. Jalen Miller, SS, Riverwood High School (Atlanta)
29. Kyler Murray, SS, Allen (Texas) High School
30. Jacob Nix, RHP, IMG Academy (Bradenton, Fla.)
31. Tristan Beck, RHP, Corona (Calif.) High School (profile to come)
32. Mitchell Hansen, OF, Plano (Texas) High School
33. Cornelius Randolph, 1B, Griffin (Ga.) High School
34. Phil Bickford, RHP, College of Southern Nevada
35. Chad Smith, CF, South Gwinnett High School (Snellville, Fla.)
36. Alonzo Jones, IF, Columbus (Ga.) High School
37. Ashe Russell, RHP, Cathedral High School (Indianapolis)
38. Joe McCarthy, OF, Virginia
39. Tyler Jay, LHP, Illinois
40. Jacob Woodford, RHP, Plant High School (Tampa)
41. Richie Martin, SS, Florida
42. Chris Betts, C, Wilson High School (Long Beach, Calif.)
43. Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt
44. Triston McKenzie, RHP, Royal Palm Beach (Fla.) High School
45. Nick Neidert, RHP, Peachtree Ridge High School (Suwanee, Ga.)
46. Beau Burrows, RHP, Weatherford (Texas) High School
47. Justin Hooper, LHP, De La Salle High School (Concord, Calif.)
48. Scott Kingery, 2B, Arizona
49. Blake Trahan, SS, Louisiana-Lafayette
50. Jahmai Jones, 2B, Wesleyan School (Norcross, Ga.)