Post by Brewers GM (Marty) on May 22, 2015 22:02:16 GMT -5
1Dansby SwansonSCHOOL: VanderbiltHT: 6-0WT: 190POS: SS
Analysis: The Diamondbacks have looked at a ton of players this spring, but two things are becoming clearer: They're focused primarily on Swanson and Dillon Tate for this pick, and they've already decided internally whom they're taking (I've heard from two independent sources that they have settled on their guy, but of course won't disclose it to anyone, not even the player in question). There's also a rumor that they're considering Carson Fulmer at a significant discount. The Snakes don't pick again until 43, so while they may be able to save a million or two when signing whomever they take at 1-1, they will have a hard time maneuvering another player they like all the way to their next pick.
PLAYER CARD
2Alex BregmanSCHOOL: LSUHT: 6-0WT: 190POS: SS
Analysis: The Astros are taking two hitters at 2 and 5, and would love to get Swanson here. For whatever reason, they're less interested in Brendan Rodgers (my top player) than most clubs, citing underwhelming performance this spring (even though his performance last summer was outstanding).
PLAYER CARD
3Dillon TateSCHOOL: UC Santa BarbaraHT: 6-2WT: 185POS: RHP
Analysis: The Rockies would love to take a pitcher here, but I imagine they'll have quite a debate internally if both Tate and Rodgers get to this pick. I'd heard they were interested in Mike Nikorak, but he hasn't had a strong spring, especially in terms of control, and would be a reach up here.
PLAYER CARD
4Brendan RodgersSCHOOL: Lake Mary (Fla.) High SchoolHT: 6-0WT: 195POS: SS
Analysis: The Rangers would probably take Walker Buehler here if Rodgers and Tate goes ahead of them, and I've mostly heard them on college players for this pick. Their usual philosophy of taking higher-upside prep players is more likely to come into play with later picks.
PLAYER CARD
5Kyle TuckerSCHOOL: Plant High School (Tampa)HT: 6-4WT: 175POS: OF
Analysis: I've also heard the Astros with Trenton Clark and Daz Cameron here, and if they get Swanson at pick 2, they could come back and take Bregman, but it's more likely they take a prep bat. They could also take Daz Cameron at 2 and probably still get Bregman here, as opposed to taking Cameron here and possibly having to pay him over slot.
PLAYER CARD
6Kolby AllardSCHOOL: San Clemente (Calif.) High SchoolHT: 6-0WT: 175POS: LHP
Analysis: If Allard's medicals check out -- he had a stress reaction in his lower back but was shut down before it progressed to a fracture -- he seems like the Twins' target. I've heard them with Cameron, although rumor has it he wants more than the slot number here.
PLAYER CARD
7Daz CameronSCHOOL: Eagles Landing HS (McDonough, Ga.)HT: 6-1WT: 190POS: OF
Analysis: If the Diamondbacks take Tate, the Astros would take Swanson, and the Red Sox might get their top target, Bregman. They also like Andrew Benintendi as a backup to the backup, and if they are comfortable with Brady Aiken's medicals they might end up taking him.
PLAYER CARD
8Carson FulmerSCHOOL: VanderbiltHT: 5-11WT: 195POS: RHP
Analysis: The White Sox appear to be highest on Fulmer and Tyler Jay, either of whom could pitch in a major league bullpen this fall. I've been told Fulmer doesn't get past here.
PLAYER CARD
9Trenton ClarkSCHOOL: Richland HS (North Richland Hills, Texas)HT: 6-0WT: 200POS: OF
Analysis: I've also heard the Cubs with Garrett Whitley, Andrew Benintendi, Jon Harris and Carson Fulmer, and possibly Cameron too. They may replicate their so-far successful strategy from last year, taking a bat they love with their first pick and going over slot for arms in later rounds, such as 6-foot-7 prep lefty Bryan Hudson from Alton, Ill., who has one of the better curveballs in the draft.
PLAYER CARD
10Walker BuehlerSCHOOL: VanderbiltHT: 6-1WT: 160POS: RHP
Analysis: I've heard them with Kevin Newman, No. 2 on my big board, and while I always argue that teams should target the best player available, with J.P. Crawford apparently their shortstop of the foreseeable future Newman's value to the Phils might be blunted. They're also among the teams on high school catchers Chris Betts and Tyler Stephenson.
PLAYER CARD
11Tyler JaySCHOOL: IllinoisHT: 6-1WT: 175POS: LHP
Analysis: Jay might have gone in the top 5, even 1-1, had he started all spring, but national scouts and directors haven't had enough looks at him because he's worked in the bullpen and has even had one weekend series in which he didn't appear. The Reds appear to be highest on Jay and Carson Fulmer, both of whom could pitch in a major-league bullpen this fall, although Jay has a slight advantage there as he will throw about half as many innings as Fulmer will before signing.
PLAYER CARD
12Garrett WhitleySCHOOL: Niskayuna (N.Y.) High SchoolHT: 6-1WT: 195POS: OF
Analysis: Tucker also probably stops here, as would Clark. This is Phil Bickford's first possible landing spot. If the premium high-school bats are all gone, they might switch to a college hitter like Ian Happ or Newman.
PLAYER CARD
13Andrew BenintendiSCHOOL: ArkansasHT: 5-10WT: 180POS: OF
Analysis: The Rays also appear to be high on Whitley and Clark, and may be the highest possible spot for college arms such as Kyle Funkhouser, Harris or James Kaprielian.
PLAYER CARD
14Tyler StephensonSCHOOL: Kennesaw Mountain HS (Kennesaw, Ga.)HT: 6-4WT: 215POS: C
Analysis: I expect Atlanta to take largely prep players, and of course they're being linked to every kid in Georgia other than Cameron; Cornelius Randolph might be their preference here if he gets this far. I also believe they're on Jalen Miller for their second or third pick.
PLAYER CARD
15Kevin NewmanSCHOOL: ArizonaHT: 6-1WT: 180POS: SS
Analysis: I've heard the Brewers with Tristan Beck, probably for their second pick, and perhaps Ke'Bryan Hayes if he gets that far. Scouting director Ray Montgomery had success in Arizona by taking whatever fell to him in the draft, like Braden Shipley, and I believe the Brewers are hoping for a similar windfall here.
PLAYER CARD
16Chris BettsSCHOOL: Wilson High School (Long Beach, Calif.)HT: 6-2WT: 220POS: C
Analysis: I've heard the Yanks with Whitley; Donny Everett, who might be available again at 30 as an over-slot guy; as well as Drew Finley at that later pick. This is my own speculation, but I wonder if they're a landing spot for Cameron if he's looking for an over-slot deal.
PLAYER CARD
17Ian HappSCHOOL: CincinnatiHT: 6-0WT: 205POS: 2B
Analysis: Cleveland tends to be a true "best player available" team, landing Brad Zimmer last year when they didn't expect him to get to them in the first place. Happ or Newman would fit that bill here, or Jon Harris, with Nikorak as something of a longshot.
PLAYER CARD
18Jon HarrisSCHOOL: Missouri StateHT: 6-4WT: 175POS: RHP
Analysis: I think sometimes folks just assume the Giants are taking a starter, since they've had success with them, even though they've taken a bat in the first round four times since I started doing these (Buster Posey, Joe Panik, Gary Brown, Christian Arroyo). I've also heard them linked to Cody Ponce and Nikorak.
PLAYER CARD
19Cornelius RandolphSCHOOL: Griffin (Ga.) High SchoolHT: 6-1WT: 200POS: SS
Analysis: The Pirates might be the high team on Ponce, who has finished strong after a midseason bout of shoulder soreness. They were also very high on Joe McCarthy, who missed most of the spring with a back problem, coming out of last summer.
PLAYER CARD
20Donnie DeweesSCHOOL: North FloridaHT: 6-0WT: 190POS: OF
Analysis: Oakland's been very heavy on Dewees of late, comparing him to Brett Gardner, and active on Bickford and USD shortstop Kyle Holder.
PLAYER CARD
21Phil BickfordSCHOOL: College of Southern NevadaHT: 6-0WT: 200POS: RHP
Analysis: The Royals had great success with their first-round pick last year, taking TCU lefty starter Brandon Finnegan and using him in their major-league bullpen in September and the playoffs; they could do the same with Bickford, who can reach the upper 90s in relief, this fall.
PLAYER CARD
22Kyle FunkhouserSCHOOL: LouisvilleHT: 6-2WT: 220POS: RHP
Analysis: I've also heard the Tigers with Jacob Nix, Ashe Russell, Hayes, and Stephenson, as well as possibly Jahmai Jones with their second pick.
PLAYER CARD
23Nate KirbySCHOOL: VirginiaHT: 6-2WT: 185POS: LHP
The Cardinals are one of a few teams with two extra picks (one via the competitive balance lottery, one for failing to sign their third-rounder last year), so they have the flexibility to go well over on a player who falls here but wants a top-10 bonus.
PLAYER CARD
24Ke'Bryan HayesSCHOOL: Concordia Lutheran HS (Tomball, Texas)HT: 6-1WT: 205POS: 3B
They're among teams rumored to be interested in Mike Matuella, the Duke right-hander who missed almost the entire spring after Tommy John surgery, and was in consideration at 1-1 had he stayed healthy and pitched well.
PLAYER CARD
25Cody PonceSCHOOL: Cal Poly PomonaHT: 6-6WT: 240POS: RHP
Analysis: The Orioles are also in on Hayes, one of the draft's premium defensive players.
PLAYER CARD
26Scott KingerySCHOOL: ArizonaHT: 5-11WT: 175POS: 2B
Analysis: I've heard the Angels are mostly focused on college players here.
PLAYER CARD
27James KaprielianSCHOOL: UCLAHT: 6-4WT: 200POS: RHP
Analysis: I've had a few scouts tell me they think Kaprielian goes in the teens or early 20s, but if some higher-rated college arms like Kirby, Funkhouser and Ponce slide a little into the back half of the round, that may push Kaprielian into the sandwich round, where I know the Rockies like him, as well as Spencer Nevin (son of Phil).
PLAYER CARD
28Drew FinleySCHOOL: Rancho Bernardo High School (San Diego)HT: 6-3WT: 200POS: RHP
Analysis: Finley's market probably starts here and runs to the top of the second round. Atlanta is also on Nikorak and could take him here, pushing Finley to the Yanks at 30.
PLAYER CARD
29Eric JenkinsSCHOOL: West Columbus HS (Cerro Gordo, NC)HT: 6-2WT: 180POS: OF
Analysis: The Blue Jays are also on Richie Martin, Justin Maese and Brady Singer.
PLAYER CARD
30Mike NikorakSCHOOL: Stroudsburg (Pa.) High SchoolHT: 6-5WT: 205POS: RHP
Analysis: I also heard the Yankees connected with Everett/Finley, as mentioned above, as well as Jacob Nix, who probably goes in the 25-35 range.
PLAYER CARD
Analysis: The Diamondbacks have looked at a ton of players this spring, but two things are becoming clearer: They're focused primarily on Swanson and Dillon Tate for this pick, and they've already decided internally whom they're taking (I've heard from two independent sources that they have settled on their guy, but of course won't disclose it to anyone, not even the player in question). There's also a rumor that they're considering Carson Fulmer at a significant discount. The Snakes don't pick again until 43, so while they may be able to save a million or two when signing whomever they take at 1-1, they will have a hard time maneuvering another player they like all the way to their next pick.
PLAYER CARD
2Alex BregmanSCHOOL: LSUHT: 6-0WT: 190POS: SS
Analysis: The Astros are taking two hitters at 2 and 5, and would love to get Swanson here. For whatever reason, they're less interested in Brendan Rodgers (my top player) than most clubs, citing underwhelming performance this spring (even though his performance last summer was outstanding).
PLAYER CARD
3Dillon TateSCHOOL: UC Santa BarbaraHT: 6-2WT: 185POS: RHP
Analysis: The Rockies would love to take a pitcher here, but I imagine they'll have quite a debate internally if both Tate and Rodgers get to this pick. I'd heard they were interested in Mike Nikorak, but he hasn't had a strong spring, especially in terms of control, and would be a reach up here.
PLAYER CARD
4Brendan RodgersSCHOOL: Lake Mary (Fla.) High SchoolHT: 6-0WT: 195POS: SS
Analysis: The Rangers would probably take Walker Buehler here if Rodgers and Tate goes ahead of them, and I've mostly heard them on college players for this pick. Their usual philosophy of taking higher-upside prep players is more likely to come into play with later picks.
PLAYER CARD
5Kyle TuckerSCHOOL: Plant High School (Tampa)HT: 6-4WT: 175POS: OF
Analysis: I've also heard the Astros with Trenton Clark and Daz Cameron here, and if they get Swanson at pick 2, they could come back and take Bregman, but it's more likely they take a prep bat. They could also take Daz Cameron at 2 and probably still get Bregman here, as opposed to taking Cameron here and possibly having to pay him over slot.
PLAYER CARD
6Kolby AllardSCHOOL: San Clemente (Calif.) High SchoolHT: 6-0WT: 175POS: LHP
Analysis: If Allard's medicals check out -- he had a stress reaction in his lower back but was shut down before it progressed to a fracture -- he seems like the Twins' target. I've heard them with Cameron, although rumor has it he wants more than the slot number here.
PLAYER CARD
7Daz CameronSCHOOL: Eagles Landing HS (McDonough, Ga.)HT: 6-1WT: 190POS: OF
Analysis: If the Diamondbacks take Tate, the Astros would take Swanson, and the Red Sox might get their top target, Bregman. They also like Andrew Benintendi as a backup to the backup, and if they are comfortable with Brady Aiken's medicals they might end up taking him.
PLAYER CARD
8Carson FulmerSCHOOL: VanderbiltHT: 5-11WT: 195POS: RHP
Analysis: The White Sox appear to be highest on Fulmer and Tyler Jay, either of whom could pitch in a major league bullpen this fall. I've been told Fulmer doesn't get past here.
PLAYER CARD
9Trenton ClarkSCHOOL: Richland HS (North Richland Hills, Texas)HT: 6-0WT: 200POS: OF
Analysis: I've also heard the Cubs with Garrett Whitley, Andrew Benintendi, Jon Harris and Carson Fulmer, and possibly Cameron too. They may replicate their so-far successful strategy from last year, taking a bat they love with their first pick and going over slot for arms in later rounds, such as 6-foot-7 prep lefty Bryan Hudson from Alton, Ill., who has one of the better curveballs in the draft.
PLAYER CARD
10Walker BuehlerSCHOOL: VanderbiltHT: 6-1WT: 160POS: RHP
Analysis: I've heard them with Kevin Newman, No. 2 on my big board, and while I always argue that teams should target the best player available, with J.P. Crawford apparently their shortstop of the foreseeable future Newman's value to the Phils might be blunted. They're also among the teams on high school catchers Chris Betts and Tyler Stephenson.
PLAYER CARD
11Tyler JaySCHOOL: IllinoisHT: 6-1WT: 175POS: LHP
Analysis: Jay might have gone in the top 5, even 1-1, had he started all spring, but national scouts and directors haven't had enough looks at him because he's worked in the bullpen and has even had one weekend series in which he didn't appear. The Reds appear to be highest on Jay and Carson Fulmer, both of whom could pitch in a major-league bullpen this fall, although Jay has a slight advantage there as he will throw about half as many innings as Fulmer will before signing.
PLAYER CARD
12Garrett WhitleySCHOOL: Niskayuna (N.Y.) High SchoolHT: 6-1WT: 195POS: OF
Analysis: Tucker also probably stops here, as would Clark. This is Phil Bickford's first possible landing spot. If the premium high-school bats are all gone, they might switch to a college hitter like Ian Happ or Newman.
PLAYER CARD
13Andrew BenintendiSCHOOL: ArkansasHT: 5-10WT: 180POS: OF
Analysis: The Rays also appear to be high on Whitley and Clark, and may be the highest possible spot for college arms such as Kyle Funkhouser, Harris or James Kaprielian.
PLAYER CARD
14Tyler StephensonSCHOOL: Kennesaw Mountain HS (Kennesaw, Ga.)HT: 6-4WT: 215POS: C
Analysis: I expect Atlanta to take largely prep players, and of course they're being linked to every kid in Georgia other than Cameron; Cornelius Randolph might be their preference here if he gets this far. I also believe they're on Jalen Miller for their second or third pick.
PLAYER CARD
15Kevin NewmanSCHOOL: ArizonaHT: 6-1WT: 180POS: SS
Analysis: I've heard the Brewers with Tristan Beck, probably for their second pick, and perhaps Ke'Bryan Hayes if he gets that far. Scouting director Ray Montgomery had success in Arizona by taking whatever fell to him in the draft, like Braden Shipley, and I believe the Brewers are hoping for a similar windfall here.
PLAYER CARD
16Chris BettsSCHOOL: Wilson High School (Long Beach, Calif.)HT: 6-2WT: 220POS: C
Analysis: I've heard the Yanks with Whitley; Donny Everett, who might be available again at 30 as an over-slot guy; as well as Drew Finley at that later pick. This is my own speculation, but I wonder if they're a landing spot for Cameron if he's looking for an over-slot deal.
PLAYER CARD
17Ian HappSCHOOL: CincinnatiHT: 6-0WT: 205POS: 2B
Analysis: Cleveland tends to be a true "best player available" team, landing Brad Zimmer last year when they didn't expect him to get to them in the first place. Happ or Newman would fit that bill here, or Jon Harris, with Nikorak as something of a longshot.
PLAYER CARD
18Jon HarrisSCHOOL: Missouri StateHT: 6-4WT: 175POS: RHP
Analysis: I think sometimes folks just assume the Giants are taking a starter, since they've had success with them, even though they've taken a bat in the first round four times since I started doing these (Buster Posey, Joe Panik, Gary Brown, Christian Arroyo). I've also heard them linked to Cody Ponce and Nikorak.
PLAYER CARD
19Cornelius RandolphSCHOOL: Griffin (Ga.) High SchoolHT: 6-1WT: 200POS: SS
Analysis: The Pirates might be the high team on Ponce, who has finished strong after a midseason bout of shoulder soreness. They were also very high on Joe McCarthy, who missed most of the spring with a back problem, coming out of last summer.
PLAYER CARD
20Donnie DeweesSCHOOL: North FloridaHT: 6-0WT: 190POS: OF
Analysis: Oakland's been very heavy on Dewees of late, comparing him to Brett Gardner, and active on Bickford and USD shortstop Kyle Holder.
PLAYER CARD
21Phil BickfordSCHOOL: College of Southern NevadaHT: 6-0WT: 200POS: RHP
Analysis: The Royals had great success with their first-round pick last year, taking TCU lefty starter Brandon Finnegan and using him in their major-league bullpen in September and the playoffs; they could do the same with Bickford, who can reach the upper 90s in relief, this fall.
PLAYER CARD
22Kyle FunkhouserSCHOOL: LouisvilleHT: 6-2WT: 220POS: RHP
Analysis: I've also heard the Tigers with Jacob Nix, Ashe Russell, Hayes, and Stephenson, as well as possibly Jahmai Jones with their second pick.
PLAYER CARD
23Nate KirbySCHOOL: VirginiaHT: 6-2WT: 185POS: LHP
The Cardinals are one of a few teams with two extra picks (one via the competitive balance lottery, one for failing to sign their third-rounder last year), so they have the flexibility to go well over on a player who falls here but wants a top-10 bonus.
PLAYER CARD
24Ke'Bryan HayesSCHOOL: Concordia Lutheran HS (Tomball, Texas)HT: 6-1WT: 205POS: 3B
They're among teams rumored to be interested in Mike Matuella, the Duke right-hander who missed almost the entire spring after Tommy John surgery, and was in consideration at 1-1 had he stayed healthy and pitched well.
PLAYER CARD
25Cody PonceSCHOOL: Cal Poly PomonaHT: 6-6WT: 240POS: RHP
Analysis: The Orioles are also in on Hayes, one of the draft's premium defensive players.
PLAYER CARD
26Scott KingerySCHOOL: ArizonaHT: 5-11WT: 175POS: 2B
Analysis: I've heard the Angels are mostly focused on college players here.
PLAYER CARD
27James KaprielianSCHOOL: UCLAHT: 6-4WT: 200POS: RHP
Analysis: I've had a few scouts tell me they think Kaprielian goes in the teens or early 20s, but if some higher-rated college arms like Kirby, Funkhouser and Ponce slide a little into the back half of the round, that may push Kaprielian into the sandwich round, where I know the Rockies like him, as well as Spencer Nevin (son of Phil).
PLAYER CARD
28Drew FinleySCHOOL: Rancho Bernardo High School (San Diego)HT: 6-3WT: 200POS: RHP
Analysis: Finley's market probably starts here and runs to the top of the second round. Atlanta is also on Nikorak and could take him here, pushing Finley to the Yanks at 30.
PLAYER CARD
29Eric JenkinsSCHOOL: West Columbus HS (Cerro Gordo, NC)HT: 6-2WT: 180POS: OF
Analysis: The Blue Jays are also on Richie Martin, Justin Maese and Brady Singer.
PLAYER CARD
30Mike NikorakSCHOOL: Stroudsburg (Pa.) High SchoolHT: 6-5WT: 205POS: RHP
Analysis: I also heard the Yankees connected with Everett/Finley, as mentioned above, as well as Jacob Nix, who probably goes in the 25-35 range.
PLAYER CARD