Post by Braves GM (Wood) on May 30, 2015 22:21:47 GMT -5
There isn't much that's new since the last time I went through this exercise (Mock Draft 1.0) -- I do have changes at numerous picks, including six of the first nine -- but with the extra week between the conference tournaments and the draft, most teams haven't begun their pre-draft meetings yet, and preliminary calls to players to gauge signability are just getting started. Here's my best guess as to how the first round (just 26 picks this year) will shake out.
For a look at my top 100 draft prospects for 2015, click here. Player-card scouting reports and profiles were written by Christopher Crawford, Eric Longenhagen and myself.
1Dansby SwansonSCHOOL: VanderbiltHT: 6-0WT: 190POS: SS
Analysis: Arizona knows whom it wants to take, but it's keeping a tight lid on it; however, everyone I've talked to about it says they're taking Swanson -- or at least they say that's who I should have them taking in the mock. They've looked at a lot of other players, including Dillon Tate, Tyler Jay, Tyler Stephenson and Garrett Whitley.
PLAYER CARD
2Brendan RodgersSCHOOL: Lake Mary (Fla.) High SchoolHT: 6-0WT: 195POS: SS
Analysis: Houston wants Swanson here, and if he's gone, their two primary choices seem to be Rodgers and Alex Bregman; I've heard often this spring that they're off Rodgers, but heard just within the past few days that that wasn't as black-or-white as I believed.
PLAYER CARD
3Tyler JaySCHOOL: IllinoisHT: 6-1WT: 175POS: LHP
Analysis: The Rockies want a pitcher and have been very heavy on Jay lately, especially because he's one of a few arms in this draft who could help a major league team this season. They're also on Dillon Tate.
PLAYER CARD
4Dillon TateSCHOOL: UC Santa BarbaraHT: 6-2WT: 185POS: RHP
Analysis: The Rangers were on Walker Buehler of Vanderbilt and might still take him, but he has limped to the finish line after a strong start to the season. They'd consider Brendan Rodgers here if he gets this far, but have concerns about his long-term outlook as a hitter.
PLAYER CARD
5Kyle TuckerSCHOOL: Plant High School (Tampa)HT: 6-4WT: 175POS: OF
Analysis: The Astros want bats with their two first-round picks, and would like to get one high-probability bat and one high-ceiling bat if it happens to work out in their favor. They also could consider Daz Cameron or Trenton Clark here, as well as Alex Bregman.
PLAYER CARD
6Alex BregmanSCHOOL: LSUHT: 6-0WT: 190POS: SS
Analysis: I've heard the Twins on only three names: Bregman, Kolby Allard and Daz Cameron. Allard's medicals remain TBD, although I don't think there's any reason the stress reaction in his lower back should scare off teams, while Cameron may want more money than the Twins are able to give him here.
PLAYER CARD
7Andrew BenintendiSCHOOL: ArkansasHT: 5-10WT: 180POS: OF
Analysis: The Red Sox are hoping Bregman gets to them and would consider Benintendi as well. They're almost certain to take a bat here, probably a college one, although they're one of a few teams high on Canadian slugger Josh Naylor.
PLAYER CARD
8Carson FulmerSCHOOL: VanderbiltHT: 5-11WT: 195POS: RHP
Analysis: The White Sox want another college arm who will get to the big leagues quickly, along the lines of Chris Sale and Carlos Rodon, which puts them squarely on Jay and Fulmer.
PLAYER CARD
9Ian HappSCHOOL: CincinnatiHT: 6-0WT: 205POS: 2B
Analysis: I've heard the Cubs predominantly with college bats here, although they also like Jay as well as some of the prep bats including Tucker or Trenton Clark.
PLAYER CARD
10Walker BuehlerSCHOOL: VanderbiltHT: 6-1WT: 160POS: RHP
Analysis: I've heard they want someone who can help the major league team soon, which would imply a polished college guy such as Buehler, Happ or Kevin Newman. If that isn't or wasn't a consideration, they might take Tyler Stephenson here.
PLAYER CARD
11Trenton ClarkSCHOOL: Richland HS (North Richland Hills, Texas)HT: 6-0WT: 200POS: OF
Analysis: I've lost count of how many players I've heard the Reds on, from Benintendi to Stephenson to Tucker to Fulmer.
PLAYER CARD
12James KaprielianSCHOOL: UCLAHT: 6-4WT: 200POS: RHP
Analysis: The Marlins want Kyle Tucker, but it seems extremely unlikely that he'll get to them, after which it seems as if they'd like to get a college player who'll move up their system a little faster.
PLAYER CARD
13Garrett WhitleySCHOOL: Niskayuna (N.Y.) High SchoolHT: 6-1WT: 195POS: OF
Analysis: The Rays want Benintendi, but (sad trombone) it seems as though he'll be gone, with several teams ahead of them interested. I'd heard them on Cornelius Randolph but if he's looking for a bonus well over slot, this isn't the team for him. They're one of a few teams in this range rumored to be on Josh Naylor, and also are probably the floor for Buehler.
PLAYER CARD
14Tyler StephensonSCHOOL: Kennesaw Mountain HS (Kennesaw, Ga.)HT: 6-4WT: 215POS: C
Analysis: I think this is the most likely landing spot for Stephenson -- although it would be so unlike Atlanta to take a Georgia prep player -- with the team also looking at the Tucker/Clark class as well as Kaprelian.
PLAYER CARD
15Jon HarrisSCHOOL: Missouri StateHT: 6-4WT: 175POS: RHP
Analysis: Ray Montgomery was always a best-player-available guy when he was in Arizona and I expect he'll do the same for Milwaukee, which means they'll take what falls to them -- Happ, Harris, Chris Betts, Kaprelian or Kevin Newman.
PLAYER CARD
16Kolby AllardSCHOOL: San Clemente (Calif.) High SchoolHT: 6-0WT: 175POS: LHP
Analysis: I've heard them with Betts, Whitley and Donny Everett as well.
PLAYER CARD
17Kevin NewmanSCHOOL: ArizonaHT: 6-1WT: 180POS: SS
Analysis: Another â??best player availableâ?ý team, as they landed Brad Zimmer last year when they went into the draft thinking he'd be long gone. I've also heard them linked to Virginia lefty Nate Kirby.
PLAYER CARD
18Mike NikorakSCHOOL: Stroudsburg (Pa.) High SchoolHT: 6-5WT: 205POS: RHP
Analysis: This seems to be Nikorak's top landing spot, and he fits the Giants' profile in a Matt Cain sort of way; they're also on Indiana prep righties Nolan Watson and Ashe Russell as well as Michigan outfielder Nick Plummer.
PLAYER CARD
19Daz CameronSCHOOL: Eagles Landing HS (McDonough, Ga.)HT: 6-1WT: 190POS: OF
Analysis: I think they're also in best player available mode, but a couple of execs have cited the Pirates' willingness to go over slot for a premium player in thinking they'd make a good landing spot for Cameron or Cornelius Randolph.
PLAYER CARD
20Chris BettsSCHOOL: Wilson High School (Long Beach, Calif.)HT: 6-2WT: 220POS: C
Analysis: They'd love it if Happ slid to them, and are also on Phil Bickford and North Florida outfielder Donnie Dewees, the latter the best-performing college player in the draft but one who gets docked a few points for doing it against terrible competition.
PLAYER CARD
21Phil BickfordSCHOOL: College of Southern NevadaHT: 6-0WT: 200POS: RHP
Analysis: I've heard this connection numerous times, and Bickford -- who went ninth overall in 2013 but didn't sign -- could follow the Brandon Finnegan path to the big leagues as a reliever later this year.
PLAYER CARD
22Cornelius RandolphSCHOOL: Griffin (Ga.) High SchoolHT: 6-1WT: 200POS: SS
Analysis: Randolph tweeted about how he'd miss only five people beyond his family when he goes to college â?¦ which I suppose is some sort of attempt to create leverage or something. Color me unconvinced.
PLAYER CARD
23Nate KirbySCHOOL: VirginiaHT: 6-2WT: 185POS: LHP
Analysis: Kirby has been out for nearly two months with a side strain, but is expected to make a return start this weekend in Virginia's regional at Lake Elsinore (hosted by UC Santa Barbara), where Kirby could make back some of the money he lost with a disappointing spring.
PLAYER CARD
24Mike MatuellaSCHOOL: DukeHT: 6-7WT: 220POS: RHP
Analysis: The Dodgers have two extra picks, one in each sandwich round, with the capacity to go over slot with one of their picks because of their larger bonus pool.
PLAYER CARD
25Ke'Bryan HayesSCHOOL: Concordia Lutheran HS (Tomball, Texas)HT: 6-1WT: 205POS: 3B
Analysis: I've heard they'd prefer a bat to an arm, and with Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey both having minor arm issues in the past few weeks, who can blame them?
PLAYER CARD
26Blake TrahanSCHOOL: Louisiana-LafayetteHT: 5-9WT: 180POS: SS
Analysis: I keep hearing the Angels on college position players, including Trahan and Arizona second baseman Scott Kingery.
"There is no limit to what can be accomplished when nobody cares who gets the credit."
For a look at my top 100 draft prospects for 2015, click here. Player-card scouting reports and profiles were written by Christopher Crawford, Eric Longenhagen and myself.
1Dansby SwansonSCHOOL: VanderbiltHT: 6-0WT: 190POS: SS
Analysis: Arizona knows whom it wants to take, but it's keeping a tight lid on it; however, everyone I've talked to about it says they're taking Swanson -- or at least they say that's who I should have them taking in the mock. They've looked at a lot of other players, including Dillon Tate, Tyler Jay, Tyler Stephenson and Garrett Whitley.
PLAYER CARD
2Brendan RodgersSCHOOL: Lake Mary (Fla.) High SchoolHT: 6-0WT: 195POS: SS
Analysis: Houston wants Swanson here, and if he's gone, their two primary choices seem to be Rodgers and Alex Bregman; I've heard often this spring that they're off Rodgers, but heard just within the past few days that that wasn't as black-or-white as I believed.
PLAYER CARD
3Tyler JaySCHOOL: IllinoisHT: 6-1WT: 175POS: LHP
Analysis: The Rockies want a pitcher and have been very heavy on Jay lately, especially because he's one of a few arms in this draft who could help a major league team this season. They're also on Dillon Tate.
PLAYER CARD
4Dillon TateSCHOOL: UC Santa BarbaraHT: 6-2WT: 185POS: RHP
Analysis: The Rangers were on Walker Buehler of Vanderbilt and might still take him, but he has limped to the finish line after a strong start to the season. They'd consider Brendan Rodgers here if he gets this far, but have concerns about his long-term outlook as a hitter.
PLAYER CARD
5Kyle TuckerSCHOOL: Plant High School (Tampa)HT: 6-4WT: 175POS: OF
Analysis: The Astros want bats with their two first-round picks, and would like to get one high-probability bat and one high-ceiling bat if it happens to work out in their favor. They also could consider Daz Cameron or Trenton Clark here, as well as Alex Bregman.
PLAYER CARD
6Alex BregmanSCHOOL: LSUHT: 6-0WT: 190POS: SS
Analysis: I've heard the Twins on only three names: Bregman, Kolby Allard and Daz Cameron. Allard's medicals remain TBD, although I don't think there's any reason the stress reaction in his lower back should scare off teams, while Cameron may want more money than the Twins are able to give him here.
PLAYER CARD
7Andrew BenintendiSCHOOL: ArkansasHT: 5-10WT: 180POS: OF
Analysis: The Red Sox are hoping Bregman gets to them and would consider Benintendi as well. They're almost certain to take a bat here, probably a college one, although they're one of a few teams high on Canadian slugger Josh Naylor.
PLAYER CARD
8Carson FulmerSCHOOL: VanderbiltHT: 5-11WT: 195POS: RHP
Analysis: The White Sox want another college arm who will get to the big leagues quickly, along the lines of Chris Sale and Carlos Rodon, which puts them squarely on Jay and Fulmer.
PLAYER CARD
9Ian HappSCHOOL: CincinnatiHT: 6-0WT: 205POS: 2B
Analysis: I've heard the Cubs predominantly with college bats here, although they also like Jay as well as some of the prep bats including Tucker or Trenton Clark.
PLAYER CARD
10Walker BuehlerSCHOOL: VanderbiltHT: 6-1WT: 160POS: RHP
Analysis: I've heard they want someone who can help the major league team soon, which would imply a polished college guy such as Buehler, Happ or Kevin Newman. If that isn't or wasn't a consideration, they might take Tyler Stephenson here.
PLAYER CARD
11Trenton ClarkSCHOOL: Richland HS (North Richland Hills, Texas)HT: 6-0WT: 200POS: OF
Analysis: I've lost count of how many players I've heard the Reds on, from Benintendi to Stephenson to Tucker to Fulmer.
PLAYER CARD
12James KaprielianSCHOOL: UCLAHT: 6-4WT: 200POS: RHP
Analysis: The Marlins want Kyle Tucker, but it seems extremely unlikely that he'll get to them, after which it seems as if they'd like to get a college player who'll move up their system a little faster.
PLAYER CARD
13Garrett WhitleySCHOOL: Niskayuna (N.Y.) High SchoolHT: 6-1WT: 195POS: OF
Analysis: The Rays want Benintendi, but (sad trombone) it seems as though he'll be gone, with several teams ahead of them interested. I'd heard them on Cornelius Randolph but if he's looking for a bonus well over slot, this isn't the team for him. They're one of a few teams in this range rumored to be on Josh Naylor, and also are probably the floor for Buehler.
PLAYER CARD
14Tyler StephensonSCHOOL: Kennesaw Mountain HS (Kennesaw, Ga.)HT: 6-4WT: 215POS: C
Analysis: I think this is the most likely landing spot for Stephenson -- although it would be so unlike Atlanta to take a Georgia prep player -- with the team also looking at the Tucker/Clark class as well as Kaprelian.
PLAYER CARD
15Jon HarrisSCHOOL: Missouri StateHT: 6-4WT: 175POS: RHP
Analysis: Ray Montgomery was always a best-player-available guy when he was in Arizona and I expect he'll do the same for Milwaukee, which means they'll take what falls to them -- Happ, Harris, Chris Betts, Kaprelian or Kevin Newman.
PLAYER CARD
16Kolby AllardSCHOOL: San Clemente (Calif.) High SchoolHT: 6-0WT: 175POS: LHP
Analysis: I've heard them with Betts, Whitley and Donny Everett as well.
PLAYER CARD
17Kevin NewmanSCHOOL: ArizonaHT: 6-1WT: 180POS: SS
Analysis: Another â??best player availableâ?ý team, as they landed Brad Zimmer last year when they went into the draft thinking he'd be long gone. I've also heard them linked to Virginia lefty Nate Kirby.
PLAYER CARD
18Mike NikorakSCHOOL: Stroudsburg (Pa.) High SchoolHT: 6-5WT: 205POS: RHP
Analysis: This seems to be Nikorak's top landing spot, and he fits the Giants' profile in a Matt Cain sort of way; they're also on Indiana prep righties Nolan Watson and Ashe Russell as well as Michigan outfielder Nick Plummer.
PLAYER CARD
19Daz CameronSCHOOL: Eagles Landing HS (McDonough, Ga.)HT: 6-1WT: 190POS: OF
Analysis: I think they're also in best player available mode, but a couple of execs have cited the Pirates' willingness to go over slot for a premium player in thinking they'd make a good landing spot for Cameron or Cornelius Randolph.
PLAYER CARD
20Chris BettsSCHOOL: Wilson High School (Long Beach, Calif.)HT: 6-2WT: 220POS: C
Analysis: They'd love it if Happ slid to them, and are also on Phil Bickford and North Florida outfielder Donnie Dewees, the latter the best-performing college player in the draft but one who gets docked a few points for doing it against terrible competition.
PLAYER CARD
21Phil BickfordSCHOOL: College of Southern NevadaHT: 6-0WT: 200POS: RHP
Analysis: I've heard this connection numerous times, and Bickford -- who went ninth overall in 2013 but didn't sign -- could follow the Brandon Finnegan path to the big leagues as a reliever later this year.
PLAYER CARD
22Cornelius RandolphSCHOOL: Griffin (Ga.) High SchoolHT: 6-1WT: 200POS: SS
Analysis: Randolph tweeted about how he'd miss only five people beyond his family when he goes to college â?¦ which I suppose is some sort of attempt to create leverage or something. Color me unconvinced.
PLAYER CARD
23Nate KirbySCHOOL: VirginiaHT: 6-2WT: 185POS: LHP
Analysis: Kirby has been out for nearly two months with a side strain, but is expected to make a return start this weekend in Virginia's regional at Lake Elsinore (hosted by UC Santa Barbara), where Kirby could make back some of the money he lost with a disappointing spring.
PLAYER CARD
24Mike MatuellaSCHOOL: DukeHT: 6-7WT: 220POS: RHP
Analysis: The Dodgers have two extra picks, one in each sandwich round, with the capacity to go over slot with one of their picks because of their larger bonus pool.
PLAYER CARD
25Ke'Bryan HayesSCHOOL: Concordia Lutheran HS (Tomball, Texas)HT: 6-1WT: 205POS: 3B
Analysis: I've heard they'd prefer a bat to an arm, and with Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey both having minor arm issues in the past few weeks, who can blame them?
PLAYER CARD
26Blake TrahanSCHOOL: Louisiana-LafayetteHT: 5-9WT: 180POS: SS
Analysis: I keep hearing the Angels on college position players, including Trahan and Arizona second baseman Scott Kingery.
"There is no limit to what can be accomplished when nobody cares who gets the credit."
