The AL Wild Card Race
Jul 24, 2017 17:08:30 GMT -5
Rangers GM (Bill), Twins GM (Pat), and 2 more like this
Post by White Sox GM (Michael) on Jul 24, 2017 17:08:30 GMT -5
Today marks the first day of Week 16, meaning there are only six more weeks of baseball before our playoffs begin. With that, races for the ten playoff spots have really started to crystallize. Perhaps the most interesting one is the AL Wild Card race.
Each of the three divisions in the AL are practically wrapped up, as each division leader is up by 15+ games. The Wild Card race, on the other hand, is particularly exciting. While the Rays are the favorite to hold down one spot, four teams are only separated by a handful of games for the final playoff spot:
Let's take a look at each team to see who may have an advantage in the next month and a half.
Tampa Bay Rays
Although this team is light on stars, its depth throughout the starting lineup and bullpen makes it one of the AL's strongest teams. They're near the top of the league in most power statistics in large part due to surprising seasons from Didi Gregorious and Steven Souza, and a healthy Cespedes only makes this lineup stronger. The rotation has survived despite a rough campaign from Danny Salazar, and an elite bullpen drives the Rays' rate stats way down.
What they need at the deadline: A hit-for-average UTIL bat. Cespedes can shift to LF to push Rajai Davis - a good steals source, but unproductive otherwise - to the bench. A mid-rotation arm is a good idea, as well.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers' success on offense is centered around Springer, whose numbers put him in the MVP conversation. Around him, Detroit has managed above-average production by volume stats but below-average by rate stats. The pitching has been far less reliable, as Pomeranz has been the only one to build upon past success. We can probably expect some positive regression, especially for someone like Marco Estrada. The bullpen does a good job of keeping the rate stats manageable, but nobody gets saves and only Barnes gets holds regularly.
What they need at the deadline: A new first baseman. Pujols' production could be upgraded by acquiring even an average 1B. But what's more important is acquiring pitching. The Tigers need at least one arm, but they may be better off acquiring two mid-rotation guys as opposed to one ace. They could also use a closer.
Seattle Mariners
Although the Mariners are flirting with selling, they're certainly in the thick of things. Bellinger's breakout is the story of the year for this team, but the lineup otherwise sports a good power-speed combination with guys like Eric Hosmer, Chris Owings, Kyle Seager, and Yasiel Puig. While the offense has been strong, the rotation has been lackluster. The M's just aren't getting reliable innings from anyone besides Leake and maybe Garza. The pen, led by relief ace Archie Bradley, is much more well-rounded.
What they need at the deadline: The Mariners want to sell, but I honestly don't think there's much here to sell off - this group will be back for the most part in 2018. They should at least consider being buyers for an arm or two, because their lineup is one of the best in the AL.
Oakland Athletics
Of all the teams in this post, the A's might have the best shot this season. Blackmon is a legitimate star on offense, and Andrus has put together a great well-rounded year at shortstop. The rest of the lineup has been solid albeit a bit disappointing because of guys like Bautista, but it could be argued that Edwin is due for one of his patented Edwin runs late in the season. Harrison was a great recent acquisition. The rotation is fearsome, especially by AL standards, and the bullpen has two (pretty shitty) closers along with some more ERA-friendly holds sources.
What they need at the deadline: A new catcher, if they can find one, since Martin has been anemic. The A's could also certainly benefit from one strikeout machine relief ace (two would be better), not only because the pen is a weak point but also because some of the starters don't get a lot of strikeouts. My wishlist for the A's is longer because their team is a bit older and could snatch the wild card and go deep into the playoffs this season if they play their cards right.
Cleveland Indians
The Indians seem like a perennial Wild Card contender, and they find themselves in this position yet again. Cleveland employs the stars-and-scrubs model harder than any other team - Cano, Miggy, and Longo are elite veterans in an otherwise lackluster lineup, although Marwin Gonzalez has been quite the surprise for them and can play four positions. The rotation has an elite Max Scherzer, a declining but still solid King Felix, and nothing else; the bullpen has an elite Justin Wilson and nothing else. The Indians are seemingly at the same crossroads they've been at for a few years - go all in for your veterans, or trade them while they still have some value and build up for the future. Considering the Indians don't have a great farm and are tied up with money next season before losing both Scherzer and Cano, they are likely best off trading their elite vets, which could make them have one of the AL's brightest futures almost instantly.
What they need at the deadline: I say shop Scherzer and Cano heavily, and if one guy gets a big return, start selling off everything else. If nobody really bites, maybe wait for the offseason, and maybe pick up a pitcher or two for the stretch to get more innings beside the other guys.
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I think the Rays and A's ultimately end up with the Wild Cards. The Rays have a good team and some padding going into the final weeks, and it looks like the A's are prepared to make a few moves to launch them ahead of the Tigers and Mariners. However, I wouldn't be surprised if any of these teams ends up making it into the playoffs, and from there, it's any guess how it'll shake out.
Each of the three divisions in the AL are practically wrapped up, as each division leader is up by 15+ games. The Wild Card race, on the other hand, is particularly exciting. While the Rays are the favorite to hold down one spot, four teams are only separated by a handful of games for the final playoff spot:
| Team | Winning Percentage | GB |
| Rays | .588 | +6 |
| Tigers | .560 | -- |
| Mariners | .552 | 1.5 |
| Athletics | .536 | 5 |
| Indians | .526 | 7 |
Let's take a look at each team to see who may have an advantage in the next month and a half.
Tampa Bay Rays
Although this team is light on stars, its depth throughout the starting lineup and bullpen makes it one of the AL's strongest teams. They're near the top of the league in most power statistics in large part due to surprising seasons from Didi Gregorious and Steven Souza, and a healthy Cespedes only makes this lineup stronger. The rotation has survived despite a rough campaign from Danny Salazar, and an elite bullpen drives the Rays' rate stats way down.
What they need at the deadline: A hit-for-average UTIL bat. Cespedes can shift to LF to push Rajai Davis - a good steals source, but unproductive otherwise - to the bench. A mid-rotation arm is a good idea, as well.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers' success on offense is centered around Springer, whose numbers put him in the MVP conversation. Around him, Detroit has managed above-average production by volume stats but below-average by rate stats. The pitching has been far less reliable, as Pomeranz has been the only one to build upon past success. We can probably expect some positive regression, especially for someone like Marco Estrada. The bullpen does a good job of keeping the rate stats manageable, but nobody gets saves and only Barnes gets holds regularly.
What they need at the deadline: A new first baseman. Pujols' production could be upgraded by acquiring even an average 1B. But what's more important is acquiring pitching. The Tigers need at least one arm, but they may be better off acquiring two mid-rotation guys as opposed to one ace. They could also use a closer.
Seattle Mariners
Although the Mariners are flirting with selling, they're certainly in the thick of things. Bellinger's breakout is the story of the year for this team, but the lineup otherwise sports a good power-speed combination with guys like Eric Hosmer, Chris Owings, Kyle Seager, and Yasiel Puig. While the offense has been strong, the rotation has been lackluster. The M's just aren't getting reliable innings from anyone besides Leake and maybe Garza. The pen, led by relief ace Archie Bradley, is much more well-rounded.
What they need at the deadline: The Mariners want to sell, but I honestly don't think there's much here to sell off - this group will be back for the most part in 2018. They should at least consider being buyers for an arm or two, because their lineup is one of the best in the AL.
Oakland Athletics
Of all the teams in this post, the A's might have the best shot this season. Blackmon is a legitimate star on offense, and Andrus has put together a great well-rounded year at shortstop. The rest of the lineup has been solid albeit a bit disappointing because of guys like Bautista, but it could be argued that Edwin is due for one of his patented Edwin runs late in the season. Harrison was a great recent acquisition. The rotation is fearsome, especially by AL standards, and the bullpen has two (pretty shitty) closers along with some more ERA-friendly holds sources.
What they need at the deadline: A new catcher, if they can find one, since Martin has been anemic. The A's could also certainly benefit from one strikeout machine relief ace (two would be better), not only because the pen is a weak point but also because some of the starters don't get a lot of strikeouts. My wishlist for the A's is longer because their team is a bit older and could snatch the wild card and go deep into the playoffs this season if they play their cards right.
Cleveland Indians
The Indians seem like a perennial Wild Card contender, and they find themselves in this position yet again. Cleveland employs the stars-and-scrubs model harder than any other team - Cano, Miggy, and Longo are elite veterans in an otherwise lackluster lineup, although Marwin Gonzalez has been quite the surprise for them and can play four positions. The rotation has an elite Max Scherzer, a declining but still solid King Felix, and nothing else; the bullpen has an elite Justin Wilson and nothing else. The Indians are seemingly at the same crossroads they've been at for a few years - go all in for your veterans, or trade them while they still have some value and build up for the future. Considering the Indians don't have a great farm and are tied up with money next season before losing both Scherzer and Cano, they are likely best off trading their elite vets, which could make them have one of the AL's brightest futures almost instantly.
What they need at the deadline: I say shop Scherzer and Cano heavily, and if one guy gets a big return, start selling off everything else. If nobody really bites, maybe wait for the offseason, and maybe pick up a pitcher or two for the stretch to get more innings beside the other guys.
---
I think the Rays and A's ultimately end up with the Wild Cards. The Rays have a good team and some padding going into the final weeks, and it looks like the A's are prepared to make a few moves to launch them ahead of the Tigers and Mariners. However, I wouldn't be surprised if any of these teams ends up making it into the playoffs, and from there, it's any guess how it'll shake out.
