Way Too Early ODC Playoff and Standings Prediction
Jan 12, 2017 10:10:53 GMT -5
White Sox GM (Michael) likes this
Post by Brewers GM (Marty) on Jan 12, 2017 10:10:53 GMT -5
Here is your way too early 2017 season predictions!
A quick guide to how this worked: I looked at your roster, tried to find sources for each stat we count, took a look at the current roster vs. what I know it was last year, adjusted wins in my head up/down, then compared to the rest of your division. Then at the end I picked the two teams I think will get the wild cards.
I listed where I felt a team was strong vs. where it could improve. The Barometer Players are the guys I feel will have the most effect on the final record. Some will have more impact than others, some for depth reasons, others for potential output reasons. If they go bad, then they'll underperform most likely, and vice versa.
The Help on the way section are the guys currently on the MILB roster that I feel will help in 2017. Not listing someone doesn't mean I don't like them, it just means I don't think they'll get called up at any point to the MLB club.
AL East overview:
Right now this is Jeff's division to lose. Unless Forbz tears the roster down in the next 3 months, which is entirely possible, he should have 2nd place locked down. Although his barometer players are more important than some others in the division. Bad seasons out of his and one injury in the rotation could push him below Stuart. Stuart's pitching staff will keep him out of the playoffs, but his offensive studs will keep him floating ahead of the Yankees and Jays for the time being. Great seasons out of Wong and if his young pitching lives up to the hype could push the Jays into a 4th place battle.
AL East
1. Baltimore Orioles
Where they're strong: Most places. This team will generate good numbers each week in nearly every category.
How he can be beat: In the AL? Uhhhhh.... Well if this roster has a soft spot it's SB's. He got career years from a number of pitchers last season that may not repeat. He's deep, to W/QS/K's shouldn't be a problem most weeks, but WHIP/ERA/Saves could be weaker spots.
Barometer Players: Tim Anderson, Yordano Ventura, Neftali Feliz (He'll win the East, these guys will determine by how much)
Help on the way: Nothing
2. Tampa Bay Rays
Where they're strong: Very nice bullpen, and if it clicks he should be fielding a well rounded offense.
How he can be beat: This team doesn't have a deep enough rotation. It's countered by a strong pen though. This could be a very streaky offense, considering the youth and players coming off career years.
Barometer Players: Wil Myers, Joc Pederson, Steven Souza, Braden Shipley, Matt Harvey
Help on the way: Lucas Giolito
3. Boston Red Sox
Where they're strong: The top 2 on his offense is elite, with some solid fantasy role players around them.
Where they're weak: Pitching, Pitching, Pitching. Not much depth, and a lot of question marks in the pen
Barometer players: Billy Hamilton, Craig Kimbrel
Help on the way: Miguel Andujar perhaps
4. New York Yankees
Where they're strong: His pitching is enough to keep teams honest. Playing this roster is now no longer a 14-0 walkover
Where they're weak: The offense is pretty meh. There's enough to steal categories even from good teams, but that's about it. This roster will lose to good teams and beat bad ones. No surprises.
Barometer Players: Joe Musgrove, Max Kepler, Travis Shaw
Help on the way: Francis Martes, Willy Adames...too many names to not miss someone
5. Toronto Blue Jays
Where they're strong: I guess if I have to pick one, it's pitching. If the pen were deeper, I wouldn't have a problem putting it ahead of Boston's.
Where they're weak: Thin pen, thin offense. I think both pitching and hitting are a step behind the Yankees.
Barometer Players: Kolton Wong, Tyler Glasnow, Jeff Hoffman (good seasons may push team to a .450 record)
Help on the way: Jesse Winker, Socrates Brito, Anthony Banda
AL Central overview:
FA's hit the White Sox in the shorts when he lost a big chunk of his offense. A Royal teardown and a continuing retool in Detroit have pushed the Twins and Indians to the top of the division. The Twins have a deep offense and the best pitching staff in the division, while the Indians boast enough offense and a Scherzer to stay ahead of the White Sox, Tigers, and Royals.
AL Central
1. Minnesota Twins
Where they're strong: Well rounded offense, deep pitching staff
Where they're weak: Not sure where SB's are going to come from, pitching staff lacks a true anchor. a few questionable positions (C, 1B, 3B if Machado is at SS) offensively.
Barometer Players: Danny Duffy, Vincent Velasquez, Wilson Ramos (needs to start and stay hot when he returns)
Help on the way: Carson Kelly, Gleyber Torres (not impossible), Colin Moran
2. Cleveland Indians
Where they're strong: Good offense, potentially one of the best infields in ODC, solid role players elsewhere. Rotation anchor in Scherzer can make up for shortcomings of the rest.
Where they're weak: No depth in the rotation after Felix, OF is weak and shallow.
Barometer Players: Jason Heyward, Aledmys Diaz (needs to repeat)
Help on the way: LOL
3. Chicago White Sox
Where they're strong: 2 studs lead the offense in Stanton/Posey. Deep pen can generate holds
Where they're weak: Not enough productive depth. A lot of names, but not much behind DeGrom and Harris in the rotation/pen and little offensive support behind Stanton/Posey.
Barometer Players: Joe Panik, Collin McHugh, Jordan Zimmermann
Help on the way: Manny Margot, Brent Honeywell
4. Detroit Tigers
Where they're strong: No true offensive/pitching standouts, but a deep roster that should produce enough to not be a walkover for good teams
Where they're weak: While they have a lot of depth, there's no true offensive/pitching standouts that would enable them to beat a good team.
Barometer Players: Nick Castellanos, Scooter Gennett (will he get time?), Shin-Soo Choo, Nate Karns, All of the following "help on the way" group. (if some/all perform well, could pass Cleveland)
Help on the way: Tom Murphy, Dilson Herrera, Amed Rosario, Lewis Brinson, Robert Stephenson, Joe Jimenez, Raimel Tapia
5. Kansas City Royals
Where they're strong: Could take saves and holds against bad teams.
Where they're weak: Everywhere. No rotation depth, no offensive depth, lots of performance risk everywhere.
Barometer Players: uhhhhhhhhhh....everyone. Good seasons out of Buxton, Moncada, and Arcia will keep me from being a 14-0 walkover every week.
Help on the way: Tyler O'Neill, Casey Gillaspie, Carlos Asuaje, Roman Quinn, Jeimer Candelario, Brandon Woodruff, some pen options
AL West overview:
This one will be a tight race between the Rangers and Mariners. There may not be a team whose barometer players are more important to it's fortunes than the Mariners. There's potentially great production there, and he'll need it to take the division. The Rangers have much more depth though, and if the M's take an injury there's just no way for it to compete. The Angels and A's will be taking home league participation certificates this year.
AL West
1. Texas Rangers
Where they're strong: Relative to the division, this is the only team that can survive an injury. One of the stronger middle infields, has sources for most stats.
Where they're weak: None of those sources for stats are particularly great. Segura finally hit again, but can he maintain in Seattle?
Barometer Players: Jean Segura, Carlos Carrasco, Jimmy Nelson, Drew Storen
Help on the way: Jharel Cotton, Rymer Liriano (?), AJ Cole
2. Seattle Mariners
Where they're strong: Deep pitching staff, some solid pieces on offense.
Where they're weak: Rotation and offense are just OK, no player that's particularly outstanding at anything.
Barometer Players: Byung-Ho Park, Yasiel Puig, VMart's health, Archie Bradley
Help on the way: Cody Bellinger, Nick Williams, Dalton Pompey
3. Los Angeles Angels
Where they're strong: For having a 31 man roster, there's not much here. Just through volume he'll take categories vs. the empty teams. Otherwise...well there's Jameson Taillon!
Where they're weak: everywhere. Finding a solid season out of anyone on this 31 man roster outside of Taillon would be a coup.
Barometer Players: Jameson Taillon
Help on the way: Richard Urena (stretch), Dinelson Lamet, Brett Phillips
4. Oakland A's
Where they're strong: Bregman is going to be good. I think Almora takes too much crap and expect him to be at least solid in time...probably not this year though.
Where they're weak: Everywhere. Empty roster.
Barometer Players: Raul Mondesi, Almora, Judge (these guys panning out will go a long way towards 2018 and beyond)
Help on the way: Jorge Alfaro, Bradley Zimmer, Kyle Zimmer, Carl Edwards
A quick guide to how this worked: I looked at your roster, tried to find sources for each stat we count, took a look at the current roster vs. what I know it was last year, adjusted wins in my head up/down, then compared to the rest of your division. Then at the end I picked the two teams I think will get the wild cards.
I listed where I felt a team was strong vs. where it could improve. The Barometer Players are the guys I feel will have the most effect on the final record. Some will have more impact than others, some for depth reasons, others for potential output reasons. If they go bad, then they'll underperform most likely, and vice versa.
The Help on the way section are the guys currently on the MILB roster that I feel will help in 2017. Not listing someone doesn't mean I don't like them, it just means I don't think they'll get called up at any point to the MLB club.
AL East overview:
Right now this is Jeff's division to lose. Unless Forbz tears the roster down in the next 3 months, which is entirely possible, he should have 2nd place locked down. Although his barometer players are more important than some others in the division. Bad seasons out of his and one injury in the rotation could push him below Stuart. Stuart's pitching staff will keep him out of the playoffs, but his offensive studs will keep him floating ahead of the Yankees and Jays for the time being. Great seasons out of Wong and if his young pitching lives up to the hype could push the Jays into a 4th place battle.
AL East
1. Baltimore Orioles
Where they're strong: Most places. This team will generate good numbers each week in nearly every category.
How he can be beat: In the AL? Uhhhhh.... Well if this roster has a soft spot it's SB's. He got career years from a number of pitchers last season that may not repeat. He's deep, to W/QS/K's shouldn't be a problem most weeks, but WHIP/ERA/Saves could be weaker spots.
Barometer Players: Tim Anderson, Yordano Ventura, Neftali Feliz (He'll win the East, these guys will determine by how much)
Help on the way: Nothing
2. Tampa Bay Rays
Where they're strong: Very nice bullpen, and if it clicks he should be fielding a well rounded offense.
How he can be beat: This team doesn't have a deep enough rotation. It's countered by a strong pen though. This could be a very streaky offense, considering the youth and players coming off career years.
Barometer Players: Wil Myers, Joc Pederson, Steven Souza, Braden Shipley, Matt Harvey
Help on the way: Lucas Giolito
3. Boston Red Sox
Where they're strong: The top 2 on his offense is elite, with some solid fantasy role players around them.
Where they're weak: Pitching, Pitching, Pitching. Not much depth, and a lot of question marks in the pen
Barometer players: Billy Hamilton, Craig Kimbrel
Help on the way: Miguel Andujar perhaps
4. New York Yankees
Where they're strong: His pitching is enough to keep teams honest. Playing this roster is now no longer a 14-0 walkover
Where they're weak: The offense is pretty meh. There's enough to steal categories even from good teams, but that's about it. This roster will lose to good teams and beat bad ones. No surprises.
Barometer Players: Joe Musgrove, Max Kepler, Travis Shaw
Help on the way: Francis Martes, Willy Adames...too many names to not miss someone
5. Toronto Blue Jays
Where they're strong: I guess if I have to pick one, it's pitching. If the pen were deeper, I wouldn't have a problem putting it ahead of Boston's.
Where they're weak: Thin pen, thin offense. I think both pitching and hitting are a step behind the Yankees.
Barometer Players: Kolton Wong, Tyler Glasnow, Jeff Hoffman (good seasons may push team to a .450 record)
Help on the way: Jesse Winker, Socrates Brito, Anthony Banda
AL Central overview:
FA's hit the White Sox in the shorts when he lost a big chunk of his offense. A Royal teardown and a continuing retool in Detroit have pushed the Twins and Indians to the top of the division. The Twins have a deep offense and the best pitching staff in the division, while the Indians boast enough offense and a Scherzer to stay ahead of the White Sox, Tigers, and Royals.
AL Central
1. Minnesota Twins
Where they're strong: Well rounded offense, deep pitching staff
Where they're weak: Not sure where SB's are going to come from, pitching staff lacks a true anchor. a few questionable positions (C, 1B, 3B if Machado is at SS) offensively.
Barometer Players: Danny Duffy, Vincent Velasquez, Wilson Ramos (needs to start and stay hot when he returns)
Help on the way: Carson Kelly, Gleyber Torres (not impossible), Colin Moran
2. Cleveland Indians
Where they're strong: Good offense, potentially one of the best infields in ODC, solid role players elsewhere. Rotation anchor in Scherzer can make up for shortcomings of the rest.
Where they're weak: No depth in the rotation after Felix, OF is weak and shallow.
Barometer Players: Jason Heyward, Aledmys Diaz (needs to repeat)
Help on the way: LOL
3. Chicago White Sox
Where they're strong: 2 studs lead the offense in Stanton/Posey. Deep pen can generate holds
Where they're weak: Not enough productive depth. A lot of names, but not much behind DeGrom and Harris in the rotation/pen and little offensive support behind Stanton/Posey.
Barometer Players: Joe Panik, Collin McHugh, Jordan Zimmermann
Help on the way: Manny Margot, Brent Honeywell
4. Detroit Tigers
Where they're strong: No true offensive/pitching standouts, but a deep roster that should produce enough to not be a walkover for good teams
Where they're weak: While they have a lot of depth, there's no true offensive/pitching standouts that would enable them to beat a good team.
Barometer Players: Nick Castellanos, Scooter Gennett (will he get time?), Shin-Soo Choo, Nate Karns, All of the following "help on the way" group. (if some/all perform well, could pass Cleveland)
Help on the way: Tom Murphy, Dilson Herrera, Amed Rosario, Lewis Brinson, Robert Stephenson, Joe Jimenez, Raimel Tapia
5. Kansas City Royals
Where they're strong: Could take saves and holds against bad teams.
Where they're weak: Everywhere. No rotation depth, no offensive depth, lots of performance risk everywhere.
Barometer Players: uhhhhhhhhhh....everyone. Good seasons out of Buxton, Moncada, and Arcia will keep me from being a 14-0 walkover every week.
Help on the way: Tyler O'Neill, Casey Gillaspie, Carlos Asuaje, Roman Quinn, Jeimer Candelario, Brandon Woodruff, some pen options
AL West overview:
This one will be a tight race between the Rangers and Mariners. There may not be a team whose barometer players are more important to it's fortunes than the Mariners. There's potentially great production there, and he'll need it to take the division. The Rangers have much more depth though, and if the M's take an injury there's just no way for it to compete. The Angels and A's will be taking home league participation certificates this year.
AL West
1. Texas Rangers
Where they're strong: Relative to the division, this is the only team that can survive an injury. One of the stronger middle infields, has sources for most stats.
Where they're weak: None of those sources for stats are particularly great. Segura finally hit again, but can he maintain in Seattle?
Barometer Players: Jean Segura, Carlos Carrasco, Jimmy Nelson, Drew Storen
Help on the way: Jharel Cotton, Rymer Liriano (?), AJ Cole
2. Seattle Mariners
Where they're strong: Deep pitching staff, some solid pieces on offense.
Where they're weak: Rotation and offense are just OK, no player that's particularly outstanding at anything.
Barometer Players: Byung-Ho Park, Yasiel Puig, VMart's health, Archie Bradley
Help on the way: Cody Bellinger, Nick Williams, Dalton Pompey
3. Los Angeles Angels
Where they're strong: For having a 31 man roster, there's not much here. Just through volume he'll take categories vs. the empty teams. Otherwise...well there's Jameson Taillon!
Where they're weak: everywhere. Finding a solid season out of anyone on this 31 man roster outside of Taillon would be a coup.
Barometer Players: Jameson Taillon
Help on the way: Richard Urena (stretch), Dinelson Lamet, Brett Phillips
4. Oakland A's
Where they're strong: Bregman is going to be good. I think Almora takes too much crap and expect him to be at least solid in time...probably not this year though.
Where they're weak: Everywhere. Empty roster.
Barometer Players: Raul Mondesi, Almora, Judge (these guys panning out will go a long way towards 2018 and beyond)
Help on the way: Jorge Alfaro, Bradley Zimmer, Kyle Zimmer, Carl Edwards