Post by White Sox GM (Michael) on Jul 30, 2017 15:06:05 GMT -5
The trade deadline will come at some point in the next few weeks, and some teams have difficult decisions to make about the future of their teams. I think it helps to first put teams into three categories: Definite Buyers, Definite Sellers, and On The Fence:
Definite Buyers:
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays
Minnesota Twins
Texas Rangers
Oakland Athletics
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
Cincinnati Reds
San Francisco Giants
This includes the six division leaders, some teams holding Wild Card spots, and two teams that are clearly going for it already (the A's and Marlins). There are eleven teams here, so at least one of them isn't making the playoffs.
Definite Sellers:
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
Los Angeles Angels
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals
Houston Astros
San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers
This group included a few more teams originally, mostly from the National League, but they have similar records to teams that look like they're going to try to compete this season. Most of these teams don't have great rentals to give up, but they may make their other Major Leaguers available to build up their farms.
On The Fence:
Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Seattle Mariners
Washington Nationals
Milwaukee Brewers
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
Let's look at each of these nine teams:
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers held the second Wild Card spot coming into this week, and while they're 7-5-2 against a strong Rangers team, they've had a rough week. With that said, the Tigers don't have many expiring contracts, so they could conceivably keep the team and go for it again next season. The Tigers may want to see what other AL teams do before making a decision one way or the other. If they do sell, they will get a nice return for Pomeranz, and they may want to consider moving some non-rentals like Scooter Gennett. But if the American League becomes more of a race to the bottom than a race to the top, the Tigers might be able to stay put and hold on to their WC spot.
Cleveland Indians
Maybe the most fascinating case here. Although they're in the thick of it, the Indians are probably two hitters and a SP away from being a more competitive team in the Wild Card race. Plus, they received a drubbing from the Rays this week. The Indians have plenty of players that competitors would love to add before the playoffs, but I understand if Zack doesn't want to go full sell mode. They should consider moving the expiring Marwin Gonzalez, who is having a career year at the plate and has quintuple eligibility, so almost any team would love to add him. If they trade him and other expiring contracts for players that can help next year, they'll have a better shot at a playoff spot in 2018 before Scherzer and Cano expire.
Chicago White Sox
I guess I have to put my team here after back-to-back near-sweeps against bad teams. The White Sox don't have much to sell any more, but unless they play great over the next few weeks, they probably won't be buyers either. This looks more like a team gearing up for 2018 with recent additions like David Price.
Kansas City Royals
Like the White Sox, the Royals make this list after beating up on the Red Sox. The Royals have the farm to acquire an ace for the top of their rotation, but only if he'll be under contract for a few more years. They're also here because they don't really have anyone to sell off.
Seattle Mariners
After a tight matchup with the Baltimore Orioles, the Mariners look like one of the best teams in the AL. This team is young and has a chance for many future postseason runs, but Seattle should seize the current opportunity by grabbing a pitcher or two. It won't cost much in prospects, and the Mariners have a strong enough lineup to compete with any AL team in the postseason. This season is kinda gravy for this M's team, but there's really nothing to sell, so why not try going for it?
Washington Nationals
The Nats have shown that they want to compete this season, but their attempts at improving their rotation have been pretty weak. I think he's hit up every team on several Sundays to ask if they have a pitcher that day. Bryan really has to add an elite or semi-elite pitcher to this team, one way or another. He may have to give up some hitting to do it, but the lineup is strong enough to take a hit, plus he can add some cheap reinforcements anyway. Bottom line: if Bryan really thinks this is his year, he should trade accordingly.
Milwaukee Brewers
They're here because teams with similar records in the NL are here, but this looks like a seller to me. Although the lineup is strong, the rotation is cobbled together at this point and can't really hold up against the better teams in the National League. Expect the team to trade expiring contract Zack Cosart and maybe some of their other bats. They could also trade some of their controllable relief pitchers since the pen is deep.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The D-Backs are on the outside looking in, but it seems that Jason wants to buy. His team has a few needs on offense, including SS and UTIL, plus he could probably use another arm. It's a long wishlist for a team with only decent odds to make the playoffs, so perhaps these adds will be small short-term ones as opposed to huge deadline gets.
Colorado Rockies
It's hard to predict what Denver wants to do. His schedule is pretty fucking brutal the rest of the way, so maybe this isn't his year. The big expiring contract on this team is Dallas Keuchel, which should net a nice prospect return should he decide to sell. Should he decide to buy, he could use a few bats to fill out the lineup.
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Since most of the Definite Sellers are bad at the Major League level, a lot of what happens at the deadline will be determined by the direction of those nine teams. Although the deadline deals are the most fun part, the weeks beforehand will be almost as intriguing.
Definite Buyers:
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays
Minnesota Twins
Texas Rangers
Oakland Athletics
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
Cincinnati Reds
San Francisco Giants
This includes the six division leaders, some teams holding Wild Card spots, and two teams that are clearly going for it already (the A's and Marlins). There are eleven teams here, so at least one of them isn't making the playoffs.
Definite Sellers:
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
Los Angeles Angels
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals
Houston Astros
San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers
This group included a few more teams originally, mostly from the National League, but they have similar records to teams that look like they're going to try to compete this season. Most of these teams don't have great rentals to give up, but they may make their other Major Leaguers available to build up their farms.
On The Fence:
Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Seattle Mariners
Washington Nationals
Milwaukee Brewers
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
Let's look at each of these nine teams:
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers held the second Wild Card spot coming into this week, and while they're 7-5-2 against a strong Rangers team, they've had a rough week. With that said, the Tigers don't have many expiring contracts, so they could conceivably keep the team and go for it again next season. The Tigers may want to see what other AL teams do before making a decision one way or the other. If they do sell, they will get a nice return for Pomeranz, and they may want to consider moving some non-rentals like Scooter Gennett. But if the American League becomes more of a race to the bottom than a race to the top, the Tigers might be able to stay put and hold on to their WC spot.
Cleveland Indians
Maybe the most fascinating case here. Although they're in the thick of it, the Indians are probably two hitters and a SP away from being a more competitive team in the Wild Card race. Plus, they received a drubbing from the Rays this week. The Indians have plenty of players that competitors would love to add before the playoffs, but I understand if Zack doesn't want to go full sell mode. They should consider moving the expiring Marwin Gonzalez, who is having a career year at the plate and has quintuple eligibility, so almost any team would love to add him. If they trade him and other expiring contracts for players that can help next year, they'll have a better shot at a playoff spot in 2018 before Scherzer and Cano expire.
Chicago White Sox
I guess I have to put my team here after back-to-back near-sweeps against bad teams. The White Sox don't have much to sell any more, but unless they play great over the next few weeks, they probably won't be buyers either. This looks more like a team gearing up for 2018 with recent additions like David Price.
Kansas City Royals
Like the White Sox, the Royals make this list after beating up on the Red Sox. The Royals have the farm to acquire an ace for the top of their rotation, but only if he'll be under contract for a few more years. They're also here because they don't really have anyone to sell off.
Seattle Mariners
After a tight matchup with the Baltimore Orioles, the Mariners look like one of the best teams in the AL. This team is young and has a chance for many future postseason runs, but Seattle should seize the current opportunity by grabbing a pitcher or two. It won't cost much in prospects, and the Mariners have a strong enough lineup to compete with any AL team in the postseason. This season is kinda gravy for this M's team, but there's really nothing to sell, so why not try going for it?
Washington Nationals
The Nats have shown that they want to compete this season, but their attempts at improving their rotation have been pretty weak. I think he's hit up every team on several Sundays to ask if they have a pitcher that day. Bryan really has to add an elite or semi-elite pitcher to this team, one way or another. He may have to give up some hitting to do it, but the lineup is strong enough to take a hit, plus he can add some cheap reinforcements anyway. Bottom line: if Bryan really thinks this is his year, he should trade accordingly.
Milwaukee Brewers
They're here because teams with similar records in the NL are here, but this looks like a seller to me. Although the lineup is strong, the rotation is cobbled together at this point and can't really hold up against the better teams in the National League. Expect the team to trade expiring contract Zack Cosart and maybe some of their other bats. They could also trade some of their controllable relief pitchers since the pen is deep.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The D-Backs are on the outside looking in, but it seems that Jason wants to buy. His team has a few needs on offense, including SS and UTIL, plus he could probably use another arm. It's a long wishlist for a team with only decent odds to make the playoffs, so perhaps these adds will be small short-term ones as opposed to huge deadline gets.
Colorado Rockies
It's hard to predict what Denver wants to do. His schedule is pretty fucking brutal the rest of the way, so maybe this isn't his year. The big expiring contract on this team is Dallas Keuchel, which should net a nice prospect return should he decide to sell. Should he decide to buy, he could use a few bats to fill out the lineup.
---
Since most of the Definite Sellers are bad at the Major League level, a lot of what happens at the deadline will be determined by the direction of those nine teams. Although the deadline deals are the most fun part, the weeks beforehand will be almost as intriguing.
