2017-18 Free Agent Predictions: Infielders
Dec 14, 2017 23:36:46 GMT -5
Mets GM (Jack), Jays GM (Sanders), and 5 more like this
Post by White Sox GM (Michael) on Dec 14, 2017 23:36:46 GMT -5
Methodology: Look at team needs and available salary and factor in how crazy the owner is. I don't ever participate in FA seriously so the contract guesses may be off.
Yonder Alonso 1B
It's hard to know what to think of Alonso. He is coming off a strong yet inconsistent season, and he has a prospect pedigree that maybe doesn't matter much at this point. I think most teams will be scared of a long-term commitment there, leaving a rebuilding team the opportunity to buy in hopes of flipping in-season.
Projected contract: Rockies, 2 years @ $14M/yr
Zack Cozart SS
Is the power real for Cozart? It's hard to say. He may have just been a beneficiary of the live ball this season. He is one of the only really playable shortstops on the market, so the bidding for him could be fairly competitive. If he sustains his 20+ home run power, his contract could look like a steal.
Projected contract: Blue Jays, 4 years @ $13M/yr
Josh Donaldson 3B
Donaldson is the player that can make the biggest impact on a team in 2017. At 32, Donaldson has not yet shown signs of slowing down, and he's perhaps even improved by walking more. He will have fewer suitors since the only teams that will seriously go for him will be in win-now mode. I think the Nationals are ultimately the best fit given the need for a power bat and the continued tradition of winning in Washington.
Projected contract: Nationals, 5 years @ $36M/year
Marwin Gonzalez 1B/2B/SS/LF
Marwin just had a fantastic season, and his quadruple eligibility means many teams will be in the bidding. And at 29 years old, there will be many GMs willing to take a gamble on the bat. This seems like the type of player right up the Twins' alley, but I ultimately think the Athletics need him more, especially given the hole at first.
Projected contract: A's, 4 years @ $15M/year
DJ Lemahieu 2B
Lemahieu brings a high average, a high run total, and maybe some stolen bases. Not bad for a second baseman that will only be 30 next season. However, I don't know how high the demand will be, since many teams with more than $10M available don't need a second baseman, or they have bigger needs to address. I think the Indians end up moving Cano and signing a long-term replacement that can help them now and over the next few seasons.
Projected contract: Indians, 5 years @ $14M/year
Jed Lowrie 2B
Lowrie enjoyed a career year in 2017, but he still managed to fly under the radar since his numbers weren't eye-popping. Still, Lowrie can help a team win even as he enters his mid-30s. I think he could end up underpaid if he shows anything resembling a repeat performance in 2018. The Yankees have too much money to play with right now, so I think they spend a chunk of it trying to buy a player and turn a profit later.
Projected contract: Yankees, 3 years @ $9M/year
Jonathan Lucroy C
The most exciting (if you want to call him that) catcher on the market would've been much pricier a year ago, but now he's a riskier buy. I think someone pays up in a short-term deal in hopes of pre-2017 production.
Projected contract: Padres, 3 years @ $12M/year
Manny Machado 3B
Machado is perhaps the crown jewel among a fantastic crop of third baseman in this class, and since he's only turning 26 next season, he will almost certainly get the highest contract in free agency. He had a down year, but he could be gaining shortstop eligibility for next season, shooting his value through the roof. I think Twins is ultimately the favorite here since he has the hometown discount and is certainly in need of a 3B/SS.
Projected contract: Twins, 5 years @ $42M/year (before discount)
Russell Martin C
Martin is nothing special, but he represents a good low-cost alternative to Lucroy that could end up being just as good. The Braves don't have a ton of money, but it's enough to get themselves a solid catcher and a starting pitcher in free agency.
Projected contract: Braves, 2 years @ $5M/year
Mike Moustakas 3B
Moose is still just 29 and almost drilled 40 home runs this season, so he will require a pretty penny this offseason. Whether he can repeat that performance is another question, but his realistic floor is still an average producer at third. The Mets' clear need is pitching right now, but they have enough funds to grab their power bat, as well.
Projected contract: Mets, 5 years @ $22M/year
Carlos Santana 1B
Santana isn't anything special, but he's one of the most predictable bats here. With Santana, predictability isn't a bad thing - he will put up good power numbers and walk a ton. The clear fit here is San Diego, whose biggest need is a first baseman and have a ton of money to spend on the best one on the market.
Projected contract: Padres, 3 years @ $20M/year
Justin Turner 3B
Turner is certainly not as sexy a producer as Machado or Donaldson (numbers-wise...the beard is undeniably sexy). However, his great triple-slash line will buoy any lineup. I think this would be a savvy short-term signing for a competitor. My guess is he goes to the Cardinals, who will need to acquire more cap space to make it happen, but they need a 3B and are a few players away from contention.
Projected contract: Cardinals, 4 years @ $23M/year
Yonder Alonso 1B
It's hard to know what to think of Alonso. He is coming off a strong yet inconsistent season, and he has a prospect pedigree that maybe doesn't matter much at this point. I think most teams will be scared of a long-term commitment there, leaving a rebuilding team the opportunity to buy in hopes of flipping in-season.
Projected contract: Rockies, 2 years @ $14M/yr
Zack Cozart SS
Is the power real for Cozart? It's hard to say. He may have just been a beneficiary of the live ball this season. He is one of the only really playable shortstops on the market, so the bidding for him could be fairly competitive. If he sustains his 20+ home run power, his contract could look like a steal.
Projected contract: Blue Jays, 4 years @ $13M/yr
Josh Donaldson 3B
Donaldson is the player that can make the biggest impact on a team in 2017. At 32, Donaldson has not yet shown signs of slowing down, and he's perhaps even improved by walking more. He will have fewer suitors since the only teams that will seriously go for him will be in win-now mode. I think the Nationals are ultimately the best fit given the need for a power bat and the continued tradition of winning in Washington.
Projected contract: Nationals, 5 years @ $36M/year
Marwin Gonzalez 1B/2B/SS/LF
Marwin just had a fantastic season, and his quadruple eligibility means many teams will be in the bidding. And at 29 years old, there will be many GMs willing to take a gamble on the bat. This seems like the type of player right up the Twins' alley, but I ultimately think the Athletics need him more, especially given the hole at first.
Projected contract: A's, 4 years @ $15M/year
DJ Lemahieu 2B
Lemahieu brings a high average, a high run total, and maybe some stolen bases. Not bad for a second baseman that will only be 30 next season. However, I don't know how high the demand will be, since many teams with more than $10M available don't need a second baseman, or they have bigger needs to address. I think the Indians end up moving Cano and signing a long-term replacement that can help them now and over the next few seasons.
Projected contract: Indians, 5 years @ $14M/year
Jed Lowrie 2B
Lowrie enjoyed a career year in 2017, but he still managed to fly under the radar since his numbers weren't eye-popping. Still, Lowrie can help a team win even as he enters his mid-30s. I think he could end up underpaid if he shows anything resembling a repeat performance in 2018. The Yankees have too much money to play with right now, so I think they spend a chunk of it trying to buy a player and turn a profit later.
Projected contract: Yankees, 3 years @ $9M/year
Jonathan Lucroy C
The most exciting (if you want to call him that) catcher on the market would've been much pricier a year ago, but now he's a riskier buy. I think someone pays up in a short-term deal in hopes of pre-2017 production.
Projected contract: Padres, 3 years @ $12M/year
Manny Machado 3B
Machado is perhaps the crown jewel among a fantastic crop of third baseman in this class, and since he's only turning 26 next season, he will almost certainly get the highest contract in free agency. He had a down year, but he could be gaining shortstop eligibility for next season, shooting his value through the roof. I think Twins is ultimately the favorite here since he has the hometown discount and is certainly in need of a 3B/SS.
Projected contract: Twins, 5 years @ $42M/year (before discount)
Russell Martin C
Martin is nothing special, but he represents a good low-cost alternative to Lucroy that could end up being just as good. The Braves don't have a ton of money, but it's enough to get themselves a solid catcher and a starting pitcher in free agency.
Projected contract: Braves, 2 years @ $5M/year
Mike Moustakas 3B
Moose is still just 29 and almost drilled 40 home runs this season, so he will require a pretty penny this offseason. Whether he can repeat that performance is another question, but his realistic floor is still an average producer at third. The Mets' clear need is pitching right now, but they have enough funds to grab their power bat, as well.
Projected contract: Mets, 5 years @ $22M/year
Carlos Santana 1B
Santana isn't anything special, but he's one of the most predictable bats here. With Santana, predictability isn't a bad thing - he will put up good power numbers and walk a ton. The clear fit here is San Diego, whose biggest need is a first baseman and have a ton of money to spend on the best one on the market.
Projected contract: Padres, 3 years @ $20M/year
Justin Turner 3B
Turner is certainly not as sexy a producer as Machado or Donaldson (numbers-wise...the beard is undeniably sexy). However, his great triple-slash line will buoy any lineup. I think this would be a savvy short-term signing for a competitor. My guess is he goes to the Cardinals, who will need to acquire more cap space to make it happen, but they need a 3B and are a few players away from contention.
Projected contract: Cardinals, 4 years @ $23M/year
