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Post by Rays GM on Dec 27, 2017 23:13:17 GMT -5
11. Pittsburgh Pirates
GM: Caleb
2017 Record: Doesn't matter, won the championship
2018 Payroll: $101.60
2019 Payroll: $70.70
2020 Payroll: $73.00
Farm: Below Average
Picks: Some
Notable Batters HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SB
Wil Myers-1B 30 74 .243 .328 .464 20
Matt Carpenter-1B 23 69 .241 .384 .451 2
Corey Seager-SS 22 77 .295 .375 .479 4
Nolan Arenado-3B 37 130 .309 .373 .586 3
Yoenis Cespedes-OF 17 42 .292 .352 .540 0
AJ Pollock-OF 14 49 .266 .330 .471 20
Nomar Mazara-OF 20 101 .253 .323 .422 2
Notable Pitchers ERA K/9 WHIP W SV H
Robbie Ray-SP 2.89 12.1 1.154 15 0 0
Michael Wacha-SP 4.13 8.6 1.358 12 0 0
Justin Verlander-SP 3.36 9.6 1.175 15 0 0
Core Kluber-Sp 2.25 11.7 .869 18 0 0
Tanner Roarck-SP 4.67 8.2 1.335 13 0 0
M. Melancon-RP 4.50 8.7 1.433 1 11 5
It feels wrong to leave a team that just won the the WS out of the top 10, but that's more an indicator of how the strong the top 10 is, how strong the NLC is, and the ticking time bomb with Arenado's FA impending.
Still, this is a really strong roster led by superstar talent. Corey Seager and Nolan Arenado are the strongest 1-2 hitting duo in baseball. They're superstars, and young. No more words needed on them. They'll be joined by double threat Wil Myers, who's shown surprising power and speed in Petco Park. He's got a nice contract, which makes him quite valuable on here. Matt Carpenter was great again last year, and even with a reduced BA, he walked 109 times in relations to 125 K's. He's a fantastic pure hitter, and on a nice contract.
*I also have to show a highlight video of Arenado. He is ridiculous.
There's also a strong group of OF's here. When healthy (he wasn't last year), Cespedes poses as one of the best sluggers in baseball. Imagine trying to get past a core lineup of Seager, Arenado, and Cespy. Terrifying. He's flanked by AJ Pollock, who came back from a lost 2016 year due to injury, and showed a nice 20-20 blend. He didn't reach the highs of 2015, but he's a solid fantasy player nonethless. Caleb will be hoping for more from Nomar Mazara, who had a disappointing, stalled year with limited power and a scary tendency to swing and miss. Still, hitting in a loaded Tex lineup led to a lot of RBI's, which is a nice bonus. If nothing else, you have a solid, young third OF.
The pitching here is electric. Robbie Ray, Corey Kluber, and Justin Verlander will get all the K's. Its going to be up to Caleb to fill out the rest of rotation for depth, although Wacha and Roark are nice back end options. Mark Melancon will hope to bounce back from an ugly year in SF. If he does, Pit has an excellent closing option on the roster.
I guess the only criticism of the roster is that its a bit top heavy, and if injuries come again, there might not be enough to sustain here given the thin farm and limited money to play with. Still, I'm nitpicking here. This roster can go toe to toe with any team in the NL if healthy.
Overall, this ranking comes down to multiple things. There's no clear cut division favorite this year in the NLC, Arenado is a FA next year (and will be costly, even if Caleb does prevail), and the farm lags behind the Cubs and Reds. Still, it wouldn't surprise me if the Pirates won the division this year, and advanced to the WS. The talent here is undeniable; this team has nuclear upside if it all comes together this year. The only question is what comes after.
*If Arenado is gone next year, the team slides a bit into the mid tier teams. If he stays, this is a top 10 team. Putting Pit at 11 is my compromise.
Top Prospects:
1. Michael Chavis-3B/2B
2. Nick Pratto-1B
3. Daulton Varsho-C
4. Luis Garcia-SS
Get ready for the Michael Chavis show. Scouts love his hitting and power ability. The Red Sox love him for his improvements he made this year. I love him because he's the only impact bat left in the minors for that farm. There's rumors swirling the Red Sox want to try him out at 2B next year, which is bold, but they love his bat so much that they're willing to do it. If they pull it off, they're getting a guy with explosive bat speed and power to go along with a refined hitting approach. He's a top 50 guy on my list.
Nick Pratto wasn't great in his debut last year, but he's a got a nice hitting stroke with good, not great, pop. He's got a nice ceiling, and his floor is higher than most 1B prospects. He's a guy to keep an eye on, because the profiles of HS 1B's vary widely.
Luis Garcia signed with the Phillies as an IFA this summer. He's an A plus defender with good hitting mechanis. He might not be a superstar in waiting, but his profile is raised with a high floor, and moderate ceiling. The Phillies gave him $2.5 million to sign.
Daulton Varsho is a weird prospect. He's a mashing catcher with a plus run time. That's right.....he's a fast catcher. His below average arm probably leaves him to a career in the OF, but given his run tool, that might not be too bad. He was taken in the second compensation round by the Dbacks this summer.
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Post by Rays GM on Jan 2, 2018 21:32:12 GMT -5
10. Chicago Cubs
GM: Jason
2017 Record: 188-84-22
2018 Payroll: $126.70
2019 Payroll: $81.75
2020 Payroll: $44.25
Farm: Average
Picks: Moderate
Notable Batters HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SB
Gary Sanchez-C 33 90 .278 .345 .531 2
Jorge Alfaro-C 5 14 .318 .360 .514 0
Anthony Rizzo-1B 32 109 .273 .392 .507 10
Trea Turner-SS 11 45 .284 .338 .451 46
Jonathan Villar-2B 11 40 .241 .293 .372 23
Rougned Odor-2B 30 75 .204 .252 .397 15
Miguel Sano-3B 28 77 .264 .352 .507 0
Mike Trout-OF 33 72 .306 .442 .629 22
M. Mahtook-OF 12 38 .276 .330 .457 6
Keon Broxton-OF 20 49 .220 .299 .420 21
Notable Pitchers ERA K/9 WHIP W SV H
Chris Sale-SP* 2.90 12.9 .970 17 0 0
Kendall Graveman-SP 4.19 6.0 1.386 6 0 0
Gerrit Cole-SP 4.26 8.6 1.251 12 0 0
Dinelson Lamet-SP 4.57 10.9 1.242 7 0 0
Luke Weaver-SP 3.88 10.7 1.260 7 0 0
Jon Lester-SP 4.33 9.0 1.323 13 0 0
S. Doolittle-RP 2.81 10.9 0.857 2 24 9
The 2018 Cubs aren't the "holy shit" juggernauts from last year, thanks to injuries, bad luck, and some cash problems, but there is still serious upside in this team. Guys such as Trea Turner and Gary Sanchez have star upside; Anthony Rizzo, Mike Trout and Chris Sale are stars. The rest of the roster is a bit more perplexing and tricky, and the NL central factor has dinged the team down (like any other team in the division). Any any given moment, there are 4 strong teams in this division fighting it out for supremacy.
The offense is led by Anthony Rizzo and Mike Trout, who are bonafide top 20 players. They should be good for a combined 60 Hr's next year, with 200 RBIs between them. Rizzo is a big part of the team's future, because he's the only one on this team with control and at a cheap rate. Gary Sanchez is for real. With Stanton and Judge in the same lineup, expect him to rack up RBI's now. He's the best hitting catcher in baseball, with an incredibly potent lineup and friendly stadium to cover up his free swinging tendencies. These three guys are the core of the lineup.
The IF here on the team is now in serious flux. Jonathan Villar and Rougned Odor had incredibly disappointing years, and given their propensity to strike out and give away AB's, they're on a quick path on unemployment. Still, there's a lot of potential here, and a bounce back campaign(s) would be a welcome add to the team. Trea Turner is valuable in fantasy because he hits well enough for his speed to take over cats, and given how well he played in 2016 before a drop of in 2017, I think he'll be even better next year.
Miguel Sano would be considered an asset here, but I have serious doubts about his MLB career given these new allegations. Sexual assault is a new frontier for the new commissioner, and I expect him to come down hard on Sano. I won't rule out for his MLB career to be over. No team is going to touch him *if* he's proven guilty. It might be too late anyways.
Aaron Hicks fulfilled his former promise as a top prospect last year, showing off speed and power in the yankees lineup; he was better in the first half, and he slowed down a lot in the second half due to injuries and league adjustments. I don't think he'll be quite as good next year, but he's the Yankees starting CF regardless. Mikie Mahtook and Keon Broxton have interesting fantasy roles, Mahtook for his obp and moderate speed, broxton for power and speed. Jorge Soler is a nice flier who's dominated AAA, but has yet to hit well in MLB.
The pitching side here is a bit weaker. Chris Sale is an an ace on the last two years of his cheap contract, but he'll be followed by an array of pitchers who are middling, filled with potential, on the decline, or hold broken promise. Luke Weaver and Dinelson Lamet are the odd couple on the rise here; Weaver is more pitchability, Lamet is more power, but both have good chances to step forward this year and solidify themselves as future mid rotation guys. Gerrit Cole hasn't pitched liked the ace he was meant to be for two years now, but raw stuff wise, he's tough to beat. He just appears to be one of those "stuff better than results" pitcher, which was a concern back in his UCLA days. He's on the last year of his contract. Jon Lester saw all his peripherals go the wrong way last year, and he's due an awful lot of money for the next two years. He'll probably slide back in as a solid #4 guy in this rotation. Kendall Graveman suffered through some ailments last year, but his contact oriented profile plays up because he pitches in the Coliseum. I like him quite a bit, even though most people value him as a #4.
The bullpen will be backed up by Carson Smith, Ryan Buchter, and Sean Doolittle. The group depends heavily on Carson Smith coming back from injury in full force and showing his strikeout ability in his Mariner days.
I feel fine ranking the Cubs at 10. There's a lot of talent here, but there's clearly a tight cap situation with guys on expiring contracts, plus the division will be intensively competitive for the near future. The biggest plus is the farm here has some impact talent, which is a notch in its belt. Sano's situation pinged the team down a bit, however. MLB is going to come down hard on him.
Still, at the end of the day, this is an elite franchise.
*Chris Sale is the all time leader in K/BB ratio at 5.121. That's pretty amazing, considering this statistic includes relievers (Mariano Rivera checks in at 4.104), and the only guy that has a ratio above 5 is a guy from the 19th century. Chris Sale is our only hope against the Yankees in 2018. Observe:
Top Prospects
1. Alec Hansen-SP
2. Mitch Keller-SP
3. Kolby Allard-SP
4. Ryan Vilade-3B
5. Kevin Maitan-SS
6. Jorge Ona-OF
7. Mario Feliciano-C
8. AJ Minter-RP
8. Zack Burdi-RP
9. Nick Burdi-RP
10. Nolan Martinez-SP
11. Freddy Tarnok-SP
12. Thyago Viera-RP
13. Tyler Austin-1B/OF
14. Kevin Merrell-SS
15. Nick Quintana-SS
16. Cory Abbott-SP
This is a nice farm with impact arms and sleepers down at the bottom separated by middling, but safer prospect. It has the distinction of being deep and top heavy at the same time, if that makes any sense.
Alec Hansen is a monster. Anytime a guy who's 6'7" with a upper 90's fastball and two plus breaking pitches pops up on a prospect list, there's a good chance he'll be number one. He's not as polished and Mitch Keller and Kolby Allard, who are ranked behind him and will reach the majors first, but his ceiling is monstrous. He's a TOR guy if everything comes together.
Ryan Vilade is a guy I should have taken in the 2nd round. He was really impressive in R ball as an 18 year old, showing power, a strong glove, and (my favorite barometer) a strong BB:K rate. He can prove to be an impact regular in time, and considering he plays in Coors, he's a must own there.
Kevin Maitan lost some of stock luster this year, showing increased weight and a less explosive swing, but he held his own as a 17 year old in the Appy league. It's too early to make assumptions.
Jorge Ona is a bit of a free swinger, and he was merely okay as a 20 year old in A ball, but this is a guy who's physically imposing and hulking. He's got plenty of raw power, and he fits the RF prototype.
Mario Feliciano is a catcher with offensive upside, but he might not stay at catcher. Same old story.
Minter, Burdi, and Burdi are a trio of impact relieving arms. They'll definitely make some sort of dent in the majors at one point (minter already has, and pitched well too), but the Burdi's are below Minter because they're coming back from major arm injuries. Still, all reports point to their stuff being electric.
I like Nolan Martinez and Freddy Tarnok a lot. Martinez can really spin a curveball, but he's had injury issues. Tarnok is a late bloomer, but is quite projectable and has nice breaking pitches. They're breakout candidates.
Thyago Viera has a monster fastball, but he's more "raw power" than pitcher, which is why his control and feel for pitching is subpar. He's another high ceiling reliever in a farm full of them.
Kevin Merrell is a speedy IF who's probably moving to CF at some point. He's come a long way with the bat, and projects to be a top of the lineup hitter in the majors after hitting well in A- this year, and despite his size, there's some pop here.
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Post by Rays GM on Jan 3, 2018 0:53:13 GMT -5
9. San Diego Padres
GM: Noah
2017 Record: 100-171-23 2018 Payroll: $63.40 2019 Payroll: $37.95 2020 Payroll: $31.30
Farm: Below Average Picks: Below Average Notable Batters HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SBAustin Hedges-C 18 55 .214 .262 .398 4 Tim Anderson-SS 17 56 .257 .276 .402 15 Kris Bryant-3B 29 73 .295 .409 .537 7 Dee Gordon-CF/2B 2 33 .308 .341 .375 60 Manuel Margot-CF 13 39 .263 .313 .409 17 Josh Reddick-OF 13 82 .314 .363 .484 7 Carlos Gomez-OF 17 51 .255 .340 .462 13 Kyle Schwarber-OF 30 59 .211 .315 .467 1 Notable Pitchers ERA K/9 WHIP W SV HMax Scherzer-SP 2.51 12.0 .902 16 0 0 Carlos Martinez-SP 3.64 9.5 1.220 12 0 0 Noah Syndergaard-SP 2.97 10.1 1.055 1 0 0 Aaron Sanchez-SP 4.25 6.0 1.722 1 0 0 Taijuan Walker-SP 3.49 8.4 1.328 9 0 0 Tyler Glasnow-SP 7.69 8.4 2.016 2 0 0 Kenta Maeda-SP 4.22 9.4 1.154 13 0 0 Raises Iglesias-CP 2.49 10.9 1.11 3 28 0 Hector Rondon-RP 4.24 10.8 1.22 4 0 10 Adam Warren-RP 2.35 8.48 .87 3 1 11 This was a brutal choice to pick at 9. Frankly, any teams from here until 4 can be switched around, and I don't think I can make much of an argument for or against that team. There's a lot of good teams here with various strengths who play in different divisions, so at this point, the rankings become about splitting hairs and nails and coming to an answer that will satisfy no one. As it is, because Noah lost our snapchat streak, he gets bumped down a notch. The Padres will open up the 2018 season as the main challenger to the Giants in the NL West, but you could make a good argument the friars have already surpassed the Giants. Regardless of what happens, this is a team with lots of cash to spend to flesh out a talented, albeit volatile core group of players. If everything clicks for this team, the Padres will be the prohibitive favorites in the division for years to come. Let's start with the offense. Kris Bryant? He's a given, a stud, a top 10 guy who's consistent and threatening despite a small power drop last year. This teams revolves around him. Around him are a bunch of talented players who have inconsistent track records. Kyle Schwarber can swing the fate of this franchise around; that's how gifted he is. When he's on, his power and swing is as lethal as they come. The question is: Was last year a mirage, a slump, or a sign that ML pitchers figured him out? Every report about him in the offseason has spoken glowingly about his lost weight, but the bigger problem may his swing and miss tendencies. A 30% k rate isn't desirable, and he's going to have to improve his defense for the NL teams to roster him. Interestingly, in the second half, when he had a mild resurgence, his BA and OBP hovered around the .240 and .340 mark, but his OPS peaked in the low .900's. I think that might be his true talent level -- below average BA and OBP, but plus power (for a corner OF). He won't be the MVP player his MILB record suggested, but he might make a few all star teams here and there. Dee Gordon will be the guy who's going to win the SB's Cat for Noah. He isn't quite the player he was before being busted for PED's, but he's a plenty valuable guy in CF. Raul Mondesi and Tim Anderson are some of the most gifted middle IF's in baseball, but both have serious swing and miss issues. Noah might need one of them to click, because the IF is mighty thin after Bryant. In the OF, inconsistency and prodigious physical tools are embodied by the duo of Josh Reddick and Carlos Gomez. Reddick had a big bounce back year for the WS winners, showing his moderate power and speed along with a high OBP approach. He's a real moneyball player. Carlos Gomez had a solid season for the Rangers, but his maddening track record of injuries, apathy, free swinging tendencies makes me feel like he's walking a thin line between all star and combustion. Manuel Margot is the younger, healthier version of Carlos Gomez. The pitching here is really strong, but aside from Scherzer and Martinez, there's a wide range of outcomes here. Syndergaard is wildly talented, but he clearly pushed himself too far last year. I think he'll be fine when he comes back, but injuries are injuries, and nothing is written. Aaron Sanchez is a strong sinkerballer, but he's also coming back from a major injury too. It would be best to wait and see here and what happens with these guys. Until then, I'm knocking the Padres a bit until they show they've come back fully healthy. Tyler Glasnow has been pretty disappointing for a guy with the stuff and the MILB numbers he has. A lot of people are pushing him to be a reliever, which I find insulting. Guys with that frame, stuff, and moxie don't just fall out of trees. You put him in the starting rotation until he Vin Mazzaro's and explodes.
Until Thor, Sanchez, and Glasnow can recapture their former promise, the #3 guy in this rotation will be Taijuan Walker. Walker was really quite excellent last year, and a big part of that was him reducing his HR/9 rate, which was surprising given a) the baseball was juiced last year and b) he moved from Safeco to Chase field. We'll see if that holds up, but he made a lot of strides last year as a pitcher. Kenta Maeda is a very good fit as a backend starter on this team. He might be seen as a back end guy given his stature on the Dodgers, but he strikes out a healthy amount of guys and limits walks. He'll open up the 2018 season with a strong grasp on the #5 starter job in LA. Martin Perez would be a good #6 guy here, but he broke his arm in a horse riding accident. Remember when he was a top 20 prospect? Mike Mikolas won't get a lot of buzz, but he's come back from Japan with an idea of how to hit spots, and use two effective breaking pitches despite a middling fastball. He's not anything more than a #4, but given he now plays for the Cardinals, look for him to surprise people early on nxt season. The bullpen here is quite solid, actually. Raisel Iglesias is a terrific fantasy asset given his closer role on the Reds, and his cheap two year contract. Adam Warren was a valuable innings eating reliever last year, and Will Smith is coming back from TJ surgery and a few bad movies. Hector Rondon is a terrific K's artist, but he's far too hittable for a guy with stuff like his. He was cut by the Cubs for his contract, but he'll find another middle relief job somewhere else. This is a volatile team, which I admit I said for other teams on the ranking here too. The difference is this team is much more talented, has oodles of cash and the resulting upside is immense. There's a dynasty lurking if things go right here. Don't be surprised if Noah is number one next year. Top Prospects1. Michael Baez-SP 2. Luis Urias-2B 3. Yandy Diaz-3B 4. Hagen Danner-C 5. Tristan Beck-SP 6. Nick Plummer-OF 7. Ariel Jurado-SP 8. Norge Ruiz-SP Aside from the top 2, this is a pretty barren farm. Michael Baez is already a big name spec, but he's going to lurch further into the national spotlight when the offseason ends and the new prospect lists come out. He's got a plus-plus fastball along with a chance for two solid breaking pitches, and his command has come a long way. He was dominant in A ball as a 21 year old, and he'll look to build upon that next year. Luis Urias isn't the sexiest of prospects, but he's a high AVG/OBP guy who moderated speed and little power. He won't carry teams, but he'll hit for a .300/.400/.380 line for the next decade. Yandy Diaz has a great approach, but he's blocked in CLE. Hagen Danner looked pretty bad in his pro debut last year, and he might be switched to pitching next year to take advantage of that arm strength. Tristan Beck went back to Stanford after falling in the draft due to a back issue, but talent wise, he should be in the 2nd round next year. Nick Plummer is a very physical OF, but he's struggled with injuries these last few years. Jurado and Ruiz were well regard pitching specs some time ago, but they're lack of swing and miss ability might force their teams to push them into a bullpen role.
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Post by Rays GM on Jan 3, 2018 17:26:30 GMT -5
8. San Francisco Giants
Gm: Paul
2017 Record: 208-76-10
2018 Payroll: $95.05
2019 Payroll: $53.50
2020 Payroll: $36.25
Farm: Average
Picks: Below Average
Notable Batters HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SB
Jason Castro-C 10 47 .242 .333 .388 0
Miguel Cabrera-1B 16 60 .249 .329 .399 0
Brian Dozier-2B 34 93 .271 .359 .498 16
Marcus Semien-SS 10 30 .249 .325 .398 12
Eduaro Nunez-3B 12 58 .313 .341 .460 24
Marcel Ozuna-OF 37 124 .312 .376 .548 1
Billy Hamilton-OF 4 38 .247 .299 .335 59
Bradley Zimmer-OF 8 39 .241 .307 .385 18
Hunter Renfroe-OF 26 58 .231 .284 .467 3
Notable Pitchers ERA K/9 WHIP W SV H
Yu Davrish-SP 3.86 10.1 1.163 10 0 0
Alex Wood-SP 2.72 8.3 1.057 16 0 0
Danny Duffy-SP 3.81 8.0 1.257 9 0 0
Gio Gonzalez-SP 2.96 8.4 1.179 15 0 0
Kyle Hendricks-SP 3.03 7.9 1.189 7 0 0
Edwin Diaz-RP 3.27 12.1 1.15 4 34 2
Roberto Osuna-CP 3.38 11.7 .86 3 39 0
T.Rosenthal-RP 3.40 14.4 1.20 3 11 12
Corey Knebel-RP 1.78 14.9 1.16 1 39 11
B.Broxberger-RP 3.38 12.27 1.16 4 0 5
Zach Duke-RP 3.93 5.89 1.04 1 0 6
I'm not entirely sure on ranking the Giants above the Padres, but the cap situation is relatively similar here once you account for expiring contracts, and the farm is a bit deeper on this roster. I think this is an excellent team that might need some retooling next year in a strong division.
As it is, this is a well balanced team. On the offensive side, a lot of the potency of the offense depends on Miguel Cabrera, and whether that sudden drop off last year was concrete or not. I'll give him a pass this time around -- he was suffering from herniated back discs last year, and he seems determined this offseason to improve his leg and core strength to relieve himself of any more back pain. I think he comes back and hits at an all star level for a couple more years. Still, that contract makes him an awfully risky asset, and the end of that contract won't be pretty at all.
At least Miggy won't be counted to lead the offense. Fun Fact: Brian Dozier hit 34 HR's last year.
Brian Dozier!
These past three years combined, Dozier has hit 104 HR's playing in one of the biggest ballaparks in the AL. He had 16 HR's total in 4 minor league seasons, and had only 47 HR's in his first 3 ML seasons. Watching his career progress has been fascinating -- he'll command a hefty contract next offseason as one of the premier power hitters in the game. Between him, Jake Lamb, and Miggy, the SF IF is going to top 100 HR's easily next year, especially when you consider Eduaro Nunez and Marcus Semien have a surprising amount of pop. This isn't a group that will hit for a particularly high average and OBP, but it will have plenty of power to compensate.
The OF is a bit more shaky beyond all star Marcell Ozuna (Who is now the Cardinal's best player). Bradley Zimmer's end of year stats aren't terribly impressive, but he was doing well until a disastrous September crushed his numbers. I think that was a bit flukey, and he'll come back next year with his plus speed and patient approach. He's not a sexy player, but he's a fine table setter. Billy Hamilton is the same old story -- he's aggressively useless in the batting box, but his plus plus speed means he'll always hold fantasy value. Hunter Renfroe had impressive power numbers this year, but he struggles heavily with plate coverage and swinging and missing. He's a guy who can go in either direction next year.
The pitching here is strong. Danny Duffy and Gio Gonzalez had strong years for lefties famous with their ups and downs, while Yu Darvish, asides from a disastrous, flukey WS appearance, still will provide K's and in spades for the team that is lucky enough to scoop him up. Alex Wood is a pitcher who will continue to face durability questions as his fastball velo slipped as the year went on last year. Still, he was quite excellent last year, and give the health questions with virtually every Dodger starter, he'll remain the rotation for some time. Kyle Hendricks wasn't quite as good as 2016, as his BABIP regressed to normal levels, and he became a bit more homer prone, but he's still a valuable #3 starter who control and smarts over power.
The bullpen here is incredible; it has an argument for being the best in ODC. Robert Osuna was excellent as a closer last year, showing the rare ability to limit HR's, walks, and pile up K's as a reliever. He might be only 22, but he's a lot less volatile than closers with bigger names. He'll be joined by power pitchers such as Trevor Rosenthal, Edwin Diaz, Cory Knebel, and Brad Boxberger. A sleeper to watch is Zach Duke, who came back from TJ last year and signed with the Twins. He might become a high leverage reliever in that bullpen.
Given everything I've gone over, I feel pretty good about this being a top 10 team. There isn't a weak aspect of the team, and the farm is unusually robust for a team that just won 200 games last year. I guess the only problem is that that this team is going to be very expensive very soon, with Ozuna and Dozier set for FA next year, and Darvish set to command a lucrative contract this offseason.
Top Prospects
1. Max Fried-SP
2. Dillon Tate-SP
3. James Kaprelian-SP
4. Marcus Wilson-OF
5. TJ Zeuch-SP
6. Blake Hunt-C
7. Landon Leach-SP
8. Oscar De La Cruz-SP
9. Will Craig-1B
10. Daniel Cabrera-OF
11. Franmil Reyes-OF
12. Daulton Jeffries-SP
12. Thomas Burrows-RP
Max Fried has ridiculous stuff:
There's very few people in professional baseball who can compete with that stuff. After a slow start in AA this year, he caught fire, and finished with a bang in the AFL. He's has real #2 upside, and is one of my faves. What a beast.
The funny thing is, the guy right behind him on this list, Dillon Tate, also possesses terrific stuff. The problem is, he's much less consistent, and that inconsistency and small stature of his means a lot of people want him to become a reliever. That's fine, but his ceiling is a mid rotation starter with killer stuff. He'll open up next year at AA at 24 years or of age.
James Kaprelian also has ridiculous......well you get the idea. The reason Kap is listed lower is because he can never stay healthy. In that way, he's similar to Oscar De La Cruz, who has frontline stuff but has never stayed healthy for long periods of time, which is why the Cubs are thinking of moving him to the pen. For shame. These 4 guys all possess ace stuff, but there's a good chance only Fried ever capitalizes on his potential.
Marcus Wilson is a really solid, underrated spec who's toolsy and is starting to figure out how to hit. He'll need more seasoning in the minors, and he's a still a couple of years away from the Majors, but he took some steps this year.
TJ Zeuch gets a nod as guy who should be a solid mid rotation starter. He'll move fast. Blake Hunt is an D minded catcher, who's physical and athletic, but his bat drags and needs more refinement. Landon Leach was a highly drafted power pitcher in the Twins system. He just turned 18 this year, but with a chance for 3 good pitches, his ceiling is high.
Will Craig has seen his stock fade, as while he draws a lot of walks, his power leaves a lot to be desired. He's 23, and has never reached AA. Time is ticking. Daulton Jeffries has all the makings of a #4 starter, but he just had TJ surgery. Thomas Burrows is a lefty reliever who dominated in A ball this year, and can move fast.
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Post by Rays GM on Jan 4, 2018 16:40:45 GMT -5
7. New York Yankees
GM: Justin
2017 Record: 127-139-28
2018 Payroll: $66.05
2019 Payroll: $21.00
2020 Payroll: $0.00
Farm: Very Strong
Picks: Plenty
Notable Batters HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SB
Austin Barnes-C 8 38 .289 .408 .486 4
Sam Travis-1B 0 1 .263 .325 .342 1
Travis Shaw-3B 31 101 .273 .349 .513 10
Matt Chapman-3B 14 40 .234 .313 .472 0
Ian Happ-OF 24 68 .253 .328 .514 8
Ben Gamel-OF 11 59 .275 .322 .413 4
Max Kepler-OF 19 69 .243 .312 .425 6
T. Hernandez-OF 8 20 .305 .602 .908 0
Notable Pitchers ERA K/9 WHIP W SV H
Luis Castillo-SP 3.12 9.9 1.075 3 0 0
Blake Snell-SP 4.04 8.3 1.330 5 0 0
Chad Kuhl-SP 4.35 8.1 1.468 8 0 0
Nick Pivetta-SP 6.02 9.5 1.511 8 0 0
Zach Davies-SP 3.90 5.8 1.354 17 0 0
Sal Romano-SP 4.45 7.6 1.471 5 0 0
J. Musgrove-RP 4.77 8.1 1.33 7 2 5
Francis Marters-RP 5.80 11.4 1.51 5 0 2
Alex Claudio-RP 2.50 6.1 1.04 4 11 8
So.
The Yankees are poised to be the next powerhouse in the AL, fueled by an (incredibly) deep farm, a clean cap situation, and a ML roster that is young, fun, and going through growing pains. The team is in the midst of a transformation from rebuilder to contender, and should be a playoff threat as soon as next year. Despite playing in the loaded AL East, which has a nice blend of strong MLB teams and deep MILB farms, the Yankees have the distinction of being the most balanced on both sides of the equation.
On the hitting side, Austin Barnes and Travis Shaw are already one of the best players at their respective positions. Barnes pulled the Dodgers starting catcher job from Yasmani Grandal as the year went on, showing a potent blend of power, patience, and contact ability. He'll be a guy who's going to explode on the national scene soon. Shaw, meanwhile, bounced back from a sluggish 2016 season with the Red Sox, to deliver a thunderous campaign with the Brewers. I would hold my judgement on him until he has a repeat season, because Shaw has known to be a streaky hitter at times in his ML hitter. Still, 30 bombs is nothing to sneeze at. I have higher hopes for his backup, Matt Chapman, simply because he has a plus plus glove, with a strong arm and plenty of lighting in his bat. He'll have a lock on the A's starting 3B job starting next year. Sam Travis is probably not the answer at 1B.
In the OF, Ian Happ delivered on his promise, showing power but striking out a bit too much for my liking. He'll need to shore up his plate approach to make further strides into the next year. Max Kepler runs into the same issues too, but both are young enough where you can project further improvement to tap into their power. Teoscar Hernandez is also a guy I've kept an eye on, because he shows pop and speed, albeit with a dangerous affinity to striking out and not taking enough walks.
The pitching side is similarly talented and young, with Luis Castillo showing serious #2 ability on a downtrodden Reds staff. His stuff is nasty, showing a plus plus fastball and plus slider:
Blake Snell also possesses premium stuff, and after a shaky start to his ML career, was much better after being sent down midseason and coming back up. He'll be a breakout candidate for next year, assuming his growth this year was concrete. Chad Kuhl is a fireballer for the pirates, and after adding a curve early last season, his K rate crept up as the year went on. He still needs some polishing, given his BB rate was a bit too high for him to be a #3 guy, but the potential is there. Nick Pivetta is another power arm on a team filled with power arms, but his lack of control and middling secondary stuff might mean he might get shifted to the bullpen. Zach Davies is the exception here, as his lack of power stuff means he has to rely on a groundball profile to succeed in the bigs. Sal Romano possesses a strong, mid 90's fastball, and finished last year on a strong note. He has a good chance to start again in the Reds rotation, and should be a fine backend starter in fantasy. Joe Musgrove was awful as a starter early on in the year for the Astros, but after shifting to the bullpen, he became a multi-innings weapons reliever. His diverse array of pitches makes him a valuable asset for any team. Francis Martes was a big name a year ago, but his control problems might relegate him to the bullpen. He'll most likely wind up in AAA starting next year, in the hopes that he works on his craft to become a #3 starter with premium stuff. Alex Claudio is a soft tossing, side-arming reliever who doesn't strike out anybody but still excels in the HR friendly Arlington ballpark. Yeah, I don't get it either:
Overall, this is an exciting team with young players at various stages in their development. It might take a year or two for them to fully mature, which is why I won't place the Yankees in the top 5 just yet. I think Justin is the type of GM, who, instead of making big win now moves, prioritizes organic development to build a team that can compete year in and year out. But still, a deep farm and clean cap situation gives him the flexibility to make a move if he chooses to, and this team can sneak up on a lot of people. In fact, if a lot of the young players on the ML roster make a step forward next year, it wouldn't shock me if the team steals a WC this year. With this team, the sky is the ceiling.
Top Prospects
1. Scott Kingery-2B
2. Willy Adames-SS
3. Triston McKenzie-SP
4. Bo Bichette Jr-SS
5. Carter Kieboom-SS
6. Monte Harrison-OF
7. Cole Ragans-SP
8. Brian Anderson-3B
9. Aramis Ademan-SS
10. Shane Baz-SP
11. Hans Crouse-SP
12. Jeren Kendall-OF
13. Nicky Lopez-SS
14. Colton Welker-3B
15. Corey Ray-OF
16. Khalil Lee-OF
17. Daniel Johnson -OF
18. Breiling Eusebio-SP
19. Nelson Velasquez-OF
20. Lucas Ercerg-3B
21. Dustin May-SP
22. Chris Seise-SS
23. Daniel Montano-OF
24. Nick Neidert-SP
25. Jhoan Duran - SP
26. Bryse Wilson-SP
27. Zack Granite-OF
28. Logan Allen-SP
29. Chris Rodriguez-SP
30. Yency Almonte-SP
31. Connor Greene -SP
32. Max Schrock-2B
33. Brailyn Marquez-SP
34. Thomas Szapucki-SP
35. Tyler Wade-2B
36. Derian Cruz-SS
37. Adrian Rondon-SS
38. Yairo Munoz-2B
39. Edwin Rioz-1B
40. Zack Collins-C
41. Chase Vallot-C
42. Tyler Nevin-3B
43. JT Chargois-SP/RP
44.Trent Deveaux-SS
45.Travis Macgregor-SP
46. Braden Bishop-OF
47. Canaan Smith-OF
48.Luis Alexander Basabe-OF
49.Tyler Beede-SP
50.Miguel Aparicio-OF
51.Charlie Tilson-OF
52. Luiz Gonzalez-OF
53. David Banuelos-C
54. Michel Miliano-SP
55.Justin Lopez-SS
56. Mason Martin -1B
57.Riley Mahan -2B
58.Thomas Jones-OF
59.Jake Mangum-OF
60. Brayan Gonzalez-2B
61. Juan Querecuto-SS
I'm pretty sure Justin and I are not going to agree on this list, but I'm going with this anyways because there's so many interesting guys to write about, and this is my general feel on how I'd value them in a trade.
The Yankees farm excels mostly because of how deep it is, although there's some very good specs at the top. I think there's about 60 guys of noteworthy inclusion here, which is far more than I've written about for any other farm.
I feel pretty good about having Scott Kingery at the top. He's got plus speed, plus power, a high contact rate, and is a plus defender at 2B, which makes him one of the rarest commodities in fantasy. There aren't many flaws here, and his upside is a perennial all star player.
I'm the low guy on Willy Adames, because there isn't one tool he has that screams out on you, but he's a well rounded, safe SS prospect that should debut next year. He's a bit overshadowed by guys like Triston McKenzie and Bo Bichette; Mckenzie for his incredible projectability and chance for multiple plus pitches to go along with advanced command, and Bichette for his pure hitting ability with plus raw power. BB is ranked lower because he might not play at a premium defensive position at the end of the day.
Carter Kieboom has a plus name to go along with a well rounded toolset that features a chance to hit for 25 HR's one day in the big leagues as a middle IF. He's a bit aggressive at times, but he walloped single A at the age of 19 this year.
Monte Harrison is a guy to keep an eye on. This guy is a premium premium athlete -- strong as hell, fast, with a cannon arm. Also, he plays CF. The upside here is an all star player, if he can continue to refine his hitting approach.
Cole Ragans is an unusual lefty, possessing a below average fastball with a plus plus change and a chance for plus control. He's gotten some Cole Hamels comparision, but he's not quite as athletic. Still, if he adds some velocity, he could move up this list quickly.
Aramis Ademan is unreasonably polished for someone so young, and while he's not a current power threat, as he fills out, he can grow into some pop to complement his high OBP approach. I've read he has a strong chance to stay at SS.
Brian Anderson came into the year regarded as a strong defender at 3B, and his breakout year (including a scorching stay at AAA) has led people to believe he can be a well rounded hitter at the highest level, if not a star.
Shane Baz, Hans Crouse, and Jeren Kendall are a trio of tantalizing, high upside prospects that were drafted this year. Baz possesses a power fastball to go along with a diverse array of pitches, while Crouse has a power curve and FB combo few can match. He was incredible in the AZl as an 18 year old this year. Kendall has a chance to be a 5 tool star, but has serious swing and miss concerns.
Nick Lopez is a sparkplug, and a fave of mine. He combines speed with a high avg and OBP approach, and he has a good chance to stay at SS. If it all comes together, he profiles as a top of the lineup hitter. Colton Welker is an O minded 3B, whos coming off a good year, while Khalil Lee and Corey Ray combine plus athletic abilities with pop and an inclination to take walks. I'm higher on Lee because of his age appropriate performance at single A this year. Ray has been pretty disappointing given his draft position. Daniel Johnson is now the 3rd best OF spec in that nats system, as he started hitting this year after years of showing off his physical tools with little on the field performance. Breiling Eusebio has a chance for three solid or better pitches, and there aren't many flaws with him as a spec. More experience will help him grow, and while he's a bit raw now, lefties with a chance for a mid 90's fastball and two plus breaking pitches don't just grow on tree.
I am an unabashed Nelson Velasquez fan. Sure, he might not have a clue on how to recognize pitches and how to approach an at bat, but he's young, and good lord, that bat speed and power is hard to find. He crushes baseballs. He's a guy who can be a quick riser.
Chris Seise was a guy I liked in the draft, and he joins the long line of well rounded Yankee SS prospects with offensive potential. Dustin May looks like an NBA player, standing at 6'6", and he pairs a plus fastball with a trio of solid secondary pitches. For someone so large, he also has good command over his pitches, and given his frame, he has room to add weight and up his stuff. I have him above Chris Rodriguez, who a lot of people like as the angels top pitching spec (*cough*, Jose Soriano, *cough*), but he has a 4 pitch mix that lets him strike out hitters while keeping things on the ground.
Nick Neidert, Jhoan Duran, and Bryse Wilson are different in so many ways, the Neidert goes first because he has the best chance to start, while Duran has the highest ceiling (6'5", 175 lbs, chance for a plus curve), and Bryse, despite a strong showing this year with a power fastball, might end up in the bullpen as he's a bit stocky and his secondaries are meh.
Zack Granite is underrated because of his lack of power, but he has a high contact, OBP, speed profile that is more than useful in fantasy. Connor Greene has serious power stuff, but he's coming off a terrible year in AA and needs serious polishing for his command. Max Schrock packs some offensive punch as a smallish 2B, while Brailyn Marquez is a projectable lefty armed with a plus fastball and a chance to develop some breaking pitches. He's a project, but he has a high ceiling. Thomas Szapucki was a well regard Mets pitching spec, but he went down with an injury. Despite his promising ceiling of a ML starter, he's prone to injury and might shift to the pen at some point. Daniel Montano was a high priced IFA a couple years ago, but I like his polished ability to hit, and a chance to develop into average power and speed in CF. Tyler Wade projects to be a utility guy who can hit, and he'll start at 2B this year until Gleyber is ready. Derian Cruz got 2 million dollars as an IFA a couple year ago and his double plus speed has carried him as he starts to develop some power. He's a long ways away, but a guy who can steal 30 bases with moderate pop at SS is a valuable spec.
Adrian Rondon has been pretty disappointing for a guy his stature. Physically, he's the not the same guy he was when he first signed, and he might move to 3rd now. I like Yairo Munoz's chance to be a super utility guy for the A's one day. Edwin Rios has gotten some buzz after mashing in AAA last year, but he was a bit old and he's blocked in LA. Where does he go next?
Zack Collins and Chase Vallot were catchers who struggled with swing and miss issues. I believe in Collins' hitting upside more, but I like Vallot's chances to catch better. Trent Deveaux is a premium athlete with elite speed, and his projectable frame means he'll add some power one day. He's far away, but he has a chance to be a premium player at CF one day. He doesn't turn 18 until next may.
Travis Macgregor is a project with a nice fastball and not much else. He's a good athlete tho, and the pirates always seem to develop guys like this. JT Chargois gets a mention on here because he has a 100 MPH fastball with decent enough control and secondaries, but he underwent TJ surgery this year. Braden Bishop is an underrated spec who has speed and defense on his side, and he showed an excellent approach at AA this year (albeit at 23 years old). I think he can grow into a nice utility OF one day, maybe even more.
I'm not sure on Justin Lopez and his bat, but what a graceful defender. He's a gazelle in the field. Mason Martin dominated in R ball, but he's a 1B, and he's going to have to hit this well to become a ML player. We'll see if he continues to do so. I've never been a fan of Tyler Beede, because of his okay stuff, and now that he's injured, his stock has dropped. Charlie Tilson had a chance to be a high average CF for the CWS this year, but then he got injured. I've read a lot of good things about Aparicio's defense and high contact abilities, and he has a chance for moderate power as he grows. He more than held his own in A- this year as an 18 year old. Luis Gonzalez was drafted by the CWS in the 3rd, and he looks to be a well rounded OF prospect. Michel Miliano is a deep sleeper in the padres system, a projectable pitcher who struggled a bit in the AZL this year with control, but he was only 17. He's light years away, but he's the kind of guy I would have targeted in the rule V. David Banuelos was bought by the Twins from the Mariners for IFA money, and he's a D minded catcher who needs more development at the plate, as he swings and misses quite a bit. He profiles as a backup catcher with a below average hit tool but average power.
*Edit*
Oops. I forgot about JB Bukauskas and Danny Jansen. JB is a bit short, but he's got electric stuff. I'm surprised he fell to the Astros outside of the top 10. Danny Jansen was a guy I was about to take in the rule V, but Justin got him first. He broke out after fixing his vision, and I think he can hit at the highest level. I think I'd put JB behind Kendall and Jansen behind Velasquez.
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Post by Rays GM on Jan 6, 2018 23:18:46 GMT -5
6. Minnesota Twins
GM: Pat
2017 Record: 203-74-17
2018 Payroll: $52.00
2019 Payroll: $64.40
2020 Payroll: $22.60
Farm: Average
Picks: Few
Notable Batters HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SB
Evan Gattis-C 12 55 .263 .311 .457 0
Justin Bour-1B 25 83 .289 .366 .536 1
Chris Taylor-2B 21 72 288 .354 .496 17
Cesar Hernandez-2B 9 34 .294 .373 .421 15
Manny Machado-3B 33 95 .259 .310 .471 9
Steven Souza-LF 30 78 .239 .351 .459 16
Jose Martinez-RF 14 46 .309 .379 .518 4
Nelson Cruz-DH 39 119 .288 .375 .549 1
Notable Pitchers ERA K/9 WHIP W SV H
Clayton Kershaw-SP 2.31 10.4 .949 18 0 0
Michael Fulmer-SP 3.83 6.2 1.154 10 0 0
Alex Meyer-SP 3.74 10.0 1.337 4 0 0
Kyle Gibson-SP 5.07 6.9 1.532 12 0 0
Junir Guerra-SP 5.12 8.6 1.479 1 0 0
Jharel Cotton -SP 5.58 7.3 1.442 9 0 0
J. Hoffman-SP 5.89 7.4 1.470 6 0 0
K. Jansen-CP 1.62 14.4 0.75 5 41 1
A. Colome-CP 3.24 7.83 1.20 2 47 1
Chad Green-RP 1.83 13.3 0.74 5 0 9
Keon Kela-RP 2.79 11.7 0.91 4 2 11
The Twins have one of the most intriguing rosters in ODC, full of twists and oddities. They have the best pitcher in baseball, but the strange thing is the starting pitching is the (relative) weak link here. The farm is barren beyond two guys, but those two guys by themselves are better than the half of the farms in the league. And then there's the offense, filled with underrated players and late bloomers, complemented by one singular star talent, that will drive this team for the next few years. Once you add an elite bullpen featuring big names and loads of saves, this is a team that can go toe to toe with any team in the league for the next few years.
The offense will be led by (once he's resigned) Manny Machado. I imagine someone is going to throw him a lot of money in FA, but given that the market is saturated with star 3B, no one is going to pony up the money that will pry him away from Pat (probably 50 million is the amount needed to get it done). Instead, people are going to wait out Turner, Donaldson and (next off season), Arenado. Machado had an okay year last year by his standards, but he caught fire in the second half, and his superstar talent can't be ignored. At some point, he'll be joined by Gleyber Torres, who I'll write up later, which means Pat will bet set on the left side of the IF for the next half decade. The newly acquired Cesar Hernandez is a shrewd acquisition, as he provides a strong OBP and moderate speed package.
Meanwhile, Justin Bour and Chris Taylor are examples of late career bloomers, and Bour burst on the national scene via the HR derby, and Taylor put away a frustrating start to his career in Seattle. Bour might seem like a fad, but he's been solid for 3 years now, and the only thing keeping him from greater recognition is his playing team. Taylor, I'm a little cooler to, because of his 25% K rate and high babip last year, and his late season fade. Still, he has power and speed, and those aren't common for middle IF's. He'll be an interesting guy to watch for next year.
The OF is solid. Steven Souza is a low avg, high OBP, power threat in the OF. In other words, he looks like an Oakland Athletic already. Jose Martinez is yet another STL position player who has exceeded all expectations. He possesses a strong eye and while his breakout season was partly BABIP fueled, he has a strong chance to stick in the bigs because he's a RH hitter who held his own against righties last year, but also mashed lefties to the tune of a .407 BA with 7 HR's in only 59 AB's. That's mind boggling. Nelson Cruz is an ageless wonder. He'll be 37 next year, but his peripherals have held steady, and his contract is a steal.
As a RH hitter hitting in Safeco, it's amazing that he's doing what he's doing, but he has grown man power:
The pitching is going to need some work, but it has youth and upside. Clayton Kershaw needs no introduction. He'll be the ace here. Michael Fulmer isn't much of a K artist, but he's a groundball artist, and in spacious Comerica Park, he has a good chance at another mid 3 ERA season. Alex Meyer was having a promising season as a SP this year, showing his usual power stuff with just enough command when he tore his shoulder labrum. It's a brutal injury, in which many pitchers don't make it back, or when they do, they come back diminished. Kyle Gibson is an enigma. He was awful in the first half of the season, but when he came back up, he was more aggressive attacking batters up in the zone while relying on his slider more and more as an out pitch. I'm not sure he'll ever be the #3 guy he was drafted to be, but he'll be a solid back end guy who gets groundballs and pulls in some K's. His adjustments were concrete.
Jharel Cotton is a guy with plus stuff, but his command leaves much to be desired. He went through with some growing pains last year, but he'll first need to focus on controlling his HR's given up. He has midrotation potential, but a move to the bullepen isn't out of question. Jeff Hoffman is a similarly talented arm, but Coors took the bite out of his stuff and he slowed down as the year went on, with his FB velocity nosediving. He'll compete for a spot in the rotation with Kyle Freeland, who was taken a spot before him in the 2014 draft. Junior Guerra struggled after an oblique injury last year, and his numbers regressed from his breakout 2016 season. He has a good chance to break into the thin MIL rotation, but he's kind of the forgotten man on that staff. Despite all this, if a couple of these guys rebound, this rotation has a chance to be very solid for the upcoming year.
The bullpen is a strong point on this team. Alex Colome and Kenley Jansen are the big name star closers here, but Chad Green was sublime last year, showing power stuff that he hadn't shown before when starting. Those three will form the heads of this bullpen, although I will note Colome's 2017 was a step down from his 2016 season. Keon Kela is poised to take on a bigger role next year in the rangers bullpen, after showing more polish with his power stuff last year. He's a potential breakout guy, and he's the cherry on top of one of the best bullpens in ODC.
Overall, I like this team a lot, and not just for this year. There's a strong core set in the place for the next few years, and there's some wiggle room with cap to make a move. The only thing holding me back from a higher placement is the competition the Twins are going to have to face in the ALC. This is one of the best teams in the AL, but given how strong the division is, it's going to be a brutal fight for the divisional crown for the next few years.
Top Prospects
1. Gleyber Torres-SS
2. Carson Kelly-C
3. Brian Miller-OF
4. Anthony Santander-OF
5. Marco Hernandez-IF
6. Christopher Torres-IF
7. Jordan Johnson-SP
8. Evan Skoug-C
9. Tyler Danish-SP
10. Ricky Aracena-SS
11. Kohl Stewart
12. Giovany Gallegos-RP
Gleyber Torres has a chance to be a franchise player. He's an astounding natural hitter, able to hit for .300 with 25 HR's one day, and he possesses a strong eye and moderate speed. He's an excellent SS, and is as well rounded and bursting with potential as any prospect in the minors. He's the rare middle IF who can hit in the middle of the lineup, and that by itself makes him an easy top 5 prospect in baseball.
Carson Kelly isn't as exciting, but his plus fielding means he'll get a job at some point in the majors, and he'll offer a good BA, OBP, and moderate power. It's a league average bat, but at catcher, that's more than enough. He might need to be traded to find fantasy relevance, however. If the Cardinals are really going for it, expect him to be on the move.
Brian Miller was taken with the 36th overall pick in this year's draft, and he shows a strong eye, batting ability, along with plus speed. He's a solid defender, and is a polished OF prospect who can move fast in the Marlins system. He was quite good in A ball too, as a 21 year old.
Anthony Santander has struggled with injuries in his career, but he has terrific power and is a solid hitter too. He'll be 23 next season. Marco Hernandez and Christopher Torres project as speedy utility IF, although Hernandez is quite a bit closer and should see the majors next year. Jordan Johnson is a pitching prospect who failed as a starter, and is now being converted to reliever to fasttrack him to the bigs. Kohl Stewart might face that reality too, as his stuff has never played up to expectation. He's regressed from his top prospect perch, but he might profile as an exciting reliever now. Ricky Aracena has never hit despite getting a lot of money as an IFA. Giovany dominated in AAA last year, and he might end up as quality reliever somewhere with his dynamic fastball/curve combo.
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Post by Rays GM on Jan 8, 2018 14:17:33 GMT -5
5. Seattle Mariners
GM: Dave
2017 Record: 155-108-31
2018 Payroll: $101.35
2019 Payroll: $91.90
2020 Payroll: $57.90
Farm: Average
Picks: Moderate
Notable Batters HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SB
Manny Pina-C 9 43 .279 .327 .424 2
Eric Hosmer-1B 25 94 .318 .385 .498 6
Devon Travis-2B 5 24 .259 .291 .438 4
Kyle Seager-3B 27 88 .249 .323 .450 2
F. Lindor-SS 33 89 .273 .337 .505 15
C. Bellinger-1b/OF 39 97 .267 .352 .581 10
Adam Eaton-OF 2 13 .297 .393 .462 3
E. Inciarte-OF 11 57 .304 .350 .409 22
M. Brantley-OF 9 52 .299 .357 .444 11
Notable Pitchers ERA K/9 WHIP W SV H
David Price-SP 3.38 9.2 1.192 6 0 0
Sean Newcomb-SP 4.32 9.7 1.570 4 0 0
Mike Leake-SP 3.92 6.3 1.280 10 0 0
A. Sentazela-SP 4.68 6.8 1.300 10 0 0
J. Montgomery-SP 3.88 8.3 1.230 9 0 0
S. Miller-SP 4.09 8.2 1.455 2 0 0
Steve Cishek-RP 2.01 8.3 .896 3 1 15
D. Jennings-RP 3.45 7.3 1.340 3 0 15
Archie Bradley-RP 1.73 9.7 1.041 3 1 25
I like this team. Not just because it has the 18 year old version of Yoenis Cespedes on it (although that is a factor), but because it possesses both depth and starpower on the farm and ML team. Last year, the Mariners relied on a deep, explosive lineup to carry the team over a shoddy and shallow pitching staff. This year, the pitching is much deeper, with more upside to boot. Meanwhile, the offense is as strong as ever, giving the Mariners a strong chance in taking the AL West this year.
Wunderkids Cody Bellinger and Francisco Lindor lead the offense; Bellinger, was, of course, one of the two breakout rookies of the year, showing a level of hitting aptitude most people didn’t expect in his rookie year. Lindor’s season, however, was even more surprising given that he more than doubled his HR season total from the previous year. Some people might chalk it off to juiced balls, but as this fangraphs post went into detail, Lindor seemed to gear his swing for more loft last year, and the stats back it up: His flyball rate soared from 28% to 42% last year. Lindor seems to have fully embraced the flyball revolution in baseball. Given these new changes, he and Bellinger will expect to combine for 60 Hr’s again next year.
Complementary hitting pieces include Eric Hosmer, who had a career year in his walk year. He’s a fine hitter, but expecting a repeat season might be a bit much considering he’s still a GB heavy hitter who doesn’t a walk a lot. But he’ll provide his usual high avg, solid power as a 1B, and if he makes a moves to a friendlier hitting environment this year, expect him to take a jump in power numbers. Kyle Seager is a plus 3b presence, showing consistent power and average, and Manny Pina is a solid hitter for the catcher position. Devon Travis suffered a lost year due to injuries last year, but few middle IF options have his blend of power and average. In the OF, Adam Eaton was having a career year until a knee injury last year; he’ll be joined by two guys (Inciarte and Brantley), who will combine to form an OF that that is startlingly consistent throughout. They all possess a similar profile: Moderate power, plus speed, high avg and OBP. It isn’t sexy, but this is a really solid OF filled with steady veteran presences that can help in multiple fantasy categories.
The pitching is the story here. The revamped rotation is more depth over starpower, but at some point, that depth tends to accumulate counting stats. David Price isn’t the ace he was once, but he’s settled in as a solid #3 guys who still limits walks and provides a healthy dose of K’s – he’ll need to stay healthier than last year tho, as he suffered from elbow inflammation last year. Sean Newcomb is an intriguing Braves lefty who took steps forward with his control last year. He’s got serious power stuff, and if he continues to improve, he can be a TOR guy one day.
Antonio Sentzela, Mike Leake, and Jordan Montgomery are a strong set of backend starters, although Montgomery produced more like a #3 last year, and given he’s the only who gets K’s of the bunch, he has the best chance to take a step forward and remain a valued fantasy starter. Shelby Miller has been wrecked for the past couple of years, but he’s a nice, low level flyer who looked better last year before undergoing TJ surgery.
The bullpen is also rock solid. Archie Bradley was terrific as a reliever last year, taking on high leverage innings and posting a sub-2 ERA. It isn’t relevant to fantasy purposes, but he was worth 3.7 WAR last year. That’s incredible for a reliever. His 2 pitch arsenal sunk him as a starter, but as a reliever, his fastball-curve combo is deadly. Steve Cishek was his usual dominating self, confounding hitters with his sidearm delivery. Dan Jennings is a solid middle innings reliever, and Trevor May is an interesting guy to keep an eye on, as he was quite effective as a reliever before suffering an injury last year. He’ll be back early in the 2018 season.
Given the state of the AL West, Seattle should have a strong chance to win the division every year for the next few years. The farm is solid, and will give Dave plenty of trade chips to acquire a solid player while providing some ML talent in the near future. Given the inherent randomness of the ODC playoffs, that gives it a fair chance to host the ODC trophy one day.
Top Prospects
1. Lazaro Armenteros-OF
2. Chance Adams-SP
3. Daz Cameron-OF
4. Andrew Stevenson-OF
5. Freddy Peralta-SP
6. Dalton Pompey-OF
7. Michael Baumann-SP
8. Gavin Sheets-1B
9. Drew Ellis-3B
10. Juan Pie-OF
11. Taylor Walls-SS
12. Jihwan Bae-SS
13. Aaron Bummer-RP
Lazaro Armenteros is a physical specimen. He stands a chiseled 6 feet, 182 pounds, and is a 5 tool talent who can do everything of the baseball field. He’s got light tower power and should profile as a solid defensive OF with his strong arm. The only risk with him is he’s years away and has some swing and miss to his game. Still, there’s very few guys in the minors with his upside; at his peak, he can become a superstar talent.
Chance Adams is a really interesting spec. I think he fits the #3/#4 profile pretty well. He limits hits, and his power fastball, slider combo has gotten him plenty swings and misses. He’s a bit undersized, but he’s a bulldog. He’s a safe spec, given his proximity to the majors.
Daz Cameron is a “daz-zling” athlete, who can do things on the baseball field few can manage, and he took some big steps this year hitting wise. Again, he still swings and misses a lot, but I really like his chances to be an impact player in the bigs now – plus, he walks a healthy amount, which is a plus. He’ll open up in high A next year as a 21 year old.
Andrew Stevenson profiles a very good 4th OF, but he’ll have to fight his way through a loaded Nationals OF next year for playing time. He’ll probably open up in AAA next year. Freddy Peralta was the breakout pitching spec last year, striking out almost 13 men per 9 last year. I’ve read he’s more deception than power, but he clearly made big strides with his command last year, and he has a chance for three average to better pitches. He’ll be a guy who can break into the brewer’s rotation late next year.
Dalton Pompey is a dynamic athlete, but he’s flopped every since a breakout year in AA, struggling with injuries and consistency. I do like him tho! He’s a strong athlete, and the upside is still there.
Michael Baumann has a power fastball, but it’s a coin flip if he’s a starter or reliever. He’s big and strong, and could prove to be a workhorse if his secondaries and command take a step forward. Gavin Sheets has big power, but is relgated to 1B, so he’ll need to hit to make it to the majors. He was decent in A ball as a 21 year old last year. Drew Ellis is a well rounded hitter who had a strong track record in college, although he’s more polish over upside.
Juan Pie was the top pirates IFA signing – while he's raw, the pirates do an excellent job of developing IFA’s, so he’s one to watch. Aaron Bummer has a chance to be a strong reliever with his power fastball from the left side, and Jihwan Bae was expected to be a top 5 pick in the Korean League draft. I have no clue what that means for his ML prospect status, but that’s promising enough for me. He’s fast, a strong defensive ss, and contact oriented.
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Post by Rays GM on Jan 9, 2018 22:56:18 GMT -5
4. Kansas City Royals
Gm: Natty
2017 Record: 136-133-25
2018 Payroll: $107.15
2019 Payroll: $20.25
2020 Payroll: $0.00
Farm: Fairly Strong
Picks: Moderate
Notable Batters HR RBI BA OBP SLG SB
Wilson Contreras-C 21 74 .276 .356 .499 5
Josh Bell-1B 26 90 .255 .334 .466 2
Yoan Moncada-2B 8 22 .231 .338 .412 3
Orland Arcia-SS 13 53 .277 .324 .407 14
Jose Ramirez-3B 29 83 .318 .374 .583 17
N. Delmonico-OF 9 23 .262 .373 .482 2
Byron Buxton-OF 16 51 .253 .314 .413 29
Aaron Judge-OF 52 114 .284 .422 .627 9
Notable Pitchers ERA K's/9 WHIP W SV H
B. Woodruff-SP 4.81 6.7 1.326 2 0 0
E. Rodriguez-SP 4.19 9.8 1.282 6 0 0
S. Matz-SP 6.08 6.5 1.530 2 0 0
V. Velasquez-SP 5.13 8.5 1.500 2 0 0
Greg Holland-CP 3.61 11.0 1.151 3 41 1
D. Steckenrider-RP 2.34 14.0 1.38 1 1 10
Risk, meet reward; floor, meet ceiling; Carthage, meet Rome. The Royals are perhaps the most fascinating team in ODC, brimming with the kind of physical talent found you would expect to find on an NFL team, not a baseball one. The sheer athletic talent here is stunning, and so is the upside. I feel confident in saying there are 3 guys who possess generational athletic gifts on this roster (Aaron Judge, Yoan Moncada, Bryon Buxton) and one set to join them (Michael Kopech). If everything clicks for this roster, there isn’t much you can do about this team but shrug and hope for the best when playing against them.
Of course, these gifts, aside from Judge, haven’t completely translated yet. Byron Buxton has this annoying knack of starting horribly slow during the season, suffering though some injuries, and coming back with a revamped approach and finishes the season on fire. Last year, was the same old story. He was a much better hitter in the second half, having an incredible July, August, and finishing with a solid September, but at some point, a near 30% strikeout rate won’t cut it. It was a problem that persisted even in AAA for him, so you wonder if it’s just the nature of his profile. Surprisingly, he’ll only be 24 next year, so he still has time. His defense will keep him in the field, where his blazing speed and graceful strides earn him some well-deserved Willie Mays comparisons.
Yoan Moncada is another study case in physical tools that are more advanced than the bat. He posted a league average batting line last year in the bigs, although it was rife with high strikeouts. But while he was terrible in his first month, his numbers crept up month by month, and even in his worst stretches, he still took a lot of walks. The physical tools are still here – plus speed, plenty of raw power, incredible bat speed, a rocket arm – and given some more time, he can really take off. Everything he does is simply explosive. Given that he is also much better from the LH side than the RH side, he might also consider giving up switch hitting at some point to focus on his craft. He’ll be 23 next year, and he should be primed for a breakout campaign.
I don’t know if I have something insightful to say about Aaron Judge. He’s probably due for some regression because that first half is not happening again (or at least I hope so), but with Stanton in that lineup, I’m not sure how you’re going to pitch around him (And given that Judge gets on base more than Stanton, the Yankees will look to bat Judge 3rd and Stanton 4th). It’s going to be a pick your poison with this lineup, so good freakin’ luck.
There’s some amount of risk with those three, so it’s a good thing the rest of the lineup is borderline elite. The Wilson Contreras is one of baseball’s best hitting catchers, as he’ll walk a decent amount, hit for around 25 HR’s, all while providing a solid average. Josh Bell is the rare 1B who prefers a high average approach over power, but he still swatted a solid amount of HR’s last year, and posted a league average line for a 1B. He’s still young and could add some more power. Jose Ramirez had a year worthy of MVP consideration last year, and his significant control makes him a perfect fit for this roster. Given my uncertainty over Buxton and Moncada, he’s easily the second most valuable player on this roster. Orlando Arcia strikes out a bit too much for me, but SS’s with 20-20 potential don’t just grow on trees. Anthony Alford is another premium athlete who has 20-20 potential, but he has struggled with injuries in his baseball career. If all goes right, he has a chance to open up as the Blue Jays LF next season. Combined together, this is a very strong lineup, with the potential to be the most *dynamic* in the league.
The pitching lags behind here. Aside from the incoming comet that is Michael Kopech, the roster lacks an impact pitcher. Eduardo Rodriguez will be the presumed ace until then, but he once again struggled with injuries this year, and underwent knee surgery that will keep him out until March. Still, he’s a lefty with plus stuff, and when he’s right, he’s one of the better pitchers in the AL. Meanwhile, Brandon Woodruff is a nice #4 pitcher who should pitch better than he did last year, and Steven Matz will look to bounceback after lost year due to elbow discomfort that led to wonky mechanics. Vince Velasquez regressed a lot last year, striking out less guys, walking more, but I think he’ll bounce back. One of the interesting things I came across about him is that he’s a guy who rarely uses his 2 seam fastball, but when he does throw it, it possesses a 2 MPH difference and significant sink. It’s a valuable weapon that can generate ground balls, and you wonder if he’s closer to fantasy relevance than most if he changes his pitching approach.
The bullpen is fine. Greg Holland was on fire early in the season before slowing down a bit, but he’s a proven closer with premium stuff. Drew Steckenrider is a strong holds reliever who relies on a power fastball and plus slider to get guys out. It feels like we’ve been waiting forever on Koda Glover, who has real closer potential, but he’s been derailed two years in a row by injuries. He’ll be ready in 2018, and if he’s healthy, he can be a valuable reliever.
With all that said, it’s hard to not like this team. The team’s core is still young, and the upside is immense. The only reason I won’t move the team up is the pitching is still raw, and the hitting does carry some significant risk due to youth and injuries. Still, this is a terrific team with plenty of room to grow, with the kind of offense that can become the best in the league one day.
Top Prospects
1. Michael Kopech-SP
2. Wander Javier-SS
3. Jo Adell –OF
4. Yusniel Diaz-OF
5. Adbert Alzolay-OF
6. Drew Watesr-OF
7. William Conteras-C
8. Tanner Houck-SP
9. Jackson Kowar-SP
10. Freicer Perez-SP
11. Enyel De Los Sanots-SP
12. Calvin Mitchell-OF
13. Michael Mercado-SP
14. Caden Lemons-SP
15. Yefir Del Rosario-SP
16. George Valera-OF
17. Ronny Rojas-SS
18. Pedro Gonzalez-OF
19. Dennis Santana-SP
20. Quinten Holmes-OF
21. Alvaro Seijas-SP
22. Tyler Freeman-2B
Michael Kopech is the easy number one here. He’s a plus athlete with improving control, with a triple plus fastball, double plus slider, and a curve that can come out as above average. He’s got as much upside as anyone in baseball, and there’s a good chance he sees the majors in late 2018.
Wander Javier ranks above Adell because he has a good shot at staying at SS, and possesses a rare blend of power and speed for the position. I really like his offensive potential given that he demolished the Appy league at 18 this year, and the only thing he needs to do is cut down on his swings and misses. He’s a bonafide all star player if he makes those adjustments.
Jo Adell has had a lot written about him in the past year. He’s a true 5 tool guy with light tower power, and he should profile well in RF, where his rocket arm would play well. He still swings and misses quite a bit, but given his lighting bat speed and young age, that’s a flaw that can be overlooked. Yusniel Diaz is less tooled up, but he’s already played well in AA at the age of 20, and his well rounded toolset means he can chip in at every fantasy category while providing a high average to boot.
Adbert Alzolay was a guy I had on my rule v board for a very long time, and I think he’s now the new number one spec in the Cubs farm. He’s got a plus fastball and curve, and his change is morphing into another solid pitch on his repertoire. He’s got solid control, and with another year of seasoning in the high minors, he can step into the Cubs rotation in 2019 as a possible #3 starter. William Contreras was also another guy on my rule v Board, and he has a chance to be a two way catcher at the major league level. He was quite excellent in the Appy league as a 19 year old, and he’s poised to be one of the breakout specs in that loaded Braves farm.
Tanner Houck fell to the Sox in this year’s draft because of an inconsistent college career that fluctuated based on his command and wavering secondaries, but, at the very least, his fastball slider combination makes him an absolute nightmare for RH hitters, so he has the chance to move fast with the ceiling of a mid rotation starter. Jackson Kowar stands at an intimidating 6’5”, and his power fastball and plus changeup gives him a strong foundation to work with, although development of a 3rd pitch is a must for him to continue starting. He’s projected to be a top 10 draft prospect for next year, and ranks just behind his rotation mate at Florida, Brady Singer.
Freicer Perez is part of that exciting wave of low level Yankee pitching specs, and his power fastball and monster frame gives you a lot to dream on. I’ve heard middling stuff on his secondaries though, so that will be crucial for him to polish out to remain a starter. Enyel De Los Santos took a big step this year, pitching well in AA, showing off his improved command. I’ve heard he’s got the stuff of a #3 starter, but his unusual delivery undercuts his stuff, forcing most people to place him at a #4/#5 evaluation. Either way, he’s a good bet to start, and is now part of a very deep pitching group in Philadelphia.
There’s not much to go about Mitchell, except that he has a beautiful swing and should develop more power as he matures. Michael Mercado is quickly becoming a fan favorite of those who value projection over present; he’s skinny as hell now, but once he adds weight, he’ll see a jump in all of his pitches. Caden Lemons is a 6’7” dynamo with a 97 MPH fastball (with room to grow!), but his mechanics are inconsistent. Still, he’ll probably be tossing 100 MPH one day, so at the very worst, he’s a plus reliever.
Yefri Del Rosario is part of that wave of Braves specs who were released because of that tampering scandal, and he’s said to have a strong fastball/curve combo. He was quite excellent in Rookie ball as a teenager last year. George Valera and Ronny Rojas were top 20 IFA specs last year, and are bat first prospects with explosive swings. Pedro Gonzalez is one of the more intriguing low level specs, as he offers awe inspiring pop, thanks to his quick bat and projectable frame that promises even more hidden strength. He projects to RF. Holmes is one of the quickest people in professional baseball, although being the rare prospect who hails from the cold weather climate of NYC, he might need a lot of polish and time to fulfill his potential.
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Post by Rays GM on Jan 10, 2018 21:56:08 GMT -5
3. Orioles
GM: Jeff
2017 Record: 190-85-19
2018 Payroll: $112.50
2019 Payroll: $110.20
2020 Payroll: $81.00
Farm: Weak
Picks: None
Notable Batters HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SB
Tyler Flowers-C 12 49 .281 .378 .445 0
Brian Mcann-C 18 62 .241 .323 .436 1
Joey Votto-1B 36 100 .320 .454 .578 5
Mark Reynolds-1B 30 97 .267 .352 .487 2
Jose Altuve-2B 24 81 .346 .410 .547 32
B. Zobrist-2B 12 50 .232 .318 .375 2
Elvis Andurs-SS 20 88 .297 .337 .471 25
Chris Owings-SS 12 51 .268 .299 .442 12
Y. Solarte-3B 18 64 .255 .314 .416 3
Khris Davis-OF 43 110 .247 .336 .528 4
C. Blackmon-OF 37 104 .331 .399 .601 14
Notable Pitchers ERA K/9 WHIP W SV H
JA Happ-SP 3.53 8.8 1.314 10 0 0
C. Morton-SP 3.62 10.0 1.193 14 0 0
C. Mghugh-SP 3.55 8.8 1.295 5 0 0
J. Odorizzi-SP 4.14 8.0 1.242 10 0 0
J. Quintana-SP 4.15 9.9 1.224 11 0 0
C. Anderson-SP 2.17 8.5 1.090 12 0 0
D. Salazar-SP 4.28 12.7 1.340 5 0 0
J. Vargas-SP 4.16 6.7 1.330 18 0 0
A. Chapman-RP 3.22 12.3 1.132 4 22 1
C. Kimbrel-CP 1.43 16.43 .68 5 35 1
D. Robertson-RP 1.84 12.91 .85 5 1 8
Depending on your view of the team, this ranking may be too high or too low. I'm one of the more bullish ones, which is why the Orioles slot at 3 here. The ML roster is the strongest, in my opinion, by a noticeable margin in ODC, although the White Sox make a very strong push in this argument. But because the finances are tied down for the next two years, and there really is no farm here, putting it higher would go against my ranking methodology.
Still, this is the type of team that makes it a joy to write about. The Orioles employ two of the best pure hitters in baseball in Jose Altuve and Joey Votto. Altuve is the reigning AL MVP, a dynamo who stands in under 6 feet but draws plenty of walks, homers and SB's to be an all around threat at 2B. Given he's only 27, he'll still be in his prime for the forseeable future. Meanwhile, Votto is a throwback hitter, who prefers sharpening his approach over time to the tune of a .459 OBP last year, while providing plenty of bunch and RBI's for a 1B. Despite the fact that he's only 34, his profile makes it easy for me to believe there's still 3-4 more elite years in him.
The surrounding cast is very strong too. Tyler Flowers continued a late career surge from "disappointing top prospect" to all star caliber catcher. He'll be backed up by Brian Mcann, who provides a more than adequate bat at the catcher position, with plus pop. Mark Reynolds recaptured the magic of his 2009 season in Coors field, and his decling K rates show a maturing hitter who's made enough adjustments to stay as a viable hitter in the Majors Leagues. Elvis Andrus is now one of the most perplexing players in baseball, with a late career uptick that has turned him from an utility IF to an all star one. Maybe it's easy to dismiss it at as fluke, but it's been two years now where Andrus has hit well above the SS standard, and the revolution seems to be concrete: Adapting a new leg kick, changing his approach to drive the ball more, he's part of a wave of hitters who are looking to drive the ball in the air. I wouldn't stick around for his contract, but I feel good in saying he's going to be a valuable player for the next few years.
Yangervis Solarte continues to be a criminally underrated 3B, and now, with a move from Petco to Toronto, he's going to enter a ballpark that is much more friendlier to hitters. I'll chalk up his down year to bad luck; when he's on, he provides a solid average with plus power. I wouldn't be shocked if he breaks out this year and reaches a new career high.
The OF is a bit thin, but led by two premier power hitters in Khris Davis and Charlie Blackmon. Davis has become the ultimate A's hitter: Low Avg, solid OBP, double plus power. He's a much more valuable player in fantasy than in real life (he's a wreck in the OF, good lord that arm is a 20 at best), and for the next two years, expect him to be a cheap source of power for the O's. Blackmon is in his walk year, which is a shame, because thanks to the magical confines of Coors and his freaky bat to ball ability, he's become one of the best players in Fantasy. And I'm not kidding when I say he has a freaky bat to ball ability. He literally golfs the ball when pitchers pitch him low. I saw this moment live, and I had to double take because it was something you would expect Rory Mcllroy to pull off, not a professional baseball player.
The pitching here is weaker than the offense, although it has a nice group of mid-rotation starters. Charlie Morton has had one of the most fascinating backstories of any pitcher. When he came to the Pirates in in 2009, he was a guy who had electric stuff, but wasn't polished enough to maximize it. The pirates had him do a funny thing -- they made him a sinkerballer, who focused on getting ground ball outs instead of trying to blow past people. It worked, and thanks to an eerily similar throwing motion to Roy Halladay, a lot of people began to take notice of him. The change worked for a while, but after a few years, injuries sapped him of effectiveness. Last year, something clicked. He threw harder (he was touching 99 in the WS!), and his loopy curveball had become one of the best in baseball. In a series that featured Kershaw, Verlander, Darvish, and McCullers, Morton had the best raw stuff. I'm not sure how long he can maintain this, but at the very least, he should be a more than serviceable #3 guy for the next two years who can provide plenty of K's.
Chase Anderson had a breakout year with the Brewers, and looks to be a solid mid rotation starter if he can push past his oblique injury that shortened his season. JA Happ has been on a three year hot streak, striking out more guys than ever before, all thanks to a short stint with the Pirates and pitching guru Ray Searage back in 2015. He's been a smarter pitcher as he's aged, using his breaking stuff in the lower parts of the zone to set up his high, running fastball; meanwhile, his bread and butter sinker gives him a high GB rate. Jose Quintana and his contract are one of the better bargains in baseball, and despite a subpar first half in Chicago, he's a #2 starter who get's K's and limits hits. Colin Mchugh and Jake Odorizzi are two more options for this rotation, and should profile as solid #4 starters. Danny Salazar is an interesting wild card here. Rumor has it he's being shopped around, but thanks to an inconsistent profile that allows too many walks (despite absolutely wicked stuff), there's also support for moving him to the bullpen where he'll profile as a terrifying reliever. It's something to consider, at the very least.
The bullpen is terrific, but under minimal control. For this season, the three headed monster of Aroldis Chapman, David Robertson, and Craig Kimbrel will become the most dominant 1-2-3 in ODC. Saves, K's, holds -- you name it, they'll cover it all. Hunter Strickland and Nate Jones will be holds guys who have power arsenals, and will round out the depth of the bullpen.
Overall, I feel good about this team in the top 5. There's no farm here, and the financials are going to get ugly soon, but for the next 2 years, maybe 3, this should be the premier force in the AL until aging and pricy contracts will lead to some retooling. Still, in that time frame, the Orioles should have a very good chance of snatching up a WS -- if they don't come away with at least one trophy by the end of 5 year time frame, i'll be pretty surprised. With the best offense in ODC, and surprisingly underrated rotation and killer bullpen, the Baltimore Orioles will open up this year as the favorites to win the ODC crown.
Top Prospects
1.Tyler Holt
Tyler Holt is still active, which makes him the easy choice for number one.
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Post by Rays GM on Jan 14, 2018 21:59:24 GMT -5
2. Chicago White Sox
GM: Mike
2017 Record: 142-126-26
2018 Payroll: $103.10
2019 Payoll: $101.20
2020 Payroll: $75.20
Farm: Below Average
Picks: Moderate
Notable Batters HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SB
Buster Posey-C 12 67 .320 .400 .462 6
F. Freeman-1B 28 71 .307 .403 .586 8
E. Encarnacion-1B 38 107 .258 .377 .504 2
S. Gennett-2B 27 97 .295 .342 .531 3
X. Bogaerts-SS 10 62 .273 .343 .403 15
Tommy Pham-OF 23 73 .306 .411 .520 25
J. Bradley JR-OF 17 63 .245 .323 .402 8
D. DeShields-OF 6 22 .269 .347 .367 29
G. Stanton-OF 59 132 .281 .376 .631 2
Notable Pitchers ERA K/9 WHIP W SV H
Luis Severino-SP 2.98 10.7 1.040 14 0 0
M. Tanaka-SP 4.74 9.8 1.239 13 0 0
Aaron Nola-SP 3.54 9.9 1.208 12 0 0
Doug Fister-SP 4.88 8.3 1.384 5 0 0
Cody Allen-CP 2.94 12.3 1.16 3 30 4
S. Alexander-CP 2.48 7.70 1.30 5 4 9
T. Kahnle-RP 2.59 13.79 1.12 2 0 15
Juan Nicasio-RP 2.61 8.96 1.08 5 6 22
I wouldn't want to be in the AL Central. There's the Twins (hey Pat!), the Royals (How's it going Natty?), the Tigers(Sup Los Tigres), and the Indians (Give me Jhordany Mezquita, please). On top of that pile of ultra competitive teams lies the White Sox, who open up the 2018 season as one of the elite AL teams. This team has it all: Stars on both sides of the ball (with control), a tight but manageable cap situation, and some interesting names down low on the farm.
The offense is led by none other than Giancarlo Stanton, who's poised to hit 60 Hr's now that's he's exchanging Marlins Park for Yankees Stadium for his home field. There isn't much to say about him except that we're witnessing one of the great power hitters in baseball history rampage through the league, and, if he stays upright, he has a chance at 600 HR's one day. Last year was his first full season without any major injuries in almost 3 years, so health is a critical component here.
Edwin Encarnacion is going through a strange late career surge, where his power has peaked, his strikeouts have appropriately followed, and his walks have also spiked. His BA has suffered a downturn as he's become more of a "3 true outcome" batter, but he's still good for 35 Hr's and he walked a remarkable 104 times last year.
Freddie Freeman is my pick for AL MVP next year. He was hitting slugging a remarkable .748 last year with an OBP of .461 before a broken wrist sidelined him midseason. He's was merely "excellent" when he came back, but he can be author a true tour-de-force season next year with a better Braves lineup around him (Hello Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, and the ghost of Dansby Swanson). He's one of the best pure hitters in baseball, and looks to take the mantle of best 1B from Joey Votto when the time comes.
Xander Bogaerts went through a disappointing year last year, showing zero sign of power (remember when people were saying he had 40 HR potential? Man.), at a time when people thought he would break through. On the bright side, reports claim he battled hand injuries last year, which would explain an awful lot about the power. It's too early to give up on him (he'll only be 25 next year). Patience is what I would preach for him. With a new coaching staff in town, expect a bounce back year for him in 2018.
Scooter Gennett is easily one of the most bizarre stories in baseball. This was a guy who had 35 careers HR's in 4 seasons before the 2017 season; this was a guy who's 5'10 and 180 ibs -- and yet he did this last year:
So after doubling his past career high in HR's last year with 27 last year, the question to ask is how real was that, and how much of that can be attributed to a juiced ball? The one thing in his favor is that a lot of this change was approach driven - Gennett seems to have changed his approach to embrace the flyball revolution in baseball, as his flyball rate ticked up from 29.8% in 2015 to 34.5% in 2016 to 37.6% in 2017. More importantly, he got aggressive. He started pulling the ball more last year, from a 34.9% in 2016 to 42.4% in 2017. He hit the ball harder as a result, and surprisingly, he didn't see an increase in K's or decrease in walks. Some of last year was definitely *cough* driven by baseball composition, but more and more it seems like its more reality than a mirage.
Jedd Gyroko has had two years of solid play in a row, now that's he's left the confines of Petco Park. He won't ever make an all star team, but he'll settle in as a guy who's average in the power, AVG, OBP categories in fantasy.
Tommy Pham, Delino DeShields, and Jacke Bradley Jr will flank Stanton in the OF. All three will bring something distinctive to the table. Pham is now one of the best fantasy players in baseball, a 20-20 guy who walks a ton, hits a lot, and is the rare fantasy LF who can affect all categories. DeShields is a guy who mainly provides steals, but he'll chip in a solid BA and OBP in the process. Bradley has the ability to lift and crush baseball teams with his streakiness, although he was much more cold than hot last year, and along with Betts, Beni, and Xander, was part of an underachieving young Red Sox core. I think there's a bounceback year in there for the group, with a new coaching staff in town.
Buster Posey, despite a general career downturn since his 2012 MVP season, still provides moderate power with a high AVG, OBP approach to this team. As one of the best hitting catchers in the game, he's the cherry on top of this ridiculously deep and star studded lineup.
The pitching is one of the strongest in the AL, if not a bit top heavy. Luis Severino rode an improved changeup and increased emphasis on his offspeed pitches to jump back from a disastrous 2016 to becoming a top 10 arm in baseball. His arsenal is electric, and despite a strange and sometime wild delivery, he's the unquestioned ace on this team. Masahiro Tanaka struggled with a HR prone first half, as his damaged UCL led him to minimiez the usage of his splitter, by far his deadliest pitch (Otani ran into the same elbow issues last year, as his splitter usage ominously dropped in Japan). But as he grew comfortable, Tanaka bounced back in the second half and was simply magnificent in the playoffs.
Then there's Aaron Nola. Once drafted as a guy who would move fast, a lot of people have him as a 1A rotation guy now. He's a bonafide TOR arm who's made strides with missing bats over his career. Meanwhile, Doug Fister will slot in a the #4 starter in this rotation, who's officially back from the brink. After a couple of lost year, Fister miraculously started regaining his fastball velocity late in the year, and he turned into a solid mid rotation guy who could pile up K's, ala 2014. Is that sustainable? Who knows. Fastball velocity upticks could be temporary, and that would greatly diminish his utility as a starter. He'll open up the 2018 season as one of the Rangers' starter, as Texas desperately tries to make a patchwork rotation to keep up with the Astros in the division. Good Luck!
The bullpen is solid. Cody Allen is an elite closer, and Tommy Kahnle is one of the best strikeout artists in the game, with a screaming fastball that tops out in the high 90's with a devastating breaking ball. Scott Alexander got some recent love on Fangraphs, because of his power sinker that he relies on over 90% of the time(!!), second only behind Zach Britton. He's added some velo in the past year, and becomes perhaps the best groundball dependent relief pitcher in the game now. He's effective against both LH and RH's, and should be a valuable weapon in the dodgers pen. Juan Nicasio has a good chance to be the setup man in Seattle, as he's been consistently excellent as a holds guy for the past few years.
With all that said, I feel comfortable with the Sox as #2. There's some interesting names down on the farm, and the cap situation isn't bad at all. The prime of this team is destined to compete for the next few years, and it's set up better for the future than the Orioles or other strong contenders for this year. It's a deep team, especially on offense, and its combination of starpower and useful role players makes it one of the most dangerous in baseball. The Chicago White Sox
Top Prospects:
1. JoJo Romero-SP
2.Domingo Leyba-2B
3. Sandro Fabian-OF
4. Alex Blandino-IF
5. Steven Duggar-OF
6. Mark Zagunis-OF
7. Keury Mella-SP
8. Aristides Aquino-OF
9. Aaron Slegers-SP
10. Chris Okey-C
11. Bryson Brigman-SS
This is an interesting farm, deep with solid role players but lacking in stars.
JoJo Romero is part of that deep crop of philly SP prospects, and he's definitely one of the most polished ones. He's got a nice 4 pitch arsenal that probably grades out as average, but his control and solid mechanis help him play up to a possible #4 role.
Leyba has a nice career for him as a super-utility IF who can hit a little. He's tiny, but has an excellent eye and some moderate pop. He'll look to get back on track in AA next year after a shoulder injury bogged him down.
Sandro Fabian held his own as a 19 year old in A ball this year, and is already one of the most exciting specs in a giants farm filled with bench players and backend starters. He's got can hit for both power and average, tho he's best suited for RF with below average speed.
Alex Blandino bounced back from a disastrous 2016 season to show off a nice blend of patience, hitting ability, and power as a middle IF in the high minors this year. He was a first round pick that expected to move quick, but after some delay, he can make an impact immediately as an O minded infielder next year.
Steven Duggar and Mark Zagunis both profile nicely as 4th OF's, with speed and defense as their calling cards. Keury Mella is a wildly inconsistent SP spec, but on his best days, he can show a 97 MPH fastball and plus curve. He's probably a good bet to move to the bullpen at some point. Aquino is a toolsy OF who had a terrible year in AA, tanking his prospect outlook. He's got power, speed, and a cannon of an arm, but until he hits, he's MILB fodder.
Aaron Slegers is a huge guy at 6'10" (!), and he profiles as a strike throwing backend guy who's ML ready. He's nice depth for this CWS farm.
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Post by Rays GM on Feb 11, 2018 21:36:12 GMT -5
1. Cincinnati RedsGM: Cody 2017 Record: Um, ESPN is down 2018 Payroll: $109.85 2019 Payroll: $59.00 2020 Payroll: $52.40 Farm: Strong Picks: Moderate
Notable Batters HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SBJT Realmuto-C 17 65 .278 .332 .451 8 Dominic Smith-1B 9 26 .198 .262 .395 0 Brandon Drury-2B 13 63 .267 .317 .447 1 Jonathan Schoop-2B 32 105 .293 .338 .503 1 A. Simmons-SS 14 69 .278 .331 .421 19 Joey Gallo-3B 41 8 0 .209 .333 .537 7 Justin Upton-OF 35 109 .273 .361 .540 14 Raimel Tapia-OF 2 16 .288 .329 .425 5 G. Polanco-OF 11 35 .251 .305 .391 8 S. Marte-OF 7 31 .275 .333 .379 21 D. Santana-OF 30 85 .278 .371 .505 15 J. Profar-OF 0 5 .172 .294 .207 1 Notable Pitchers ERA K/9 WHIP W SV H
Brad Peacock-SP 3.00 10.98 1.19 13 0 0 Jonathan Gray-SP 3.67 9.14 1.30 10 0 0 James Paxton-SP 2.98 10.32 1.20 12 0 0 M. Clevinger-SP 3.11 10.1 1.249 12 0 0 Daniel Norris-SP 5.31 7.6 1.613 5 0 0 R. Lopez- SP 4.72 5.7 1.322 3 0 0 S. Oh-RP 4.10 8.2 1.40 1 20 7 Ken Giles-CP 2.30 11.9 1.04 1 34 2 Brett Cecil-RP 3.88 8.2 1.23 2 1 14 Blake Treinen-RP 3.93 8.8 1.39 3 16 10 Oops. Chalk this up to incoming school pressure, but I totally forgot about doing Cody’s writeup. As it is, it really wouldn’t be fair to do a 10,000 word article only to forget about number one, so let’s dive in. There’s a lot to talk about. The main reason why I loved Cody’s roster is not only because of how strong and controllable the MLB roster is, but he has plenty of cap to work with along with a top 7 farm at his disposal. It’s a perfect blend of present and future, and should be able to contend for a long time in this league. To save money, Cody had to trade away a few terrific players such as Marcus Stroman and Freddie Freeman, but he picked up younger player, cap, and specs in the process. Still, the offense here is still very, very good. JT Realmuto continues to be one of the best hitting catchers in baseball, and is one of the last, best trade chips the Marlins have in their perpetual teardown. He provides moderate output in all fantasy categories, and is only starting to enter his prime. Meanwhile, Dominic Smith, despite a mediocre introduction to the majors last year, promises to provide a high AVG, OBP output, even if the power is well below average for a 1B. Jonathan Schoop is one of the most confounding players in recent memories, who, despite having breezed through with the minors with a merely decent statistical output, showed off his plus power that had often tantalized and frustrated scouts throughout his career. I don’t dig the approach, as he’s a hacker at nature, but his tools and ceiling makes him one of the most coveted 2B in baseball. His backup, Brandon Drury, also runs an ill advised approach at the plate, but his moderate power makes him worth the roster spot. Joey Gallo is another player who broke out last year, and he did it by “selling out.” By looking to drive balls and maximize power over contact, Gallo embraced his strengths and simply accepted that his flaws were a part of his game. He hit a stunning 41 HR’s in only 550 AB’s, striking out an unfathomable 36% of the time (for comparison, Mark Reynolds has never gone beyond a 35% K rate in a seaons), although buoying it with a 13% walk rate. I’m not sure if this approach can hold up, but Gallo is in the perfect ballpark to thrive again. The OF is loaded. The amount of former to prospects on this list are incredible. Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco were the new Golden Dust twins for the pirates, until they weren’t. Marte’s PED suspension left him reeling in a miserable year (and his hacking approach finally caught up to him), while Polanco suffered from injury after injury. If Cody wants to win the NLC this year, these guys are going to have to rebound. Justin Upton is coming off a career year, reaching a new career highs in HRs and BB rate, and is the undisputed best player on this roster. Jurickson Profar has had his careers wrecked by injuries, but the truth is, his #1 prospect status was a little too high for him even when healthy; he never had great tools, and with years of injury taking a toll on him, there’s pressing questions about his physical abilities as an everyday ML player. Still, the approach is there, and there’s hope he turns into a sweet swinging, switch hitting Utility player in the majors. Domingo Santana posted a breakout year, but his approach leaves a lot to be desired, and with the Brewers loooking to move him, his fantasy future is questionable at the moment. Still, his power wil make him an everyday player no matter where he goes. Raimel Tapia offers an intriguing contact, speed profile, and now that’s he’s playing in Coors, he’s a must stash and can quickly ascend in importance on this roster. The pitching here has a chance to be electric, but risks being inconsistent. Brad Peacock (part of that infamous Hou/Cin deal) finally harnessed his stuff last year and was an integral part of the Astros staff as a starter/reliever. He’s always had power stuff, and whatever role he plays, he’ll bring plenty of K’s to the table. Daniel Norris struggled with injuries last year, losing the strike zone as his K’s plummeted. He’s healthy next year, and should be a strong contender for bounceback player of the year. His stuff is more than deadly enough to play in the majors; the next step is him regaining his composure and locating his pitches better. James Paxton finally broke out last year, showing the first stretches of sustained health as the “Big Maple” was one of the most statistically dominant pitchers out there. Still, a late season injury sidelined him for the last two months, so again, the key is: Stay healthy. Jonathan Gray is looking like the real deal. After some small adjustments to increase the GB % to combat Coors, his fastball has ticked up while his secondaries have been fleshed out. He pitched like an ace in COL last year, and will be counted on to lead this CIN rotation.
Mike Clevinger, despite walking a bit too many guys for my liking last year, was part of that Indians rotation that put up historical strikeout numbers. Stuffwise, pitchingwise -- Clevinger belongs in the bigs. The only problem is, the loaded Indians rotation might risk bumping him out of it, and because he has a MILB option, he might start the year in AAA next year. Still, he should be up by mid next year, because he’s simply too good for that level. Reynaldo Lopez, despite reports on his huge stuff, underplays his potential with below average command, and could look to improve his GB rate. He’ll serve as depth for this rotation until he continues to refine his pitching style. Still, there’s 6 guys in this rotation who have a reasonable shot of posting healthy strikeout numbers as a starter this year, which gives Cody considerable upside on his pitching staff. The bullpen is deep, if not necessarily good. Seung-Hwan Oh suffered a huge drop in K’s and GB’s last year, and will need to rebuild stock in a messy Rangers Bullpen. The upside is high for him, but he might be on the decline now. Blake Treinen was excellent last year as an A’s, as a trade from WAS seemed to revitalize him. Stuffwise, he’s elite, showing a power slider and sinker in his arsenal, and he might be up for closer duties in Oak. Ken Giles has an otherwise excellent year in HOU, and will retain that closer position if he can continue limiting hits and GB, something he struggled with in 2016. Brett Cecil will need to rediscover the effectiveness of his curveball to become worth his contract -- after two years of boasting an elite curveball in 2014 and 2015, Cecil has flashed an average curve that has limited his effectiveness. Still, while the bullpen and pitching might hold more risk than you would like, the upside on the staff remains fantastic, and the hitting is solid, young, and controllable. The farm here is incredibly deep, and with a nice cap situation moving forward, it’s hard not to like the position of Cody’s team.
Top ProspectsThe farm is deep, and underrated. There’s a reason I’ve often looked to Cody when making prospect for prospect swaps. While a lot of the guys are far away, almost all of their ceilings scream “first division starter” and “All star.” When it comes to boom or bust, no farm can match this one. 1. Austin Hays-OF 2. Alex Reyes-SP 3. Leodys Taveras-OF 4. Trent Clark-OF 5. Jhailyn Ortiz-OF 6. Ryan Mountcastle-3B 7. Ke-Bryan Hayes-3B 8. Brady Singer-SP 9. Freudis Nova-SS 10. DL Hall-SP 11. Austin Beck-OF 12. Sandy Alcantara-SP 13. Will Benson-OF 14. Danny Diaz-3B 15. Travis Blankenhorn-3B 16. Alex Speas-SP 17. Matt Sauer-SP 18. Gabriel Arias-SS 19. Miguel Hiraldo-SS 20. Antonio Cabello-C 21. Patrick Weigel-SP 22. Rogelio Armenteros-SP 23. Jacob Pearson - OF Austin Hays has the bat to hit in the middle of the order, providing plus pop and plus hits tools, while a strong arm, glove and decent speed gives him either a home in CF or RF. I remember once, when I was hanging out around a fangraphs chat, a question was raised to the moderator: If you could give one player the plate discipline of Joey Votto, who would it be? The answer: Austin Hays, easily. When it comes to sheer physical talent, not many can match him. Hays has a chance to be a very special player with 5 tools, but unless he can tone down his extremely aggressive approach, he might just top out at “highly frustrating but tantalizing everyday player.” Alex Reyes was a top 10 spec last year, but suffered TJ surgery before he could break into the STL rotation. When he’s on, his combination of power stuff is nearly unrivaled. He’ll need to shake off the rust from injury, while importing his command, but there’s ace upside here, although he’s farther from that potential than he was a year ago. Leody Taveras is more tools over performance right now, but scouts are unanimous in him having the chance to be a 5 tool player one day. He’s fast, has surprising pop, and has a good shot in playing a strong CF at the highest level. He’ll move up to A+ next year, at the young age of 19, after showing a strong approach in A ball last year. Trent Clark is similarly talented, but struggled terribly last year in A ball. He needs work on his approach, but the tools are still there that made him a top 15 pick. Jhailyn Ortiz is going to be a household name soon. He took a big step forward with his hitting last year, smashing low A in his age 18 last year. He has potential 70 power to flaunt, and his strong work ethic has kept his imposing body from becoming a problem. He’ll slot in as a RF prospect with his strong arm. Ryan Mountcastle is an interesting spec, although I’m not totally in on him because his weak arm makes him a candidate for LF. He hit well in high A as age 20, although continual refining of his approach will be key. When it’s all said and done, he could be a league average LF who hits for both average and power. KeBryan Hayes is more potential over performance at the moment, and much of his value is derived from future power projection. Still, he’s fast, projects to play a very good 3B, and has already shown quite the ability to hit the ball at a high contact rate. He could be a quick riser if he performs well in in AA next year in his age 21 season. Brady Singer is perhaps the top collegiate arm, and has a good chance to be the number one overall pick next year. There’s electric stuff here, although his delivery might lead to some reliever concern. Still, if he’s healthy and perfroms, he’ll be appearing on some top 100 prospect lists late next year.
Freudis Nova was a much heralded IFA signing, and with his athletic ability, advanced approach at the plate, and tools all across the board, he’s one of the most intruging rookie ball players in baseball at the moment. He’ll need to continue getting stronger to actualize much of that bat projection.
DL hall was one of the most hyped HS lefties in the draft last year, but makeup concerns caused him to slip to the Orioles. Still, he has a power fastball-slider combo, and that would make him a strong candidate to be a #3 starter one day. One key is to improve command and mechanical consistency, which will allow him to develop further.
Austin Beck was a top 10 pick last year, but was clearly overwhelmed in Rookie ball. He hadn’t performed at the highest competition in HS, and that was one concern that held him down on draft day. Still, there’s 5 impact tools here, and there’s a star player once he matures and turns that raw ability into actual performance. Sandy Alcantara is much-ballyhooed for his power fastball, but I’m not crazy about the breaking stuff or command. He might be a reliever in the end, but has real TOR upside if his pitches develop more.
Will Benson has incredible power, arm, and is a massive athlete (similar, really, to Aaron Judge), but needs to make big strides with his hit tool to be a ML player. There’s All star potential if it clicks.
Danny Diaz was a top 15 IFA last summer, and was marketed as having the best hit-power combo. He’s a 3B by trade, and could turn into an impact regular there. Travis Blankenhorn has serious power potential, and performed quite well in single A last year as a 20 year old. Alex Speas and Matt Sauer are huge power arms who have to answer questions about control, polish, before becoming bonafide ML SP specs. But both have serious strikeout ability, and their ceilings are quite high given their raw stuff. Both are strong, and stand around 6’4”, so the frame is there for starting.
Gabriel Arias has drawn raves for his defense at SS, and his bat is coming along even if it’s not as advanced. He, along with Jordy Barley, Luiz Almanzar, and Justin Lopez, are among that pile of low level padre SS’s who have starter upside. Miguel Hiraldo and Cabello were two recent highly ranked IFA signings. Hiraldo was heralded for his hitting ability and future pop, while Cabello was seen as a strong catcher with power potential.
Patrick Weigel and Rogelio Armenteros both project as backend guys, although I like Weigel’’s stuff more, even though he’s injured.
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