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Post by Rays GM 北海道日(Will) on Dec 16, 2017 18:57:21 GMT -5
These are entirely subjective. I'm not the prospect/player expert on here. I just like writing.
The only thing this rankings takes into account is how many championships a team could win within 5 years. The 5 year limit is entirely arbitrary, but I think it makes sense given the league has been only around 6 years old, and projecting it out to 2027 is impossible to get accurate within a reasonable range.
Anyways, things such as present MLB talent, MILB talent, picks, cash, strength of the division all matter. This isn't a ranking of GM's, but I think it's pretty reasonable to give a team more points if the GM has a good track record. Also, one of the things I've learned so far is that teams can change very quickly over the course of a year. Wouldn't surprise me if these rankings looks very different by next December. After all, nothing is written.
Alright, time to get this thing rolling!
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Post by Rays GM 北海道日(Will) on Dec 16, 2017 19:24:41 GMT -5
30. Colorado Rockies
GM: Becksmac
2017 Record: 131-141-22
2017 Payroll: -26.55
2018 Payroll: $45.90
2019 Payroll: $24.00
Farm: Below Average
Picks: Moderate
Notable Batters: HR RBI AVG OBP SLG
Jason Heyward -OF 3 30 .259 .326 .389
Notable Pitchers: ERA K/9 WHIP W SV H
Jose LeClerc-RP 3.94 11.8 1.380 2 2 10
AJ Schugel-RP 1.97 7.6 1.41 4 0 4
I think one of the lessons learned from the 2017 ODC Rockies is that buying a team in FA really isn't the smartest idea. Either way, with Beck in town, he's cleared most of the future cap from the roster, which is pretty amazing. Props to that.
The ML roster is barren, although guys like Heyward, Schugel, and LeClerc could garner some trade interest in the near future or at the deadline. There's honestly not much to say here.
Still, things are looking up for the Rockies. The farm isn't in great shape, but Beckshas acquired a slew of picks in past deals to make sure it'll improve in the future, and he got solid specs in Lewis and Naylor. The cap situation looks to be a lot cleaner starting next year, too. Contending won't probably happen until Year 3 or 4, but you never know. In the every changing NL West, anything is possible.
Top Prospects:
1. Kyle Lewis-OF
2. Zack Litell - P
3. Matt Thaiss-1B.
4. Josh Naylor-1B.
5. Keegan Thompson-P
6. Gavin Cecchini-SS
7. Santis Sanchez-C
The farm isn't heavily populated at the moment, but that doesn't mean there aren't good prospects in here.
Kyle Lewis has the best chance here of becoming an All Star OF, projecting to be an impact bat in the majors, but at some point, you have to wonder if he has the knees of Derrick Rose.
Litell came over to the Twins from the Yankees in the Jaime Garcia deal, and while his K's fell off with the Twins, by all accounts, he's a future #4 starter with a higher probability of starting than most Twin pitching specs.
Thaiss is probably the more famous name, but he hasn't shown the power needed as a 1B, carrying a sub-400 SLG in A+ and AA this year as a 22 year old. Still he walks a lot and doesn't strike out too much, so the hope is he breaks out at some point.
Naylor was a highly drafted spec by the Marlins, but was sent by the Marlins not long after along with other specs to the Padres for Andrew Cashner and such. Everything I've read about him is that he's a power-reliant 1B who has questionable ability to hit at the highest level.......not the greatest endorsement of a bad-body player. But he's got immense raw power, so the upside is high.
Thompson was the Cubs draft pick, getting an over slot bonus this year around half a million dollars. He's more of a pitchability guy, from everything I've read. Cecchini has done better than his brother in professional baseball, but he's stalled out at AAA and looks like a future utility guy at best. Sanchez is the most intriguing name on the list, boasting huge raw power and a strong arm. The only question is if he can ever hit, which he hasn't consistently shown. I know Justin isn't a fan, but as a former 7th round pick of mine, I'll be rooting for him.
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Post by Rays GM 北海道日(Will) on Dec 16, 2017 20:20:03 GMT -5
29. Washington Nationals
GM: Bryan
2017 Record:141-128-25
2018 Payroll: $62.10
2019 Payroll: $57.35
2020 Payroll: $56.10
Farm: Weak
Picks: Very Few
Notable Batters: HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SB
Christian Yelich- OF 18 81 .282 .369 .439 16
Jose Abreu-1B 33 102 .304 .354 .552 3
Yasiel Puig - OF 28 74 .263 .346 .487 15
Salvador Perez-C 27 80 .268 .297 .495 1
Notable Pitchers: ERA K's/9 WHIP W SV H
Trevor Bauer- SP 4.19 10.00 1.37 17 0 0
S. Strasburg -SP 2.52 10.47 1.02 15 0 0
J. Hellickson - SP 5.43 5.27 1.26 8 0 0
Sam Dyson - RP 6.09 6.40 1.42 4 14 4
Easily the most talented ML team so far in the ranking, the Nationals have a rather top heavy roster. Yelich is probably one of the more underrated player in baseball, and with his nice contract, he's a nice piece to have. Puig had a bounceback year, in addition to Salvador Perez, and along with Abreu, who's been quite consistent, this is a solid middle of the order lineup. Otherwise, there's a distinct lack of players who can flesh out the offense.
On the pitching side, Strasburg was ridiculous in the second half, and Bauer did what he did best: Show potential without full reaching it. Hellickson was awful, but at least he's a warm body......on a 4 year contract. Sam Dyson combusted last year, but at least he got some saves in SF. At this point, he's on his last ML legs, and he's only useful for his save value, becuase his ERA is mediocre, and he doesn't K anybody. Anyways, Bryan has the cap to make some moves here to fill out the pitching side, but pitching is awfully expensive here, so we'll see.
The good thing about the roster is that there is no longer an awful cap situation. There's money left for the next 3 years, giving a decent amount of flexibility. In addition, the NL East is probably the weakest division in ODC, so there's a chance for the team to compete within the next two years. After that, with ATL, Phi, and MIA on the rise, it's going to be very tough. There isn't much of a farm to speak of, and there aren't many picks left after I bought most of them.
Top Prospects:
1. Clint Frazier - OF
2. Dilson Herrera - 2B
3. Cole Freeman -2B
4. Jonathan holder -RP
Frazier is probably one of the more polarizing specs in baseball. As it is, I think he's going to get his chance somewhere else next year, after the Yankees move him for a SP. He's an interesting candidate to become a 20-20 OF, but I'm lower on him than most people. I think he's a good spec that fits snugly around the 50-60 range on top prospects list.
Herrera had a chance to take a job in Cincy, but he struggled all year in the minors. I dunno, the bat has potential, but I'm not a fan. This might be his last chance. He doesn't supply enough power to be that free-swinging, and he doesn't provide much SB value
I like Freeman. Gritty, quick, a good eye, high contact, almost no power. A prototypical 2b prospect. He's interesting.
Holder is a relief prospect who stuck on a reliever heavy organization. He might need a change of scenery.
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Post by Rays GM 北海道日(Will) on Dec 16, 2017 20:43:09 GMT -5
28. Cleveland Indians
GM: Psych
2017 Record: 110-161-23
2018 Payroll: $32.00
2019 Payroll:$41.60
2020 Payroll: $36.00
Farm: Below Average
Picks: Moderate
Notable Batters: HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SB
Miguel Cabrera-1B 16 60 .249 .329 .399 0
Robinson Cano-2B 23 97 .280 .338 .453 1
Nick Markakis- OF 8 76 .275 .354 .384 0
Notable Pitchers: ERA K's WHIP W SV H
Max Scherzer-SP 3.68 268 0.90 16 0 0
I had the Indians last, but a few things happened. First, Zack amnestied Felix, then he was replaced by Psych, which meant that the Indians received another amnesty. That's basically a free draft of picks for the franchise. Plus, it's hard to doubt Psych's track record in putting together a team. Things are definitely looking up.
Still, the AL Central is brutal. The Twins, White Sox, Royals, and the Tigers are all teams with competitive aspirations with savvy GM's, making it currently the AL's toughest division.
The ML Roster is getting gutted, with Longoria already gone, Cano and Cabrera soon to follow, and the rest to be demoted or waived. I like Markakis. He's probably the steadiest bat in baseball. Sandy Leon has a hot start for the Red Sox as their catcher to begin the year, but he cooled off big time as the year went on. Scherzer is amazing, enough said -- but he's probably going to be dealt pretty soon.
Top Prospects:
1.Trevor Rogers-SP
2. Justin Dunn-SP
3. Casey Gillapsie- 1B
4. Jacob Nottingham-C
I freaking love Trevor Rogers. I was planning to take him in the late 1st this summer, but he got snatched away from me. For shame. Either way, lefties with that velocity, height and projection are hard to come by. He's a guy i'll probably ask psych for a hundred more times within the next year.
Dunn's stock nosedived after a bad year. But the stuff is still there. I'd love to buy low on him.
Gillapsie didn't hit at all last year in AAA at 24 years of age, but he was highly regarded before that, so I think he has a good chance to rebound. He might be blocked by Jake Bauers tho in Tampa.
Nottingham is ranked lower because there are more questions about his glove, he struck out a similarly high rate as Smith (albeit at AA), with less walks, a lower AVG (.209), and less power (.369 SLG) in his age 22 season. Still, if continues tapping into the power, he could be a backup one day.
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Post by Rays GM 北海道日(Will) on Dec 16, 2017 21:01:58 GMT -5
27. Milwaukee Brewers
GM: Nick
2017 Record: 141-130-23
2018 Payroll: $102.15
2019 Payroll: $107.20
2020 Payroll: $77.70
Farm: Below Average
Picks: Moderate
Notable Batters: HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SB
Paul Goldschmidt-1B 36 120 .297 .404 .563 18
Daniel Murphy-2B 23 93 .322 .384 . 543 2
Adrian Beltre-3B 17 71 .312 .383 .532 1
Ian Desmond-SS 7 40 .274 .326 .375 15
Yuli Guerriel-1B 18 75 .299 .332 .486 3
Eddie Rosario-OF 27 78 .290 .328 .507 9
Luis Valbuena-IF 22 65 .199 294 .432 0
Notable Pitchers: ERA K's/9 WHIP W SV H
Carson Fulmer-SP/RP 3.86 7.33 1.24 3 0 0
Luis Perdomo-SP 4.67 6.49 1.51 8 0 0
Luis Cessa-SP 4.75 7.50 1.47 0 0 0
The first big upset. As it is, this ranking is pretty much based on financials, context and pitching. The offense is very strong, and the farm is pretty interesting, if uneven, but the ML pitching is below average to bad, and the amount of money committed for the next two years is not pretty.It might be time to get someone to take Tulo by packaging him with picks or specs to free up the situation.
On the O side, you'll find impact player like Goldy, Gurriel, Murphy, Reynolds, Beltre, and Desmond, along with supporting cast players like Valbuena and Rosario who both provide a surpising amount of pop. But its done in completely by the pitching, which ranges from guys you wouldn't want starting in most fantasy formats. Then again, there's some back end guys like Perdomo and Cessa who can stem the bleeding. Michael Lorenzen did have a good year as a reliever tho. In addition, he might be the best two way player in baseball besides Shohei Otani.
(Carson Fulmer's combustion hurts a lot here, and he might end up being a reliever in the very end instead of the ace he looked liked when he was drafted.)
The farm is solid, with interesting names sprinkled in, and led by dynamo Dylan Cease, but the problem is the competition in the division. Every team (STL, CIN, PIT, HOU, CHC) all have pieces to compete now and into the future. It's quite the underrated division, even with the demise of CubCorps and Cody selling off a lot of his best veteran players. Ever team here is a playoff contender, and someone has to be last. I'm really not sure if there's a path to contention here.
Top Prospects:
1. Dylan Cease
3. Stephen Gonsalves
2. Micker Adolfo
3. Taylor Clarke
4. Kevin Kramer
5. Chris Seise
6. Victor Reyes
7.Travis Demerritte
8. Brandon Bailey
All aboard! Let's get on the Micker Adolfo hype train (again). After being disappointing for a couple years, Adolfo burst out in single A at the age of 20 to swat 16 HR's, showing off his terrific raw power and incredible raw arm strength. He's your typical slugging RF prospect. While he still strikes out too much and doesn't take enough walks, he's really started to recognize pitches and balanced his approach to become a more complete hitter. He's incredibly risky, but ff there's a guy who can become a star in this system, its Adolfo.
Cease is also a much ballyhooed SP prospect with an overpowering fastball-curve combination. Control is the issues though, and more than a few people think he's a reliever. If he gets it under control, however, he could be a big time SP spec soon.
I like Gonsalves. His name often appears on top 100 lists and elicits mostly an "eh", but he's a good bet to be at least a #4, if not a #3. That's pretty solid, honestly, and would bring stability to the Brewers pitching staff. Clarke is in the same mold too: Safe, unexciting, but a ML player at the end of the day.
Kramer was breaking out this year as a 2B prospect for the pirates, until he hurt his hand midseason. He's already 24, but he supplies pop (.500 SLG at AA this year), and he shows a patient approach, with a .380 OBP. He's a guy I think is really underrated, and if it wasn't for the injury, could be a dark horse for top 100 lists.
Seise is an intersting SS prospect. He's got plus speed and looks to be a strong defensive SS. He's got some raw power too that I didn't realize he had (.509 SLG in the AZl). I'm a little mad I passed on him in the draft.
Reyes and Tocci has interesting years in the MILB, and I believe they're unprotected for the real life rule V. I have reyes above tocci because of the SB's factor, but both (probably?) are 4th OF's in the end. Demeritte has power, but K's like he's a corner IF. Bailey went to the Astros from the A's in the Laureano deal. He's stocky and short, but there's stuff that will play in the MLB, either as a reliever or a starter.
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Post by Rays GM 北海道日(Will) on Dec 16, 2017 21:21:21 GMT -5
26. Boston Red Sox
GM: The Funniest Person in ODC
2017 Record: 77-192-25
2018 Payroll: $ 107.70
2019 Payroll: $27.70
2020 Payroll: $5.50
Farm: Strong
Picks: Plenty
Notable Batters:
Lmao
Notable Pitchers:
Lmao
At the end of the day, I think my farm is top 3, but I'm not kidding when I say the AL East is going to be the best division on ODC. The Orioles and Rays are still presently very good, and there's two very good farms in Tor and NYY. It's just a brutal division. I would bet Acuna that the next AL WS winner is going to come from the AL East.
My ML roster speaks is, um, a little empty. My cap situation is pretty clean as of this moment, but I don't think I'm the type to make win now moves in FA, so I'll probably just use my money to buy rule v picks lol (I'm not kidding when I say that). That might push back my timeline as of this moment past the 5 year mark used for these rankings, but I'm playing the waiting game with my roster. I would rank myself higher if I extended this ranking to a 10 year window.
Top Prospects
1. Forrest Whitley-SP
2. Victor Robles-OF
3. Ronald Acuna-OF
4. Brent Honeywell-SP
5. Francisco Mejia-C
6. Royce Lewis-SS
7. Jesus Sanchez-OF
8. Adonis Medina-SP
9. Juan Soto-OF
10. Justin Williams-OF
11. Heliot Ramos-OF
12. Jorge Guzman-SP
13. Ronaldo Hernandez-C
14. Luis Medina-SP
15. Andres Gimenez-SS
16. Sam Carlson-SP
17. Vidal Brujan-2B
Yo, this is gonna be lit.
People are gonna bash me for putting Whitley ahead of Robles and Acuna, but at the same time, I feel the value of pitching in ODC is extreme, and having a 19 year old kid with monster stuff carve up AA is insanely promising for his trade value in the future. In the end, he's got 3-4 plus pitches with improving control and a projectable frame. The talent is there for him to be a star. I've heard Josh Johnson comparisons on him, which seems more than fair.
Robles and Acuna are interchangeable. Acuna has more power, Robles has the better approach. Acuna might shift to RF, while Robles probably stays in CF. I dunno. Either way, these are 5 tool guys with premium premium value.
I paid a heavy price for Honeywell, but at the end of the day, it's hard not to snatch up another #2 starter. He's got less pure raw stuff than Whitley, but the control is stronger. The screwball is what he's known for, but he doesn't rely on that completely. He's got other pitches to use (Curve,Change, Cutter) that he mixes really well. He's the future ace of the Rays.
I love Mejia. His bat is probably the safest bet to go .300 and 20 Hr's per year, but the question is whether he's going to stick at C given the Indians are looking to move him around and play 3b and catcher next year. I'll support that. Catchers who can hit that well and have multi positional eligibility are the rarest of unicorns in fantasy. He's got the arm strength to play well in both positions; my only wariness is that 3B is very new to him, and he'll need adjustment time to produce.
Lewis is a fave of mine. I had Gore, Lewis, Wright, Greene, Faedo, Mckay at the time of the draft, and I stick by it. Lewis has very good bat to ball skills, a good eye, plus plus speed, and intriguing raw power. Now, I think the only reason he wasn't the top spec in the draft was because no one is sure if he's going to stick at SS. If not, he moves to CF. But still, guys who hit .300, 15 HR's, with 30 Steals are stars either way. Plus, he's a great kid with a good work ethic. Love it.
Sanchez and Soto are spliced in between Medina, which is an aggresive ranking, on many parts, but the reason I did this was because Sanchez is a 5 tool player, Medina has a good chance to become a #3 starter with plenty of K's in the majors, and while Soto's bat is really promising, he won't impact the game at a premium position or with speed. He's an all bat guy, and that could be tricky projecitng in the lower levels.
I have Williams at 11, but maybe that's too low? He had a breakout year at AA at the age of 21
(.301 .364 .489 .853 with 14 hr's in 366 AB's), and looks to have finally tapped into that immense raw power of his. His approach is solid, and in my eyes, is a backend top 100 spec next year. If I still had Alford, he would have ranked here.
Putting Heliot and Jorge together is perfect. They both possess immense upside, jorge especially (He sits at 99 MPH with his fastbal as a SP! He can have an 80 FB and a 70 SL when he's at the majors!), but are still very far from the majors. Its an upside play.
Ronaldo is a guy I wanted badly in the rule V. He's a very strong defensive catcher, and his bat has been exceptional in the Appy League last year as a 19 year old (332 .382 .507 .889). Two way catchers are hard to find, so thats why I moved him up.
Luis Medina might have the biggest upside in the system.
Gimenez and Brujan have the same profile: not overly athletic, but good approach, advanced, speedy. I prefer Gimenez in the end because he has more power potential.
I dealt Soroka away for Carlson and Antuna and 7 million. I'd do it again, because Carlson is the rare, polished HS SP spec with upside.
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Post by Rays GM 北海道日(Will) on Dec 17, 2017 0:33:10 GMT -5
25. Oakland Athletics
GM: JT
2017 Record: 162-117-15
2018 Payroll: $94.15
2019 Payroll: $109.85
2020 Payroll: $39.20
Farm: Weak
Picks: None
Notable Batters HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SB
Ryon Healy-3b/1B 25 78 .271 .302 .451 0
Wellington Castillo-C 20 53 .282 .323 .490 0
Scooter Gennett-2B 27 97 .295 .342 .531 3
Eugenio Suarez-3B 26 82 .260 .367 .461 4
Eduardo Nunez-3B 12 58 .321 353 .539 24
Adam Jones-CF 26 73 .285 .322 .466 2
Adam Duvall-LF 31 99 .249 .301 .480 5
Mark Trumbo-RF 23 65 .234 .289 .397 1
Brandon Crawford-SS 14 77 .253 .305 .403 3
Notable Pitchers ERA K/9 WHIP W SV H
Ivan Nova-SP 4.14 6.3 1.278 11 0 0
Bret Suter-SP 3.42 7.1 1.286 3 0 0
Gio Gonzalez-SP 2.96 8.4 1.179 15 0 0
Shelby Miller-SP 4.09 8.2 1.455 2 0 0
This was tough. I had it between Jack and JT. In the end, the cap situation won out. JT's going to have to dig out of salary cap hell next year. Oh well, he has a pretty damn intriguing team for this year.
It starts with the O. The 2018 ODC A's are going to be the real life A's: Lots of K's, tons of pop, and not a single worry about defense. Duvall, Gennett, Healy, Nunez, Suarez, Trumbo, Jones, and Castillo form a startlingly solid lineup. Sure, there's a lot that could go wrong, but on the right day, there are very few teams that can run with this firepower. It also depends if you believe the live ball era is still going to continue next year. If you do, watch out.
Pitching wise, it's an incredibly risky rotation. Anytime Gio Gonzalez is your most consistent pitcher, then you know it's going to be an "interesting" pitching season. I believer Shelby Miller can rebound. If he does, there's a solid #3 starter there. Nova is going to have to rebound too -- there isn't much depth here. There's only so much cap here to help the pitching rotation. If you want to believer in Suter and Eolvadi, that's fine. It's probably not a good idea though. Either way, the scariest thing is besides Gio, this rotation doesn't get K's. Frankly, its the Achilles heel of this team. The bullpen is also a bit empty too.
I'm not sure how to feel about this team. It's an incredibly risky team on the pitching side, but consistently superior on the O side. I think, given the raw power of this team, the A's make a serious run towards the WC this year. Beyond that, I can't say for sure, because Texas and SEA are both solid teams and built for another couple years (or more), and there's an incredibly intriguing Angels team lurking just below in the division basement.
Top Prospects:
1. Ronny Rafael
2. Cole Stobbe
Rafael has never hit for enough average to showcase his loud power. As it is, I think he's still has another shot to turn it around in the Astros system. He's only 20, but running out of time. He's never made it to full season ball.
Stobbe isn't sexy. The name itself says it. Still, he's not far removed from being a 3rd round draft pick, so I guess there's hope. Despite solid reports on the bat potential, he needs to improve on his .655 OPS in the NYPL last year. If it comes all together for him, he could be a solid regular.
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Post by Rays GM 北海道日(Will) on Dec 17, 2017 2:14:25 GMT -5
24. New York Mets
GM: Jack
2017 Record: 125-142-27
2018 Payroll:$53.85
2019 Payroll:$27.00
2020 Payroll: $0.00
Farm: Weak
Picks: None
Notable Batters: HR RBI BA OBP SLG SB
Mookie Betts-OF 24 102 .264 .344 .459 26
Jorge Polanco-IF 13 74 .256 .313 .410 13
Didi Gregorious-SS 25 87 .287 .318 .478 3
Michael Conforto-LF 27 68 .279 .384 .555 2
Jackie Bradley-CF 17 63 .245 .323 .402 8
Notable Pitchers: ERA K/9 WHIP W SV H
Chris Stratton 3.68 7.8 1.483 4 1 0
Kevin Gausman 4.68 8.6 1.495 11 0 0
The Mets finished 4th in the division last year. But while the Nats moved down because of salary cap hell, the phillies moved up because of a group of very solid position players coming up who while aren't incredibly sexy, are solid (They're the like the real life A's, who have a really underrated young hitting core).
Anyways, this is a team with natural talent and unfulfilled potential that hasn't been tapped yet. JBJ, Polanco, and Betts are the most perplexing players I've witnessed. They're guys who I think have tons more natural talent than they have shown throughout their career (with the exception of Betts for his glorious MVP campaign in 2016). There is room to grow with this roster, and with lots of cap left, this core isn't done yet. Still, Betts and JBJ are a 5, and the best player here (Didi) might be on his last year; there might be an extension coming for Sir Didi, but that isn't a guarantee. Still a core of Didi, Conforto, Mookie, JBJ, and Polonco can surprise people in a good way.
Pitching wise, it's really the same story. Stratton and Gausman showed solid peripherals last year, but Gausman especially struggled with consistency last year. At some point, I think Gausman is the guy with frontline stuff but who settles in a mid-rotation role because he never quite learns the fine art of pitching. I dunno, I blame the Orioles. Something always happens to their pitchers. The reason I decided to rank the Mets below the Tigers despite the huge difference in division was the fact that the pitching here is really thin. And without any prospects and picks to deal, Jack's going to have to buy pitching through the FA market. That's never cheap.
Anyways, this is a......volatile roster. I'll say that. With the cap and a high ceiling core, this team can move up within the next 2-3 years. I don't doubt that. The NL East is still weak, and needs time for it become formidable. But still, having no picks and farm is a big handicap, so the Mets will need someone to break out to make a real push to contention soon. If Gausman and Polanco realize their potential, and Mookie rebounds, I think this ranking will look bad by next year.
But that's a big if.
Top Prospects:
1. Billy Mckinney-OF/1B
2. Dan Vogelbach-1B
You know what? I like McKinney a lot. He's a good spec. I've probably done more reading on the Yankees farm than any other farm in baseball, and all I keep hearing is how much livelier he looked this year. He's recovered from his knee injury that derailed him a while back, and his bat has shown that. Now, is he an all star? Nah. But I think he can be an average regular. He's got experience in the OF, and 1B, which increases his versatility. He's a good player- a grinder.
Vogelback has never hit in the majors, and he's stuck at 1B. At some point, you gotta realize someone has capped out at their ceiling. Still, that power..........
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Post by Rays GM 北海道日(Will) on Dec 17, 2017 3:28:38 GMT -5
23. Los Angeles Dodgers
Gm: Nate Stu Alex Cammy Jake 2017 Record: 89-180-25 2018 Payroll: $33.55 2019 Payroll: $7.50 2020 Payroll: $0.00
Farm: Below Average Picks: Moderate Notable Batters: HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SBWhit Merrifield-2B 19 78 .288 .324 .460 34 David Dahl-LF None-Injured Jeimer Candelario-3B 3 16 .283 .359 .425 0 Brandon Nimmo-CF 5 21 .260 .379 .418 2 Stephen Piscotty-RF 9 39 .235 .342 .367 3 Dansby Swanson-SS 6 51 .232 .312 .324 3 Jesus Aguilar-1B 16 52 .265 .331 .505 0
Notable Pitchers: ERA K/9 WHIP W SV HLance McCullers-SP 4.25 10.0 1.298 7 0 0 Viva la Vida! Gambling is back in the wonderful town of LA. Jake, as the new Dodgers GM, is willing to take chances. He bought low on Swanson and and Piscotty, and bought high on Brandon Nimmo and Jesus Aguilar. Meanwhile, he's taken on McCullers and Dahl, guys who have a problematic injury history, and he parted with blue chipper Michael Kopech in the process. If it all pans out, he has a new young core to launch the Dodgers forward. Really, this is basically a roided out version of the Mets with a better farm: Dangerously volatile, and unpredictable. There's really a million ways this roster can split off. We'll start with the young position players. Swanson famously struggled this year, and there's questions he'll ever hit enough to be a first division starter. I think it would be prudent to be patient. He still has a good eye, and he might just need more time to adjust to ML pitching and its high octane fastballs. Still, 120 K's from a middle IF with below average power probably won't play well in Fantasy, and his glove isn't good enough to let him hold that Braves job forever. Then there's guys who are teetering closer to the edge than most would think. Whit Merrifield and Aguilar are in the same boat to me. Both had breakout years last year, but somehow, they don't pass the sniff test. They struck out entirely too much without much of a walk rate, their MILB track records are spotty at best. Maybe they're late bloomers, but I'm not sold. As it is, Whit's probably the better bet to remain relevant. He's a middle IF who can fall back on his SB's to still be a useful Fantasy player. I sense a sophomore slump for Aguilar. I don't think anyone has doubts that Dahl can hit in the majors, especially at Coors. I guess the only question is on health, where he suffered a rib cage injury this year that festered. If he's fine, he's going to hit his way onto the loaded Rockies lineup. Then there's the case of Stephen Piscotty. He had a solid two years in STL, before slumping this year after multiple injuries and playing under the specter of his mother's illness (ALS). It's an incredibly frightening and stressful situation, and somehow, I think him being closer to her in Oakland (His family lives on the WC), will do wonders for him. I think he's going to rebound, and big time. On the other hand, there's Brandon Nimmo. I like him! He has a bit of power, speed and positional versatility. One note or warning: He ran a .360 BABIP last year. That might not be sustainable, and despite his well rounded ability, he doesn't have a standout tool to carry him. I think he'll be a good bench OF. Oh! And can't forget about Jeimer Candelario. By all means, he had a decent introduction to the bigs this year, and if he can stick at 3B, he projects to be league average regular. Ho-hum. It might be weird to say this, but the prospect just might be the most stable hitter here. On the pitching side, there probably isn't much to say beyond McCullers. McCullers is (and always will be) a frightening injury risk because over his over usage of his wicked curveball. Beyond him, there isn't much pitching depth here. Luckily, with the amount of cap available for this roster, that shouldn't be a problem to remedy. Overall, given the farm's best spec is coming off a major injury, the lineup is filled with questionable, albeit exciting position players, and there is a glut of cap available to address a shake pitching situation, the Dodgers have the potential to move up quickly with a young core, or collapse towards the bottom by next year. As it is, I believe in the players here, and there's a good chance the team will progress to playoff contention within two years. Top Prospects:
1. Dustin Fowler-OF 2. Chance Sisco-C 3. Blake Rutherford-OF 4. JD Davis -3B 5. Logan Shore-SP 6. Sean Reid-Foley-SP 7. Stuart Fairchild -OF 8. Hunter Dozier I spent an hour writing up this whole system when it had Kopech and Lewis and Naylor and Lange and such. As it is, a few moves later, my job is much easier. Big fan of Dustin Fowler. Tried for months to get Fowler from Matt, but he didn't budge. I understand. Before his horrible injury (which, interestingly enough, he's now suing the White Sox and their wretched field for), Fowler showed a nice blend of power, speed, and plate discipline. He was a top 50 spec in my eyes -- now, post knee injury, he's going to have to show he still has that speed and power. He might never be the same again. Sisco was okay in AAA last year, hitting to the tune of a .736 OPS in AAA at the age of 22. His catching has improved, but he's no ace with the glove. His bat is going to have to be better to show he can stick as a viable ML player. If not, he's fantasy rosterable. Blake Rutherford generated a lot of hype coming into this year, but he hit poorly this year, and there are questions if his power will ever come. I want to like him a lot -- he's exactly the kind of projectable, well rounded prospect I like. Still, if the power isn't there, he's probably a 4th OF. Davis has loads of power, but he might never hit enough to make it into the majors. Plus, he's blocked by guys like Colin Moran and Bregman at 3B. He might need a position (and team) change.
Shore had an okay year at A+, but projects as a #4 starter, at best. Foley was a top 100 guy coming into the year, but was lit up in AA. He needs serious work on his command. Fairchild was a second round pick who has speed, pop, and a penchant to take walks. That'll work. I'll always remember Dozier as the guy the Royals took so they could have money to sign Sean Manea. He's 26 now, and still posting okay numbers in AAA, but he played only about 40 games this year due to injury. Still, with the exodus of players in KC, he might get one more shot......
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Post by Rays GM 北海道日(Will) on Dec 17, 2017 4:28:22 GMT -5
22. Miami Marlins
GM: Kevin
2017 Record:
2018 Payroll: $13.05
2019 Payroll: $34.40
2020 Payroll: $0.00
Farm: Above Average
Picks: Moderate
Notable Batters: HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SB
Jose Ramirez 3B 29 83 .318 .374 .583 17
Maikel Franco 3B 24 76 .230 .281 .409 0
Kevin Pillar CF 16 42 .256 .300 .404 15
Ronald Torreyes 3 36 .292 .314 .375 2
Notable Pitchers: ERA K/9 WHIP W SV H
Lucas Giolito 2.38 6.8 .949 3 0 0
Jose Berrios 3.89 8.6 1.23 14 0 0
Hmm......this might prove to be a controversial decision. As it is, this is where GM track record and division strength matters. I don't necessarily think the Marlin are in a stronger position than the Dodgers just based on rosters, but the NL West is a different beast from the NL East. I see an easier path to contention here for the Marlins, just based on the farm.
The offense is light, but only because there was a recent, mini sell off. Really, there's only one guy that probably needs attention, but what a guy -- Jose Ramirez is the kind of player every contending team needs. I bet Kevin is fielding PM's every day about him. He's a stud, an MVP candidate, and still has a ridiculous contract until 2021 for 5 years, 26 million dollars
5 years, 26 million dollars!
Kevin Pillar is nice. Torreyes has valuable versatility. Maikel Franco isn't done yet. But it's really a one man wrecking show.
The pitching side of this team is deep. Besides the pitching heavy farm, there's Lucas Giolito, who looked better this year than last, showing livelier stuff and better control. Jose Berrios was much better in 2017 than his disastrous MLB debut in 2016. Once you put Walker Buehler in that group, you get a frighteningly good foundation for a rotation. Still, there is the matter of health risk, with this core, which bumps it down a little.
Top Prospects:
1. Walker Buehler-SP
2.Taylor Trammell-OF
3. Fernando Romero-SP
4. Kyle Funkhouser-SP
5. Mike Soroka-SP
6. Tony Santillan-SP
7. Erik Fedde-SP
8. Joey Luchessi-SP
9. Logan Warmoth-SS
10. Alex Kiriloff-OF
11. Nick Solak-2B
12. Jose de Leon-SP/RP
13. Merandy Gonzalez-SP
14. Nick Allen-SS
15. Jelfy Marte-SS
Straight up, I made a mistake dealing Buehler and Trammell. Buehler was the first guy I dealt, and he went for, essentially, Matt Manning.
Oops.
Then I dealt Trammell, and ended up with Luis Campusano. Not great.
Anyways, Buehler has ace upside, combining monster stuff with steady control. He's going to slot nicely behind Kershaw in that rotation. Only one question: Can he stay healthy enough for him to be an impact starter? He has a slight frame, and has a history of arm troubles. Still, the sky is the ceiling.
Trammell showed exceptional polish last year, drawing walks while showcasing his future 20-40 ability. He was a steal for the Reds in the comp round, and if he continues developing, he's going to be a star. Think Adam Jones.
Natty got a steal in last year's draft by nabbing Romero. He broke out, and features a blazing arsenal that screams a K-heavy #3 starter. Still, there are health problems here, as he dealt with some shoulder issues over the year. That's something to watch for.
Funkhouser really rebounded this year, showing improved his stuff from his last year in college. He's part of a crop of Detroit SP specs (Faedo, Burrows, Manning, Perez) that is really quite solid. He's another mid-rotation guy in this farm.
Admittedly, when I dealt Mike Soroka, I wasn't a big fan. I still feel the same. I feel he might be a better real life pitcher than fantasy pitcher, given he'll never strike out too many guys. But he has a crazy amount of polish and pitchability, and excelled at AA at 19 last year. That's really impressive. He's a mid rotation guy, but in ODC, his value will be less than a Funkhouser or Romero.
Santillan broke out this year, showing a nasty fastball, slider combo. I really like him, but there are questions if he can remain a starter.
Meanwhile, Fedde and Luchessi are probably starters, but there's a wide range of opinions on them on what kind of starters they'll be. Even though Fedde's star has faded, I still believe in him enough to become a #3, but plenty disagree. Luchessi is very nice, and safe.
I liked Warmoth in the draft when I took him (also, why does Kevin have a lot of my former specs?). I thought he would be a safe choice. I still think he is. Krilikoff is a fave, showing off his strong hitting ability in the Appy league last year. Unfortunately, he got injured and required TJ surgery.
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Post by Rays GM 北海道日(Will) on Dec 17, 2017 12:18:32 GMT -5
21. Los Angeles Angels
GM: John
2017 Record: 32-238--24
2017 Payroll: $99.45
2018 Payroll: $20.95
2019 Payroll: $18.45
Farm: Strong
Picks: Above Average
Notable Batters HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SB
Rhys Hoskins-1B 18 48 .259 .396 .618 2
The Angels sneak in right before the top-20, and while this might be an aggressive ranking based on last year's record, there's a really solid future core here.
Everything begins with Rhys Hoskins, who hit like the Babe's incarnate last year. I think his breakout caught most everyone by surprise, and while he probably won't hit like that again, he's still an above average regular at 1B, with a possible move coming to the OF. Either way, all his peripherals check out, which makes him a really valuable asset in ODC.
I think that's pretty much it, actually. Still, I want to my reasoning for this ranking. This is a really deep farm, which always gets points, and some of the prospects are closer than they appear. The cap situation is clean enough next year that moves can still be made to add to the teams core, and there are plenty of picks available as trade ammo. Meanwhile, the AL West is a solid division, but it isn't on the level of the AL Central and East, which makes John's path a bit easier to one day take the crown. That day is still a long way off, which is why LAA is behind Sea and Tex.
Top Prospects
1. Brendan Rodgers
2. Hunter Greene
3. Kyle Wright
4. Keston Hiura
5. Keibert Ruiz
6. Jahmai Jones
7.Mitchell White
8. Jack Flaherty
9. Eric Lauer
10. Yordan Alvarez
11. Cole Tucker
12. Yunior Severino
13. Tyler Stephenson
14. Oscar Mercado
15. Tristen Lutz
16. Sheldon Neuse
17. Jordy Barley
18. Adam Haseley
19. Kevin Padlo
20. AJ Reed
I love this farm. It has a combination of jaw dropping upside with safer, ML ready prospects. The big upside comes in the first two, where Brendan Rodgers profiles as an all worlds crusher in Coors, and Hunter Greene has easy premium velo with surprising control. Both need work tho; Rodgers on his batting eye, Greene on his breaking pitches.
Kyle Wright was a top overall pick this year, and I ranked him above Keston Hiura solely because pitching gets all the love on here. Addmitedly, not a Hiura guy, but everyone else seems to be, so at some point I've got to give in.
Keibert was fantastic as a teenager in high A this year, and if he stick at catcher, he has a chance to be an All star. That's hardly a guarantee tho. Jahmai Jones leads a revamped Angels farm (in ODC, and in real life), showing off the ability to be a 5 tool OF one day. He's a top 70 spec, I think.
White, Flaherty, Lauer are the group of the closest Angels pitching spec, reinforcing a lacking pitching staff on the ML level. White gets the nod here becuase he has the highest upside; Lauer brings up the rear because he's a #5 guy, with decent odds of getting moved to the bullpen one day.
Yordan Alvarez needs to hit his way to get to the majors as a 1B. I think he can, but that profile is always risky. Tucker and Severino are the duo of high potential IF in the system -- Severino is an especially hard swinger, and of all the braves specs released thru penalty, he improved his stock the most last year.
Stephenson showed impressive plate coverage last year, and limited his K's while upping his BB's. He's a bit old for A ball, but he has time to develop as a catcher at the highest level. He still has serious pop.
Oscar Mercado broke out last year after a shift to the OF cleared his head, showing the power-speed threat he was billed as a top prospect during the draft process. Still, he K's way too much. He might be an interesting 4th OF one day, a guy who's streaky but hits bombs and swipes bases. There' fantasy value in that.
I had Lutz above Haseley, which seems weird. But Lutz has game changing power, and everyday I look at Haseley, the more boring he seems. No standout tools, no elite bat. That's a problem.
Barley has come a long way as a Padres IFA signing, showing improved hitting skills. He's another high upside Middle IF in their system. Meanwhile, Neuse is a bad bodied, offensive reliant player in the A's system. That's like, hilariously on point as it gets.
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Post by Rays GM 北海道日(Will) on Dec 17, 2017 14:06:53 GMT -5
20. Detroit Tigers
Gm: Alex
2017 Record: 133-130-31
2018 Payroll: $108.05
2019 Payroll: $74.65
2020 Payroll: $67.50
Farm: Average
Picks: Moderate
Notable Batters: HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SB
George Springer-OF 34 85 .283 .367 .522 5
Michael Taylor-OF 19 53 .271 .320 .486 17
Lewis Brinson-OF 2 3 .106 .236 .277 1
Tyler Naquin-OF 0 1 .216 .250 .270 0
Brent Gardner-OF 21 63 .264 .350 .428 23
Nick Castellanos-3B 26 101 .272 .320 .490 4
Trevor Story-SS 24 82 .239 .308 .457 7
Notable Pitchers: ERA K/9 WHIP W SV H
Dylan Bundy-SP 4.24 8.1 1.196 13 0 0
Zack Greinke-SP 3.20 9.6 1.072 17 0 0
Adam Wainwright-SP 5.11 7.0 1.50 12 0 0
Marco Estrada-SP 4.98 8.5 1.382 10 0 0
R. Stephenson-SP 4.68 9.0 1.583 5 0 0
Kenta Maeda-SP 4.22 9.4 1.154 13 0 0
Johnny Cueto-SP 4.52 8.3 1.446 8 0 0
Tigers in the Outfield!
This team relies on a strong OF to carry it. Springer is an MVP candidate, Brinson has a chance to mash in Miller Park, Taylor broke out last year as the nationals CF, and Gardner has another solid year in the Bronx. Naquin took a major step back last year, losing his place in the Cleveland OF. But he can still hit, and might find a place elsewhere. Finding 3 OF's to play every day next year shouldn't be a problem for the Tigers, although Brinson and Taylor are among the riskier fantasy player given their strikeout rates.
The rest of the roster is leaky, although Castellenaos finally delivered on his promise last year. Story showed major holes in his swings, but still his light tower power. This is a strange offense that is top heavy, and relies extensively on better showing from most of its players to be sustainable. Still, at the end of the day, this is going to be a well above average offense when you factor in personal fave Willie Calhoun is going to have a ML role on the Ranger in some capacity. Dude can flat out mash. But he's probably going to be an OF too, so......it might be time for Alex to deal someone in the OF for some pitching.
The Tigers pitching has the claim of being both deeply intriguing and mildly unsettling. The rotation boasts a triplet of solid starters. Zack Greinke is the ace here. Given his profile, I think he'll age well and remain the ace for the remainder of his contract. Dylan Bundy is never going to be the ace he was meant to be, but he's still a more than serviceable #3 starter on here. Kenta Maeda showed off a live arm last year, with a meh ERA. Sounds like another mid-rotation starter to me who can rack up K's, but might not be much help elsewhere.
After that, it gets iffy. Wainwright hasn't been serviceable in two years, and I think it might be time to cut him. Cueto was disappointing last year, given that he was pitching in a pitcher's park. His walk rate almost doubled last year (from 1.8 in 2016 to 3.2 in 2017), while his HR/9 rate more than doubled (.6 to 1.3). These are troubling peripherals, but it's too early to cut bait just yet. If he truly is toast, then it might be prudent for Alex to amnesty him.
Then there's Robert Stephenson. I've always been a big fan of his since his prospect days, but he's become unsustainable with his control problems and become far too hittable to make that profile work. Still, his raw stuff is as dominant as any. Given the rate of high upside pitchers here, it's too early to give up on him.
This ranking might be too low, but at some point, with a cap situation that isn't as flexible as you want to make major upgrades, and a brutal division that going to make making the playoffs exceedingly difficult for the next 5 years, the Tigers have the unfortunate position of not being good enough in the present and future to make a real WS push. I think the best shot of making a real improvement here is amnestying Cueto and crossing your fingers you land a big time FA within the next two years.
Top Prospects:
1.Willie Calhoun-OF
2.Akil Badoo-OF
3. Jorge Mateo-SS
4. Anderson Espinoza-SP
5. Jose Siri-OF
6. Alex Jackson - C
7. Chris Shaw - 1B
8. Christian Arroyo-2B
9. Jake Burger - 3B
10. Joe Dunand - 3B
11. Garret Hampson-2B
12. Tyler Jay-Rp
13. Taylor Widener-SP/RP
Damn. This is actually an underrated farm. Calhoun's track record speaks for itself, showing a plus hit and power tool in in mashing his way to Texas this year. Still, his defensive drawbacks are going to force him to become a LF at some point.
Akkil Baddoo is a spec I can't get enough. He ran an OPS north of 1.000 in the Apply league as an 18 year old, walking more than he struck out, and showing enough power to be a future impact bat. He's definitely moved up in some top 100 lists -- the only thing he doesn't do is swipe bases.
Jorge Mateo broke out this year in AA after moving from the Yankees to the A's in the Gray trade. I've never been much of a fan, but that elite speed is going to give him a pretty high floor. If his bat is for real, that's an all star player. Espinoza showed three plus pitches with surprising control as a teenager in the low minors last year, before getting TJ. If he comes back healthy, he's going to develop very well in that Padres farm system.
Jose Siri was a bit old for single A at 22, but he showed power and speed at a premium position. If he continues to hit well in AA while cutting down on those K's, he's going to be a top 100 spec next year.
Alex Jackson broke out last year (funny how former Mariners' hitters always break out once they're traded....), showing plus power but still K'ing too much. I like him a lot, but if he can't make it as a catcher, he becomes a lot less interesting.
Arroyo was terrible last year in his first cup of coffee with the Giants. Still, he plays solid defense and projects to have a plus hit tool, if not much power. That's a good utility player.
Burger was an early first rounder this year, and he's a safe bet to move quickly with his plus power and unorthodox, ugly swing. But he hits, and long as he does, he's going to be a fine 3B one day.
Joe Dunand had huge raw power, and was taken in the 2nd round this year. Pure lottery ticket with massive payoff.
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Post by Rays GM 北海道日(Will) on Dec 17, 2017 23:16:40 GMT -5
19. Toronto Blue Jays
GM: Sanders
2017 Record: 85-187-22
2018 Payroll: $93.90
2019 Payroll: $8.50
2020 Payroll: $0.00
Farm: Strong
Picks: Moderate
Notable Batters: HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SB
Rafael Devers-3B 10 30 .284 .338 .482 3
Odubel Herrera 14 56 .281 .325 .452 8
Kolten Wong 4 42 .285 .376 .412 8
Jesse Winker 7 15 .298 .375 .529 1
Notable Pitchers: ERA K/9 WHIP W SV H
Zack Godley 3.37 9.6 1.142 8 0 0
Sean Manea 4.37 7.9 1.399 12 0 0
It's been a long time coming. There's a monster team lurking in Toronto, and is on the cusp of contention in the AL East. The farm is startlingly deep, and when it comes to pitching, this team can match any other roster. It all begins with the most hyped Japanese import into baseball since Kei Igawa: Shohei Otani.
Otani has all the ideal pitcher qualities. He throws three plus pitches, boasting a fastball that touches 100 along with a splitter that serves as a true out pitch. His slider is also plus, and he can also toss in two average pitches in a curve and change. He has plus control, and is a generally terrific athlete on the mound.
Still, there are a couple red flags with him. There was the obvious ankle injury he suffered rounding the bases last year in Japan, which cost him a couple weeks. Then, during his FA, teams were made aware of a Grade 1 strain with his UCL. It's the mildest kind of strain, but 1/3 of cases do eventually require TJ surgery at some point. Look for the Angels to be careful with him. He's the kind of franchise player that can swing an entire team's fortune.
He'll join Sean Manea and Zack Godley in the Toronto rotation, which is a good start to building a pithcing staff. Manea fits the #3 profile pretty well -- dynamic stuff, healthy amount of K's, but average ERA due to control and hittability issues. Godley broke out last year, but not everyone believes his rise was sustainable. Still, at the very least, he gets a healthy amount of K's. Look for him to fill the same mold as Manea.
On the hitting side, there's an all world crusher in Rafael Devers, who acclimated well to the Major was a 20 year old. He slumped a bit towards the end of season as pitchers adjusted to him, but he's one of the most gifted young hitters in baseball. Observe:
Woo! Btw, Devers + Betts > Judge + Stanton.
Anyways, Odubel Herrera had another solid year, posting another above average batting line as the Phillies CF. Meanwhile, Winker made his debut, showing off much more power than in his MILB days. Is it for real? Eh. My belief is the ball was juiced this year. We'll see if that kind of power is sustainable. If not, he's a nice complementary offensive piece, showing high average and OBP abilities.
Anyways, with other MILB pieces coming up, the future is coming together quickly for the Jays. Personally, the team was in the top 15 and 3rd in the AL East, but news about Otani's UCL was a little concerning. He's a big part of the team's future. As it is, this is a pitching heavy team, and building a team around pitching can be notoriously dangerous. It's why I dinged the team down a little bit, along with strength of division reasons. Still, the upside is immense. If it all comes together, the Jays will be hosting the ODC banner by 2020.
Top Prospects:
1. Vlad the Impaler-1B
2. Luiz Gohara-SP
3. Sixto Sanchez-SP
4. Estevial Florial-OF
5. Adrian Morejan-SP
6. Pavin Smith - 1B
7. Yadier Alvarez-SP
8. Jesus Luzardo-SP
9. Tyler Mahle-SP
10.Touki Toussaint-SP
11. Esteury Ruiz-SS
12. Lucius Fox
13. Tirso Ornelas-OF
14. Jake Bauers-1B
15. Lewis Thorpe-SP
16. Franchy Cordero-OF
Aight, quick rundown tonight because I'm busy. But this is a loaded system.
Vlad Guerrero JR is going to move to 1B at some point, which is okay, because he has plus plus hit and plus plus power. Dude is a beast. He smashed high A at age 18. That's just ridiculous.
Luiz Gohara is one of the many specs that blew up once he left the Mariners. He shows a high octane fastball with a nice slider. He's improved his conditioning a lot, and he's going to be a very good SP very quickly.
Sixto and Estevial are both incredibly projectable. Best case scenario is a #1 pitcher and a 30-30 OF, respectively. They have monstrous tools, but Sixto is definitely the more polished of the two.
Jesus Luzardo recovered well from TJ, and now shows a plus breaking fastball and breaking ball from the left side. Toussaint has probably the nastiest stuff in the minors, and he tooks steps to improve his control this year. He's got monstrous upside, but his control problems might relegate to him the bullpen one day.
Morejan received a big bonus from the Padres as an IFA, and it's easy to see why. He's got a chance for three plus pitches from the left side, and already sits at 92 as an 18 year old. He'll add more velocity as he matures.
Yadier has dynamic stuff, but like Touki, the control lags behind. He'll be a fantastic bullpen piece.
Fox and Estuery are both nice, high upside IF pieces.
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Post by Rays GM 北海道日(Will) on Dec 18, 2017 20:53:09 GMT -5
18. Philadelphia Phillies
GM: Kory
2017 Record: 81-187-26
2018 Payroll: $98.65
2019 Payroll: $10.85
2020 Payroll: $3.50
Farm: Strong
Picks: Plenty
Notable Batters HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SB
Amed Rosario-SS 4 10 .248 .271 .394 7
Kory gets the nod here over Sanders because of division strength. Still, he's got a nice nucleus of prospects who while don't possess the greatest upside, are relatively safe.
We'll start with Amed Rosario. He was a top 5 prospect last year, and was known for his offensive polish, above average speed, good contact abilities, and surprising pop. But he never walked much in the minors, and that showed in the bigs. In 170 AB's last year in the MLB, he walked 3 times, and K'd 49 times. That's not great, but he was only 21. He's got time. Look for him to develop, at his peak, into a 280/340/450 guy with 15 Hr's and 20 steals. That's his ceiling, but for a SS, that's pretty damn good.
Kory will look to fill out his minor with more depth. He's made some nice moves recently, grabbing Miguel Andujar (a future .280, 25 HR guy if he can overcome his aggressive approach at the plate) and Nick Gordon (not the biggest fan, but his speed and above average bat alone gives him a ML floor), while guys like Cal Quantrill, Beau Burrows, and Justus Sheffield have potential to be ML #3's.....or potentially more. In addition, hitters such as Cedric Mullins, Tyler O'neill, Will Smith can all be interesting role players very soon, despite some flaws in their prospect profile.
Which is to say this is rebuilding team, but it's not too far away. I'll give it a year, and given this is the NL East, Phillies might be a quick riser in the division. This could be a contender by 2020, given the relatively easy cap situation and horde of picks Kory has acquired.
Top Prospects:
1. Mackenzie Gore-SP
2. Justus Sheffield-SP
3. Miguel Andujar-3B
4. Christian Pache-OF
5. Beau Burrows-SP
6. Cal Quantirll-SP
7. Nick Gordon-SS
8.Corbin Burnes-SP
8. Will Smith-C
9. Brendan Mckay-SP
11. Luis Ortiz-SP
10. Tyler O'neill-OF
11. Garret Whitley-OF
12. Cedric Mullins-OF
13. Randy Arozarena-OF
15. Jairo Solis - SP
14. Seth Romero-SP
15. Vladimir Gutierrez-SP
16. Bobby Dalbec-3B
17. Dakota Hudson-SP
18. Willi Castro-SS
19. MJ Melendez-C
19. Shedric Long-2B
20. Brandon Lowe-2B
21. Andrew Knizner-C
22. Bobby Bradley - 1B
This is going to to take a bit.
Mackenzie Gore combines premium stuff with a chance for plus control. Unlike his HS rival Hunter Greene, he's a more well rounded pitcher with a chance for multiple plus breaking pitches. He was the number one guy on my board this summer.
Justus Sheffield showed off three plus pitches in the AFL, which is a rare feat for LHPs. Still, his height leads to some concern that he will be HR prone, especially in Yankee stadium, and he needs to refine his control. Otherwise, he has a chance to be a #2 guy one day. More likely, he'll be like Beau Burrows and Cal Quantrill and settle in as mid rotation guys who get whiffs.
Nick Gordon was having a great first half in AA this year as a 21 year old, but he slumped a bit in the second half. He still strikes out too much for my taste, and he doesn't possess elite speed. Still, he's a well rounded player, but a notch below guys like Rosario and fellow Twins spec Royce Lewis.
Corbin Burnes ran over high A and AA this past year, showing his pitchability and polish to the tune of a sub 2 ERA. Is he that good? Nah, his stuff isn't on par with the guys above him. But he's a good bet to be a #4 one day. He's as safe as they come.
Will Smith was the top ODC Indians spec this year. I had this great lede for him, and now I lost it because Psych dealt him. Welp. All I'll say is he's a low contact, K heavy hitter with some pop and penchant for taking walks. What makes him special is his glove, which ranks as plus as a catcher. At the very least, he'll be an solid backup for years to come at the majors. He'll start in AA next year as a 23 year old.
Brendan Mckay was hyped throughout the draft process as the number two guy to take, but he fell to 4th to the Nationals. He doesn't have the same upside as Greene, Gore, and Lewis, but he has unnatural polish as a LHP, and he showed that this year in Low A for the Rays. He'll probably be a better pitcher than hitter as a prospect tho, because he looked very bleh as a hitter this year.
Tyler O'neill struggled throughout the year in AAA, going through various hot and cold streaks, hitting bomb after bomb at times but also swinging and missing far too much. His stock is down from last year. I haven't read much about him, but one Fangraphs reader noted his profile was very similar to Randal Grichuk: Lots of power, lots of K's, a low average. I tend to agree.
Cedric Mullins was a guy I had my eye on in the rule V draft. While he doesn't possess the tools Randy Arozarena has, he has more polish and a penchant to strike out less. I think he'll find his way onto the ML roster in Bal late next year. He's not very exciting, but has a chance to at least be a 4th OF.
Jairo Solis is a guy to keep an eye on. He made his way to the Appy League last year as a 17 year old, and showed a promising frame and stuff to stick as a starter. He could shoot up this list by next year. Meanwhile, Seth Romero fell in the draft process for being a big jerk. Still, his stuff is more than capable of finding a role in the majors, although some reports came out a little nonplussed with his slider during his brief time in the Nationals Low A roster.
Bobby Dalbec and Bobby Bradley have shown huge power. Both can't seem to hit enough, and probably never will. Brandon Lowe is an O minded 2B in the rays system, and had a really impressive year as a 23 year old in the High A league. Andrew Knizner is much better hitter than his counterpart Carson Kelly, but his glove lags far behind. It might lead him to shift to 1B, but at the very least, he's blocked in STL. He might need a trade to become fantasy relevant.
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Post by Rays GM 北海道日(Will) on Dec 19, 2017 18:06:35 GMT -5
17. Houston Astros
GM: Max
2017 Record: 86-174-34
2018 Payroll:$81.90
2019 Payroll: $3.00
2020 Payroll: $0.00
Farm: Average
Picks: Below Average
Notable Batters HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SB
Greg Bird 9 28 .190 .288 .422 0
Alex Bregman 19 71 .284 .352 .475 17
Carlos Correa 24 84 .315 .391 .550 2
Notable Pitchers ERA K's/9 WHIP W SV H
Chris Archer 4.07 11.1 1.259 10 0 0
Jacob Faria 3.43 8.7 1.177 5 0 0
Ah. The 2018 ODC Houston Astros are going to be a timed experiment under immense pressure. When you have the most valuable asset in ODC (Carlos Correa), and he's a 4, people are going to expect you to win, and soon. The problem is, the Astros Roster boasts some big players (Alex Bregman, Greg Bird, Chris Archer, Jacob Faria), but it lacks anything else. Meanwhile, expected reinforcements such as Austin Meadows and Franklin Barreto had painful years, but at least Barreto showed growing pains in the majors, unlike Meadows, who flat out fell on his face in AAA. There's a lot of work to do here to flesh out the roster, but this team has potential.
The good news is, there's cap here, and lots of it. It's going to be up to Max to make the right moves in FA and hopes he can fill out the roster well enough to support his core group of players. He'll also have to contend with a resurgent Cardinals, along with the Big 3 in the NLC (Reds, Cubs, Pirates) to have a shot at competing for a title within the next 5 years.
He's going to have to do it without an elite farm, although he still has pieces here. Luis Robert and Matt Manning can get you interesting complementary pieces, but Riley Pint and Jason Groome are trending down after inconsistent and frustrating years. The Correa deal essentially wiped the farm of its best pieces, and is going to make the path to contention a little bit narrower.
One thing that has been bantered around is a signing of JD Martinez, who can give this roster a dangerous core group of hitters, but which also leaves him enough cap to sign some low cost SP's and RP's. I think it's worth a shot, but with the amount of money available this offseason, there's no guarantee he'll get him. Meanwhile, he'll have to sign SP's to back up the 1-2 duo of Archer and Faria, who really shouldn't be leading a playoff rotation. In the end, the biggest challenge is not eating up long long term cap to ensure that when Correa does become a FA, he's going to have the cap space to re-sign him.
Anyways, this is a team that arrived quicker than expected, but as of this moment, it lacks the depth to make a serious push in the NLC. After FA, this ranking might look a lot more different.
Top prospects
1.Franklin Barreto-2B
2. Luis Robert-OF
3. Austin Meadows-OF
4. Matt Manning-SP
5. Josh Hader-SP
6. Jayson Groome-SP
7. Domingo German-SP
8. Brent Rooker-OF/1B
9. Reese Mcguire-C
10. Riley Pint-SP
11. Seuly Matias-OF
12. Kevin Newman-SS
13. Hunter Harvey-SP
14. Jasrado Chisolm-SS
15. Tzu-Wei Lin - 3B
16. Dakota Chalmers-SP
17. Aaron Braco-2B
18. Stir Candelario-OF
19. Raimfer Salines-OF
This is deep farm filled with big names, but lesser pedigree.
Franklin Barreto was someone who had a mildly disappointing year, striking out nearly 30% of the time while walking less than 6% in AAA. Still, he showed some pop, swatting 15 HR's and swiping 15 bases, and he is only 21. He was overmatched in the bigs, but he still has impact tools for the SS position. He leads a resurgent Athletics hitting core.
Luis Robert was a big signing this year in ODC, and he mashed in Rookie ball (albeit at 19 years old), showing his plus speed, well rounded approach, power and strong defense in the OF. He's still projectable and thing, and he might slow down in the future. If that's the case, he can shift to RF and show off his plus arm strength there. He's a relatively safe prospect with an upside as a guy who affects all cats in fantasy.
Austin Meadows never got on track this year in AAA, and suffered multiple hamstring injuries in the process. That's a troubling medical problem, but what's more troubling was his lack of power this year, hititng only 4 HR's in nearly 300 AB's. His stock has nosedived.
Matt Manning has big raw stuff, but he had problems commanding the ball during the early spring, and had to dial it back a bit to control it better. His stuff was a little down as the year went on, but he's a plus plus athlete on the mound with still potential to develop into a #2. He got better as the year went along, and has shown a repeatable delivery. He was too much for Low A ball. Here's a video on him on the mound in September -- he's easily the tallest guy on the field.
Hader ranks ahead of Groome because he's at worst going to be an impact reliever from the left side, which should carve him a nice, MLB role for a long time. From all account, Groome this year was inconsistent, and needed better work on his control. Still, he suffered from personal troubles this year, when his dad was arrested on drug and weapon chages, which might have affected him. As it was, he did drop in the draft for makeup reasons.
German showed off dominant stuff in the minors, making his way to New York for his ML debut. While some people hold out hope for him as a starter, his fragile health and delivery makes him a near certain bullpen lock. The Yankees will start him out in ST with an inside track for a 6th inning job.
Brent Rooker mashed his way to High A this year, and i mean, he absolutely mashed. He hit 11 HRs in 140 AB's in A+, tho he did strike out a bit too much. There's whispers the Twins want to see him in the bigs by 2019. That's pretty damn ambitious, if true, but I wouldn't be surprised.
Reese Mcguire had a resurgent year in AA offensively, and his glove is good as ever. He's a good bet to be a backup catcher in Toronto. Riley Pint still has monster stuff, but doesnt know where it is going. He's a lottery ticket at this point, no more or no less. He's still only 20 years old.
Seuly Matias showed off a tantalizing blend of speed and power, but he wasn't always consistent with the bat in Rookie Ball. He's another high upside piece, and is one of the best specs in a downtrodden KC farm.
Kevin Newman is a polished SS, but he's already 24 and has never shown power or speed. His speed grades out as average, and his power is well below that. He's a good fielder tho, with a decent approach. Nice future backup.
Hunter Harvey is wrecked, health wise, so the Orioles might consider fast tracking him to the bigs as a reliever. Jasrado Chisolm has struck out too much too stick without enough power to warrant a higher spot on the list. He's only 19 tho, and he could offer a well rounded toolset one day as SS. Tzu-Wei-Lin made real changes to his swing and approach last year, hitting more fly balls and showing more power. He's suddenly a prospect again, and he can be a versatile, offensively competent utility player next year. Bracho, Candelario, and Salinas were highly sought after IFA signing this year. Bracho has a great hit tool, Candelario has power you can dream on, and Salinas has both power and speed.
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Post by Rays GM 北海道日(Will) on Dec 20, 2017 15:32:40 GMT -5
16. St. Louis Cardinals
GM: Matt 2017 Record: 81-183-30 2018 Payroll:$93.95 2019 Payroll:$42.80 2020 Payroll:$35.80 Farm: Above Average Picks: Moderate Notable Batters HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SBBryce Harper-RF 29 87 .319 .413 .595 4 Matt Olson-1B 24 45 .259 .352 .651 0 Ozzie Albies-2B 6 28 .286 .354 .456 8 Ketel Marte-SS 5 18 .260 .345 .395 3 Albert Almora-OF 8 46 .298 .338 .445 1 Tucker Barnhart-C 7 44 .270 .347 .403 4
Notable Pitchers ERA K/9 WHIP W SV HJake Arrieta-SP 3.53 8.7 1.218 14 0 0 Marcus Stroman-SP 3.09 7.3 1.308 13 0 0 Josh Tomlin-SP 4.98 7.0 1.277 10 0 0 Kyle Freeland-SP 4.10 6.2 1.487 11 0 0 Mike Minor -SP/RP 2.55 10.2 1.02 6 6 17 Carl Edwards -RP 2.98 12.75 1.01 5 0 25 Justin Wilson-RP 3.41 12.41 1.29 4 13 9 Darren O'day - RP 3.43 11.34 1.08 2 2 17 This is where the ranking gets tough. A lot of the teams within the next 5 -6 are really interchangeable. As STL plays in the NLC, they get a small bump down. Still, Matt's assembled a really solid MLB team, without giving too much of his farm, and I think STL is not getting enough credit in the loaded NLC. The lineup revolves around Bryce Harper, which really isn't the worst player to start with."Bam Bam" Bryce Harper hit a sizzling 1.008 OPS last year, albeit in an injury shortened season. He'll be joined by breakout rookie Matt Olson, who hit his way back from suspect prison after smacking 24 bombs in the second half. It wouldn't be prudent to expect him to hit that way again, but his breakout means that Matt is going to have a cost controlled, above average 1B for the next few years. That's a really nice asset. Albies had a sluggish start to Triple A last year, but he rebounded and hit well in the majors, showing a vastly improved approach and flaunting his speed and high contact ability. He'll be a fringe all star if he continues to develop normally. Meanwhile, Ketel Marte made some tangible improvements last year, by making a conscious effort to hit the ball in the air more, and his strong exit velocity readings point towards his ability to hit for more power in the future. He draws walks at a high rate, and he struck out less last year too. Along with his speed and defense, he might become an impact player at SS. Here's a more in-depth article on him.Meanwhile, guys like Albert Almora and Tucker Barnhart (perhaps the most underrated hitting catcher in baseball) will round out the offense with their high average, moderate power output. It'll be up to Matt to flesh the rest of the lineup out.
Pitching wise is a little more shaky. Jake Arrieta isn't the TOR guy anymore, but he still provides K's and a solid ERA at a reasonable price. Along with Stroman, who is a nice, solid #3 guy, albeit with less K's than you would want, there's a decent 1-2 punch up here. Guys like Kyle Freeland, who slid back to his peripherals after a hot start last year, and Josh Tomlin will fill out the back end of the rotation. An intriguing development is Mike Minor, who the Rangers signed after he had a solid year in the pen for the Royals. They plan to let him start, which would serve as much needed depth to the STL rotation. Whether he sticks, I don't know, but it's something that's really quite exciting to watch. Carl Edwards Jr, Justin Wilson, and Darren O'day lead a solid, although volatile bullpen. Edwards and Wilson both notably struggled with command last year, going through rough patches that tanked the Cubs bullpen (Wilson, especially, as he walked 19 batters in 17 innings after coming over from the Tigers.) Still, this is a bullpen that will rack up K's, so long as the command issues remain tolerable. Overall, this is a solid, underrated team that can make a push in the NLC this year and for the foreseeable future. Matt's going to need a little work to flesh out the pitching and hitting, but this is a team on the rise with a deep farm backing it. If Harper is retained for the next few years, and the younger hitters break out, the Cardinals are going to join the Cubs, Pirates, and Reds as the NLC powerhouses.
Top Prospects1. Kyle Tucker-OF 2. Ryan McMahon-3B 3. Jonathan Rodriguez-OF 4. Ronald Guzman-1B 5. Domingo Acevdeo-SP 6. Jordan Hicks-SP 7. Austin Riley-3B 8. Jake Rogers-C 9. Griffin Canning-SP 10. Jordan Sheffield-SP 11. Alex Lange-SP 12. Dane Dunning - SP 13. Grant Holmes-SP 14. Peter Lambert-SP 15. Rony Garcia-SP 16. Seth COrry-SP 17. Magneuris Sierra-OF 18. Miguel Amaya-C 19.Aramis Garcia-C 20. Edmundo Sosa-SS 21. Renato Nunez-3B Let's first all appreciate Kyle Tucker's weird, beautiful swing This swing leads to some concern among prospect evaporators, but at the end of the day, Tucker has the chance to hit for avg, power, and steal bases with his above average speed. He profiles as a guy who can hit .300 with 25 Hr's one day, which is a perennial all star player. I've been trying to get Tucker from Matt since day one, but he hasn't budged since. I don't blame him. Tucker is going to be a star, and leads a deep farm. Ryan McMahon had a strong MILB year, smashing both Double and Triple A. Still, he struggled defensively at 3B, and might need a shift to 1B in the end to accomodate Nolan Arenado in Col. He also started playing 2B last year, which increases his versatility. There are questions if he can hit ML pitching the way he's hit MILB pitching, and whether is swing is optimized for the increased velocity in the MLB. Still, playing at Coors is going to raise his fantasy value. Jonathan Rodriguez gets an aggressive ranking here because of his line drive approach, strong eye, above average speed, and chance to develop into more raw power in the future. He's exceptionally young at 18, and hit well in the rookie ball. He has a chance to be a quick riser, and a big time spec in the future. Ronald Guzman isn't really my kind of prospect -- hulking, nonathletic, walks too little, and is stuck to 1B. He'll need to hit to be in the majors, but his power and smooth swing is enticing. He's already 23, so a a move to the majors will be in short order. We'll see how he handles it. Acevedo and Hicks are similar in that they have big premium fastballs, although Acevedo has stronger secondary stuff and is more physically imposing. Still, questions about their command, delivery, and durability have led most to believer they will be relievers. If they are, their stuff will make them monstrous bullpen weapons. Riley had an interesting year, struggling at first in High A, but accelerating in AA after a strange promotion. His swing is long and slow, but he has big pop and a strong arm at third base. He's a profile I don't love, but the upside is there. Jake Rogers is an incredibly strong defensive catcher. He showed increased offensive output this year too. Aramis Garcia is in the same mold, though he's not as strong defensively as is blocked in SF by Buster Posey. Both are most likely backups in the end, but that has fantasy value. Rogers has the more offensive upside of the two. Griffin Canning is a guy who relies more on control and a well rounded arsenal than pure power. He fell in the draft because of fears of being overworked at UCLA. Alex Lange shows power stuff but sometimes erratic control, leading the Cubs to snatch him up in the first round this year as a big upside gamble. He might develop into a mid-rotation starter, but many believer he'll be a reliever. He's less polished than Dane Dunning, who was impressive at age 23 in High A. He's probably just a #4 guy in the end given his velo and brekaing pitches, but he's a nice, safe pitching prospect who should be in the majors by 2019. Grant Holmes took a major step back last year, struggling with control in AA. He's got big time power stuff, but might be suited relieving. Peter Lambert is a personal fave, who was quite excellent in High A last year. He showed plus command, along with a promising curve and change. He isn't a high velo guy now, but given his age (20) and frame, he might grow into something a more than just a #3 starter. Rony Garcia is one of the more interesting low level Yankee prospects. He's a candidate to break out next year, showing a low-mid 90's cutter with a promising curveball. He'll be 20 next year, and a candidate to go to the Yankees short season ball in Staten Island. Sierra went to the Marlins in the Ozuna deal. He's probably a better fantasy prospect than in real life, showing plus plus speed and a strong sense for stealing bases. He's simply not a good hitter tho, limiting his fantasy upside. Miguel Amaya was a highly touted IFA signing a couple years ago. He's a strong defensive cathcer, and held his as an 18 year old in Low A ball last year. He's a sleeper to keep an eye on.
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Post by Rays GM 北海道日(Will) on Dec 23, 2017 15:36:09 GMT -5
15. Atlanta Braves
GM: Wood
2017 Record: 156-112-26
2018 Payroll: $93.20
2019 Payroll: $88.30
2020 Payroll: $62.00
Farm: Above Average
Picks: Moderate
Notable Batters HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SB
Trey Mancini 24 78 .293 .338 .488 1
Paul Dejong 25 65 .285 .325 .532 1
Harrison Bader 3 10 .235 .283 .376 2
A. Beintendi 20 90 .271 .352 .424 20
Jason Kipnis 12 35 .232 .291 .414 6
Yonder Alonso 28 67 .266 .365 .501 2
R. Zimmerman 36 108 .303 .358 .573 1
L. Chisenhall 12 53 .288 .360 .521 2
Matt Kemp 19 64 .276 .318 .463 0
C. Granderson 26 64 .212 .323 .452 6
Notable Pitchers ERA K/9 WHIP W SV H
J. Samardzjia 4.42 8.9 1.136 9 0 0
Lance Lynn 3.43 7.4 1.229 11 0 0
Zach Britton 2.89 6.99 1.53 2 15 0
I think putting Atlanta at 15 is a symbolic ranking. It's a team in the midst of a transformation from a rebuilding team to one that surprisingly stole the NL east crown last year, earning Wood a well deserved GM of the year. Placing it in the middle of the rankings just shows how far the team has come, and its potential to grow even further in the near future.
The offense on the team last year was defined by surprising breakouts and dissapointing campaings. On the positive side, hitters like Ryan Zimmermanm, Yonder Alonso, and Lonnie Chisenhall recaptured their prior hype to deliver solid, all aorund seasons. Meanwhile, surprise rookies such as Trey Mancini and Paul Dejong had powerful, albeit strikeout heavy, rookie seasons. They'll be joined next year by Harrison Bader, who fits a similar profile. Whether their seasons were sustainable or not, the 2018 Braves are going to hit HR's and strike out like there's no tomorrow.
On the flip side, Wood is going to hope for more production from Andrew Beintendi and Jason Kipnis, who had "down" years. Beintendi didn't hit for as much power as you would want from a LF, while Kipnis slumped to a career worst BA. Beni has the better chance of rebounding, given his profile, age, and well rounded ability. Kipnis is at the age where 2B's suffer some decline.
The pitching side is a much weaker, and suffered a crushing blow when Zach Britton tore his achilles a few days ago. Lance Lynn will provide quality starts, and Jeff Samardsija will provide K's, but not much else. This is a team that is going to need something to click on the pitching side, because reinforcements are not on the way in the minors, and there isn't much cash for this or next year year.
However, given the hitting studs along the way in the minors, and the young age of the core, the hitting side of this team should be set for the next half decade. This is the rare team that just won its division, and still has room to grow.
Top Prospects:
1. Fernando Tatis Jr- SS
2. Nick Senzel-3B
3. Eloy Jimenez-OF
4. Ian Anderson-SP
5. Joey Wentz-SP
7. James Nelson-3B
8. Jacob Nix-SP
9. Jacob Heatherly-SP
10. Francisco Morales-SP
11. Sean Murphy-C
12. Jacob Gonzalez-3B
13.Mike Shawaryn-SP/RP
14. Cody Ponce-SP
15. Austin Allen - C
16. Zac Gallen-SP
This is a top heavy farm. But ohhhh, what a top. There are 3 potential superstars waiting for Wood, and they're closer than you might think.
Tatis has the potential to be a generational player. If it all clicks, he'll be the face of the Padres for the next decade. He's got plus power (and maybe more), and swiped 29 bases last year in Single A (tho his speed is more average than plus). He's got a rocket of an arm, and has a good chance to be a strong defender at SS. He need to cut on his strikeouts, but he walks a lot too. He's only 18, and might see the majors before 20.
Nick Senzel had a strong year at A+ and AA, and showed his natural ability to hit for average, power, and steal bases. He doesn't strike out much, and with more work, he can become a very strong defender at 3B. I'm not sure if he has any holes in his profile.
Eloy Jimenez has the chance for plus plus power. And I might be holding back on him.
He won't offer much in the way of speed, but has a cannon of an arm that makes him a fit for RF. He's only 21, and isn't quite ML ready. Making more consistent contact and lowering his K's will be key to him reaching his potential.
Wood might actually own 3 of baseball's top 10 prospects. That's insane.
Next, will be a duo of Atlanta pitchers. Ian Anderson might turn to be a frontline starter, but is a ways away. His stuff, command, and frame all are strong points in his favor. Wentz profiles as #3 guy, but his power fastball from the left led to a lot of K's last year in single A. He just turned 20.
James Nelson is already a very solid prospect who I regret not taking in the rule V. He's got a high contact ability, some power, a strong glove at 3rd, and strong phsyical tools. He's a top 10 guy in the Marlins farm. He'll rank above Zac Gallen, who's ML ready, but is more pitchabiltiy over power.
Francisco Morales is the opposite. He's big, got raw power, but is more of a lottery ticket than anything at this point.
*Edit*
After a bit more research and nudging from Justin, I've added Cody Ponce and Mike Shawaryn on here. I glossed over Ponce at first because his numbers weren't great this year, and Shawaryn always struck me as a reliever type in the Sox farm. Still, both have a chance to profile as #4 guys, and that has value. Meanwhile, I just completely missed Sean Murphy and Jacob Nix. Murphy is a power hitting, albeit strikeout heavy catcher in the A's farm who's got a strong arm to stick at catcher. I really like him. Jacob Nix was the famous prospect who lost his signing bonus in the Mark Appel signing fiasco with Houston. He's in SD now, and has a big frame that allows him to throw a power fastball along with developing breaking pitches.
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Post by Rays GM 北海道日(Will) on Dec 26, 2017 19:51:51 GMT -5
14. Tampa Bay Rays
GM: Forbz
2017 Record: 172-108-14
2018 Payroll: 108.05
2019 Payroll: $73.35
2020 Payroll: $37.50
Farm: Weak
Picks: Few
Notable Batters HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SB
Francisco Cervelli-C 5 31 .249 .342 .370 0
Lucas Duda-1B 30 64 .217 .322 .496 0
Starlin Casto-2B 16 63 .300 .338 .454 2
Jose Peraza-2B/SS 5 37 .259 .297 .324 23
Javier Baez-SS 23 75 .273 .317 .480 10
Evan Longoria-3B 20 86 .261 .313 .424 6
Joc Pederson-LF 11 35 .212 .331 .407 4
Corey Dickerson-LF 26 62 .282 .325 .490 4
Brian Goodwin-LF/CF 13 30 .251 .313 .498 6
Avisail Garcia-RF 18 80 .330 .380 .506 5
Yasmany Tomas-LF 8 32 .241 .294 .464 0
Notable Pitchers ERA K/9 WHIP W SV H
Madison Bumgarner-SP 3.32 8.2 1.09 4 0 0
Sonny Gray-SP 3.55 8.5 1.20 10 0 0
German Marquez-SP 4.39 8.2 1.37 11 0 0
Carlos Rodon-SP 4.15 9.9 1.3 2 0 0
Patrick Corbin-SP 4.03 8.4 1.42 12 0 0
Julio Teheran-SP 4.49 7.2 1.37 11 0 0
The Tampa Bay Rays will open up the 2018 season as a favorite to snag one of the AL WC's, and make a surprise challenge to the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East. The starting pitching here has a chance to be the strongest in the AL, with Madison Bumgarner, Carlos Rodon, Sonny Gray, Julio Teheran, Patrick Corbin and German Marquez fronting a dynamic rotation. True, there are some injury concerns given Rodon's, Corbin's and Gray's past (and Bumgarner and Rodon will be coming back from majors injuries themselves) but the upside here is terrific. Stuff wise, the rotation is dynamic, and can rack up K's. Another plus is Marquez, Teheran, Gray, and Rodon all have substantial control.
The lineup is a bit more iffy, but has the potential to surprise some people. Javier Baez remains one of my favorite players in baseball, who's prodigious physical tools point to more growth in the future; he just turned 25, and is now entering the prime of his career. Meanwhile, Starlin Castro had an excellent year with the Yankees, and seemed to have matured a lot from his CHC days. He'll be backed up by former top prospect Jose Peraza, who's speed and contact profile has been brought down by a total lack of power and plate discipline. Still, the potential is there.
Meanwhile, Evan Longoria will look to bounce back from an okay 2017 to recapture his 2016 numbers, as his power numbers continued to show a mid career decline that was unexpected back in 2010. I think Longo will have a good chance to bounce back, but moving to SF's big park won't help. Also, here's your mind blowing fact of the day: Evan Longoria has never had a OPS above .900 in any season during his career. That's amazing.
Joc Pederson is too damn talented to have the numbers he has. I'm predicting a solid bounce back year, but he's probably confined to a lower BA, high power profile for the rest of his career. Corey Dickerson and Avisail Garcia will continue to provide solid numbers across the board as corner OF's, tho Garcia is going to have to show his breakout year wasn't a fluke. Brian Goodwin is a sneaky good OF, who provides moderate speed with above average power numbers. Still, Mr. Robles is coming to town, so he might see less playing time.
The bullpen will look for reinforcements in FA and trade, but Tyler Thornburg is the big name here. He was terrific in MIL, before getting hurt last year in Bos. As a Red Sox fan, I think (hope) he'll rebound. He'll be a big holds guy if he does.
Overall, this is a team that's going to count on bounce back campaigns and growth from younger players, while holding onto (maybe?) the best rotation in the AL. I think the Rays snag one of the of the WC's this year, and make noise in the playoffs. The $50 question is if they can challenge the Orioles for the division crown.
Top Prospects:
1.Leonel Campos
2. Wilking Rodriguez
Oy. Leonel Campos has potential as a middle innings reliever, showing strikeout ability for the padres this year. Still, his walk rate has always plagued him, and its limits his fantasy upside. Wilking Rodriguez played in Venezuela this year, which really isn't the safest place to be.
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Post by Rays GM 北海道日(Will) on Dec 27, 2017 17:24:50 GMT -5
13. Arizona Diamondbacks
GM: Hemmons
2017 Record: 154-119-21
2018 Payroll: $105.25
2019 Payroll: $37.90
2020 Payroll: $20.30
Farm: Average
Picks: Moderate
Notable Batters HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SB
Blake Swihart-C 0 0 .200 .429 .200 0
Eric Thames- 1B 31 63 .247 .359 .518 4
Tim Beckham- SS 22 62 .278 .328 .454 6
Anthony Rendon-3B 25 100 .301 .403 .533 7
Mitch Haniger-OF 16 47 .282 .352 .491 5
Derek Fisher-OF 5 17 .212 .307 .356 3
K. Kiermaier-CF 15 39 .276 .338 .450 16
A. McCutchen-OF 28 88 .279 .363 .486 11
Ryan Braun-OF 17 52 .268 .336 .487 12
David Peralta-OF/3B 14 57 .293 .352 .444 8
Notable Pitchers ERA K/9 WHIP W SV H
Jacob Degrom-SP 3.53 10.7 1.187 15 0 0
Andrew Heaney-SP 7.06 11.2 1.662 1 0 0
Ervin Santana -SP 3.28 7.1 1.126 16 0 0
Jameson Taillon-SP 4.44 8.4 1.481 8 0 0
Dellin Betances-CP 2.87 15.1 1.223 3 0 0
The Dbacks came close to the the second WC last year, and they'll be be in a strong position to improve on that standing this year. It's a strange roster, filled with late career breakout, declining stars, and undervalued position players, to go along with a perplexing top prospect waiting in the minors.
Also, there's a lot of cash here. This is a team in flux with lots of potential (and lots of competition in the NL West)
There's probably no bigger enigma on the team than Blake Swihart. The former top prospect has never fully recovered from his ankle injury in his initial debut season, and has has problem with throwing the ball as a catcher last year. Injuries have sapped his confidence, but the hope is that with an offseason to recover, he might reclaim his spot as a catcher on the Red Sox roster. He might be moved around for flexibility, but he has more value as a catcher than anywhere else. Another top prospect who's had his career derailed by injuries is Andrew Heaney, who's coming back from TJ surgery. He was a little erratic this year, leading to a bloated ERA, but rust from major surgery is common among pitchers. He'll be a good depth option for the pitching staff, and is a nice back end pitcher.
Then there's the late career breakout players on this team. 5 years ago, Eric Thames was hitting like a backup utility IF. Last year, even after dealing with illness and a midseason slump, he finished with an OPS just shy of .900. A stint in South Korea saved his career, and at the age of 30, he just might be entering the prime of his career. Meanwhile, Tim Beckham broke out in BAL after a midseason trade from TB, swatting 10 Hr's after the all star break. It probably isn't entirely sustainable given his strikeout rates and career line before this, but the guy who was widely mocked as the player taken before Buster Posey in the 2008 draft has a chance to be one of the best players from that draft. No seriously........it was a pretty awful draft.
Mitch Haniger was a guy Fangraphs predicted to break out last year, and lo and behold, he did! Before getting injured, he was one of the more promising bats in the OF pool. If he can stay healthy this year, he can become a core part of this lineup. He'll need to cut down on his K's to build a more sustainable profile tho. He'll be joined by Anthony Rendon, who, when healthy, is a lethal bat at the hot corner, and the slightly diminished Andrew McCutchen, who had a bounceback year of sorts. Still, his contract makes him a good bet to be dealt by the Pirates, who've declined the past couple of years. David Peralta had a solid 2017, that, while didn't replicate his first two terrific years in the majors, showed his flexibility. He'll be valuable for that reasons for fantasy purposes. Derek Fisher is a breakout candidate in my eyes. He's got plus power and plus speed, and in that astros lineup, he'll score a ton of runs if he finds a playing spot. His swing and miss issues are the biggest reason to believe he won't reach his 20-20 ceiling, however.
Oh, and there's Ryan Braun. I kind of forgot he existed. He actually had a good year last year! It's just too bad he looks and acts like a humorless super villain.
On the pitching side, its get a bit thinner. Jacob Degrom is the ace here. He's been rock solid for the past few years, but he's a Mets pitcher. At some point, you know he's going to get injured. That pitching staff is baseball's answer to Murphy's Law.
On a serious note, Ervin Santana was an all star last year, and he pitched pretty well all the way last year until the the AL WC game, where the Yankees finally started like the Yankees, and the Twins started playing like the Twins. He's a flyball heavy pitcher, but that's perfect in the Twins ballpark. I think he'll have another solid year.
Jameson Taillon has big stuff, but needs further refining to pitching better than his so-so numbers last year. He's a breakout candidate too. Dan Straily is a another guy with plenty of strikeouts, and now that he's pitching with the Marlins, his grasp on a pitching rotation is as strong as ever. He'll thrive in the NL. Homer Bailey should donate his contract to charity. Kris Medlen just makes me sad. There's been so many great Braves pitchers ruined by injuries these past years.
Dellin Betances really struggled with throwing strikes last year, and he lost the confidence of Joe Girardi as the year went on. He's on the trading block for the Yankees, and he'll get a nice return. For Fantasy purposes, he's no longer a closer guy until he gets dealt or finds his groove back.
Still, there's a lot of promise and former glory in this roster. This is a strong team that should make a push in the NL West, but the challenge it dethroning the Giants and fighting past a resurgent Padres and Dodgers team. This should be a fun season in that division, and its going to be interesting to see, with a lot of cash left, how Hemmons maneuvers the volatile NL West.
Top Prospects
1. JP Crawford-SS
2. Alex Faedo-SP
3. AJ Puk-SP
4. David Paulino-SP
5. Sam McMillan-C
6. Frankyln Kilome - SP
7. Jean Carlos Carmona-SS
8. Mickey Moniak-CF
9. Yeudy Garcia-SP
10. Kodi Medeiroas-SP
11. Isiah Gilliam-1B
12. Dawel Lugo-3B
I confess. I thought JP Crawford was toast. His profile always rested on strong defense over hitting, and when he stopped hitting through the first half of last year in AAA, I came to the conclusion he was overvalued and a glove first guy at best, which kinda wrecked his fantasy value. He was hitting .194 in AAA as late as June 20th, with a slugging around the mid .200s. Then, after taking a few days off, he exploded. He showed lightning in his bat the second half of the year, and brought his AVG and SLG to .243 and .405, respectively, by the end of the year.
I dunno. Maybe that was a flash in the pan. But if he holds it, he's an impact player. He can show moderate power, a good average, with an excellent eye and solid speed. He can turn into the rare SS who affects all categories in fantasy. That's a really nice player.
Alex Faedo dropped in the draft due to concerns about diminished fastball velocity and knee injuries. But he was owning fools in the CWS, and his plus slider and solid control gives him a good chance to be a #3 guy one day. There's relieve risk, I guess, if his 3rd pitch never comes around and his pitching motion shortchanges his stuff. Ehh. He was just really good against the best amateur competition.
AJ Puk has improved his control, and his stuff is monstrous. He needs more refinement tho. There's a strong chance he cant stick as a starter in the majors, but the upside is very high. Classic Lefty with big stuff, long arms, and loose mechanics.
David Paulino had a lost year due to PED's. When he's on, he's a big guy with power stuff and surpising control. I guess the question is how much was that organic, and not synthetic.
Sam McMillan is a catcher I'm really excited about. He showed a terrific eye in debut, and his strong def skills and pop makes him an interesting prospect to keep an eye on. He was a steal in the 5th round.
Kilome is part of that Phillies pitching crop that includes Sixto, Adonis, Seranthony, (and others who I'll raid in the rule V). He's got a big fastball, a big frame, and developing curves and changes. He's pretty risky for a guy in AA, but this kind of raw talent is hard to find.
Jean Carlos Carmona is the weird rookie ball spec I love to fall in love with. He's toolsy, and a has a good chance to stay at SS. There's some swing and miss there, but I dig this guy a lot. He's a big sleeper.
I'm not on the Moniak hype train. He didn't hit well last year, and it's not like he has tools to carry him. He's going to need to hit to make it to the majors, and I'm not sure if can do better than a 4th OF.
Yeudy Garcia and Kodi Medeiros are guys with big stuff, poor control, and promising futures in the pen. Isiah Gilliam had a breakout year in the Yankees farm after making some adjustments. He's a guy to watch.
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Post by Rays GM 北海道日(Will) on Dec 27, 2017 21:04:42 GMT -5
12. Texas Rangers
GM: Bill
2017 Record: 172-98-24
2018 Payroll: $106.20
2019 Payroll: $94.70
2020 Payroll: $49.40
Farm: Below Average
Picks: Moderate
Notable Batters HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SB
Yan Gomes-C 14 56 .232 .309 .399 0
Brandon Belt-1B 18 51 .241 .355 .469 3
Dustin Pedroia-2B 7 62 .293 .369 .392 4
Jean Segura-SS 11 45 .300 .349 .427 22
Addison Russell-SS 12 43 .239 .304 .418 2
Dexter Fowler-OF 18 64 .264 .363 .488 7
Austin Jackson-OF 7 35 .318 .387 .482 3
Matt Joyce-OF 25 68 .243 .335 .473 4
Aaron Altherr-OF 19 65 .272 .340 .516 5
Notable Pitchers ERA K/9 WHIP W SV H
Rick Porcello-SP 4.65 8.0 1.397 11 0 0
Ian Kennedy-SP 5.38 7.7 1.325 5 0 0
Jimmy Nelson-SP 3.49 10.2 1.249 12 0 0
Carlos Carrasco-SP 3.29 10.2 1.095 18 0 0
Felipe Rivero-RP 1.67 10.5 .0889 5 21 14
Shane Greene-RP 2.66 9.7 1.241 4 9 14
The Texas Rangers and the Seattle Mariners will open up the 2018 season as the strong co-favorites for the AL West crowns (tho Oakland will have a better chance than most think at pulling an upset). Still, I think Texas lags behind in the department, given Seattle's newly fortified pitching and the loss of Jimmy Nelson for the early part of 2018 will hinder the team's pitching.
This is a deep roster, but without an franchise player to hinge the team on. I suppose Brandon Belt has the closest in terms of name value, but he hit .240 last year. Plus, he's never reached 20 Hr's in a season, which isn't good for a 1B. In fact, the best player here on the offensive side is the guy who was born in Landstuhl, Germany: Aaron Altherr. After recovering from a injury plagued 2016 season, Altherr was outstanding in 2017, securing himself a spot in the Phillies lineup. He's got pop, a solid hit tool, and eye, while showing good def in the OF. By WAR, he's the third best player from Germany (I think first would be Edwin Jackson, and second would be Max Kepler).
Altherr will be joined in the OF by a mishmash of solid, underrated players with unique skillsets. Matt Joyce can only do two things: hit bombs and get on base (which makes him a terrific Oakland A's player). But he does it well, and his value holds. Dexter Fowler also gets on base and hits for power, but he'll swipe some bases now and then. He's Mr. Consistency. On the other hand, Austin Jackson's career has had a run of highs and lows, but he bounced back last year, hitting for a high average and surprising pop for a CF. We'll see if he recreates that again. Alex Gordon looks done as an MLB player.
Jean Segura is also another terrific player, showing speed, patience, and surprising pop for a SS. He'll lead the Texas IF. His contract is a bit onerous (6 years, 80 million), especially for a middle IF, but the AAV is fair, and so long as he produces, this shouldn't be a problem. Addison Russell has been a major disappointment on many levels, and it's fair to ask, in light of his new domestic problems, if his head is in the game. The tools are there, the MILB track record is there, but his propensity to swing and miss has cratered his career. If he perks up, he can help cover for the injured Dustin Pedroia.
There's more star level talent on the pitching side here. Jimmy Nelson was having a terrific breakout year until he got injured, and he'll be out for the early portion of the season (and probably most of it). He's the ace here, and in his place Carlos Carrasco will have to step in. If Nelson was healthy, there's no better 1-2 punch in the AL West than these two. They'll flash *dynamic* stuff with plenty of K's, making them fantasy assets. As it is, Seattle's rotation slides to the front with the Nelson injury.
Now comes the bad news. Rick Porcello went from Cy Young to *eh* starter last year, which seems pretty appropriate given his career inconsistencies. As a Sox fan, I want to love him, but he's far too hittable to be trusted upon in Fenway. This leaves the pitching staff in an incredibly vulnerable situation.
Ian Kennedy gave up 2 Hrs/9 last year. That's....wow. That's not good.
There's much more promise in the bullpen. Shane Greene bounced back after two lost years in Detroit to become a solid reliever who's perhaps their best closing option they have. Along with world eater Felipe Rivero, this is a strong 1-2 bullpen punch here, perhaps the strongest in the AL West.
Overall, this is a team that's run into some back luck and unfortunate financials. The Nelson injury hurt a lot, but the lack of cash flexibility and immediate MILB talent hurts too. Still, this is a pretty deep team that won 172 games last year, so if things hold, this is a WC contender. And given how thin the AL west is, if SEA slip up this year, look for the Rangers to scoop up the crown. In the near future, there isn't a juggernaut team waiting in the AL West, so the path to contention for Tex is pretty clear: Pray for better health, win the division, and let the madness of the ODC playoffs do its work.
Top Prospects
1. Franklin Perez-SP
2. David Peterson-SP
3. Tristan Pomepy-OF
4. Ramon Laureano-OF
5. Bryan Reynolds-OF
6. Garret Stubbs-C
7. Luiz Alamanzar-SS
8. Matt Whatley-C
9. Kevin Vicuna-SS
10. Roberto Chirinos-SS
Holy Crap. I know I have Franklin Perez ranked first here, but I want to start off with Tristan Pompey. I didn't realize Bill owned him until I doubled checked but yup! That's him. He's the younger brother of Dalton Pompey, and he currently plays for Kentucky. He projects to have power, a good hit tool, plus speed, and (maybe?) has a chance to be a CF. He's first round talent. Damn, I wanted him.
Anyways, aside from the Angels monster farm, the best prospect in the AL West might just be Franklin Perez. He's projectable, though he's filling out quickly, and very young at 20 despite reaching AA already (And pitching well there). He sits at the mid 90's, and he could grow into more power. He has a chance for two plus breaking pitches in his curve and change, and has an avg slider too. He's athletic, and got easy control. He's a beast, and one of my faves.
Besides, those two, there aren't many star level talents left. Luiz Almanazar is probably the closest guy here, showing some power, tools and strong def chops to stay at SS. He's far away (he was subpar in A- this year, albeit at 17), but the Padres will push him hard. He received 4 million in IFA money, which is indicative of his reputation throughout the league.
David Peterson is a control over stuff guy, with a good FB, strong slider, and relatively innocuous secondary breaking balls. But he's a pitcher's pitcher, and he might move fast. The Mets took him in the 1st round this year.
Ramon Laureano has speed, but he was demolished in AA this year for his age 22 season. He's got some pop tho, and guys like that will always get chances.
Bryan Reynolds is a big guy (6'3" , 200 lbs), but he isn't a big power hitting OF. He's more well rounded than toolsy, and hit very well in high A this year. He's a moderate ceiling, fair risk prospect.
Roberto Chirinos was a well regared IFA this year, who's more glove over offensive potential. He got 900K from the Yankees.
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