Post by Bravos James on Feb 16, 2018 16:46:40 GMT -5
Not the best, just the most important. An X-Factor of sorts.
Baltimore Orioles: Position Player: RF Hunter Pence. The lineup is great, we've heard it 100 times from Jeff, it's better than yours WITHOUT Votto and Altuve, and he has Votto and Altuve, there's established contributors with known playing time at each position except for this one. With the trade market in here reaching a screeching halt of late, the market for a startable RF is pretty much Jason Heyward. Pence is coming off the worst season of his career with career lows at OBP, OPS, and SB. The Giants OF is a bit of a ? beyond Andrew Mccutchen, with Austin Jackson likely being the starting CF when the season starts, and Mccutchen likely to start in RF, LF is the only opening and Pence has 0 career appearances there. Is it an impossible transition from RF to LF? No, but with Jarrod Dyson and Carlos Gonzalez being rumored options for the Giants OF, Pence's best asset, playing a ton of games and accumulating stats, may be in jeopardy.
Pitcher: SP Danny Salazar. Danny Salazar is a player that in his career has more name value than actual value, entering his 6th service year, he's a pitcher who's thrown more than 138 innings once and hasn't really improved in anything since his 2015 breakout. The Indians rotation is crowded, with Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevenger, Trevor Bauer, and Josh Tomlin all likely to get SP chances, Salazar could see himself on the outside looking in as he did last season (4 bullpen appearances in 2017). The upside is certainly there with a guy with as much K potential as Salazar (12.7 K/9 in 2017), but if control continues to be an issue Salazar could see himself back in the bullpen.
Boston Red Sox: Position Player: 1B Max Muncy. This is tough, because Will has guys that should contribute to his lineup this year, (Acuna, Mejia) but 2018 lineup contribution doesn't do anything for a rebuilding team. Max Muncy is entering 2018 in a last chance situation, a Dodgers Non roster invite coming off his best season in the minors (.905 OPS 12 HR 54-84 BB/K) in the hitter friendly PCL. If he can make an impact in spring and enter the season as a utility player for the Dodgers and gain enough value to be flipped for some more prospects or draft picks is the way a 2018 lineup piece can become useful to Will's team.
Pitcher: RP Oliver Drake. Pretty similar to what I said above. If Drake gains any value his importance will be in the prospects or picks he brings back to Will's farm. Drake's an interesting Reliever, he's consistently been a solid strikeouts guy (100 in 89.2 IP), but the 1.46 WHIP and 4.1 BB/9 have limited him from being a late innings option. If he can improve upon his 6 holds from last season he could be an interesting add for a team looking for bullpen help.
New York Yankees: Position Player: 3B Matt Chapman. Travis Shaw was Justins big breakout 3B last season, but Matt Chapman was very interesting also. In the middle of an interesting Oakland lineup, Chapman possesses 30-35 HR potential, in 84 MLB games last season Chapman hit 14 HR with a .785 OPS. Strikeouts are Chapmans biggest flaw as his batting average ceiling will be capped if he can't improve upon his .28% K rate, which is around where it was in the minors. Chapman, entering his age 25 season, has a .250/.350/.500 35 HR 85 R/RBI potential, but the floor is similar to Maikel Franco's 2016 season. If he develops quickly he could be the main power source for one of the more underrated lineups in the AL.
Pitcher: SP Blake Snell. Similar to Justins lineup, Justins SP breakout last season was Luis Castillo, but a SP with a higher upside had an under the radar second half to the 2017 season. In the first half of last season, the former top prospect continued his struggles with control, an 0-5 record with a 1.635 WHIP with 34 BB in 52 IP made Snell look like one of the more disappointing young pitchers in baseball, but after making an adjustment to where he stands on the mound, Snell had the 2nd half that most expected he'd have when he was originally called up, a 3.49 ERA and 8.6 K/9 may not scream out huge improvement, but the K/BB ratio jumped too 2.96 compared to 1.32 pre adjustment. and the whip fell from 1.635 to 1.125 in the second half. A power lefty with 4 plus pitches, (Hot Take Alert) Snell could be the most fantasy relevant Rays SP. However that could all be correlation instead of causation and he could easily return to being the 5 ERA 1.5 WHIP player he was pre-adjustment.
Tampa Bay Rays: Position Player: 1B Greg Bird. Greg Bird probably has the most amount of possible outcomes possible on a lineup full of high upside low ceiling players (EX: Jose Peraza, Joc Pederson, Maikel Franco). The main piece back in the Madison Bumgarner trade, Bird has the upside of being a top 5 1B in fantasy. Once regarded as the best prospect in a farm consisting of Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge, Bird had the beginning of a breakout in 2015 (46 games 11 HR .871 OPS), but then missed all of 2016 with a right shoulder injury, then after a huge spring training that lifted him too unreachable expectations, he played the first month of the season with an ankle injury, then missed 4 months with the aforementioned ankle injury, he came back in September and looked a bit like the breakout candidate everyone thought he'd be. I do think the power potential may be a bit overstated for a 25 year old who hasn't ever hit more than 20 HRs in a season, but with the chance to be the 5 hitter in a loaded Yankee lineup the run/rbi production could be massive.
Pitcher: SP Sonny Gray. The rotation and bullpen aren't great IN MY OPINION. Duffy, Harvey, Rodon all have solid upside, but extremely low floors, Gray needs to pitch like an ace for this rotation to compete in the AL East. After moving from a pitchers park in Oakland to Yankee Stadium the HR rate doubled, but an unlucky HR/FB rate could be a huge factor in that. The win potential is also big with one of the best lineups in baseball behind him, but he's always kinda needed great infield play because of the amount of weak contact he surrenders.
Toronto Blue Jays: Position Player: 3B Rafael Devers. This is a really weird lineup, there's no one I'm confident will be above average at their position with the exception of Devers. It's filled with solid pieces like Odubel Herrera, Gerardo Parra, Robinson Chirinos, Kolten Wong etc. All those guys should be fine, but the lineup lacks a huge contributor. Devers burst onto the scene last season with an .284/.338/.482 slash line with 10 HR and 3 SB in 58 games. The big concern was how he'd perform against lefties, but he was shockingly effective with a .400/.474/.600 slashline with 2 HR in his small sample of 57 PA's against lefties. If he can be productive against lefties and play everyday he should be a top 12 third basemen, however that could be a lot to ask of a 21 year old preparing to play his first full season.
Pitcher: SP/DH(?) Shohei Otani I mean he might be the biggest X-factor in baseball this season. His ceiling innings wise is probably 140 IP, but if he's a productive UTIL 3 days a week to go along with 140 IP at a 3.3-ish ERA that's an extremely useful player. I was going to put Zach Godley here, but post humidor for a guy who was top 10 in both swinging strike rate and groundball rate, he projects as a top 12-ish SP with a great lineup behind him.
Baltimore Orioles: Position Player: RF Hunter Pence. The lineup is great, we've heard it 100 times from Jeff, it's better than yours WITHOUT Votto and Altuve, and he has Votto and Altuve, there's established contributors with known playing time at each position except for this one. With the trade market in here reaching a screeching halt of late, the market for a startable RF is pretty much Jason Heyward. Pence is coming off the worst season of his career with career lows at OBP, OPS, and SB. The Giants OF is a bit of a ? beyond Andrew Mccutchen, with Austin Jackson likely being the starting CF when the season starts, and Mccutchen likely to start in RF, LF is the only opening and Pence has 0 career appearances there. Is it an impossible transition from RF to LF? No, but with Jarrod Dyson and Carlos Gonzalez being rumored options for the Giants OF, Pence's best asset, playing a ton of games and accumulating stats, may be in jeopardy.
Pitcher: SP Danny Salazar. Danny Salazar is a player that in his career has more name value than actual value, entering his 6th service year, he's a pitcher who's thrown more than 138 innings once and hasn't really improved in anything since his 2015 breakout. The Indians rotation is crowded, with Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevenger, Trevor Bauer, and Josh Tomlin all likely to get SP chances, Salazar could see himself on the outside looking in as he did last season (4 bullpen appearances in 2017). The upside is certainly there with a guy with as much K potential as Salazar (12.7 K/9 in 2017), but if control continues to be an issue Salazar could see himself back in the bullpen.
Boston Red Sox: Position Player: 1B Max Muncy. This is tough, because Will has guys that should contribute to his lineup this year, (Acuna, Mejia) but 2018 lineup contribution doesn't do anything for a rebuilding team. Max Muncy is entering 2018 in a last chance situation, a Dodgers Non roster invite coming off his best season in the minors (.905 OPS 12 HR 54-84 BB/K) in the hitter friendly PCL. If he can make an impact in spring and enter the season as a utility player for the Dodgers and gain enough value to be flipped for some more prospects or draft picks is the way a 2018 lineup piece can become useful to Will's team.
Pitcher: RP Oliver Drake. Pretty similar to what I said above. If Drake gains any value his importance will be in the prospects or picks he brings back to Will's farm. Drake's an interesting Reliever, he's consistently been a solid strikeouts guy (100 in 89.2 IP), but the 1.46 WHIP and 4.1 BB/9 have limited him from being a late innings option. If he can improve upon his 6 holds from last season he could be an interesting add for a team looking for bullpen help.
New York Yankees: Position Player: 3B Matt Chapman. Travis Shaw was Justins big breakout 3B last season, but Matt Chapman was very interesting also. In the middle of an interesting Oakland lineup, Chapman possesses 30-35 HR potential, in 84 MLB games last season Chapman hit 14 HR with a .785 OPS. Strikeouts are Chapmans biggest flaw as his batting average ceiling will be capped if he can't improve upon his .28% K rate, which is around where it was in the minors. Chapman, entering his age 25 season, has a .250/.350/.500 35 HR 85 R/RBI potential, but the floor is similar to Maikel Franco's 2016 season. If he develops quickly he could be the main power source for one of the more underrated lineups in the AL.
Pitcher: SP Blake Snell. Similar to Justins lineup, Justins SP breakout last season was Luis Castillo, but a SP with a higher upside had an under the radar second half to the 2017 season. In the first half of last season, the former top prospect continued his struggles with control, an 0-5 record with a 1.635 WHIP with 34 BB in 52 IP made Snell look like one of the more disappointing young pitchers in baseball, but after making an adjustment to where he stands on the mound, Snell had the 2nd half that most expected he'd have when he was originally called up, a 3.49 ERA and 8.6 K/9 may not scream out huge improvement, but the K/BB ratio jumped too 2.96 compared to 1.32 pre adjustment. and the whip fell from 1.635 to 1.125 in the second half. A power lefty with 4 plus pitches, (Hot Take Alert) Snell could be the most fantasy relevant Rays SP. However that could all be correlation instead of causation and he could easily return to being the 5 ERA 1.5 WHIP player he was pre-adjustment.
Tampa Bay Rays: Position Player: 1B Greg Bird. Greg Bird probably has the most amount of possible outcomes possible on a lineup full of high upside low ceiling players (EX: Jose Peraza, Joc Pederson, Maikel Franco). The main piece back in the Madison Bumgarner trade, Bird has the upside of being a top 5 1B in fantasy. Once regarded as the best prospect in a farm consisting of Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge, Bird had the beginning of a breakout in 2015 (46 games 11 HR .871 OPS), but then missed all of 2016 with a right shoulder injury, then after a huge spring training that lifted him too unreachable expectations, he played the first month of the season with an ankle injury, then missed 4 months with the aforementioned ankle injury, he came back in September and looked a bit like the breakout candidate everyone thought he'd be. I do think the power potential may be a bit overstated for a 25 year old who hasn't ever hit more than 20 HRs in a season, but with the chance to be the 5 hitter in a loaded Yankee lineup the run/rbi production could be massive.
Pitcher: SP Sonny Gray. The rotation and bullpen aren't great IN MY OPINION. Duffy, Harvey, Rodon all have solid upside, but extremely low floors, Gray needs to pitch like an ace for this rotation to compete in the AL East. After moving from a pitchers park in Oakland to Yankee Stadium the HR rate doubled, but an unlucky HR/FB rate could be a huge factor in that. The win potential is also big with one of the best lineups in baseball behind him, but he's always kinda needed great infield play because of the amount of weak contact he surrenders.
Toronto Blue Jays: Position Player: 3B Rafael Devers. This is a really weird lineup, there's no one I'm confident will be above average at their position with the exception of Devers. It's filled with solid pieces like Odubel Herrera, Gerardo Parra, Robinson Chirinos, Kolten Wong etc. All those guys should be fine, but the lineup lacks a huge contributor. Devers burst onto the scene last season with an .284/.338/.482 slash line with 10 HR and 3 SB in 58 games. The big concern was how he'd perform against lefties, but he was shockingly effective with a .400/.474/.600 slashline with 2 HR in his small sample of 57 PA's against lefties. If he can be productive against lefties and play everyday he should be a top 12 third basemen, however that could be a lot to ask of a 21 year old preparing to play his first full season.
Pitcher: SP/DH(?) Shohei Otani I mean he might be the biggest X-factor in baseball this season. His ceiling innings wise is probably 140 IP, but if he's a productive UTIL 3 days a week to go along with 140 IP at a 3.3-ish ERA that's an extremely useful player. I was going to put Zach Godley here, but post humidor for a guy who was top 10 in both swinging strike rate and groundball rate, he projects as a top 12-ish SP with a great lineup behind him.