Post by Bravos James on Feb 16, 2018 16:52:29 GMT -5
Cleveland Indians: Position Player: OF Yasmany Tomas. The definition of a player more valuable in fantasy than in reality, Tomas is a career -2.2 WAR player, but has shown flashes of fantasy relevance. Coming off a disastrous 2017 season in which he hit .241 with an elevated K rate in the small sample of 180 PA's. Injuries were the main cause of this, but even at his best he's not a very valuable player in real life which could lead to the Diamondbacks bringing a more productive all around OF and using Tomas as a pinch hitter/4th outfielder. If he gets everyday AB's and shows the potential he showed in his 31 HR .820 OPS 2016 season, he could be a valuable piece for the 2018 version of the Indians.
Pitcher: SP Patrick Corbin. This is more about the lack of SP surrounding him than Corbin himself, who's a pretty known commodity at this point. If the humidor has the 50% decrease in HR's that people have predicted than Corbin could see himself flipped for a big time name as the season goes on. Corbin is coming off a career high K rate and if a 4 ERA turns into a 3.2 ERA Corbin could be a top 40 SP.
Chicago White Sox: Position Player: OF Giancarlo Stanton. 70 HR? Coming off the season everyone thought he could have if he could just stay healthy, a trade sending him to the best lineup in baseball gives Stanton #1 hitter in fantasy potential. The leader of a loaded White Sox lineup that includes Edwin Encarnacion and Freddie Freeman as big power pieces as well, Mike needs Stanton to be close to what he was last year to compete for the best lineup in the AL. If the K rate sits at around 23% where it was last year compared to the 29% it had been for the rest of his career before last years breakout, then we could be talking about a .290 hitting 60 HR 130 R/RBI piece in that Yankees lineup.
Pitcher: SP Aaron Nola. Similarly to Blake Snell, Aaron Nola was considered a lock to break out last year, in the beginning that looked shaky, his first 8 starts featured a 4.76 ERA, however he rebounded and ended the season with a 12-11 record with 184 strikeouts in 168 innings. Nola has drastically underperformed his ERA compared to his FIP his first two seasons. His floor is probably a solid #2 starter, but his ceiling could be a top ten starting pitcher, if he could hit that ceiling combined with Luis Severino in Mike's rotation could lead to one of the better 1-2's in the AL.
Detroit Tigers: Position Player: SS Trevor Story. After the breakout 2016 in which Story hit .272 with 27 HRs in 97 games, some thought that Story could be a top 5 SS in 2017 with that power potential at Coors. That was not the case as his strikeout rate caught up to him, he was never going to be able to sustain a .270 avg with the K rate of 31% as it was in 2016, but last year the K rate jumped to 34% and the batting average fell to .239. He was still a fine power source at SS with 24 HR and had fine run/rbi numbers, but the ratios were awful. It's hard to say if he was really unlucky last year too as the .332 BABIP is kinda where he's always been. The HR/FB ratio fell from an ungaudy 23.7% in 2016 to a still far above average 16.2%. I don't know where his progression would be other than striking out less, 2017 Story might just be the Trevor Story to expect for the future.
Pitcher: SP Dylan Bundy. The 1-2 punch of Jon Lester and Johnny Cueto is solid enough for Alex, but there's a clear need for a #3 SP beyond that. Bundy is coming off a fine first full season in which he went 13-9 with a 4.24 ERA and 152 strikeouts in 169.2 IP. The concerns with the 2018 version of Bundy go beyond that, to start he outperfromed his xFIP by half a run (4.24 to 4.79), beyond that HR were already a problem last season at 1.4/9 IP and it's fair to expect that number to jump with a 11.5% HR/FB for a guy who gives up as much hard contact as he does at that ballpark, also the .273 BABIP is a lock to jump for someone who gives up hard contact at a 37% rate. If he can lower the flyball rate and hard contact allowed, he has a chance to be the #3 SP he was expected to be at the beginning of last season. Another cause for caution is that for a player with as much injury history as Bundy has, he was very not good on less that 6 days rest. a 4.69 ERA with 112 strikeouts in 132.2 IP on less than 6 days rest compared to a 2.68 ERA and 40 strikeouts in 37 IP could be a cause for concern considering the Orioles don't have the pitching depth to give Bundy six days rest with just two "established" starters currently on the roster.
Kansas City Royals: Position Player: 2B Yoan Moncada. The former top prospect in baseball didn't have the rookie season his supporters thought he would. Slashing .231/.338/.412 in 54 games with 8 HR is fine for a rookie, but the concern is the speed. Thought to be a top steals option in baseball once he got called up he had just 3 steals on 5 attempts. With the amount he walks and the above average hit and power tools, he should be a useful player in 2018, but too be the seven category stud that he's been expected to be he has to be a more efficient runner. This goes beyond his 2017 MLB season, as in AAA last season he was an awful 17/25 on SB chances and going back to 2016 he was 45/57 which is also below average. The speed tool is definitely there, but too be the top 5 second basemen he was expected to be, he has to show improvement on the base paths.
Pitcher: SP Jose Berrios. Berrios is coming off the breakout that he was expected to have in 2016. A 14-8 record with a 3.89 ERA and 139 K in 145.2 IP was enough to make him the Twins best starting pitcher last year, but he really struggled down the stretch. After an ace level first half, he stumbled to the finish line with a 5.17 ERA a 1.468 WHIP and a K/BB rate that fell from the first half 4.31 to 2.19 in the second half. It's possible this was just fatigue and he's the ace level pitcher he was in the first half, and that combined with Richards-Mengden-Matz is interesting.
Minnesota Twins: Position Player: 3B Manny Machado. If you're willing to pay a guy 35M a year, he better be important to your team. Machado is coming off a down year by his standards. He killed the ball, but a low BABIP despite a career high hard hit rate makes his 2018 outlook much more interesting. Already one of the top third basemen in here, his importance to Patty's lineup is just staying healthy.
Pitcher: SP Clayton Kershaw. Similarly to Machado the importance here is staying healthy. A Fulmer-Nova-Gibson-Hoffman rotation isn't gonna do it in the stacked AL Central. The injury concerns are definitely there with Kershaw. He's topped 27 starts just once in the last four seasons. There's really no other concern with Kershaw, he's far and away the best pitcher in baseball, he just needs to stay healthy to make Patty's rotation an above average one.
Pitcher: SP Patrick Corbin. This is more about the lack of SP surrounding him than Corbin himself, who's a pretty known commodity at this point. If the humidor has the 50% decrease in HR's that people have predicted than Corbin could see himself flipped for a big time name as the season goes on. Corbin is coming off a career high K rate and if a 4 ERA turns into a 3.2 ERA Corbin could be a top 40 SP.
Chicago White Sox: Position Player: OF Giancarlo Stanton. 70 HR? Coming off the season everyone thought he could have if he could just stay healthy, a trade sending him to the best lineup in baseball gives Stanton #1 hitter in fantasy potential. The leader of a loaded White Sox lineup that includes Edwin Encarnacion and Freddie Freeman as big power pieces as well, Mike needs Stanton to be close to what he was last year to compete for the best lineup in the AL. If the K rate sits at around 23% where it was last year compared to the 29% it had been for the rest of his career before last years breakout, then we could be talking about a .290 hitting 60 HR 130 R/RBI piece in that Yankees lineup.
Pitcher: SP Aaron Nola. Similarly to Blake Snell, Aaron Nola was considered a lock to break out last year, in the beginning that looked shaky, his first 8 starts featured a 4.76 ERA, however he rebounded and ended the season with a 12-11 record with 184 strikeouts in 168 innings. Nola has drastically underperformed his ERA compared to his FIP his first two seasons. His floor is probably a solid #2 starter, but his ceiling could be a top ten starting pitcher, if he could hit that ceiling combined with Luis Severino in Mike's rotation could lead to one of the better 1-2's in the AL.
Detroit Tigers: Position Player: SS Trevor Story. After the breakout 2016 in which Story hit .272 with 27 HRs in 97 games, some thought that Story could be a top 5 SS in 2017 with that power potential at Coors. That was not the case as his strikeout rate caught up to him, he was never going to be able to sustain a .270 avg with the K rate of 31% as it was in 2016, but last year the K rate jumped to 34% and the batting average fell to .239. He was still a fine power source at SS with 24 HR and had fine run/rbi numbers, but the ratios were awful. It's hard to say if he was really unlucky last year too as the .332 BABIP is kinda where he's always been. The HR/FB ratio fell from an ungaudy 23.7% in 2016 to a still far above average 16.2%. I don't know where his progression would be other than striking out less, 2017 Story might just be the Trevor Story to expect for the future.
Pitcher: SP Dylan Bundy. The 1-2 punch of Jon Lester and Johnny Cueto is solid enough for Alex, but there's a clear need for a #3 SP beyond that. Bundy is coming off a fine first full season in which he went 13-9 with a 4.24 ERA and 152 strikeouts in 169.2 IP. The concerns with the 2018 version of Bundy go beyond that, to start he outperfromed his xFIP by half a run (4.24 to 4.79), beyond that HR were already a problem last season at 1.4/9 IP and it's fair to expect that number to jump with a 11.5% HR/FB for a guy who gives up as much hard contact as he does at that ballpark, also the .273 BABIP is a lock to jump for someone who gives up hard contact at a 37% rate. If he can lower the flyball rate and hard contact allowed, he has a chance to be the #3 SP he was expected to be at the beginning of last season. Another cause for caution is that for a player with as much injury history as Bundy has, he was very not good on less that 6 days rest. a 4.69 ERA with 112 strikeouts in 132.2 IP on less than 6 days rest compared to a 2.68 ERA and 40 strikeouts in 37 IP could be a cause for concern considering the Orioles don't have the pitching depth to give Bundy six days rest with just two "established" starters currently on the roster.
Kansas City Royals: Position Player: 2B Yoan Moncada. The former top prospect in baseball didn't have the rookie season his supporters thought he would. Slashing .231/.338/.412 in 54 games with 8 HR is fine for a rookie, but the concern is the speed. Thought to be a top steals option in baseball once he got called up he had just 3 steals on 5 attempts. With the amount he walks and the above average hit and power tools, he should be a useful player in 2018, but too be the seven category stud that he's been expected to be he has to be a more efficient runner. This goes beyond his 2017 MLB season, as in AAA last season he was an awful 17/25 on SB chances and going back to 2016 he was 45/57 which is also below average. The speed tool is definitely there, but too be the top 5 second basemen he was expected to be, he has to show improvement on the base paths.
Pitcher: SP Jose Berrios. Berrios is coming off the breakout that he was expected to have in 2016. A 14-8 record with a 3.89 ERA and 139 K in 145.2 IP was enough to make him the Twins best starting pitcher last year, but he really struggled down the stretch. After an ace level first half, he stumbled to the finish line with a 5.17 ERA a 1.468 WHIP and a K/BB rate that fell from the first half 4.31 to 2.19 in the second half. It's possible this was just fatigue and he's the ace level pitcher he was in the first half, and that combined with Richards-Mengden-Matz is interesting.
Minnesota Twins: Position Player: 3B Manny Machado. If you're willing to pay a guy 35M a year, he better be important to your team. Machado is coming off a down year by his standards. He killed the ball, but a low BABIP despite a career high hard hit rate makes his 2018 outlook much more interesting. Already one of the top third basemen in here, his importance to Patty's lineup is just staying healthy.
Pitcher: SP Clayton Kershaw. Similarly to Machado the importance here is staying healthy. A Fulmer-Nova-Gibson-Hoffman rotation isn't gonna do it in the stacked AL Central. The injury concerns are definitely there with Kershaw. He's topped 27 starts just once in the last four seasons. There's really no other concern with Kershaw, he's far and away the best pitcher in baseball, he just needs to stay healthy to make Patty's rotation an above average one.