Post by Rays GM 北海道日(Will) on May 25, 2018 22:02:44 GMT -5
This is a strange draft. It doesn’t have an awe inspiring talent like last year (Greene, Hunter), or a prodigy (Harper, Bryce) at the top. Instead, it’s a deep class that offers a strong if not spectacular core of college players that will lead off the draft, and then a run of ultra toolsy and interesting high school hitters in the middle to back first round. It’s also a deep draft, where you can get 3rd round talent guys in most years in the 5th round this year. More than anything, there are a lot of HS arms in this draft who offer projection and upside.
Some notable draft positions are held by the Phillies, who own 7 first round picks in this year’s draft, and the Indians, who own 24 picks overall in this draft as Psych attempts to rebuild a barren farm.
I will also assume all guys will sign. This includes Jordyn Adams and Ethan Hankins, as it sounds like teams may be willing to pony up to keep them away from college. Kumar Rockar sounds like the guy who is most likely to honor his commitment to college, but I’m betting some team will sign him to keep his electric stuff on the MILB scene.
Blue represents a HS player. Black represent a college player.
1.1 Los Angeles Angels- Casey Mize-SP
Not hard to guess here. Mize isn’t the generational or freakish talent you’d expect at 1.1, but he’s still the best player here in this draft by a solid margin, offering a promising blend of safety and upside. He throws a mid 90’s sinker, along with a plus slider and splitter, complimenting it with plus control and mound presence, who should move quick and has #2 upside. He’s made an absolute fool of the SEC, and performance wise, there’s nobody to match him in college baseball. This pick makes sense for the Angels, and it also doesn’t hurt that John’s pitching lags behind his hitting in his farm. He can pair Mize with Kyle Wright, and watch them wreck havoc by as soon as 2019.
However, there’s been a lot of buzz recently Joey Bart is going to be the Tigers pick if they pass on Mize. He’s gained steam as the best prospect in the draft, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if the Tigers took him at 1. That might open the door for Bart to be taken here at 1.
1.2 Boston Red Sox -Nick Madrigal-2B
1.3 Boston Red Sox-Joey Bart-C
1.4 Boston Red Sox-Alec Bohm-3B/1B
1.5 Boston Red Sox-Travis Swaggerty-OF
This draft is highlighted by the core of college players that will go in the top 7-8 picks (With Jonathan India and Brady Singer in this group, but given they’re owned by Wood and Cody respectively, they won’t factor in here). Madrigal is the the safest of this group, showing elite bat control, run speed, bat speed, and plate discipline, all the while factoring as a plus defensive 2B. He doesn’t have much power, offering 10 Hr’s per year tops, and he is small and slightly built, making him more of a high floor than high ceiling guy. He gets comps to Jose Altuve and Dustin Pedroia, but lacks the pound for pound strength of the former and the controlled violent swing of the latter, capping his power potential.
Joey Bart will get popped by the Giants at the number 2 spot this year, as he offers a strong defensive presence as a catcher, along with easy plus power and a swing that is flyball oriented. He’s a guy who projects to hit .260 with 25-30 bombs at the next level, which, combined with his defensive home, makes him an easy top 5 spec in this year’s draft. He’s gained serious helium, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s picked before me.
Alec Bohm offers the best blend of power, patience, and hitting ability in this year’s draft, showing a strong and violent swing, and with a breakout junior year for Wichita State, has cemented himself as a top 5 pick. The only hindrance is that a lot of scouts don’t think he’s a 3B in the end, making him a 1B only prospect that will really need to hit to become an impact player at the majors. Another concern is he plays in the AAC division, which offers weaker competition than other high draft picks.
Travis Swaggerty struggled a bit with contact issues this year as he sold out for more power, but he offers the best all around tools in college, offering plus speed, arm, and glove, and will hit for power and average so long as his mechanics stay in sync. He’s gotten some comps to Benintendi, but he offers more power and less hit at this stage. I might also look to take Kelenic at this spot, if I don’t feel Swaggerty’s approach will hold up in professional ball.
1.6 Philadelphia Phillies- Carter Stewart-RHP
1.7 Philadelphia Phillies- Nolan Gorman-3B
Not sure where Kory will lean in his draft strategy, but given he’s has 7 first round picks, I feel like he can swing for the fences here. Stewart is the best prep pitcher (in my eyes), with a stunning 6’6” frame that offers more projection, a scary thought as he already boasts an uppers 90’s fastball with the best curveball in this draft (Go to 0:59 for his best curveball). The mechanics look clean, and there are not any major control issues that have dogged other prep pitchers in recent years (Matt Manning, Jason Groome, Riley Pint). He has arguably the highest upside as a pitcher in this year’s draft, but the only risk is that the history of HS righties in the top of the draft is well, not good.
Gorman, meanwhile, has perhaps the best raw power in this year’s draft, and is a good pure hitter as well. His bat has him connected to the Braves (who pick 8th in this year’s draft), and offers a similar upside to Stewart. The only concern is that his body might push him to 1B. Otherwise, he’s a fairly clean HS spec with a sky high ceiling.
1.8 Arizona Diamondbacks-Jordyn Adams-OF
Why not? Hemmons doesn’t own a pick after this until round 5 this year, so why not go for the HR ball? Adams looks like he will sign, and on tools alone, it’s awfully hard to argue against him going in the top 10. Perhaps the upsidiest (is that word?) of the prep bats in this year’s draft, he offers electrifying 80 grade speed, along with the potential to hits 20 HR’s and the ability to stick in CF. He was considered undraftable as late as last year (Due to his nonexistent track record of hitting in games and his commitment to North Carolina to play football and baseball), but he wowed at the NHSI (an invitational for top HS players), showing a quick swing that could generate repeated hard contact. He could be like last year’s Jo Adell, who offered tantalizing tools but only rocketed up draft boards after showing an improved ability to hit.
1.9 Cleveland Indians-Shane McClanahan-SP
Another upside play. At his best, McClanhan will show a 100 MPH fastball with a wipeout slider as a lefty, garnering some wildly ebullient Chris Sale comparisons. At his worst, he’ll be a little too hittable, looking more like an inconsistent middle of the rotation arm with some control issues. You can argue Matthew Liberatore, the top prep lefty in this year’s draft is a better prospect, but pound for pound, McClanahan’s upside is a solid grade better.
1.10-Los Angeles Angels- Jared Kelenic-OF
It’s tough to argue against this pick. While Liberatore is the more celebrated prospect given his ability to offer three plus pitches and immense projectability, Kelenic might offer the best blend of tools and hitting ability in this year’s draft. He has a long track record of hitting, making consistent loud contact with plus bat speed. Meanwhile, he offers plus speed, arm, and field, while potentially holding 20 HR in his bat one day. He has a chance to stick at CF, and ‘hard not to feel like if he hadn’t gotten sick and he didn’t play in Wisconsin, he could have gone even higher in this draft. The only concerns are is he is a bit old for HS (18 years, 10 months as of now), and he looks almost physically maxed out.
1.11-New York Yankees-Matthew Liberatore-LHP
Justin is a value guy: No matter what, he looks for the best value. At this point, Liberatore is simply too good of value grab to pass up here. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if he went in the top 10 here, but given that he doesn’t throw 100 MPH or throws a wicked breaking ball, he might fall here. No matter. Liberator’s immense projectability has already him touching 97 this spring, and his curveball, and change all project as plus with maturity and improvement. More importantly, he’s a smart pitcher, who’s renown for his polish and poise on the mound. Given that he projects to have plus command too one day, he looks the part as a guy that people will regret passing on.
1.12- Philadelphia Phillies- Trevor Larnach-LF
After swinging for the fences with Stewart and Gorman, a safer play would be good here for Kory. Larnach is the best college player outside the top 10, showing a well rounded skillset and advanced approach at the plate. He’s not a masher, and he’s probably destined for LF given his so so defensive chops, but he offers a high floor, and the potential to move quick.
1.13-Detroit Tigers-Kumar Rocker-RHP
I get the feeling Alex is after the big arms and big tools. In this case, Kumar would be the perfect choice. Son of a former football player, Rocker is an electrifying presence on the mound, wielding a high 90’s fastball with incredible movement (check it out in the first few seconds of the video) and a wipeout slider, the best two pitch combo in this draft after Carter Stewart. He’s an athletic marvel, and is projected to improve on his middling control. There were some concerns about reliever risk here, but he’s performed well this spring, and given his bloodlines, and improving secondaries, he’s been moving up the board in many mock drafts. He’ll likely get drafted in the comp round, but will command a bonus commensurate with a mid-1st round pick. For a decent chunk of the past year or so, he’s been regarded as the best HS prospect in Georgia, especially as Ethan Hankins has fallen off this spring.
1.14 Philadelphia Phillies- Cole Wilcox-RHP
Then again, some might argue that Wilcox has already surpassed Rocker as the best HS Georgian prospect. Just a couple weeks ago, Wilcox and Rocker faced off in a HS playoff matchup, and Wilcox came out on top. He struck out eight over 7 innings, while Rocker lasted only 4 innings and gave up a HR to - wait - Cole Wilcox himself.
Put simply, out of the vaunted Georgian trio of Rocker, Wilcox, and Hankins, Wilcox has the best chance of becoming a starter. He doesn’t touch the upper 90’s like Rocker and Hankings, or possess a wipeout pitch like Rocker, but he offers 3 advanced pitches, and generally has a better idea of where they’re going. The mechanics are a little wonky and a bit uneven (Check them out below), but he repeats them well, and his frame of 6’5” inches and 220 Ibs points to a workhorse like pitcher in the future. In my mind, the Phillies have now taken the two best HS RHP pitchers in the draft, the other being Stewart.
1.15 Boston Red Sox-Grayson Rodriguez-SP
Rodriguez is the guy who has gained the most helium in this draft process, as he went from a likely college bound pitcher to a sure first round pick. I might be a little too greedy putting him here, as he might not even be around at this pick. The Pirates, who pick at 10, are reportedly considering him, which makes an awful lot of sense given Rodriguez is the kind of big-bodied, power arm with heavy spin on his pitches that appeal greatly to them.
Anyways, Rodriguez now operates in the mid 90’s with a sinking fastball and two projected plus breaking balls (include a sharp spike curve) after adding about 25 Ibs of muscle in the offseason. He also possesses a 4th pitch, a changeup, that he throws often, making him a rarity for a HS righthander. He has a good frame, (6’5”, 230 Ibs), and control isn’t a problem for him. If I don’t take Rodriguez, Turang and Casas are other guys I’ll consider.
1.16 Colorado Rockies-Brice Turang-SS
Colorado badly needs some talent in its farm, and Turang is the best start to jumpstart this process. Turant was bandied as a possible number one pick last year, showing the polish, advanced bat, and well rounded tools that made him an exciting SS prospect. He’s been off this spring, posting fair number in his senior year of HS, as many evaluators have chalked due it being boredom/overexposure. Even so, he doesn’t possess any glaring weaknesses as a prospect. He runs well, is a very good bet to stay at SS, is a polished hitter who is projectable and can add power in the future. He’s good value at this pick.
1.17 Cleveland Indians-Triston Casas-1B
Psych lacks a big bat in his farm, and I Casas is the best remedy for it. Casas has been dinged due to being a) a 1B only prospect and b) being pitched around this spring. Evaluators haven’t gotten a ton of looks at the bat because he’s an exceptionally patient hitter who would rather walk than hit, which has put his hit tool in question. What isn’t in question is his power. He’s posted some of the best exit velos in his age group, and it’s hard not to feel like he’s the best HS bat behind Kelenic in this draft. There’s a chance someone pops him earlier than this tho.
1.18 Philadelphia Phillies-Connor Scott-OF
Scott comes from the same high school as Kyle Tucker, which inevitably leads to the comparisons. On some level, you can see it. Both have a rather unorthodox swing, and both are regarded as pure hitters with intriguing power upside. Still, Tucker is the better pure hitter, while Scott is the faster one, posting double plus run times.
Power is where most people vary on Scott. Some see his slender frame (a gawky 6’4”, 180 Ibs), and project for a CF with more power in the future, while others see a corner outfielder who can hit 10-15 HR’s tops. Either way, Scott was pushing into the top 15 in early May, but injuries/bad weather have limited his exposure, causing his stock to drop. At this point in the draft, while Kory might prefer a college bat/pitcher to complement his HS heavy run so far, there just aren’t any really worth taking over Scott. He offers an exciting blend of polish and upside rarely seen in HS hitters.
1.19 Cleveland Indians-Jordan Groshams-3B
Another big bat for Psych. Groshams has gained stock as he’s shown a polished bat that has unanimously garnered positive reviews for its speed and path to the ball, while his stringy frame makes it easier to project plus power in the future. However, a big key for him would be to adjust his swing path-- right now it’s a bit even, making him a line drive hitter that undersells his natural power.
He also gets good reviews for his athletic ability, and has performed as well as anyone in the incredibly tough Texas HS scene. He checks off all the boxes, as he’s tooled up (he can play anywhere in the IF, probably 2B or 3B), has a strong hit and projected power tool, and is renown for his makeup. He and Casas will jumpstart the rebuild for the Indians.
1.20 Atlanta Braves-Cole Winn-RHP
Evaluating HS pitchers can be tough. Which is why when Winn came out firing three plus pitches while repeatedly performing at a high level for Orange Lutheran HS in California, his name shot up the draft board. He’s regarded as the most consistent of HS pitchers, and his silky smooth mechanics makes it easy to see a starter with plus command in the future.
He checks off a lot of other boxes too. He performed well in the baseball hotbed of SoCal (he moved there for his senior year of HS), which has encouraged scouts who were worried he was dominating low level competition in Colorado. Meanwhile, he’s a good athlete with strong marks for leadership and work ethic, and has a good frame to start. Finally, he’s the rare HS pitcher who uses 4 quality pitches, with his hard curve and slurvy cutter leading the way, followed by a solid changeup. While he doesn’t throw in the high 90’s like his fellow HS peers, he’s easily one of the safest HS pitching specs in this draft.
1.21 New York Yankees- Logan Gilbert-RHP
Another value play for Justin. Gilbert’s stock fluctuated a bit in this year’s draft as his velocity was a bit down, but now it’s back up, and once you combine that with his projectable 6’5” 195 Ibs frame along with two above average breaking pitches, you have a polished starter who has performed in both college and summer competition, and shows very flew flaws as a prospect who has no prior injury history. Gilbert was peaking in the early teens before the year started, so getting him here is a nice grab.
1.22 Seattle Mariners-Mike Vasil-RHP
An impact arm should be high on Dave’s list when he goes drafting this year. Mike Vasil can be that guy. Before injuring his elbow in May, Vasil was sneaking into some top 10 consideration. Thanks to that injury, he won’t be pick there this June, but a return to the mound just recently has ensured he will enter this year’s draft as one of the best northeastern prep arms in recent memory.
Vasil will show a mid 90’s fastball with a curveball that projects to plus, and his changeup, while in its nascent states, is also projected to be at least average. His arm actions and burly frame point to a mid-rotation workhorse, and scouts love him for his makeup and work ethic. In his first start from injury, he showed a plus changeup, while his curveball regressed to merely average, but that’s to be expected given the rust. He’ll enter Dave’s farm as his best pitching prospect, once with significant upside but promising polish.
1.23 Colorado Rockies-Ryan Rolison-RHP
1.24 Colorado Rockies- Ryan Weathers-LHP
The Ryans have been moving in opposite direction since early spring, where Rolision, once seen as a potential top 10 pick, has been hit a little bit too hard this spring. Still he offers a promising three pitch mix, operation in the low 90’s with a plus curve and a promising changeup. He’ll move fast, as a potential middle rotation starter.
I have Weathers slipping a bit due to his rather pudgy frame and lack of one complete standout skill, but make no mistake- this is great value for Alex here. Weathers has deceptive athleticism (he’s a former basketball player),and while he doesn’t wow you with one pitch, he throws three above average pitches (Fastball, curveball, changeup) with good control. The body is a bit soft, but besides that, there’s no negatives here, making him a safe prospect. The Padres are considering him with their 7th overall pick, but he’ll likely fall into the teens in this draft.
1.25 Texas Rangers-Jameson Hannah-OF
A polished college hitter with intriguing athleticism and power? Sounds like a good fit for Bill. Hannah does everything you want from an OF prospect -- he’ll show plus speed, surprising pop, and an advanced approach and strong hitting ability that has played everywhere from D1 Baseball to the Cape Cod League. He should be able to stick in CF, giving him a well rounded base of tools and a premium defensive position.
I think he’s a real sleeper, and believe he’s being overlooked due to his size (5’9”) and that he plays for Dallas Baptist, a school even I never heard of despite living in Dallas for 8 years. Still, when playing against the best competition (The Cape Cod League for instance), he’s performed well. He’ll likely fall to the comp round in real life, but I believe his tools and performance merit a first round selection.
1.26 Philadelphia Phillies-Mason Denaburg-RHP
1.27 Philadelphia Phillies-Steele Walker-OF
Denaburg is another HS right hander who would have probably been taken in the early teens if not for a biceps injury this spring. At his peak, he’ll show a lively upper 90’s fastball (check it out at 0:19) with a downright nasty curve, along with a workable change. More importantly, in two matchups against the more highly touted Carter Stewart, he was more than impressive, raising his stock. Some scouts believe that one he focuses on baseball (he also plays football), he can focus more and improve his stock. At 26, he’s great value.
Walker is a ready made college performer who possesses perhaps the best pure hitting skills in college behinds Madrigal. However, he’s a bit of tweener, as he doesn’t have enough speed for CF, but not quite enough power for the corners. Still, he’s hitting for more power in games this year, and his hitting skills will mean he will move quick.
1.28 Los Angeles Dodgers-Ethan Hankins-RHP
Hankins’ fall stops here. His draft position depends solely on how much you believe in his spring performance (Meh, because his 100 MPH fastball now sits in the low 90’s and he doesn’t possess a good breaking ball now), and how much you believe in his summer one (Elite fastball, promising curve, monstrous projection). It’s a gamble here, but pitching starved LAD can take a chance on a former projected top 5 pick who’s spring injury may have affected his performance this year.
At his best, Hankins is one of the terrifying HS right handers in some time, showing an elite fastball, promising array of offspeed speed, and strong deception that is buoyed by his shimmy (Check it out below). Right now, he looks like a bounceback candidate who’s rusty from so much time off due to a stiff shoulder injury, and will probably fall to the 2nd round in real life.
His delivery also looks stiffer this Spring, with the ball being held awkwardly in the overhand slot, compared to a smoother motion last year
This Year
Last Year
1.29 Boston Red Sox-Anthony Siegler-C
Siegler is such a weird baseball player. He’s a switch hitting catcher who’s also a switch throwing pitcher, making him one of the most unusual high profile prospects in some time. As a catcher, he posts strong defensive chops, where his athletic frame allows him to be agile behind the plate. Meanwhile, his hitting ability is consistently praised, with a line drive approach. His power is merely average, but he’s also a surprisingly solid runner given his frame and position. He can also play 2B.
He has big fans in the analytics area given his hitting ability, versatility, and athleticism. The Dodgers are in on him with their first round pick, and he bears resemblance to their former first rounder, Austin Barnes.
1.30 Miami Marlins-Jeremy Eierman-SS
I believe Eierman is a solid pick here who’s being undervalued due to a bad spring at the plate. At his best, he’ll show an electric bat that can smack HRs, all the while posting plus run speed and playing a solid SS. At his worst, his swing and mechanics can get out of wack, leading to serious questions about his hit tool. Additionally, not everyone is convinced he can stick at SS. If you believe in the bat, and believe he can stick at SS, you have a nifty little steal here at 30. If you don’t, well, you probably took him 2 rounds too early.
