Estimated NL Playoffs & Division Odds
Jul 22, 2018 21:34:39 GMT -5
White Sox GM (Michael) and Dodgers GM (Jake) like this
Post by Padres GM (Noah) on Jul 22, 2018 21:34:39 GMT -5
These odds are kind of arbitrary. Didn't use anything really besides general sense and strength of schedule.
NL West:
The Giants are in first, and also have a relatively easy schedule remaining. They play the Phillies & Rockies in their last five weeks, but also have to face the Twins and division rival Diamondbacks. Their final week is against the Padres, in which could essentially act as a pre-playoff match-up for the division and 2nd Wild Card slot. The Padres have a slightly more consistent schedule that is similar in difficulty, playing the Brewers, Dodgers, Phillies, and Blue Jays before the Giants. These odds could swing drastically in coming weeks between the top two. Both teams are looking strong into the stretch.
The Diamondbacks will look to Rockies, Mets, Giants, Marlins, and Braves. Being 10 games back, they'll have to hope the Padres struggle and make sure they beat the Giants in week 19. The Dodgers have a mixed schedule, and are 15 games back. They play the Pirates this week, and then the Padres and Mets. They finish easily with the Red Sox and Rockies so they'll need to not lose too much ground over the next few weeks before the end of the season, and beat the Padres.
The Rockies are most likely mathematically eliminated.
The Diamondbacks and Padres have both dealt with a lot of injuries, so could see a return from them coming into the tail end of the season. Both teams have accumulated stellar depth that has helped them overcome this. Watch for injuries that might change these playoff odds.
NL Central:
The Pirates (Credit to JT, then Ethan) appear to be running away with the division, but they face an extremely and increasingly difficult end-of-year schedule, playing the Dodgers, Brewers, Rays, White Sox, and Cubs. Unfortunately for the Cubs, they also play a difficult schedule. The Reds, Orioles, Cardinals, Brewers, and Pirates are slated for the next five weeks. If Psych's masterpiece could beat the Orioles, they'd have a shot while playing against the Pirates at the end of the season. The Reds finish with a fairly easy schedule, but would need to beat the Cubs next week to stay in it. They play the Cardinals, Marlins, Phillies, and Yankees after that. At 21.5 games back, winning the division is possible with a significantly easier schedule, but it'd require Cody to make some moves and he's leaned towards staying pat and holding onto farm pieces. The Cardinals play some mediocre teams, but they are too far back and their roster is not ready for a run despite marquee pieces like Bryce Harper and Ozzie Albies. The Brewers are too far out to have a chance.
NL East:
The worst division. Once ruled by Oren and Kevin, it's a shell of its former self. Jack appears to be running away with the division. The Marlins and Phillies are both too far out. The Mets have an average schedule moving forward. The Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Braves, and Nationals are neither easy wins nor difficult games. The Nationals-Mets match-up may prove key at the end of the season. The Nationals play the Marlins, Phillies, Braves, Rays, and Mets. I'd say the Nationals schedule is slightly easier, but it could easily come down to the wire. The Braves play the Twins, Nationals, Mets, Marlins, and Diamondbacks. This is a more difficult schedule but has more opportunity to make a play for the division. I'd argue the Braves have a chance until you look at their team. Wood probably won't make any moves to compete and they are the 24th ranked team based on categories. The Nationals and Mets are 14 and 15 respectively.
Explaining the Wild Card, one of the Pirates or Cubs is almost a lock to win a Wild Card, and the Giants or Padres are most likely to win the 2nd Wild Card looking at games back.
To Recap:
The Pirates, Cubs, Giants, Padres, and Mets look like the most likely playoff teams, but some dramatic week 21's will be played. The Pirates-Cubs, Padres-Giants, and Mets-Nationals match-ups should be watched with interest. I'll update these odds after next week going into the playoffs.
NL West:
| Teams | GB | Division Odds | Total Playoff Odds |
| San Francisco Giants | X | 42.5% | 80% |
| San Diego Padres | 1 | 42.5% | 80% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 10 | 15% | 20% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 15 | 10% | 15% |
| Colorado Rockies | 96 | 0% | 0% |
The Giants are in first, and also have a relatively easy schedule remaining. They play the Phillies & Rockies in their last five weeks, but also have to face the Twins and division rival Diamondbacks. Their final week is against the Padres, in which could essentially act as a pre-playoff match-up for the division and 2nd Wild Card slot. The Padres have a slightly more consistent schedule that is similar in difficulty, playing the Brewers, Dodgers, Phillies, and Blue Jays before the Giants. These odds could swing drastically in coming weeks between the top two. Both teams are looking strong into the stretch.
The Diamondbacks will look to Rockies, Mets, Giants, Marlins, and Braves. Being 10 games back, they'll have to hope the Padres struggle and make sure they beat the Giants in week 19. The Dodgers have a mixed schedule, and are 15 games back. They play the Pirates this week, and then the Padres and Mets. They finish easily with the Red Sox and Rockies so they'll need to not lose too much ground over the next few weeks before the end of the season, and beat the Padres.
The Rockies are most likely mathematically eliminated.
The Diamondbacks and Padres have both dealt with a lot of injuries, so could see a return from them coming into the tail end of the season. Both teams have accumulated stellar depth that has helped them overcome this. Watch for injuries that might change these playoff odds.
NL Central:
| Teams | GB | Division Odds | Total Playoff Odds |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | X | 65% | 99% |
| Chicago Cubs | 12 | 19% | 70% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 21.5 | 10% | 25% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 30.5 | 1% | 2% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 57.5 | 0% | 0% |
The Pirates (Credit to JT, then Ethan) appear to be running away with the division, but they face an extremely and increasingly difficult end-of-year schedule, playing the Dodgers, Brewers, Rays, White Sox, and Cubs. Unfortunately for the Cubs, they also play a difficult schedule. The Reds, Orioles, Cardinals, Brewers, and Pirates are slated for the next five weeks. If Psych's masterpiece could beat the Orioles, they'd have a shot while playing against the Pirates at the end of the season. The Reds finish with a fairly easy schedule, but would need to beat the Cubs next week to stay in it. They play the Cardinals, Marlins, Phillies, and Yankees after that. At 21.5 games back, winning the division is possible with a significantly easier schedule, but it'd require Cody to make some moves and he's leaned towards staying pat and holding onto farm pieces. The Cardinals play some mediocre teams, but they are too far back and their roster is not ready for a run despite marquee pieces like Bryce Harper and Ozzie Albies. The Brewers are too far out to have a chance.
NL East:
| Teams | GB | Division Odds | Total Playoff Odds |
| New York Mets | X | 50% | 55% |
| Washington Nationals | 11 | 35% | 38% |
| Atlanta Braves | 11 | 15% | 16% |
| Miami Marlins | 54.5 | 0% | 0% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 77.5 | 0% | 0% |
The worst division. Once ruled by Oren and Kevin, it's a shell of its former self. Jack appears to be running away with the division. The Marlins and Phillies are both too far out. The Mets have an average schedule moving forward. The Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Braves, and Nationals are neither easy wins nor difficult games. The Nationals-Mets match-up may prove key at the end of the season. The Nationals play the Marlins, Phillies, Braves, Rays, and Mets. I'd say the Nationals schedule is slightly easier, but it could easily come down to the wire. The Braves play the Twins, Nationals, Mets, Marlins, and Diamondbacks. This is a more difficult schedule but has more opportunity to make a play for the division. I'd argue the Braves have a chance until you look at their team. Wood probably won't make any moves to compete and they are the 24th ranked team based on categories. The Nationals and Mets are 14 and 15 respectively.
Explaining the Wild Card, one of the Pirates or Cubs is almost a lock to win a Wild Card, and the Giants or Padres are most likely to win the 2nd Wild Card looking at games back.
To Recap:
The Pirates, Cubs, Giants, Padres, and Mets look like the most likely playoff teams, but some dramatic week 21's will be played. The Pirates-Cubs, Padres-Giants, and Mets-Nationals match-ups should be watched with interest. I'll update these odds after next week going into the playoffs.
