Rule 5 Draft Analytics
Oct 4, 2018 20:19:54 GMT -5
Tigers GM (Alex), Rangers GM (Bill), and 1 more like this
Post by Yankees GM (Justin) on Oct 4, 2018 20:19:54 GMT -5
Since everyone seems to think the Rule 5 draft is so steeply in favor of the first round relative to the third, I decided to look at the history of past drafts and see their predictive power.
I had someone else grade every player taken since 2015 on the 20-80 scale. On this scale, 50 is average, 40 indicates a backup career and 60 indicates an all-star level talent. It's the best way to quickly and easily assess talent.
So how does the pick # affect the player grade is the question. And the answer is this:
As you can see, there's a steep dropoff in talent from pick 1 to about 10. After that, picks don't vary in talent by more than 15%. So what does that mean?
It means that pick prices shouldn't vary by more than 15% if your pick is outside of the top 10.
If pick 11 sells for $5M, that would make pick 90 worth about $4.2M.
Inside the top 10, the drop is not even that steep itself. If pick 1 sells for $5M, then pick 10 would be worth about $4.3M and pick 90 would be worth about $3.6M.
The formula to calculate pick value in terms of 20-80 player grade is 50.7 - 3.12*ln(picknum)
So no more $8M 1st rounders and $2M 3rd rounders! The picks don't differ by that much!
I had someone else grade every player taken since 2015 on the 20-80 scale. On this scale, 50 is average, 40 indicates a backup career and 60 indicates an all-star level talent. It's the best way to quickly and easily assess talent.
So how does the pick # affect the player grade is the question. And the answer is this:
As you can see, there's a steep dropoff in talent from pick 1 to about 10. After that, picks don't vary in talent by more than 15%. So what does that mean?
It means that pick prices shouldn't vary by more than 15% if your pick is outside of the top 10.
If pick 11 sells for $5M, that would make pick 90 worth about $4.2M.
Inside the top 10, the drop is not even that steep itself. If pick 1 sells for $5M, then pick 10 would be worth about $4.3M and pick 90 would be worth about $3.6M.
The formula to calculate pick value in terms of 20-80 player grade is 50.7 - 3.12*ln(picknum)
So no more $8M 1st rounders and $2M 3rd rounders! The picks don't differ by that much!
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