A few too many words on the state of ODC farms

[Rays GM]

12. Baltimore Orioles

1.Jesus Sanchez-OF
2.Grayson Rodriguez-SP
3.Dane Dunning-SP
4.Gavin Lux-SS
5.Andrew Knizner-C
6.Ryan Weathers-SP
7.Tyler Stephenson-C
8.Seuly Matias-OF
9.Shane Baz-SP
10.Albert Abreu-SP
11.Jahmai Jones-2B
12.Kyle Fuknhouser-SP
13.Jameson Hannah-OF
14.Luis Ortiz-SP
15.Jake Rogers-C
16.Ronnie Dawson-OF
17.Kevin Maitan-SS
18.Kingston Liniak-OF
19.Braxton Lee-OF


Jesus Sanchez-OF
Sanchez has explosive power, but unlike some people on this list (*cough* Seuly Matias* cough*), Sanchez actually has a reasonable chance to get to it. He has good feel to hit, and has the classic RF power tools (plus arm) with interesting speed and range for a power hitter of his stature. The one thing that might befall him, and has befallen many hitters of his potential, is his approach. He doesn’t truly have a great grasp of the strike zone, and he’s often too aggressive in swinging. Now, K’s won’t ever be a problem because of his innate ability to put the bat on the ball, but it will lead to a lack of walks and plenty of weak contact if he doesn’t adjust. I think the tools are exciting, but he needs to make the last step to become the middle of the order hitter he has the potential to become.



Grayson Rodriguez-SP
Aggressive ranking for Grayson, but I like to reiterate I value upside in this league, and Grayson has plenty of it. He has the frame, the stuff, and the command of his pitches to become a frontline starter in this league, and there’s only so many pitchers I can say about that right now in the minors. He’ll mix a mid to high 90’s fastball, plus slider, and a curve and change that flash from average to above average. He’s a good athlete for his size (6’5”, 200), and has a great downhill plane when he pitches that gets ground balls. Grayson was a popup guy this year after he improved conditioning, and it’s possible things are still clicking so there might be even more coming next year. I think he’s a good candidate to move up lists next year quick as a potential #2 starter.


Dane Dunning-SP
Acquired by the White Sox with Reynaldo and Giolito in the deal that sent Adam Eaton to Washington, I generally think Dunning is now the most promising of the 3, depending on if you buy Lopez’s 2nd half resurgence. He has a heavy, 96 MPH sinking fastball that gets groundballs, a plus curve that he uses mainly to gets swing and misses, and an above average change that helps him turn through the lineup a second time around. He’s ML ready, and has the control, frame, stuff to become a mid rotation starter, and already projects to become the best White Sox rotation pitcher if you’re gonna pull from ZIPS. He ended the year early with an elbow strain, and I haven’t heard much beyond that, so let’s hope he avoids TJ surgery.


Gavin Lux-SS
Lux had a monster breakout this year in High A, which might be chalked up to the friendly confines of the California League, but he was physically different this year. Bulked up after a disastrous full pro debut season, Lux started flashing average pop while retaining his athletic bounciness that should let him play up the middle, which makes for a suddenly very interesting combination. With more hard contact, Lux has become a viable ML hitter, and should be a threat on the basepaths with his plus speed. He projects to be at 2B given his lack of limited range, but a 5:5 bat with plus speed at 2B is hard to find.


Andrew Knizner-C
Knizner is an offensive first catcher with good bat speed, a short swing, and enough raw pop to profile as average. In other words, after hitting well at AA this year, he’s already one of the most exciting hitters at the catcher position. He doesn’t project to offer much as a fielder at a catching position, with below average fielding skills and a mediocre arm, but he should be good enough to stick. Yadier might be signed until 2020, but he’s fragile, and it’s clear that Knizner is the future there with Kelly gone. Expect him to start seeing reps by mid next year as the rare 5:5 bat at the catcher position.


Ryan Weathers-SP
Weathers is unusually polished for a HS pitcher, with good feel for pitching, and a trio of 55 pitches (with a fastball that gets several nods for its high spin rate that makes it especially hard for hitters to locate on) that are already present. There’s not much to dream on with Weathers who is physically not much projectable and a bit of a short strider, but he’s already close to a finish product that he might move unusually quick for a HS pitcher. He projects as a #3 starter.


Tyler Stephenson-C
Stephenson has been slowed down by injuries in pro ball, but the broad base of tools here is still very very promising. He has a 70 arm and good feel for catching, which means he projects as an above average defensive catcher at the positions. He’s got big raw pop, which is all he needs to profile as a backstop in today’s game. The only question left is his hitting ability, but after a promising 22 year old season in the hitting repressive FSL, he’s been moving up lists this offseason. Even if you see a 4 bat in him, that's enough for his power, arm to play at catcher. He projects as an offensive minded catcher, but there’s much more risk with him than with Knizner given Knizner looks like a plus bat already.


Seuly Matias-OF
No one drew more polarized appraisals than Seuly Matias this year. He has elite power for a corner OF, and it’s a product of terrific bat speed, loft, and pure, good old fashioned strength. What’s in his question is his approach, hit ability to hit breaking balls, and whether he can make enough adjustments to survive in the major leagues. His astronomical K rate is concerning, but I do still have hope for him. He improved on his K rate in the second half, showing an ability to lay off breaking pitches, and his inability to make contact is more due to aggressiveness than poor bat control/speed (which is much more tougher to fix). Matias may never be more than a 40/45 bat in the ML, but everything else is so off the charts good, that might not matter. He has enough speed to cover ground in RF, where his 70 arm plays well. With a ML ball, he projects as a 30 HR hitter, albeit one who flirts with a sub 300 OBP.


Shane Baz-SP
Bas has terrific movement on his pitches, and was picked up by the analytically inclined Pirates who loved spin rates. But his pro debut was a bit uneven, and he was knocked around a bit in the appy league. His control wasn’t all that great, and some people started to question if he was starter material. It’s a bit too early for that talk, and I’d like to see if the Rays development staff can get better results than the Pirates staff. The stuff is still pretty great (3 above average to plus pitches), so if his command ticks up, he can shoot up this list. Given his athleticism and frame, there’s a good bet that he does. He profiles realistically as a #3 starter, but there’s front of the rotation potential here.


Albert Abreu-SP
Abreu struggled with injuries and command this year, and the arrows have clearly pointed down to a RP role. When on, the stuff is dazzling; he’ll show potentially a 70 fastball and change,along with a plus curveball, which is up there for one of the best arsenals in professional baseball. But his command is more fringey now, and no one believes he can handle the workload of a starting role thanks to various ailments over the year. He projects to be an elite late inning option, with the chance to be a closer.


Jahmai Jones-2B
Jones struggled a bit this year as he adjusted to 2B, leading to a drop off at the plate. The tools are still interesting (plus speed, average pop, good awareness of the strike zone), but the offensive package isn’t as impressive as it was a year ago. He’ll be okay at 2B given his athleticism and makeup, but the real question if if he hits again. If he does, he’ll be back on top 100 lists as a well rounded middle IF who can do a little bit of everything.

Kyle Funkhouser-SP
This was a pretty thrilling run of intriguing prospects, but Funk is probably where the big drop off of this happens. Funkhouser’s pitch qualities and velocity have fluctuated through an inconsistent pro career, and this year he dipped a bit again. He can ride his fastball into the mid 90’s, but it lacks good movement, and the rest of his secondaries are merely average. He was fine in AA this year, but was far too hittable and often left pitches to be crushed in the zone. With the incredible upper level of depth the tigers have in pitching, it’s looking more and more likely Funk is relegated to the pen, where his fastball can play up and he can hone in on his best secondary pitch (his slider, which flashes above average) to be his out pitch.

Jameson Hannah-OF
Hannah has a high floor profile that rests on his speed (plus) and ability to make consistent, hard gap contact. The power is fringe average, which is plenty enough as Hannah should stick in CF, and his bat projects to be above average with an innate ability to square up pitches and maximize his raw power. The ceiling is a first division regular at CF who can do a little bit of everything, but lacks that breakaway tool to be anything more than a 55. If the bat doesn’t develop as hoped (and there’s risk given his small college background), then the profile slips into 4th OF territory.

Luis Ortiz-SP
Ortiz got lit up in the majors this year, and he really didn’t fool anybody. That’s because his arsenal is really a fastball-slider gambit only, and while both pitches project as plus, his lack of a reliable 3rd pitch left him too vulnerable to batters. In AAA, he struggled to strikeout batters too. Ortiz has stagnated a bit in the past couple years, and it’s looking more and more likely he nevers figures it out to be anything more than a late inning BP option or frustrating backend starter.


Jake Rogers-C
Rogers is one of the most gifted defensive catcher in the minors, with an elite arm and plus receiving skills. But he lacks bat to ball skills, and struggles too much with pitch recognition and isn’t patient enough to offset his low avg with walks. He does have average raw pop, but its doubtful he maximizes it with ML pitchers. He’s going to have a ML career anywhere he goes because of the low threshold for hitters there and his elite defense, but he looks more like a backup catcher who can hit one out every now and then.

Ronnie Dawson-OF
Dawson has interesting tools (plus power, speed), but its a LF profile with poor feel to hit and overaggressive hacks. He projects as a 4th OF on a team that doesn’t really care for defense.


Kevin Maitan-SS/2B

Now:



Three years ago:



This is why makeup matters. Maitan has shown little desire to work hard and maintain his conditioning, and his increased weight has led to a slower swing with a hitch that wasn’t remotely dangerous to even Pioneer league pitchers. He projects to shift to 3B now, but it really won’t matter because his bat received largely unenthused grades from evaluators this year, and received plenty of non-prospect evaluations. He’s here on pedigree only, and hope that he might have found something with a decent August that flashed some of that big pop that he was one famous for.

Kingston Liniak - 4th OF
Kingston Liniak is farther away from Braxton lee, and may end up in the same reserve OF role as Lee, but given his frame (6’2” and 170 IBs), and his wide array of tools and ability to stay in CF, he’s much more interesting. At best, he can be a CF who can post plus run times, hit for average, show enough pop to be a starter, and be a grinder. If he doesn’t grow into power and develop the polish needed, he’ll be a good reserve OF.


Braxton Lee
Braxton Lee gets praise for his periphery value. He’s a good baserunner, has double plus speed, and grades above average in the field. He’s also good at making contact, rarely striking out. However, he makes very little impact when hitting the ball, and thus has poor power. It relegates him to a 4th OF role at best.

Sleeper
Harold Ramirez-OF
Ramirez has pedigree as a former top 100 prospect, but several disappointing years later, he was released and signed by the Marlins. His hit tools receives several 55 to plus grades, but his lack of power, slow foot speed, and corner position all eventually led to a slow deterioration of his prospect standing. But last year, he made some tweaks with his swing and showed a reduced GB rate, with an uptick in fly balls, and had his best season in 3 years. He’s mashed Venezuelan Winter Ball, and even with his profile, there’s an interesting low end regular/4th OF if he continues to develop and make changes.

Summary
This is a good farm here. It’s miles better than late last year, and has a good mix of high probability regular with offensive upside (Sanchez, Lux, Knizer, Stephenson), with enough upside plays (Grayson, Seuly, Baz, Weathers, Abreu) to keep things interesting. It also has some upper level pitching that can contribute immediately (Dunning, Ortiz, Funk). Its a balanced farm, but it lacks depth. Beyond these 14 or so guys, there’s no one else in this far, so it’ll be up to Jeff to fill things in.

[Rays GM]

11. Angels

1.Keibert Ruiz-C
2.Brent Honeywell-SP
3.Brendan Rodgers-SS
4.Kyle Wright-SP
5.Yordan Alvarez-1B
6.Shaun Anderson-SP
7.Luis Santana-2B
8.Anthony Kay-Sp
9.Adam Haseley-OF
10.Sheldon Neuse-3B
11.Zack Thompson-Sp
12.Colin Poche-RP
13.Eddy Diaz-SS
14.Pedro Avila-SP
15.Nick Sandlin-RP
16.Sandy Gaston-SP
17.Michael Perez-C
18.Cameron Bishop-SP
19.Juan Uriarte-C
20.Morgan Cooper-SP


Keibert Ruiz-C
For all the hand wringing over the misery that is ML catchers and their hitting ability, the minors is overflowing with backstop talent. Keibert, 19, and fresh off a solid showing in AA, is one of the best. He has a stable offensive profile that rests on his excellent bat to ball abilities, and while he doesn’t walk much, his innate ability to hit means he won’t K much either. Power isn’t something he’ll ever flash more than average, but it’ll be enough to do damage, and his ability to barrel up balls means he’ll be able to maximize his average raw pop. On defense, he’s praised for his advanced skills behind the plate, and while his arm isn’t more than average, it’s good enough to play as a catcher. He projects safely as a league average hitter as a catcher, which makes him a well above average fantasy catcher.


Brent Honeywell-SP
Honey has a deep kitchen sink of pitches, with his best pitching being an elite screwball that befuddles batters. But the screwball is used sparingly, and instead, he really focuses in on mixing in his plus changeup and fastball, with an above average splitter and average cutter to flummox batters. All told, Honey might throw as a many as 6 different pitches, with good feel and control for pitching. He’s a gamer on the mound, and if everything comes back after TJ surgery, he should be an immediate impact starting pitcher, and who has a #2 ceiling. He’s a bit small which might lead to durability concerns, but he also receives plaudits for his makeup. He an easy 55 for me, maybe more.


Brendan Rodgers-SS
Rodgers doesn’t have the same high floor profile as Ruiz and Honey, which is why I’ve knocked him down here. The tools are still pretty damn great: above average bat, above average power, and now the fielding ability to play SS. He’s gained versatility in playing SS, 2B, and 3B, which gives the Rockies a lot of flexibility as they have a lot of infielders coming up. Again, the key with Rodgers is that he needs to tone down his aggressiveness, because AAA and ML pitchers won’t be as kind to him as the lower minors were. There’s a chance Rodgers bat is diluted by his aggression, resulting in a lot of K’s and weak contact, but the upside of a SS with pop who plays in Coors is too much to ignore. I project him as an above average league regular, whose season by season performance will fluctuate quite a bit.


Kyle Wright-SP
Wright has the classically ideal pitcher’s frame, and his polish and college performance made him an easy choice for the Braves at the 5th overall pick. His 2018 year was a bit uneven (walked a bit too many batters and left some easy to hit balls over the plate a bit too many times), but the stuff is still quite good, despite lacking a true out pitch. His fastball and slider both receive 55-60 grades, depending on what day you see him, and his changeup has progressed well enough to be a 3rd option. Command still bedevils him a little bit, and it might never be more than fringe average, but the profile, frame, athleticism is all good enough to project a little bit more, which should make him a mid rotation starter. Right now, Wright is more of a #4 starter, and that means he might not start for the loaded Braves rotation until 2020.



Yordan Alvarez-1B 
Alvarez ranks the lowest of the Angels big 5 because as a 1B, he has the highest floor to clear, and his athleticism grades below average for me, unlike the first 4 guys here. He’s a bit stiff in the box at times, but the power here is real, and impressive -- he should hit for 30 HRs in the bigs if everything clicks, and his general feel for the zone and hitting all project above average. At his peak, he can be a 300-25 HR hitter, but his approach isn’t elite and his hulking frame doesn’t lead to quite a few K’s, so he’s hardly a guarantee. Injuries to his wrists and knee have kept him to half seasons the past couple years, and guys with kind of his frame do age poorly, so we’ll have to keep that in mind. But if all goes well, his peak should be very, very good, and he’s an easy top 50 prospect for me.


Shaun Anderson-SP
Anderson’s arsenal is deep, but only slightly above average when you consider the quality of his pitches. He’ll show, at times, a plus slider and fastball, but they don’t always consistently up to that. His change and curve have progressed slowly to average pitches, but they need further work to give him a solid 3rd option at the ML level. His frame is strong and durable, and he gets 55 grades for his command, and it all plays up a bit due to deception in his delivery. It everything clicks, he’s a #3 starter, but the lack of an out pitch might relegate him to a backend role.


Luis Santana-2B
Santana got some divisive reviews, depending on how much you believed his performance was sustainable in the major leagues. He mashed this year in the Appy Leagues, and while small, punched quite a pack with his bat. He made consistent hard contact and has great feel for hitting with exceptional bat to ball abilities. And while his power will probably only ever be gap power, his ability to barrel balls maximizes his below average raw pop. His approach is great, leading to more walks than strikeout. Physically, he’s all maxed out which means what you see is what you get, but he can play at 2b and 3b, although he’ll never be mistaken for anything other than passable there. His arm has gotten reviews from above average to below average, which will be important to his future profile because if its strong, he can be a versatile, punchy super sub, but its weak, it’s probably a 2B or bust profile (He won’t play well in OF given his stocky build and range). To be a regular, he’s going to have to show a 6 bat, but I think he’s proven so far he can do that. He projects as a league average regular, but there’s significant time horizon and body risk.


Anthony Kay-SP
Kay’s arsenal is a bit dull (average across the board with his FB, curve, and changeup), but he’s still only a year away from full recovery from TJ surgery. If his stuff ticks up a little bit, we’re looking at a #4 starter who’s buoyed by his feel for pitching and polished command.


Adam Haseley-OF
Haseley finally started showing off some power this year in AA, albeit at 22. His swing is still geared for flat line drives instead of flyballs that can maximize his average raw pop. He’ll show a good feel to hit, and has a very good eye at the plate, and a lot of people still believe he can turn into a league average hitter. But he’s a fringey defender at CF, and it’s generally considered that he’ll fit better into LF, where’s his 55 speed will serve him well. To be a regular, he needs to hit for more power than the scouting community thinks he’ll top out at, or he’ll need to make it stick in CF. He projects as a slightly below league average LF, or an overqualified 4th OF.


Sheldon Neuse-3B
Neuse got hammered in AAA this year, but adjusted well and finished the year well. His ability to pop up again on his feet after an ice cold start to the year impressed scouts. His hit tool is still fringey, but his arm should be strong enough for him to be passable at 3B, and he projects to have plus in game pop. He looks like bench power bat for now, but there’s significant risk he won’t ever hit enough in the ML’s. He’s blocked in Oakland by Matt Chapman, so he’ll have to find a new position or a trade to get fantasy relevance.


Zack Thompson-SP
Thompson is a UK pitcher that is projected to go in the first round this year, but while his stuff is promising for a lefty (4 above average pitches, at his best), his big frame sometimes make it hard for him to repeat his mechanics, so he isn’t always on his best when you see him. Assuming he stays healthy (and he did have an elbow issue last year) he projects to go in the late 1st round as a potential mid rotation starter.


Colin Poche-RP 
Poche generates significant buzz with his loony stats in AAA this year. Based on pure stuff, it’s really just middle RP territory. He has a decent low 90’s fastball, an above average curve, and an average slider. But what separates Poche from others is his ability to deceive batters with his fastball, which earns double plus marks for its swinging and missing rate. He loves to hide the head behind the ball when pitching, which makes hitters super uncomfortable as it comes out, leading to a sort of invisiball trick. The perceived velocity, in essence, plays much higher than the low 90’s its reported in. Furthermore, it’s one of those rising fastballs, that also gets popups and lazy flyouts. In essence, Poche is one of the most frustrating pitchers to hit in all of MILB, and will be a hellish at bat in the majors if his deception continues to work up there.


Eddy Diaz-SS
One of the more interesting IFA signings from the Rockies 2017 class, Diaz is the first Cuban signing in Rockies history. He has 70 speed, and a good feel for hitting line drives into the gap. He’s got a good approach too, and while power is never going to be part of his game, it won’t matter because he does everything quite well. He projects to shift to 2B, and is a sleeper to keep an eye on. He signed for $750,000 last year.


Pedro Avila-SP
Avila has interesting stuff (plus curve, above average changeup, low 90’s fastball), but he’s 5’11”, has below average command, and was hit around this year as a 21 year old in High A. If the command progresses, Avila could profile as a backend starter, but I’m not a fan of short pitchers unless they have knockout stuff. Avila doesn’t possess that.


Nick Sandlin-RP
Sandlin is probably RP only, but his submarine delivery helps his above average fastball and slider play up. He has unusually good command for a guy with that delivery, and projects as a fast moving RP who can go multiple innings.



Sandy Gaston-SP
One of the most highly regarded pitchers in this year’s IFA class, Gaston will show elite upper 90’s velo, which is insane for a 16 year old. However, he lacks a reliable secondary, and his control is completely absent at times, as he’s prone to wild pitches. He signed with the Rays, and is a long term developmental projects.


Michael Perez-C
Perez is a solid defender at catcher, and has a good line drive swing that offers little power. He projects as a well rounded backup.


Cameron Bishop-SP
Bishop is an arm strength lottery ticket from the left side who can do little else, and he probably projects to the BP unless his feel for pitching significantly picks up and his secondaries tick up at maturity.

Juan Uriarte-C
Uriarte had a good year in the Appy league in 2017, showing feel for hitting and moderate power, but no one’s sure if he’ll stick at catcher. He broke his leg early this year and went on the DL all year, so he’s playing catch up now.

Morgan Cooper-SP
Cooper has backend stuff, but injuries and questions about durability have held him back his entire career. He’s 24 now, and will start in A ball next year.



Sleeper
Lun Zhao-Sp

Zhao throws in the low 90’s as a 16 year old, but no one expects his velocity to tick up much more with his 5’10” frame. But he possesses an elite curveball, that gets anything from plus to double plus grades, and is probably the most talented Chinese prospect in baseball now. His command is raw, but he’s got an interesting base of talent for someone so young.


Summary
I’ve seen authoritarian regimes more equitable than this. The top 5 guys in this farm are as good as any (all should fit within the top 50), but there’s a considerable drop off after that. Anderson and Kay project reasonably as #4 types, and Santana is intriguing for his bat to ball ability and ability to play up the middle, but the guys below that are far flung lottery tickets (Zhao, Gaston), role playing types (Neuse), or RPs (Poche, Avila, Sandlin). Thompson is the lone exception as a possible late 1st rounder.

But a lot of the farm was stripped of its talent in win now moves. In recent weeks, here’s who John’s traded away (in order of FV)

Keston Hiura-2B
Hunter Greene-SP
Ke’Bryan Hayes-3B
Victor Victor Mesa-OF
Adonis Medina-SP
Tristen Lutz-OF
Albert Abreu-SP
Mitchell White-SP
Tyler Stephenson-C
Tj Freidl-OF
Kyle Funkhouser-SP
Kevin Gowdy-SP
Junior Santos-SP
Jose Rodriguez-C
Ronnie Dawson-OF
Kevin Maitan-SS
Victor Garcia-OF
Gilbert Lara-SS
Scott Blewett-SP

That is legitimately a top 10 farm just by itself. Angels would have probably ranked in the top 4 if things were kept the way they were, but I understand the win now moves made.

[Rays GM]

10. Oakland Athletics

1.Victor Robles-OF
2.Austin Beck-OF
3.William Contreras-C
4.Calvin Mitchell-OF
5.Shervyen Newton-SS
6.Max Fried-SP
7.Dennis Santana-SP
8.Carlos Vargas-SP
9.Ryan Rolison-SP
10.Osiel Rodriguez-SP
11.Willi Castro-SS
12.Josiah Gray-SP
13.TJ Zeuch-SP
14.Vladimir Gutierrez-SP
15.Landon Leach-SP
16.Will Craig-3B
17.Jose Lopez-OF
18.Jairo Solis-SP
19.Marcus Wilson-OF
20.Daulton Jefferies-SP
21.Aaron Civale-SP
22.Zac Lowther-SP
23.Daniel Cabrera-OF
24.Ryan Jeffers-C
25.Nick Nelson-RP
26.Ryan Castellani-SP
27.Thomas Burrows-RP
28.Branlyn Jaraba-1B

Victor Robles-OF
Robles draws comparisons to Lorenzo Cain for his elite defense, speed, ability to hit, and hit with power. In other words, Roble is the true 5 tool player, a distinction that gets thrown around too often. He projects as a plus hitter with average pop who can steal 40 bases per seasons, and is a definite CF who consistently makes highlight reel plays with his arm and legs. And while he doesn’t walk a ton (his only offensive flaw is he’s a bit too aggressive at time), he likes to crowd the plate, resulting in an inordinate amount of HBP’s. He has dealt with a few minor injuries over the past few years due to this tendency and he might be a little more injury prone due to his all out playing style, but he’s universally regarded as a top 5 prospect.



Austin Beck-OF
Beck’s 2018 season wasn’t impressive on a cold, hard hitting statistical level, but he was 19 playing in the notoriously pitching friendly environment of the Beloit Snappers, and his rawness was always going to mean a slow burn to the minors. But he showed better than expected feel to hit this seasons, and reports came back still glowing about his athleticism, and he should stick in CF. More interesting was a complete lack of power, which was one of Beck’s calling card as he rose up the HS ranks his senior year. He’ll need to flash more of that next year in High A, but considering power generally comes last in raw prospects like him, I wouldn’t worry too much yet.

William Contreras-C
One of the most athletic catchers in the minors, Contreras is perhaps one of the best two way catchers in the minors. Unlike other herald catching prospects in the minors, Contreras has a very good chance to stick behind the plate, and his makeup and work ethic give the sense that he’ll willing to work to stick behind there. At the plate, he’s got a violent, albeit more controlled swing that resulted in a breakout 2018 season in A ball, and he get to his above average raw pop well in games. He’ll need to continue working on toning down his aggression at the plate, but he’s only 21, so there’s time.

Calvin Mitchell-OF
Mitchell had a terrific year in A ball this year as a 19 year old, showing good bat speed, an understanding of what pitches to drive, and has been praised for his plate coverage. But its unlikely he develops anything more than average raw pop, and considering he’s a ho-hum athlete with a meh arm, he works better in LF for now. There’s significant tweener risk unless he develops a plus bat, but he seems well on his way to do so after a good debut year.

Shervyen Newton-SS
Newton was part of that loaded Kingsport team for the Mets this year, which had him, Luis Santana, Mark Vientos, and Jarred Kelenic. While Kelenic was considered a top 50 prospect, Vientos and Newton were in that second tier down of fringe top 100 guys, although Vientos was a bit more acclaimed. Still, Newton has more intriguing upside as a SS who’s an athletic diety, who projects to have plus power while having a decent chance of sticking in the middle IF. He switch hit too, and even if he shits to 3B, the power will more than play there. The only question is if he hits enough, and despite a good year in the Appy league this year, swing and miss issues remain abound for him. I’m hedging my bets here that he stick at SS, and the swing and miss issues won’t matter in the end based on sheer raw talent. He can be a star.

Max Fried-SP
Fried would be a key focal point on most pitching staffs, but on the Braves loaded pitching roster, he gets lost. His stuff is still ace caliber tho. He’ll show an elite 70’s slider that owns fools, and his fastball and change both flirt with plus, but probably settle in at a little less than that. His inconsistency, slew of nagging injuries, and below average command has attached a lot of relief risk to him. I would say he should be continued to develop as a SP, but the Braves are competing now, and as the game continues to blur the SP and BP role, Fried can served as hybrid pitcher who can dabble in both. His stuff is too good to be kept in the minors, and I expect him to start in the ML this year after pitching well in relief for the Braves in 2018.


Dennis Santana-SP
Santana commands a plus fastball and slide combo that are hell on right handed hitters, but there’s questions if his changeup will ever become average, and his delivery is a bit forced so there’s uncertainty about whether he’d be better in a bullpen or starting role. His proximity and chance to start pushes him up the list, but there’s a pretty good chance he’d slide into an shutdown reliever.

Carlos Vargas (CLE)-SP
Perhaps the most talented pitcher on this list, Vargas will show, on his best days, a fastball that touches 100 MPH with a slider that’ll flash plus plus. He’s athletic and bouncy, and will even reveal a power change to a poor soul that still has to contend with his two other elite pitches. There’s obvious significant RP risk here because he’s inconsistent, still in rookie ball, and his delivery is a bit strained, but I love guys with world class arm talent, and this guys has it in spades.


Ryan Rolison-SP
Rolison lacks the exciting talent possessed by the two pitchers that bookend him on this list, but he’s praised for his mound presence, durability, command of his fastball, power curve, and feel for a changeup. Still, the stuff isn’t always consistent, and he needs to develop better feel for his changeup to make it a SP, especially in Coors field. He projects to move fast as a #4 starter whose profile is almost complete, but needs a bit of shining to fulfill it.

Osiel Rodriguez-SP
Osiel, otherwise known as my favorite fucking prospect from this year’s IFA class, holds a few remarkable qualities as a 16 year old pitcher. He already touches 96 mph, throws a power slider that’s his out pitch, varies his arm slot to get different variations on his pitches, and has feel for up to 5 different pitches (FB, SL, CH, SPL, CB). His unorthodox delivery causes some concerns, but I feel it plays up his deception and gives him a different look. He’s also incredibly advanced for his age, and projects to move quick for a teenage arm. Obviously, we’re talking about an IFA pitching spec, so the risk is considerable, but he’s perhaps the most talented IFA arm I’ve come across in the past few years. He might start in the GCL or Appy league next year, as the Yankees are aggressive with their advanced IFA guys.



Willi Castro-SS
It was a disappointing year for Castro, who struggled with his way to swing happy approach at AA and AAA. Still: He’s a true SS with great bat to ball ability, who can run and has some decent gap power. I worry a lot about his approach because it’s held him back from his true ceiling, but he’ll still be just 22 in AAA next year. He has plenty of time to right the ship, and projects as a super utility player/low end regular at the highest level.


Josiah Gray-SP
Gray is just okay on the surface: Mid 90’s fastball that he locates well, above average to plus slider on his best days, feel for a change, but still below average now, below average command. But Gray has just started recently pitching after hitting for most of his life, and he’s already shown better feel for pitching than expected. There’s a good chance there’s a lot more growth coming in the future years for Gray, so he might outstrip his current backend/late inning RP projection.

TJ Zeuch-SP
Zeuch thrives on GB’s and limiting HR’s, which is aided by his sinking fastball and his above average curve. It’s not a profile that generates much K’s, but his polish and feel for pitching leads to a greater than the sum of his parts scenarios. He’ll start in AAA next year with a chance at the major leagues mid season, but he first needs to throw his changeup with more confidence, because right now, he’s a two pitch pitcher who doesn’t really fool hitters.


Vladimir Gutierrez-SP
Guti is a bit short, but he’s a top end athlete who has an elite curve, and despite his lack of low end velocity, his changeup has progressed well since he signed a few years ago. I like to bet on athletes, so projecting him as a #4 starter is reasonable. But it’s pretty fringey, because if the 3rd pitch never comes, he’s a BP arm.


Landon Leach-SP
Leach is your typical, athletic, big framed lottery ticket pitching prospect. The Twins have been treating him with kid gloves right now so he’s been pitching limited in the GCL, but he can touch the mid 90’s with his fastball, and he’s projectable enough that you can dream on his average stuff ticking up a bit as he gets reps and develops more feel for his other pitches. His ceiling is a mid rotation starter, but he’s a long ways away.


Will Craig-1B/3B
Craig probably isn’t a 3B anymore given his poor range, but he saved his career by tweaking his swing and approach this year and hitting more flyballs than ever. He’s much more aggressive, willing to turn on pitches he likes, and he struck out higher than usual this year, but as a 1B prospect going forward, this newly found above average to plus power might be enough to profile as a low end regular if he hits enough. It’s a profile that’s on the fringes, but he just might make it their given his makeup and ability to adjust.

Jose Lopez-OF
Lopez is a pretty interesting IFA prospect who has a great knack for hitting and should stick in CF given his plus athleticism, but pro ball is going to have to remodel his unusual swing which will leave him exposed to pro ball pitching. I like him a lot tho, because athletic guys who have great feel to hit, can show some pop, and play CF are hard to find.



Jairo Solis-SP
Solis was billed the big sleeper in the Astros farm this year, but had TJ surgery that ended his full season debut as an 18 year old in A ball. When he was on, he showed a good hard fastball that rode into the mid 90’s, a hard slider that’s his out pitch, and a new changeup that showed some interesting downard action. He gets raves for his makeup, and has oft been compared to another advanced former Astros arm, Franklin Perez (Although he’s even more advanced). He has the chance to be an impact mid rotation arm, but won’t be back until late 2019 or 2020.


Marcus Wilson-OF
Wilson has exemplary tools (plus speed, average raw pop, the ability to play CF), but he struggled mightily in A+ as a 22 year old, so statistically, it’s not great. But he’s coming off an excellent A ball season last year, and the Dbacks believe he was a bit unlucky this year, so there’s hope of a bounceback.


Daulton Jefferies-SP
Jefferies has a really promising profile (chance for three above average pitches, good command, good frame), but he’s pitched 20 innings in 3 years and has struggled with his recovery back from TJ surgery. Another high upside guy I like, but admittedly, there is a long way to go. Hopefully, he’ll be healthy to open in full season ball next year and pitch a full season.

Aaron Civale-SP
Civale has fringey fastball velocity, but has excellent command and pitched well in AA this year. His best pitch is a plus slider, but lacks another pitch that rounds out his arsenal. He projects as a backend starter/swingman.

Zac Lowther-SP
Lowther dominated A ball as a 22 year old this year, showing off impressive command of all his pitches to go along with a curve that gets swing and misses, but his odd arm slot (low three quarters) seems to baffle lower level hitters and make it appear as if the ball comes out of his hand faster than it really does. There’s some deception going on here, but we’ll see if if holds up at the higher levels. For now, I’m optimistic because he has feel for three pitches and can command it, so I project him as a backend starter.

Daniel Cabrera-OF
Cabrera has great feel to hit and good awareness of the strike zone, and showed that off in his freshman year at UCLA, winning a spot on the Freshmen All American Team. He has average pop, but his other tools are ordinary, meaning he’s a LF prospect. The bat is really interesting tho, and has him on pace to be a day 2 selection in the 2020 MLB draft.


Ryan Jeffers-C
Jeffers has big pop for a catcher, and his arm and fielding is fringe enough to play there at the position. The hit tool struggles with high end velo and projects as below average, but the baseline of tools is interesting. He went in the 2nd round draft this year.


Nick Nelson-RP
Nelson is a two pitch power Rp who has some control issues, but he’s already in AA and generates ton of ground balls, so there’s def a ML role for him somewhere.


Ryan Castellani-SP
Castellani looked like he might contribute to the rockies rotation soon this year given his 3 pitch profile, but his command profiles a 40 at best, and he was lit up in AA, which already was a repeat level for him. He profiles as an erratic RP.

Thomas Burrows-SP
Burrows was excellent in AA this year as RP, and profiles as a middle RP candidate with a good curve and provides deception from the left side.


Branlyn Jaraba-1B/OF
Jaraba’s body will shift him to 1B, but he has big pop and a playable bat. He’s a lottery ticket with a tough profile, but the power is impressive.

Sleeper
Tyrone Taylor-OF
Tyrone Taylor was a big spec once upon a time, but a couple lost years later, he was organizational filler. But a big year in 2018 sparked by a setup change that incorporated a leg kick infused new power into his swing. Given his ability to play across the OF, he projects as a 4th OF who can run, hit for pop, and be versatile. Intriguing!


Summary
Ludicrously fun farm to write about. Top 5 prospect at the top, couple more fringe top 100 guys with big tools, and a slew of raw, but highly talented arms in the middle. Even the guys at the bottom who are injured (Jefferies) or had a bad year (Wilson) have a reasonable shot at reclaiming their former prospect status. This is as toolsy farm as I’ve written about, and despite it being a little bit more shallow than the the next 9 farms, the upside is too much to ignore.



OSIEL!!!!!

[Rays GM]

9. Arizona Diamondbacks

1.AJ Puk-SP
2.Garrett Hampson-2B/OF
3.Nolan Gorman-3B
4.JP Crawford-SS
5.Cole Winn-SP
6.Zack Brown-SP
7.Luis Robert-OF
8.Brice Turang-SS
9.Taylor Widener-SP
10.Tony Gonsolin-SP
11.Anderson Espinoza-SP
12.Mauricio Dubon-SS
13.Shed Long-2B
14.Jorge Guzman-SP
15.James Kaprelian-SP
16.Franklyn Kilome-SP
17.Garrett Mitchell-OF
18.Thairo Estrada-2B
19.Greg Jones-SS
20.Jean Carlos Carmona-SS
21Forrest Wall-OF
22.Mickey Moniak-OF
23.Pavin Smith-1B
24.Brock Deatherage-OF
25.Jeremiah Estrada-SP
26.David Paulino-SP
27.Billy Mckinney-OF
28.Stuart Fairchild-OF
29.Nander De Sedas-SS
30.Kodi Medeiros-SP
31.Ibandel Isabel-1B
32.Cornelius Randolph-OF
33.Sam McMillan-C
34.Garrett Wade-Sp
35.Garrett McDaniels-SP
36.Kameron Guangorena-C
37.Ian Hamilon-RP
38.Bryce Montes de Oca-RP


AJ Puk-SP
Before undergoing TJ surgery, Puk gained serious buzz as the best lefty in the minors. He was impressive in Spring instructs for the A’s, and looked like he could make a serious impact for that team midseason. Alas, with the injury, he’s just now getting his feet back under him. At the time of the injury, he was showing better arm action and better feel for pitching, and he was projected to get to at least fringe average command. He has a double plus slider and fastball, and his elite downhill plane limits HRs. He has a fringe average changeup, and uses, but infrequently, a plus curveball. He projects as a #1 starter.





Garrett Hampson-2B/SS
Hampson was a great coup in the Degrom trade. He projects as a super sub, who can play all over the OF and up the middle IF. He’s twitchy and has plus speed, and makes consistent hard contact that results in a ton of line drives across the field. He’s shown great feel with the strike zone, and is a tough hitter to strike out, who’s also willing to take walks to leverage his speed. He’s already made it to the majors, and I expect him to play all over and run up a high BA in spacious Coors Field.


Nolan Gorman-3B
Gorman fell in the draft due to concerns about swing and miss issues in the Spring, and the fact that his body backed up a bit, causing 1B risk. He mashed in the Appy league tho, and then hit hit way to A ball at the age of 18. Gorman’s swing is a bit long, which causes some K related risk, but the upside is a 50-70 bat at 3B, and that kind of upside is enough to push him into most top 100 lists.

JP Crawford-SS
Way too many people bailed on JP Crawford early, who has had some bad luck with injuries the past couple of years. It’s affected his play; when he came up as a top 5 prospect, he was praised for his terrific eye, feel for hitting, and modest power. None of that has materialized at the ML level, but patience is key with a guy like him. He’ll be only 24 for next year, and his profile still reasonably projects as a 5 bat with high OBP numbers with below average to fringe average power. There’s a chance, of course, that injuries are just a common occurrence with him, but he provides a high floor at the SS position.


Cole Winn-SP
Winn does everything you want from a HS pitcher except throw high end velo. He settles in the low to mid 90’s with his fastball, his 70’s curve gets plenty of 60 grades thanks its high spin, his slider is just a shade below plus, and a developing changeup flashes average. He has good feel for pitching, good command, the arm action is clean and the delivery is sound. HS pitching prospects suck and usually never get to their ceiling. Winn seems to be the best bet to do so.


Zack Brown-SP
Brown is a terrific strike thrower with a chance for three above average pitches (tho his changeup lags behind his fastball and curve a bit), and who’s not afraid to attack batters. He’s already ripped through AA this year, and is probably going to be up in MIL by midseason. He projects as a #4 starter.


Luis Robert-OF
Robert is tooled up, but it all plays down due to his rawness as a baseball player. Despite plus speed, he doesn’t seem to be a fit at CF thanks to poor reads, and his burgeoning power doesn’t show up as much as you want in games. He’s 21, and struggled a bit in High A, so I expect to see him back there again until he shows better polish as a player. He’s lost a lot of time to injuries, and that hasn’t helped with his development. He has a chance to be an impact power speed guy in CF, but there’s a long ways to go.


Brice Turang-SS
Turang was a popular 1.1 choice in the Spring, but fell due to a suddenly bizarre approach at the plate, that resulted in lethargic at bats and a loss for the feel of hitting. He then fell to the back half of the first round to the Brewers. In his AZL showing in the fall, he received praise for his mature at bats, but there’s wasn’t much power in his contact. He does everything reasonably well, and should at least profile as a utility man who can play all over thanks to his good fielding skills and instincts and provide high OBP and good SB counts (which is plenty valuable); but a bit more pop, or a reversion to his elite contact skills in HS, will make him a very good regular.



Taylor Widener-SP
Widener had a great year in AA, using a plus fastball and power change to lead the league in K’s, and his makeup, competitiveness all get positive marks. He needs to work on developing a third reliable pitch (perhaps a slider) to profile comfortable as a ML starter, but either way, he’s going to have a career as late inning pitcher, or a bulldog starter who’ll go after batters. He’ll open 2019 in AAA.


Tony Gonsolin-SP
Gonsolin should contribute to the Dodgers rotation in 2019, because he has a ready to go 4 pitch mix that should work as a backend starter. It buoyed by a mid 90’s fastball that can flirt with 98 mpH, a plus curve that is his out pitch, and a newly found split that he’s incorporated and flashes plus. His feel for pitching comes and goes, and he does struggle with consistency at times. But considering he’s only been pitching full time for a couple years now (He was a two way guy in college), I think he’s worth waiting on as a potential mid-rotation starter.


Anderson Espinoza-SP
Espinoza has made it back to pitching, as he pitched in the Padres fall instructs late late season. He’ll open up healthy this ST, and there’s hope he can rediscover his form, which flashes three plus pitches with good athleticism. He projects as a mid rotation starter, but it’s wait and see until then.


Mauricio Dubon-SS
Jesus. That Thornburg deal has turned out awful for Boston hasn’t it? Dubon has terrific bat to ball ability with gap power, and runs well enough to be an asset on the basepaths. He can play 2B,SS, and I’d be intrigued by letting him play around at 3B and CF given his range and arm. He’s a versatile player who was mashing in AAA before an ACL injury, but should debut in the majors as ready made regular or super utility guy who provides well rounded impact.



Shed Long-2B
Long has a fringey profile (he might not stick at 2B) and the hit tool is below average at best, but he’s got terrific power for a middle IF for now, and that upside has gotten him on the top 10 for for numerous Reds lists despite a ho hum season at AA. Otherwise, if he shifts to the OF, he projects as a 4th OF that can pile up some steals and HRs.


Jorge Guzman-RP
Guzman’s control regressed after a breakout 2017, and his hunched, violent delivery has a lot of people pointing to the bullpen. He touches 103 as a starter, and his slider will (inconsistently) flash double plus, so if he pitches out of the pen, watch out. He’s one of the most popular candidates in the minors to be an elite closer at the ML level.



James Kaprelian-SP
Kaprelian has a near ideal frame (6’4”, 200 Ibs) with potential for 4 above average to plus pitches, but poor health has knocked him out over his career, and he’s pitched a little less than 30 innings over 4 years. But he made it back to fall instructs this year, so he looks healthy. This is a wait and see approach, just like Espinoza, but the health history is scarier, so I’m knocking him down here until then.


Franklyn Kilome-RP
Sigh. Another injured pitcher on this list. Kilome has three plus pitches in his fastball, change, and curve, and was making progress with his control this year in AA, but he had TJ surgery, wiping out the end of his 2018, and all of 2019. He won’t see the majors until mid to late 2020 at best, and it may take even longer (if ever) for his control to come back. The mets want to compete in this 2-3 year time frame, so I see him as a RP candidate who can breathe fire with a trio of pitches.


Garrett Mitchell-OF
In dynasty stash leagues, Mitchell has gained considerable hype as a future top 10 pick in the 2020 MLB draft. Blessed with premium athleticism and good power, Mitchell has played CF in his time at UCLA, and has flashed enough potential to be a dynamic 20-20 threat at the highest level. But he struggles at times with pitch recognition, and he had too much swing and miss issues as a freshman. He’ll need to show better hitting ability next year as a sophomore, to stay in first round conversation in 2 years.


Thairo Estrada-2B/SS
Estrada suffered a gun injury to the leg this year, rendering him inert for much of the season. Thats a shame, because he’s an incredibly well rounded middle IF prospects. He’s show good feel for the barrel leading to high average, has surprising sock in his bat despite his size, runs well, and is versatile enough to play across the infield. That’s really good, and considering the yankees are now loaded in the IF, he’ll need that versatility to break in the rotation. I think he can do more tho, and deserves a trade elsewhere to realize his full projection as a ml average regulr at 2B.


Greg Jones-SS
Jones has monster tools for a switch-hitting college SS (70 speed, future projection of average raw pop), but there’s significant risk given he’s a bit choppy in the middle IF and might profile better in CF, and he swings and misses quite a bit. He’ll be a sophomore this year, who can enter the draft a year early this summer. He has the tools to be a star, but like Mitchell, he lacks the ability to hit to project comfortably as a regular.




Jean Carlos Carmona-2B
Carmona is an interesting rookie ball middle IF in the Brewers system, who’s known for his power focused offensive profile, but whose body has filled out quickly. He’s twitchy, and considered a plus defender at 2B, which is good, because his swing is rough and unpolished and his power is merely above average. He’s going to need to work on his swing to profile as a regular, but even if he doesn’t, he’s good enough as a defender to work as a utility guy.


Forrest Wall-OF
Wall profile as a 4th OF who can show a good feel for the bat and spray line drives all over, but we’re talking about well below average game power that does limit the upside here. He played 2B before, and could fit in CF and LF, so there’s some good versatility here.


Mickey Moniak-OF
Halfway through his season at High A, Moniak was slipping into non prospect territory, with evaluators praising his defense, then politely following the golden rule and not commenting on his hitting acumen. He was getting blown up by low minor velocity, and was hitting for little power, and frankly, little contact. But a midseason adjustment of altering his batting stance and being more selective in choosing which pitches to drive resulted in more power and saved an otherwise mediocre season. Moniak still doesn’t do anything plus -- even people who buy in to his changes don’t see more than an average hit, average pop combo -- but that might be good enough to profile as a low end regular at CF with his 55 speed. Realistically, given his struggles, you’d project him as a well rounded 4th OF. He needs to get physically stronger to take the next step in AA.



Pavin Smith-1B

Smith is incredibly passive, and that undersells his power, which already is below average for a heralded 1B prospect, and his bat doesn’t project to plus, which is what you’re going to need to profile at 1B if your power is that low. He controls the zone well, but outside of that, unless he makes a swing/approach tweak, it’s tough to see him profiling as a regular at 1B.


Brock Deatherage-OF
Deatherage is a terrific athlete who can play quality defense in the OF, but the profile is somewhat hampered by swing and miss issues. Still, he runs well and shows good pop as a CF, so this is a really interesting prospect who was a senior sign, and should open up in AA next year. He can be a big riser.


Jeremiah Estrada-SP
Estrada was injured the entire year, which is a shame, because he combines a nasty changeup with good velocity that holds in the mid 90’s. The control ain’t grand, and the curve is well below average, so he needs work to become a backend starter. But the floor is a 2 pitch reliever who can pump gas and make you look foolish with his change.


David Paulino-RP
Paulino has terrific stuff (mid 90’s fastball, plus curve, above average change), but he’s dealt with suspension and injuries the past couple years, causing his stock to fall from fringe top 100 guy to BP project. He doesn’t grade well with makeup or health, but there’s a ML role with this guy of arsenal.


Billy Mckinney-OF
Mckinney had a decent year in AAA, and has hit more flyballs over the year, maximizing his fringey power. He has real feel to hit, and is average everywhere else (speed,field, arm) where a 4th OF, platoon role might work for him. He might also hit his way into a regular role in LF, but that’s not incredibly likely at this point.


Stuart Fairchild-OF
Fairchild mashed in college, although evaluators were a little uncertain about the stats given he played in the friendly hitter confines of Wake Forest, but his defensive profile (plus run, good arm and range) gives him the ability to play all over the OF. He shows raw power, which is good for a CF prospect, but questions remain if he can hit enough to profile as a regular at the ML level. He was a bit old for A+ this year at 22 and struggled with swing and miss issues, and I’m inclined that the stock is ticking down a little bit more on him than last year. He projects as a versatile and well rounded 4th OF.


Nander de Sedas-SS
Sedas is going to FSU after a down senior year in HS, and with some people projecting he might stick at 3B. There’s flashy pop here, and he has a good arm, but swing and miss issues plus a possible huge shift downward in the defensive spectrum has me a little skeptical. We’ll see how he pans out in college.


Kodi Medeiros-RP
Medeiros profiles as a two pitch lefty RP option out of the pen, as his fringey control limits his once appealing profile.


Ibandel Isabel-1B
I have to put Isabel on this list here, because he has true 80 raw power, but he’s almost 24 and was hitting against 20 and 21 year old pitching this year. Pass.


Cornelius Randolph-OF
Randolph lacks the defensive versatility and speed to stick in anywhere but LF, and his below average pop has most people skeptical he can profile. He better, because while he shows good enough feel to hit for a good average in the majors, he doesn’t offer much offensively beyond that. He projects as MILB depth.


Sam Mcmillan-C
McMillan showed good feel to hit with strong defensive skils last year, and was billed a sleeper coming into this year. Then he hit .158 in Low A. He just turned 19, so give him time, but he’s a long term project. Given the low bar of catchers in the majors, I have him as a future backup.


Garrett Wade-SP
Wade lacks high end velocity (high 80’s, low 90’s on his fastball) and projection, but he posted plus spin rates on his fastball and slider in HS, and has a pretty delivery. He’s committed to Auburn, and his feel for spinning pitches as a lefty is intriguing.


Garrett Mcdaniels-SP
Mcdaniels lacks the spin rate mastery of Wade, but is more projectable and already sits in the low 90’s, and features more athleticism. He’s a bit rawer, but the upside is a fair bit more intriguing than Wade. He’s headed to Coastal Carolina.


Kameron Guagorena-C
Guagorena has a great catcher’s frame with a plus arm that should stay back there for the time being, and his raw power projects as above average, but he has a long swing that needs remedying. He’s going to Cal State Fullerton.


Ian Hamilton-RP
Hamilton dropped in the draft his junior year after struggling in the rotation, but he has a dynamite fastball coming out of the pen with average secondaries. He could be a good middle RP prospect.


Bryce Montes de Oca-RP
Oca was a famous HS picher who was also the valedictorian of his HS, but he passed after being drafted by the White Sox, and went to UMIss. He passed again after being drafted by the Nationals his sophomore year, and finally went pro when the Mets took his this year. He’s had TJ surgery and ulnar repairment surgery, but he stands 6’7” and will touch 100 MPH as a reliever with a plus slider. He struggles with inconsistency, and has a bad healthy history, but the stuff screams late inning relief.


Sleeper
Drew Jackson-SS
Jackson has a monster arm that plays well across the IF and has plus speed, but the bat is below average and offers moderate pop. He profile as a utility guy, and there’s a chance his dip in GB’s in 2018 is a sign of a more flyball heavy approach that could yield surprising offensive results. He was selected in the rule v draft by the Phillies this year and flipped to the Orioles.


Summary
Outside of the top 4, this might be the deepest farm in ODC. It has potential high impact regulars at the top, a swath of high upside college players throughout, and a good well of prospects who profile well as impact role players or low end regulars. The Degrom trade was a big boon to this farm, and even though the ML team is coming apart at the top, there is a deep reservoir of talent coming up. This was the first farm that felt like a real life ML farm, with enough reasonable depth and top end power. In real life, this farm would slip into the top 10, maybe 5. As it is, it falls within the same range here.

[Rays GM]

8. Atlanta Braves

1.Eloy Jimenez-OF
2.Fernando Tatis-SS
3.Nick Senzel-OF
4.Jonathan India-3B
5.Sean Murphy-C
6.Ian Anderson-SP
7.Austin Allen-C
8.Kevin Smith-SS
9.Jared Oliva-OF
10.Zac Gallen-SP
11.Shane McClanahan-SP
12.Evan Mendoza-3B
13.Carlos Hernandez-SP
14.Jose Miranda-SS
15.Mike Shawaryn-RP
16.Ryan O’Hearn-1B
17.James Nelson-3B
18.Je’Von Ward-OF
19.Ezequiel Tovar-SS
20.Alvaro Gonzalez-SS
21.Kris Bubic-SP
22.Sam Keating-SP
23.Eric Jenkins-OF
24.Jacob Gonzalez-3B
25.Nick Ciuffo-C
26.Jacob Heatherly-SP
27.Jason Bilous-RP
28.Alfonso Rivas-1B

Eloy Jimenez-OF

Eloy has true 80 raw power, but unlike other guys with that ability (Ibandel, Alonso, etc etc), Eloy also has good plate coverage and consistently makes hard contact despite being over aggressive at times. This combination of average to above average feel to hit along with top of the scale power is an elite profile, and he’s probably ready to go as a ML regular at RF right now, given his plus arm strength. Peak Eloy will contend for HR titles, and be a fixture in fantasy baseball



Fernando Tatis-SS
Tatis has unreal tools for a SS prospect, with plus plus raw power and better than expected feel to hit for a teenager. He’s an elite athlete, with a rocket arm that plays well there, and his speed is plus when running the bases. In short, he’s an athletic marvel, and has the baseball instincts to back it up. As a 19 year old in AA, Tatis was a bit too over aggressive at times, but he’s smart and receives raves his for makeup, and CMON THE DUDE WAS 19 AT AA. He’s fine. He’s going to be a superstar.


Nick Senzel-3B/OF
Senzel struggled with injury this year, first missing time due to vertigo, and then ending his year early with a finger injury, but in between, he mashed in AAA. He projects to have at least a plus, if not double plus bat that makes consistent contact, and his power is projected to be at least average. No one doubts he’ll be an impactful hitter; finding where to play him is much more interesting. Much has made about Senzel’s future defensive home, as he’s flirted with 2B thanks to the presence of Eugenio Suarez, but he’s also played some SS and LF. At the very least, he has experience in multiple positions and can be moved accordingly. The bat will play anywhere, but i’ll be more valuable at 3B or 2B. We’ll see what happens.

Jonathan India-3B
India wasn’t really a huge spec until his junior year in college at Florida, but a monster year there put him as a possible top 10 selection. The Reds took him at 5 in this year’s draft, which is funny, because his scouting report is full of 5’s. There’s not one tool that stands out immediately with India, but there isn’t one weakness either. He has good feel to hit, and above average in game pop, which works because he’s a capable fielder at 3B who won’t be a liability on the basepaths. He has terrific makeup and good feel for the strike zone, which lets the whole profile play up. India is a notch down in comparison to the first three guys on this list, but he’s a more than capable prospect in his own right. He projects as a 55 at 3B in his best years, but probably settles in as a league average regular on most years.


Sean Murphy-C
Murphy is already 24 and just finished at AA, but ignore that. He’s a terrific defender behind the plate, with a strong arm that limits the running game. He’s also a well rounded hitter, with plus power potential, but isn’t a hacker: He struck out only 47 times this year at AA in 257 ABs, and show good feel for the bat. He’s perhaps the most well rounded catching prospect in MILB, and projects to make his ML debut late next year.


Ian Anderson-SP
Anderson isn’t spectacular, but considering he’s just 20 and already in AA, there’s a reason why he gets a lot of prospect love. He’ll sit in the mid 90’s with his fastball that gets plus grades, a plus mid 80’s changeup that’s regarded as his best pitch, and a curveball that can get inconsistent, as it fluctuates from plus to average. He has a pretty delivery, a good frame, and good command of all his pitches. If he stays healthy, I really don’t see why he can’t be a #3 starter, and as deep as the braves pitching is, Anderson is easily a notch above most.



Austin Allen-C
Allen is a fave. He’s got big pop for a catcher as he cranked 22 Hr’s this year in AA and I feel he doesn’t get enough love. He does strike out quite a bit and needs to work on his patience at the plate, but the defense has come on within the past year to be average to slightly below. Given the moribund nature of catchers in baseball today, I think he’ll land a significant role somewhere, although the Padres loaded catching situation might mean it won’t be in San Diego.

Kevin Smith-SS
Eh. Smith went bonkers in A ball this year, and people were pointing to his changed stance/approach from college as signs of breakout. I’m a little skeptical, mostly because he was 22 in A ball, and a promotion to A + saw a spike in K’s and exposed him a bit for his impatience. Still, the profile is a little intriguing given he projects at short, has average speed, above average to possible plus pop, and has made significant improvement with swing and miss issues in a short time. I don’t buy the hit tool completely and think he’ll be a utility guy (a very good one mind you), but it’s possible he improves more and becomes a low end regular.


Jared Oliva-OF
Oliva has terrific physical tools, blessed with plus power and plus speed, and his ability to play not only CF and other OF spots means he can at worst be a utility option. I don’t buy the swing yet, given it’s long leading to swing and miss issues, but he’s improved quite a bit since his days at Arizona, and on the strength of an impressive season at A+ this year, he’s looking more and more like a dangerous 4th OF type.

Zac Gallen-SP
An uptick in velo had Gallen pitching better than expected in AAA, striking out a surprise amount of batters that most didn’t see coming. Gallen’s arsenal is unexciting, but polished (cutter, curve, change all rate a shade below average to above average), but his excellent feel for pitching, good command allows it all to play up. This is a backend starter strictly, but he’s already done with AAA. He’ll contribute next year in the MLB.


Shane McClanahan-SP
McClanahan was bandied around as a 1.1 candidate in last year’s, but fought with his control and inconsistent secondary pitches all spring. The result was a slide to the back half of the 1st round, with a lot of skeptic looking at his health history (TJ) and poor command at times as reasons to believe he’s a RP candidate. The stuff here is exciting -- touching 100 from the left side, chance for two above average secondaires -- but the chance of him reaching his full ceiling (frontline starter) is slim. He projects as an inconsistent #4 starter who generates plenty of K’s, or a hellacious backend RP.


Evan Mendoza-3B
Mendoza is known for his plus glove and feel to hit, but his below average game power is going to be a tough profile. He can fit in at 3B and SS, and it would behoove the Cardinals to try him around in different positions because 3B is loaded in that system, and Mendoza probably projects as a productive and versatile utility guy at his peak. If he taps into a bit more power, he could be a low end regular tho.


Carlos Hernandez-SP
Hernandez has two plus pitches (mid 90’s fastball and power curve that generates oohs and ahhs), but he lacks a 3rd pitch as of the moment, and his command does come and go. He needs to work on consistency with his pitches to become a true #3 starter, but if it never comes, he profiles easily as an impact bullpen arm. But the Royals will take it slow with Hernandez, because this kind of overpowering stuff from a possible rotation candidate is rare.


Jose Miranda-SS
Miranda is a well rounded middle IF prospect who has feel to hit with surprising average raw pop. Known for his bat control, Miranda has lived up to that with a 10%K rate this year. While he won’t blow you away with his tools, he has good feel for the game, which helps it play up. He projects as a league average regular at 2B.


Mike Shawaryn-RP
Shawaryn has a mid 90’s fastball and a hard slurve, but doesn’t maintain his stuff well enough deep into starts and his delivery is highly strained. His changeup is a bit inconsistent, so there’s talk of shifting him into the BP where his stuff plays up. He could also profile as a swingman who can go multiple innings; there’s also the chance he profile as a backend SP, but he needs to work on his changeup more to get there.


Ryan O’Hearn-1B
O’Hearn mashed in the ML this year, but it came primarily against righties. He’s a nonfactor against lefties, and his swing will at some point leave him exposed to ML pitching. We’ll see how he adjust once pitchers adjust to him. He projects as a platoon bat.


James Nelson-3B
Nelson was incredibly impressive as a 19 year old in A ball last year, showing power and athleticism, with the chance for plus defense at 3B. But after an injured year in high A saw everything come crashing down, a lot of his profile looks a bit more shaky. The bat has swing and miss issues as his approach really hasn’t developed as expected, and the power is above average, but not plus. He needs to repeat high A again this year and show considerable strides in his approach, but the base tools are still promising. He still looks like a good regular at 3B if it all comes together.


Je’Von Ward-OF
Ward has shown surprising hitting skills for a guy deemed raw coming out of HS, as he had an impressive year in the Pioneer league. He posts plus run times and is as projectable as they come, with a lanky 6’5” and 190 Ib frame that portends average raw pop. There’s some regular level tools here, but he’s still a ways away. For now, he’s an intriguing lottery ticket.

Ezequiel Tovar-SS
Tovar was the top IFA Rockies signee last year, and he shows a patient approach at the plate along with plus bat speed and a pretty swing to make lots of contact. He’s more gap power now, but has the chance to grow into more power at maturity, but he’s a contact first guy, and will be that way for the foreseeable future. He’s been praised for his instincts on the field, but might shift to 2B given his average arm strength; on the other hand, his plus speed gives him the range to play either position. He’s fairly polished, and did enough in the DSL this year to continue moving his stock up. Look for him to be a riser next year.


Alvaro Gonzalez-SS
Alvaro is a polished IFA prospect in the Tigers system who’s similarly polished to Tovar, but lack his twitchy athleticism. He has a better chance at SS, but the offensive upside is capped a bit due to his lack of power. He projects as a glove first regular at SS.


Kris Bubic-SP
Bubic’s stuff fits in the backend rotation if his curve can gain more consistency, but questions about his fringey velocity (sits in the low 90’s) and wonky mechanics cause some RP risk. Most likely, to make it to a ML rotation, he’ll ride his plus changeup and improving feel for pitching. Otherwise, he projects as your standard middle RP arm.


Sam Keating-SP
Keating has fringey, low 90’s velocity but feel for a plus change and improving slider. His delivery points to a future in the bullpen though, and his debut year in A ball was a bit rocky.


Eric Jenkins-OF
The bat is well below average, but Jenkins has elite speed and fielding ability, so he looks like a future 4th OF who can rack up SBs.

Jacob Gonzalez-3B
Gonzalez has long levers which is going to necessitate some long term development to reach his potential, but he has impressive plus raw power and should stick at 3B. His pro career got off to a rocky start in A ball, but he’s got time to correct himself given he was 19 for most of the year there.


Nick Ciuffo-C
Ciuffo is a glove first catcher who has some impressive raw pop that he doesn’t get into games enough. He projects as a platoon catcher.


Jacob Heatherly-SP
Heatherly has a plus curveball and has been noted for his athleticism and holy crap he walked 40 guys in 38 innings this year. He projects as a two pitch RP at the highest level, but he needs big time work on his control.

Jason Bilous-RP
Bilous can touch 100 out of RP, and he slid in the draft to the 13th round because he struggled as SP at Coastal Carolina University, thanks to poor control. He needs further refinement of his secondaries (both hover at below average right now) to be a late inning RP.


Alfonso Rivas-1B
Rivas has terrific strike zone awareness and brings a good approach to the plate, but it’s below average pop for a 1B, which is a tough profile.


Sleeper
Mauro Bonifacio-OF
Bonifacio has freakish size and athleticism, with a surprisingly short swing given his size, which allows him to explode to the ball. But he struggled mightily in live pitching situations leading up to signing day last year, and only recently signed with the Yankees. He’s a lottery ticket tools goof who can fit in LF or RF, so he’s worth mentioning here. He was ranked 34th on BA’s 2017 IFA ranking.


Summary
The top 6 carries this farm, which is perhaps the best in the league. After that, you’re left with a mix of promising role players and lottery ticket types, which isn’t bad, but a bit of drop off is noticeable after the first few guys. Still, this farm has a lot of guys on the cusp of impacting the ML team, which is sorely needed after a moribund year in 2018.

[Rays GM]

7. Cincinnati Reds

1.Casey Mize-SP
2.Yusniel Diaz-OF
3.Gabriel Arias-SS
4.Austin Hays-OF
5.Brandon Marsh-OF
6.Brusdar Graterol-SP
7.DL Hall-SP
8.Elehuris Montero-3B/1B
9.Jeisson Rosario-OF
10.Peter Lambert-SP
11.Alexander Reyes-SP
12.Leody Taveras-OF
13.Eric Pardinho-SP
14.Trent Grisham-OF
15.Eduardo Garcia-SS
16.Alexander Ramirez-OF
17.Griffin Conine-OF
18.Kyle Muller-SP
19.Antonio Gomez-C
20.Sam Carlson-SP
21.Patrick Weigel-SP
22.Travis Blankenhorn-3B
23.Luis Escobar-SP
24.Jhailyn Ortiz-OF
25.Jorge Ona-OF
26.Jacob Pearson-OF
27.Adrian Hernandez-OF
28.Yasel Antuna-SS
29.Starling Heredia-OF
30.Brendon Little-SP
31.Adinso Reyes-3B
32.Eduarqui Fernandez-OF
33.Freddy Valdez-OF
34.Ynmanol Marinez-3B

Casey Mize
Mize was a strange candidate for the #1 overall pick, a Japanese like pitcher who relied on a devastating splitter and plus control to make batters look silly in college. He’ll also throws a fastball in the mid 90’s, along with an above average slider and changeup to mix things up. He’s as complete as a prospect as you’ll find, and even though he’s maxed out already and unlikely to improve much more, he projects to move quick as a immediate impact mid rotation guy, with peak years as a #2 starter.


Yusniel Diaz-OF
Diaz has an elite ability to put the bat on the ball and make consistent line drive contact, and his athletic gifts (good running time, good arm, twitchy) means he can play all over the OF, but expect the Orioles to stick him in CF where his value is maximized. His swing and setup at the plate needs a few tweaks as he is a bit raw, but he should be fine given his elite approach at the plate. He projects as an above average regular at the plate, but if he can tap into more power (his game power is just modest now), he can be an all star.


Gabriel Arias-SS
Fernando Tatis who? Arias is a SS prospect with a potential plus hit, average pop with plus defense at SS, which is a rare enough package. His smooth swing portends consistent contact at the highest level, and with some maturity should grow into 15-20 Hrs at his peak. Combine that with an incredibly advanced feel for the game (Arias opened this year as an 18 year old SS in A ball), and you have something special. Arias did struggle this year, but I wouldn’t worry too much. He’s a slow burn, but the Padres love him and won’t hesitate to push them if they see fit. He projects as an above average regular at SS.


Austin Hays-OF
Don’t give up on Hays just yet. He had some bad luck this year and got too aggressive for my taste as he tried to hit his way out of a bad year, but the tools are still very interesting (plus raw pop, good feel to hit, arm that fits well in RF, average run). I think he was simply frustrated being sent back down to AA after making his ML debut the year before, but a trip to AAA should clear his head a bit. He can be a star if he puts everything together, but his aggression will likely mean he always plays below that level. He projects as a frustrating regular, or a versatile 4th OF.


Brandon Marsh-SP
Marsh had his worst pro season this year, struggling to translate his plus raw power much into games. Still: He was drafted as a raw, athletic OF who can dazzle one day but struggle the next, and his record in pro ball still suggests he can bounce back. Marsh is a terrific defensive CF with a plus arm, and his power and speed combo makes him a very interesting prospect. He doesn’t have to hit much to be a ML’er, but he has a chance to be a truly special player given his broad tool set.


Brusdar Graterol-SP
Graterol was a non spec until TJ surgery a couple years ago; when he came he had added a whopping 60 Ibs and his stuff took off from there. Graterol has unreal stuff, a fastball that flirts with the high 90’s, and a trio of above average to average off speed pitches, with his best a hard mid 80’s slider. He does have that TJ in the past, and his size does lead to durability questions so we’ll slide if he slides to the BP, but his stuff is going to make him an impact arm either way.


DL Hall-SP
Hall was one of the most talented prep lefties in his class, and the Orioles scooped him up in mid 1st round. He has the whole package; athletic frame, future plus command, good mid 90s fastball that moves, chance for two above average secondary pitches. There were whispers of makeup concerns during his draft day, but they really haven’t resurfaced since then. If he stays healthy, and the Orioles don’t mess him up, Hall has front of the rotation potential.


Elehuris Montero-3B/1B
Montero dazzled his much older teammates in A ball this year as a 19 year old, showing off plus bat speed, good plate coverage, and impressive maturity to being named MVP of the Midwest League. He hits for power, and hits for average, and the bat is good enough to play everywhere at his peak. That’s good, because he might shift to 1B given his limited range and iffy hands, and with Nolan Gorman at 3B. To get to his ceiling as a quality 1B, he’ll need to continue improving his selectivity to maximize his impressive plus raw power, and watching his body to ensure it doesn’t outgrow even 1B.


Jeisson Rosario-OF
Rosario doesn’t offer much power, but he is a world class athlete who likes to do bat flips in the OF for fun, has plus speed, and elite bat to ball ability and strike zone awareness. It all adds up to a startling good profile resting on his elite OBP skills and speed, and with the hope that filling out his frame will result in more power. He can play CF for now, and depending on where the Padres want to play him, he can play all over the OF with his excellent range and arm. He is the kind of guy who is more valuable in real life than in fantasty, but I still think Rosario profiles as an above average regular at CF when it’s all said and done. He’ll open in High A next year as a 19 year old (!!!!).


Peter Lambert-SP
Lambert won’t blow you away with his stuff, but he has terrific pitchability and control. His 4 pitch mix also helps keeps batters off balance, and uses a plus curve most frequently to get his outs. He also has an above average changeup, which is an important pitch to have in Coors Field. He got knocked around in AAA, but he adjusted late to end the year well, and he never lost his feel for pitching. He projects as a mid rotation starter.


Alexander Reyes-SP
Reyes has world class stuff, but he’s missed two years now thanks to TJ surgery and lat surgery, so it’s time to maybe consider he isn’t exactly built to hold up to a rotation. It’s a shame, because he’ll throw high 90’s with two, maybe three plus secondaires, and his command was improving before injury. I have him projected to a BP, which he’ll be ready for in 2019, because I have no faith in his healthy anymore.


Leodys Taveras-OF
I’m losing my patience with Taveras, who hasn’t hit in two straight years. I will say he’s been pushed ultra aggressively by the Rangers FO, and played as a 19 year old in High A, which is not easy to do. Still, the reports that come back highlight his lack of impact contact, and note his strength is still below average. Taveras does have some very promising tools - Plus speed, elite defense at CF, good contact ability - but his ability to impact the ball when he does make contact has raised some red flags. There’s some obvious 4th OF risk, but I’ll give him time. Next year will be a huge year for Taveras. He projects as a low end regular.


Eric Pardinho-SP
Pardinho is a bit short yes, but he has advanced pitchability beyond his years (He opened in the Appy League as a 17 year old pitcher. When is the last time that has ever happened?), with the chance for three plus pitches, and already throws in the mid 90’s. He’s aggressive, smart, and has pitched on the biggest stage (He pitched as a 15 year old on the WBC for his home country, Brazil). He projects as a mid rotation starter, but is obviously very far away.


Trent Grisham-OF
Grisham has struggled in pro ball despite being heralded for his bat coming out of HS, mostly because he’s simply too passive at the plate and doesn’t seem to know when to turn on pitches. He’s now struggling with selectivity, and and unless he rediscovers that elite bat that made him a first rounder, he doesn’t project to be a big leaguer because his tools are ordinary, and he projects to LF.


Eduardo Garcia-SS
Garcia was an IFA spec in this year’s class, and projects to be a plus defensive shortstop, and has been praised for his hands and arm. He’s also uber projectable, and can turn into that rare breed of SS who can impact the game defensively but also offensively, assuming he grows into at least raw power, which is reasonable based on his frame.


Alexander Ramirez-OF
Another 2018 IFA spec, Ramirez was too young to sign on July 2, as he didn’t turn 16 until late August. As it is, he’s been praised for his hitting acumen and approach, and may project out to plus raw power with further growing. It’s a bat only profile given his otherwise ordinary tools and corner OF projection, but considering he was super young on signing day and has showed very polished offensive abilities, it might be smart to give him an aggressive ranking because he might be a special hitter.


Griffin Conine-OF
Conine was suspended 50 games for next year for testing positive for a stimulant. As it is, its been a bad year for him. An ice cold Spring led him to drop from a first round pick to a second, and despite his massive power which showed up at times, his swing and miss issues plus lack of plate coverage left him exposed in pro ball. He needs to make some adjustments to survive in the minors, because he’s a corner OF only.


Kyle Muller-SP
Muller isn’t sexy as a pitching prospect, but that’s okay. He’s a lefty with a big 6’6” frame, with feel for three average to above average pitches, with his best a pitch a changeup that gets plenty of swing and misses. There’s not much projection left for him, so his profile depends on how much his command improves (it’s below average now, but should improve to average) and whether his velocity gains this year (he touches 96 on his best days) are the new norm. He projects as as #4 starter.


Antonio Gomez-C
Gomez is an advanced IFA catching prospect with terrific feel for all fields contact and has a rocket arm that works well at the catching position. Combine that with elite pop times, and Gomez projects as a well above average defender at the catching position. He’s mostly gap power now, but projects to grow into average raw pop, but is more or a project offensively than defensively at the moment. I’d like to point out the Yankees have invested heavily in the catching position this year with picks taking Siegler and Breaux, and signing Gomez and Ramirez in IFA’s. The Yankees are excellent at developing catchers, which bodes well for Gomez’s future prospects. He projects as a league average regular at the catching position.



Sam Carlson-SP
Carlos was a polished HS RHP with feel for three above average pitches, but underwent TJ surgery last year and will be out until 2020. He’s got mid rotation upside if it all comes together, but we’re obviously in a wait and see approach.


Patrick Weigel-SP
Weigel is a big dude with promising stuff, with a power fastball that runs in the high 90’s, a 55 slider, and promising feel for a changeup that has come along quite nicely since he was drafted. Still, TJ surgery knocked him out for the end of 2017 and most of 2018, and he just got back to the mound. The command is fringey here regardless, so there might be a RP or multinning RP profile here, especially because he’s on a loaded Braves team. He’ll start in AAA next year.


Travis Blankenhorn-3B
Blankenhorn was decent as a 21 year old in High A this year, showing off that plus pop that got him drafted in the 3rd round in 2015, but his inability to draw much walks or avoid whiffs is getting increasingly alarming, and no one really believes he’ll stick at 3B, where his reaction and range are poor. He projects as a 1B prospect, but he’s going to have to hit a lot better to profile there.


Luis Escobar-SP
Yeah, Escobar probably won’t stick in a rotation given his poor command and mechanics, but he throws three above average to plus pitches, and profiles as a heatbreather in the late innings out of the pen. He’ll open in AA, with a chance to be fast tracked to the bigs next year.



Jhailyn Oritz-1B
Yes, Ortiz was only 19 in A ball this year, but he struck out 32% of the time, and the body’s backed up to a 1B profile. He has true 80 raw power, but given his swing and miss issues and now ugly profile, there’s extreme risk he never gets to his ceiling as a power first 1B at the ML level.


Jorge Ona-OF
Ona had a poor year in high A this year as a 21 year old, which isn’t good when you consider he probably can only play in LF given his mediocre range and arm. He projects as a league average hitter who can muscle one out with his raw pop, but his poor approach, feel to hit means he likely never hits enough to profile.


Jacob Pearson-OF
Pearson has interesting tools (chance to play CF, plus speed, average raw pop), but his ability to hit hasn’t manifested itself in games yet. He’ll be only 21 next year, so he has time, but concerns about him being old for his draft class are gaining steam now. He’ll start in high A next year.


Adrian Hernandez-OF
Hernandez is a physical lottery ticket who’s built well enough to play CF, but with enough mass to produce above average raw pop with surprising feel to hit. He does get over aggressive at times, but he played well enough this year in the DSL and might get an assignment to the GCL or Appy league depending on his spring instructs showing. He also runs well for his size, but might slow down to average run times, which might risk a shift to RF.


Yasel Antuna-SS
Antuna got pushed too aggressively to A ball this year and struggled. He has pop and is still fairly polished for his age, but no one knows if he’ll be anything more than a slightly below average hitter, whether he’ll stick at SS, and if he’ll come back fully healthy after having UCL surgery in late August. The upside is a well rounded SS, but there is a long way to go here, and the body has regressed a bit.


Starling Heredia-OF
Heredia had an ugly year in A ball, struggling with pitch recognition, swing mechanics, vision, etc etc. He’s insanely talented given his monster pop and surprising speed for his size, but as a hitter, he needs serious work. He was sent back to instructs this year after a bad debut in A ball, but hopefully he gets another shot next year as a 20 year old.


Brendon Little-SP
Little’s regressed stuff this year resulted in an ugly year in A ball, and he profiles as a middle RP option.


Adinso Reyes-3B
Reyes is famous for his shows at BP, where his raw strength outstrips most other IFA guys. But there are considerable swing and miss issues + pitch recognition issues, but his ability to play 3B gives him the edge over Eduarquie and Freddy here.


Eduarqui Fernandez-OF
Qui ranks above Freddy because he’s hit over power, and is physical enough to grow into more power as his frame fills out. Another IFA guy in Cody’s farm who’ll fit into a corner OF.

Freddy Valdez-OF
Valdez is a LF only guy, but he already stands 6’3” 212 Ibs with plus pop (and more to come) and comes with questions about his swing and miss issues and over aggression at the plate. The track record on IFA guys who are limited defensively and are power over hit isn’t great, but he’s a good lottery ticket.

Ynmanol Marinez-3B
Marinez was praised for his projection and athleticism in last year’s IFA class, but was noticeably raw hitting this year. He’s a project at this point.


Sleeper
Osvaldo Gavilan-OF
The Pirates love spreading their money around on lower ranked IFA guys who can hit, and Gavilan fits this profile. Signed for 700K this year (highest bonus in the Pirates class), Gavilan has good feel to hit, and very good range in CF despite his average speed. He’s a bit small, but has good gap power. He’ll need to work on his swing to be quicker to the ball.


Summary
El Cody’s farm is overflowing with international talent. Despite the farm lacking very much in high end, immediate impact players besides Mize, Hays and Lambert it is incredibly deep in latin american guys who while might be a few years away, have the talent to make the wait worth it. Meanwhile, the contingent of low level arms like Hall, Muller, Carlson, and Little all possess rotation upside, with Hall being the one with the best shot at a front of the rotation spot. It was tough choosing this farm or Kevin’s farm for the 4th spot, but the sheer upside of the bottom half of this list was too much to ignore. Viva la El Cody!

[Rays GM]

6. Toronto Blue Jays

1.Vlad Guerrero Jr-1B
2.Jesus Luzardo-SP
3.Sixto Sanchez-SP
4.Khristian Robinson-OF
5.Estevan Florial-OF
6.Jon Duplantier-SP
7.Adrian Morejon-SP
8.Luiz Gohara-SP
9.Tirso Ornelas-OF
10.Heliot Ramos-OF
11.Yu Chang-SS
12.Esteury Ruiz-SS
13.Ranger Suarez-SP
14.Jordan Yamamoto-SP
15.Greyson Jenista-OF
16.Lucius Fox-SS
17.Desmond Lindsay-OF
18.Yadier Alvarez-RP
19.Austin Cox-RP
20. Luis Arraez-2B
21.Larry Ernesto-OF
22.Marcos Diplan-RP
23.Harold Cortijo-SP
24.Wladimir Galindo-3B
25.Delvin Perez-SS



Vlad Guerrero-1B
Duh. 80 bat, 70 power, probably will shift to 1B given his weight and lack of caring about defense, but who cares? This is a generational bat, and crushed everything to oblivion in AAA this year. Will open up in the MLB next year, and is already one of the 10 best hitters on the planet. Sue me. He fucking mashes. No more words needed.


Jesus Luzardo-SP
Luz has shown better conditioning in pro ball, which has led to his stuff taking off. His velocity has now spiked into the mid 90’s, when it was low 90’s in HS, and he shows two plus secondaries in his curveball and change, and he has excellent feel for them, receiving several plus command grades. He’ll have a chance to start with the A”s MLB team in the rotation, considering how sorry it is, and he projects as a lethal #3 starter. His upside isn’t as high as Sixto’s, but Luzardo has shown better health and is already in AAA, so I bumped him up.


Sixto Sanchez-SP
One of the most talented teenager arms ever, Sixto has premium athleticism to go along with a fastball that touches 100 MPH, and is projected to have a plus curve and change at his peak. His premium athleticism also shows up in delivery, which is simple yet powerful, and helps lead evaluators believe he’ll get to plus command at his peak. The only concern with him is his size (6’0” 180 ibs) and a litany of health issues (elbow, neck, shoulder) that have sidelined him the past couple of years. Still, I think it’s hard enough to find a #1 starter in the majors, and Sixto has the chance to be that, so I’ll push him into the top 3, even though the risk level is quite a big higher here than for Vlad and Luz.



Khristian Robsinson-OF
Robinson, who looks like he should be playing D1 football for Alabama (and losing to Clemson, again), is a physical beast that is uncommon on the rookie level baseball fields. He’s got surprising plus speed for someone his size, and has double plus raw power that is very noticeable in BP. He’s also surprisingly polished for his age, showing quick bat speed and a mature approach that helped him play well in the pioneer league. There’s a lot of swing and miss issues here, which is fine as he wasn’t exactly exposed to elite amateur pitching in the Bahamas, and he has the plus arm that will fit really well in RF. He projects as an elite RF if it all comes together.




Estevan Florial-OF
Florial has loud tools (speed to be a plus defensive CF, quick bat speed that generates 55 power), but he struggles with making contact thanks to a long swing and meh bat control. He’s a mature hitter who can draw walks, and despite enduring a lost season thanks to a hamate injury, I’m still optimistic with him because he doesn’t need to do too much to be an impact ML player of some kind. Its likely he never hits enough to reach his all star CF potential, but he projects as a league average regular who can contribute in SB, HRs, and OBP categories thanks to a strong underlying set of skills.


Jon Duplantier-SP
Duplantier has everything you want from a SP prospect: frame, stuff (4 above average pitches), command, moxie, the smart to sequence pitches properly to maximise his arsenal, and pedigree. But he has a strange finish to his delivery that seems strained, and when you combine that with a history of being overworked in Rice and a lengthy injury record in pro ball, a lot of people are skeptical he’ll handle 200 inning workload. I think he get every change to start because he’s too good not too, but i think he’ll fit better in a multi inning rp role and dominate there. If he does stay healthy, he projects as a mid rotation starting pitcher. He’ll open up in AAA next year, with a good chance to be up in the majors in some capacity mid season.


Adrian Morejon-SP
Morejon has been sidetracked by a variety of ailments in recent years. Still, the stuff is rare for a lefty. He’ll touch the high 90’s with his fastball, and break off a plus curve that can make batters look silly. He also has advanced feel for a changeup that has strong fading action. He fights with his control at times, and even his most ardent supporters see really only fringe average command there in the future. But if it all clicks, he’s a #3 starter. He’ll start in AA next year as a 20 year old.


Luiz Gohara-SP
Gohara is ML ready, with a plus fastball that sits in the mid 90’s, and a lethal slider that's his main bread and butter pitch. But his command is sub-average right now, and he’s struggled a lot with injuries and personal related issues. He doesn’t get good reports on his makeup, which is something that could point to an early decline given his weight issues, but I’ll still put him on the top 10 here given his elite stuff for a LHP SP prospect and his proximity to the majors. He projects as a #3/#4 starter, assuming he’s in the right state of mind come Springtime.


Tirso Ornelas-OF
While putting Tirso above Heliot is a bit strange, I think Tirso’s bat give him better upside than Heliot, and his performance in A ball as an 18 year old outstripped Heliot’s. While still a bit raw, Tirso began to actualize his considerable offensive upside in an impressive showing in his full season debut. He has a pretty swing with elite bat speed that leads to plus raw power grades, and his feel for hitting and mature approach leads to above average grades for his hit tool. There’s a chance he might be LF only given his limited range and arm, but the bat is really impressive for an 18 year old,and it might not matter if he hits his ceiling. He projects as a league average regular in LF.




Heliot Ramos-OF
Ramos is the counterpoint to Tirso. More toolsy, with plus speed, a strong arm, and a decent chance to stick in CF, Heliot’s profile is more flattering and gives him a chance to be an all star player up the middle. I’m only going to hold him a spot under Tirso because the bat fell a bit flat this year in A ball, and his physical tools slid back a little this year. Still, he’ll start in A+ as a 19 year old next year, and if he hits, he can be an impact regular in CF. He gets comps to prime Carlos Gomez, and I think that makes a lot of sense at the moment.


Yu Chang-SS
Chang has good power for a middle IF, and has a chance to play at SS given his average range and 55 arm, but he doesn’t walk a lot, has too many swing and miss issues, and might have to shift to 3B or the OF in Cle. I think if Chang shows he can stick at SS, then I have no problem projecting him as an impactful, league average regular there. But the bat is fringey, and if he shifts somewhere else, it’s going to be really tough to profile.


Esteury Ruiz-SS
Ruiz is a punchy middle IF who isn’t afraid to rip it when at the plate, and has blazing speed that has eaten up the lower minors. It might not show in the statline, but he also has good bat to ball ability, and his heavy K’s is more due to his eagerness to chase pitches. This kind of approach might get exposed in the minors, but the fact that he can play up the middle, run well, and hit for average power is an exciting package, so he gets moved up here.


Ranger Suarez-SP
Suarez (and the guy below him) is the part where the farm starts to settle in less hectic outcomes. Suarez has an average 4 pitch mix that should be good enough for a #5 starter role, given his feel for pitching and ability to locate pitches. His stuff isn’t always consistent -- on his best, he looks like #3 starter, at his worst, it’s all flat and he gets lit up -- so it’s going to be up to Philly to see how they want to use him. Expect for him to compete for the last rotation spot in Philly, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Phils just stashed him into the pen where’s he much more consistent and let him work as a multi inning RP guy.


Jordan Yamamoto-SP
Yamamoto gets dinged down for his size and lack of a plus pitch, but I admit, I have a soft spot for the guy. He’s a grinder who isn’t afraid of attacking hitters, is smart and has terrific pitchability. His curve, slider, and changeup all work together to confuse hitters, and his excellent command means he rarely makes mistakes. It’s just too bad he throws 88 mph with his fastball, because the rest of the profile is super interesting. That lack of velo gives him zero margin for error, and it’s doubtful teams will trust him to start against ML batters who have adjusted to high 90’s velo coming at them. I have him as a swingman pitcher who can be a great change of pace guy, but there’s a slight shot he’s a #5 starter some years.


Greyson Jenista-OF
Jenista has a bit of an inconsistent track record thanks to poor mechanics at the plate, but he has real 60 power that shows up in BP, and he runs fairly well for a monster guy of his size. He has a pretty swing (when everything is clicking), and if the Braves don’t tweak with him, he projects as a 50 hitter with 50 power who fits easily in RF given his arm. The power will always play down because of his line drive swing, but it’s this peculiarity that gives his profile some stability. He projects, and I think pretty safely, as a league average RF.


Lucius Fox-SS
Fox has blazing speed that he used to take apart high A this year, but the bat is raw and the power is almost non existent. However, he has the glove to play SS well, and he’s a patient player who draws walks, so if you wait long enough, he profiles as SS who provides good OBP numbers and great steal rates. It probably won’t be in TB tho, where the glut of middle IFs blocks him from a role there. He projects as a super utility guy who can disrupt games.


Desmond Lindsay-OF
Lindsay has enviable tools (plus raw power, plus run, ability to play CF), but he’s suffered various ailments for his entire amateur and pro career, and the feel for hitting is merely below average. It doesn't matter too much I think. He can carve himself a role as a low end regular at CF given his abilities, and even if he doesn’t, there’s plenty of 4th OF jobs for guys as talented as this.


Yadier Alvarez-RP
Alvarez has monster stuff -- 70 fastball, 60 slider, 60 changeup -- but he’s struggled with injuries, and his makeup and intangible has been lambasted. He’s considered a poor teammate, and a me first guy. Normally, I don’t think much of this (there’s lot of divas in pro ball), but this has been repeated by each team he’s been on for 3 years, publicly, and his in game feel for pitching is bad, and his control is poor. He’s a douche, but he’s still a talented one. He projects as a monster late inning RP arm, but the risk is super high given obvious red flags.


Austin Cox-RP
Cox has terrific bat missing stuff from the left side (mid 90’s fastball, power curve) with good feel for pitching, and he can move very quick as a potential, dominant late inning arm.

Luis Arraez-2B 
Arraez has an elite feel to hit, which is he's going to have to ride all the way to the majors because he doesn't really have any game power, and doesn't run as well as you'd expect. Still, he hits from a crouched stance that makes it hard for others to strike him out (career 8% K rate) and adjust well game to game to pitchers. He's probably a bench guy, unless he shows elite BB/K and contact rates in the majors, which isn't impossible.



Larry Ernesto-OF
Ernesto is raw, but is a switch hitter with potentially 55 power and runs well enough to be a CF in the future, tho a shift to RF is also plausible. A lottery ticket who’s def more raw than his 2017 J2 partners, but the wait could be worth it.


Marcos Diplan-RP
Diplan has three plus pitches, but is 6’0” and his control is now fringey at best. He projects as a very good RP option who can go multiple innings, but the performance this year (74 walks in 118.1 innings across A+ and AA) is not good.


Harold Cortijo-SP
Cortijo was lauded for his athleticism and quick arm in the 2017 draft, but teams were skeptical of his secondaries despite mid 90’s velo. He was impressive in Low A this year, however, and if you’re a believer in Cortijo’s athleticism and give him the benefit of the doubt because he didn’t focus on pitching until late in HS, then you can project him as a future backend starter. It’s a long way to go, but his performance this year was definitely impressive, and put him on the map.


Wladimir Galindo-3B
Galindo has plus pop, but played poorly as a 21 year old in A+ this year thanks to bleh contact skills, and has a well below average glove.


Delvin Perez-SS
Perez has physically not looked the same since his PED suspension, and there’s a consensus that he’s a non prospect now with his bat being considered a non factor. But his glove gets plus grades, so there’s a future here as a glove first utility man.

Sleeper
Bladimir Restituyo-SS
Remember how I mentioned there were 4 big IFA prospects the rockies signed last year? This is the 3rd. Bladimir is the second best of the 4. He’s twitchy and athletic, with terrific bat speed and has a chance to play up the middle somewhere(probably 2B for now). He can run well and is projectable, although you’d expect the speed to dip to average with maturity. He was really young for his IFA class, and was 16 when the DSL season began this year, but showed enough in game performance to have some people notice. He is too aggressive at times, maybe fatally so, so he’ll have to rein it in as he ascends the minors. But the athleticism, projection, bat speed is all intriguing, and I think he has a chance to be a part of that glut of prospects in the Rockies lower minors that will make a real impact in the coming years.


Summary
Perhaps the thinnest farm in the top 10, but then again, none of the top 10 farms in here have Vlad. Besides Vlad and Luz, this farm is filled with boom or bust types, guys who are insanely talented but also have several red flags, whether it be contact issues (Heliot, Bladimir, Lucius, Esteury) or health issues (Duplantier, Sixto, Morejon, Lindsay). But I dig upside, so I’m going to push this farm into the upper echelon. I had a hell of a time deciding between Kevin’s and Sander’s farm, but in the end, Kevin’s farm was exceptionally deep, and despite not having Vlad, the top end of guys there in Miami are incredibly talented.

[Rays GM]

5. Miami Marlins

1.Taylor Trammell-OF
2.Austin Riley-3B
3.Triston Casas-1B
4.Nolan Jones-3B
5.Dustin May-SP
6.Colten Welker-3B
7.Triston Mckenzie-SP
8.Matt Manning-SP
9.Nick Solak-2B
10.Tony Santillan-SP
11.Jose Suarez-SP
12.Luis Alexander Basabe-OF
13.Michael Chavis-OF
14.Jean Encarnacion-3B
15.Oscar Mercado-OF
16.Matt Thaiss-1B
17.Orelvis Martinez-SS
18.Brock Burke-SP
19.Dillon Tate-SP
20.Dean Kremer-SP
21.Nick Allen-SS
22.Michael Gigliotti-OF
23.Jason Martin-OF
24.Ryan Mckenna-OF
25.Joerlin Santos-OF
26.Eduardo Lopez-OF
27.Starlyn Castillo-SP
28.Andrew Bechtold-3B
29.Jose de Leon-SP
30.Jose Albertos-3B
31.Freicer Perez-SP
32.Logan Warmoth-SS



Taylor Trammell-OF
Trammell’s year was a bit muted by the FSL, but he is the walking embodiment when an elite athlete starts to scrape their ceiling in baseball. An elite runner with an excellent grasp of the strike zone, Trammell amazed some people with his HR’s in the Futures Game, and there’s whispers of plus raw, maybe more power in him. He’s also shockingly polished for his age, with feel for hitting beyond what a former two way player is expected to show at 20. He does stilll have swing and miss issues he needs to correct but the upside here is a 6:6 CF with 7 run and elite fielding skills if everything comes together. Realistically, his arm might relegate him to LF, and the power might only ever show up in flourishes. Still, he projects as an All star LF who can impact the game in many ways, and hit leadoff with high OBP and SB counts. I’m very high on him too because the makeup reports are *glowing*.



Austin Riley-3B
Riley has relentlessly surprised me. He’s worked hard on his fielding at 3B and ability to hit premium velo, and it all came together in a monster 2018 campaign that saw him surge to AAA. He has easy plus plus raw power which should help him launch 25-30 bombs in the show, and he’s shown a better ability to keep up with heaters on the inner half of the plate this year, assuaging fears of if he’ll hit in the majors. The hit tool might never be more than average, but given his ability to stay at 3B and massive power, that really shouldn’t matter. He projects as an above average 3B, with peak seasons as an all star.

Triston Casas-1B
Casas has elite, light tower power, and was such a fearsome presence on the HS circuit that people started pitching around him. It didn’t give scouts a clean look at his hitting ability, and he did fall based on fears of hitting enough and the terrible track record of HS 1B in the past few drafts. Still, he’s reasonably athletic, has shown he can make adjustments, and is relatively polished for his HS class. There’s a chance he’s a plus hit, plus power guy at 1B, which would make him a very valuable MLB regular.


Nolan Jones-3B
Too many people sleeping on my boy Nolan Jones here. Remember when he got flipped for Maitan and half of ODC flipped their shit because Maitan was better? It’s worked out pretty well I’d say.

Jones has an elite approach, able to draw an insane amount of walks and work deep into counts, although the tradeoff is quite a bit of K’s. But he has plus power who can use the whole field to hit, although he will always be more power over hit given his feel to hit projects as below average. Additionally, during this past year, people were more confident he’d stick at 3B despite his monster frame, which had his stock ticking up a good bit, as some people feared he’d shift to 1B. I’m optimistic either way. Jones is a good power bat who will post high OBP numbers as a regular, and that kind of bat will stick at either corner position so long as he keeps his K numbers in check. He projects as an above average regular at 3B.


Dustin May-SP
May has a monster 6’6” frame, and as he matured this year, his velo started flirting with the upper 90’s, turning him from projection to dream on to realized top 100 prospect. He needs work on his secondaires (his best being a promising, but inconsistent power curve, another being an average cutter that has come along nicely), but his control is above average to plus. He’ll have a chance to open up next year in AAA, with a chance to be an impact mid rotation guy in 2020.


Colten Welker-3B
Welker has terrific bat to ball ability, and showed in winning the batting title for the Cal League this year. Right now, his power is more abstract than real, more Dali than Hopper. His swing is geared for line drives, but he has above average raw pop, so there’s hope he can tap more into it with his elite ability to barrel balls. Right now, he projects fine at 3B, and that should be enough for him to profile as a league average regular there, although there’s a chance to be more if his power comes.



Triston Mckenzie-SP
Mckenzie, who looks like he could slip through a sewer vent if he turned sideways, has always been about projection. As he’s matured his fastball has become a bit more livelier, touching the mid 90’s, and he has great feel for spinning his changeup and curve, providing him with a trio of above average to plus pitches to work with. He still has some growing to do, meaning we’ve yet to see the best of him, and he’ll open up new year in AAA. He projects as a midrotation starter, and possible something more if he fills out, but his lack of a strong frame raises fears he might not hold up to a starter workload.


Matt Manning-SP
Manning made real strides with his command and mechanics this year, cutting his walk rate into a more manageable number, and punched his ticket to AA. He has a power fastball that reaches into the high 90’s, and a hammer curve that’s his out pitch. I still think he’s a couple years away from reaching the show tho: His lack of a third pitch (his changeup is sub optimal now) hurts him, so he needs to show better feel to get there. But his athleticism, increased feel for pitching lends confidence he can. He projects as a #2 starter if it all comes together, but he more likely settle as a terrific mid rotation guy given the leaps he needs to make.




Nick Solak-2B
Solak was old for AA this year (24), but he has terrific strike zone awareness with plus feel for hitting, and has moderate enough pop to hit 10-15 HRs. He impacts the game on the basepaths with his plus speed, and is versatile enough to play 2B and LF, tho he doesn’t project to be more than average defensively in either position. I like him quite a bit, and projects as a league average regular at 2B, but the Rays insane glut of middle IF means he probably plays all around as a very good super utility guy. A fave.


Tony Santillan-SP
Santillan made huge strides with his control this year, with an impressive finish in AA. He projects now as a mid rotation starter with a high 90’s fastball and plus slider, to go along with a newly ascending changeup (average) and average command. He’s a good athlete, and has made consistent strides year in and year out since being draft. He’ll start in AAA next year, but expect the Reds to give him a shot in the ML. Their pitching sucksssssss. However, I’m only ranking him this high on the assumption he continues making small increments in improvement with his command. If he stagnates in the upper minors and majors next year, he might slide back once more into a late inning RP type/multi inning RP.


Jose Suarez-SP
A typical backend SP type in the Angels farm, Suarez has a high floor given he has feel for three pitches, his best being a plus changeup and fastball with cutting movement. He’s got a big frame that can handle 200 innings,and has good control. He’s ML ready, and is a #4 starter.


Luis Alexander Basabe-OF
Say what you want about the White Sox, but it feels like they hit on 3 contributors in the Chris Sale trade. Moncada is well on his way to being a league average or better regular, and Kopech, before injury, showed real progress with his command. In Basabe, they’ve found an incredibly raw, but toolsy player who’s finally clicking. He’s got plus speed, above average raw pop, and the ability to fit well in RF given his strong arm. This year, he actualized his tools into a career year in A+, earning a promotion to AA where he still hit well, but still suffered from mediocre bat control this year, resulting in poor K numbers. He needs to work on his swing to get to pitches more, but his patience at the plate, raw tools, and makeup point to an above average regular at RF.


Michael Chavis-3B
Chavis has a huge uppercut swing that produces plus power, but his overaggressive approach and fringey poor defense at 3B might relegate him to an average, probably slightly below average regular in LF. Even if he does stick, the Red Sox will look to trade him given they have Devers in the majors, Dalbec, Howlett, Nortchut, and Diaz in the minors. There’s also a concern that his PED suspension undercut his breakout 2017 year, and that his newfound power that year was a mirage. We’ll see how he handles AAA, because the league is a bit skeptical about Chavis right now.


Jean Encarnacion-3B
Encarnacion is a terrific, rangey athlete with big tools (plus power, strong arm, twitchy athleticism), but he’s incredibly raw at the plate, with a very aggressive approach that might sink him. Still, if it doesn’t, his feel to hit and his oozing athleticism is an incredibly interesting package. He projects as a league average regular, who does a bit of everything except gets on base, and annoys you with his streaky seasons.




Oscar Mercado-OF
Mercado was drafted highly as a SS, but after a couple moribund seasons, he was shifted to OF, where his bat blossomed, allowing his considerable tools (55 pop, plus speed, ability to play CF) play up. He’s made it to AAA, and given the woeful Indians OF, has a real shot to break into the Indians OF rotation next year. He needs to work on his pitch recognition, but he’s a wiry athlete with good bat control, so there’s hope he can figure it out, because the upside is an impact CF.


Matt Thaiss-1B
Thaiss made some tweaks with his setup and stance to produce more flyballs this year, and he did, posting career highs in FB rate and ISO in AA and AAA, and showed that elusive power that made him such an intriguing draft pick once upon a time. He still shows great feel for the strike zone, and above average feel to hit, and his glove will be a positive at 1B. There’s a tough profile to be a regular at 1B, but Thaiss is now on the fringes of being a regular if his power output wasn’t a fluke, which is much better than last year, when he looked like a quad A guy.



Orelvis Martinez-SS/3B
Orelvis got the top bonus in this year’s IFA class. He projects as a 3B as he matures a bit more, but he has the arm to stick there anyways. He’s athletic with great bat speed and promising pop, but there is some length here, and most scouts think he’ll need a tweak to survive in pro ball. He has good in game performance in his time as an amateur, and has the makeup, athleticism, raw hitting ability and power to be an impact prospect. He's one to watch.

Brock Burke-SP
Burke had as terrific 2018, showing elite extension with a mid 90’s fastball that generates ground balls and a plus changeup that’s his main out pitch. He needs further refinement of a curveball to be a solid rotation pither, but when he does, he projects as a #4 starter, assuming his control keeps coming along.


Dillon Tate-SP
I have less faith in Tate than I did last year, as the Yankees, who excel at pitching development, were seemingly okay with letting him go in a trade for a rental. Tate’s stuff was mostly flat during his time in Baltimore, and his inconsistency, frustrating game performance that doesn’t match up with his stuff (feel for three above average pitches with mid 90’s velo). He projects as a late inning rp, who can focus on his power fastball and slider combo to be an intimidating RP.


Dean Kremer-SP
Kremer throws two good pitches (mid 90’s FB, sharp curve), but his average changeup and fringe below average command means he’s probably a backend or swingman type. I bet on backend, given the gains he showed this year in pitchability.


Nick Allen-SS
Allen’s statline in A ball as a 19 year old this year was unimpressive, but his strong glove works at SS, and he physically looked good this year. There’s still expectation's that he’ll hit as he physically matures a bit, and that should be enough to be a ML ss, but more likely a low end regular or versatile utility man.
His glove, which is elite, will carry him until then.


Michael Gigliotti-OF
Gigs had his year ended early with an ACL injury, but in his pro debut year, he showed elite 70 grade speed, a good approach at the plate, and a quick swing that generated tons of contact. If his power ticks up, he can be a regular, but there’s a chance he profiles as a 4th OF who’s strapped by his lithe frame and little power.


Jason Martin-OF
Martin has average hit, average power, which might be enough to play in RF, where he’s decent enough to not be a liability. He runs well enough to profile in all OF positions, which is important because his bat is only on the fringes of profiling as a regular. He’s ML ready.



Ryan Mckenna-OF
I’m not a huge fan of McKenna because I feel the bat is fringey with some holes, but he’s shown surprising pop for a guy his size, and runs well plus plays an excellent CF. He might just be a low end regular, but he has a higher floor than a lot of these guys below him on this list.


Joerlin Santos-OF
Santos had a nutty year in the DSL, and the Cardinal fan sites were practically drooling over him, but he, like Malcolm Nunez, were probably a bit too physically mature for the DSL and were men amongst boys there, inflating their statline. But unlike Nunez, Santos has real, plus plus speed with the ability to play CF, and has shown a good feel for the strike zone with a quick swing. We’ll see how much of the power is real and whether advanced pitchers can expose his aggressive approach, but he can be a real riser next year.


Eduardo Lopez-OF
Lopez has a smooth, hypnotic swing that stings a lot of line drives, and he’s projectable enough where you can see his raw power becoming average. He might stick in CF despite his 45 speed because of advanced instincts, but might shift to LF or RF with time. He’s very much a “feel and polish” over tools guy at this moment, but maturity can lead to an uptick in those tools. He’s a bat first guy who knows the strike zone well, so I’ll nudge him up a bit because I’m a sucker for those guys.


Starlyn Castillo-SP
Castillo has a pretty delivery with a high 90’s fastball, and his athleticism leads to projects where the rest of his stuff (below average at the moment) will tick up. He has good feel for pitching and advanced command, but will need to make strides in that area too to fulfill his potential as a #3 starter.


Andrew Bechtold-3B
Bechtold is a plus athlete with good range at 3B and a strong arm, but he was 22 and got mauled in A ball this year. Despite the impressive walk rates, it’s more of a sign of his passivity. Here’s a good number that encapsulates his problem: .279 slugging this year. That won’t cut it. He needs an approach change, because he’s one more year away like this away from the River City Rascals.


Jose De Leon-SP
De Leon was an advanced 4 pitch guy with excellent feel for pitching and a nasty changeup that got K’s, but after a scattering of forearm injuries and then TJ surgery, we have to wait and see if everything comes back. I have him as a late inning RP, because I have little hope his fragile health history will let him become a durable ML workhorse.


Jose Albertos-SP
Albertos was a teenager with feel for 3 exciting pitches, but developed the yips early Spring, and everything snowballed from there. The pitchers who develop yips almost never come back, but here’s hope rest and recovery leads to a rejuvenated Albertos. Talent wise, he’d be in the top 15, but obviously, it’s hard for me to put him there now.


Freicer Perez-SP
Despite massive frame and a monster fastball, showed regressed control this year from a breakout 2017 and then had TJ surgery. Not good! I still have hope he can be an impact late inning RP, because this kind of size and fastball velo is rare. His feel for secondaries needs to be improved, but shifting him to the pen could help him focus on just one pitch needed to stay relevant.


Logan Warmoth-SS
Supposedly advanced college SS with bland tools hit .248 in A+ as a 22 year old. Doesn’t have enough range and glove to profile as a utility man, so he’ll just have to hit to profile. So far he hasn’t.


Sleeper
Jesus Lara-SS
A small and diminutive player, Lara fits the mold of recent Indian IFA signees with advanced feel to hit but little else in athleticism or tools. Now Lara is really small and lacks much punch, but has good bat whip and can really grind, and he might shift to 2B to accommodate Gabriel Rodriguez in instructs, who was the big ticket signing this year. I have soft spot for guys like these, and the Indians do a good job of developing these guys, so we’ll see how he turns out next year.


Summary
Yeah, the top of this farm was incredibly impressive, with a slew of impact, above average regulars topped off by a possible superstar in Trammell. The middle of the farm is stacked with either high probability contributors like Chavis, Thaiss, and Suarez, or toolsy gambles like Basabe and JCE .Toward the end, you get a nice pile of role player types or recent big money IFA types, and spanning 36 guys, this is one of the deepest farms in ODC

[Rays GM]

4. Milwaukee Brewers

1.Jo Adell-OF
2.Forrest Whitley-SP
3.Keston Hiura-2B
4.Michael Kopech-SP
5.Daulton Varsho-C
6.Ke’Bryan Hayes-3B
7.Nathaniel Lowe-1B
8.Miguel Amaya-C
9.Nico Hoerner-2B
10.Logan Gilbert-SP
11.Jhon Torres-OF
12.Isaac Paredes-SS
13.Victor Victor Mesa-OF
14.Adonis Medina-SP
15.Tyler Freeman-SS
16.Evan White-1B
17.Jeter Downs-SS
18.Osiris Johnson-SS
19.Gregory Santos-SP
20.Enyel De Los Santos-SP
21.Danny Diaz-3B
22.Payton Henry-C
23.Ronny Rojas-SS
24.Raynel Delgado-3B
25.Will Toffey
26.Dom Williams Thompson-OF
27.Quintin Holmes-OF
28.Matt Sauer-SP
29.Melvin Adon-RP
30.Blayne Enlow-SP
31.Chris Seise-SS
32.Johan Oviedo-SP
33.Christian Santana-3B
34.Seth Corry-RP
35.Yoan Lopez-RP
36.Joel Machado-SP
37.Jose Pujols-OF
38.Alvaro Sejias-SP
39.Connor Uselton-OF


Jo Adell-OF
Adell is an elite athlete, whose hitting acumen has surprised most prospect evaluators. Early last spring, when Adell wasn’t yet considered a first round pick, he had some serious swing and miss issues. But he corrected them pre-draft, and took off from there. While it’s unlikely he retains his plus speed as he matures, he projects to RF, where his plus arm plays well. At the plate, his 70 raw power manifests itself in lasers across the field, and its likely he grows into plus game power or more. His terrific bat speed allows him to catch up with premium velocity, and he sprays the field; he’s a smart hitter, who knows how to adjust to pitchers. He arrived in AA as a 19 year old last year, and he’ll start again in AA, with a likely promotion to AAA next year. He needs to work on laying off breaking pitches and improving his pitch recognition, but it’s likely his makeup/smarts/physical abilities helps him overcome these early flaws. He projects as an all star RF, a franchise player that should carry the Angels along with Mike Trout.


Forrest Whitley-SP
Whitley has godly stuff, with 4 plus pitches, his best being a 70 changeup that elicits foolish swings, and an upper 90’s, and two breaking balls that get good marks for their power and spin rate. He needs to better locate his stuff to reach his ceiling of a #1 starter, but even if he doesn’t, his stuff is so good as a possible #2 starter. He had a shortened year thanks to suspension and injuries, but he has filthy during his short stay in the AFL, and should compete for a spot in the Astros opening rotation in 2019.



Keston Hiura-2B

Hiura, the main piece back from the Jose Ramirez trade, has a chance to be a special, special hitter. Despite a leg kick I really didn’t like coming out the draft, he’s got terrific bat speed, with a swing that ends with a flourish, resulting in loud, all fields contact, and he has the bat control to avoid a high rate of K’s. He’s aggressive and won’t be an impact 2B, but when you’re looking for elite up the middle hitters, Hiura is your guy. He projects as an all star 2B, who can be the rare up the middle hitter who can hit .300 and launch 30 Hrs. Refining his approach will be key to reaching his ceiling.



Michael Kopech-SP

I feel terrible for Kopech, who suddenly started consistently throwing strikes in the few starts before he underwent TJ surgery. Now, I’m not sure what to expect after TJ surgery. If his stuff and command comes back, you have one of the few candidates in the MILB who can become a true #1 starter. He’ll show a 100 MPH fastball that shows cutting action, along with an elite slider that he pairs effectively to rack up K’s. He introduced a curve this year, and he showed that it can be an average pitch which he can locate effectively, which will be huge in setting up his 1-2 combo. He’ll be back in 2020, where he’ll pick up as one of the game’s top prospects.


Daulton Varsho-C
Varsho, who probably should be ranked as the Dbacks’ top prospect, is the rare catcher who can do it all. He shows good bat speed, above average pop, runs well which translate into moderate SB totals, and is an unusually athletic player for his size and position. He hit well in high A as a 21 year old this year, and showed marked gains in the receiving game, but I have doubts his fringey arm will ever make him more than a sub average catcher back there. Still, I love what I hear about his makeup and leadership abilities, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. He projects as an above average regular at C.



Ke’Bryan Hayes-3B

Hayes plays a gorgeous 3B, and is required viewing on how to handle the hot corner. He’s an athlete with a good arm, patient and instinctive at the corner, and almost always make the correct decision with the ball. In short, he’s a gold glover at the position, and if we included defense in ODC, I’d seriously consider putting him #3 on this list. As it is, while his defense guarantees him a job, his below average pop is going to drag down his value somewhat. His bat speed is below average, but he has an excellent eye at the plate, and his swing is short, leading to tons of all fields contact. I’d like to see him add some loft to his swing to introduce some more pop, but even if he doesn’t, he projects as a league average regular at 3B who can provide high OBP numbers and moderate SB counts with his advanced base running skills.


Nathaniel Lowe-1B
Lowe came out of nowhere to smash minor league pitching, and was a big reason why the Rays felt okay with trading Bauers to the Indians. He’s shortened his swing to catch up with premium velocity, and while his hit tool is merely average, his excellent eye allows it all to play up. He’ll crush mistakes with his plus power, and profile easily at 1B. He does struggle with lefties a bit, which is my concern, so Lowe might just be a glorified platoon bat, but there’s a chance he adjust more and plays himself into a regular position. He’ll have his shot next year to seize the 1B job in TB.


Miguel Amaya-C
Amaya long had intriguing offensive traits -- strong frame, good eye, young for his level in 2017 and 2016) -- and he broke out in 2018 with a career year. He has a pretty swing that leads to tons of contact, and his strong frame leads to average raw pop. He’s an elite defender behind the plate thanks to a strong arm, a good pop time, and framing ability, so there’s a stable profile here. It’s hard not to see him as an above average regular at catcher in a few years, especially considering the absolute depravity (and I’ve said this a lot) of the position.


Nico Hoerner-2B
Hoerner showed some unexpected pop in his pro debut this year, and combine that with a natural ability to line lasers across the field, and you suddenly have a very interesting up the middle prospect. He’s made some tweaks with his setup to unlock this power, and he highkey killed the AFL. It seemed like every prospect guy I followed on twitter wouldn’t shut up about him as he was the buzz of the league. He plays well enough at 2B, and that’s all you need for the bat to play. He can zip to the big leagues with his track record and experience against advanced pitching as an offensively focused 2B.


Logan Gilbert-SP
Logan Gilbert, who kind of looks like Degrom and went to the same college as Degrom, was the safe pitcher choice in this year’s FYPD. He’ll show a low 90’s fastball, an above average curve and slider, and average change, along with above average command and feel for pitching. It’s not sexy I guess, but his well rounded profile has a high floor, and if his velo bounces back (it was higher in his first couple years as an amateur), he can scrape his ceiling as a #2 starter. I don’t know if it will, so a #3/#4 type seems to be the easy bet here.


Jhon Torres-OF
Torres is a dude. He’s big and athletic, with a monster swing that produces loud contact. He ripped apart the GCL after being flipped from the Indians to the Cardinals, and with further growth, might have 70 in game power. He’s still a bit raw offensively, and how much he hits will determine his overall future. But he’s hit so far, and there’s nothing glaring that says he won’t. The Cardinals have now had three big guys pop up on their farm recently who can mash (Torres, Elehuris, Nunez). Torres is the best of the 3, and by a decent margin. He projects as a middle of the order thumper.



Isaac Paredes-SS
Paredes might have to shift to 2B or 3B because of his body and chumpy glove, but he has elite hit to feel, and has performed as statistically well as you could expect give his age (19) in AA last year. He also possesses average raw power, and a great grasp of the strike zone, not prone to chasing, and has a very solid offensive profile. He projects as an above average regular at 2B who can really punch it. He’s as safe as they come.


Victor Victor Mesa-OF
Okay, kinda the low guy on Mesa here. A lot of his real life value is going to be derived from his defense, but again, we don’t count defense in here. People generally feel he has good, possibly plus contact ability, but nothing elite to offset the rest of his profile. The power is modest, slightly below average thanks to a swing that lacks loft and a small frame, and so whatever contact he makes isn’t exceptionally impactful. He runs very well however, and might rack up quite a few SB’s in the ML level. He’ll stick in CF, so the bar won’t be exceptionally high; I just think he’ll be a solid, average regular there, and there’s a high probability he ends up doing that.


Adonis Medina-SP
Medina has very good, plus stuff, with the chance for three plus pitches. He does fight his command a bit, which was a big reason why he was lit up a bit too many times in A ball this year, and his excessive movement on his pitches leads to moderately high walk rates. But he’s athletic, so an uptick in command and further refinement means a mid rotation starter who can rack up K’s.


Tyler Freeman-SS
Freeman is the answer to the hypothetical question: “If a player had elite hitting ability but is bland in everything else, can he be an impactful regular?” Terrific feel for the barrel and top of the scale bat to ball ability resulted in tons of contact as he tore up the NYPenn league at 19. He has fringe average power, probably below that, and he’s an average runner who’ll lost a step as he fills out. He’s limited to 2B given his lack of range and arm, but it probably won’t matter in the end. Hitting is the most important ability for a position player, and Freeman is world class. He projects as an above average regular at 2B.


Evan White-1B
White added some loft to his swing this year and showed off a midseason turn around with increased power, but his results in the hitter friendly Cal League was a bit disappointing. Still, he projects as a plus hitter, and his elite glove will keep him employed at first base (seriously, check out 2:07 in the video I linked below). He has above average run times, and he might even play some OF in the majors given his range and natural athletic talents. Physically, he’s an incredibly interesting prospect, but until I buy into his power surge, it’s going to be tough to see him as anything more than an OK regular at 1B.




Jeter Downs-2B
Downs is a well rounded 2B prospect who does a bit of everything, and has above average feel to boot, so there’s a lot of stability here as a prospect. He might even profile at SS given his arm, but most feel 2B is where he’ll be most comfortable. He’ll open up as a 20 year old in high A next year, could be a riser on prospect lists given his defensive position and lack of a glaring flaw.


Osiris Johnson-SS
Osiris has elite athletic gifts, twitchy but strong, graceful yet brutal when punishing mistakes from pitchers. He has good hands in the box, and knows how to generate loft with his swing, and more growth might lead to plus in game power, rare for a middle IF. He doesn’t run particularly well, and his lack of fielding chops might shift him to 2B, but he was young for his draft class, held up well in the GCL as a 17 year old, and has enough projection and present abilities to dream on him. High variance guy -- could be an all star 2B, could just be a utility guy if the contact ability never fully comes.


Gregory Santos-SP
Santos is still only 19, but was impressive in low A this year, showing a mid-upper 90’s fastball with a plus, mid 80’s slider that cut in hard on LH batters. He’s also a good athlete, and has solid feel for pitching, leading to guesses of average, maybe slightly below control. He needs to work on his changeup, which is well below average, to be a ML starter, but this is a guy who was a sleeper early on the year, and pretty much delivered on that promise. He has the upside of a #3 starter, but he’s light years away.


Enyel De Los Santos-SP
Santos throws in the mid 90’s, has 4 averagish pitches, and has reasonable feel for pitching. This isn’t exciting, but he limits HR’s, which helps offset his lack of K’s from a bland arsenal, and he’s ML ready as a backend starter.


Danny Diaz-3B
I might be the most pessimistic Red Sox fan in the world right now. Then again, I might be the only Red Sox fan in the world who actually gives a hoot about the farm. It’s bad right now, probably worst in the majors, but it was used to build a championship winning team, so that’s okay. But, this year the lower level of the farm is starting to show life. Guys have emerged such as Antoni Flores (more on him later) and others, and the next wave of talent is currently bubbling in the GCL and AZL and below. Diaz is a big part of this. He didn’t have an overwhelming year in the DSL, but he showed big, plus raw pop and the arm to handle 3B, but needs to tamper down on trying to yank every ball for a HR. The approach needs work, but overall, most people still peg him as a positive contributor on offense at 3B thanks to quick bat speed and loft, and he should stick at 3B if he keeps his weight (now at 6’3”, 200) in check.


Payton Henry-C
Henry has big pop and projects to stick at catcher, but the hit tool is fringey at best, and he generates a plethora of ground balls. He needs to close up some holes in his swing, but if he does, he profiles easily as an effective, average backstop given his power and arm behind the plate.


Ronny Rojas-SS
Rojas was an IFA in 2017 who was praised for his terrific ability to generate contact, moderate power, and play up the middle, probably 2B, but he was torn apart in the DSL, while his other counterparts played admirably in the higher levels. Still, he looked good in extended, and the DSL line was a small sample, so I wouldn't worry too much just yet. It’s just that if he doesn’t hit, he doesn’t have the plus tools to keep many people interested


Raynel Delgado-SS/2B
Pretty swing, good feel to hit, performed well in the AZL, but below average pop with no other standout tools. A bit similar to recent Indians IFA signees -- projects as a versatile utility guy who’s who can put the bat to the ball and draw walks.


Will Toffey-3B
Toffey is a fave of mine, because he has the arm and glove to play 3B, has performed well in AA, good feel to hit, and has done better in tapping into his power. He might be nothing more than a utility guy given, but that’s a pretty good outcome at this part of the list.


Dom Thompson-Williams-OF
Thompson had a career year in high A as a 23 year old, which is going to leave a lot of people skeptical, but he’s a versatile dude who can play all 3 OF positions, has 55 in game pop, and looks like he’ll hit enough to be a threat at the ML level. He looks like a 4th OF type who can sneakily contribute some HRs and SBs, which isn’t bad; it only looks bad in the context of the James Paxton trade.


Quentin Holmes-OF
Elite 80 speed, hasn’t performed since being drafted in 2017 by the Indians, but he was considered raw even by Northeastern cold weather standards, and there’s still time. This is a kinetic athlete who simply makes things happen with his world class physical traits, but he might be a simple bench bat/4th OF type who gets inserted into games because he plays CF well, runs like hell, and has moderate pop.


Matt Sauer-SP
Sauer has a RP delivery, which is okay because he has two plus pitches (mid 90’s fastball, slider), and his control projects to a 40, at best. Didn’t perform well in the NYpenn league this year, so the Yankees might be okay with shifting him early to the pen.


Melvin Adon-RP
Adon looks great: He’s 6’4”, 235 Ibs with a 100 MPH and a plus slider. This year, he made strides with his control, and broke into high A. Considering that he never pitched above rookie ball before that, his year wasn’t really that bad at all. It was an encouraging year all around for him, and if he keeps making gains with his control, has closer potential.

Blayne Enlow-SP
Enlow has a projectable 6’3” 170 frame, and features a good curveball and low 90’s fastball that he’ll hopefully grow into more as he matures. He did struggle with injuries and command this year, but he was 19 in A ball, so it really isn’t quite a big deal. He projects as a backend starter.


Chris Seise-SS
Seise was a projectable SS with good actions in the field, but was raw at the plate. Lost the year to rotator cuff surgery, which might have lingering effects on him once he gets back, so he’s now even further behind the curve.


Johan Oviedo-SP
Oviedo, who looks like Kevin Knox (Compare them side to side), has a monster 6’6” 220 frame with long limbs that lead to elite extension. His stuff comes and goes depending on the day, and his control is all over the place at the moment, but a few encouraging signs: As the year wore on, his numbers improved, and the quality of his stuff improved. It’s possible Oviedo is on the cusp of a breakout as he gains control over his body, so he’s one to watch. He projects as a mid rotation starter if it all comes together, but it’s probably not likely he gets there and settles in as a very good late inning RP.


Christian Santana-3B
Santana has fast hands, is incredibly athletic, a plus arm, and soft hands that work wells at 3B, and it all falls apart because he swing at literally everything. If he changes his approach, he could be an easy regular with plus power at the plate, but he’s the living embodiment of impatient DR hitters.


Seth Corry-SP
Corry has feel for three above average pitches, but has a RP delivery and got knocked around in low A this year thanks to shaky control. But he has starter upside if he can polish things off, and was only 19 this year.


Yoan Lopez-RP
Lopez was a famous international prospect who got, at the time, a record breaking 8.27 million under the new international signing guidelines. Billed a potential mid rotation starter, he suffered through mental and makeup issues, depression, and lack of control/3rd pitch, and was almost considered a nonprospect before shifting to the pen last year and breathing fire. He made his debut this year and impressed, touching 99 MPH with a plus slider. He’ll get a chance to win a job this year out of the pen in Arizona.


Joel Machado-SP
Machado is an athletic lefty with some projection remaining and feel for three pitches, and signed this year as an IFA with the Cubs.


Jose Pujols-OF
I’m still skeptical about Pujols, who admirably came back to A+ after struggling last year, and mashed. His approach and swing will lead to a lot of K’s regardless, and it’s not like he provides much value elsewhere. But he has pop, so you never know. He’ll open next year in AA as a 23 year old.


Alvaro Seijas-SP
Seijas has a high spin fastball and a plus curve that gets whiffs, but lacks a 3rd pitch, stands a little below 6 feet, and hasn't pitched well in two years.

Connor Uselton-OF
Uselton was old for his HS class last year, is a poor corner OF, and hasn’t hit at all despite a moderate assignment to the Appy league as a 20 year old. At this point, you’re betting on pedigree.

Sleeper
Yefri Del Rosario-SP
Rosario was one of the Braves prospects let go after their international scandal, and he signed with the Royals over the winter. He’s a bit small, and the changeup is still below average, but he’s surprisingly polished for his age, has a plus fastball and curve that’ll get there, along with deception that lets it all play up. He put it all together in august, posting a .75 ERA in A ball, and will pitch in A+ as a 20 year old next year.

[Rays GM]

3. Philadelphia Phillies

1.Jarred Kelenic-OF
2.Ronny Mauricio-OF
3.Joey Bart-C
4.Will Smith-C
5.Matthew Liberatore-SP
6.Brendan Mckay-1B/SP
7.Justus Sheffield-SP
8.Darwinzon Hernandez-SP
9.Noah Naylor-C
10.Jordan Groshans-SS/3B
11.Dakota Hudson-Sp
12.Cionel Perez-SP
13.Taylor Hearn-SP
14.Yunior Severino-SS
15.Bobby Bradley-1B
16.Dylan Carlson-OF
17.Cavan Biggio-SS
18.Malcolm Nunez-1B
19.Parker Meadows-OF
20.Miguel Hiraldo-3B
21.Trevor Stephan-SP
22.Jarren Duran-2B
23.Carlos Rodriguez-OF
24.Josh Morgan-3B
25.Alejandro Pie-SS
26.Randy Arozena-OF
27.Edward Olivares-OF
28.Steele Walker-OF
29.Mike Siani-OF
30.Seth Romero-SP


Jarred Kelenic-OF
Kelenic was lauded for his advanced hitting skills and well rounded profile (55 run, 55 power, good arm, some chance to stick in CF), coming out of college, and he hit very well in his pro debut. He’s more polish over upside at this point, but there’s a chance he can be a star if he sticks in CF, which depending on who you subscribe too, is 50-50 at this point. I expect the Mariners to give him every chance too, but even if he doesn’t, he projects as a 55 regular in RF. I’m putting him above Mauricio because he’s safer, but his ceiling is a good notch below Mauricio’s.


Ronny Mauricio-SS
Mauricio had crazy, dream worthy projection, and hit his way into the Appy League as a 17 year old this year, so there are star level tools here. At his peak, he can show plus power, good speed, elite defensive tools, and polish at the plate. This is a deep list of prospects, but Mauricio is easily the most talented guy here. He just needs to keep on growing and filling out his frame to maximize his talent.


Joey Bart-C
Bart mashed in his pro debut this year, and he has several very reassuring traits you look for as a catcher. He’s got a strong arm, knows how to call his own game, is capable of leading a pitching staff, and is considered a lock at the position. He’s got big, light tower power too as a catcher, which drew a lot of attention as the draft approach. There’s swing and miss issues here, given a few holes in the swing so there’s moderate risk Bart gets exposed in the upper levels. But the upside is a guy who hits 250 with 25 HRs as a catcher, and that upside is too good to ignore to push down any further on the list.


Will Smith-C
Smith has added power to his game now, and given that he’s already a plus defender at catcher with good feel to hit, he already profile as a well above average catching prospect. He’s sneakily one of the best prospects in the minors, and honestly isn’t that far behind from Keibert. Given his newfound power discovered by adding loft to his swing, you can even argue he has a higher ceiling.


Matthew Liberatore-SP
Liberatore has the frame and stuff you can recklessly dream on, with the chance for 4 above average pitches (with the best being a knee buckling curveball that has a chance to be double plus) and plus command. He currently tops out in the low 90’s, but given his 6’5” 200 Ibs frame, you expect his velocity to tick up as he matures. He has a chance to be a front line starter, but there is a long way to go.


Brendan McKay-1B/SP
Mckay is a fascinating prospect given his two way ability, and there’s now consensus he’s much more interesting as a pitcher than as a batter. He has a sterling 4 pitch mix, that while lacking velocity, is effective because all of his pitches project to be above average, with his curveball and cutter being the best of the bunch. His command projects to be plus, which along with his plus makeup and feel for the game, gives him a chance to be a #2 starter. He can also hit too, but is less polished in that area. He has great raw power, but it hasn’t manifested itself much in game given swing and miss issues. When you consider his 1B profile, it’s also tough to see him as anything more than a low end regular there. I think Mckay could certainly be something more than that if given the chance to play full time as a hitter there, but that ship has obviously sailed. He projects as a #2/#3 starter who can provide effective AB’s as a pinch hitter.


Justus Sheffield-SP
The Yankees shipped out Sheffield to Seattle in the Paxton deal, which I think is a boon for Sheff’s prospect value. I had a hard time seeing him succeed in Yankee stadium given his height and the fact that his stuff regressed this year to that akin of a backend SP. In Safeco, his tendencies to give up HRs won’t be a big issue, and as a lefty with three above average pitches there, I expect him to do very well for himself. He projects as a #3/#4 starter who can get a healthy amount of K’s in the ML level.


Darwinzon Hernandez-SP
Hernandez probably won’t be a SP in the end because of below average command and the lack of a third pitch, but that’s okay. He projects to be a monster out of the pen, with a deceptive plus plus fastball that reaches the high 90’s and an elite curve that gets swing and misses, but it does fluctuate in quality. He’s still a bit raw, and needs to work on cleaning up his mechanics, but moving to the pen should help with both. He projects as an elite late inning arm.


Noah Naylor-C
Naylor showed better than expected feel to hit, patience, and pop in his AZL debut with the Indians, and his stock is ticking up. He might never be more than fringey at catcher, but he showed versatility at 3B this fall (his arm will play there, and so will the bat), so he’s not dependent on catching to remain relevant. He projects as an above average regular at the catching position.


Jordan Groshans-3B
Groshans was a fringe first round talent who went higher than expected because the Blue Jays wanted to spend money on their 3rd round pick on Adam Kloffenstein, which is just dandy because they were HS teammates. Groshans does have talent tho. He’s a well rounded 3B prospect with average feel to hit, plus power, a strong offensive approach, and is considered a decent defender at 3B, but he does need to work hard on his body and range to remain there. He impressed the Jays enough to move him up to the Appy league as an 18 year old, and he’ll likely start in full season ball next year.


Dakota Hudson-SP
Hudson might only be a RP because of his delivery, but he has terrific stuff. It’s a sinking, mid 90’s fastball that racks up tons of ground balls, and his hard slider generates tons of weak contact. He doesn’t miss too many bats, which is another factor in relegating him to the BP, but the stuff, moxie, smarts is all there to be a dominant BP force. He should win a BP role in STL coming into next Spring.


Cionel Perez-SP
Perez is a good candidate to be mid rotation starter as soon as 2020, with a diverse mix of pitches fronted by a plus fastball and a sharp curveball that he used to mow down AA this year, but he needs a third pitch (perhaps his changeup, which is approaching average) to really reach that potential.


Taylor Hearn-SP
Man, I think the Pirates overpaid for Keone Kela. Hearn was one of two prospects that Pit sent to Tex for Kela (more on the second later). Hearn has an electric arm from the left side, with a high 90’s fastball with tilt, a plus slider, and an average changeup which SHOULD be good enough to start if his control continues to improve, which it did in AA this year. He probably won’t be ready start in the majors until mid season 2020, but the upside is an imposing #3 starter. I really quite like him a lot.


Yunior Severino-2B
Severino has incredibly fast hands, which leads to future guess of plus in game power, which is rare for a middle IF. He needs to adjust his approach and tone down aggression, but he was only 18 in the Apply League last year, and held his own. He could be a breakout candidate next year once he gets a handle of the strike zone in low A. It’s not likely he ever becomes more than a slightly below average hitter at his peak, but this kind of power potential is rare from someone who can can convincingly play 2B.


Bobby Bradley-1B
We’ve been waiting forever on Bradley, who’s been loitering in the mid minors for the past couple of years. At this point, he’s a known commodity, a one tool guy which so good (70 raw power, 65 game) that its kept everyone waiting, expecting a titanic breakout. I don’t think that’s coming, but he profiles easily as a 220 hitter with 30 bombs. Whether you find that valuable depends on your roster building tastes, but he’s worth a flier because there’s always a chance there’s a breakout.


Dylan Carlson-OF
Okay, so maybe Carlson doesn’t have the greatest statline in his short pro career, but he’s been young for his level at every stop while posting an above average league OPS+, has plus power, has a great eye for the plate, and has good feel for the the strike zone. He fits in well at RF, and could be a riser on these lists for next year. He projects as a league average regular in RF.


Cavan Biggio-SS
Biggio added loft to his swing this year, producing eye popping numbers in the power and walk department (albeit at AA), but he still swing and misses an awful lot, and he was 23 years old for the entire year. I think the Blue Jays are cognizant of his flaws, and realize for what he is: an effective, and powerful platoon/superutilty guy whose bat gives a lineup extra juice when it needs it. He’s played 2B, 3B, 1B, and the OF in the minors, which is predictive of what the Jays will want out of him in the Major Leagues. Don’t expect a high BA, but he’ll give you good numbers in OBP and SLG.


Malcolm Nunez-1B
No guy generated more buzz in the DSL this year than Nunez. He murdered the ball, slashing a ludicrous 238 wrc+, and was far and away the best hitter in the league at 17 years old. But let's pump the brakes a little bit. He’s a 1B only type, a monstrous frame jam packed in a 5’11” frame, and DSL stats are notoriously friendly to guys like this who are way more developed than the stick figures who populate this league. At his core, he has plus power that plays in game, and he has a good idea of the strike zone, but people are in a wait and see mode to see if the bat will play in full season ball. He’ll likely start there next year in A ball, and could be a hitter in the mold of a la Billy Butler (who did ludicrous things in his own right in rookie ball), but the time horizon is long, and his frame is maxed out, meaning he is what he is.


Parker Meadows-OF
Meadows is an intriguing upside gamble, a tools goof with elite speed, the ability to play CF, above average raw pop, but generally below average feel to hit and can get over aggressive at times. He looked good in his pro debut this year tho, but full season A ball is where his flaws will be most tested. I think he’s a guy to watch because the upside is stincillating, so he’s a possible riser.


Miguel Hiraldo-SS/3B
Considered the best hitter on last year’s IFA market besides Wander, Hiraldo has fast hands that lead to plus power, and is an aggressive hitter who seeks to mash fastballs to his choosing. Like a lot of young guys, you’re expecting him to develop better pitch recognition and hope he tones down his aggression, but this is a guy who, at 17, hit his way into the GCL, and showed better feel to SS than expected, which would be a boon to his value. This is an all star talent if he’s at SS, but a shift to 3B would still make him a good regular.


Trevor Stephan-SP
Stephan was a bit older than his competition in AA this year, but he was still no doubt impressive, showing a humming mid 90’s FB and a plus slider, but probably lacks the requisite feel for pitching and 3rd pitch to start. Stash him into the pen tho, and watch his stuff tick up: He can be a fun late inning arm, tho I prefer guys like Darwinzon and Dakota who offer more “oomph” out of the pen.


Jarren Duran-2B
Duran has caught the eye of Red Sox prospectors who scour the lower level of the system, as he showed unexpected pop after a swing tweak after being drafted in the 7th round this year, and has elite speed that he uses well on the basepaths. He’s versatile in the field, playing 2B and OF, and has a line drive swing that minimizes K’s. The feel to his is short of plus, and the power may never be more than slightly below average, but this is a versatile player who run really well and lacks glaring flaws. He can be a really good utility player, or a regular type of player at 2B if his breakout continues into next year.


Carlos Rodriguez-OF
Rodriguez tired out in the last month of DSL play, but showed before a natural swing that generated tons of quality contact. No one sure if he’s going to stick in CF or a corner spot, depending on if you think his instincts will play there, and the power will be limited to below average given his small frame, but he has 70 speed, so the bet is it won’t matter too much if he does stick in CF. He’s a low end regular type, but given his great feel for hitting, speed, defensive profile, I think he’s a good bet to get there, despite having just played in the DSL.


Josh Morgan-3B/2B/C/SS
Morgan didn’t hit this year, but I think his line drive swing and modest power will result in decent offensive output that is playable. What is interesting, however, is his ability to play all over the field, as the Rangers have tried taking advanced of his athleticism, willingers to learn, and makeup to play catcher, 2B, SS in the meantime. He profile as a super duper utility guy, who serves as valuable ML depth and can serve as a swiss knife on an ODC bench.


Alejandro Pie-SS
Mmhh people were polarized on Pie, as not everyone as some people saw some inconsistent swings from Pie in the leadup to signing day, but he has oodles of raw athleticism, with plus speed, projectability, and currently raw power that should grow into 55 if he maxes out. He can play SS, or might shift to CF, depending on who you listen too. He’s more raw project than player at the moment, but the talent is considerable.


Randy Arozarena-OF
Zo lacks the range to play CF, and doesn’t hit for enough power, so no one is coming forth to project him as a starting corner OF either. But he has real feel to hit, can run well, and has the arm to play any OF position, so we’re looking at a 4th OF type.


Edward Olivares-OF
No one’s really sold on Edward’s bat, as he slogged a bit in A+ as a 22 year old, but he has a wide base of tools (plus power, arm, good speed), so if he does show a bit more selectivity and close some holes in his swing, you have a standard regular at RF.


Steele Walker-OF
Walker is a corner OF only (probably LF), but he was a pure hitter in college, and showed good line drive ability in his pro debut this year. The power is more fringe average, which means he’s going to have to hit all the way to keep me interested.


Mike Siani-OF
An elite defender in CF with good leadership abilities, the bat profile as more fringey in HS, and he was old for his class this year, so no one was sure on if he’d profiled. Well, he moves up here because he was impressive in the Appy League, and he showed good feel for hitting there, more advanced than you’d expect from a cold weather HS hitter. He doesn’t need to do much to be a regular in CF given his glove, but I’d like to see him in full season ball before rendering a judgement. He projects as a league average regular in CF, and he could be a real riser for next year.

Seth Romero-SP/RP
Romero fits better in the pen, as his control has stagnated in the pros, his changeup hasn’t come along, and he has, as what I call, poor makeup. But he throws mid 90’s and a plus plus slider from the left side, so he doesn’t need to do much more to be an impact, late inning arm.


Middle IF’s who project as good utility men
Fadriel Cruz-SS
Ronny Brito-SS
Arquimedes Gamboa-SS
Alexander Campos-SS
Jayce Easley-SS
Mateo Gil-SS
Euribel Angeles-SS
Warming Bernabel-SS

Fadriel has good raw ability and has the highest upside here, but is miles away. Brito has average pull pop who payed well this year, but has swing and miss issues. Gamboa is known for his glove, but his bat has stalled in full season ball. Easley is a speedster whose lack of size limits the impact of his contact, and Angeles, and Bernabel are lottery ticket IFA guys who are abstractions more than concrete players. Matos is athletic as hell and has a great glove, but not much else.


Position Player sleepers who can rise next year
Nick Decker-OF
Cabrera Weaver-OF
Wilderd Patino-OF
Luis Matos-OF
Jeremy De La Rosa-OF

Decker hit really well this year in his pro debut, and Sox Prospects was in love with him. Weaver is athletic, Patino has pop, Matos has good feel for hitting, and De La Rosa is surprisingly athletic with fast hands that generate good pop. But Decker is the guy I really want to track next year, because he can rise fast.


Far Away PItching Sleepers
Nick Lodolo-SP
Tobias Myers-SP
Ignacio Feliz-SP
Zach Lingenfelter-SP

Lodolo has power stuff, but lacks control at times, Myers has a power fastball and started showing a change this year, Ignacio is athletic and has sharp stuff with good feel for it, and Ling is a big RP type who raw stuff is decent, control/consistency not so much.



Role Players
Konnor Pilkington-SP
Tim Locastro-3B
Andrew Calica-OF
Kyle Cody-SP
David Parkinson-SP
Zack Litell-SP
Samad Taylor-2B
Cole Brannen-OF
Mitchell Kilkenny-SP
Ray Black-RP

Pilk was hit around junior year, and a velo dip caused him to fall. But still, a good backend candidate. Locastro has real feel to hit, can run, and plays middle IF and OF, so he’s super interesting. Calica is a 4th OF type with decent feel to hit and run, Parkinson and Littell are pitchability guys, who if you squint, look like backend starters. Cody’s lack of control might sink a promising 3 pitch arsenal, but his stuff is good for late inning RP role. Samad has bland tools but is well rounded and a keen eye and twitchy, so he’s interesting. Kilkenny has a good frame, but lack of velo and TJ is scary; Black has an 80 fastball but not much else.

Summary
It’s actually bonkers Philly’s farm was much stronger before trades sapped it; as it is, it’s still deep, with enough high upside talent that will rise next year, and a lot of quality role playing depth that should supplement the ML team. If I’d treated this farm like the others behind it, I could have gone 60 deep on writeups, but I’m exhausted already.