A few too many words on the state of ODC farms

[Rays GM 北海道日(Will)]

30. Houston Astros

1.Jayson Rose




Jayson Rose
It’s never a good thing when the best scouts can say about you is that you’re a good competitor. Coming out of a major conference from the University of Utah, Rose was lauded for his performance in the Pac 12, his mound presence, but docked for his size, his lack of an impact pitch, and a general blandess around his profile. He was picked in the 8th round in the 2017 draft, but didn’t get to pitch much in the AZL this year. His best pitch is an average changeup. He was knocked around in the pioneer league last year, showing an ability to miss bats, but an inability to avoid HR’s. He’s not expected to be more than organizational depth.


Sleeper:
ummmmm.....by default, Jayson Rose.


Summary:
It’s not good.

[Rays GM 北海道日(Will)]

*Note: I realize JT probably cut Slegers, but I'm still posting it as if he still has him because I spent 20 minutes of my life on Aaron Slegers, and I'm not wasting that*

29. San Francisco Giants

1.Aaron Slegers



Aaron Slegers
Aaron Slegers is such a Twins pitcher. Boring, pitches to contact, and probably a backend guy at best. He’s also massive at 6’10”. He’s lauded for his control, which paired with his terrific extension helps his stuff play up, which is good, because his stuff is generally considered below average. He’ll show a low 90’s fastball, a decent sinker, and a below average slider. He’s not going to strike out anyone, and it’s hard to see how he can last in a rotation. But considering his proximity, he’s an excellent candidate for rotation depth.

Slegers averaged around 12.2 pitches per inning in AAA Rochester before being called up by the twins in late April. He’s an efficient worker, who pounds the zone. His bread and butter is limiting walks and HRs.


Sleeper:
If Slegers continues to hone his command, it’s hard not to see a long career as a swingman.


Summary:
Slegers is good ML pitching depth for a thin SF pitching staff. 

[Rays GM 北海道日(Will)]

28. New York Mets

1. Sterling Romero-OF


Romero received 650K from the Indians in this year's class, and was widely regarded as one of the 5 best prospects the Indians signed this year, behind Rodriguez, Sanquitin. He's projectable, and has decent feel to hit, which makes him interesting, and fits in with the archetypal Indians IFA signee.


Summary
Romero is probably the guy I know least about on this list, but the people I generally listen to on Indians prospects really dig his potential and showing in instructs, so I think he's someone worth mentioning. 

[Rays GM 北海道日(Will)]

27. Chicago White Sox



1.JoJo Romero-SP
2.Nick Dunn-2B
3.Keury Mella-SP
4.David Banuelos-C
5.Angel Martinez-2B
6.Sandro Fabian-OF


Jojo Romero-SP

Romero brings the kitchen sink to the plate, and hopes you don’t hit it out. The stuff isn’t as bad as his widely projected role (backend starter) is made out to be. It’s a plus change with a good drop. When paired with a hard sinker that can run into the mid 90’s it’s a good combo already. He’ll also mix in a decent curveball, along with a slider (and maybe cutter, depending on who you listen too) to keep hitters off balance. He’s smart, and is willing to attack batters. He most likely ends up a good #4 starter, and should debut in 2020 after ending the year on a hot streak in AA.

Nick Dunn-2B
Dunn is just another bad fielding, good feel for hitting Cardinals infielder. His tools are about as exciting as CSPan, but his understanding of the strike zone and ability to make contact are recognized. A swing change could bring more power; the more likely scenario is a guy who hits enough to be on the fringe between starting and sitting on the bench.

Keury Mella-SP
Between Senzel, Trammell, Stephenson, India, Downs and others, the Reds probably have their next core of hitters coming up nicely. But they just don’t have any impact pitchers that you can rely on. Greene has TJS, and didn’t really show much in breaking stuff before being injured. Santillan made some big strides this year, but he’s not someone I would count on. Mella gets raves for his fastball and slider, and he looked “interesting” coming out the bullpen for the Reds this year. His control, and fluctuating secondaries dictate his future. He’ll be given every chance to start, given the Reds’ dire need for any pitching they can get their hands on. I like him as a late inning RP.

David Banuelos-C
Banuelos didn’t hit this year in A ball after being traded from the Mariners to the Twins for IFA money. He gets plaudits for his glove, but the lack of bat relegates him to a backup role.


Angel Martinez-2B
Here’s someone I’m not surprised the Indians picked up in IFA. Over the last couple of years in IFAs, the Indians have targeted vanilla tool guy but with good feel to hit and play(Valera, Bracho, Rocchio last year, Gabriel and Junior this year). Angel fits this mold. Son of former ML catcher Sandy Martinez, he has a good internal clock, sprays the ball all over the field, has good awareness of the strike zone, and makes all the defensive plays. His lack of size (5’11) and speed limits his upside. He should shift to 2B, and got $500,000 from the Indians in IFA.

Sandro Fabian-OF
Sandro Fabian has always tantalized us with his tools, and after smashing the AZL as an 18 year old, people were excited. Problem: He swings at everything! In the two years since his AZL performance, he has struck out 195 times while walking 36 times. Those are not good indicators of future performance in the upper minors. He’s going to have to hit because he’s a corner OF with below average speed.



Sleeper
Eduardo Vaughan-OF

I like Vaughan for a lot of reasons. While his tools are bleh and caused him to be less regarded on IFA day, he has a good track record as one of the premier players in his home country of Panama, showing off a hit tool that projects to be average and maybe even beyond that. Furthermore, at a gangly 6’3” 165 Ibs, there’s a lot of projection to add here. If his power starts to tick up, there’s reason to believe he can be more than organizational fodder.
The Red Sox, for instance, made him one of their top IFA signees this year. 

Summary

This isn’t a very exciting farm…...now. But if things break right, you could have a couple ML starters (Romero, Kella), while producing fine role players in Dunn and Banuelos. I’m not ready to cut the cord yet on Fabian, and Martinez and Vaughan were pretty significant IFA signings. That’s not bad for a franchise that has prioritized the present for a few years now.

[Rays GM 北海道日(Will)]

26. Washington Nationals

1.Jean Carlos Mejia-SP
2.Alex Lange-SP
3.Misael Urbina-CF
4.Robert Dugger-SP
5.Brent Rooker-1B/OF
6.Jerming Rosario-SP
7.Augustin Ramirez-C
8.Daury Del Rosario-SS


Jean Carlos Mejia-SP

Mejia was a sleeper for the Indians last year, and while his A ball dominance was overshadowed by the exploits of Luis Oviedo and Carlos Vargas a few levels belows, this is a really interesting guy. He’s big and strong, throws in the mid 90’s, has a plus changeup, and can show a sharp slider at times. Yes, he was a bit old for A ball last year, but the Indians clearly love him. He was added to the 40 man roster this year, along with bigger names specs like Bobby Bradley and Sam Hentges. Watch out for him.


Alex Lange-SP
Alex Lange was an uber famous college pitcher as LSU, then was popped in the draft in the Cubs in. I’m not a fan of the delivery, but he’s a pitcher who knows how to get outs with his plus curve and promising changeup, and despite meh velocity, there’s a polished backend starter here.


Misael Urbina-CF
Misael is the uber IFA spec here. He does a lot of the soft stuff right -- He’s a leader, a competitor, a grinder. He’s generally regarded as one of the best pure hitters in the IFA class, but the rest of his tools are split. Some think he’ll stay in CF with his plus foot speed; others see the strong chance he loses speed as he ages, and shifts into LF. Then the pressure on his bat will increase even more. With a general lack of power and pressure on his defense, the ceiling isn’t as high as others in his class.


Robert Dugger-SP

Jim made a good pick here. Dugger has good feeling for pitching, and a well rounded arsenal with a lively, low 90’s fastball, average secondaries to boot. Part of the infamous trade that sent Dee Gordon to the Mariners for Nick Neidert, Chris Torres, and Robert Dugger, he’ll likely join Neidert and Lopez next year in the Marlins rotation as more backend types.


Brent Rooker-1B/OF
Rooker was a masher in college, and it led to him being infamously popped by Max in the first round a couple years ago. Yes, he has power, but there’s question on where he’ll fit on the diamond, and he struck out far too much as a 23 year old in AA last year (150 times!), so the realistic assumption is he’s a 4 bat with 6 pop. As a LF/DH type, that could mean a good career as a bench bat if he improves the approach. He’s not really a guy I think that has much place in today’s game. But, as Jesus Auguilar, Luke Voit and others have shown us, hulking 1B types can be late bloomers.


Jerming Rosario-SP
IFA pitching is so brutal to predict, and frankly, not efficient. The last big IFA pitching spec to make a huge splash is…….Anderson Espinoza? That being said, Rosario has a lot intriguing traits. He’s athletic, projectable, is fairly polished, and has a three pitch mix led by a changeup that projects as plus. He signed with the Dodgers this year for $600,000.


Augustin Ramirez-C
Augustin Ramirez is a bat first catcher who can really put a hurting on the ball, but there’s questions about him catching. He’s stocky, and his value really comes from him sticking at catcher. Luckily, the Yankees are known to be exceptional at developing catchers. We’ll see how he pans out.


Daury Del Rosario-SS
Another middle IF for the Rays. Daury get praise for his simple mechanics and game record in hitting. His career value depends on where he’ll end up on the diamond, as 3B or the OF have been floated as more likely possibilities than SS.


Sleeper
Joalburt Angulo-SP
It’s no secret the Phillies love taking on projectable pitchers from Latin America and developing them. Some good examples are Francisco Morales, Manuel Silva, and Manuel Urias. Angulo is the next in line. Sitting at 6’5” and 165 Ibs, he’s extremely projectable. Right now he can throw low 90’s. Add more weight, and he can touch the high 90’s. Furthermore, with promising secondaries in his changeup and curve, his arsenal points to a starter role in the very far distance. For now, making sure his limbs stay in line during his delivery will be crucial in reaching his potential.


Summary
Yeah, it’s a bleak situation in Washington. But there’s some upper level pitching talent, and a surprising amount of IFA depth deep below. To accelerate the rebuild, the pitching needs to stay healthy, while a breakout from one of the lower IFA guys (I have my money on Angulo) would be greatly appreciated. And if Rooker is a late bloomer, well…….you have something cooking!

[Rays GM 北海道日(Will)]

25. St. Louis Cardinals

1.Evan Kruczyński-SP
2.Thomas Nido-C
3.Greg Allen-CF
4.Justin Williams-LF
5.CJ Alexander-3B/1B
6.Greg Deichmann-OF
7.Domingo Acevedo-RP
8.Peter Solomon-RP
9.Paul Richan-SP
10.Jeremy Pena-SS
11.Aramis Garcia-C
12.Dillon Maples-RP
13.Osvani Gutierrez-Sp
14.Roniel Raudes-SP


Evan Kruczynski-SP

I’m calling him Kruz because I’m not typing name out again. Kruz, as the newly appointed Cards top spec, has a bland 4 pitch mix that works because he knows what he’s doing on the mound, and has elite extension. He gets ground balls, and knows his limits. He’s a backend arm at best; if not, there’s a long career as a swingman in for him.


Thomas Nido-C
It says a lot about the Mets catching situation that they strongly considered pushing all their chips in for Realmuto. As it is, Nido, coming off a “Huh, I thought he was injured” year, still has the same basic profile. He has some pop, he’s a plus behind the plate; the question is if he hits enough for it to be useful. I’m still bullish on him. Give him time. He’s going to have a long ML career either way, whether as a strong gloveman who can hit for power, or a low end regular who barely struggles to keep his head above water.


Greg Allen-OF
I like Allen. He’s fast (check his SB numbers this year). He’s got a clean swing and good mechanics; it’s why I still like him as a hitter who can hit for good averages while providing SB value despite his ugly numbers this year. He should stick in CF. TBH, he has the clearest path on this list to a ML role.


Justin Williams-OF
Williams looks good. He’s a muscle bound hitter who’s physically talented, but his entire setup undermines these physical gifts. His swing is geared for ground balls and line drives, not fly balls, where his power plays. He’s not particularly patient either, and his LF home means he’s going to have to hit because he provides nothing else but his bat. It’s a thin profile here. If he hits for more power, he could be a decent regular. If he doesn’t, he’s nowhere near hitterish or patient enough to make it work. Right now, I lean that he’s a quad A guy.


CJ Alexander-3B/1B


You’ll find no guy who improved his stock more after the draft than Alexande. Before the draft, most people were convinced he couldn’t hit enough (swing was too loopy) or he couldn’t stick at 3B. Well, he smashed his way to A+ this year, not only showing better feel to hit, but better speed, as he legged out quite a few triples. Some of that is BABIP induced, but he’s genuinely more interesting than two months ago. Still: The swing is a bit long, and unless he starts walking a lot more, he’s going to have to fight uphill to stay employed. He’ll likely shift to 1B, where he can platoon. Even better, if he keeps hitting and maintains his body, he could be a low end regular at 3B. The road is treacherous, but he's looked loads better since draft day.


Greg Deichmann-OF
Deichmann suffered from a hammate injury I believe this year. When healthy, he looks like one of the most complete hitters in the A’s farm (Which, let’s be real, isn’t saying much but still). A more permanent concern is where he’ll play on D, where there’s a good chance he’s a 1B.


Domingo Acevedo-RP
One of the more disappointing guys this year, Acevedo didn’t jump onto the ML scene as quickly as you would want this year. He’s a bullpen only guy now, but the lack of consistency is a bit irksome. The upside with his power stuff and frame is the only reason he ranks this high.


Peter Solomon-RP
A spin rate king, Solomon has a power fastball and breaking ball that is hellacious in short relief. You do wonder if there’s more in the tank. He was a former first round spec in Notre Dame, and the Astros do a good job of salvaging power stuff guys. He could be a great bullpen piece, or an interesting backend starter.


Paul Richan-SP
*Puts head on desk*
Richan is another Cubs college pitcher who’s okay. He’ll show a workman like 4 pitch mix, and is a good bet to be a 4th starter. Sigh.


Jeremy Pena-SS
Pena has a pure swing, and is a terrific defensive SS. But no one think he’ll hit much, and even if he does, there won’t be much impact. Utility guy career is a best case scenario.


Aramis Garcia-C
TBH, Garcia looks finished in SF, with Bart coming up right behind him. At his best, he’ll show average pop and a decent glove that will pass enough for a backup. But he’s a far too aggressive hitter, and his approach exposed him in AA last year.


Dillon Maples-RP
Dillon Maples has some of the best pure stuff in the minors, with a screaming upper 90’s fastball that can touch 100, with two plus breaking balls. Pretty good right? The problem is well below average control, as he walked 39 guys in 38.2 innings last year in AAA. If he ever gets his control ready, he’ll be ready for a setup role.


Osvani Gutierrez-SP
Osvani is interesting. He has a good frame that allows for projection, and already throws 97 as a 17 year old. He has secondary feel too. He signed for 600K with the Dodgers this period.


Roniel Raudes-SP
Raudes was a hot name a couple years ago, showing good feel as an 18 year old in A ball. Now, after striking out less than 6 guys per 9 in A+, backend starter is the absolute ceiling. His stuff is more average fringey now, and the control is nowhere near enough to make raise him above the muck. One thing in his favor is a relatively deceptive delivery. Besides that, its just a really bland profile that is far away.


Sleeper
Rony Garcia-SP
For a while, my favorite prospecting game in here was to see if I could get one of the funnily named latin Yankees pitchers from Matt, one named Roansy, the other Rony. But while Roansy (Contreras) has reached high acclaim after ripping through short season as an 18 year old, its been a slow climb for Rony. While Roansy is more of a power pitcher, Rony is a cutter specialist. This year, he reached High A as a 20 year old and posted good strikeout and walk rates. He’s more of a well rounded pitcher who’ll sink below the radar because of his soft profile. He’s not sexy in any sense, but he’ll be a 21 year old in AA next year. Realistically, he could profile as a backend starter.


Summary
An optimist could see one of Garcia or Nido becoming a starting catcher, Allen hitting enough to contribute SBs, and Alexander and Williams making enough adjustments to become low end regulars, while Solomon and Maples become formidable late inning arms. More reasonably, the farm is what it is, which is mostly a pile of 35s and 40’s that project at best as role players. But with this amount of depth, someone could get lucky and break out. I just don’t see it materializing on this team with Matt in win now mode.

[Rays GM 北海道日(Will)]

24. Pittsburgh Pirates



1.Braxton Ashcraft-SP
2.Nick Northcut-3B
3.Trey Riley-SP
4.Andrew Yerzy-C
5.Jake Thompson-SP


Braxton Ashcraft-SP
Ashcraft is perhaps the most exciting prospect I’ve written about in the last two thousand or so words. He’s an impressive athlete, who was outstanding as a football receiver for his Texas HS team. On the mound, that athleticism shows, with easy generation of mid 90’s velocity with feel for a curve and change. Given his 6”5” frame, its likely he added more velo and power to pitches in the coming years. He’s a favorite of mine, and will start in the Appy league next year at 19.


Nick Northcut-3B
Nortchut mashed in HS, and led to him receiving a way over the slot bonus from the Red Sox in the 11th round at $565,000. He’s got big pop and a strong arm; questions arise from his hitting ability and the fact that he was older than his draft class. He’s raw, but the tools are exciting.


Trey Riley-SP

Riley was another pitcher taken by the Braves in last year’s draft. The stuff here is pretty incredible: It’s high 90’s heat, with a plus curve with 3000+ RPM, above average slider, and average change. He’ll show iffy control, but did present a reasonable track record of starting at JUCO after leaving his first college program. The risk horizon is big but he has a chance, even a small one, to be a star.


Andrew Yerzy-C
Yerzy was pretty impressive in short season ball this year as a 20 year old, showing off the power that got him a million dollars from the DBacks two years ago. As a catcher he’s made strides in becoming a better receiver, but the arm is still fringey. He’ll need to tighten that up, because it’s his meal ticket to a ML career. If he catches for sure, I’ll have to move him up.


Jake Thompson-SP
Thompson isn’t a spec I like too much, but theoretically, I get why some might like him. He has a fastball and slider combo that can lead to a ML role of some kind, and a developing splitter might push him into a starter role. But his iffy control and delivery lead me to believe he’s a RP.


Sleeper
Colten Brewer
One of the more fascinating deals this offseason, the Red Sox sent Esteban Quiroz, a stocky middle IF who looks like a utility guy who can mash to the Padres for a ML ready RP. Brewers isn’t electric; he’ll show an above average low 90’s cutter and decent curve to batters. But at 26, he’s ready for his spot in the show. With a current gap in the Red Sox bullpen, he can surprise some for holds next year.


Summary:
Yeah, it’s not a deep farm. But the top 3 oozes upside, and Yerzy and Thompson are interesting enough for me. Plus, Brewers is a ML ready reliever ready to contribute in the Sox farm. Good enough.

[Rays GM 北海道日(Will)]

23. Minnesota Twins

1.Grant Lavigne-1B
2.Brian Miller-OF
3.Zach Watson-OF
4.Eric Haase-C
5.Anthony Santander-OF
6.Carlos Vargas-1B



Grant Lavigne-1B

#LavigneFever
Lavigne wasn’t much of a prospect before his senior year in HS, until he bulked up and then proceeded to tear up his New Hampshire HS league like it was no problem. Looking back now, after a torrid start in the Pioneer League at 18 where he showed power, discipline, and plus makeup, it’s clear a few things led him to falling in draft day. He came from a cold weather state in New Hampshire; his track record as an elite hitter was short; his projected position was 1B, a risky demographic teams scamper away from. It doesn’t matter. Lavigne can hit, and hit for power, and he’ll start next year in A ball at 19 years old. A good season there makes him a top 100 prospect.





Brian Miller-OF
Well, this list got boring quickly. Miller was praised for his well rounded profile coming out of college, but he’s hit with very little power since then. He’s a good runner who can stick in CF, and he has good feel to hit, so it all comes down to the impact he’s making when making contact. He’s a very good bet to be a reserve off the bench.


Zach Watson-OF
Watson didn’t really take the steps forward as a sophomore at LSU, so he’s now headed back to school. A lot of people peg him as a 4th OF type, who can flash solid power and elite speed with feel to hit. I’m going to put a wait and see approach on him. He’s lanky and athletic, and I feel there’s more pop in him than what he showed last year. He’s a true CF, and if he hits for the power expected of him, he’s a regular.



Eric Haase-C
Haase is going to draw Evan Gattis Comparisons all day, because he’s a bad glove, power over hit, scruffy catcher. He was pretty poor in AAA last year, showing an inability to avoid K’s, but if he sticks at catcher, he’s going to find a ML role somewhere because of that power. If not, well, I’m sure the Japanese will love him.



Anthony Santander-OF/1B
Santander lit up the A+ and AA a couple years ago in Cle, but he’s struggled with injuries since then. He was a rule V pick from the Orioles, but struggled with them this year. He’ll show good bat control and average pop, but the bigger concern is he looks like a 1B who tends to chase pitches too much. He’s going to have to correct one of them to make it on the fringes of a roster, and both to fulfil his potential as a ML regular.



Carlos Vargas-1B
Vargas was a big IFA signing by the Rays a couple years ago, but his body has backed up as he looks like a 1B now, and his track record of hitting has been meh to warrant any more interest. But he 70 raw power, and that should be enough to move him up the ladder.


Sleeper
Wilmer Font
Font’s always been bandied around as a sneaky rotation candidate, because of his strong 4 pitch mix and good peripherals in AAA as a Dodger farmhand. And while things didn’t work out in LA for him, he’s now in Tampa, as part of their unusual pitching experiment. Font will show a rising fastball, splitter, and and biting curve to batters, and knows how to sequence to get ahead. Right now, he projects as a swingman role. But in a Rays staff that is up in the air, he can surprise.



Summary:
The farm after Lavigne is a pile of role players, but Lavigne is an intriguing enough spec to push the Twins farm forward. I think he can be a plus hit, plus power 1B, and those guys are hard enough to find. Meanwhile, Miller, Watson, and Font are going to have a mildly impactful ML career no matter what.

[Rays GM 北海道日(Will)]

22.Colorado Rockies

1.Brady Singer-SP
2.Braxton Garrett-SP
3.Kyle Lewis-OF
4.Will Banfield-C
5.Terrin Vavra-SS
6.Kumar Rocker-SP
7.Ford Proctor-SS
8.Slade Cecconi-SP
9.Josh Ockimey-1B
10.DJ Stewart- 1B
11.Keegan Thompson-SP



Brady Singer-SP
The best of the bunch is Brady Singer, a bulldog who projects as a #4 starter at worst, mid rotation guy at best. He has a hard slider and good fastball, although his stuff fluctuated in college (His stock was down for much of the spring due to reduced velo), and his unusual delivery gave a few RP concerns. He was considered the #1 pick in the draft before the spring, but fell to the Royals at 18. Still, his track record of 3 great years at Florida speaks for itself, but he’ll always be a prospect to monitor because 1) he needs to develop a change to remain a starter and 2) his delivery and low arm slot lead to durability concerns. But this is just more nitpicking here, and he remains one of the best bets from this class to become an impactful ML starter.





Braxton Garrett-SP
One of the safer pitching prospects in his class, Garrett showed good feel for 3 pitches that all projected above average, had plus command, and was considered a plus athlete. So of course, he blew out his elbow within the first year of his debut. Now, it’s just a wait and see approach to see if his stuff comes back. If it does (and it should), he’s still projected as a fast moving #3 starter.


Kyle Lewis-OF
Lewis has been eternally disappointing since being drafted, due to swing and miss issues, but it’s also fair to chalk it up to injury. Before the draft, he looked like a 5 tool dynamo, but injuries have knocked a good half to full grade off his speed and defense. 2018 was a good step for Lewis, who wasn’t overly impresive in High A or AA, but being healthy for a full year was promising. With his legs back under him and a year away from his past injuries, 2019 should be a big test for Lewis. He projects as a league average RF who’s power over hit.

Will Banfield-C
Banfield was deemed to be the top prep catcher in this year’s class, but Anthony Siegler beat him out over the Summer and s\Spring for that spot as he showed a much better feel to hit. Banfield’s tools are more exciting though. He’ll show big pop and a rocket arm that make him a platonic ideal for the catching position, but he increasingly came under fire for his ability to hit and his bat to ball skills over the spring, leading to the slide to the Marlins. But considering the level of mediocrity the catching position has slid to in the MLB, there’s a low threshold for Banfield to clear to become a ML starter.


Terrin Vavra-2B
Vavra was a fave from this year’s draft class, as I believed he was undervalued after spending much of his career injured at Minnesota, despite showing good hitterish tendencies with average to slightly below average pop. He’s lauded for his makeup, and while he’ll start his career at SS, his average to fringey arm is going to push him to 2B. But he’s a good bet to have a ML career of some kind, with a likely scenario as a low end regular whos hit over power.


Kumar Rocker-SP
Rocker looked like the top Georgia prep pitcher in his draft class until being overtaken by the more polished Cole Wilcox. As it is, both are headed to college, with Rocket going to Vanderbilt. An impressive athlete, Rocker has a thick lower half that propels his stuff, as he’ll show a monster high 90’s, wicked slider combo that is as good as any incoming freshman’s. But his mechanics are iffy, which warps his control and tends to flatten out his stuff at times, giving a lot of evaluator pause about his true role. But the talent is rare, and there’s a good chance Rocker is going to find some big league role. There’s just too much risk it’s going to be a rp.





Ford Proctor-SS
Proctor is an unexciting prospect, who possesses no above average physical tools, and might even have to slide to 2B in the future, but he’s a polished college hitter who can grind out at bats. Because of his physical limitations (most don’t think his arm can play at SS while his speed is below average), a career as a multi-positioned utility piece is unlikely if he doesn’t hit enough. But most think he will hit enough to be a low end regular at 2B.


Slade Cecconi-SP
Cecconi is going to the University of Miami after going unsigned in the draft. A triceps injury kept him for much of the spring, slowing down his ascent as a projectable starting pitching prospect who can get his fastball already in the high 90’s with secondaries that project to average. His stuff, while promising, didn’t show up in the Spring as it had in the past, so it’ll be interesting to see how he fares during his time in Miami.


Josh Ockimey-1B
Ockimey is a 1B only prospect who has plus raw power, but projects to have a fringe to below average hit tool, and reports indicate he could benefit by being more aggressive. He has the ceiling of a league average 1B, but needs to make adjustments before that can happen. But the power will play to all fields, and that’ll keep him employed for now.


DJ Stewart-LF
Stewart’s poor physical traits relegate him to LF, and his power output suffers from his inability to hit high end velocity. When he’s on, he shows big raw power with surprising feel to hit, but his track record as a pro is not promising. He projects as ML depth.


Keegan Thompson-SP
Thompson is a ML ready starter, who holds probably unplayable velocity in the Ml, but he’s a smart pitcher that can make use of his repertoire to keep hitters off balance. He’s realistically a good swingman in the majors.


Sleeper
Connor Joe-3B/LF/C
Joe was a first round pick by the Pirates awhile ago, and had a good year in the Dodgers AAA team showing off a more flyball heavy approach that has resulted in more power. He’s a patient hitter who can take walks too, and was picked up in the rule v draft by the Reds. If all goes well, he can be a versatile bat who can play a bit everywhere.

[Rays GM 北海道日(Will)]

21. Seattle Mariners

1.Daz Cameron-SP
2.Lazaro Armenteros-OF
3.Seth Beer-1B
4.Chance Adams-RP
5.Juan Pie-OF
6.Micah Bello-OF
7.Vince Fernandez-OF
8.Gavin Sheets-1B
9.Jihwan Bae-SS
10.Dwanya Williams Sutton-OF
11.Jose Lopez-SP





Daz Cameron-CF

Yes, the Verlander trades won the Astros a title, and he has been magnificent in the past year and a half there. Guess what? Daz is good enough to make this trade even. He does everything you want from a fantasy CF, showing enough wheels to steal a moderate amount of bases per year, and flexing 20 HR pop. He’s not quite as explosive as his HS days, but this is a guy who has endured multiple fluctuations in his stock from a 1.1 candidate a few years ago to a fringe first rounder. He projects as an above average starter, and there’s a few all star years in him somewhere.



Lazaro Armenteros-LF
The numbers won’t jump off the page, but Lazaro did well enough in single A beloit this year to keep his stock moving on up. The concerns are still the same here: Weak arm, lack of plus range means he’s relegated to a corner. But a year ago, people had doubts about his hit tool despite his prodigious athleticism and build. Now, he looks the part of a slightly below average hitter, which is enough for his power to play.



Seth Beer-1B
Beer looked good in his professional debut, but that was in the lower level of the minors, where he’s supposed to mash. The swing is still iffy and long, and not quite everyone believes it’ll play in the upper minors. Still, this dude mashed in college, and it's very possible early exposure led to nitpicking. He has a pretty wide variance, which is unexpected for a 1st round college bat. His hit tool will be the difference between impact regular or quad A guy. Expect him to open in AA next year. If he hits, he could be a fringe top 100 guy.

Chance Adams-SP
Adams was as big as any Yankees spec a couple years ago, but a few things have happened. First, he had surgery on his elbow to remove spurs, which led to a velocity drop. His control has always been iffy, and collapsed this year. Still, reports came back glowing when he shifted to the bullpen late in the year, where he was again flashing his plus stuff. I think two things have to happen for him to be fantasy relevant again. One is a trade (preferably to a nice NL ballpark). A second would be a shift to a multi-inning bullpen role, where his stuff plays up.

Juan Pie-OF
Pie showed a pretty swing in his DSL debut, flashing plus power and a surprising feel to hit. As the top signing in the Pirates 2017 IFA haul, he had a lot of pressure to deliver on the promise past international pirates prospects haven’t. More of less, he succeeded. He’s athletic enough with a good arm to stay in RF, and was more polished than expected. This is a 2nd round talent in most years.


Micah Bello-OF

“Bello!” “Bello!”

-An alternate scene from ‘A Streetcar Named Desire”

No, Bello isn’t as enthralling as the drama surrounding Tennessee Williams, but he’s safe. He makes contact, plays good CF defense, and run well. There isn't power or flash to his game, but he has a very good chance of being a productive bench player.


Vince Fernandez-OF
Not my kind of guy, but Fernandez combines all fields pop with decent enough feel for contact, but not much else. He’s dependent on staying within the Rockies system to have fantasy value, which is dark, but admittedly, I'm the low man here.


Gavin Sheets-1B
Gavin has double plus raw power, and flaunted it in his college career at Wake Forest. Relegated to a 1B role, he has to mash in pro ball. So far, the results have been a little disappointing in his first run through High A ball. The patience/K profile isn’t as good as you’d want, but there’s still time I suppose.


Jiwhan Bae-SS
Bae has a lot of similar traits with other Asian middle IFs. Slight, quick, and contact oriented. It makes him a decent prospect. He’s currently under investigation for assaulting his girlfriend from South Korea, and no one’s sure what suspension he’ll get.


Dwanya-Williams-Sutton-OF
Sutton is the lottery ticket here. He’s a big, bad man with huge pop and good batted ball data, but never did as well as he should at East Carolina. We’ll see how the Padres shape him, as his mechanics can get out of whack when he oversteps.


Jose Lopez-SP
Lopez shows a bland 4 pitch mix, and was thus hit around in AAA this year. He projects as a swingman, one who is good enough to warrant consideration as depth for a ML pitching staff.


Sleeper
Kyle Young-SP
Not enough people talk about Kyle Young, who at 6’10” rivals the great mountain man John Rauch in height. While Rauch was a power reliever, Young projects, possibly as a backend starter who has uncommon grace and athleticism for someone his height. He was fine in A ball last year, but without an out pitch, he’ll get eaten alive in the upper minors. Developing his arsenal further is key to a ML career.


Summary
The farm has some decent talent below, tho it’s a bit shallow, but it has a near ready ML starter in Daz Cameron, who is easily the best spec profiled so far. Chance Adams could be very impactful in a multi-inning role, and someone like Lazaro and Seth Beer can have big years to put themselves on some top 100 lists. The farm is limited by it lack of good quantity, but the quality here is ready to make an impact.

[Rays GM 北海道日(Will)]

20. Texas Rangers

1.Franklin Perez-SP
2.Mason Denaburg-SP
3.Bryan Reynolds-OF
4.Anderson Tejeda-2B
5.Justin Dunn-Sp
6.David Peterson-SP
7.Garrett Whitlock-SP
8.Tristan Pomper-OF
9.Ryan Helsley-SP
10.Derek Hill-OF
11.Garrett Stubbs-C
12.Gage Canning-OF
13.Kyle Bradish-SP
14.Andres Munoz-RP
15.Stephen Tarpley-RP
16.Cd Pelham
17.Josh Fuentes-3B
18.Drew Ellis-3B
19.Brian Mundell-1B
20.Roberto Chirinos-SS


Franklin Perez-SP
Perez is a whip smart pitcher that came along with Daz Cameron and Jake Rogers in the Verland trade. But while Daz has pushed his stock steadily along, Perez has struggled a bit with shoulder ailments. He going to have to get stronger to shoulder a starting workload, but if he does, the complete package is pretty special. He’ll combine 4 above average pitches with good athleticism and plus command, something that is beyond the grasp of your everyday prospect. He projects easily as a mid rotation guy if he’s healthy. 



Mason Denaburg-SP

Yeah, the Nationals farm is about as shallow as warning water for a tsunami, but the top 4-5 guys is as good as any in baseball. Denaburg slots easily behind the the big 3 of Robles, Kieboom and Garcia. He’s a pretty special athlete, one who was viable as a position player and pitcher in high school, but also as a punter and kicker on the football team. Combined with his promising stuff (big fastball, sharp curve, surprising feel for a 3rd pitch despite everything), he can profile easily as a mid rotation starter. The key here is having him play catch up to the rest, and making sure he recovers well from a biceps ailment that sidelined him last year.


Bryan Reynolds-OF
Reynolds isn't as fun as the first two guys here, but he’s probably the safest. He's got the speed to play in center, and he’s a viable switch hitter with moderate power. He profiles as a low end regular, although he did suffer from some hammate issues that hampered him for awhile. It’s not an exciting profile, but he’ll have a long career. In other words, he sounds like discount Austin Meadows.


Anderson Tejeda-2B 
People rave about the tools. Love ‘em. Plus raw power? Check. Good bat speed? Check. Strong arm and good speed? Check and check. Tejeda is the rare 2B prospect who can do everything, and the only thing keeping him from becoming a big spec is his approach. He swings well but get aggressive at times, and it's that flaw that might expose him in AA. Still, if he performs well in AA next year as a 21 year old, he’s going to become a t100 guy easily.


Justin Dunn-SP
For the longest time, I thought Dunn was a combo pitcher; one who was better off in the pen. As late as last year, people praised the slider and fastball combo, but the changeup and command left a lot to be desired. Well, flash forward to the Cano deal, and Dunn was part of the headlining package. Truth to be told, I like Kelenic, but I think he’s a better fit for a corner, where he’s a 55. It’s also why I think Dunn was the best guy who actually went back to Seattle. He’s got a power fastball, and now (2) breaking balls that grade out as plus. This, along with a good changeup he flashed late last year, makes him a pretty exciting pitching prospect, doubly so now that he’s in Seattle. He looks like a #3 starter if his command develops as expected.




David Peterson-SP
Peterson was incredibly dominant in college, but not everyone was sold on the pure nature of his stuff. Well, as a Met, he flashes three good pitches, that, along with his extension and downhill plane, leads to healthy K’s and ground balls. His control gets out of whack sometimes thanks to his monster frame, but his track record with it is solid. Expect him to make his debut late 2019, with a shot as a mid rotation guy in 2020.


Garrett Whitlock-SP
Whitlock has a power sinker combo that makes him an already interesting pitching prospect. With an increasing feel for changeup, the only step left is to refine his control, which can be a drag with his long and slender frame. The upside is a middle rotation SP, and I would bet on the Yankees doing the requisite stuff to at least get him close to that.


Tristan Pompey-OF
Everybody drooled at Dalton Pompey’s younger brother at Duke, but rumors of makeup problems led to him sliding. Oh well. He’s a tools goof, and played well in his first exposure to high A ball. There’s some swing and miss issues here, but Pompey fits in perfectly with this Marlins regime: He has power and speed to spare. He fits in LF thanks to his meager arm.


Ryan Helsley-RP
Another power bullpen arm is coming to St. Louis. Helsley is a true two pitch guy, with and upper 90’s fastball and nasty curve that spins more than the cast of Suspiria. Lack of size and some shoulder issues are the most likely to befall him, but if everything is intact, this is a guy to project as a late inning rp.


Derek Hill-OF
I tried getting Hill from Bill. I tried to play it cool, as if Hill was just another regular in his farm. Well, I didn’t play it well enough, and I didn’t get Hill. As it is, Hill struggled a lot in High A this year. The tools are tantalizing: Elite speed, promising potential for physicality, good instincts. But between injuries and stalled development, Hill is pretty mediocre hitter. He possesses very little game power, and he nearly struck out 30% last year. Last year, he was a good year from top 100 status. This year, he’s another bad season from irrelevance. I like the promise here, but fighting for a guy with elite tools but a poor bat is a derek hill even I don’t want to die on.


Garrett Stubbs-C
Well after a thrilling run of toolsy guys (and Bryan Reynolds), we’ve come to the role player section of the list. And Stubbs, while not sexy, is going to have a good career as a backup catcher in the big leagues. He’s very unpretentious. The swing is simple, he has a good approach, and he is strong defensive catcher. Anyone seeking a prospect who can surprise and be effective for catching should call Bill. Stubbs is your man.


Gage Canning -OF
Canning combines good physicality, speed and CF defense with a poor approach at the plate and bleh bat to ball skills. It’s a tease, really. Canning, to his credit, is a player’s player, which is a scout’s way of saying he’s a grinder. The upside here is a gritty 4th OF who can surprise you on his best days.


Kyle Bradish-SP
Bradish’s promising 4 pitch arsenal is marred by poor command and spotty mechanics. It’ll be up to the Angels to develop him properly as a starter. If he can’t handle it, he’ll be a good option for a bullpen conversion, with a power fastball and curve that plays up with a long frame.


Andres Munoz-RP
Munoz exploded last year, with a monster 100 MPH fastball and promising slider that he used to great effect to dominate the AFL as an 18 year old. As like most RP prospects, his command is his achilles heel, which is caused by less than pleasant mechanics and some overthrowing. Still, the upside is hard to find. It’s just that the history of big bodied RP prospects isn’t exactly promising.


Stephen Tarpley-RP
Tarpley is a future menace to LH batters. He’ll throw a sinking mid 90’s fastball and a vicious slider to keep them looking foolish. He got abused in the majors late last year, but this is a dude who projects to be stashed away for the right usage in a bullpen. Just wait till he faces Cody Bellinger. It’s gonna be a capital M Murder.


CD Pelham-RP

Pelham combines a hard cutter hard with a arm strength fastball to make him one of the deadlier LHP arms to emerge from the Rangers farm system in some time. Of course, the delivery leads a lot to be desired, but it’s coming along given that’s he’s relatively new to pitching. There’s closer potential here too, and my goodness -- he would be intimidating to face as batter at 6’6”, 235 Ibs. He should have played in the NFL. Oh, and I linked a slideshow of his basketball days in high school. Like I said -- big dude.


Josh Fuentes 3B/1B
Fuentes is a swing first, ask questions later prospect who has below average power for a corner IF, but above average feel to hit. As a prospect who can pass at 3B, it’s possible he becomes some kind of offensive minded bench bat who can cover both corners or fill in as a low end regular in his best years. It’s a profile that skates on thin ice, but between his proximity to the major and his track record with the bat, it’s possible he can stick for a few years in the majors as a streaky contributor who can mash on his best days.


Drew Ellis-3B
Ellis needs to tap into his power more to be a viable 3B prospect, because everything else is bland. He’s a good 2 years away from making any kind of impact, if any.


Brian Mundell-1B
Yes, Mundell played for the Hartford Yard Goats last year, who play in a graveyard of a field. But when power is your calling card, slugging under .400 isn’t going to cut it. He needs to hit for pop, because everything else is below average to well below.


Roberto Chirinos-SS
Chirinos was a big IFA signing from theYyankees last year, and was known his for quick bat, good track record in international games, and rocket arm that played at SS. He got knocked around in the GCL as a 17 year old, but there’s still plenty of time. He projects as an effective bottom of the order hitter SS.


Sleeper(s)
Jaden Hill-SP
Brandon Williamson-SP


Bill has no problem dipping into the pool of guys who are heading into college, and in Hill and Williamson, he’s found a couple raw but intriguing arms that are bound for a few years in greater America.

Hill is part of the #1 recruiting class in the nation at LSU, where he’s joined by guys like Landon Marceaux, CJ Willis, and Cole Henry. While Marceaux is considerably more polished than Hill, Jaden has more explosive stuff. He was knocked around in the fall season at LSU, but everyone raves about the potential.

Brandon Williamson was a shrew pick by Bill. He’s a huge lefty who’s still projectable at 6’5” and 200 pounds, with mid 90’s gas and a good slider, although the stuff is rather inconsistent at times; not a huge shock because of his size.I believe he’s headed to Texas Tech next year to fulfill a baseball scholarship, but the catch is he’ll be back in the draft next summer as he’s already spent two years at JUCO. It’s possible he’s an early day two pick next year. Not bad for a late round stash.


Summary
Bill’s farm is a fairly strong step up from those behind him, and that’s due the depth in pitching and promise of a few impact bats lower down. It’s a good mix of upside and proximity, and the top few guys here (Perez, Denaburg, Tejeda) can really push their stocks upward next year. It was a fun farm to write about.

[Rays GM 北海道日(Will)]

19. Chicago Cubs
1.Mitch Keller-SP
2.Kyler Murray-OF
3.Albert Adzolay-SP
4.Freddy Tarnok-SP
5.Alec Hansen-SP
6.Ryan Vilade-3B
7.Cody Bolton-SP
8.Nick Burdi-RP
9.Zack Burdi-RP
10.Thyago Viero-RP
11.Nick Quintana-2B
12.Ryder Green-OF
13.Riley Ferrell-RP
14.Kevin Merrell-SS
15.Jonathan Diaz -SP
16. Jacob Gatewood-1B


Mitch Keller-SP
Keller was healthy all last year, a good change over his previous years. He’ll show a plus fastball and curve, along with good control. It’s a safe profile that should slot in as a #3 starter, but further refinement of a changeup is needed to reach that point. He isn’t the strikeout machine you’d except a top 30 pitching spec to be, but he’s efficient, strong, and has a high floor. He’ll be in the pirates rotation by mid next year, a welcome sight for a cubs team that needs impact pitching.

Kyler Murray-CF
How do you evaluate Kyler here? The tools are self evident -- it’s a smorgasbord of power, speed, raw twitch athleticism, and the moxie to deliver under pressure. He can stick in CF, and with further refinement, there’s no reason he can’t deliver some all star seasons. It’s a classic boom or bust profile, and I’ll put him in the top 150 based on that hefty upside.

Problem: He’s too good of an NFL QB prospect, and let’s think about this logically. Despite signing a 5 million dollar bonus with the A’s last year, he still wanted to play QB despite most people thinking he was a non spec there. Now? With Herbert returning to school, he and Haskins look like the best bet to be the first two NFL QB’s taken. And true, NFL money isn’t as a good as MLB money, but QB’s have longer careers and better pay than the rest of the sport, and the fact that Murray has waffled between vagueness to cryptic hints suggests he largely prefers playing football over baseball. I don’t blame him. This time next year, he might be suiting up as the next Jaguars or Redskins QB, or playing CF for the Beloit Snappers. As it is, most NFL scouts believe he’ll be suiting for football next year. A more interesting scenario would be Kyler declaring for the draft, but telling teams he plan to play baseball. He could still get drafted in the later rounds, leaving it open to a potential football career if his baseball career doesn’t pan out.




Adbert Alzolay-SP
Alzolay struggled with control in AAA before getting surgery to end the year, but I largely still like him as a future mid/back end rotation starter. Like Keller, his fastball and curve project as plus, but his changeup and control all lag a good half grade to full grade behind. It makes it a much more risky profile, and the odds of him sliding into the bullpen are higher. But if he develops that change and makes continued progress with his command, he can fit in a rotation.


Ryan Vilade-3B
This year, Vilade didn’t look like the guy who took the world by storm in his professional debut, showing reduced impact when hitting the ball and a general reduced explosiveness. Still, after a brutal first month in A ball, he hit much better in the following 4 months. Still, his year brings to light that the offensive profile might be a lot more fringey at 3B, where he’s expected to stick instead of SS. Realistically, with some improvement and increased strength gains, he projects as a league average regular at 3B.


Alec Hansen-SP
In a pretty disappointing year for the White Sox farm, Hansen was the poster boy. After two monstrous seasons in the lower levels of the White Sox farm, Hansen’s struggles with control (which had led him to slide on draft day two years ago) reemerged with a vengeance. His big frame and constant mechanical tinkering led to a pretty astounding 59 walks in 51 innings this year, which really is a shame because the fastball curve combo is one of the best in the minors. As it is, I have him penciled in as late inning RP now, because his control has fluctuated wildly in the past 3 years.


Freddy Tarnok-SP
Tarnok is someone you can dream on. He’s thin, athletic, and has terrific feel to spin the ball. It’s a perfect frame (6’3” and 185 Ibs) with feel for 3 pitches, with a screaming high 90’s fastball complemented by a sharp curve. When you take in his arm strength and speed, it’s not hard to consider him as one of the most physically gifted pitching prospects in all of baseball. I have him at 4 in this system despite his relative rawness because his upside is a front of the rotation arm, and the rest of the guys below him have a glaring flaw. His flaws (lack of experience, feel for pitching, repeating his delivery) will improve with time.



Cody Bolton-SP
Bolton is one of the more intriguing specs here, because we’ve never seen him truly healthy and performing at his peak. At his best, he’ll show a starter’s repertoire with potential for 3 above average pitches. Unfortunately, his ugly delivery has accentuated a shoulder problem, which shut him down this year after a good start in A ball. He’ll come back next year, with a shot at moving into high A. Still, there’s a chance his delivery forces him into a BP role, where he can be a late inning guy.


Zack Burdi-RP
We’re in wait and see mode with Zack Burdi, who’s blessed with a true 80 fastball that can conquer worlds, and a double plus slider and plus change that is grossly unfair coming out in one inning intervals. He’s coming back from TJ, and will have a shot to pitch in the majors next year. The injury, and inconsistent mechanics that corrupt his control, are things to watch out for.


Nick Burdi-RP
Nick isn’t as exciting as his brother, as he “merely” has two plus pitches in his fastball and curve, but his stuff is back after TJ surgery, but like his brother, his mechanics and spotty control are his greatest weaknesses. He looked good in the majors this year as a pirate, and will have a shot to pitch in the late innings next year.


Thyago Viera-RP
Viera’s fastball challenges (Zack) Burdi’s fastball for best in this system, but he lacks the second out pitch the latter has. His control is even more fringey, and wasn’t terribly impressive in his debut, as his previous HR supressing ability in the minors didn’t show up this year. Still, the upside is pretty exciting if he maxes out his control, which might be good enough for him to be an impactful ML’er. Still, history is littered with guys with premium fastballs and elite athletic genes who still fail.


Nick Quintana-2B
Quintana profiles as fringe 2nd rounder in this year’s draft, and has exceptional pop for a middle infielder with impressive bat speed. He’s played SS for Arizona, but his range is fairly mediocre thanks to below average foot speed, so expect him to shift to 2B, or maybe even try 3B thanks to a plus arm. Cutting down on his K rates and showing improvement on his fielding will be key to a higher draft slot.


Ryder Green-OF
So deep is the Yankees farm is that their 3rd rounder this year who’s unbelievably tooled up (plus power, speed, arm) is going to get overlooked. Still, the swing has a lot of holes, and he’s raw but also young for his draft class. There’s hope he can do better than his first taste of his pro debut this year, because his raw power projects to double plus, which is ludicrous for a guy with his skillset.


Riley Ferrell-RP
Ferrell was one of those spin rate kings in the Astros system, and was being obviously groomed for a ML late inning role. But while he made it to Triple A this year, his control, as it was in college, was well below average and blocked him from having any real shot of a ML job on a championship level Astros team. He was plucked in the rule v draft by the Marlins, and should open in spring training with the ML club.


Kevin Merrell-SS
The A’s have developed a rather enthralling taste for high upside guys with their first round picks (Austin Beck, Kyler Murray), but then taken to high floor role player with their next picks (Kevin Merrell, Nick Allen, Jameson Hannah) in recent years. Merrell wasn’t terribly impressive in high A this year, but he can play SS, has 80 grade speed that disrupts the zen nature of baseball games, and can hit for a solid enough average. He profile as an average regular if his bat develops, but even if he tops out as a utility guy, his ability to play SS and provide high end speed will always keep him fantasy relevant.


Jhonathan Diaz-SP
Diaz is interesting in the sense that he’s one of the better pitching prospects in a depleted Red Sox farm, but his lack of out pitch, maxed out physical frame, and merely above average control and feel for pitching has his best case scenario as a backend starter, while a more realistic scenario would be a swing man role.


Jacob Gatewood-1B
Gatewood got a big bonues from the Brewers a few years ago to sign with them, but despite his massive power, he’s settled in as a R/R 1B with troubling strikeout issues and disconcerting lack of feel for hitting. He’ll need to make major improvements on that level to be a viable big leaguer.



Sleeper:
Brewer Hicklen-OF
Hicklen had a big year as a 22 year old in A ball this year, which isn’t impressive on its own right. However, his tools (double plus speed, above average pop, chance to stay in CF) have put him on the prospect map, and considering he doubled as a football player in high school and college, it’s worth it to consider that there might be more to come. The upside is a 20-20 guy who can stick in CF or LF.

Summary
This is an interesting farm, with boom or bust potential. As much as I like the upside or Murray, Vilade, Hansen, and Tarnok, if you told me 3 of them never became impactful big leaguers, I wouldn’t be shocked. Behind them slots a few fire breathing RPs with some baggage, and then some classic power over hit guys in Green and Gatewood. Still, Keller and Alzolay project to pitch in the majors some time next year, and their potential to become mid-rotation starters makes this farm unrivaled so far in pitching with the exception of Bill’s farm.

[Rays GM 北海道日(Will)]

18. Tampa Bay Rays

1.Isan Diaz-2B
2.Tristen Lutz-OF
3.Garrett whitley-OF
4.Mitchell White -SP
5.Cole Ragans-SP
6.Anthony Alford-OF
7.Carson Kelly-C
8.Jeren Kendall-OF
9.Shumpei Yoshikawa-SP
10.Tanner Houck-SP
11.Caden Lemons-SP
12.Grant Holmes-SP
13.Jordan Sheffield-SP
14.Ryan Boldt-OF
15.Griffin Roberts-SP
16.Victor Mesa Jr-OF
17.Rainer/Ryson Polonius-SS



Isan Diaz-2B
Diaz hasn’t really exploded since his monstrous A ball campaign in 2016 with the Brewers, but since the Marlins acquired him, his K rates have stagnated as he has risen to AAA. As he’s adjusted to a more well rounded hitter who’s simply looking to hit instead of mash, his profile has stabilized. He’ll hit for plus power, walk, and play somewhere up the middle (very likely 2B). The upside is an above average regular, and considering how fixable some of his flaws may seem to be (timing, learning to tone down aggression), he seems destined to hit for 20 Hrs and post above average OBPs in his best years.


Tristen Lutz-OF
Lutz heated up after a slow start in A ball, suffering from unusually cold weather in Wisconsin. He’s a strong athlete, who can hit for plus power, while offering a strong arm that rounds out a perfect RF profile. He doesn’t do much else, neither showing a patient approach or plus bat control, so it’s his power that’s going to have to carry him. Polishing his approach and getting himself to a merely 45 hitter should be enough for him to be a ML’er.


Garrett Whitley-OF
Whitley has the best set of tools in this farm, showing speed and power to spare. After breaking out in 2017, finally delivering on his promise, a torn labrum sidelined him. This is crucial development time lost for a guy already behind the curve. He’s a good two years away from ML impact, and it might be even longer with his lost time. But the upside is a 20-20 guy who can play multiple OF positions.


Mitchell White-SP
White is one of the most talented pitchers in the minor leagues, whose tandem of lethal pitches (high 90’s fastball, power slider) when rounded out with feel for a curve and change has him set up as a front of line pitcher. The problem is that his control is spotty at best, his injury history is getting increasingly troubling, and his game performance has always been subpar compared to his talent. It’s likely he settles in as a frustrating pitcher who teases something better. More likely, he would be excellent out of the pen, but expect the dodgers to give him every shot to start because the talent is rare.


Cole Ragans-SP
Before suffering TJ that knocked out his 2018, Ragans flashed an elite change and good feel for pitching, and with enough reps, was believed to be able to move past his early career control issue. If that happens, despite fringey velocity, he projects as mid rotation starter, or as fast moving backend starter. It’ll take time to get back on his feet, but his elite makeup will help surely along the way.



Anthony Alford-OF
Alford’s value was based on his premier athleticism and surprising polish as a baseball player after doubling in HS as a football player. However, his body has betrayed him numerously in the past few years, as he’s dealt with ailments from his hamate to his hamstring. It’s maybe time to adjust his grade to this reality, as his injuries have slowed his adaptation to baseball. It showed, in a pretty forlorn 2018 showing in AAA. Hopefully, he rebounds to his earlier projection of an above average regular.


Carson Kelly-C
Kelly is ML ready for catching duties, as one of the best defensive catchers in the minors. But his bland offensive profile is caused by below average bat speed that results in little power, but he can hit, can walk, and should be a good enough hitter to hold down a ML role, probably starter. He finally has a shot thanks to being in Arizona, away from that toxic Yadier fandom in STL, but his value in real life will always significantly be higher in real life than in fantasy.


Jeren Kendall-OF
Kendall’s electrifying profile (power, double plus speed, quality CF defense with a solid arm) is undermined by a complete inability to hit. The Dodgers have worked with his setup in hopes of cutting down on his swing path and reducing the number of K’s, but he struggled badly in the hitter friendly Cal League. This isn’t a recent issue, as he failed to strike out less than 20% in all 3 years in Vandy. The upside is George Springer lite, but he’s got a long way to go.


Shumpei Yoshikawa-SP
Yoshikawa’s back story is incredibly interesting, and holds a lot of implications for the future of Japanse baseball. Signed for 650 K out of Japan by the Diamondbacks in August, Arizona bypassed the usual code of conduct that demanded NPB the first right of refusal to signing the top talent there. The move, in their eyes, was allowed because Shumpei had gone undrafted out of college and HS. But after Shumpei turned himself in as a possible draft prospect for the October NPB draft, it’s fair to wonder if the DBacks broke unwritten the rules by jumping the gun to sign him. And because Japanese business culture is based on subtleties and informal rules, there might be repercussions for this signing.

Still, in recent years, the culture in baseball Japanse has become more slowly open to western baseball, and as more players have contemplated leaving (Yuki Kaito became the first Japanse player ever to bypass HS for a ML team when he signed with the Royals in July), this might be a sign that more and more players will leave early for the US. Shumpei, who by all reports preferred the US over Japan, is a trendsetter in this regard.

As it is, he’s actually an interesting prospect. He’s made a ton of progress since his HS days. He’s a smart pitcher who’s athletic, has a repertoire that (inevitably) features a splitter, which is complemented with low 90’s fastball and slider. It’s a backend starter profile, which is remarkable because only a few years ago he went undrafted in the NPB draft, and was pitching in roughly the Japanese version of the Independent League. I’ve linked the story that outlines everything below.

www.azcentral.com/story/sports/mlb/diamondbacks/2018/08/28/arizona-diamondbacks-deal-shumpei-yoshikawa-raises-questions-nippon-professional-baseball/1128648002/


Tanner Houck-SP
Much ado about nothing. Houck got shelled early in the season as the Sox experimented with his release point and set up, focusing on a changeup that would be crucial to make him a viable ML starter. When he went back to his original setup in college (lower release point), he did much better as a result. Right now, he’s a two pitch pitcher that is vulnerable to lefties because of his low release point, but is hell on righties thanks to a sinking two seamer and a hard spike curve. Until he figures out his changeup, he’s a late inning RP prospect. I think he gets there with some projection remaining, but his delivery, repertoire undermine an intimidating pitcher’s frame and two plus pitches.

Caden Lemons-SP
Lemons hasn’t pitched much lately, as the Brewers are being cautious with him, but he gets attention because his monster frame portends terrific projection, but his stuff hasn’t reached the heights that was promised on draft day. There’s still time, and the wait could be worth it if his stuff ticks up as his body matures.

Grant Holmes-SP
Holmes came over to the A’s in the Reddick/Rich hill deal, but while his stuff is exciting (sinking, mid 90’s fastball and plus curve), his control is iffy, and more concerning now is his durability. He was questioned early on in his career for his ability to handle a starters’ workload, and this year, a rotator cuff injury kept him out until August, and then another shoulder injury shut him down late in the year. The stuff is still tantalizing, but the arrow has swung to a relief role for Holmes.

Jordan Sheffield-RP
Sheffield, the other brother of Justus, lacks the well rounded arsenal of his brother, but does have the same mid to upper 90’s fastball gas and plus breaking ball. But his bleh control, and concerning drop in velocity for stretches at a time this year leaves a lot to be desired as a prospects. After getting shelled in high A as a starter for the second year in a row, it’s time to put him in the pen. There, he could show elite velo from the left side with an out pitch, making him an asset there immediately.

Ryan Boldt-OF
Boldt is your typical 4th OF prospect who can hit for some power, but his bat isn’t interesting enough to merit a starting role. He projects to play in a corner OF spot, probably LF given his weak arm.

Griffin Roberts-SP
Roberts had one of the best breaking balls in this year draft class, showing off a 70 grade slider. Depending on development of a third pitch (a change, which is merely below average now but could be average later on), he might be a decent backend starter, but a more interesting role would be a multinning RP fireman who can come in when needed and be trusted up for multiple batters. Unfortunately, Roberts tested positive twice for cannabis, and will be suspended 50 games next year.

Victor Mesa Jr -OF
The younger brother of VVM got a million dollars to sign with his brother in Miami, but it seems more of a favor to his older brother as most people agreed if that he wasn’t in the same family, his bonus would have been in the low 6 figures. He doesn’t project to have much power, nor much speed, which means a corner profile role with a fringe average bat. He projects as a 4th OF.

Rainer/Ryson Polonius-SS
The polonius twins are raw balls of clay, who are twitchy and athletic, but have little exposure to baseball. The upside is interesting here, but they will probably stay within the rookie ball levels for the next 2-3 years at least.



Sleepers
Drew Rasmussen-RP
Griffin Jax-RP

Two no-name prospects don’t seem terribly fun, but Rasmussen and Jax both have unique back stories. Rasmussen looked like a day two pick for this year’s draft until he had a second TJ surgery; now, instead of looking like a SP prospect, he projects as a flamethrower RP prospect with a high 90’s fastball and above average secondaries…….if he can stay healthy.

Jax was a 3rd round pick a couple years ago by the Twins, but because he attended the Air Force Academy for college, he was required to serve in the Air Force for a couple years. As it is, he only made 12 starts in the two years before he was drafted, but after being accepted into the Air Force World Class Athlete Program, he was cleared to play this year in high A. He’s noted for his strong moving fastball/changeup combo, and his ability to sequence and control his pitches, but his lack of an out pitch (both his slider and curve grade below average) leave a lot to be desired. Realistically, if he improves one of his secondaries, he could be a backend starter.


Summary
This farm is similarly deep as the Rangers and Cubs farm with enough high end impact for me to feel comfortable here, with enough interesting flier guys (Shumpei, Ryson and Rainer, Lemons, and even Dermis Garcia) to push it up next year. Plus, while Griffin, Holmes, Sheffield may not cross the starter threshold, they have fallback options as elite bullpen/multinning arms here. And if Whitley or White can get back on track, they become easy top 100 specs for me.

[Rays GM 北海道日(Will)]

17. Detroit Tigers

1.Jorge Mateo-SS
2.Peter Alonso-1B
3.Jose Siri-OF
4.Akkill Badoo-OF
5.Patrick Sandoval-SP
6.Jake Mccarthy-OF
7.Simeon Woods Richardson-SP
8.Joe Palumbo-SP
9.Owen Miller-SS
10.Jake Burger-3B
11.Erik Swanson-SP
12.Josh Stowers-OF
13.Taylor Walls-SS
14.Thomas Pannone-SP
15.JJ Matjevic-OF
16.Bobby Wahl-RP



Jorge Mateo-SS
Mateo has some of the best tools in the minors (80 grade speed, average raw power, ability to play SS), but his inability to consistently hit, his free swinging approach, and whispers of maturity issues all plague him. Its unbelievably frustrating, because if he was simply a well adjusted player, he’d be a top 15 fantasy prospect Instead, we have to play the guessing game with Mateo, and hope he turns into a 5 bat to let everything play. The upside is a SS who hit for a reasonable average with average to below average pop, but with elite speed. The realistic scenario is a below average offensive hitter who gets by with his speed and bursts of power, who has seasons where he’s a fringe all star. but seasons where’s a role player at best. It looks a lot like Raul Mondesi, if we’re being honest, but I believe Mateo is more talented. It’s hard to find SS with elite tools and who are close to the majors, so Mateo gets the nod here over Alonso.



Peter Alonso-1B
Alonso is going to get some Rhys Hoskins comps because of his age and big power (its scary 80 raw power), but Hoskins has a full grade better of feel to hit than Alonso. Still, Alonso has top of the scale power, with the ability to adjust and crush mistakes easily. He won’t ever be more than an average hitter, but he can take walks now and then, and projects as an average starter at 1B, with peak seasons hitting fringe all star status. But I’d admit there’s some risk factor to him, given his swing and miss issues as a 23 year old in AAA.



Jose Siri-OF
The most tooled up guy in this farm, Siri has the chance to have 5 plus tools, which is pretty ridiculous. He has a great feel for the bat, terrific bat speed, a plus arm, and the speed to cover center. However, the one thing holding him back is his addiction to swinging generously at pretty much everything. It corrupts the entire profile, and might make him a frustrating low end regular in the end, a far cry from what his physical abilities lay. Further maturation is key for him to reach his potential, but he’s already 23, and still slogging in AA, so time is running out.


Akill Baddoo -CF
Baddoo draws some polarized reviews depending on if you think he sticks in CF or not, but what he does well (Excellent plate approach, speed, power) is enough to offset his more concerning issues (meh feel for hit, swing and miss issues, possible shift to corner OF). If he sticks in CF, his bat doesn’t need much projection to become a valuable 3 war player. If he shifts to LF (40 grade arm precludes him from right), he needs to tighten up his swing and/or show enough power to become a league average regular there. But there is a high floor for Baddoo, and it’s reasonable enough to expect him to have some all star years if everything clicks.


Patrick Sandoval-SP
Sandoval walks a fine line between BP option and intriguing #4 starter, but he showed enough in a loaded Midwest league this year to convert some skeptics to believe he can stick in a rotation. He was a bit too advanced for A ball this year, showing a plus fastball, plus change, and average to above average slider/curveball that left hitters befuddled all year long. The control will never be more than average, probably just fringe, but that’s good enough given the quality of his stuff. He projects as a K driven mid rotation starter after progressing well this year.


Jake Mccarthy-OF
McCarthy fell in this year’s draft due to injuries, but he showed first rounder tools for long stretches in his college career. He projects as 5:4 bat, who has plus speed to stick in center and no gaping holes in his approach. There’s also belief he’ll show more power with a swing tweak that aims for more flyballs, so there’s a chance McCarthy has more upside than initially believed. If he doesn’t tap into the power, he’s a league average regular at CF.


Simeon Woods Richardson-SP
Richardson is an advanced, physically developed teenager without much projection left, but that’s okay because he already is flashing three above average pitches as a pro, flashing a FB, curve, change that will work well in the upper minors and majors. Depending on how you feel about him, the only thing left is for him to gain some consistency, polish, and reps to continue honing his delivery so his command improves, but the stuff present is largely good enough for a BP role, and an improved change makes him rotation worthy.


Joe Palumbo-SP
Palumbo was a promising pitching spec until missing most of 2017 due to TJ surgery. At his height, he’ll show a mid 90’s fastball, a plus curve, and a change that might one day flash average, which is good enough for a mid rotation role if the command continues to progress. But obviously, TJ surgery knocked him out, and command was slow to come back in his limited 2018 showings. Texas will take it slow with him, but we’ll have to check back in 2019 to see where he lands. Right now, I have him conservatively as late inning BP guy.


Owen Miller-2B
Externally, Owen Miller didn’t receive much praise or hype on draft day from scouting publications. Internally, the Padres were ecstatic to pick him in the 3rd round. He’s shown he can flat out hit in his pro debut, which is why the Padres believed him to be undervalued despite showing bland tools across the board as a middle infielder. He’ll show a quick swing with good feel for the zone, and has received praise for hit bat to ball abilities. The power is merely below average, but it doesn’t matter if he becomes the 6 bat he’s shown he can be early on. He projects to move quick, with a midseason promotion in 2020 as the most likely outcome.


Jake Burger -3B
There is perhaps no one more unlucky in Minor League Baseball than Jake Burger. Burger tore his achilles in February of last year, then tore it again in May, which means he won’t be back at the earliest until May of this year, but considering the trauma of two torn achilles, I expect to not see him back until late next year, perhaps Fall Instructs. Burger already had questions about mobility at 3B when drafted, so now there will be even more in light of the injuries. Assuming he recovers, he still projects as a bat with a fringe average hit tool, but considerable raw power at his disposal, and who should theoretically move quick as a league average 3B. But too much of this profile is in the air with the injury, and if it forces him to 1B, he becomes a less valuable asset.

Erik Swanson-SP
As the second piece in the Paxton deal along with Justus Sheffield (LOL Dipoto), Swanson projects pretty reasonably as a swingman pitcher who uses deception, feel for control, and two average pitches (fastball and slider) to make his home as a utility pitcher type. There’s an outside chance he projects as a #4/5 starter (and it doesn’t hurt he’s now moving to Safeco),so there’s some untapped upside here if a third average pitch comes along. Otherwise, it’s a bland profile, but a profile that is knocking on the ML doorsteps.


Josh Stowers-OF
Stowers went off late in his NCAA career, saving his junior season from an ice cold start, and he got drafted in the 2nd round by the Mariners. Stowers is a bit of a tweener, with not enough speed/range/glove to handle CF, and not enough power to handle a corner spot as an average regular. But he has good feel for hitting with a solid approach, and there’s moderate enough power to be a low end regular somewhere in the OF. Probably the most intriguing guy on the backend of this Tigers list, who can catch some people by surprise thanks to his bat.


Taylor Walls-2B
Walls mashed in A ball a 22 year old, which isn’t overtly impressive at that age, but he showed a knack to draw walls, has good base running skills, and plays up the middle. That’s a great start to a profile, but a lack of power and a fringey hit tool will likely relegate him to a utility role; meanwhile, his speed profiles no higher than average, so we’ll see if the SB’s keep coming for Walls in the upper minors. He’ll probably only work at 2B given his average arm and range, which does limit his versatility. I want to see Walls in a more age appropriate league next year, because while the stats are impressive, the scouting report is more mundane. If he keeps hitting, I’ll move him up.


Thomas Pannone-SP
Pannone has plus command, and he’s going to need it, because the fastball sits in the 89-90 range, although it does play up thanks to movement and his ability to locate it. The curve and change flash above average, but more consistently average than not. It’s a backend profile that needs every drop of command to squeeze out a ML role. He projects as a swingman.


JJ Matijevic-OF
Matijevic was merely fine as a 23 year old in high A this year, showing power and some defensive versatility at LF, but the swing and miss issues, lack of patience are concerning. I just dont think he hits enough to profile, which is a shame, because the raw power is plus. It’s just that it’s the only thing he does well.


Bobby Wahl-RP
Wahl’s poor command undermines his plus fastball, plus curve combo. If he corrects it, he’s a good middle RP, but his upside is limited by a lack of an elite pitch and always fringey command.


Sleeper
Brandon Wagner-1B

Wagner has a solid approach at the plate and is known his high career OBP in the minors, but it wasn’t until this year when he became more flyball oriented that he started mashing taters. The power here is mostly average to above average, and there’s still a bit too much swing and miss here, but Wagner is again another Yankee draft prospect that has upped his stock in his pro time, which makes him someone worth monitoring. He projects as a quad A guy, but his unusual hit over power profile at 1B is something that stands out. He could be higher next year with a good showing in AA.



Summary

Mmmmh. This fun was a lot more farm until a couple weeks ago, when a lot of it was let go in ML trades. The pitching here is weak. Sandoval is an interesting prospect in his own right, but he’s the only one who projects reasonably as a SP. Simeon Woods and Palumbo still project as RP prospects for now, and Swanson and Pannona are swingmans. The upper level hitting is tool laden tho - Mateo has elite speed, Alonso has elite power, and Siri can simply do everything. Mccarthy and Baddoo project as low variance CF types who have fringe all star upside if everything goes right, and some utility types like Stowers, Miller, Walls can all surprise. It’s a solid farm, that’s really buoyed only because Mateo, Alonso, Siri should at least produce one star, and a couple interesting regulars.

[Rangers GM (Bill)]

Wow! Well done Will. I’m canceling my order for the BA Prospect Handbook now. Really good read.

[Rays GM 北海道日(Will)]

Jan 19, 2019 10:29:21 GMT -5 Rangers GM (Bill) said:

Wow! Well done Will. I’m canceling my order for the BA Prospect Handbook now. Really good read.

Thanks Bill!

[Rays GM 北海道日(Will)]

16. Los Angeles Dodgers

1.Francisco Mejia-C
2.Bobby Dalbec-3B
3.Griffin Canning-SP
4.Nick Gordon-2B
5.Julio Pablo Martinez-OF
6.Beau Burrows-SP
7.Michael King-SP
8.Deivi Garcia-SP
9.Justin Steele-SP
10.Chris Shaw-1B
11.Genesis Cabrera-RP
12.Caleb Ferguson-RP
13.Tyler Beede-SP
14.Cristian Javier-SP
15.Luis Gil-SP
16.Dylan Cozens-OF
17.Max Schrock-2B
18.Alex Speas-SP


Francisco Mejia-C/OF
Mejia is as aggressive as a player can get, with an innate feel to put the bat on the ball that generates tons of contact, and an 80 arm that works well to stop the run game. He’s streaky as a player can get; for instance, he started the 2018 AAA season hitting under .200 for 2 months, then hit .450 in an entire month to raise his average. He gets into trouble when he starts chasing pitches, but because of his elite bat to ball ability, he doesn’t strike out; rather, he generates tons of weak contact instead. At this point, that’s probably who he is, so you’re going to have to live with it. Some months, he’ll kill your team, but some months, he’ll carry it. I think he stick at catcher if he puts the work in, but if he needs to shift, that 80 arm would look wonderful in RF. He projects as a 55 at catcher.


Bobby Dalbec-3B
I’m an upside guy, so when I see a 3B with plus plus raw power projection and who has shown an improved feel to hit, I take an instant liking. Dalbec’s career has largely been inconsistent, and after a hamate injury sunk his 2017 year, a lot of people began to question if he should switch to pitching, where his natural arm strength would play well. Instead, Dalbec mashed this year, showing elite power, and a better understanding of the strike zone. He’s a smart hitter who is keen on improving, and thanks to his cannon arm, can impact the game defensively. He projects to be a 40 grade hitter whose elite power output and strong defense can keep him as regular in the major leagues. But obviously, thanks to his elite tools but poor ability to make contact, outcomes can range from All Star to quad A guy.

Griffin Canning-SP
Canning doesn’t have the same upside as Dalbec, but projects safely as a #3/4 starter who can contribute immediately. He’s intensely smart, who knows how to sequences pitches and loves to live out of the zone, which contributes to his high walk and K rates. His diverse repertoire confuses batter, and while no patch projects as plus, the sum of is greater than the parts thanks to his command and attack plan. The one thing that concerns evaluators is his spotty medical history and overuse in college at UCLA.


Nick Gordon-2B
Gordon projects to be an average 2B who’ll debut late next year, who can flash average to below average pop, with decent speed to swipe 15 bags per year at his peak. The problem is that his profile, when coming into the draft, was largely rested on his contact oriented profile, but in effort to generate more power, he’s exposed to himself to a lot of swing and miss issues. He got exposed in AAA, and as a 23 year old next season, it’s really important for him to show he can balance contact and power to be a viable regular at the ML level. He would be perfectly fine at SS, but most people expect Royce Lewis to push him off at that position soon.


Julio Pablo Martinez-OF
Julio is known for his power and speed, and he showed that off in the NorthWest League this year. Most believe he’ll stick in CF, where his value fringe arm fits well. The stats aren't completely as overwhelming as you’d expect for a big 22 year old signing in the NWL league, but that was due to some rawness in his game that needs to be ironed out. The contact ability here is more fringey due to his long path to the ball, but there’s enough here to project him as an above average everyday regular who can do a little bit of everything, but not really exceed in anything.


Beau Burrows-SP
In a league where starting pitching is becoming name only, there’s a lot of need for guys who can fill multi-innings roles, even if they might not be able to turn over a lineup 3 times over. This is where Burrows comes in. He shows a plus fastball in the mid 90’s that has plenty of movement, but the rest of his secondaries generally project to average or a hair below it. To remain a starter, he’s going to need at least another above average pitch, because the incredibly depth of pitching the Tigers have assembled mean that someone might get squeezed out. He’s only 21, so there’s still plenty of time to improve.


Michael King-SP
There’s a lot of disagreement over King, as some love him and project him as a mid rotation guy who can make an impact early as next year, while some see a long relief man. King will show a heavy two seamer that he locates well to get ground balls, a plus changeup that dives away from batters, and a slider that projects as average. He excels at getting ground balls, but he’s going to have to show pinpoint command to fulfill his ceiling as a mid rotation starter. A more likely scenario is a backend guy who relies on his sinking fastball and change to have a long career.


Deivi Garcia-SP
Garcia is the perfect candidate for the future the game has evolved too in recent years. He’s not durable enough to handle a starter’s workload, but his power stuff (high spin fastball and curve that exceed 3000 RPMs) is too good for one innings bursts. He can pitch multi-innings and dominate, like 2017 Brad Peacock. His progression in control was a big reason for his breakout last year, but focusing on improving his change will be key for him to be a major prospect.



Justin Steele-SP
Steele’s stuff is more lively and gives him a better shot at starting than the guys above him. He’ll show a mid 90’s fastball, potentially plus curve, and feel for a change and slider that both play to average. There’s a chance he contributes in 2019, but I want to wait to see if he’s fully recovered from TJ surgery that wiped out the end of his 2017 and most of his 2018. If he has, he’ll rank a lot higher than this next year and might graduate entirely.


Chris Shaw-1B/LF
Shaw has terrific power, but he’s overly eager in trying to tap into it, which leads to ugly peripherals. He doesn’t project enough to be a three true outcomes player because he doesn’t walk enough, which severely limits his value to just Hrs and SLG in fantasy formats. The good news is he sounds playable in LF, which should be good enough for him to be a power lefty bat off the bench.


Genesis Cabrera-LHP
Cabrera is one of the more interesting RP prospects in the game, who shows a deep arsenal of fringe average pitches, to go along with a fastball that touches the high 90’s out of the pen. As a lefty, that should be good enough to play in the majors, and his ability to go through multiple batters can be exploited as a multi-inning RP piece.


Caleb Ferguson-SP
Ferguson is a ML ready RP that can show a high 90’s fastball with a sharp curve that works well. He does have a changeup, but it’s rarely used. There’s a chance he can develop into a starter given his frame and makeup, but the Dodgers badly need impact relievers, and Ferguson is the best bet to do so as soon as next year.


Tyler Beede-SP
Beede’s stuff is exciting (Plus fastball, curve, average to above average change and slider), but it’s always played down thanks to increasingly erratic control and fluctuating velocity. After walking 56 batters in 74 innings at AAA, it’s time to shelve him into the pen where he can make impact as a high leverage reliever.


Christian Javier-SP
Javier only has fringey, low 90’s fastball, but has excellent feel for spinning it, a curve, and a slider. The command hasn’t progressed as many as would hope, and there won’t be an uptick in stuff with his limited frame. But there’s enough bat missing ability and command to fill in a ML role here. It’s just that, without an improvement in command, it probably wont be a starting role.


Luis Gil-SP
Luis Gil is another high velocity arm in a Yankees system filled to the top with them. He can touch triple digits and flash a plus curve, but his command has been largely non existent in his career. Still, his athletic frame, simple delivery leads some to hope he can figure it out. If he does, he could be a monster, but he also needs to add a changeup to fit the starter profile. For now, he projects as an elite RP.


Dylan Cozens-OF
Cozens is interesting because he’s got near elite power, and is a good athlete for his size. But he’s a corner OF (most likely left, thanks to a below average arm), and he hasn’t hit remotely enough to profile at the ML level yet. But there’s a chance he could break out.


Max Schrock-2B
Schrock is completely dependent on his contact ability, because everything else is fringey to below average (his power, in this case). He didn’t hit as a 24 year old in the PCL last year, so time’s ticking to see if he can stick.


Alex Speas-SP
Speas has a brutal one two punch in his fastball and curve, but it’s undermined by his occasionally wild control, and a lack of a 3rd pitch. He projected as a RP at the highest level where both pitches and 45 control would be enough to profile. He had TJ surgery last year, and will likely be out until 2020.


Sleeper
Brenan Hanifee-SP
Hanifee is a guy I really like as someone who can surprise next year. He’s a projectable 6’5” 180 Ibs, and while his fastball velo is a bit more fringey now at the low 90’s, he excels in getting ground balls with its sinking action. His slider also projects to be plus, although it’s rather inconsistent right now. Getting stronger, improving on his rawness in the command section is key to rising up the rankings. But the raw ingredients are here to move up.


Summary
There’s a lot of high probability contributors here, who, while don’t have star level upside (Mejia, Gordon, Canning, JPM, King, Burrows, Steele) should do well to supplement the team in the majors right now. Combine that with some high impact relief pitching, a few interesting role players, and a major wild card in Dalbec, and this farm is sitting nicely with a balance of risk and reward.

[Rays GM 北海道日(Will)]

15. San Diego Padres

1.Luis Urias-SP
2.Hunter Greene-SP
3.Joey Wentz-SP
4.Logan Allen-SP
5.Michael Baez-SP
6.Wander Javier-SS/2B
7.Anthony Banda-SP
8.Tyler Phillips-SP
9.Tristan Beck-SP
10.Franciso Morales-SP
11.Luis Rengifo-2B
12.Miguel Vargas-3B
13.MC Contreras-OF
14.Jairo Pomares-OF
15.Cady Grenier-2B
16.Keyber Rodriguez-OF
17.Gregory Soto-SP
18.Jose Israel Garcia-SS



Luis Urias-2B
Short players are taking over baseball. Between Altuve, Jose, and Albies, a lot of people have taken notice of the pint sized players. “Tom Cruise Mighty Mites” (as I like to call them), are the next big thing. Urias is the next one to hit the show. He’s got terrific bat control, an elite hit tool, a strong approach at the plate, and the chops to easily stay at 2B. He has enough pop for 15 Hr’s in today’s game, which should make him a fringe all star. He’s the top prospect in the real life Padres farm imo.

Hunter Greene-SP
Greene’s pro debut year didn’t go as well as you’d have hoped, with a disastrous first month (Greene was often wild at times, and his stuff proved to be a bit too hittable), but he righted the ship showing better poise, with an improved slider that flashed plus, a marked progression from his HS days. Then, when he was on fire, he underwent TJ surgery. So overall, not great. But the talent is still intact -- we’re talking an 80 fastball, future plus slider, and a potential above average changeup here, with premium athleticism that projects to above average, even plus command. His makeup still receives praise, and it’s his uncommon combination of ability and maturity that has people still high on him. Expect the Reds to take it slow with him and let him pitch a bit in 2019 instructs, but I won’t be surprised if we don’t see him in real action until 2020. I’m ranking him this high because there’s still a reasonable chance he becomes a potential front of the line starter, and there’s maybe 5 pitchers in the entire minors who I can put that label on right now.


Joey Wentz-SP
Wentz struggled with injuries this year, which is a shame because he looked like he might be the next big riser in the Braves farm at times. Athletic, strong framed, and projectable, Wentz at times before 2018 looked like a future #2 pitcher, showing a mid 90’s fastball and plus curves and change. But injuries sapped him this year, and his FB velo dipped into the 80’s this year. His stuff isn’t always consistent, but there’s hope with more growth his stuff comes along. He projects as a fringe #3 starter.


Logan Allen-SP
Allen profiles easily as a safe backend starter, whose plus change and advanced command are promising indicators for a high floor. But his velo became more fringey this year, sitting in the low 90’s, so there’s worries he might not have enough stuff to stick in the majors. I think he does, and fits in well as a #5 starter in a future loaded Padres rotation.


Michael Baez-SP
Baez was monstrous in 2017, but regressed in 2018. His velo flucuated from the high 90’s to the low 90’s, and his command didn’t progress as much as you liked. There’s a lot of moving parts in his delivery, and with the immense depth the Padres have an organization, there’s a good chance they’d be OK with moving him in a deal or slotting him into the bullpen. 2019 will be a big year for him, as AA will be a good test to see if he recovers his form. The upside here is the highest on this list, but the odds have shifted unfavorably for Baez in the past calendar month.


Wander Javier-SS/2B
Javier has played a grand total of 50 games in 3 years, but he ranks this highly because while he isn’t elite at one thing, he’s so well rounded and able to do anything on the field as a SS. He has 55’s across the board, starting with a projectable frame that leads to above average pop in the future, run times that result in moderate SB counts, and a whippy bat that generates a good amount of contact. Now, he suffered from a torn labrum this year, so it’s key to see how well he rebounds from that injury fielding wise, where he might shift to 2B. He needs to be less aggressive and cut down on chases, but if he’s healthy and makes those changes, I don’t see why he can’t be a 55 2B who can do it all.


Anthony Banda-SP
Banda lost his 2018 season due to TJ, and probably won’t be back until 2020. I still like him. He has a mid 90’s fastball that he can dial it up to a big higher when needed, a plus curve, and a change that was inching towards average before surgery. His command has come and gone at times in his exposure to AAA and the majors, and it will take time before it fully comes back after surgery. We might not see the top version of Banda until 2 years down the road, but the upside is a mid rotation starter.


Tyler Phillips-SP
Philips was a gangly, tall northeastern prep pitcher in 2015, and it took a few years for him to adjust to pro ball as he was behind the curve and struggled to rein in his command thanks to his frame. That changed in 2018, when he righted the ship in A ball, and rode his plus changeup, mid 90’s fastball, and new found average command to a banner season in A ball, and gained a promotion to High A. He’s done an excellent job of sharpening his control, but was a bit hittable, so he’ll need more work on command. But he limits Hr’s thanks to his downward extension. The upside is a #3 starter.


Tristan Beck-SP
Beck suffered through a slew of injury problems in Stanford, and was a big reason why he fell to the Braves in this year’s draft. Still, the stuff is very promising, with a power fastball and curve, and depending on who you listen too, a good changeup. He’s polished, and has a chance to move quick as a #3 starter. But the health issues knock him down a grade, because no one’s sure he can stand up to the rigors of professional baseball.


Francisco Morales-SP
Another pitcher! Morales has terrific upside, with a power fastball and slider combo that makes hitters look foolish, but given his monstrous frame and young age, it wasn’t too surprising to see him struggle in A ball this year. The arm delivery isn’t always pretty, but he’s still 19, and scouts rave about his maturity, work ethic, and athleticism. There’s some projecting to do, but if it all comes together, he’s a mid rotation starter. But there’s significant RP risk.


Luis Rengifo-2B
Rengifo can do a bit of everything expect for power, where he grades below average. But his approach and otherwise wide base of tools plus ability to play up the middle means he’ll have a long career as a low end regular or plus utility guy.


Miguel Vargas-3B/1B
Vargas gets lauded for his power, approach, and feel for hit. Everyone agrees they see at worst an above average hitter in the major leagues, but most people also see a 1B. Vargas is big and a bit heavy, and there’s a good chance he shifts to 1B in the future where his bat will face a lot of pressure. But he’s going to get every chance to stick because the bat is one of the best in the Dodger’s system.


MC Gregory Contreras-OF

Contreras has a broad base of tools, where he can run, hit, hit for power, and play all three OF positions. But he has worrisome approach issues, and struggles with identifying different pitches as they come out of a pitcher’s hand. His debut in short A ball confirmed these issues, but a bigger test will be full season ball next year. The upside here is intriguing, but unless he improves his approach, he’s gonna get mauled in the higher minors.


Jairo Pomares-OF
Pomares has a clean swing with developing power, and is considered one of the most well rounded hitters in this year’s IFA class. What’s more interesting is whether he can stay in CF, where some believe he might stick thanks to near plus speed. But if he lands in the corner, the bat should play well there.


Cadyn Grenier-2B
Grenier is a glove first candidate at 2B, where he’s serve as one of the best defenders in the Orioles’s system. But his bat is expected to offer little impact, so his glove will have to carry him to a ML role.


Keyber Rodriguez-OF
Rodriguez is a polished, instinctual player who’s known for his sweet swing and versatility (He’s able to play across the IF and perhap OF where his speed plays well), but most don’t see any power now (or any power to come). He projects as a utility man.


Gregory Soto-SP
Soto struggled again with his command this year, and its become very clear his crossfire delivery isn’t going to cut it as a starter. Oh well. He has a strong two pitch mix in his fastball and slider, both which should play up in relief, and thanks to that and his delivery, he should be hell on lefties while still more than serviceable against righties. If the Tigers commit to him in the pen (which they should, given they have about 8 better SP prospects), he could fly up the ladder.



Jose Israel Garcia-SS
Garcia hasn’t remotely looked like the big IFA signeed he was made out to be, with his apparent lack of strength undermining him, and his body appearing thinner and weaker than before. But possesses plus speed, the required arm to stay at SS, and has some more projection remaining. The power might come. But for most of this year until the end, he looked like a fringey prospect who profiled as a utility men. He needs some strength gains to get back his previous luster.


Sleeper
Michell Miliano-SP
Miliano is an 18 year old pitcher who’s projectable, throws in the low to mid 90’s, and has good curveball feel. The delivery needs to be ironed out tho, because despite good K rates, he’s often too over the place and gets demolished for it. But the stuff and frame is promising, so he could rise with some polish next year.


Summary
The pitching here is deep, and filled with a good amount of proximity, polish, yet tantalizing upside. Urias is a top 25 prospect who’s a high probability 55, while the lower depths of the farm has a good share of hitters that can surprise you. This is a good farm, which can help immediately, with enough depth for some sleepers to breakthrough.

[Rays GM 北海道日(Will)]

14. Cleveland Indians

1.Trevor Larnach-OF
2.Marco Luciano-SS
3.Luis Patino-SP
4.Diego Cartaya-C
5.Carter Stewart-SP
6.Kyle Isbel-2B
7.Nick Schnell-OF
8.Luis Oviedo-SP
9.Jason Groome-SP
10.Kevin Newman-SS
11.Aaron Ashby-SP
12.Jeremy Eierman-SS
13.Richie Palacios-SS
14.Drew Mendoza-3B
15.Trevor Rogers-SP
16.Jorge Alcala-RP
17.Durbin Feltman-RP
18.Brennen Davis-OF
19.Steven Gingery-SP
20.Sean Guilbe-2B
21.Gunnar Hoglund-SP
22.Seth Elledge-RP
23.Taj Bradley-SP
24.Fernando Ortega-SP
25.Yonathan Perlaza-SP
26.Noah Bryant-SP


Trevor Larnach-OF
Scouts raved about Larnach’s combination of polish and immense power, and it showed in a powerful pro debut. Larnach’s main calling cards is his fined tuned offensive approach that yields walks and double plus raw power. In his junior year at OSU, Larnach started tapping into his power with a swing tweak, and some pro scouts believe there’s more to come. His strong arm is more than a good fit in right, and he’s expected to move quick. He projects as an above average league regular, but more tinkering with his swing can yield an all star player.



Marco Luciano-SS
Luciano wasn’t the clear cut top prospect in this year IFA’ class (He and Cartaya are neck and neck in most rankings), but he has the “wow” factor award won. A lithe but powerful looking player, Luciano will show an explosive swing that generates tremendous pop for a middle IF, and given that’s he’s projectable, there might be even more power in here. It’s true power to all fields, and his hit tool, while not as outstanding as his power tool, is considered more than able to play thanks to a combination of bat speed, sound approach, and ability to spray the ball to all fields. He might move to CF in the future, but expect the Giants to start him out at SS where his strong arm will more than play. He can do everything - hit, hit with power, run, throw, field, and arm. He’s not in the class of uber IFA specs like Vlad, Shohei or Wander, but he’s in the next step down. He’ll start in the AZL next year as the Giants are widely believed to push him; they love his makeup and work ethic, and have him pegged as their SS for the future.


Luis Patino-SP
Perhaps the best 18 year old pitcher in the world, Patino combines premium athleticism, premium stuff, and surprising polish for a teenager into a package that took the MILB world by storm last year. He’s a bit to small for most evaluators, but he’s shown uncommon poise for an 18 year old in full season ball last year. To continue improving, he’ll need to show better feel for changeup, which is rather undeveloped now, but given how dominant he was last year, he won’t need it for awhile. Plus, given his elite ability to rotate and maximize his stuff, there’s an expectation his stuff will continue to improve as he gets stronger and ages. There’s frontline upside here.




Diego Cartaya-C
IFA catchers are a risky category, but Cartaya is as good as they come. He already projects to easily stay behind the plate, where his combination of plus arm, polished receiving ability, and strong frame are all positives for him. As a hitter, he’s hit over power with great feel for the strike zone, which is an attribute I especially like IFA signings. Given his frame and projection, I still see league average power down the road for him. He might 5-6 years away, but his maturity, polish, and makeup are all strong indicator he can develop into a franchise catcher.


Carter Stewart-SP
On a physical level, Stewart’s talent’s are monstrous. He’s 6’6” 200 IBs, throws in the mid to upper 90’s, has a true 70 curveball, and has the projection to add even more. Unfortunately, a medical exam turned up a wrist ailment, and that was enough for the Braves to try negotiate a smaller bonus with him. No dice. Stewart is now headed to JUCO (where he’ll easily be the best prospect there by a laughable margin) to re-enter the draft next year, where he’ll probably ended in the exact same position. The upside is still as high as draft day, but the release of a wrist injury leads to some uneasiness for me, especially with the crapshoot that is HS pitchers.


Kyle Isbel-OF/2B
Isbel was a standout at UNLV, and was known for his pure hitting ability and versatility. He was excellented in his pro debut, and flashed plus hit abiliy, average raw pop, and the ability to play up the middle (2B) or in the OF. I wouldn’t expect anything more than a versatile, average regular, but his broad base of tools gives hima high floor.


Nick Schnell-OF
Schnell’s upside is exciting. People rave about his swing, which is composed of plus bat speed, strong hands, and short, direct path to the ball. He’s also an exceptional athlete with his combination of strength, speed, and size. He’s projectable now, with the chance to have average pop down the line, and there’s even a chance he sticks in CF, although RF is more likely. He does everything reasonably well, and realistically projects as an above average regular. If everything breaks right, however, he could be a star.


Luis Oviedo-SP
Oviedo broke out this year, showing reasonable feel for a wide swath of secondaires to go along with a plus fastball that hums in the mid 90’s. The present stuff is promising, but he’s going to need to do some more growing (and at 6’4”, 170, that seems likely) and filling in to max out his stuff. If he does, he projects as a mid rotation starter.


Jason Groome-SP
Groome has had, to say mildly, a poor debut in the minors, thanks to inconsistencies, control issues, whisper of makeup problems, and now TJ surgery. The stuff is still electric (The curve still gets plus plus grades), but its been almost 3 years now, and he’s pitched 62 mediocre innings. He needs to show something this year, and despite his obvious potential, I’m of the mind that anything positive he shows this year will be a pleasant surprise.


Kevin Newman-2B/SS
Newman is probably the first guy on this list that ranks for his proximity, and not for his upside. He doesn’t project to offer much offensive impact, because despite his clearly plus feel for contact, it’s mostly ground balls and weakly hit ones. His best tools are his speed (plus), which can lead to 20 plus steals per year, but that won’t manifest unless he gets on base enough. He projects as a fringe regular at 2B, because SS is being reserved for the more talented Cole Tucker who’s just a level behind him.


Aaron Ashby-SP
Ashby has some of the sneakiest, best stuff in the minors, especially when you consider he’s a lefty. He has a wide base of pitches (FB, SL, CB, CH), with the slider and curve flashing plus regularly. What matters now is how his command progresses, which should dictate his future role. At worst, he’s a matchup nightmare out of the bullpen, but I’m optimistic. I’ll project him as a backend starter who can move quick.


Jeremy Eierman-SS/3B
Remember how I said the A’s love taking high floor college hitters with their 2nd round picks? Well, Eierman is the perfect example of this. He’s got plus power with terrific exit velos, but his lack of range, mediocre feel for the bat, and sometimes iffy approach will relegate him to a second division regular type who can play ss, but should probably be shifted to 3rd due to a plus arm. But there’s a chance he stays at SS, where his power will make him an above average regular. He was a first round talent early this year, but fell due to a slow start in his junior year.


Richie Palacios-SS
Palacios was a pretty intriguing sleeper in this year’s draft class, who had a plus hit tool and a terrific grasp of the strike zone to go along with near 70 speed. Projected at 2B, he smashed his way to A ball, and really took a lot of the minor league by surprise. Palacios is your typical Indians position prospect. He doesn’t project to have much in tools besides his speed(40 power, stuck at 2B), but has most of his value tied up in his hit tool and polish. He projects to move quick, and could be a really interesting league average offensive minded 2B.


Drew Mendoza-3B
Mendoza already projects as an early 2nd round pick in next year’s draft, showing big pop in the ACC as a seminole, and a plus arm that works well at 3B. More concerning is his size (will he outgrow 3B?) and his stagnant swing and miss issues, which haven’t really improved as much from year 1 to year 2 of his college career. He’s an interesting prospect with intriguing upside, but needs a better showing this spring to unlock 1st round potential.


Trevor Rogers-SP
Rogers looked like a potential monster in HS (Up to the high 90’s, projection for two above average pitches, good athlete with massive size for a LHP), but has regressed a bit to a far too hittable low 90’s fastball, below average curve, and average changeup. He needs a lot of work to just become a backend starting pitcher now, but there’s not a lot of things he does well besides his size. Even then, his massive frame is a big reason why his stuff and control fluctuates so much. The only reason he ranks this high is because there’s a 5% chance he clicks, and then he can be really, really good.



Jorge Alcala-RP
Alcala is a frustrating pitcher who shows, on his best days a mid 90’s fastball with promising secondaries, but on his worst seems to be a RP prospect. I think Alcala can make more impact in the pen, where he can touch triple digits and focus on one secondary pitch (a slider, most likely) which can make him a deadly option there. His ceiling is a K heavy 4th starter, but a realistic scenario would be a very good late inning guy.



Durbin Feltman-RP
Two elite pitches (fastball, slider) plus good enough control means Feltman will probably be the first high impact pitcher to emerge from this year’s draft class. He should be pitching in Boston this year, because he’s simply too good for the minors. There’s a good chance this might be Boston’s closer of the future.




Brennen Davis-OF
Davis has a gorgeous frame plus a startlingly good background in football to go along with his baseball acumen, which means he’s your classic projection bet. He has terrific genes and makeup, and his ability to play CF, hit for power, run, and throw can make him a star. Of course, those kinds of guys don’t fall unless they can hit, and most in the industry had him at a 4 bat at best in the end. But Davis was better than expected in his AZL debut, and if he even breaches expectations by a little bit and becomes a merely below average hitter, he’s an all star caliber player.



Steven Gingery-SP
An ugly delivery and a torn UCL has Gingery, one of the better performers in college, falling on draft day. At his best, he’ll show a mundane arsenal buoyed by an elite change and good control, making him a typical pitchability lefty who can move quick, and who can become a backend starter. The Cardinals have no issues with taking pitchability lefties, and assuming his stuff comes back, Gingery should be one of the best. But there’s obvious risk here given his health history, and the upside really isn’t that exciting.



Sean Guilbe-2B
Guilbe is undeniably raw, who has generally poor feel to hit and will likely never be more than a below average hitter. But the bat speed is excellent, and he knows how to take a walk. This combination of power and patience isn’t always common in middle infielders, so he’s def worth a flier. But realistically, he projects as a guy who can make some noise on some lists thanks to his profile, but doesn’t become anything more than an up and down guy unless he makes some major strides within the next few years.


Gunnar Hoglund-SP
Hoglund was a classic projection arm that took off this spring and starting hitting the upper 90’s with a curve that flashed plus. A two way athlete with a good pitching frame, it was easy to dream on him becoming something much more with some growth and professional teaching. Alas, he spurned the pirates(lol) and went to Ole Miss for college. He’s a guy who can become a 1st round pick easily in 3 years, but that’s a long ways away.


Seth Elledge-RP
Elledge’s lack of plus pitches and/or control will relegate him to the pen, but he’s deceptive, and his fastball/slider combo will play well in relief. He lacks any kind of elite velocity (sitting mostly in the low 90’s), so we’re talking a 7th inning rp prospect here who can move quick.


Taj Bradley-SP
Bradley was one of the youngest players in his draft class this year, and is your typical athlete who’s raw but has a promising curve already. Interesting lottery ticket, but lack of projection stifles anything too crazy to dream on.


Fernando Ortega-SP
Ortega is a lanky pitcher who has lots of projection remaining, who’s advanced with three pitches that already flash average to above average. But he’s inconsistent mechanically, which should improve with repetitions. The Phillies are aces at developing projectable pitchers like this, so he’s a promising IFA guy to keep an eye on.


Yonathan Perlaza-SS
Perlaza is a lot like other Cubs IFA middle IF’s, who have a high motor, good feel to hit, but not much else. He’s undeniably polished for his age, but he’s realistically a backup guy who can move quicker than others. It’s not much, but sometimes those guys turn out to be like Reivaj Garcia or Isaac Paredes with a better showing of power.


Noah Bryant-RP
Bryant is an interesting RP prospect who flash great arm speed, who can whip it into the high 90’s with a hard slider. But he’s new to pitching, so it’ll take him some time to develop. But with his raw stuff, there’s a lot of promise here.


Sleeper
CJ Willis-C
Willis is headed to college, as a shoulder injury led him to sliding along with signability concerns with LSU. But he has surprising feel to hit, alongst with good pop, and an above average arm. He’s a great athlete, but injury concerns obviously cloud his future. But don’t be surprised if he turns himself into a day two pick at LSU down the road.


Summary
Pretty much everyone in this farm is years from making an impact, but the upside here is oustanding (Luciano is the single most talented guy I’ve talked about so far, from a baseball standpoint at least). There’s also a deep crop of young guys at the bottom who are raw and light years away, but there’s potential here. This farm is going to move up big time next year, but I want to hold my horses a bit until some of these guys (Stewart, Luciano, Cartaya, Mendoza) get some pro experience, where evaluations are a lot more accurate.

[Rays GM 北海道日(Will)]

13. Kansas City Royals
1.Mackenzie Gore-SP
2.MJ Melendez-C
3.Micker Adolfo-OF
4.Nate Pearson-SP
5.Dylan Cease-SP
6.Ryan Mountcastle-LF
7.Adam Kloffenstein-SP
8.Cal Quantrill-SP
9.Buddy Reed-OF
10.Blake Rutherford-OF
11.Nick Pratto-1B
12.Kevin Kramer-2B
13.Eli White-SS
14.Taylor Clarke-SP
15.Sean Hjelle-SP
16.Brandon Bailey-SP
17.Tyler Ivey-SP
18.Riley Pint-SP
19.Dylan Coleman-SP
20.Thomas Hatch-RP
21.Elijah Cabell-OF
22.Jonathan Sierra-OF
23.Kendrick Calilao-OF
24.Marcelo Martinez-SP


Mackenzie Gore-SP
Gore had a decent year in A ball, but it wasn’t as statistically dominant as expected. Chalk it up to blister problems, which plagued him all year. When he’s healthy, he’ll show 4 above average to plus pitches, with his curveball and slider consistently getting plus grades. Furthermore, he’s an elite athlete that is able to repeat an unorthodox delivery that gets great extension and flummoxes batters, and knows where to spot his pitches. Here’s hoping that he’s healthy next year, because at his best, he projects as a #1 starter who has the complete package.




MJ Melendez-C
Melendez is an athletic marvel at catcher, with great flexibility that leads to plus receiving grades, a plus arm, and chance for plus power at the plate. He does swing and miss too much, and no one predicts he’ll be anything more than a fringe average hitter, but the tools are so explosive for a catcher that it won’t matter. There’s a long horizon to a ML debut (he’ll start in A ball next year) and the risk is high (30% K rate in Low A last year), but the upside is higher than any catcher in the minors right now.


Micker Adolfo-OF
Adolfo is about 5 months in a TJ rehab that cost him about half of 2018. He projects to be back sometime in early May, which is good, because he’s one of the most talented power hitter in the MILB. Its loud, double plus raw power based on raw strength and terrific bat speed. He fits cleanly in RF, where his plus arm plays, but his feel for hitting, selectivity, bat control are subpar. He was making progress in 2018 before his season was cut short, but now he’ll need to start again. At his ceiling, he projects as a .250 hitter with 30 HR power, but he is a long way from this outcome.

Nate Pearson-SP
Pearson lost most of 2018 to a broken ulna caused by a stay comebacker, which wiped out a developmental year badly needed by one of the most exciting prospects in baseball. Pearson can dial it up to 103 MPH with a 95 MPH fastball, but it seems awfully scary to bet on him holding up to a starter’s workload with that kind of strain on him. He projects as an elite reliever with two 80 graded pitches, but there’s a chance he turns into a starter if he makes big progress with his changeup and control next year.

Dylan Cease-SP
Cease had a dominant year in A+, and AA, showing off a knockout fastball-curve combo that flirts with double plus grades. He showed better command in years past, and utilized an up tempo delivery to blow past batters at that level. Cease still struggles with his feel for pitching, and his height is still a concern and may leave him vulnerable to upper level hitting, and it’s not entirely clear whether he can sustain a workload of 200 innings at the ML level. He might project as a hybrid pitcher in the major leagues, one who could be used as a second opener, but if he continues to show better feel for pitching, there’s a mid rotation starter somewhere here.

Ryan Mountcastle-LF
Mountcastle gets consistent praise for his ability to hit, and hit for power, and this year he showed a better approach by taking more walks while moving up to AA. Still, he’s clearly not a fit at 3B, where his lack of arm strength (it gets grades of 30, which, good lord) won’t play. He projects to stick in LF, and while the bat is steadily above average, it’s not elite in any way, and you have to wonder how valuable it will be at LF. He projects as a league average regular at LF.


Adam Kloffenstein-SP
Kloff is probably one of the more interesting pitching prospects in the game, because his repertoire (4 average to above average pitches) and already good feel for pitching has him high above his HS peers, but his fluctuating velocity has a lot of people concerned he can start in a rotation one day. On his best days, he’ll show a sinking mid 90’s fastball that is a legit out pitch, with a plus slider and change that also flashes plus. But again, consistency with his stuff has eluded Kloff, and it’s a big reason why he slid on draft day. I have him pegged as a mid rotation starter who has the ability to eat innings given his big frame, but there’s room for even more if his stuff ticks up in pro ball.


Cal Quantrill-SP
Quantrill has seen his stock slowly slip since draft day, and he had a rough turn in AA this year, surrendering a horde of hits that led to an ugly ERA. I still buy him as a viable ML starter, because he’ll flash three above average pitches (his best being a low 80’s changeup that has nasty fade and gets some double plus grades), and his frame gives him a good chance to be a workhorse starter. His stuff isn’t consistent tho, ranging from ML mid rotation quality to swingman quality, and a lot of people suspect he’s still getting his feet under him after TJ surgery wiped out most of his career at Stanford. He gets red marks for his composure and ability to work out of jams, so it seems to me that Quantrill’s struggles are more mental than anything. He needs to learn how to bounce back from bat at bats, and focus on improving his physical condition as he moves away from his injury. He has the upside of a #3 starter, but reasonably, you’d expect a backend starter now given all the baggage.


Buddy Reed-OF
Reed has terrific athletic gifts, which manifests itself in 70 speed, and plus to double plus grades on his fielding and arm. This year, he started tinkering with his setup and flashed some of that average raw pop that got him drafted so highly, but he was 23 at A+, so let’s not get carried away. No one expects the hit tool to be anything more than below average; there’s multiple holes in his swing, and he got exposed by upper level pitchers who knew how to locate their pitches. Realistically, you hope that he hits just enough to be a bottom or the order hitter where his speed and glove will carry him, and he could be a low end regular at CF who gets SB's, runs into some HR's, and plate elite defense. He's also known for his infectious personality and can light up a clubhouse.



Blake Rutherford-OF
Rutherford was a famous HS hitter that was snapped up by the Yankees in the first round a couple years ago, but it’s clear his profile (tweener, not enough speed for CF, not enough power for LF) and age (older than most of his HS class) may have been overlooked. The tools aren’t as flashy now that he’s playing with age appropriate competition, but he’s still shown a good feel for putting his bat on the ball, and his power projects as average, which was good enough as he ran through High A this year. He projects as LF now, so it’ll be key for him to continue developing in game power to profile comfortably there. He needs to tweak his swing or setup a bit, because his swing, while pretty and projects to lead to plus averages, lacks loft. He’s on the edge of profiling in LF, and has a high floor as a quality 4th OF in the Major Leagues.


Nick Pratto-1B
Pratto drew raves for his plate discipline, hit tool, and developing power as a HS 1B, but amidst a sluggish campaign in A ball this year, a lot of the things we assumed about him were proven wrong. His elite approach quickly gave way to a horde of K issues in A ball, and his power hasn’t come on quickly as expected, as it’s more gap pop. The overall line in A ball for his 19 year old season, but you’d be forgiven if you expected a bit more. There’s still time tho, and a few good indicators was that the glove (GG potential) was as good as advertised, and he showed keen baserunning instincts by stealing 22 bases despite below average speed. He ended the year well, so there’s hope he can carry it into next year as a 20 year old in High A.


Kevin Kramer-2B
Kramer is a well rounded middle IF prospect who plays defense well enough to profile at 2B, has hit consistently well throughout his entire pro career, and has started to show some power after mechanical tweaks. He doesn’t do anything particularly well, and lacks impact speed or defensive capability, but his hit/power combo gives him a high floor. He projects as a league average regular at 2B, and despite competition from the more talented but punchless Kevin Newman, should be the pirates future at that position.


Eli White-SS
White will show excellent plate discipline and contact ability in a career year in AA, then was dealt from the A’s to the Rangers in the Profar deal. There’s aren’t any impact level tools here expect for his plus speed, and his lack of power will always keep him relegated to a reserve role. But his approach elevates his profile, and he’s versatile and able to play all across the infield. I see a valuable super-sub role for White, who lacks upside, but is ML ready for that role.


Taylor Clarke-SP
Clarke is a near read backend SP for the Diamondbacks, and while he wasn’t overly impressive in AAA, keep in mind it was the PCL, and a debut in the ML would introduce him to a much tamer home park of Chase Field. He’s got a big strong frame that can eat innings, and can show off 4 average to above average pitches that play up thanks to his ability to throw strikes. It isn’t very exciting I admit, but people are dying for SP prospects who can contribute immediately, and Clarke is that guy.


Sean Hjelle-SP
Hjells lacks an out pitch, but it really doesn’t matter, because he’s able to effectively locate those pitches, and his massive height leads to elite extension and downhill angle. He’s projectable too, with the ability to add some more giddyup to a low 90’s fastball, which he complements with his best pitch, a low 80’s curve that he uses for whiffs. He projects safely as a backend starter, but if you’re looking for a guy who can outstrip his projections, it’s Hjelle.


Brandon Bailey-SP
Bailey is your typical spin rate Astros prospect, who gets plenty of life on his fastball and change, which are generally considered his best pitches. He doesn’t have a knockout pitch after that (low 80’s curve projects as average, maybe slightly above), but he has reasonable command of his stuff, and has a shot at starting if further development of his 3rd pitch comes along. But realistically, at 5’10”, he doesn’t have the frame to start for a full season and projects as a bullpen arm who can go multiple innings.


Tyler Ivey-SP
Ivey is another intriguing astros spin rate prospect, but unlike Bailey, he has a true out pitch, a plus curve that he used to run through A ball. The command is more fringey however, and he needs to learn how to incorporate his slider (average, now) better to fill out his repertoire. There’s more risk here given the profile, but he’s 6’4” and has a better chance of starting than Bailey.


Riley Pint-SP
Pint has lost valuable development time, as a shoulder and oblique injury conversed to limit him to just 4 appearances this year. It’s a shame, because he’s looked completely lost in his first 3 season, showing ghastly control. The stuff is legit -- 100 MPH fastball, plus curve, plus slider -- but I don’t have any real hopes he can rein it in long enough to be anything more than a BP option given concerns with his durability and control. He’s a lottery ticket, but not much else at this point.


Dylan Coleman-SP
Coleman, on his best days, can flash a plus slider and a high 90’s fastball with generous sinking movement, but on his worst, can show neither and get mashed. He has a power frame (6’6” 215 Ibs), but he doesn’t always get it to line up consistently which causes the stuff to fluctuate. His control lags behind too, and he needs a 3rd pitch to become a ML starter. But he’s a good BP prospect if things fall apart, but the upside is interesting enough to make him a ML starter.


Thomas Hatch-SP
Hatch has a middling arsenal buoyed by an above average fastball and slider, but lacking any real 3rd knockout pitch. His arsenal is undeniably weaker than the arsenals of the guys listed above him, and he possesses below average control to boot. He profile as a middle RP option, and is probably the first guy on this list who I can say with confidence has no chance to start.

Elijah Cabell-OF
Cabell is your typical RF lottery ticket prospect with big power and bat speed, but raw and pepper with holes in his swing. He’s a terrific athlete, with big upside but the odds are stacked against him. He’s going to FSU for college.


Jonathan Sierra-OF
Sierra was a famous IFA signing who has been slowed by swing and miss issues, which undersells his power. He has long gangly arms, and it’s a big reason why he struggles with velo and inner pitches. He needs time, but the raw power is elite here.


Kendrick Calilao-OF
Calilao is headed to college at Florida University, but unlike other college stashes, he doesn’t have loud tools. What he possesses is a pretty, quick swing that generates tons of line drives, but his lack of foot speed profiles him in a corner spot. With his frame and ability to make hard contact, scouts highest on him see average raw pop in the future, which he’ll need to profile as a regular. He’s also considered athletic, and should be a plus corner defender with a plus arm. He was rated a top 150 prospect during this year’s draft.

Marcelo Martinez-SP
Marcelo owned the Appy league this year, but he’s 22, so it was hardly age appropriate. He profiles a soft tossing lefty who will need every ounce of deception and command to survive in the upper minors.


Sleeper
Skye Bolt-OF
Bolt has always had tools (average pop, good speed), and he finally started showing it this year as he began focusing on line drive contact instead of selling out for HRs. He’s switch hitting CF, and when combined with his tools, gives him a very attractive profile. But he’s 24 now still waffling in the mid minors, and most scouts peg his hit tool as below average. He’ll need to make further adjustments to sniff the ML, but he could be used as a versatile, streaky 4th OF who can play his way into a regular.


Summary
This is an enigmatic farm that I had trouble evaluating, but I generally think the back half of this list is a shade underrated with high floor hitters and pitchers with intriguing stuff, but the top half filled with a bit too much risk for me to like. In the middle is a triplet of big names (Buddy, Blake, Quantrill) that haven’t produced as much as people would have liked, but they still have the talent to be post hype sleepers and move up next year. I’m putting this farm this high because despite everything, if Melendez, Pearson, Kloff or Micker click, they profile easily as bonafide stars.