Post by Rays GM on May 13, 2020 15:41:53 GMT -5
ODC 2020 mock draft
I’m bored, so here’s a mock draft. Note that Asa Lacy(LHP), Emerson Hancock(RHP), Garrett Mitchell(OF), Cole Wilcox(RHP), Reid Detmers(LHP), JT Ginn(RHP), CJ Van Eyk (RHP), Tanner Burns(RHP), Austin Wells(1B), Daniel Cabrera(OF), Slade Cecconi(RHP) are all 1st round talents, but are owned already.
1. Boston Red Sox-Spencer Torkelson, 1B/LF
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Torkelson is the best college hitter to enter the MLB draft since Kris Bryant, and might even be a shade better. He does it with an elite approach, good bat control, explosive hands and bat speed, and light tower power. I think he ends up being a plus hitter with 40 HRs at his peak, able to hit in the middle of the lineup like the elite mashing 1B of old. Personally, I don’t really need a 1B, but he’s the BPA fantasy wise, and his added athleticism means he can play LF on some days too. As an added bonus, he’ll be 20.8 years old on draft day, making him young for the draft class.
2. Boston Red Sox-Austin Martin-2B/CF
Martin is the best pure hitter in the class, posting a sub 5 swstr% rate in the SEC, the toughest college conference for hitters. He’s got peerless bat speed, an elite plate approach, and quick twitch instincts that helps his above average speed play up in the field, and basepath. I only have two issues with him: his arm, and his GB rate. His arm didn’t look great this spring at 3B, so he might have to shift to CF (which might stretch his range) or 2B. Additionally, he hits about half of his batted balls on the ground, which isn’t desirable in today’s loft crazy game. But his EV data is very good, and a swing tweak could unlock more, above average power. He could end up as a 70 hitter at peak, with above average speed, power, and versatility when it’s all said and done.
3. Boston Red Sox-Zac Veen-RF
Veen isn’t the expected pick as of this moment, given that he ranks almost universally behind Gonzales in most draft rankings, but I’ve always felt strongly about taking the highest upside player in these positions, and that’s exactly what I’m going to do. Veen has the best swing in this draft, which is quiet in its preload, swift in its descent, and explosive in its follow through. I mean, look at this shit:
He doesn’t have the sublime bat to ball abilities of last year’s top HS OF, Riley Greene, but he’s still a very good hitter in his own right, extremely patient with a good batting eye, and projected to be an above average if not better hitter at maturity. But his calling card is power. After putting on 20 pounds of weight over the winter, he exploded up draft boards from a late first round talent to a universal top 10 pick. He’s got plus power now and projected to grow to perhaps double plus. His 6’5 frame portends more growth and added muscle, which is pretty terrifying because he’s crushing balls already against elite HS competition.
His leveraged swing, combined with his approach, feel to hit, and growing frame, gives him one of the highest upsides in this draft. I have him as a future middle of the lineup masher at RF, who adds value with his athleticism.
4. Montreal Expos-Nick Gonzales-2B
I really like the idea of the Expos taking a very high floor, with star upside, to center their rebuild on. Gonzales has fast hands and a lofty swing that generates tons of flyballs and contact, which makes him one of the most dangerous hitters in this draft. He’s posted godlike numbers in New Mexico, but the obvious caveat is that NM plays like the PCL. But he did rake on the Cape with a wooden bat, and the visual evaluation is also glowing. I have heard varying things about the underlying batted ball data, which might lean to slightly underwhelming given this high pick, but most people agree: Gonzales will probably fall in as a 300 hitter with 15-20 HRs at 2B, which makes him a valuable player, if not the elite one if you simply glanced at his college data.
5. New York Mets-Max Meyer-RHP
This feels like a perfect match between team and prospect. Jack has a deep farm now that is closing to debuting soon, and Meyer will be a fast moving arm who also comes with a monstrous ceiling. He pairs an explosive upper 90’s fastball with movement along with an elite slider, giving him two 70 pitches in his arsenal. He’s supremely athletic, and his delivery is clean. The only concern is that his changeup lags behind, and he’s a bit undersized along with a relatively small sample size of starting. Still, early spring Max Meyer demolished competition, and while he slowed down a bit, his baseline profile is elite, and he’s going to be a dynamic mid rotation starter or an elite closer.
6. New York Mets- Austin Hendricks-OF
I struggled with Hendricks vs Kjerstad for a bit, and while admittedly Kjerstad would line up better with Jack’s timeline as a polished college bat, it’s hard to imagine Hendricks slipping past here. He’s got the best bat speed in this class, with a quick trigger swing that generates huge raw power and exit velocity. The swing has been tinkered with recently as he’s had some concerning swing and miss issues over the past year, but most people feel he will hit enough to become a ML player. He’s a bit old for the class (19 on draft day), but these are all star tools here. I’m admittedly biased on upside here, but this is the easy pick for me. Jack might feel differently.
7. Miami Marlins- Heston Kjerstad-OF
Kevin’s shopping for an OF, and lucky for him, there is an OF here for him who has performed with elite results in SEC competition. After Kjerstad, there is a pretty serious drop off in college bats, so this is good value here. He has 70 raw power with a perfect RF profile, but there’s are some concerns, namely……oddities in his swing, which might cause him to fall a bit on draft day. His swing is complex and a little bumpy, which might be exploited at the upper levels, but he’s cut his K rate each year in college and has faced the best competition of his age group. You can view the swing here, in all its herky jerky glory.
It might not be pretty, but if Kjerstad ends up an average hitting, plus power RF, this will be a solid pick. His resume is as good as any hitter at this point in the draft.
8. Kansas City Royals-Robert Hassell-OF
I get the sense Andrew is leaning towards a hitter here, so I went with the best pure hit tool in the HS class, Robert Hassell. Hassell, in a loaded OF HS class, stood out for his bat to ball skills, and has a chance to play CF. The rest of the profile is a bit more questionable though. The power, right now, leans to just average, which is fine if he sticks in CF, but will be more scrutinized if he slides to LF or RF. As of this moment, his lack of top end speed will probably draw him away from CF, though he does have good instincts. It really depends on how he grows in the future. If he adds good weight, he might have a chance for above average power, drawing similarities to last year’s top HS OF, Riley Greene. And FWIW, people really just love the feel to hit for Hassell, with him being connected to the Padres and Rockies, who hold picks 8 and 9 in this year’s draft. There’s a lot of way for him to become a solid ML regular, and there’s even a few avenues to stardom if he grows into more power as he matures and/or sticks in CF. Realistically, I can see him ending up as a .300 hitting RF with 20 bombs at maturity.
9. Texas Rangers-Ed Howard -SS
At this point, I’m not really sure where to go, as post Hassell, the draft board splinters off into multiple directions. I thought briefly about going pitcher here, given Bill’s need for impact pitching, and guys like Jared Kelley, Garrett Crochet, and Mick Abel jump out at me, but a lot of those guys have serious red marks or risk profiles. Instead, I’m going with the consensus best HS SS in the class, which does give Bill some sorely needed middle IF talent. Howard combines an elite glove, a projectable frame, and a clean swing from the right hand side to give a very solid base for a future ML regular. People are more mixed on the bat potential, with some just solid reviews on the approach, and the power is more gap to gap now, though it should push at least average at maturity. He has good bat to ball skills tho, and his cold weather background hopefully indicates there’s more growth in the future. The speed is average to slightly above, so most of his value will come from his position and projection of the bat. If everything clicks, you might have a .280, 20 HR SS at his peak.
10. Oakland Athletics-Garrett Crochet- SP
Crochet gives Paul another power arm in his farm, who has some of the nastiest stuff in the class. He combines a 70 grade upper 90’s fastball with a brutal breaking ball that, when paired with the deception of his delivery, creates unenviable situations for batters. The stuff after that is a bit more inconsistent, and he really lacks the resume (has only started partially as a freshman and sophomore, and only made one start this season before it was cancelled) to slip into the top 10. Combine that with a violent delivery and some injury concerns (had some shoulder issues this year), the red flags are real. But at this point, his upside is too good to pass up.
11. Cleveland Indians-Tyler Sodestrom-C/OF
Again, Psych can choose whatever he wants to go with this, but he’s already acquired 3 elite young bats in his farm (Luciano, Riley Greene, and Erick Pena), and Sodestrom fits snugly in that timeline, and is good enough to be lumped in with that core. He just fucking hits, man. He’s got loud, plus raw power with a pretty swing with good feel to hit, and has the projection remaining to add even more pop. Now, defensively, he’s a bit all over the place, with people not convinced he can catch, although upcoming rule changes might give him a better shot to catch. Still, he can slot at 3B, 1B, or the OF. Psych’s getting him for the bat, and that’s all that matters.
12. Baltimore Orioles-Mick Abel-RHP
At this point, I can no longer ignore Abel. He’s simply too good to keep falling, regardless of any fears about the HS RHP demographic. Abel combines a perfect pitcher’s frame (6’5, 180 pounds), a clean delivery, and off the charts pitch quality. Besides a fastball that touched 100 this spring in bullpen session, he shows quality spin from his Rapsodo data for his slider and changeup, giving him three above average to plus pitches. Toss in the best command of the HS class, and you have the rare HS pitcher who is not only polished and complete in his repertoire, but checks off all the analytical databoxes, with room to grow even more in the future. If I had to choose one player after the top 10 who can become a perennial all-star, he would be it. Talent wise, he fits in the top 10, but the injury/bust risk of HS RHP arms is too big to ignore. Still, this guy has a chance to be a true #1 starter in the majors.
13. Milwaukee Brewers-Cade Cavalli-RHP
I’ll keep this short and sweet. Cavalli has a beautiful pitcher’s frame and delivery, with a fastball that touches 100 with a plus slider, along with an average curveball and change. That seems like an easy top 10 pick when you combined his college success, but his command has wavered erratically at times, and he has a lengthy history of injuries. He’s more volatile than your typical college prospect, but I think the upside justifies this pick here.
14. Colorado Rockies-Jared Kelley-RHP
I’m going to try to shoot for the moon with both of the Rockies’ picks. Kelley is especially interesting to me because he sort of thwarts your typical HS Texas righty. Yes, he possesses elite fastball velocity, touching 100 MPH, but he’s been singled out for his unusual polish and command of it. Additionally, he has a plus changeup that works well off his fastball, and looks like a plus pitch at peak. Kelley is an excellent athlete; the only knock against him is the generalized risk of being a HS RHP, and the fact that his breaking ball – a slurve – lacks the usual bite you’d expect from elite HS pitchers. He’s improved it over the past year or so, but it looks merely average at best. What you hope for is continued growth in this area, and if Kelley goes to a good player development system that can bring out a tick above in his breaking stuff, he can be a dynamite #2 guy.
15. Baltimore Orioles- Pete Crow Armstrong-CF
Fun fact time: Pete Crow Armstrong’s mother played the lead character’s mom in “Little Big League”. Another fun fact: PCA was the top ranked HS OF in the class before last summer, but slipped after a summer where he showed way too much swing and miss for a guy who’s dependent on contact and speed and defense to profile. Still, he was white hot this spring, and proponents of PCA see a guy who profile as a CF, has plus speed, plus feel to hit, and playable game power that is below average. I’m not gonna lie, the swing isn’t conducive for power just yet, and resume is a little spotty for a guy that’s supposed to rake, but he can impact fantasy with his speed and profile, and I think that’s good enough to take him here. If everything clicks, you’ll get a CF who can hit .300 and swipe 20 bags in his best years. Given how far away Jeff is from competing, I like the idea of pairing him with two premium HS guys in PCA and Abel.
16. Arizona Diamondbacks-Patrick Bailey-C
Bailey is the best catcher in the draft, an elite defensive catcher who has average to above offensive production. This isn’t a team specific pick, but more of a value one. As a power first guy in the ACC, with a guarantee to stick in the backstop, it’s pretty easy to see why he’s seen as a consensus top 20 guy, and who has a small shot of sneaking into the top 10 of the draft in June. Admittedly, the swing isn’t always conducive to contact, but really, if you pop a catcher who can give you 25 bombs, and hit around 250-260, which is to seem where most people have him, then that’s an impact fantasy guy.
17. Cleveland Indians-Dillon Dingler-C/OF
Dingler is a personal favorite of mine, and I feel strongly there’s untapped potential here, which is a bit rare for a 3 year college bat. This is a definite reach in terms of mocks, but I think he’ll get picked higher than most expect, and that’s because he was having a breakout season right before play stopped. He’s always had an elite approach at the plate (Walking almost as much as he struck out in the Big 10), but he finally showed a lot more in game power his junior year, which really rounds out his profile. He’s very athletic for the catcher position, showing strong defense behind the plate, with the arm to gun down runners. He’s also athletic enough to play the OF, as he played CF for his college at times. It’s an…..unusual profile, but I feel that if Dingler’s in game power production is for real, he might fit perfectly in the versatile mold demanded by today’s game. I think there’s star upside here, if everything clicks for him.
18. Colorado Rockies-Aaron Sabato-1B
This might be a reach by a few picks if we go by most rankings, but I think Sabato has shown some carrying traits at North Carolina to merit this selection. Actually, really just one: power. He’s got a fast stroke with big time power, even rivaling Tork in terms of power output. He’s shown a patient approach in college, but this is where people start to push down his stock. Everything else is fringe average to well below. Unlike Torkelson, he’s not athletic or nimble around the bag, and there’s a lot of people who see him as DH only. His feel to hit evaluations range from below average to average, and idealistically, you want to see less K’s. he was also a bit streaky in college, which might some to think he might be prone to slumps in college. Still, Sabato has posted really impressive batting lines as a freshmen and sophomore in a tough conference, and he has an an almost peerless carrying tool for fantasy. Really, Sabato might be an elite power threat who hits just enough some years to be serviceable as a 1b/DH fantasy type. That isn’t thrilling, and the margin of error is thin, but this is some serious thunder at this point. And if I had to choose between him and Seth Beer, who he often get comped too, I feel better about Sabato’s ability to hit ML pitching.
19. Baltimore Orioles-Carmen Mdolzinksi-RHP
Carmen is a guy who doesn’t have the requisite track record you’d expect from a first round college arm, with a college ERA nearing 6 his first two years in college. He dealt with a foot injury early on in his career, but last summer at the Cape, he thrust himself into top 10 talk with an explosive summer, showing an upper 90’s fastball, and a chance for two plus breaking pitches. The problem is, that version of him was really limited to last summer, and his statistical markers (his K rates, especially), are just OK for an elite college arm. Most feel he can be a rotation piece, and this might be a good buy low of a talented guy with a small track record. Given a full season, it’s possible he could have gone much higher than 19. I feel it’s good value, at least.
20. Montreal Expos-Nick Bitsko-RHP
We’re going to stop the Bitsko slide here. Talent wise, I think this is a coup for Montreal, but again, HS RHPs are the worst demographic to be a part of, and Bitsko had very little chance to show himself off this spring after reclassifying into this year’s class.
Still, Bitsko has everything you want from an elite HS arm. He’s got a big frame (6’4, 220 pounds), a big fastball curve combo, a polished feel for pitching, and no serious injury markers. He’s a wild card at the moment given the limited looks, but the baseline traits are very, very good.
21. Montreal Expos-Bryce Jarvis-RHP
Jarvis is perhaps the biggest riser besides Veen over the past calendar year. He was a rotation swingman type his sophomore year at Duke, but a remade physique that included extra weight pumped up his FB velo from the upper 80’s to the mid 90’s. And that’s especially promising, because he’ll show good command of his pitches, supported by a plus changeup that his go to pitch, to go along with not 1, but 2 potential above average breaking pitches. He was redonculous this spring, and despite the limited sample size, this new Jarvis was so impressive it’s turned him from a late round pick to an easy day one pick. A full season could have pumped up his stock even further, so I feel getting him here at 21 could be a steal.
22. Colorado Rockies-Bobby Miller-RHP
I’m not really high on Miller’s chances to become a SP, but I think his present pitches lend himself as a valuable bullpen one day. He’ll show a plus plus fastball with sink in the upper 90’s, a hard biting slider, and a workeable changeup that serves as a different look. The command gives him a chance to start, but the delivery turns some people off. But there’s a really easy way of envisioning him contributing in the majors, and fast.
23. Montreal Expos-Carson Montgomery-RHP
I don’t love Mont’s delivery (it’s weird, check it out), but I can’t deny that a good framed, HS pitcher with three potentially plus pitches in his fastball, changeup, and slider isn’t intriguing. Still, after this pick, Jeremiah will have picked up an elite bat (Gonzales), a big sleeper (Jarvis), and two very high upside arms (Bitsko and Montgomery). Sounds like a hell of a haul for a team that needs to rebuild.
24. New York Yankees-Justin Lange-RHP
I feel strongly this is a Justin type of pick. Lange has explosive velocity that touches 100, and is an elite athlete that portends very well for his future growth. The issue is that his command, feel for pitching, and breaking pitches are well below average. I think Lange is a guy you look at carefully where he ends up in the draft. Put in the hands of a great development system, and you might have hit the jackpot. The arm talent here is incredibly, but he needs a lot of work to hit his ceiling.
25. Houston Astros-Nick Loftin-SS
Max seems determined to time his next competing team with the guys already in his farm, so Loftin here does make sense. Loftin is perhaps the blandest pick in the round based on his first two years in Baylor, but this year, his in game power ticked up noticeably from well below average to a tick below. That’s good news, because everything else for him is average to above average. His feel for contact stood out over his career in college, and he has a natural disposition to play SS. The speed plays above average, which gives him a bunch of 5’s on his report. As a SS, that’s enough to be a solid regular. If it wasn’t for the season being cut short, it’s possible he could have been a top 20 pick, so this feels like good value.
26. Kansas City Royals-Jordan Westburg-SS
Westburg has big raw power, which manifests in rare exit velocities for the SS position. There’s some similarities between him and last year’s A’s first rounder Logan Davidson with his hit over power approach, but I have bigger questions on his in game power and ability to stick at SS. Still, at this point in the draft, you’re not really going to get a better profile/bat from the college ranks, which fits Andrew’s needs as of this moment. It’s a bit risky, but there’s upside here if a team gets his raw power to play up in game.
27. Arizona Diamondbacks-Jordan Walker-3B/1B
This feels like a Hemmons pick, who has dipped into the upside HS player pool headed to college at multiple times over the past few years. Walker, who has a very good chance to end up at Duke, fits this profile perfectly. He combines a cerebral approach to play (His parents went to MIT, and Harvard, for good measure), along with a swing that generates power comparable to any bat in this draft. It’s a long swing given his massive frame(6’5, 212 pounds), but he has surprising feel to hit despite it. He’s slipped over the past calendar year, as most evaluators feel he might be better suited at 1B or RF, rather than 3B, and his secondary markers (plate approach, breaking ball recognition) are more fringe than you want from an elite HS bat. But given the serious juice in the bat, there are pathways to stardom if he stick at 3B, or makes strides in his approach in the next few years.
28. Kansas City Royals-Justin Foscue-2B
And there we go. Hassell, Westburg, and Foscue complete a talented hitting trio for Andrew. Foscue is one of my favorites in this draft, with the ability to play up the middle a swing that generates loft, and power rare for the position. He’s performed well in a tough college conference, and shows good contact rates/batted ball data. He’s a grinder, and has a very good shot to be a ML regular at 2B who can surprise. As a bonus, Foscue and Westburg were double play partners at Mississippi State, which is a nice tidbit for Andrew.
29. Boston Red Sox-Dylan Crews-OF
Crews has a very good chance of going to college anyways, but I’m more than willing to wait for him. Before last summer, you could argue he was a top 10 talent in this draft, but I think he’s gotten a little launch happy recently, which has opened up a lot of holes in his swing. I’ve heard mixed stuff about him again this Spring, but there are some very strong backers for him still, so I like the upside. His swing, when right, gives him a change to be a special RH hitter with considerable polish and power.
30. Cincinnati Reds-Casey Martin-SS
Seth loves his up the middle talent, and Casey Martin is certainly talented. He’s a plus plus runner with plus power and a good chance to stick at SS, but there are troubling issues with his ability to make contact. He was striking out almost 30% of the time this spring before play was stopped, and he hasn’t exactly impressed with wooden bats either. I think he’s a fine pick here though. The natural talent is rare, and if developed correctly, you might have a star on your hand.
I’m bored, so here’s a mock draft. Note that Asa Lacy(LHP), Emerson Hancock(RHP), Garrett Mitchell(OF), Cole Wilcox(RHP), Reid Detmers(LHP), JT Ginn(RHP), CJ Van Eyk (RHP), Tanner Burns(RHP), Austin Wells(1B), Daniel Cabrera(OF), Slade Cecconi(RHP) are all 1st round talents, but are owned already.
1. Boston Red Sox-Spencer Torkelson, 1B/LF
Torkelson is the best college hitter to enter the MLB draft since Kris Bryant, and might even be a shade better. He does it with an elite approach, good bat control, explosive hands and bat speed, and light tower power. I think he ends up being a plus hitter with 40 HRs at his peak, able to hit in the middle of the lineup like the elite mashing 1B of old. Personally, I don’t really need a 1B, but he’s the BPA fantasy wise, and his added athleticism means he can play LF on some days too. As an added bonus, he’ll be 20.8 years old on draft day, making him young for the draft class.
2. Boston Red Sox-Austin Martin-2B/CF
Martin is the best pure hitter in the class, posting a sub 5 swstr% rate in the SEC, the toughest college conference for hitters. He’s got peerless bat speed, an elite plate approach, and quick twitch instincts that helps his above average speed play up in the field, and basepath. I only have two issues with him: his arm, and his GB rate. His arm didn’t look great this spring at 3B, so he might have to shift to CF (which might stretch his range) or 2B. Additionally, he hits about half of his batted balls on the ground, which isn’t desirable in today’s loft crazy game. But his EV data is very good, and a swing tweak could unlock more, above average power. He could end up as a 70 hitter at peak, with above average speed, power, and versatility when it’s all said and done.
3. Boston Red Sox-Zac Veen-RF
Veen isn’t the expected pick as of this moment, given that he ranks almost universally behind Gonzales in most draft rankings, but I’ve always felt strongly about taking the highest upside player in these positions, and that’s exactly what I’m going to do. Veen has the best swing in this draft, which is quiet in its preload, swift in its descent, and explosive in its follow through. I mean, look at this shit:
He doesn’t have the sublime bat to ball abilities of last year’s top HS OF, Riley Greene, but he’s still a very good hitter in his own right, extremely patient with a good batting eye, and projected to be an above average if not better hitter at maturity. But his calling card is power. After putting on 20 pounds of weight over the winter, he exploded up draft boards from a late first round talent to a universal top 10 pick. He’s got plus power now and projected to grow to perhaps double plus. His 6’5 frame portends more growth and added muscle, which is pretty terrifying because he’s crushing balls already against elite HS competition.
His leveraged swing, combined with his approach, feel to hit, and growing frame, gives him one of the highest upsides in this draft. I have him as a future middle of the lineup masher at RF, who adds value with his athleticism.
4. Montreal Expos-Nick Gonzales-2B
I really like the idea of the Expos taking a very high floor, with star upside, to center their rebuild on. Gonzales has fast hands and a lofty swing that generates tons of flyballs and contact, which makes him one of the most dangerous hitters in this draft. He’s posted godlike numbers in New Mexico, but the obvious caveat is that NM plays like the PCL. But he did rake on the Cape with a wooden bat, and the visual evaluation is also glowing. I have heard varying things about the underlying batted ball data, which might lean to slightly underwhelming given this high pick, but most people agree: Gonzales will probably fall in as a 300 hitter with 15-20 HRs at 2B, which makes him a valuable player, if not the elite one if you simply glanced at his college data.
5. New York Mets-Max Meyer-RHP
This feels like a perfect match between team and prospect. Jack has a deep farm now that is closing to debuting soon, and Meyer will be a fast moving arm who also comes with a monstrous ceiling. He pairs an explosive upper 90’s fastball with movement along with an elite slider, giving him two 70 pitches in his arsenal. He’s supremely athletic, and his delivery is clean. The only concern is that his changeup lags behind, and he’s a bit undersized along with a relatively small sample size of starting. Still, early spring Max Meyer demolished competition, and while he slowed down a bit, his baseline profile is elite, and he’s going to be a dynamic mid rotation starter or an elite closer.
6. New York Mets- Austin Hendricks-OF
I struggled with Hendricks vs Kjerstad for a bit, and while admittedly Kjerstad would line up better with Jack’s timeline as a polished college bat, it’s hard to imagine Hendricks slipping past here. He’s got the best bat speed in this class, with a quick trigger swing that generates huge raw power and exit velocity. The swing has been tinkered with recently as he’s had some concerning swing and miss issues over the past year, but most people feel he will hit enough to become a ML player. He’s a bit old for the class (19 on draft day), but these are all star tools here. I’m admittedly biased on upside here, but this is the easy pick for me. Jack might feel differently.
7. Miami Marlins- Heston Kjerstad-OF
Kevin’s shopping for an OF, and lucky for him, there is an OF here for him who has performed with elite results in SEC competition. After Kjerstad, there is a pretty serious drop off in college bats, so this is good value here. He has 70 raw power with a perfect RF profile, but there’s are some concerns, namely……oddities in his swing, which might cause him to fall a bit on draft day. His swing is complex and a little bumpy, which might be exploited at the upper levels, but he’s cut his K rate each year in college and has faced the best competition of his age group. You can view the swing here, in all its herky jerky glory.
It might not be pretty, but if Kjerstad ends up an average hitting, plus power RF, this will be a solid pick. His resume is as good as any hitter at this point in the draft.
8. Kansas City Royals-Robert Hassell-OF
I get the sense Andrew is leaning towards a hitter here, so I went with the best pure hit tool in the HS class, Robert Hassell. Hassell, in a loaded OF HS class, stood out for his bat to ball skills, and has a chance to play CF. The rest of the profile is a bit more questionable though. The power, right now, leans to just average, which is fine if he sticks in CF, but will be more scrutinized if he slides to LF or RF. As of this moment, his lack of top end speed will probably draw him away from CF, though he does have good instincts. It really depends on how he grows in the future. If he adds good weight, he might have a chance for above average power, drawing similarities to last year’s top HS OF, Riley Greene. And FWIW, people really just love the feel to hit for Hassell, with him being connected to the Padres and Rockies, who hold picks 8 and 9 in this year’s draft. There’s a lot of way for him to become a solid ML regular, and there’s even a few avenues to stardom if he grows into more power as he matures and/or sticks in CF. Realistically, I can see him ending up as a .300 hitting RF with 20 bombs at maturity.
9. Texas Rangers-Ed Howard -SS
At this point, I’m not really sure where to go, as post Hassell, the draft board splinters off into multiple directions. I thought briefly about going pitcher here, given Bill’s need for impact pitching, and guys like Jared Kelley, Garrett Crochet, and Mick Abel jump out at me, but a lot of those guys have serious red marks or risk profiles. Instead, I’m going with the consensus best HS SS in the class, which does give Bill some sorely needed middle IF talent. Howard combines an elite glove, a projectable frame, and a clean swing from the right hand side to give a very solid base for a future ML regular. People are more mixed on the bat potential, with some just solid reviews on the approach, and the power is more gap to gap now, though it should push at least average at maturity. He has good bat to ball skills tho, and his cold weather background hopefully indicates there’s more growth in the future. The speed is average to slightly above, so most of his value will come from his position and projection of the bat. If everything clicks, you might have a .280, 20 HR SS at his peak.
10. Oakland Athletics-Garrett Crochet- SP
Crochet gives Paul another power arm in his farm, who has some of the nastiest stuff in the class. He combines a 70 grade upper 90’s fastball with a brutal breaking ball that, when paired with the deception of his delivery, creates unenviable situations for batters. The stuff after that is a bit more inconsistent, and he really lacks the resume (has only started partially as a freshman and sophomore, and only made one start this season before it was cancelled) to slip into the top 10. Combine that with a violent delivery and some injury concerns (had some shoulder issues this year), the red flags are real. But at this point, his upside is too good to pass up.
11. Cleveland Indians-Tyler Sodestrom-C/OF
Again, Psych can choose whatever he wants to go with this, but he’s already acquired 3 elite young bats in his farm (Luciano, Riley Greene, and Erick Pena), and Sodestrom fits snugly in that timeline, and is good enough to be lumped in with that core. He just fucking hits, man. He’s got loud, plus raw power with a pretty swing with good feel to hit, and has the projection remaining to add even more pop. Now, defensively, he’s a bit all over the place, with people not convinced he can catch, although upcoming rule changes might give him a better shot to catch. Still, he can slot at 3B, 1B, or the OF. Psych’s getting him for the bat, and that’s all that matters.
12. Baltimore Orioles-Mick Abel-RHP
At this point, I can no longer ignore Abel. He’s simply too good to keep falling, regardless of any fears about the HS RHP demographic. Abel combines a perfect pitcher’s frame (6’5, 180 pounds), a clean delivery, and off the charts pitch quality. Besides a fastball that touched 100 this spring in bullpen session, he shows quality spin from his Rapsodo data for his slider and changeup, giving him three above average to plus pitches. Toss in the best command of the HS class, and you have the rare HS pitcher who is not only polished and complete in his repertoire, but checks off all the analytical databoxes, with room to grow even more in the future. If I had to choose one player after the top 10 who can become a perennial all-star, he would be it. Talent wise, he fits in the top 10, but the injury/bust risk of HS RHP arms is too big to ignore. Still, this guy has a chance to be a true #1 starter in the majors.
13. Milwaukee Brewers-Cade Cavalli-RHP
I’ll keep this short and sweet. Cavalli has a beautiful pitcher’s frame and delivery, with a fastball that touches 100 with a plus slider, along with an average curveball and change. That seems like an easy top 10 pick when you combined his college success, but his command has wavered erratically at times, and he has a lengthy history of injuries. He’s more volatile than your typical college prospect, but I think the upside justifies this pick here.
14. Colorado Rockies-Jared Kelley-RHP
I’m going to try to shoot for the moon with both of the Rockies’ picks. Kelley is especially interesting to me because he sort of thwarts your typical HS Texas righty. Yes, he possesses elite fastball velocity, touching 100 MPH, but he’s been singled out for his unusual polish and command of it. Additionally, he has a plus changeup that works well off his fastball, and looks like a plus pitch at peak. Kelley is an excellent athlete; the only knock against him is the generalized risk of being a HS RHP, and the fact that his breaking ball – a slurve – lacks the usual bite you’d expect from elite HS pitchers. He’s improved it over the past year or so, but it looks merely average at best. What you hope for is continued growth in this area, and if Kelley goes to a good player development system that can bring out a tick above in his breaking stuff, he can be a dynamite #2 guy.
15. Baltimore Orioles- Pete Crow Armstrong-CF
Fun fact time: Pete Crow Armstrong’s mother played the lead character’s mom in “Little Big League”. Another fun fact: PCA was the top ranked HS OF in the class before last summer, but slipped after a summer where he showed way too much swing and miss for a guy who’s dependent on contact and speed and defense to profile. Still, he was white hot this spring, and proponents of PCA see a guy who profile as a CF, has plus speed, plus feel to hit, and playable game power that is below average. I’m not gonna lie, the swing isn’t conducive for power just yet, and resume is a little spotty for a guy that’s supposed to rake, but he can impact fantasy with his speed and profile, and I think that’s good enough to take him here. If everything clicks, you’ll get a CF who can hit .300 and swipe 20 bags in his best years. Given how far away Jeff is from competing, I like the idea of pairing him with two premium HS guys in PCA and Abel.
16. Arizona Diamondbacks-Patrick Bailey-C
Bailey is the best catcher in the draft, an elite defensive catcher who has average to above offensive production. This isn’t a team specific pick, but more of a value one. As a power first guy in the ACC, with a guarantee to stick in the backstop, it’s pretty easy to see why he’s seen as a consensus top 20 guy, and who has a small shot of sneaking into the top 10 of the draft in June. Admittedly, the swing isn’t always conducive to contact, but really, if you pop a catcher who can give you 25 bombs, and hit around 250-260, which is to seem where most people have him, then that’s an impact fantasy guy.
17. Cleveland Indians-Dillon Dingler-C/OF
Dingler is a personal favorite of mine, and I feel strongly there’s untapped potential here, which is a bit rare for a 3 year college bat. This is a definite reach in terms of mocks, but I think he’ll get picked higher than most expect, and that’s because he was having a breakout season right before play stopped. He’s always had an elite approach at the plate (Walking almost as much as he struck out in the Big 10), but he finally showed a lot more in game power his junior year, which really rounds out his profile. He’s very athletic for the catcher position, showing strong defense behind the plate, with the arm to gun down runners. He’s also athletic enough to play the OF, as he played CF for his college at times. It’s an…..unusual profile, but I feel that if Dingler’s in game power production is for real, he might fit perfectly in the versatile mold demanded by today’s game. I think there’s star upside here, if everything clicks for him.
18. Colorado Rockies-Aaron Sabato-1B
This might be a reach by a few picks if we go by most rankings, but I think Sabato has shown some carrying traits at North Carolina to merit this selection. Actually, really just one: power. He’s got a fast stroke with big time power, even rivaling Tork in terms of power output. He’s shown a patient approach in college, but this is where people start to push down his stock. Everything else is fringe average to well below. Unlike Torkelson, he’s not athletic or nimble around the bag, and there’s a lot of people who see him as DH only. His feel to hit evaluations range from below average to average, and idealistically, you want to see less K’s. he was also a bit streaky in college, which might some to think he might be prone to slumps in college. Still, Sabato has posted really impressive batting lines as a freshmen and sophomore in a tough conference, and he has an an almost peerless carrying tool for fantasy. Really, Sabato might be an elite power threat who hits just enough some years to be serviceable as a 1b/DH fantasy type. That isn’t thrilling, and the margin of error is thin, but this is some serious thunder at this point. And if I had to choose between him and Seth Beer, who he often get comped too, I feel better about Sabato’s ability to hit ML pitching.
19. Baltimore Orioles-Carmen Mdolzinksi-RHP
Carmen is a guy who doesn’t have the requisite track record you’d expect from a first round college arm, with a college ERA nearing 6 his first two years in college. He dealt with a foot injury early on in his career, but last summer at the Cape, he thrust himself into top 10 talk with an explosive summer, showing an upper 90’s fastball, and a chance for two plus breaking pitches. The problem is, that version of him was really limited to last summer, and his statistical markers (his K rates, especially), are just OK for an elite college arm. Most feel he can be a rotation piece, and this might be a good buy low of a talented guy with a small track record. Given a full season, it’s possible he could have gone much higher than 19. I feel it’s good value, at least.
20. Montreal Expos-Nick Bitsko-RHP
We’re going to stop the Bitsko slide here. Talent wise, I think this is a coup for Montreal, but again, HS RHPs are the worst demographic to be a part of, and Bitsko had very little chance to show himself off this spring after reclassifying into this year’s class.
Still, Bitsko has everything you want from an elite HS arm. He’s got a big frame (6’4, 220 pounds), a big fastball curve combo, a polished feel for pitching, and no serious injury markers. He’s a wild card at the moment given the limited looks, but the baseline traits are very, very good.
21. Montreal Expos-Bryce Jarvis-RHP
Jarvis is perhaps the biggest riser besides Veen over the past calendar year. He was a rotation swingman type his sophomore year at Duke, but a remade physique that included extra weight pumped up his FB velo from the upper 80’s to the mid 90’s. And that’s especially promising, because he’ll show good command of his pitches, supported by a plus changeup that his go to pitch, to go along with not 1, but 2 potential above average breaking pitches. He was redonculous this spring, and despite the limited sample size, this new Jarvis was so impressive it’s turned him from a late round pick to an easy day one pick. A full season could have pumped up his stock even further, so I feel getting him here at 21 could be a steal.
22. Colorado Rockies-Bobby Miller-RHP
I’m not really high on Miller’s chances to become a SP, but I think his present pitches lend himself as a valuable bullpen one day. He’ll show a plus plus fastball with sink in the upper 90’s, a hard biting slider, and a workeable changeup that serves as a different look. The command gives him a chance to start, but the delivery turns some people off. But there’s a really easy way of envisioning him contributing in the majors, and fast.
23. Montreal Expos-Carson Montgomery-RHP
I don’t love Mont’s delivery (it’s weird, check it out), but I can’t deny that a good framed, HS pitcher with three potentially plus pitches in his fastball, changeup, and slider isn’t intriguing. Still, after this pick, Jeremiah will have picked up an elite bat (Gonzales), a big sleeper (Jarvis), and two very high upside arms (Bitsko and Montgomery). Sounds like a hell of a haul for a team that needs to rebuild.
24. New York Yankees-Justin Lange-RHP
I feel strongly this is a Justin type of pick. Lange has explosive velocity that touches 100, and is an elite athlete that portends very well for his future growth. The issue is that his command, feel for pitching, and breaking pitches are well below average. I think Lange is a guy you look at carefully where he ends up in the draft. Put in the hands of a great development system, and you might have hit the jackpot. The arm talent here is incredibly, but he needs a lot of work to hit his ceiling.
25. Houston Astros-Nick Loftin-SS
Max seems determined to time his next competing team with the guys already in his farm, so Loftin here does make sense. Loftin is perhaps the blandest pick in the round based on his first two years in Baylor, but this year, his in game power ticked up noticeably from well below average to a tick below. That’s good news, because everything else for him is average to above average. His feel for contact stood out over his career in college, and he has a natural disposition to play SS. The speed plays above average, which gives him a bunch of 5’s on his report. As a SS, that’s enough to be a solid regular. If it wasn’t for the season being cut short, it’s possible he could have been a top 20 pick, so this feels like good value.
26. Kansas City Royals-Jordan Westburg-SS
Westburg has big raw power, which manifests in rare exit velocities for the SS position. There’s some similarities between him and last year’s A’s first rounder Logan Davidson with his hit over power approach, but I have bigger questions on his in game power and ability to stick at SS. Still, at this point in the draft, you’re not really going to get a better profile/bat from the college ranks, which fits Andrew’s needs as of this moment. It’s a bit risky, but there’s upside here if a team gets his raw power to play up in game.
27. Arizona Diamondbacks-Jordan Walker-3B/1B
This feels like a Hemmons pick, who has dipped into the upside HS player pool headed to college at multiple times over the past few years. Walker, who has a very good chance to end up at Duke, fits this profile perfectly. He combines a cerebral approach to play (His parents went to MIT, and Harvard, for good measure), along with a swing that generates power comparable to any bat in this draft. It’s a long swing given his massive frame(6’5, 212 pounds), but he has surprising feel to hit despite it. He’s slipped over the past calendar year, as most evaluators feel he might be better suited at 1B or RF, rather than 3B, and his secondary markers (plate approach, breaking ball recognition) are more fringe than you want from an elite HS bat. But given the serious juice in the bat, there are pathways to stardom if he stick at 3B, or makes strides in his approach in the next few years.
28. Kansas City Royals-Justin Foscue-2B
And there we go. Hassell, Westburg, and Foscue complete a talented hitting trio for Andrew. Foscue is one of my favorites in this draft, with the ability to play up the middle a swing that generates loft, and power rare for the position. He’s performed well in a tough college conference, and shows good contact rates/batted ball data. He’s a grinder, and has a very good shot to be a ML regular at 2B who can surprise. As a bonus, Foscue and Westburg were double play partners at Mississippi State, which is a nice tidbit for Andrew.
29. Boston Red Sox-Dylan Crews-OF
Crews has a very good chance of going to college anyways, but I’m more than willing to wait for him. Before last summer, you could argue he was a top 10 talent in this draft, but I think he’s gotten a little launch happy recently, which has opened up a lot of holes in his swing. I’ve heard mixed stuff about him again this Spring, but there are some very strong backers for him still, so I like the upside. His swing, when right, gives him a change to be a special RH hitter with considerable polish and power.
30. Cincinnati Reds-Casey Martin-SS
Seth loves his up the middle talent, and Casey Martin is certainly talented. He’s a plus plus runner with plus power and a good chance to stick at SS, but there are troubling issues with his ability to make contact. He was striking out almost 30% of the time this spring before play was stopped, and he hasn’t exactly impressed with wooden bats either. I think he’s a fine pick here though. The natural talent is rare, and if developed correctly, you might have a star on your hand.