2022 FA Rankings/Predictions - Hitters Pt. 1
Dec 12, 2021 23:12:06 GMT -5
Astros GM (Max), Rangers GM (Bill), and 8 more like this
Post by White Sox GM (Michael) on Dec 12, 2021 23:12:06 GMT -5
This is a very interesting FA class. Coming off the heels of a salary cap raise and changes to arbitration, the league’s economics have been upended. There’s a lot of youth in this class, paired with a lot of rebuilders with too much money to spend. This class is about 20 hitters deep in terms of what I’d call solid starters or better, and the top of the class has plenty of stars. Let’s start with my top 10 hitters for this class – a second post to come with more hitters, then the pitchers after that.
A few more notes about the list itself:
Players are listed with their primary position and their Opening Day 2022 age. I am not making any attempt to predict the contracts of these players, especially due to the recent cap raise. I am giving approximately two minutes to each team prediction itself, and honestly many of the big cap teams are interchangeable in this exercise, so feel free to swap yourselves in for Turner or whatever if you have the money for it.
1. Trea Turner, SS, 28
Turner is the crown jewel of this class. He has been known as a high AVG/SB guy for years, but he also provides a sneaky amount of power (28 homers in 2021!). There are lots of teams with a fuckload of money, and they should all be in on Turner. I am simply giving Turner to the team with the largest fuckload. The Orioles are building a nice farm, but they are going to have to begin supplementing that farm with MLB team sooner rather than later. Why not grab a SS who should be elite for several years to come?
2. Corey Seager, SS, 27
Seager is a year younger than Turner, though less well-rounded. This is again going to take a lot of money. The Astros like building around stars, and with no obvious long-term solution at short on their MLB or MiLB roster, I see them bringing Seager to Texas.
3. Freddie Freeman, 1B, 32
Freeman is, by far, the FA in the top 5 that’s most likely to go to a win-now team. Freeman’s profile should age well, but you are really paying for the next 2-3 years of elite production. If the Dodgers added an elite 1B, they would be near the top of NL pennant race. I see them spending most of their FA money here and getting a consistent middle-of-the-order presence.
4. Trevor Story, SS, 29
Story will of course lose value since he won’t be playing in Coors anymore, but the power/speed combination is real and worth betting on. I’d be surprised if the Phillies don’t go hard for one of the top SS, considering that’s maybe the main hole on their roster and Bryce (the only big contract) expires after 2023. I could see them settling for Story if they get blown out of the water by the big cap teams for the other guys.
5. Byron Buxton, CF, 28
I’m fascinated to see how this bidding goes. Yes, Buxton is an obvious injury risk, but when he’s healthy he’s a top-10 fantasy player. I see his market being suppressed (rightfully so?) and an opportunistic team with cap space like – fuck it, let’s say the A’s – jumping in with an offer.
6. Joey Gallo, LF, 28
Joey Gallo, a man of many talents, not among them hitting singles. Still, he hit 38 damn homers last season. The Cubs have shown a willingness in recent years to spend in this second tier of free agents, and I could see them doing it again with Gallo to complete a pretty talented lineup.
7. Justin Turner, 3B, 37
Turner is still a great hitter and there’s no reason to believe he can’t be productive through his late 30s. The Mets are the New Orleans Saints of ODC, operating as if there’s no cap and figuring it all out later. It seems to work out for them alright. I can see them dumping Didi and a few other big contracts to make way for Turner. If not, Turner could easily be a sign-and-trade candidate with someone else.
8. Lourdes Gurriel, LF, 28
Gurriel should have quite a nice market due to his consistency and his age. The Pirates have very few salary commitments and too much money to simply burn on prospect acquisition. Why not invest here?
9. Joey Votto, 1B, 38
Votto feels like a prime S&T candidate. I see the Orioles taking advantage, paying down the salary and moving him to the Padres, a well-rounded team that could use another bat for 2022 and has some scale depth to trade in return.
10. Enrique Hernandez, CF, 30
Enrique just had a great year at the plate and retains eligibility at two up-the-middle positions. I see this as a good opportunity to acquire a great utility guy with upside for more. The Brewers could use help at both 2B and OF, and they have the money to make this signing happen.
A few more notes about the list itself:
Players are listed with their primary position and their Opening Day 2022 age. I am not making any attempt to predict the contracts of these players, especially due to the recent cap raise. I am giving approximately two minutes to each team prediction itself, and honestly many of the big cap teams are interchangeable in this exercise, so feel free to swap yourselves in for Turner or whatever if you have the money for it.
1. Trea Turner, SS, 28
Turner is the crown jewel of this class. He has been known as a high AVG/SB guy for years, but he also provides a sneaky amount of power (28 homers in 2021!). There are lots of teams with a fuckload of money, and they should all be in on Turner. I am simply giving Turner to the team with the largest fuckload. The Orioles are building a nice farm, but they are going to have to begin supplementing that farm with MLB team sooner rather than later. Why not grab a SS who should be elite for several years to come?
2. Corey Seager, SS, 27
Seager is a year younger than Turner, though less well-rounded. This is again going to take a lot of money. The Astros like building around stars, and with no obvious long-term solution at short on their MLB or MiLB roster, I see them bringing Seager to Texas.
3. Freddie Freeman, 1B, 32
Freeman is, by far, the FA in the top 5 that’s most likely to go to a win-now team. Freeman’s profile should age well, but you are really paying for the next 2-3 years of elite production. If the Dodgers added an elite 1B, they would be near the top of NL pennant race. I see them spending most of their FA money here and getting a consistent middle-of-the-order presence.
4. Trevor Story, SS, 29
Story will of course lose value since he won’t be playing in Coors anymore, but the power/speed combination is real and worth betting on. I’d be surprised if the Phillies don’t go hard for one of the top SS, considering that’s maybe the main hole on their roster and Bryce (the only big contract) expires after 2023. I could see them settling for Story if they get blown out of the water by the big cap teams for the other guys.
5. Byron Buxton, CF, 28
I’m fascinated to see how this bidding goes. Yes, Buxton is an obvious injury risk, but when he’s healthy he’s a top-10 fantasy player. I see his market being suppressed (rightfully so?) and an opportunistic team with cap space like – fuck it, let’s say the A’s – jumping in with an offer.
6. Joey Gallo, LF, 28
Joey Gallo, a man of many talents, not among them hitting singles. Still, he hit 38 damn homers last season. The Cubs have shown a willingness in recent years to spend in this second tier of free agents, and I could see them doing it again with Gallo to complete a pretty talented lineup.
7. Justin Turner, 3B, 37
Turner is still a great hitter and there’s no reason to believe he can’t be productive through his late 30s. The Mets are the New Orleans Saints of ODC, operating as if there’s no cap and figuring it all out later. It seems to work out for them alright. I can see them dumping Didi and a few other big contracts to make way for Turner. If not, Turner could easily be a sign-and-trade candidate with someone else.
8. Lourdes Gurriel, LF, 28
Gurriel should have quite a nice market due to his consistency and his age. The Pirates have very few salary commitments and too much money to simply burn on prospect acquisition. Why not invest here?
9. Joey Votto, 1B, 38
Votto feels like a prime S&T candidate. I see the Orioles taking advantage, paying down the salary and moving him to the Padres, a well-rounded team that could use another bat for 2022 and has some scale depth to trade in return.
10. Enrique Hernandez, CF, 30
Enrique just had a great year at the plate and retains eligibility at two up-the-middle positions. I see this as a good opportunity to acquire a great utility guy with upside for more. The Brewers could use help at both 2B and OF, and they have the money to make this signing happen.
