2022 FA Rankings/Predictions - Pitchers
Jan 16, 2022 12:00:38 GMT -5
Mariners GM (David), Pirates GM (Caleb), and 2 more like this
Post by White Sox GM (Michael) on Jan 16, 2022 12:00:38 GMT -5
Time for the pitchers. This class doesn't have too many aces, but it's truly very deep. To me, there are two big tiers of starters, plus a few others of note. Within the tiers, these are my rankings, but some pitchers are better fits for teams based on age, risk, etc.
A few more notes about the list itself:
Players are listed with their primary position and their Opening Day 2022 age. I am not making any attempt to predict the contracts of these players, especially due to the recent cap raise. I am giving approximately two minutes to each team prediction itself, and honestly many of the big cap teams are interchangeable in this exercise, so feel free to swap yourselves in for Turner or whatever if you have the money for it.
Tier 1:
Joe Musgrove (29)
There are several pitchers with an argument for the top spot, but I think Musgrove provides the best combination of age, consistency, and upside. The Giants seem primed to be huge players in SP FA, I have them acquiring multiple pitchers and that starts with Musgrove.
Lance Lynn (34)
The best pitcher of this class for the 2022 season. He’s gonna continue to shove as long as his fastball velo holds. The Diamondbacks seem ready to go all-in and could really use a #2 starting pitcher. Why not get the best one available?
Jose Berrios (28)
Just a really good, really consistent pitcher. He’s well deserving of a big five-year deal. The Cubs are in need of a stabilizing presence for a young rotation, this seems like a good fit.
Eduardo Rodriguez (28)
I’m really curious what E-Rod goes for. Never a great ERA, but does getting the lefty out of Fenway help him? The Giants have enough money to add both Musgrove and E-Rod, why not?
Sean Manaea (30)
Manaea is like Berrios-lite to me. A little less consistent, a little older, a bit more injury history. But at this point, you know what you’re getting. The Red Sox have been super aggressive in FA, and I don’t really see them stopping now. A Manaea signing makes the rotation even more stable and injury-proof than before.
Nathan Eovaldi (32)
This is the last name of the top tier to me. Kinda amazing that there are six options that are all relatively close in value (not for 2022 only, but for the life of the contract). With the Astros’ intentions to contend soon, Eovaldi feels like a good fit. Most other teams with money are a few years away or are not as willing to plan for the now.
Tier 2:
Carlos Rodon (29)
What to make of Rodon? He just had an incredible breakout year, but then he didn’t receive a qualifying option. If not for the injury concern, he would be in that top tier, maybe ahead of Manaea. My feeling is some teams will see him as Tier 1. The Pirates have shown to be aggressive in FA, not always going for the safest options, and I can see them taking this high-upside chance on Rodon to anchor their pitching staff for the next few seasons.
Anthony Desclafani (31)
Tony Disco is a nice mid-range option. A little older than the others, so I think he will go relatively cheaply. The Royals have been patient with their cap space, but this could be a good opportunity to pounce while other teams are focused on bigger targets.
Zach Eflin (28)
Eflin is a bit of a gamble with the knee surgery, and he’s not the most thrilling name here, but he has lowkey been a very consistent starter since 2018. The Nationals have a lot of cap space, and while I know they are focused on the future, I don’t see them moving all that money for prospects or saving it for IFA.
Jon Gray (30)
Gray is a nice gamble coming out of Colorado, I think he could fare quite well, though it’s admittedly hard to predict how his pitches will move without the humidity. Reports out of Oakland are that the A’s don’t want to spend – where have we heard that before? – but there’s so much supply out there that I think they end up with a starter anyway.
Steven Matz (30)
Kinda saying the same shit over and over at some point with some of these guys. Matz is another mid-rotation starter. The Blue Jays are in need of some more pitching depth behind the top three. Now that their GM has internet connection, Matz feels like a good fit to eat up the rest of that cap space.
Two other interesting names:
Dylan Bundy (29)
Bundy is still pretty young! And he keeps getting opportunities in these garbage rotations. Maybe his new destination will be the one to unlock him. Seems like a guy who can be got on a modest three-or-so-year deal. The Guardians feel like a good fit to start building up the MLB pitching while remaining flexible in future seasons.
Patrick Corbin (32)
Maybe just an innings-eater at this point, maybe much more? I see him going to one of the competitive teams with some money to spare, let’s go with the Braves.
As for relief pitchers, I don’t fucking know. I’m not checking which random RPs had a 2.5 ERA for the Reds. So I’m not ranking that shit.
A few more notes about the list itself:
Players are listed with their primary position and their Opening Day 2022 age. I am not making any attempt to predict the contracts of these players, especially due to the recent cap raise. I am giving approximately two minutes to each team prediction itself, and honestly many of the big cap teams are interchangeable in this exercise, so feel free to swap yourselves in for Turner or whatever if you have the money for it.
Tier 1:
Joe Musgrove (29)
There are several pitchers with an argument for the top spot, but I think Musgrove provides the best combination of age, consistency, and upside. The Giants seem primed to be huge players in SP FA, I have them acquiring multiple pitchers and that starts with Musgrove.
Lance Lynn (34)
The best pitcher of this class for the 2022 season. He’s gonna continue to shove as long as his fastball velo holds. The Diamondbacks seem ready to go all-in and could really use a #2 starting pitcher. Why not get the best one available?
Jose Berrios (28)
Just a really good, really consistent pitcher. He’s well deserving of a big five-year deal. The Cubs are in need of a stabilizing presence for a young rotation, this seems like a good fit.
Eduardo Rodriguez (28)
I’m really curious what E-Rod goes for. Never a great ERA, but does getting the lefty out of Fenway help him? The Giants have enough money to add both Musgrove and E-Rod, why not?
Sean Manaea (30)
Manaea is like Berrios-lite to me. A little less consistent, a little older, a bit more injury history. But at this point, you know what you’re getting. The Red Sox have been super aggressive in FA, and I don’t really see them stopping now. A Manaea signing makes the rotation even more stable and injury-proof than before.
Nathan Eovaldi (32)
This is the last name of the top tier to me. Kinda amazing that there are six options that are all relatively close in value (not for 2022 only, but for the life of the contract). With the Astros’ intentions to contend soon, Eovaldi feels like a good fit. Most other teams with money are a few years away or are not as willing to plan for the now.
Tier 2:
Carlos Rodon (29)
What to make of Rodon? He just had an incredible breakout year, but then he didn’t receive a qualifying option. If not for the injury concern, he would be in that top tier, maybe ahead of Manaea. My feeling is some teams will see him as Tier 1. The Pirates have shown to be aggressive in FA, not always going for the safest options, and I can see them taking this high-upside chance on Rodon to anchor their pitching staff for the next few seasons.
Anthony Desclafani (31)
Tony Disco is a nice mid-range option. A little older than the others, so I think he will go relatively cheaply. The Royals have been patient with their cap space, but this could be a good opportunity to pounce while other teams are focused on bigger targets.
Zach Eflin (28)
Eflin is a bit of a gamble with the knee surgery, and he’s not the most thrilling name here, but he has lowkey been a very consistent starter since 2018. The Nationals have a lot of cap space, and while I know they are focused on the future, I don’t see them moving all that money for prospects or saving it for IFA.
Jon Gray (30)
Gray is a nice gamble coming out of Colorado, I think he could fare quite well, though it’s admittedly hard to predict how his pitches will move without the humidity. Reports out of Oakland are that the A’s don’t want to spend – where have we heard that before? – but there’s so much supply out there that I think they end up with a starter anyway.
Steven Matz (30)
Kinda saying the same shit over and over at some point with some of these guys. Matz is another mid-rotation starter. The Blue Jays are in need of some more pitching depth behind the top three. Now that their GM has internet connection, Matz feels like a good fit to eat up the rest of that cap space.
Two other interesting names:
Dylan Bundy (29)
Bundy is still pretty young! And he keeps getting opportunities in these garbage rotations. Maybe his new destination will be the one to unlock him. Seems like a guy who can be got on a modest three-or-so-year deal. The Guardians feel like a good fit to start building up the MLB pitching while remaining flexible in future seasons.
Patrick Corbin (32)
Maybe just an innings-eater at this point, maybe much more? I see him going to one of the competitive teams with some money to spare, let’s go with the Braves.
As for relief pitchers, I don’t fucking know. I’m not checking which random RPs had a 2.5 ERA for the Reds. So I’m not ranking that shit.
