ODC 2022 Franchise Power Rankings
Jan 27, 2022 11:24:17 GMT -5
White Sox GM (Michael), Tigers GM (Alex), and 8 more like this
Post by Brewers GM (Marty) on Jan 27, 2022 11:24:17 GMT -5
Quick note on the method. I'm accounting for the next 3-4 seasons starting in 2022 assuming that the major franchise pieces stay together when deciding on ability to contend and continue to contend to the end of that timeline. For MILB I'm including picks in this evaluation, and I'm also weighting the top end talent vs. role players. Obviously this is subjective and my opinion on some guys at role player vs. stud might differ.
Obviously for a lot of owners this timeline is too long and you just fucking never know. Me for example. And you know Will won't piece the MLB portion to the Rays. And Mike's, Pat's, and Noah's farms will all blow but they'll figure out a way to contend through trades. What I'm trying to say is that these will probably only be semi-valid to the end of the week.
Given how many young hitters have struggled after their first MLB promotions, I'm not weighting upper minors bats as highly for 2022 standings as I have in the past. Pitching seems to hold up for the most part.
I'll post division by division, East to West, AL to NL
AL EAST
1. New York Yankees
2022 Outlook: I hate myself for this one and it was a close decision. Offensively this team is the most well rounded as of the end of January. There are sources for every category and even though the Red Sox have an extremely strong group of mid-order hitters, there's a ton of power in this lineup as well. I still think the outfield is light but they'll contribute where they need to and a Kepler bounceback season isn't out of the question. Not much to say about the pitching. He's shed some depth but it's a very strong group in all categories. There's depth in the minors as well that can contribute this year.
Beyond: Let's face it, Justin doesn't trade though arbitration costs might force more change than he'd like. That said guys like Moreno, Cruz, McLain, Cavalli, Perez, etc. will help fill in. There's a ton of options in the upper and lower minors here that can be plugged in over the next 3-4 seasons. Ultimately the impact talent that's here is tipping the balance over the Red Sox for first, even though I think it'll be a fun ALCS when they meet.
2. Boston Red Sox
2022 Outlook: This is a close decision between two monsters. This team is deep offensively at every position, though similar to the Yankees I think the strength is in the infield and this team is potentially very weak in the outfield. Ozuna is a question mark after missing last year and Bellinger was one of the worst regulars for the past 2 years. These are two players this team will count on. The version of these guys that Rick gets will determine a lot. I do think that one category that's lacking are steals, but with all the production this team can expect punting them is reasonable. There's a lot of outstanding starters on this staff and it'll take a lot of injuries to harm the depth of this group. The main reinforcement could come from Hunter Greene, but beyond Greene there's a lot of swing starter back-end types that Rick hopefully won't need.
Beyond: Greene and Spencer Torkelson are the names to watch here. However outside of that the help beyond depthy types is pretty sparse. I'm not as down on Dominguez as some others, Duran looked like a future contributor next year and Andy Pages broke out. Yes some of these arms could pan out as more than back end, but it's more a sheer volume play. There are a number of expiring contracts and some cap woes starting next year. We'll see how Rick manages that situation next offseason but there might just be a 2 year window on this one before a teardown.
3. Toronto Blue Jays
2022 Outlook: Let's face it, he's in 3rd because the O's and Rays will be working to make minimums. There's not enough here to compete with BOS or NYY, possibly not enough to get to a wild card without being willing to gut his minors to fill in his roster. He has possibly/probably the best bat in the league and two of the top starters in the league. The names he has are solid or better for the most part, but this roster is paper thin top to bottom. What's thinner than paper? Per google graphene is a million times thinner than paper. This is graphene thin for a team that's not tanking.
Beyond: The good news is that he controls Vlad and Bieber for 3 and 2 more years respectively. That's unfortunately all of it. A healthy season makes Sixto a valuable asset. If it was anyone but Sanders we'd probably see a teardown happening right now. He doesn't have any prospects that project to anchor his lineup or rotation in the future, and he has 4 picks (3 firsts) in the first 3 rounds of the next 2 drafts. This beyond ranking honestly is going to be the furthest off of any that I do because it's purely on speculation of trade returns that he probably won't make. Vlad, Scherz, JD, Biebs, Brantley, and Arraez could net future assets. 3rd place is most likely his ceiling barring miracles for the next 4 years.
4. Baltimore Orioles
2022 Outlook: He's just looking for minimums, though I expect Pedro Alvarez and Carlos Gonzalez to be a potent 1 2 punch this year.
Beyond: I honestly think that 2-3 trades of younger MLB assets like Tyler Stephenson ago I would have placed the O's in front of the Jays. Yes the Jays MLB is stronger this year but I liked some of the guys he moved and thought that when this rotation hits the Bigs those guys could have contributed. I think there's a ton of impact arms on this farm. 3B is definitely stocked, ideally some of those guys move on the diamond defensively. He's got a pile of picks in the first round of the 2023 draft which I believe will slow his timeline, though potentially those guys become trade assets to fill out his roster as he's moving towards contention. He'll have 113M in obligations coming off the books and very little salary to speak of after 2022, so he could do something in FA's to speed the timeline if he wants.
5. Tampa Bay Rays
2022 Outlook: He'll be struggling to part with stuff that will guarantee him to hit the minimums.
Beyond: He has some high risk high reward talent at the top end of his farm and depth now after parting with anything useful to anyone from his MLB roster. The talent in this farm is also just getting to A-ball, so it's all likely 3 years away at best which is why for this 3-4 year timeline the Rays are in 5th. He's also got 3 of the first 6 picks in what should be a very strong draft.
Overview:
There are 2 things in this division that stand out to me: One is that the Yankees and Red Sox are probably the two best teams in the AL and ODC overall barring disaster and will be for the next 3-4 years. I believe more in Justin's talent pipeline which is what pushes him to the first spot but it's close. I also don't know what Rick's salary crunch in 2023 will force him to do. The other thing is that the two rebuilders hunting for PA/IP minimums this year are probably healthier than the Jays despite his being ahead of them. Jeff and Will have similar farms (once the 2022 draft is done) but Jeff's timeline is closer and he'll probably consistently finish ahead of the Rays for this 3-4 year timeline. Not that it's a high bar to clear.
Division Champ: Yankees
Wild Card: Red Sox
Out: Jays, O's, Rays
Obviously for a lot of owners this timeline is too long and you just fucking never know. Me for example. And you know Will won't piece the MLB portion to the Rays. And Mike's, Pat's, and Noah's farms will all blow but they'll figure out a way to contend through trades. What I'm trying to say is that these will probably only be semi-valid to the end of the week.
Given how many young hitters have struggled after their first MLB promotions, I'm not weighting upper minors bats as highly for 2022 standings as I have in the past. Pitching seems to hold up for the most part.
I'll post division by division, East to West, AL to NL
AL EAST
1. New York Yankees
2022 Outlook: I hate myself for this one and it was a close decision. Offensively this team is the most well rounded as of the end of January. There are sources for every category and even though the Red Sox have an extremely strong group of mid-order hitters, there's a ton of power in this lineup as well. I still think the outfield is light but they'll contribute where they need to and a Kepler bounceback season isn't out of the question. Not much to say about the pitching. He's shed some depth but it's a very strong group in all categories. There's depth in the minors as well that can contribute this year.
Beyond: Let's face it, Justin doesn't trade though arbitration costs might force more change than he'd like. That said guys like Moreno, Cruz, McLain, Cavalli, Perez, etc. will help fill in. There's a ton of options in the upper and lower minors here that can be plugged in over the next 3-4 seasons. Ultimately the impact talent that's here is tipping the balance over the Red Sox for first, even though I think it'll be a fun ALCS when they meet.
2. Boston Red Sox
2022 Outlook: This is a close decision between two monsters. This team is deep offensively at every position, though similar to the Yankees I think the strength is in the infield and this team is potentially very weak in the outfield. Ozuna is a question mark after missing last year and Bellinger was one of the worst regulars for the past 2 years. These are two players this team will count on. The version of these guys that Rick gets will determine a lot. I do think that one category that's lacking are steals, but with all the production this team can expect punting them is reasonable. There's a lot of outstanding starters on this staff and it'll take a lot of injuries to harm the depth of this group. The main reinforcement could come from Hunter Greene, but beyond Greene there's a lot of swing starter back-end types that Rick hopefully won't need.
Beyond: Greene and Spencer Torkelson are the names to watch here. However outside of that the help beyond depthy types is pretty sparse. I'm not as down on Dominguez as some others, Duran looked like a future contributor next year and Andy Pages broke out. Yes some of these arms could pan out as more than back end, but it's more a sheer volume play. There are a number of expiring contracts and some cap woes starting next year. We'll see how Rick manages that situation next offseason but there might just be a 2 year window on this one before a teardown.
3. Toronto Blue Jays
2022 Outlook: Let's face it, he's in 3rd because the O's and Rays will be working to make minimums. There's not enough here to compete with BOS or NYY, possibly not enough to get to a wild card without being willing to gut his minors to fill in his roster. He has possibly/probably the best bat in the league and two of the top starters in the league. The names he has are solid or better for the most part, but this roster is paper thin top to bottom. What's thinner than paper? Per google graphene is a million times thinner than paper. This is graphene thin for a team that's not tanking.
Beyond: The good news is that he controls Vlad and Bieber for 3 and 2 more years respectively. That's unfortunately all of it. A healthy season makes Sixto a valuable asset. If it was anyone but Sanders we'd probably see a teardown happening right now. He doesn't have any prospects that project to anchor his lineup or rotation in the future, and he has 4 picks (3 firsts) in the first 3 rounds of the next 2 drafts. This beyond ranking honestly is going to be the furthest off of any that I do because it's purely on speculation of trade returns that he probably won't make. Vlad, Scherz, JD, Biebs, Brantley, and Arraez could net future assets. 3rd place is most likely his ceiling barring miracles for the next 4 years.
4. Baltimore Orioles
2022 Outlook: He's just looking for minimums, though I expect Pedro Alvarez and Carlos Gonzalez to be a potent 1 2 punch this year.
Beyond: I honestly think that 2-3 trades of younger MLB assets like Tyler Stephenson ago I would have placed the O's in front of the Jays. Yes the Jays MLB is stronger this year but I liked some of the guys he moved and thought that when this rotation hits the Bigs those guys could have contributed. I think there's a ton of impact arms on this farm. 3B is definitely stocked, ideally some of those guys move on the diamond defensively. He's got a pile of picks in the first round of the 2023 draft which I believe will slow his timeline, though potentially those guys become trade assets to fill out his roster as he's moving towards contention. He'll have 113M in obligations coming off the books and very little salary to speak of after 2022, so he could do something in FA's to speed the timeline if he wants.
5. Tampa Bay Rays
2022 Outlook: He'll be struggling to part with stuff that will guarantee him to hit the minimums.
Beyond: He has some high risk high reward talent at the top end of his farm and depth now after parting with anything useful to anyone from his MLB roster. The talent in this farm is also just getting to A-ball, so it's all likely 3 years away at best which is why for this 3-4 year timeline the Rays are in 5th. He's also got 3 of the first 6 picks in what should be a very strong draft.
Overview:
There are 2 things in this division that stand out to me: One is that the Yankees and Red Sox are probably the two best teams in the AL and ODC overall barring disaster and will be for the next 3-4 years. I believe more in Justin's talent pipeline which is what pushes him to the first spot but it's close. I also don't know what Rick's salary crunch in 2023 will force him to do. The other thing is that the two rebuilders hunting for PA/IP minimums this year are probably healthier than the Jays despite his being ahead of them. Jeff and Will have similar farms (once the 2022 draft is done) but Jeff's timeline is closer and he'll probably consistently finish ahead of the Rays for this 3-4 year timeline. Not that it's a high bar to clear.
Division Champ: Yankees
Wild Card: Red Sox
Out: Jays, O's, Rays
