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Post by Rays GM on Apr 5, 2023 10:15:29 GMT -5
Aight, I'm bringing back farm rankings, with quick blurbs on noticeable prospects. I won't be going as in depth as 3 years ago where I wrote 100,000 words.
I'll be using a 20/80 scale for ranking prospects, where 20 is MILB depth, and 80 is franchise player. The (xx/xx) score after each player denotes what I think a realistic floor/ceiling is for each player from a fantasy perspective.
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Post by Rays GM on Apr 5, 2023 10:17:37 GMT -5
30. Minnesota Twins- Not a single prospect ranked above 35 FV
Once up a time, Carlos Vargas and Junior Sanquitin were interesting power first prospects. Drew Millas still has a shot of being a defense first backup catcher.
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Post by Rays GM on Apr 8, 2023 22:50:57 GMT -5
29. Seattle Mariners
1) Adrian Pinto - 40 FV (30/50)
2) SP Elmer Rodriguez Cruz - 40 FV (30/50)
3) 2B Dylan O'Rae - 40 FV (25/50)
4) 1B Sonny Dicharia - 35+ FV (20/45)
Others of note - Spencer Giesting SP, Magnus Ellerts SP, Shawn Guilliams SP
I had a hard time ranking Pinto, Elmer, and O'Rae, which tells you I'm taking this writeup way too seriously. But I think Pinto provides the best combination of floor and upside as an athletic middle IF that has a good feel to hit and approach. Elmer did well last year and is super projectable from the left side, so he has the building blocks to be a backend guy one day. O'Rae is a bit like Pinto without the track record, but the Brewers thought he could develop into a 2nd round pick in college so they signed him away from his commitment last year. Dicharia has a great approach, but meh in game power for a 1B and got his ass kicked in AA last year.
Giesting, Ellerts, and Guilliams have interesting stuff, but I like Giesting's frame and stuff the most and he has the best chance to remain a SP here.
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Post by Rays GM on Apr 8, 2023 23:07:31 GMT -5
28. Detroit Tigers
1) OF Yerlin Luis - 40 FV (20/55)
2) SP Henry Williams - 40 FV (20/55)
3) Emaarion Boyd - 40 FV (20/55)
4) Raymond Mola - 40 FV (20/50)
Other to note:
Andy Acevedo, Darling Fernandez, Maikol Orozco, Ludwig Espinoza, Manuel Cabrera
Despite Alex's guys having 0 track record compared to Dave's, I think we as a league value upside, and so do I. There's a smattering of IFA guys here that are interesting, along with interesting mid draft HS stashes. Yerlin has my favorite hit driven profile that might play in CF, and now he's with the guardians who love guys like him. Williams was a two way guy in HS but is gonna give the chance to start; he has the stuff and frame to really shoot up. Boyd is a solid all around OF without much in wow tools, but this profiles right now as a solid 4th OF, with regular upside if the hit tool holds. Mola has a sweet ass swing from the left side, but is a corner only profile so the upside is capped.
Acevedo to Cabrera are all recent IFA signees, with interesting enough profiles but not enough for me to rank in even the 35+ FV tier, but obviously way too early to knock on them yet. Given the random nature of prospects, I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of these guys become top 200 prospects one day, but I'll be lying if I told you I knew for sure who they would be.
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Post by Rays GM on Apr 8, 2023 23:21:23 GMT -5
27. Atlanta Braves
1) SP DL Hall - 45+ FV (40/55)
2) OF Colin Barber - 40+ FV (30/55)
Other to note:
Cam Schlitter, Jeter Downs, Jorge Juan, Logan Davidson, Levi Prater
There's definitely a jump from Alex's farm to Curt's farm, as Hall and Barber are good, solid prospects with upside. While Alex's farm has a bit more depth in guys I actually like, I think Curt can absolutely sign a few IFAs to fill out his farm. In Hall's case, there's a power RP floor and impact starter upside, but lately, with his command issues, I think he's going to end up a (dominant) RP who can give you length. Barber has all the tools you want in a solid CF regular with good approach and speed, but injury concerns are starting to sap his development time and growth. This year will be huge for him.
In the others section, these are all guys who, if they make the bigs as role players, will be a huge win. Schlitter is ranked here first because he's on the Yankees, who develop no name arms better than almost everyone (and he has a decent college record with a good fastball). The rest of these guys used to be bigger prospects, so you hope some tweaks can unlock something interesting here, and if not, are mins bait.
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Post by Rays GM on Apr 8, 2023 23:36:41 GMT -5
26. Houston Astros
1) SP - Dylan Lesko - 45+ FV (30/60)
2) SP - Ty Madden - 45+ FV (40/55)
3) 3B - Peyton Graham - 45 FV (35/55)
4) SP - Mitch Bratt - 40+ FV (35/50)
5) RP - Enoli Paredes - 40 FV (30/45)
Others of note:
Andry Lara SP, Austin Cox RP, Patrick Weigel RP, Holden Powell RP
This is going to start a run of farms that can be interchangeable, but this is a clear tier up on the above farms. The one issue holding this farm back against others is its arm dependent and the best hitter here is volatile. Lesko is the smoothest RHP in the draft since....Jackson Jobe, which doesn't bode well. Still, if healthy, the changeup and command will make him a sigh to behold. Madden has midrotation upside, and dominated last year. Graham has star level tools, but has approach issues and isn't in the best org to maximize him. Bratt had a monster year by numbers, but the stuff points more to a backend role. Paredes is a RP at this point, with wavering upper level success.
The others section includes a pu pu platter of RP prospects, and a volatile SP prospect in Lara.
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Post by Rays GM on Apr 9, 2023 0:00:10 GMT -5
25. Los Angeles Dodgers
1) C - Yanier Diaz 50+ FV (45/60)
2) 3b - Noelvi Marte 50 FV (40/65)
3) SP - Ken Waldichuk 45+ FV (40/55)
4) RP - Nate Pearson 40+ FV (20/55)
5) OF - Blake Dunn 40+ FV (40/50)
6) OF - Robert Calaz 40 FV (20/60)
Others of note:
Juan Carela SP, Mo Hanley SP, JB Buskaukus RP, Hans Crouse RP, Kevin Abel SP, Tyler Ivey RP
Giving Jake the nod here as he has an impact bat in Diaz who can play a valuable position, and I expect the Astros to maximize him. He offers plus pop with good bat to ball abilities - reining in his approach will give him all star upside. Waldichuk looks like a very good RP or solid SP with mid rotation stuff, but we'll see if he can stick in Oak this year. Pearson is a toss up at this point. Huge stuff, but no health track record.
The others of note include interesting RP prospects who double as SP reclamation projects. Short writeup, but this farm is really just two guys with near term impact.
****Trade Update***
Noelvi Marte is, along with Zac Veen, probably one of the most divisive prospects in the minors. Here's the good - he combines near top of the scale raw power (Max EV scrape 120) with a good swstr/contact rate, which, in theory, should belie a star hitter. But there's been questions of the consistency of the contact and barrel ability (Avg EV is 85), and enough reports of lack of effort/maturity where it presents a real evaluation conundrum. Is his lack of consistent contact because he dogs it too often, or is there something else going in his ability to barrel balls? I'm not sure, but look - the building blocks are here, he's freakishly talented, and he's going to play in Cincinnati's bandbox of a field. There's a lot of upside here, but it's up to him to maximize it.
Blake Dunn was a sleeper in the draft a couple years ago, with big power and speed tools, but a lack of polish. He's had very little reps these past few years due to Covid and injuries, but is hitting the crap out of the ball now in A ball (at 24). I think the tools + growth opportunities presents a ton of interesting upside, and it wouldn't shock me to see him become a late bloomer like a James Outman one day.
Calaz is a lottery ticket with a huge power/speed combo. Typical IFA gamble.
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Post by Rays GM on May 6, 2023 15:16:39 GMT -5
24. Cincinnati Reds
1) C - Dalton Rushing 50+ FV (40/65)
2) SP - Lawrence Butler 45 FV (30/60)
3) SP - Michal Mcgreevy 40+ FV (40/50)
3) RP - Cole Winn 40+ FV (40/50)
4) SP - Walter Ford 40+ FV (30/60)
5) SP - Asa Lacy 40+ FV (20/65)
Others of note:
Ryan Ritter, Sean Mclain, Daniel Mielcarek, Tyler Hardman, Trey Lipscomb
I think the world of Rushing, who I suspect is already a prospect on par with Henry Davis, the guy who started at Louisville at catcher before him and went #1 in his draft. It's a potential 6/6 bat (models love him), but if he doesn't catch, the bar is going to be higher. Butler has all the big tools and frame you want a prospect, but there's a scary contact/approach profile here, so this is a classic boom/bust prospect. I gave Mcgreevy/Winn nods over Ford and Lacy because I value there proximity and floor. Ford is a super young (this is his age 18 season) and projectable RHP in a great pitcher dev org with the mariners, so this is the guy to target in trades. Lacy has been awful with his command, but his stuff is on par with the best amateur pitchers in the world. You wonder if the Royals awful pitcher dev doomed him - change of scenery guy for sure.
For the others of note, Ritter has run one of the lowest swstr rates so far this year, so despite his boring middle IF profile, I really like that he has one carrying tool as a utility guy. Mclain can really run and is with the Dodgers, so you never know; Mielcarek is a recent dodgers SS IFA signee. Don't know much, but the Dodgers seems to really find these type of guys and turn them into something, so you never know. Hardman hasn't hit well this year, but I remember his EV data was very strong, so there's something here for a bench role. It might not matter if he's a 1B tho.
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Post by Rays GM on May 6, 2023 15:50:44 GMT -5
23. Arizona Diamondbacks
1) SP - Gordon Graceffo - 45+ FV (45/55)
2) 3B - Bryan Ramos - 45 FV (40/55)
3) SP - Carson Wisenhunt - 45 FV (40/55)
4) SP - Hunter Barco - 40+ FV (40/55)
5) SS - Williams Bergolla - 40+ FV (30/60)
6) OF - Greg Jones - 40 FV (30/55)
7) SS - Matthew Lugo - 40 FV (35/50)
8) OF - Jay Allen - 40 FV (20/60)
Others of note:
Grant Holmes, Nick Bitsko, Anderson Espinoza, Harold Coll, Ty Floyd, Bryce Osmond, Alex Mcfarlane, Jorge Guzman, Chris Mcmahon
This farm is much deeper than those coming before, but while it has a lot of guys with interesting profiles, there's not a star guy here. Instead, it's a mix of high floor guys, or toolsy bats/arms who are trending downwards.
Graceffo and Wisenhunt profile are very good #4 guys, with me leaning to Graceffo because of his deep arsenal (chance for 4 55+ pitches), plus pitchability, and strong upper level performance. Ramos is a corner only masher with a chance for a 55/60 bat, but his approach is scary for a guy who needs to hit. Barco was a favorite of mind for a long time in college, and while his upside didn't match his florida teammates, he's a safe bet to be a backend arm. Bergolla has an extreme contact + approach pure SS profile, a really fun throwback. The extreme lack of raw power may mean older pitchers will dare them to beat him, and while he might grow into raw power, there's some Luis Garcia risk here of being overpowered. Still, there's a path to a 70/30 bat here, and combined with his speed and snug fit at SS, might turn him into a fantasy pseudo star.
Jones, Lugo, and Allen were guys who flirted with top 150 lists before, but lack of hitting skills put them here. Allen is the best athlete, but got his ass kicked last year. Jones offers the most versatility and fantasy breaking speed, but there is now a multiyear track record of him just not being a good pure hitter, dating back to college. Lugo is the most boring one here, lacking high end physical traits, but he's got the best shot of ending up as a bench bat.
I've written a lot already here, so I'm not going to go crazy deep on the others of note prospects here. Holmes offers the highest floor as a RP here, but the rest are arms with big stuff but injuries, command, and poor performance have relegated them to the spray and pray bucket. If them become effective RPs, you can call it a win.
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Post by Rays GM on May 12, 2023 1:02:20 GMT -5
22. San Diego Padres
1) SS - Cole Young - 50+ FV (45/65)
2) OF - Garrett Mitchell - 45+ FV (40/60)
3) SP - Wilmer Flores - 45+ FV (40/55)
4) SP - Joey Cantillo- 45 FV (40/50)
5) SP - Cole Wilcox - 40+ FV (35/55)
6) 1B - Samuel Munoz - 40 FV (30/60)
7) SS - Oswaldo Osorio - 40 FV (30/60)
8) SS - Ricardo Cabrera - 40 FV (30/60)
9) SP - Jamie Melendez - 40 FV (35/45)
10) SP - Justin Lange - 40 FV (30/55)
11) SP - Jairo Iriarte - 40 FV (30/55)
Others of note:
Brailyn Marquez, Joshua Mears, Inohan Panigua, Jairo Iriarte
Noah gets the nod over Hemmons here because Cole Young is my favorite prospect out of the two farms. Young combines an extremely high floor with plus contact, approach, and glove, and is finally flashing exciting power, but be caution A ball Everett has shown to juice the power of other guys before (See, Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo, Axel Sanchez). Still, the upside is an all star SS with the floor of a ML utility guy would mean he goes in the top 8 of most drafts.
Garrett Mitchell has bonanza speed and power, glove and arm, but his swing and approach has been tinkered with constantly to get the ball in the air (his amateur swing just mashed balls into the ground), and his new approach, before he got injured, actualized his power, but at a 40+ K rate. Boom or bust guy, but could settle into an uneven but exciting fantasy regular with a slash of 230/300/450 with about 20 steals in CF.
Flores, Cantillo, and Wilcox look like backend guys with high floors, but Wilcox will show you better stuff at times, while Flores has the most well rounded profile. Cantillo is a deception heavy lefty, and he will whiff a surprising amount of guys in the majors if his command comes back.
Munoz, Osworio, and Cabrera are really interesting DSL guy; Munoz has the best hit power combination here, but at 1B, while Osworio has the tools, defense, and power to really take off (I think the Dodgers put him in a ST game at 17, so they must like him somewhat), but his swing causes some questions here. Cabrera is the most famous guy here, but he didn't really hit all that well in the DSL. Still, if one of these guys pop and becomes a top 100 prospect, I won't be at all shocked.
Melendez and Lange are both 40 FVs through different routes; Melendez looks like a swingman through boring stuff, but Lange has monster athleticism and stuff and has looked better this year, but command is still an issue.
Iriarte has little track record, but showed up last year flashing 3 55 FV pitches. Someone to monitor, but lots of relief risk here, but like the upside.
For the others of note, you have injury reclamation guys like Brailyn, buy low guys like Rolison, and lottery tickets like Mears.
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