Free Agency Predictions
Jan 7, 2024 13:01:17 GMT -5
Astros GM (Max), Mets GM (Jack), and 3 more like this
Post by Royals GM (Adam) on Jan 7, 2024 13:01:17 GMT -5
This year’s free agency has a ton of big names, both hitters and pitchers. The biggest of them all, Shohei Ohtani, is set to break a league record in guaranteed money. Who will sign him and the rest of the best? We’re making some predictions here. We will predict the top five hitters and top five pitchers, predicting the team and contract for each.
Hitters
1.Shohei Ohtani (UTIL) - He’s listed as a pitcher on pro boards but I’m listing him as a hitter because he will not pitch next year. This guy will get the biggest deal in the league’s history. This one might come down to two teams, Seattle and Philadelphia. They’ve spent their offseason clearing cap, acquiring money. Angels could make a push with their $100 million of available cap, but I’m going with the fervor over all. Seattle Mariners, 5 years, $72 million per.
2. Juan Soto (LF) - Soto is another franchise player available to the highest bidder. I’m going the easy route here because he owns a nice hometown discount. Angels would be foolish not to use on a player like Soto. Los Angeles Angels, 5 years, $55 million per.
3. Bryce Harper (1B) - It feels like Harper got a dent put in him last season. Nevertheless, it would be foolish not to consider him a franchise player. My thought process goes two ways with this one. Philadelphia, who has been trying to keep Harper on the down low all offseason, uses their cash and discount to re-sign him. Seems most likely. My other thought is that Harper is a prime candidate for a new franchise owner to use their cash and make a splash. I think Colorado could be a real dark horse here. With only Turner on their roster at 1B, it feels like a possibility. Atlanta too, who has no first baseman on their roster and no prospects at the position. But I’ll take the easy way out. Philadelphia Phillies, 5 years, $48 million per.
4.Nolan Arenado (3B) - Arenado is still a blue chip bat at a premium position. It’s been hard to find steady third basemen around the league. He feels like he could power a playoff lineup looking to take the next step this year. Is it enough for the Los Angeles Angels? Los Angeles Angels, 5 years, $22 million per.
5.Cedric Mullins (CF) - Mullins builds a lot of his value on being able to steal bases. He’s young at 29 and although he probably will never be the 30-home run hitter he was three years ago, Mullins will still have value for a team. This is a hard one to place, so I’ll go with a new owner, lots of money to spend and not a lot of players. Atlanta Braves, 5 years, $20 million per.
Pitchers
1. Gerrit Cole (SP) - This feels like the Padres. They want starting pitching. Thirty-three years old coming off of a 7-WAR season should get more than premium money. Could Cole put the Friars over the top? San Diego Padres, 5 years, $30 million per.
2. Aaron Nola (SP) - A low key great pitcher. Any team would be lucky to get him if they miss out on Cole. Starting pitching has been hard to place because I feel like a lot of teams want all-in on the premium, franchise hitters. So I think this becomes a splashy move for a new owner. Washington Nationals, 5 years, $25 million per.
3.Blake Snell (SP) - It feels like his interest will depend on where he ends up signing. If he signs with the Yankees, would that attract more than the Giants or Angels? Using their hometown discount could help the Padres lock down two top starters this offseason, but will the money work? I’m going out on a limb here with a team that has money, has been adding pitching and made the playoffs. Cleveland Indians, 5 years, $22 million per.
4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (SP) - The shiny new toy. Certain teams will like the depressed price on an unknown commodity. There’s no reason for it, but I have noticed that Japanese players haven’t gotten as much money as proven commodities during my time in the league. This could be a building block for a franchise. Colorado Rockies, 5 years, $22 million per.
5. Josh Hader (CL) - I’m forgoing a lot better free agents to get to a closer with the last spot. Colorado wanted a closer and got Kenley Jansen, so I’m assuming they might be out here. I feel like he goes to a mid-level to playoff team who is willing to invest in a closer trying to make that push into the playoffs. That makes me think of the Milwaukee and Los Angeles Dodgers. Would Milwaukee invest in a former hometown hero? Milwaukee Brewers, 5 years, $12 million per.
Hitters
1.Shohei Ohtani (UTIL) - He’s listed as a pitcher on pro boards but I’m listing him as a hitter because he will not pitch next year. This guy will get the biggest deal in the league’s history. This one might come down to two teams, Seattle and Philadelphia. They’ve spent their offseason clearing cap, acquiring money. Angels could make a push with their $100 million of available cap, but I’m going with the fervor over all. Seattle Mariners, 5 years, $72 million per.
2. Juan Soto (LF) - Soto is another franchise player available to the highest bidder. I’m going the easy route here because he owns a nice hometown discount. Angels would be foolish not to use on a player like Soto. Los Angeles Angels, 5 years, $55 million per.
3. Bryce Harper (1B) - It feels like Harper got a dent put in him last season. Nevertheless, it would be foolish not to consider him a franchise player. My thought process goes two ways with this one. Philadelphia, who has been trying to keep Harper on the down low all offseason, uses their cash and discount to re-sign him. Seems most likely. My other thought is that Harper is a prime candidate for a new franchise owner to use their cash and make a splash. I think Colorado could be a real dark horse here. With only Turner on their roster at 1B, it feels like a possibility. Atlanta too, who has no first baseman on their roster and no prospects at the position. But I’ll take the easy way out. Philadelphia Phillies, 5 years, $48 million per.
4.Nolan Arenado (3B) - Arenado is still a blue chip bat at a premium position. It’s been hard to find steady third basemen around the league. He feels like he could power a playoff lineup looking to take the next step this year. Is it enough for the Los Angeles Angels? Los Angeles Angels, 5 years, $22 million per.
5.Cedric Mullins (CF) - Mullins builds a lot of his value on being able to steal bases. He’s young at 29 and although he probably will never be the 30-home run hitter he was three years ago, Mullins will still have value for a team. This is a hard one to place, so I’ll go with a new owner, lots of money to spend and not a lot of players. Atlanta Braves, 5 years, $20 million per.
Pitchers
1. Gerrit Cole (SP) - This feels like the Padres. They want starting pitching. Thirty-three years old coming off of a 7-WAR season should get more than premium money. Could Cole put the Friars over the top? San Diego Padres, 5 years, $30 million per.
2. Aaron Nola (SP) - A low key great pitcher. Any team would be lucky to get him if they miss out on Cole. Starting pitching has been hard to place because I feel like a lot of teams want all-in on the premium, franchise hitters. So I think this becomes a splashy move for a new owner. Washington Nationals, 5 years, $25 million per.
3.Blake Snell (SP) - It feels like his interest will depend on where he ends up signing. If he signs with the Yankees, would that attract more than the Giants or Angels? Using their hometown discount could help the Padres lock down two top starters this offseason, but will the money work? I’m going out on a limb here with a team that has money, has been adding pitching and made the playoffs. Cleveland Indians, 5 years, $22 million per.
4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (SP) - The shiny new toy. Certain teams will like the depressed price on an unknown commodity. There’s no reason for it, but I have noticed that Japanese players haven’t gotten as much money as proven commodities during my time in the league. This could be a building block for a franchise. Colorado Rockies, 5 years, $22 million per.
5. Josh Hader (CL) - I’m forgoing a lot better free agents to get to a closer with the last spot. Colorado wanted a closer and got Kenley Jansen, so I’m assuming they might be out here. I feel like he goes to a mid-level to playoff team who is willing to invest in a closer trying to make that push into the playoffs. That makes me think of the Milwaukee and Los Angeles Dodgers. Would Milwaukee invest in a former hometown hero? Milwaukee Brewers, 5 years, $12 million per.