2024 mid-FA recap
Jan 11, 2024 11:06:09 GMT -5
Tigers GM (Alex), Astros GM (Max), and 2 more like this
Post by White Sox GM (Michael) on Jan 11, 2024 11:06:09 GMT -5
This is not comprehensive at all, I just slopped it together in an hour, sorry if some shit is wrong but that’s how it goes.
Here’s a mid-FA check-in for some of the signings I’ve liked so far, and some I’ve questioned:
Athletics: Shohei Ohtani – 5 yrs, $47M/yr
All but $2M/yr is deferred til when Paul will age out of the league. I would’ve been shocked for Ohtani to go under $45M, so this makes sense. Hugely dependent on how he comes back as a SP. The A’s really needed an infusion of elite talent to carry an otherwise deep roster. There’s still some work to be done, but I expect the A’s to be able to compete for the AL West crown in 2025.
Padres: Sonny Gray – 5 yrs, $18M/yr; Shane Bieber – 5 yrs, $18M/yr
Gray’s value is fine, Bieber is an overpay. I think Noah should’ve considered allocating this into one star player rather than two decent ones. The roster is still quite good but needs some more high-end SP talent, rather than more mid-rotation depth.
Red Sox: Aaron Nola – 5 yrs, $18M/yr (13.5M/yr with discount)
Sorry to pick on Noah a bit, but this is the exact same contract, which I prefer to Gray (though that’s debatable) and very much prefer to Bieber. Surprised this didn’t get upbid, I think teams are a bit too scared off by the 2023 ERA.
Mariners: Blake Snell – 1 yr, $30M; Merrill Kelly – 4 yrs, $11M/yr ($8.8M/yr with discount)
Kelly is a bit old, but good for a win-now team, and the value is there. Snell has become a bit underrated and I think is a perfect fit for Dave’s one-year crusade for a championship. This team is near the top in the AL right now.
Angels: Juan Soto – 5 yrs, $36M/yr ($28.8M with discount); Max Fried – 5 yrs, $22M/yr ($17.6M/yr with discount)
By default, most heavy HTD deals are good value for the team, and that goes for these. Someone should’ve offered 5/$25M for Max. Fried is a borderline top 10 pitcher and only 30. This was the guy I was frantically looking for a sign-and-trade to get…ultimately, I expected him to stay with LAA, and he got a steal here.
Astros: Brandon Woodruff – 5 yrs, $13.5M/yr
Obviously risky, but I like this gamble. I think you know fairly soon, either he’s done and this is a $6.5M charge for several seasons, or he comes back and if he’s anything close to pre-injury Woodruff, this is excellent.
Phillies: Bryce Harper – 5 yrs, $25M/yr ($18.75M/yr with discount); Cedric Mullins – 5 yrs, $10M/yr
Again, great deal with the discount. I kinda get why people didn’t go much higher here, as Harper is going to be limited to 1B moving forward. Then again, 1B isn’t the position it was in the 2000s and early 2010s. Harper should be an elite bat for years to come. I also think Mullins is great value. CF is hard to find in this league, and Mullins has plenty of upside. Even his “bad” 2023 would be worth $10M a year. I really like what Paz is doing, and seems like more signings are coming.
“Boring” signings where the player went for just about exactly the price I expected:
Gerrit Cole, Brewers – 5 yrs, $30M/yr
Yu Darvish, Twins – 3 yrs, $13M/yr
Justin Verlander, Tigers – 1 yr, $15M
Gleyber Torres, Royals – 5 yrs, $15M/yr ($13.5M/yr with discount)
Where art thou? A few teams that are just not doing enough right now:
Orioles: I see Jeff starting to make a push with his roster, but I do not think he is allocating his $70Mish in cap space well. This was the time to add a pitcher (Yamamoto? Fried? Cole?) and he hasn’t put himself in that position yet. I’d rather slightly overpay for a player than just let the money sit there. His roster is cheap for years to come, so one or two big FA expenditures should be no problem.
Braves: Yuli is in on quite a few players, but I’d like to see some more aggression in his first offseason with all his money available. The reason to deal guys like Luis Castillo, besides the prospect haul, is to be able to sign talent with all the cap space.
I’m not talking about a few teams yet (ahem, Rockies) since there’s a lot of open bids still.
Here’s a mid-FA check-in for some of the signings I’ve liked so far, and some I’ve questioned:
Athletics: Shohei Ohtani – 5 yrs, $47M/yr
All but $2M/yr is deferred til when Paul will age out of the league. I would’ve been shocked for Ohtani to go under $45M, so this makes sense. Hugely dependent on how he comes back as a SP. The A’s really needed an infusion of elite talent to carry an otherwise deep roster. There’s still some work to be done, but I expect the A’s to be able to compete for the AL West crown in 2025.
Padres: Sonny Gray – 5 yrs, $18M/yr; Shane Bieber – 5 yrs, $18M/yr
Gray’s value is fine, Bieber is an overpay. I think Noah should’ve considered allocating this into one star player rather than two decent ones. The roster is still quite good but needs some more high-end SP talent, rather than more mid-rotation depth.
Red Sox: Aaron Nola – 5 yrs, $18M/yr (13.5M/yr with discount)
Sorry to pick on Noah a bit, but this is the exact same contract, which I prefer to Gray (though that’s debatable) and very much prefer to Bieber. Surprised this didn’t get upbid, I think teams are a bit too scared off by the 2023 ERA.
Mariners: Blake Snell – 1 yr, $30M; Merrill Kelly – 4 yrs, $11M/yr ($8.8M/yr with discount)
Kelly is a bit old, but good for a win-now team, and the value is there. Snell has become a bit underrated and I think is a perfect fit for Dave’s one-year crusade for a championship. This team is near the top in the AL right now.
Angels: Juan Soto – 5 yrs, $36M/yr ($28.8M with discount); Max Fried – 5 yrs, $22M/yr ($17.6M/yr with discount)
By default, most heavy HTD deals are good value for the team, and that goes for these. Someone should’ve offered 5/$25M for Max. Fried is a borderline top 10 pitcher and only 30. This was the guy I was frantically looking for a sign-and-trade to get…ultimately, I expected him to stay with LAA, and he got a steal here.
Astros: Brandon Woodruff – 5 yrs, $13.5M/yr
Obviously risky, but I like this gamble. I think you know fairly soon, either he’s done and this is a $6.5M charge for several seasons, or he comes back and if he’s anything close to pre-injury Woodruff, this is excellent.
Phillies: Bryce Harper – 5 yrs, $25M/yr ($18.75M/yr with discount); Cedric Mullins – 5 yrs, $10M/yr
Again, great deal with the discount. I kinda get why people didn’t go much higher here, as Harper is going to be limited to 1B moving forward. Then again, 1B isn’t the position it was in the 2000s and early 2010s. Harper should be an elite bat for years to come. I also think Mullins is great value. CF is hard to find in this league, and Mullins has plenty of upside. Even his “bad” 2023 would be worth $10M a year. I really like what Paz is doing, and seems like more signings are coming.
“Boring” signings where the player went for just about exactly the price I expected:
Gerrit Cole, Brewers – 5 yrs, $30M/yr
Yu Darvish, Twins – 3 yrs, $13M/yr
Justin Verlander, Tigers – 1 yr, $15M
Gleyber Torres, Royals – 5 yrs, $15M/yr ($13.5M/yr with discount)
Where art thou? A few teams that are just not doing enough right now:
Orioles: I see Jeff starting to make a push with his roster, but I do not think he is allocating his $70Mish in cap space well. This was the time to add a pitcher (Yamamoto? Fried? Cole?) and he hasn’t put himself in that position yet. I’d rather slightly overpay for a player than just let the money sit there. His roster is cheap for years to come, so one or two big FA expenditures should be no problem.
Braves: Yuli is in on quite a few players, but I’d like to see some more aggression in his first offseason with all his money available. The reason to deal guys like Luis Castillo, besides the prospect haul, is to be able to sign talent with all the cap space.
I’m not talking about a few teams yet (ahem, Rockies) since there’s a lot of open bids still.
