2024 State of the Divisions
Jan 12, 2024 14:50:26 GMT -5
Astros GM (Max), Jays GM (Sanders), and 3 more like this
Post by White Sox GM (Michael) on Jan 12, 2024 14:50:26 GMT -5
To explain a bit of my methodology, I am defining “competitive window” as when we can expect this team to reasonably compete for a championship. That means they’re expected to make the playoffs going into the season and have enough high-end talent to compete with other top teams. A team can usually make the playoffs a year earlier, especially as a Wild Card, so I am typically projecting rebuilding teams to be decent one year before they’re “competitive”.
For “down on the farm”, I’m taking a cursory look at your prospects and what top picks you have. I’ll let others do a deeper dive into farm systems.
X-factor is a player with a wide range of outcomes that can swing decisions about when the competitive window should open or close.
Ordered in reverse of my projected 2024 standings for the division. Let's start with the NL East.
NL East
Washington Nationals
Status: Rebuilding
Competitive window: Opens in 2027
MLB outlook: There’s plenty of decent players here with hard-to-project outcomes for 2024 (Yoshida, Suzuki, Jones, Wells). It’s hard to rely on any of these players, but a big performance from any of them at the start of 2024 would make them valuable before the trade deadline. Most of the rest of the roster is just mins fodder, but at least we can dream on Liberatore, Winder, and Wesneski becoming viable big league starters.
Down on the farm: There is certainly talent in the minor leagues, but it’s not really as good as what you’d expect for a team that’s been rebuilding so long (you can thank the previous owner there). The big key here is picks: three firsts in 2024, and five firsts in 2025.
X-factor: Lazaro Montes is about as boom-bust as it gets for a prospect, and if he reaches that top prospect status, he should be debuting right around when Washington is ready to compete.
Keys to becoming a World Series contender: Ben is going to have so much damn money in 2025. The allocation of that money is going to define how soon this team becomes competitive. Given the amount of picks here, I’d prioritize buying prospects closer to MLB, plus taking on bad deals in order to pick up prospects/talented scale MLB guys.
Atlanta Braves
Status: Rebuilding
Competitive window: Opens in 2026
MLB outlook: I don’t really quite know what this roster will look like come Opening Day, since Yuli joined recently and seems to be in the process of tearing it down, but maybe not fully. FA is also still ongoing and I’m just too impatient to wait on writing this. Regardless, I think this will be a team that settles in as annoying to play, given there’s quite a few starting MLB players here that I don’t see Yuli trading.
Down on the farm: Plenty of names that can contribute, but a bit of a lack of high-upside talent. I will be honest, I did not like the return for Castillo that Yuli got; either Jacob Wilson or Chase Dollander living up to their draft stock and developing into an above-average regular would go a long way in justifying this one and getting this team back to glory.
X-factor: Spencer Jones. The crown jewel of the Ketel Marte return, I could see Jones being a Judge-lite power hitter in the big leagues, or an AAAA guy who can’t overcome his K issues.
Keys to becoming a World Series contender: I echo what I said about Nationals – cap allocation is key. In Yuli’s case, I’d go for high-upside, both in IFA and in buying players with 2025 $. There’s already plenty of starters on this team, now it’s time to find your cornerstone players.
Miami Marlins
Status: Building a competitor
Competitive window: Opens in 2025
MLB outlook: Miami is a team on the rise, making two important acquisitions this offseason in Randy Arozarena and Ketel Marte. I think he’s also done an underratedly good job building this rotation. Skubal might just be an ace moving forward, and Ober/Manning/Bello all project as quality mid-rotation arms. I think Kev is moving this along at the right pace, not pushing in all his chips at once, but making sure the core of a competitive team is there when he’s ready to go all in.
Down on the farm: This farm is okay, but well-aligned with Kev’s core, as plenty of these players could step into full time roles in the next two seasons. Maybe not a ton of firepower left here for a big trade, but he still has enough picks to make something happen.
X-factor: Trevor Rogers looked like a TOR starter in 2021 before regressing heavily and missing time due to injuries.
Keys to becoming a World Series contender: There’s a lot to like with this rotation, but Kev will need to add an ace, maybe two depending on the development of his young arms. That’s just how most great teams are built in here. Probably also need a big bat at 1B/DH, and the bullpen almost has to be built from scratch, but these are moves that can wait til next offseason.
New York Mets
Status: Competing
Competitive window: Open through 2025
MLB outlook: Jack’s roster building style is confusing at times and annoying always, but I give him credit for putting together another contender. The centerpieces are all elite players in their primes: Judge, Devers, Goldschmidt, Castillo. There’s a lot of young arms to like here, too, led by Gilbert, Lodolo, Harrison, and Meyer. I don’t quite have Jack’s undying faith in some of the fringier bats like Kerry Carpenter who performed well last season.
Down on the farm: After the top prospect callups (happening now? or soon), I don’t really see a lot of talent here, but obviously you prefer your top prospects in the majors rather than the minors. Jack has a first rounder in each of the next two seasons, which I expect will become important trade chips.
X-factor: We know how big of a positional advantage power-hitting catchers can provide, so if Henry Davis hits, that will cover up for deficiencies elsewhere on the diamond.
Keys to becoming a World Series winner: Normally I would wait-and-see with this roster, making upgrades to positions of need in-season. However, I think the race for the NL East will be tight, so it might be best to not give away early-season wins, instead upgrading at least one or two of 2B, SS, and OF between now and Opening Day. I think this year and next are Jack’s best shots. I would advocate for putting all resources into these two years. There should still be plenty of talent here in 2026, but the contracts will make it more and more difficult to upgrade the roster, and might call for a year of putting on the breaks at that point.
Philadelphia Phillies
Status: Competing
Competitive window: Open through 2025
MLB outlook: This is a great roster, still in progress due to free agency. The top of the rotation will be hard to match in Wheeler, Gausman, Glasnow, Eflin, and Springs whenever the hell he gets back. The lineup has multiple studs like Harper, Seager, and Smith, though I worry a bit about depth.
Down on the farm: After trading Jenkins, there’s enough firepower left here to make one or two more big moves. I don’t anticipate too many of these players contributing directly to the current pennant chases, so send their asses elsewhere.
X-factor: Bryce Harper must stay healthy in order to buoy a lineup with otherwise good but not great power.
Keys to becoming a World Series winner: Third base needs an upgrade, and I see Paz is pursuing Arenado in FA. Beyond that, I would focus on depth, maybe with some multi-positional power bats. I would also like to see outfield addressed – I like Mullins and Santander, but the rest of the crew is too shaky here to count on, so I’d get another starting OF. I contemplated saying Paz has an extra year of window beyond Jack, but there’s going to be too many losses to FA between Wheeler, Smith, Springs, and Santander for us to count on that.
For “down on the farm”, I’m taking a cursory look at your prospects and what top picks you have. I’ll let others do a deeper dive into farm systems.
X-factor is a player with a wide range of outcomes that can swing decisions about when the competitive window should open or close.
Ordered in reverse of my projected 2024 standings for the division. Let's start with the NL East.
NL East
Washington Nationals
Status: Rebuilding
Competitive window: Opens in 2027
MLB outlook: There’s plenty of decent players here with hard-to-project outcomes for 2024 (Yoshida, Suzuki, Jones, Wells). It’s hard to rely on any of these players, but a big performance from any of them at the start of 2024 would make them valuable before the trade deadline. Most of the rest of the roster is just mins fodder, but at least we can dream on Liberatore, Winder, and Wesneski becoming viable big league starters.
Down on the farm: There is certainly talent in the minor leagues, but it’s not really as good as what you’d expect for a team that’s been rebuilding so long (you can thank the previous owner there). The big key here is picks: three firsts in 2024, and five firsts in 2025.
X-factor: Lazaro Montes is about as boom-bust as it gets for a prospect, and if he reaches that top prospect status, he should be debuting right around when Washington is ready to compete.
Keys to becoming a World Series contender: Ben is going to have so much damn money in 2025. The allocation of that money is going to define how soon this team becomes competitive. Given the amount of picks here, I’d prioritize buying prospects closer to MLB, plus taking on bad deals in order to pick up prospects/talented scale MLB guys.
Atlanta Braves
Status: Rebuilding
Competitive window: Opens in 2026
MLB outlook: I don’t really quite know what this roster will look like come Opening Day, since Yuli joined recently and seems to be in the process of tearing it down, but maybe not fully. FA is also still ongoing and I’m just too impatient to wait on writing this. Regardless, I think this will be a team that settles in as annoying to play, given there’s quite a few starting MLB players here that I don’t see Yuli trading.
Down on the farm: Plenty of names that can contribute, but a bit of a lack of high-upside talent. I will be honest, I did not like the return for Castillo that Yuli got; either Jacob Wilson or Chase Dollander living up to their draft stock and developing into an above-average regular would go a long way in justifying this one and getting this team back to glory.
X-factor: Spencer Jones. The crown jewel of the Ketel Marte return, I could see Jones being a Judge-lite power hitter in the big leagues, or an AAAA guy who can’t overcome his K issues.
Keys to becoming a World Series contender: I echo what I said about Nationals – cap allocation is key. In Yuli’s case, I’d go for high-upside, both in IFA and in buying players with 2025 $. There’s already plenty of starters on this team, now it’s time to find your cornerstone players.
Miami Marlins
Status: Building a competitor
Competitive window: Opens in 2025
MLB outlook: Miami is a team on the rise, making two important acquisitions this offseason in Randy Arozarena and Ketel Marte. I think he’s also done an underratedly good job building this rotation. Skubal might just be an ace moving forward, and Ober/Manning/Bello all project as quality mid-rotation arms. I think Kev is moving this along at the right pace, not pushing in all his chips at once, but making sure the core of a competitive team is there when he’s ready to go all in.
Down on the farm: This farm is okay, but well-aligned with Kev’s core, as plenty of these players could step into full time roles in the next two seasons. Maybe not a ton of firepower left here for a big trade, but he still has enough picks to make something happen.
X-factor: Trevor Rogers looked like a TOR starter in 2021 before regressing heavily and missing time due to injuries.
Keys to becoming a World Series contender: There’s a lot to like with this rotation, but Kev will need to add an ace, maybe two depending on the development of his young arms. That’s just how most great teams are built in here. Probably also need a big bat at 1B/DH, and the bullpen almost has to be built from scratch, but these are moves that can wait til next offseason.
New York Mets
Status: Competing
Competitive window: Open through 2025
MLB outlook: Jack’s roster building style is confusing at times and annoying always, but I give him credit for putting together another contender. The centerpieces are all elite players in their primes: Judge, Devers, Goldschmidt, Castillo. There’s a lot of young arms to like here, too, led by Gilbert, Lodolo, Harrison, and Meyer. I don’t quite have Jack’s undying faith in some of the fringier bats like Kerry Carpenter who performed well last season.
Down on the farm: After the top prospect callups (happening now? or soon), I don’t really see a lot of talent here, but obviously you prefer your top prospects in the majors rather than the minors. Jack has a first rounder in each of the next two seasons, which I expect will become important trade chips.
X-factor: We know how big of a positional advantage power-hitting catchers can provide, so if Henry Davis hits, that will cover up for deficiencies elsewhere on the diamond.
Keys to becoming a World Series winner: Normally I would wait-and-see with this roster, making upgrades to positions of need in-season. However, I think the race for the NL East will be tight, so it might be best to not give away early-season wins, instead upgrading at least one or two of 2B, SS, and OF between now and Opening Day. I think this year and next are Jack’s best shots. I would advocate for putting all resources into these two years. There should still be plenty of talent here in 2026, but the contracts will make it more and more difficult to upgrade the roster, and might call for a year of putting on the breaks at that point.
Philadelphia Phillies
Status: Competing
Competitive window: Open through 2025
MLB outlook: This is a great roster, still in progress due to free agency. The top of the rotation will be hard to match in Wheeler, Gausman, Glasnow, Eflin, and Springs whenever the hell he gets back. The lineup has multiple studs like Harper, Seager, and Smith, though I worry a bit about depth.
Down on the farm: After trading Jenkins, there’s enough firepower left here to make one or two more big moves. I don’t anticipate too many of these players contributing directly to the current pennant chases, so send their asses elsewhere.
X-factor: Bryce Harper must stay healthy in order to buoy a lineup with otherwise good but not great power.
Keys to becoming a World Series winner: Third base needs an upgrade, and I see Paz is pursuing Arenado in FA. Beyond that, I would focus on depth, maybe with some multi-positional power bats. I would also like to see outfield addressed – I like Mullins and Santander, but the rest of the crew is too shaky here to count on, so I’d get another starting OF. I contemplated saying Paz has an extra year of window beyond Jack, but there’s going to be too many losses to FA between Wheeler, Smith, Springs, and Santander for us to count on that.
