Winter Meetings Organizational Reviews
Dec 1, 2013 22:08:46 GMT -5
White Sox GM (Michael) likes this
Post by Tigers GM (Alex) on Dec 1, 2013 22:08:46 GMT -5
AL EAST:
Boston Red Sox
GM: Jimmy
2013 Record: 79-190-25
Money-
Set to have just $11.6M of player salaries on the books next season, the Red Sox have one of the more enviable long-term cap situations in the league. They have lots of money tied up in obligations, both in 2014 and 2015, but after that it should be smooth sailing. The MLB roster is stocked with cheap, young, cost-controlled talent, which will give the Sox lots of flexibility in the future.
Majors-
Jimmy's MLB roster is relatively bare for now. Devin Mesoraco is a breakout candidate who could hit for power and average. Jean Segura is a solid SS with good speed, although he really struggled in the 2nd half, and it seems as though his early season power was a mirage. Xander Bogaerts is a big-name prospect who will get a chance to play in 2014. There isn't much to see in the OF besides for veteran Alex Gordon, an across-the-board contributor who will look to rebound from a down season.
The starting rotation is led by two aces, Jose Fernandez and Zack Greinke. James Paxton settles in nicely behind them, and after him Zack Wheeler also has ace potential. Innings limits could be a concern for Jimmy in the later months of 2014.
Minors-
With one of the best systems in the league, look for a multitude of all-stars to come out of the BoSox minors in the coming years. A few highlights include power/speed SS Javier Baez, potential ace Jameson Taillon, slugging 3B DJ Peterson, and OF George Springer, who just missed going 40/40 in 2013.
Draft Picks-
The Red Sox have just two picks in the 2014 draft, but they are both first rounders, including their own, which is #5 overall. They have all of their 2015 picks. Jimmy has drafted very well in the past and there's no reason to expect that he won't in the future.
Future Projection-
2014 is likely too early for the Red Sox to make a serious run. The MLB roster is still too shallow/young, and with little cap for FA, it appears that 2015 is when Jimmy will become a serious contender. However, if he decides that he does want to compete next season, he absolutely has the pieces to make some big deals, and go for a playoff run.
Tampa Bay Rays
GM: Forbz
2013 Record: 181-98-15
Money-
The Rays have a good cap situation, and are currently set to have around $35M open for FA. They do not have many obligations, and besides for Martin Prado they have no big contracts on the books after 2015. This will likely change following free agency, as Forbz has been rumored to be looking to make a big signing.
Majors-
Losing Robinson Cano and Max Scherzer left some big holes in the Rays roster that have yet to be filled. The offense looks average, although light on both power and speed. Matt Wieters and Carl Crawford will both need to improve if the Rays want to maintain the high-level offense that they've had in past seasons.
Patrick Corbin leads an uninspiring rotation that lacks both depth and high-quality arms. Resigning Scherzer would go a long way towards alleviating these concerns, although he may be out of the Rays' price range.
Minors-
Tyler Skaggs is the only player of note here. Skaggs struggled mightily in 2013 between the majors and AAA, but is still highly regarded and should turn into a good #2/3 SP. He'll have trouble finding a rotation spot in 2014 and will probably spend most of the season in the minors working out his kinks. Gerardo Concepcion was a big-money IFA signing last season, but has thus far been a disaster in the USA.
Draft Picks-
Nothing to see here. Moving on.
Future Projection-
The Rays fell just short of a 2013 title, but it appears unlikely that they'll reach that far in 2014. The MLB roster was largely purged of talent following the season, and little help is on the way from the minors. Given the weak nature of the AL East, the Rays should still contend for a division title, but I ultimately expect them to fall short.
Toronto Blue Jays
GM: Sanders
2013 Record: 54-218-22
Money-
In a similar situation to the Red Sox, Sanders has amassed little money in player salaries and huge amounts of obligations. Don't expect the Jays to be a player in free agency this year, but they're currently set to have $60M free in 2015, and even more afterwards. Not a single player has a guaranteed contract.
Majors-
Marcell Ozuna could develop into a solid RFer with some power, and Jordan Pacheco is a nice bench player. Beyond them Sanders doesn't have any hitters of note.
Corey Kluber had a solid season for the Indians last year, but doesn't appear to be more than a backend of the rotation starter. Nick Hagadone and Al Albuquerque could both be solid holds relievers going forward.
Minors-
Albert Almora is the shining jewel of the Jays farm system, but he's at least few seasons away from helping the MLB squad. Zach Lee and Hak-Ju Lee could both contribute right away in 2014 if given the chance. Arismendy Alcantara was a nice grab in the Rule-V. All-in-all, Sanders has an above-average system with some nice upside, although it's still a far-cry from the league's top farms.
Draft Picks-
The Jays have no picks in 2014. In 2015 they just have 2 picks, although both are firsts. It will be tough for Sanders to further add to his minors without trading for more picks.
Future Projection-
The Jays won't be competing anytime soon. They have some solid pieces between the minors and majors, but not enough to field a truly competitive team, even with all of their future cap room. The Jays were in the division cellar in 2013, and I expect them to be there again in 2014 and 2015.
Baltimore Orioles
GM: Jeff
2013 Record: 147-130-17
Money-
The Orioles currently have minimal cap room for free agency and a lot of money locked up these next couple of seasons. However, Buster Posey, CJ Wilson, and Jay Bruce are the only players with guaranteed contracts after 2015, which will give Jeff some options. Having Yu Darvish on the rookie scale is a steal, and one of the best contracts in the league.
Majors-
The Orioles look primed to compete in 2014 and beyond. Buster Posey, Jay Bruce, and Carlos Quentin give the offense some firepower, and Ben Revere and Jose Altuve give it some speed. If Brandon Belt can continue his 2nd half surge into the 2014 season, watch out, this could be the best offense in the AL.
Yu Darvish is the ace of a good rotation. CJ Wilson and Wandy Rodriguez are both solid veterans who will help to carry the staff, and AJ Griffin, Travis Wood, Wily Peralta, and Brett Oberholtzer are all young and improving. The bullpen is weak, with no true closer or good holds relievers.
Minors-
The Orioles have a very weak farm system. Corey Dickerson showed some promise these last couple seasons, but scouts have never liked him, and he may be a tweener type. Kendry Flores looked good in A-ball last year, but he's getting older and needs to show the same success further in the minors if he wants to be considered a top prospect.
Draft Picks-
Jeff has no picks in 2014, and just one in 2015, Twins 1st. If he chooses to keep it, the pick could add a much-needed top prospect to the Orioles farm.
Future Projection-
I expect the Orioles to win the AL East in 2014, and to make a run at the AL pennant. Things will get tougher in future seasons as the division improves, but Jeff has set himself up for a nice window of contention, and should be relevant for at least a few seasons.
New York Yankees
GM: Dylan
2013 Record: 148-125-21
Money-
The Yankees do not have an enviable cap situation. They have a little money for free agency this offseason, but not for any major signings. They have several players on ugly long-term contracts (Nick Swisher, Torii Hunter, Papelbon, O'Flaherty), and won't have major cap room available for the next few offseasons.
Majors-
There is some talent here, although not enough to compete. The aforementioned Nick Swisher and Torii Hunter can both still hit, but beyond them there isn't much to see. Ruben Tejada looks on the outs with the Mets, and Chris Iannetta is nothing special.
The rotation consists of Joe Blanton, JA Happ, Felipe Paulino... let's just stop there. At least the Yanks have a good closer and some decent holds relievers.
Minors-
Dylan has just started rebuilding his minors. Alen Hanson is his top prospect, and looks like he'll be a good SS in the majors. Tyrell Jenkins was highly regarded coming out of high school but has struggled thus far and needs to rebound next season. Christian Villanueva played well in AA last season, and could make it as a power-hitting 3B if he gains some weight.
Draft Picks-
The Yankees have just 1 4th in 2014, and a variety of picks in 2015, although no 1st rounders. Drafting well will be key if Dylan wants to get the Yankees back on track.
Future Projection-
What a fall for our 2012 champions. Since winning the league championship the Yanks have steadily declined, and are now in full-on rebuild mode. They won't compete in 2014 or 2015, but after that who knows. Things happen quickly in this league, and there is some talent to work with here.
AL CENTRAL:
Chicago White Sox
GM: Mike
2013 Record: 194-81-19
Money-
The White Sox won't be big players in free agency this offseason, and they currently sit slightly over the cap. Mike has a few troublesome longterm contracts (CC Sabathia, Shane Victorino, Ian Kinsler), but besides for them his roster is filled with bargains like Chris Sale, Gio Gonzalez, and Edwin Encarnacion. He's currently on track to have about $30M free in 2015. Star slugger Giancarlo Stanton has just 2 seasons of team control remaining, and a big payday could be in his near future.
Majors-
The White Sox offense looks mostly set to begin the season. Jason Castro will look to build on his breakout 2013 with further improvement. Stanton, Encarnacion, and Joey Bats give this lineup a lot of firepower, although it is light on speed. Just two players stole over 20 bases last season (Coco Crisp and Victorino, with 21 each) and both will likely slow down even further as they age. The White Sox currently lack a starting 3B, and based on initial indications, the market is quite shallow. They're also weak at SS, with just Yunel Escobar. A lack of depth could cause problems as the season progresses, as many of Mike's starting hitters have been injury prone in the past.
The starting rotation is where the White Sox shine. Chris Sale has become a legitimate ace, and Gio Gonzalez and Mike Minor are also borderline aces. CC Sabathia and Roy Halladay bring some veteran savvy, and are strong bounce-back candidates in 2014. Rounding out the staff are two pitchers who quietly put up great seasons in 2013. Homer Bailey (3.31 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, 8.6 K/9) finally lived up to his lofty draft spot. Chris Tillman had a rough first few seasons in Baltimore but since the start of the 2012 he has a 3.48 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and 7.5 K/9. The bullpen, led by strikeout artist Kenley Jansen is also strong.
Minors-
While not the worst minors in the league, the White Sox certainly don't have anything to brag about. Jason Hursh has a great fastball and should move quickly through the system, although he likely isn't more than a mid-to-back of the rotation starter. LHP Matt Purke and 1B Ryon Healy could also make an impact in the majors in the next couple of seasons, although neither has been particularly impressive in the lower minors thus far.
Draft Picks-
Mike has no 2014 picks, and all of his 2015 picks, minus his 2nd. He hasn't been an avid drafter in the past and is likely to move most of his picks (for a 3B/SS maybe?).
Future Projection-
The White Sox enter free agency as the favorite for the 2014 AL Pennant. If they can patch up the holes in their lineup and add some depth they will easily contend for a championship. While Mike will need to manage his cap smartly in coming seasons, there's no reason that the White Sox shouldn't be a top team for the foreseeable future.
Cleveland Indians
GM: Zack
2013 Record: 149-123-22
Money-
With nearly $70M free, expect the Indians to make a big splash in free agency. They've been rumored to be looking at everyone from Brian McCann to Jose Abreu to Clayton Kershaw. Zack will need to be smart about where he commits his big money. At the moment, the Indians have 4 longterm contracts. Adam Jones and Evan Longoria are both relative bargains, but Stephen Drew and Edwin Jackson are both overpaid.
Majors-
The Indians have a weak infield besides for 3B/SS. Alex Avila, Darwin Barney, and Logan Morrison won't cut it as starters if Zack plans to seriously contend in 2014. The outfield is also less than impressive besides for Adam Jones. It's fine to have one or two weak spots in a lineup, but the Indians currently have 6, which is way too many, even if the other 3 hitters are all-stars.
Francisco Liriano and Ervin Santana both looked fantastic last season, but Liriano is the most volatile pitcher in the league, and Santana just had a career year at age 30 in a contract year. If they can keep up their high levels of performance next season, it will be huge for the Indians. Zack will likely try to add an ace or two in free agency, which would hugely bolster his rotation. The bullpen is mediocre.
Minors-
One of the shallower farms in the league, the Indians have a couple prospects of note. Dominic Smith looked great in his debut, showing advanced plate discipline for a teenager. If he can develop his power he could be Joey Votto 2.0. Blake Swihart is an athletic catcher who could hit for a good batting average and decent power. He may be too small to stick behind the plate, and could probably move to 2B if necessary.
Draft Picks-
The Indians have their 5th rounder in 2014, and their 3rd-5th rounders in 2015. Like Mike, Zack has never been big on drafting in the past, but if he chooses to do so, he could provide a nice boost to his farm with these picks.
Future Projection-
It's really tough to say where this team is headed, as a lot will change following free agency. If Zack plays his hand perfectly, the Indians could enter the season as the AL Central favorite. I think the Indians will earn a wildcard in 2014, and could make a World Series run if they get hot at the right time. They should contend for the next 2-3 years at least, and potentially longer.
Kansas City Royals
GM: Brandon
2013 Record: 102-165-27
Money-
The Royals have about $30M free at the moment, although don't expect them to go for any big names in free agency. This is a team still in a rebuild. Kendrys Morales and Phil Hughes have ugly longterm contracts, but besides for them the Royals have no guaranteed contracts beyond this season. Starling Marte is a cheap stud, with 4 years of team control remaining. Nick Franklin could also be a bargain if he earns a full-time starting job in 2014.
Majors-
Derek Norris flashed his plus power last season, hitting 9 homers and 16 doubles in just 264 ABs. If only he could hit righties (career .173 average), he'd be a star. He may be destined for a platoon at this point. Jordy Mercer looked promising in the 2nd half of 2013, and will get a shot to prove it wasn't a fluke next year. He could provide decent power/speed numbers at SS. Rounding out the OF is Grady Sizemore, who hasn't played since 2011. But ya never know!
Alex Wood and Tyler Thornburg both looked good in limited starts last season, and could emerge as full-time starters next year. Paco Rodriguez arrived in the majors as a shutdown holds reliever, and Joakim Soria may get a chance to close again in 2014.
Minors-
What the Royals lack in top prospects they make up for in depth. Andrew Heaney had a great season in A+ ball, and held his own after moving to AA late in-season. He could reach the majors within the year. Tyler Glasnow looked phenomenal last season, with over 13 K/9, and a 2.18 ERA. Jorge Polanco and Dilson Herrera could both be impact players in the middle infield, and the Dodgers system is brimming with athletic OF prospects. One of them, Lewis Brinson went 20/20 as a 19 year old in A ball. He'll need to cut down on the strikeouts, but no doubt is a very exciting prospect.
Draft Picks-
The Royals have a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in 2014 and all of their 2015 picks. Brandon will have an opportunity to show off his drafting skills and add some more talent to his farm.
Future Projection-
While they aren't there yet, the Royals definitely have a plan in place and it seems to be working. They should be respectable by 2015, and could conceivably compete by 2016. The future is bright.
Minnesota Twins
GM: Brent
2013 Record: 129-150-15
Money-
It seems that the Twins always have a good amount of cap room. At the moment they have slightly over $25M for free agency. How Brent will use it remains to be seen. Hunter Pence and Andre Ethier both carry hefty contracts, but Ethier's is mostly paid for making it more bearable. The Twins have a lot of cheap, controllable players which will help to keep them cheap.
Majors-
Andrelton Simmons looked great in his first full season, showing both plus power for a SS and stellar defense. His defense will keep him playing for a long time, but he'll need to up his batting average if he wants to be a top fantasy SS. Hunter Pence is far and away Brent's best hitter, and had a nice rebound season in 2013, contributing across the board. The Twins have several big holes in their lineup, which could be filled in free agency.
James Shields and Jon Lester lead a deep but overall mediocre starting rotation. Brent has gone quantity over quality with his pitchers, and despite having 16 SPs on his roster, only Shields, Lester, John Lackey, and Scott Feldman appear to be legitimate options next season. The Twins bullpen took a hit losing LaTroy Hawkins and Jamey Wright to free agency.
Minors-
Carlos Correa leads an impressive pack of prospects. He played the entire season as an 18 year old in A ball, and amazingly might have been the best player in the league. The A-Rod/Machado comparisons are easy to see. Correa is a big, athletic SS who should hit for a high average with good power once he fully develops. His speed may disappear as he gets bigger, but Correa definitely deserves consideration as the top prospect in baseball. The Twins system has everything, from catchers, to infielders, to outfielders, to a ridiculous amount of starting pitchers.
Draft Picks-
The Twins have 7 picks in 2014, 5 in the first 3 rounds. In 2015 they have all of their picks except for their first. If Brent is serious about competing in 2014 he would be wise to trade some of his picks to upgrade his MLB squad. The farm is deep enough as is.
Future Projection-
They've had a rough past few seasons but things are finally heading up for the Twins. Brent has amassed a lot of talent between his minors and MLB club, and should be a competitor pretty soon. I don't think 2014 will be that year for the Twins, but they may surprise.
AL WEST:
Oakland Athletics
GM: Russi
2013 Record: 177-104-13
Money-
The A's are set to open free agency with slightly under $5M available, so don't expect them to be making any major signings. Russi has done a good job avoiding crippling contracts, and his only guaranteed players beyond 2015 are Jason Vargas and Jeremy Guthrie. The A's will be losing 3 starters (JJ Hardy, Dexter Fowler, Mat Latos) after the 2014 season, but Russi will have a projected $40M available, so he may be able to retain them.
Majors-
Big bats are the A's main calling card, and they had 5 players swat at least 20 homers last season. Chris Carter will need to improve his plate discipline if he wants to keep a starting job, but he has some of the best raw power in the majors. Yoenis Cespedes will look to rebound from a "down" season where he saw his batting average plummet over 50 points from his rookie season, and his OPS over 120 points. The outfield is where most of the offense's speed comes from, with Norichika Aoki and Dexter Fowler.
Hisashi Iwakuma has been amazing since moving to the rotation in mid-2012, and will lead the A's pitching staff next season. He actually improved as the season went on, posting a 2.14 ERA post ASB, and allowing just 3 earned runs over his final 5 starts. Mat Latos is a workhorse #2, as solid as they come. Beyond them, the staff is somewhat weak. Jason Vargas is an innings-eater but not much more. Lance Lynn is maddeningly inconsistent, and may move to the bullpen in 2014. Wade Miley posted a solid sophomore season on the surface, but his underlying numbers showed a good amount of regression. The bullpen is relatively weak.
Minors-
Russi's minors are very, very weak and consist of just 3 prospects. Mike Freeman, a 26 year old MI, had an OPS of just .643 in AA last season, although he showed nice speed, swiping 29 bags. Erling Moreno was rated by Baseball America as the #16 IFA prospect, but he's a longgg way away and it's too early to tell what he'll turn into. Guillermo Pimentel, an outfield prospect with nice pop and some speed is the most interesting of the group. He should reach AA next season which will be a big step for him.
Draft Picks-
The A's have no picks in 2014, and just a 6th and 7th in 2015. Guess the farm won't be improving anytime soon.
Future Projection-
The runaway favorite for the AL West crown in 2014, the A's are poised to compete for the next 3-5 years if Russi chooses to do so. The pitching will need some help if Mat Latos walks, but most of Russi's hitters are locked up for a few years at least, which will keep the A's competitive.
Texas Rangers
GM: Bill
2013 Record: 142-120-32
Money-
Bill has set himself up with about $20M for free agency, and could have up to $70M free for 2015. The only bad contract on his books is Shaun Marcum, who will make $5.8M a season through 2015. Carlos Gomez is a steal, making just $9M total through 2016.
Majors-
The Rangers have some big holes to fill in their lineup. Losing Chris Davis to free agency was tough, and SS is also an unfilled position. The outfield is quite weak beyond Gomez, with Josh Willingham and Will Venable currently set to open the season in the corner spots.
Derek Holland and Jorge de la Rosa anchor a below-average pitching staff, and beyond them there isn't much to get excited about. Alexi Ogando has looked great as a starter but it doesn't seem like he can handle the physicality of the role, and looks destined for a bullpen role going forward. Brandon McCarthy, Shaun Marcum, and Carlos Carrasco round out the rotation, and all will look to bounce back from disappointing 2013 seasons.
Minors-
While not the most exciting system in the league, the Rangers do have some good prospects. Pierce Johnson, AJ Cole, and JR Graham could all be #2/3 starters in the majors pretty soon, and Wilmer Font should be a bullpen mainstay from 2014 onwards. Luis Sardinas and Jose Peraza are both exciting, speedy middle infielders, and Nolan Fontana also shows promise. Leading the outfield spects is Rymer Liriano. A former top prospect, Liriano missed all of 2013 after undergoing TJ surgery, but he'll be back for 2014 and could be a fine leadoff hitter in a season or two.
Draft Picks-
Bill has his full set of 2014 picks + a 4th and in 2015 has 2 1sts and all of his other picks minus his 2nd. He'll look to add some more high-upside spects to his farm.
Future Projection-
The Rangers MLB club has taken a step back, and is no longer a serious contender for the West division title. If Bill chooses to do so he could compete for a wildcard spot, but he may be best off waiting until 2015 when some of his top prospects will be up and he'll have big cash to burn in FA.
Seattle Mariners
Majors-
This is a very average team. Yasiel Puig is a star, but he won't be able to carry the offense on his own. Adam Lind and Lucas Duda are power bats at 1B, and Jedd Gyorko had a strong rookie season, blasting 23 homers. If Billy Hamilton can get 500 ABs he'll likely steal 70+ bases, and could single-handedly win that category for JT every week.
There's a lot of young power arms to get excited about in the Pirates rotation. Taijuan Walker, Tony Cingrani, Michael Wacha, and Danny Salazar are all future all-stars with big strikeout potential. RA Dickey and Ian Kennedy are the veterans who will anchor JTs staff. Both had down 2013 seasons but are nice rebound candidates going forward. Trevor Rosenthal and Carlos Martinez are intriguing bullpen arms. Bobby Parnell looked great in the closer role last season, but the Mets haven't wanted to commit to him for future seasons.
Minors-
The farm has been somewhat thinned out by graduations but is still one of the best in the league. Jonathan Singleton struggled in 2013 but is still a good prospect and should contribute in the majors this season. Addison Russell is a slugging SS who's already one of the top prospects in the baseball. Oscar Taveras scuffled with injury issues last year and will look to get back on track in 2014, potentially starting the year in the Cardinals outfield. Robert Stephenson and Eddie Butler are JT's top pitching prospects but there are many other guys to also get excited about.
Draft Picks-
JT has 8 picks in the 2014 draft, and 7 of them are first rounders. He'll look to add even more high upside spects to his already strong farm. In 2015 he has his 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th round picks.
Future Projection-
The Pirates will look to compete in 2014 and will fight for a wildcard spot. If JT gets breakout seasons from young players like Billy Hamilton and Nolan Arenado he could sneak into the playoffs. If not, the Pirates will need to wait until 2015. The rotation has the potential to be great as soon as this season and will be the Pirates calling card in future seasons.
Houston Astros
GM: Max
2013 Record: 44-220-30
Money-
Max has about $23M free for pitching, and he'll need to spend it smartly with only 2 spots filled between his rotation and bullpen. Brian McCann, Chase Headley, and Prince Fielder all have ugly longterm contracts, but only Prince's is truly cap-killing ($34M through 2016).
Majors-
There's a lot of talent here but also a lot of work left to do. Between McCann, Fielder, and Justin Upton the offense has a lot of firepower, but it is really lacking in speed. Junior Lake had a nice rookie season posting a .284 average with 6 homers and 4 steals in 230 at bats. He's Max's only non-veteran starter. A hole remains at 2B and it's unclear how Max plans to fill it.
Jake Peavy and Doug Fister are the only pitchers currently on the Astros roster. Both are solid mid-rotation pitchers and can successfully eat plenty of innings. Peavy is 5 years removed from his last true "ace" season in 2008 when he posted a 2.85 ERA. Since then he's had a 4.00 ERA. Max will need to fill the rest of his rotation through free agency. Adding an ace (Scherzer? Tanaka?) would be huge but it's unclear if Max will be able to work out the finances.
Minors-
Mark Appel and Julio Urias are the only two prospects to get very excited about. Appel was the #1 pick in the 2013 draft and had a solid debut between low-A and A ball posting a 3.79 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He projects as a future #2/3 starter. Max also owns the rights to Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson. Wilson was a 4th round pick in 2010 and over 315 at-bats posted a .710 OPS with 22 extra base hits and 19 steals. Solid numbers for a 2B, should Wilson ever decide to return to baseball.
Draft Picks-
Max owns a 3rd and 4th in 2014 and has no picks in 2015.
Future Projection-
It looks like the Astros will try to contend in 2014. How successful they'll be will largely hinge upon how Max fills out his pitching rotation. The offense is solid but can't carry the team. I currently don't see how Houston fits into the postseason picture, but there's a lot of offseason left. Max doesn't have a large window of contention with so many of his players aging, so he'll want to maximize his current chances.
Milwaukee Brewers
GM: Mike
2013 Record: 161-115-18
Money-
The Brewers have $12M remaining in cap room. Beyond 2015 the only guaranteed contracts are Joel Hanrahan ($4.2M) and Michael Morse ($6.3M). Paz will have about $30M free for the 2015 offseason and $80M+ free after that. Some big free agent signings could be in the Brewers future.
Majors-
Gaby Sanchez got his career off with a bang, nearly winning ROY in 2010 and making the All-Star team in 2011. Since then, he's fallen off a cliff, hitting just .234 with a .689 OPS between 2012 and 2013. Michael Morse struggled last year but was a stud in the 3 seasons before that, and he'll look to rebound in 2014. Jordan Schafer has become a stolen base artist, averaging 41 per 162 games the past 3 seasons. Unfortunately he doesn't contribute much more than that.
Tyson Ross looked strong as a starter last year with a 3.06 ERA and 9.3 K/9. Henderson Alvarez showed lots of improvement with a 3.18 FIP in 2013, but he doesn't strike anyone out and is best suited for a backend of the rotation starter role. Paz doesn't have much else in the rotation though. Jeremy Hefner will miss most/all of 2014 recovering from TJ surgery, and Franklin Morales is really a RP. There's not much to see in the bullpen.
Minors-
Francisco Lindor is the best of an average farm system. He projects as a future star at SS, but he'll be more valuable in real life than in fantasy. Ryan McMahon had a strong debut in rookie ball last year, blasting 32 extra base hits in just over 200 ABs. Nomar Mazara has massive raw power, but has yet to transfer it to game action. He was aggressively placed in A-ball as an 18 year old last year and held his own, with a .692 OPS and solid plate discipline.
Draft Picks-
Mike has stocked up on picks for 2014, with 15 in the first 2 rounds. He'll look to get his rebuilding project underway by adding some more top talent to his farm. He also has 3 1sts and 2 2nds in 2015.
Future Projection-
The Brewers are a long way off from truly competing. They play in the strong NL Central and are just starting to rebuild. I'd say they could be average by 2016, and competitive by 2017. To reach those goals will require strong leadership from Paz.
Cincinnati Reds
GM: Rich
2013 Record: 95-179-20
Money-
The Reds have just under $3M left to spend on pitching and IFAs. Dan Uggla and Michael Bourn both have really ugly contracts. Bourn will make between $12-14M through 2017, and Uggla will make $4M this year and $10M next, when he may not even remain a starter. Jacob Turner and Wilson Ramos have the 2 most attractive contracts on the Reds, both are on the scale.
Majors-
This is a solid-average team. James Loney looked good in 2013 (.299 batting average, 75 RBIs) but fell off in the 2nd half and is a below average starter at 1B. Howie Kendrick is a top-10 2B but he can't seem to avoid the injury bug. Chris Johnson became a batting champion last year seemingly out of nowhere, and will be hard-pressed to continue his success in the future. Michael Bourn lost most of his speed last year. He stole just 23 bases, a career low since becoming a full-time starter. He was also successful on just 65% of his attempts, also a career low.
Kyle Lohse is the ace of a mediocre pitching staff. Corey Kluber had a strong season last year, posting a 3.85 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with good strikeout numbers. Miguel Gonzalez and Jacob Turner posted similar numbers. Andrew Bailey is the most notable player in a shallow bullpen, which Rich will need to fill out in free agency.
Minors-
The minor league system in Cincy is deep but weak, with no real stars. Deck McGuire was a former top prospect but has now pitched in AA for 3 seasons showing little improvement, and his prospect status is in jeopardy. Casey Crosby could pitch in Detroit's rotation next year but has struggled in AAA the past 2 years. Adrian Marin has some potential as a SS with decent power/speed.
Draft Picks-
The Reds have no draft picks in 2014 or 2015.
Future Projection-
Rich has made it his goal to be competitive, and while I don't see him reaching the playoffs he'll certainly be better than last year. If he can get some breakout/comeback seasons his team could sneak into a wildcard spot. Don't underestimate the Reds next year.
NL WEST: Coming Thursday
Boston Red Sox
GM: Jimmy
2013 Record: 79-190-25
Money-
Set to have just $11.6M of player salaries on the books next season, the Red Sox have one of the more enviable long-term cap situations in the league. They have lots of money tied up in obligations, both in 2014 and 2015, but after that it should be smooth sailing. The MLB roster is stocked with cheap, young, cost-controlled talent, which will give the Sox lots of flexibility in the future.
Majors-
Jimmy's MLB roster is relatively bare for now. Devin Mesoraco is a breakout candidate who could hit for power and average. Jean Segura is a solid SS with good speed, although he really struggled in the 2nd half, and it seems as though his early season power was a mirage. Xander Bogaerts is a big-name prospect who will get a chance to play in 2014. There isn't much to see in the OF besides for veteran Alex Gordon, an across-the-board contributor who will look to rebound from a down season.
The starting rotation is led by two aces, Jose Fernandez and Zack Greinke. James Paxton settles in nicely behind them, and after him Zack Wheeler also has ace potential. Innings limits could be a concern for Jimmy in the later months of 2014.
Minors-
With one of the best systems in the league, look for a multitude of all-stars to come out of the BoSox minors in the coming years. A few highlights include power/speed SS Javier Baez, potential ace Jameson Taillon, slugging 3B DJ Peterson, and OF George Springer, who just missed going 40/40 in 2013.
Draft Picks-
The Red Sox have just two picks in the 2014 draft, but they are both first rounders, including their own, which is #5 overall. They have all of their 2015 picks. Jimmy has drafted very well in the past and there's no reason to expect that he won't in the future.
Future Projection-
2014 is likely too early for the Red Sox to make a serious run. The MLB roster is still too shallow/young, and with little cap for FA, it appears that 2015 is when Jimmy will become a serious contender. However, if he decides that he does want to compete next season, he absolutely has the pieces to make some big deals, and go for a playoff run.
Tampa Bay Rays
GM: Forbz
2013 Record: 181-98-15
Money-
The Rays have a good cap situation, and are currently set to have around $35M open for FA. They do not have many obligations, and besides for Martin Prado they have no big contracts on the books after 2015. This will likely change following free agency, as Forbz has been rumored to be looking to make a big signing.
Majors-
Losing Robinson Cano and Max Scherzer left some big holes in the Rays roster that have yet to be filled. The offense looks average, although light on both power and speed. Matt Wieters and Carl Crawford will both need to improve if the Rays want to maintain the high-level offense that they've had in past seasons.
Patrick Corbin leads an uninspiring rotation that lacks both depth and high-quality arms. Resigning Scherzer would go a long way towards alleviating these concerns, although he may be out of the Rays' price range.
Minors-
Tyler Skaggs is the only player of note here. Skaggs struggled mightily in 2013 between the majors and AAA, but is still highly regarded and should turn into a good #2/3 SP. He'll have trouble finding a rotation spot in 2014 and will probably spend most of the season in the minors working out his kinks. Gerardo Concepcion was a big-money IFA signing last season, but has thus far been a disaster in the USA.
Draft Picks-
Nothing to see here. Moving on.
Future Projection-
The Rays fell just short of a 2013 title, but it appears unlikely that they'll reach that far in 2014. The MLB roster was largely purged of talent following the season, and little help is on the way from the minors. Given the weak nature of the AL East, the Rays should still contend for a division title, but I ultimately expect them to fall short.
Toronto Blue Jays
GM: Sanders
2013 Record: 54-218-22
Money-
In a similar situation to the Red Sox, Sanders has amassed little money in player salaries and huge amounts of obligations. Don't expect the Jays to be a player in free agency this year, but they're currently set to have $60M free in 2015, and even more afterwards. Not a single player has a guaranteed contract.
Majors-
Marcell Ozuna could develop into a solid RFer with some power, and Jordan Pacheco is a nice bench player. Beyond them Sanders doesn't have any hitters of note.
Corey Kluber had a solid season for the Indians last year, but doesn't appear to be more than a backend of the rotation starter. Nick Hagadone and Al Albuquerque could both be solid holds relievers going forward.
Minors-
Albert Almora is the shining jewel of the Jays farm system, but he's at least few seasons away from helping the MLB squad. Zach Lee and Hak-Ju Lee could both contribute right away in 2014 if given the chance. Arismendy Alcantara was a nice grab in the Rule-V. All-in-all, Sanders has an above-average system with some nice upside, although it's still a far-cry from the league's top farms.
Draft Picks-
The Jays have no picks in 2014. In 2015 they just have 2 picks, although both are firsts. It will be tough for Sanders to further add to his minors without trading for more picks.
Future Projection-
The Jays won't be competing anytime soon. They have some solid pieces between the minors and majors, but not enough to field a truly competitive team, even with all of their future cap room. The Jays were in the division cellar in 2013, and I expect them to be there again in 2014 and 2015.
Baltimore Orioles
GM: Jeff
2013 Record: 147-130-17
Money-
The Orioles currently have minimal cap room for free agency and a lot of money locked up these next couple of seasons. However, Buster Posey, CJ Wilson, and Jay Bruce are the only players with guaranteed contracts after 2015, which will give Jeff some options. Having Yu Darvish on the rookie scale is a steal, and one of the best contracts in the league.
Majors-
The Orioles look primed to compete in 2014 and beyond. Buster Posey, Jay Bruce, and Carlos Quentin give the offense some firepower, and Ben Revere and Jose Altuve give it some speed. If Brandon Belt can continue his 2nd half surge into the 2014 season, watch out, this could be the best offense in the AL.
Yu Darvish is the ace of a good rotation. CJ Wilson and Wandy Rodriguez are both solid veterans who will help to carry the staff, and AJ Griffin, Travis Wood, Wily Peralta, and Brett Oberholtzer are all young and improving. The bullpen is weak, with no true closer or good holds relievers.
Minors-
The Orioles have a very weak farm system. Corey Dickerson showed some promise these last couple seasons, but scouts have never liked him, and he may be a tweener type. Kendry Flores looked good in A-ball last year, but he's getting older and needs to show the same success further in the minors if he wants to be considered a top prospect.
Draft Picks-
Jeff has no picks in 2014, and just one in 2015, Twins 1st. If he chooses to keep it, the pick could add a much-needed top prospect to the Orioles farm.
Future Projection-
I expect the Orioles to win the AL East in 2014, and to make a run at the AL pennant. Things will get tougher in future seasons as the division improves, but Jeff has set himself up for a nice window of contention, and should be relevant for at least a few seasons.
New York Yankees
GM: Dylan
2013 Record: 148-125-21
Money-
The Yankees do not have an enviable cap situation. They have a little money for free agency this offseason, but not for any major signings. They have several players on ugly long-term contracts (Nick Swisher, Torii Hunter, Papelbon, O'Flaherty), and won't have major cap room available for the next few offseasons.
Majors-
There is some talent here, although not enough to compete. The aforementioned Nick Swisher and Torii Hunter can both still hit, but beyond them there isn't much to see. Ruben Tejada looks on the outs with the Mets, and Chris Iannetta is nothing special.
The rotation consists of Joe Blanton, JA Happ, Felipe Paulino... let's just stop there. At least the Yanks have a good closer and some decent holds relievers.
Minors-
Dylan has just started rebuilding his minors. Alen Hanson is his top prospect, and looks like he'll be a good SS in the majors. Tyrell Jenkins was highly regarded coming out of high school but has struggled thus far and needs to rebound next season. Christian Villanueva played well in AA last season, and could make it as a power-hitting 3B if he gains some weight.
Draft Picks-
The Yankees have just 1 4th in 2014, and a variety of picks in 2015, although no 1st rounders. Drafting well will be key if Dylan wants to get the Yankees back on track.
Future Projection-
What a fall for our 2012 champions. Since winning the league championship the Yanks have steadily declined, and are now in full-on rebuild mode. They won't compete in 2014 or 2015, but after that who knows. Things happen quickly in this league, and there is some talent to work with here.
AL CENTRAL:
Chicago White Sox
GM: Mike
2013 Record: 194-81-19
Money-
The White Sox won't be big players in free agency this offseason, and they currently sit slightly over the cap. Mike has a few troublesome longterm contracts (CC Sabathia, Shane Victorino, Ian Kinsler), but besides for them his roster is filled with bargains like Chris Sale, Gio Gonzalez, and Edwin Encarnacion. He's currently on track to have about $30M free in 2015. Star slugger Giancarlo Stanton has just 2 seasons of team control remaining, and a big payday could be in his near future.
Majors-
The White Sox offense looks mostly set to begin the season. Jason Castro will look to build on his breakout 2013 with further improvement. Stanton, Encarnacion, and Joey Bats give this lineup a lot of firepower, although it is light on speed. Just two players stole over 20 bases last season (Coco Crisp and Victorino, with 21 each) and both will likely slow down even further as they age. The White Sox currently lack a starting 3B, and based on initial indications, the market is quite shallow. They're also weak at SS, with just Yunel Escobar. A lack of depth could cause problems as the season progresses, as many of Mike's starting hitters have been injury prone in the past.
The starting rotation is where the White Sox shine. Chris Sale has become a legitimate ace, and Gio Gonzalez and Mike Minor are also borderline aces. CC Sabathia and Roy Halladay bring some veteran savvy, and are strong bounce-back candidates in 2014. Rounding out the staff are two pitchers who quietly put up great seasons in 2013. Homer Bailey (3.31 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, 8.6 K/9) finally lived up to his lofty draft spot. Chris Tillman had a rough first few seasons in Baltimore but since the start of the 2012 he has a 3.48 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and 7.5 K/9. The bullpen, led by strikeout artist Kenley Jansen is also strong.
Minors-
While not the worst minors in the league, the White Sox certainly don't have anything to brag about. Jason Hursh has a great fastball and should move quickly through the system, although he likely isn't more than a mid-to-back of the rotation starter. LHP Matt Purke and 1B Ryon Healy could also make an impact in the majors in the next couple of seasons, although neither has been particularly impressive in the lower minors thus far.
Draft Picks-
Mike has no 2014 picks, and all of his 2015 picks, minus his 2nd. He hasn't been an avid drafter in the past and is likely to move most of his picks (for a 3B/SS maybe?).
Future Projection-
The White Sox enter free agency as the favorite for the 2014 AL Pennant. If they can patch up the holes in their lineup and add some depth they will easily contend for a championship. While Mike will need to manage his cap smartly in coming seasons, there's no reason that the White Sox shouldn't be a top team for the foreseeable future.
Cleveland Indians
GM: Zack
2013 Record: 149-123-22
Money-
With nearly $70M free, expect the Indians to make a big splash in free agency. They've been rumored to be looking at everyone from Brian McCann to Jose Abreu to Clayton Kershaw. Zack will need to be smart about where he commits his big money. At the moment, the Indians have 4 longterm contracts. Adam Jones and Evan Longoria are both relative bargains, but Stephen Drew and Edwin Jackson are both overpaid.
Majors-
The Indians have a weak infield besides for 3B/SS. Alex Avila, Darwin Barney, and Logan Morrison won't cut it as starters if Zack plans to seriously contend in 2014. The outfield is also less than impressive besides for Adam Jones. It's fine to have one or two weak spots in a lineup, but the Indians currently have 6, which is way too many, even if the other 3 hitters are all-stars.
Francisco Liriano and Ervin Santana both looked fantastic last season, but Liriano is the most volatile pitcher in the league, and Santana just had a career year at age 30 in a contract year. If they can keep up their high levels of performance next season, it will be huge for the Indians. Zack will likely try to add an ace or two in free agency, which would hugely bolster his rotation. The bullpen is mediocre.
Minors-
One of the shallower farms in the league, the Indians have a couple prospects of note. Dominic Smith looked great in his debut, showing advanced plate discipline for a teenager. If he can develop his power he could be Joey Votto 2.0. Blake Swihart is an athletic catcher who could hit for a good batting average and decent power. He may be too small to stick behind the plate, and could probably move to 2B if necessary.
Draft Picks-
The Indians have their 5th rounder in 2014, and their 3rd-5th rounders in 2015. Like Mike, Zack has never been big on drafting in the past, but if he chooses to do so, he could provide a nice boost to his farm with these picks.
Future Projection-
It's really tough to say where this team is headed, as a lot will change following free agency. If Zack plays his hand perfectly, the Indians could enter the season as the AL Central favorite. I think the Indians will earn a wildcard in 2014, and could make a World Series run if they get hot at the right time. They should contend for the next 2-3 years at least, and potentially longer.
Kansas City Royals
GM: Brandon
2013 Record: 102-165-27
Money-
The Royals have about $30M free at the moment, although don't expect them to go for any big names in free agency. This is a team still in a rebuild. Kendrys Morales and Phil Hughes have ugly longterm contracts, but besides for them the Royals have no guaranteed contracts beyond this season. Starling Marte is a cheap stud, with 4 years of team control remaining. Nick Franklin could also be a bargain if he earns a full-time starting job in 2014.
Majors-
Derek Norris flashed his plus power last season, hitting 9 homers and 16 doubles in just 264 ABs. If only he could hit righties (career .173 average), he'd be a star. He may be destined for a platoon at this point. Jordy Mercer looked promising in the 2nd half of 2013, and will get a shot to prove it wasn't a fluke next year. He could provide decent power/speed numbers at SS. Rounding out the OF is Grady Sizemore, who hasn't played since 2011. But ya never know!
Alex Wood and Tyler Thornburg both looked good in limited starts last season, and could emerge as full-time starters next year. Paco Rodriguez arrived in the majors as a shutdown holds reliever, and Joakim Soria may get a chance to close again in 2014.
Minors-
What the Royals lack in top prospects they make up for in depth. Andrew Heaney had a great season in A+ ball, and held his own after moving to AA late in-season. He could reach the majors within the year. Tyler Glasnow looked phenomenal last season, with over 13 K/9, and a 2.18 ERA. Jorge Polanco and Dilson Herrera could both be impact players in the middle infield, and the Dodgers system is brimming with athletic OF prospects. One of them, Lewis Brinson went 20/20 as a 19 year old in A ball. He'll need to cut down on the strikeouts, but no doubt is a very exciting prospect.
Draft Picks-
The Royals have a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in 2014 and all of their 2015 picks. Brandon will have an opportunity to show off his drafting skills and add some more talent to his farm.
Future Projection-
While they aren't there yet, the Royals definitely have a plan in place and it seems to be working. They should be respectable by 2015, and could conceivably compete by 2016. The future is bright.
Minnesota Twins
GM: Brent
2013 Record: 129-150-15
Money-
It seems that the Twins always have a good amount of cap room. At the moment they have slightly over $25M for free agency. How Brent will use it remains to be seen. Hunter Pence and Andre Ethier both carry hefty contracts, but Ethier's is mostly paid for making it more bearable. The Twins have a lot of cheap, controllable players which will help to keep them cheap.
Majors-
Andrelton Simmons looked great in his first full season, showing both plus power for a SS and stellar defense. His defense will keep him playing for a long time, but he'll need to up his batting average if he wants to be a top fantasy SS. Hunter Pence is far and away Brent's best hitter, and had a nice rebound season in 2013, contributing across the board. The Twins have several big holes in their lineup, which could be filled in free agency.
James Shields and Jon Lester lead a deep but overall mediocre starting rotation. Brent has gone quantity over quality with his pitchers, and despite having 16 SPs on his roster, only Shields, Lester, John Lackey, and Scott Feldman appear to be legitimate options next season. The Twins bullpen took a hit losing LaTroy Hawkins and Jamey Wright to free agency.
Minors-
Carlos Correa leads an impressive pack of prospects. He played the entire season as an 18 year old in A ball, and amazingly might have been the best player in the league. The A-Rod/Machado comparisons are easy to see. Correa is a big, athletic SS who should hit for a high average with good power once he fully develops. His speed may disappear as he gets bigger, but Correa definitely deserves consideration as the top prospect in baseball. The Twins system has everything, from catchers, to infielders, to outfielders, to a ridiculous amount of starting pitchers.
Draft Picks-
The Twins have 7 picks in 2014, 5 in the first 3 rounds. In 2015 they have all of their picks except for their first. If Brent is serious about competing in 2014 he would be wise to trade some of his picks to upgrade his MLB squad. The farm is deep enough as is.
Future Projection-
They've had a rough past few seasons but things are finally heading up for the Twins. Brent has amassed a lot of talent between his minors and MLB club, and should be a competitor pretty soon. I don't think 2014 will be that year for the Twins, but they may surprise.
AL WEST:
Oakland Athletics
GM: Russi
2013 Record: 177-104-13
Money-
The A's are set to open free agency with slightly under $5M available, so don't expect them to be making any major signings. Russi has done a good job avoiding crippling contracts, and his only guaranteed players beyond 2015 are Jason Vargas and Jeremy Guthrie. The A's will be losing 3 starters (JJ Hardy, Dexter Fowler, Mat Latos) after the 2014 season, but Russi will have a projected $40M available, so he may be able to retain them.
Majors-
Big bats are the A's main calling card, and they had 5 players swat at least 20 homers last season. Chris Carter will need to improve his plate discipline if he wants to keep a starting job, but he has some of the best raw power in the majors. Yoenis Cespedes will look to rebound from a "down" season where he saw his batting average plummet over 50 points from his rookie season, and his OPS over 120 points. The outfield is where most of the offense's speed comes from, with Norichika Aoki and Dexter Fowler.
Hisashi Iwakuma has been amazing since moving to the rotation in mid-2012, and will lead the A's pitching staff next season. He actually improved as the season went on, posting a 2.14 ERA post ASB, and allowing just 3 earned runs over his final 5 starts. Mat Latos is a workhorse #2, as solid as they come. Beyond them, the staff is somewhat weak. Jason Vargas is an innings-eater but not much more. Lance Lynn is maddeningly inconsistent, and may move to the bullpen in 2014. Wade Miley posted a solid sophomore season on the surface, but his underlying numbers showed a good amount of regression. The bullpen is relatively weak.
Minors-
Russi's minors are very, very weak and consist of just 3 prospects. Mike Freeman, a 26 year old MI, had an OPS of just .643 in AA last season, although he showed nice speed, swiping 29 bags. Erling Moreno was rated by Baseball America as the #16 IFA prospect, but he's a longgg way away and it's too early to tell what he'll turn into. Guillermo Pimentel, an outfield prospect with nice pop and some speed is the most interesting of the group. He should reach AA next season which will be a big step for him.
Draft Picks-
The A's have no picks in 2014, and just a 6th and 7th in 2015. Guess the farm won't be improving anytime soon.
Future Projection-
The runaway favorite for the AL West crown in 2014, the A's are poised to compete for the next 3-5 years if Russi chooses to do so. The pitching will need some help if Mat Latos walks, but most of Russi's hitters are locked up for a few years at least, which will keep the A's competitive.
Texas Rangers
GM: Bill
2013 Record: 142-120-32
Money-
Bill has set himself up with about $20M for free agency, and could have up to $70M free for 2015. The only bad contract on his books is Shaun Marcum, who will make $5.8M a season through 2015. Carlos Gomez is a steal, making just $9M total through 2016.
Majors-
The Rangers have some big holes to fill in their lineup. Losing Chris Davis to free agency was tough, and SS is also an unfilled position. The outfield is quite weak beyond Gomez, with Josh Willingham and Will Venable currently set to open the season in the corner spots.
Derek Holland and Jorge de la Rosa anchor a below-average pitching staff, and beyond them there isn't much to get excited about. Alexi Ogando has looked great as a starter but it doesn't seem like he can handle the physicality of the role, and looks destined for a bullpen role going forward. Brandon McCarthy, Shaun Marcum, and Carlos Carrasco round out the rotation, and all will look to bounce back from disappointing 2013 seasons.
Minors-
While not the most exciting system in the league, the Rangers do have some good prospects. Pierce Johnson, AJ Cole, and JR Graham could all be #2/3 starters in the majors pretty soon, and Wilmer Font should be a bullpen mainstay from 2014 onwards. Luis Sardinas and Jose Peraza are both exciting, speedy middle infielders, and Nolan Fontana also shows promise. Leading the outfield spects is Rymer Liriano. A former top prospect, Liriano missed all of 2013 after undergoing TJ surgery, but he'll be back for 2014 and could be a fine leadoff hitter in a season or two.
Draft Picks-
Bill has his full set of 2014 picks + a 4th and in 2015 has 2 1sts and all of his other picks minus his 2nd. He'll look to add some more high-upside spects to his farm.
Future Projection-
The Rangers MLB club has taken a step back, and is no longer a serious contender for the West division title. If Bill chooses to do so he could compete for a wildcard spot, but he may be best off waiting until 2015 when some of his top prospects will be up and he'll have big cash to burn in FA.
Seattle Mariners
GM: Thomas
2013 Record: 93-177-24
Money-
The Mariners have just over $2M available for free agency this offseason, but have no guaranteed contracts after 2014 and could have over $80M for 2015. Martin Perez could be a steal if he continues to develop next season. He's signed cheaply through 2020.
Majors-
Not a lot of talent here. Nothing of note on the hitting side.
Martin Perez looked good in the majors last year after struggling through AAA in 2011 and 2012. Erasmo Ramirez has looked decent in 21 career starts, but is likely just a swingman/long-reliever. Justin Wilson had a nice rookie season in relief, putting up a 2.08 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.
Minors-
Thomas has done a nice job building up his farm system. Tom Murphy is a slugging catcher, although he's blocked positionally by Wilin Rosario. Kolten Wong could be an above-average 2B as soon as this season, and projects similarly to Howie Kendrick. Dorsyss Paulino and Rosell Herrera both have high ceilings at SS, but are far away from making an MLB impact. Travis Jankowski stole 71 bases last year in A+, but he was 22 and had an OPS of just .711. He'll have a real test in AA next season. Danny Hultzen is out all of 2014, but assuming he can recover, projects as a #2 SP in the majors.
Draft Picks-
Thomas has 8 picks between the first 2 rounds in the 2014 draft as well as 6 picks between rounds 4 and 5. Thomas will get a chance to sharply boost his farm if he can pick well. He has all of his 2015 picks.
Future Projection-
The Mariners won't be good soon, but for the first time in awhile, they're on the rise. The farm is improving, and will continue to do so through the draft. At this rate I'd say Thomas will be decent by 2016, and competitive by 2017.
Los Angeles Angels
GM: Collin
2013 Record: 147-129-18
Money-
Given how much the Angels were over the cap at the start of the offseason, it's impressive where they are now. Collin has just over $50M to spend in free agency. In 2015 he's already over the cap though, so he'd be wise to be wary of giving out any huge contracts. Joe Mauer, Angel Pagan, Melky Cabrera, and Matt Harrison all have ugly longterm contracts.
Majors-
The Angel offense does have some talent, but a lot of it is aging quickly. Joe Mauer is still a top catcher, but is unlikely to make it through a full season healthily. He'll also lose his catcher eligibility in 2015, which will crush his value. Albert Pujols looked terrible in 2013, but coming into the year was still regarded as one of the game's best hitters, so a rebound is distinctly possible. The middle-infield is wide open, and the outfield is pretty weak, with just Pagan, Melky, and Chris Denorfia.
The pitching staff is pretty ugly. Doug Fister is a solid starter, but not an ace like Collin will need him to be. Matt Harrison is a decent backend pitcher, and Ross Detwiler is unlikely to have a rotation spot in 2014. Craig Kimbrel and Tyler Clippard is the top closer/set-up combo in the league, but Collin doesn't have any RPs besides them.
Minors-
The minors have seen a lot of improvement since Andrew's days running the Angels. Delino Deshields Jr. is electric at 2B, and has huge speed. Tommy la Stella had a huge season in AA last year, and played well in the AFL too. He could be the Braves starting 2B in 2014 if Dan Uggla doesn't pick it up. Adam Walker is a huge outfield prospect who could slug 30 homers if he hits his ceiling. Lucas Sims, Max Fried, and Rafael Montero lead the pitching spects and could all be impact starters.
Draft Picks-
Collin has no 2014 picks, and a 1st and 2nd in 2015.
Future Projection-
Like the Rangers, the Angels no longer appear to be serious contenders in the West. I currently have them finishing 3rd, although that could change following free agency if Collin decides that he wants to compete. Coming into the offseason, the Angels had huge future cap problems, which Collin has mostly solved.
NL EAST:
New York Mets
GM: Owen
2013 Record: 198-83-13
Money-
Owen could be in some financial trouble in the next few seasons. He currently has 10 players making at least $10M in 2016, 6 of them making at least $15M. But that's a couple of seasons down the line, so he has plenty of time to make some trades. For free agency, he's set to have just under $10M.
Majors-
It may be expensive but there is a heck of a lot of talent here. The best infield in the league features 5 all-stars, Yadier Molina, Joey Votto, Aaron Hill, Troy Tulowitzki, and David Wright. The outfield is missing a LF, but Shin-Soo Choo and Michael Cuddyer should both be good starters in 2014. Owen also needs a DH, and lacks any depth whatsoever.
If Matt Harvey were healthy, the Mets would have one of the best staffs in the league. Anibal Sanchez and Clay Bucholz lead the group, followed up by other good options like Matt Garza, Yovani Gallardo, and Jon Niese. Even without Harvey, this rotation goes 8-men deep. The bullpen is good, although nothing to get excited about.
Minors-
Owen's minors have taken a hit recently as he's began to push harder for a title. Much of the top talent has been weeded out, but there are still quite a few solid prospects. Zoilo Almonte is major-league ready and projects to have double-digit power and speed. Michael Fulmer and Steven Matz both could be mid-rotation starters, and Andrew Susac is a promising catching spect.
Draft Picks-
The Mets have no 2014 picks, and a 3rd and 4th in 2015.
Future Projection-
Owen has set up his team as the early favorite in a tough NL East, but still has some holes to fill. Lack of depth killed him last year when injuries struck, and is a problem that he still needs to address. He'll need to manage his future cap troubles, but is set up to compete for the next 4-5 years with his current roster.
Atlanta Braves
GM: Wood
2013 Record: 55-212-27
Money-
Wood has no cap for free agency this year, and is unlikely to have much next year either. On the bright side he has no big salaries and will have a lot of financial flexibility going forward.
Majors-
Nothing really to see here. Mike McKenry is a mediocre backup catcher. He hit 12 homers in 2012, and if he can get enough ABs could repeat that.
Javier Lopez has been plagued by injuries the past few seasons, but posted a fine season in the bullpen last year with a 1.83 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 8.5 K/9. He could hold trade value for a team needing a middle reliever.
Minors-
The rebuilding process is in it's early stages in Atlanta, and there aren't many great prospects here yet. Micah Johnson was a nice snag in the Rule V, although his numbers fell off when he faced higher competition last year. He has big speed and decent gap power too. Eduardo Rodriguez is Wood's most promising pitching spect. He was solid between A+ and AA as a 20 year old last season, and could see the majors as a late season call up in 2014.
Draft Picks-
Wood is hoarding up on picks. He has "just" 7 2014 picks, and a ridiculous 39 2015 picks - 18 in the first 3 rounds. Wood has never been a big drafter in the past but he's certainly changing that going forward.
Future Projection-
The Braves are a long-term project. At their current rate, they could be average by 2016, and truly competitive by 2017 or 2018.
Miami Marlins
GM: Kevin
2013 Record: 163-111-20
Money-
With just under $40M available for free agency, expect Kevin to make some big moves. His only guaranteed longterm contract is Brandon Phillips, who will be slightly overpaid by the end of the deal. Having both Bryce Harper and Wil Myers on scale contracts is one of the biggest bargains in the league.
Majors-
The Marlins offense projects to be very good in 2014. Travis D'Arnaud will need to show that he belongs in the majors, but could be a very good hitter one day. Paul Goldschmidt broke out as one of baseball's best hitters last season and will look to continue his success into 2014. Brandon Phillips and Everth Cabrera are a fine MI, bringing a nice mix of power and speed.
Kevin's rotation is solid, but could use an ace if he wants to put it over the top. Brandon Beachy and Cory Luebke were both injured for most of 2013 and will attempt to rebound next season. Andrew Cashner looked great in the rotation, but there are questions about whether he can stick as a starter. Jarrod Parker, Jhoulys Chacin, and Randall Delgado round it out. Kevin has a very good bullpen.
Minors-
CJ Cron saw his power disappear last season, as his OPS fell nearly 100 points. Victor Roache is a powerful outfield prospect, but his plate discipline is a big red flag that he needs to get under control if he wants to be a starter at the MLB level. Jose Ramirez reached the majors as a 20 year old last season and could be an average starter at 2B or SS. Cody Buckel entered 2013 as one of the Rangers best prospects but fell apart completely, walking 35 batters in just 10.2 innings. He'll try to get back on track in 2014.
Draft Picks-
The Marlins have just one 5th in 2014, and all of their 2015 picks plus a 3rd. Kevin could look to add some more depth to a farm that's been thinned out by graduations from it's top prospects.
Future Projection-
The Marlins look primed for a bright future. They have a lot of young talent already on the MLB squad, with more coming in the future. They should compete for a wildcard in 2014, and the division from 2015 onwards.
Washington Nationals
GM: Bryan
2013 Record: 177-97-20
Money-
The Nationals have $20M available for free agency, and Bryan will likely look to add another big piece to complete his team. He is already over the 2015 cap by about $30M, and also already has $80M committed in 2016 to just 4 players.
Majors-
Beyond Miguel Cabrera, who is an absolute stud, the Nats infield is pretty weak. Ryan Doumit is an average catcher, and the same can be said with Chase Utley at 2B. But Alcides Escobar and Gaby Sanchez are not legitimate starting options at 1B and SS. Jason Heyward and Josh Hamilton will both look to rebound from terrible 2013 seasons, but given their pedigrees, both have a good shot of doing so.
Bryan's starting rotation is the highlight of his team. Felix Hernandez and Stephen Strasburg are both aces, and Jered Weaver and Matt Cain both have ace upside as well. The bullpen is pretty ugly, without any good options for saves or holds.
Minors-
Bobby Doran!! A 4th round pick from Texas Tech in 2012, Doran reached AAA in 2013, but doesn't project as more than a long reliever/swingman in the majors.
Draft Picks-
Bryan has 1 5th in 2014 and a variety of late round picks in 2015. He claims that he wants to have a good farm in addition to a top MLB club, but until he can add some better picks that seems unlikely to happen.
Future Projection-
There's something there, but just not enough. The offense won't be good enough to compete with the other top teams in the NL, and the bullpen will likely lead to losses in holds and saves every week. Bryan will compete for a wildcard in 2014, but I ultimately see him falling short of a playoff berth.
Philadelphia Phillies
GM: Oren
2013 Record: 115-147-32
Money-
The Phillies have an outstanding $95M freed up for free agency. Oren's only lengthy contracts at the moment are Ryan Zimmerman and Elvis Andrus, neither of whom is on a terrible deal. Jason Kipnis still has 4 years of team control left and should be a bargain over that time. The same can be said of Freddie Freeman, who has 3 years left.
Majors-
The Phillies have a very good infield, that mixes power with speed very easily. Unfortunately, the outfield is nowhere near as good, and drags the offense as a whole down to an average level. An Aaron Hicks breakout would change that, although the chances of that happening are unlikely. Oren could really use another big, power bat.
The rotation is where Oren will probably spend most of his dollars in free agency. At the moment only Jaime Garcia and Brandon Morrow occupy spots in it. Eww. The bullpen is deep and talented, with both saves and holds guys. It is probably the best pen in the league.
Minors-
Not a whole lot of talent here. Max Muncy had a nice season in 2013, but his power isn't expected to carry well to the majors, and he likely won't hit enough to be a starting 1B. Fautino De Los Santos was once a highly-regarded bullpen arm but his status has taken a beating over the last couple of years. He could still make it though.
Draft Picks-
The Phillies have no draft picks.
Future Projection-
Free agency will determine how the Phils fare going forward. If Oren is smart and doesn't overpay for one or two big contracts, the Phils could compete for the division as soon as this season. I expect them to earn a wildcard in 2014, and to be competitive for the next few years.
NL CENTRAL:
Chicago Cubs
GM: Greg
2013 Record: 162-110-22
Money-
The Cubs have about $20M left for pitchers and IFA this offseason. Greg's only bad contract is AJ Pierzynski, who will cost him $5.6M through 2017, when he'll likely be retired. Cole Hamels will also cost a pretty penny in 2016 at $25M. Carlos Gonzalez has a very team friendly contract, and Greg will also have many cheap scale contracts going forward as his top prospects begin to hit the majors. Gerrit Cole and Mike Zunino were the first of these, and both still have 5 scaled years left.
Majors-
Cub Corp has a solid infield. AJ Pierzynski and Mike Zunino could become a formidable duo at catcher, and Ian Desmond is an every-category stud at SS. Adam Dunn brings big power, albeit with a .200-ish batting average. Neither Brett Lawrie nor Neil Walker have lived up to their potential, but breakout seasons could be ahead for both. Carlos Gonzalez is the Cubs best hitter, and if Jayson Werth can repeat his big 2013 season Greg could have an impressive lineup.
David Price, Jordan Zimmermann, and Cole Hamels headline ODC's top rotation. Ubaldo Jimenez regained his stud form in the 2nd half last season, and Gerrit Cole is another ace in the making. Daniel Hudson and Nate Eovaldi are also both above-average pitchers to round out the starters. There's a lot of talent here. The bullpen is led by 2 stud closers in Aroldis Chapman and Huston Street. Jonny Venters was a top setup man before missing all of 2013 with injuries.
Minors-
A pair of Twins, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano lead Greg's farm. Both have MVP potential and could get MLB trials by late 2014. Rougned Odor is an impressive 2B prospect who crushed AA (.306 BA, .884 OPS) as a 19 year old last season. Archie Bradley and Jonathon Gray are the best of a deep group of pitching prospects that also includes studs like Lucas Giolito, Marcus Stroman, and Nick Kingham.
Draft Picks-
2014 looks like it will be the last year of Cub draft dominance. Greg has amassed over 40 picks (7 in the first 2 rounds) and will look to further add to his farm system. In 2015 he has "just" 8 picks, none in the first 2 rounds.
Future Projection-
The Cubs are set up to be a dynasty for the next decade. Greg will look to steal the NL Central title from the Cardinals in 2014, and should contend for the NL pennant.
St. Louis Cardinals
GM: Jake
2013 Record: 219-55-20
Money-
The Cards won't be making any big moves in free agency, with under $2M free. Fortunately, our 2013 champion has no bad contracts going forward, and is set to have roughly $60M free in 2015, and then max cap room after that. Manny Machado, Jurickson Profar, Wilin Rosario, and others all have sexy scale contracts for the forseeable future.
Majors-
The Cardinals have a very talented lineup, although a lack of depth could cause problems if injuries strike. Mike Trout is an MVP candidate every season, and both Manny Machado and Jurickson Profar could reach that level in the next couple of years. Four different hitters could reach 30 homers next season, but the lineup is a little light on speed. 2 spots remain unfilled (RF and UTIL).
Bartolo Colon is unlikely to repeat his Cy-Young level 2013 season, and Jake will rely on a pair of Yankees, Michael Pineda and Ivan Nova to anchor his staff. Adding an ace would go a long way towards making this a top rotation. For now it sits firmly in average territory. The bullpen is also uninspiring. Chris Perez and Sergio Santos are the 2 most notable players.
Minors-
Jake has a shallow farm but it does have some talent. Roberto Osuna and Marco Gonzalez are both promising pitching prospects. Daniel Corcino drew a lot of Johnny Cueto comparisons early in his career but got shelled in AAA last year to the tune of a 5.86 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. He'll need a strong 2014 season to regain his top prospect status. BJ Boyd and Cesar Puello could become solid regulars in the outfield.
Draft Picks-
The Cards have no picks in 2014 and just one 4th in 2015. Yawn.
Future Projection-
Jake lost a lot of talent following his World Series victory but set himself up very nicely for the future. He'll contend for a division title in 2014 and the NL pennant from 2015 on. I see him earning a wildcard next season.
Pittsburgh Pirates
GM: JT
2013 Record: 77-189-28
Money-
The Pirates won't be signing any big pitchers with just over $2M free for the rest of the offseason. JT has one bad contract with Miguel Montero, but if he rebounds from his atrocious 2013 season the deal won't look nearly as bad. RA Dickey is also earning a good chunk of change, at $12M a year through 2016. Plenty of cheap, young scale players will keep the Pirates overall team salary down.
2013 Record: 93-177-24
Money-
The Mariners have just over $2M available for free agency this offseason, but have no guaranteed contracts after 2014 and could have over $80M for 2015. Martin Perez could be a steal if he continues to develop next season. He's signed cheaply through 2020.
Majors-
Not a lot of talent here. Nothing of note on the hitting side.
Martin Perez looked good in the majors last year after struggling through AAA in 2011 and 2012. Erasmo Ramirez has looked decent in 21 career starts, but is likely just a swingman/long-reliever. Justin Wilson had a nice rookie season in relief, putting up a 2.08 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.
Minors-
Thomas has done a nice job building up his farm system. Tom Murphy is a slugging catcher, although he's blocked positionally by Wilin Rosario. Kolten Wong could be an above-average 2B as soon as this season, and projects similarly to Howie Kendrick. Dorsyss Paulino and Rosell Herrera both have high ceilings at SS, but are far away from making an MLB impact. Travis Jankowski stole 71 bases last year in A+, but he was 22 and had an OPS of just .711. He'll have a real test in AA next season. Danny Hultzen is out all of 2014, but assuming he can recover, projects as a #2 SP in the majors.
Draft Picks-
Thomas has 8 picks between the first 2 rounds in the 2014 draft as well as 6 picks between rounds 4 and 5. Thomas will get a chance to sharply boost his farm if he can pick well. He has all of his 2015 picks.
Future Projection-
The Mariners won't be good soon, but for the first time in awhile, they're on the rise. The farm is improving, and will continue to do so through the draft. At this rate I'd say Thomas will be decent by 2016, and competitive by 2017.
Los Angeles Angels
GM: Collin
2013 Record: 147-129-18
Money-
Given how much the Angels were over the cap at the start of the offseason, it's impressive where they are now. Collin has just over $50M to spend in free agency. In 2015 he's already over the cap though, so he'd be wise to be wary of giving out any huge contracts. Joe Mauer, Angel Pagan, Melky Cabrera, and Matt Harrison all have ugly longterm contracts.
Majors-
The Angel offense does have some talent, but a lot of it is aging quickly. Joe Mauer is still a top catcher, but is unlikely to make it through a full season healthily. He'll also lose his catcher eligibility in 2015, which will crush his value. Albert Pujols looked terrible in 2013, but coming into the year was still regarded as one of the game's best hitters, so a rebound is distinctly possible. The middle-infield is wide open, and the outfield is pretty weak, with just Pagan, Melky, and Chris Denorfia.
The pitching staff is pretty ugly. Doug Fister is a solid starter, but not an ace like Collin will need him to be. Matt Harrison is a decent backend pitcher, and Ross Detwiler is unlikely to have a rotation spot in 2014. Craig Kimbrel and Tyler Clippard is the top closer/set-up combo in the league, but Collin doesn't have any RPs besides them.
Minors-
The minors have seen a lot of improvement since Andrew's days running the Angels. Delino Deshields Jr. is electric at 2B, and has huge speed. Tommy la Stella had a huge season in AA last year, and played well in the AFL too. He could be the Braves starting 2B in 2014 if Dan Uggla doesn't pick it up. Adam Walker is a huge outfield prospect who could slug 30 homers if he hits his ceiling. Lucas Sims, Max Fried, and Rafael Montero lead the pitching spects and could all be impact starters.
Draft Picks-
Collin has no 2014 picks, and a 1st and 2nd in 2015.
Future Projection-
Like the Rangers, the Angels no longer appear to be serious contenders in the West. I currently have them finishing 3rd, although that could change following free agency if Collin decides that he wants to compete. Coming into the offseason, the Angels had huge future cap problems, which Collin has mostly solved.
NL EAST:
New York Mets
GM: Owen
2013 Record: 198-83-13
Money-
Owen could be in some financial trouble in the next few seasons. He currently has 10 players making at least $10M in 2016, 6 of them making at least $15M. But that's a couple of seasons down the line, so he has plenty of time to make some trades. For free agency, he's set to have just under $10M.
Majors-
It may be expensive but there is a heck of a lot of talent here. The best infield in the league features 5 all-stars, Yadier Molina, Joey Votto, Aaron Hill, Troy Tulowitzki, and David Wright. The outfield is missing a LF, but Shin-Soo Choo and Michael Cuddyer should both be good starters in 2014. Owen also needs a DH, and lacks any depth whatsoever.
If Matt Harvey were healthy, the Mets would have one of the best staffs in the league. Anibal Sanchez and Clay Bucholz lead the group, followed up by other good options like Matt Garza, Yovani Gallardo, and Jon Niese. Even without Harvey, this rotation goes 8-men deep. The bullpen is good, although nothing to get excited about.
Minors-
Owen's minors have taken a hit recently as he's began to push harder for a title. Much of the top talent has been weeded out, but there are still quite a few solid prospects. Zoilo Almonte is major-league ready and projects to have double-digit power and speed. Michael Fulmer and Steven Matz both could be mid-rotation starters, and Andrew Susac is a promising catching spect.
Draft Picks-
The Mets have no 2014 picks, and a 3rd and 4th in 2015.
Future Projection-
Owen has set up his team as the early favorite in a tough NL East, but still has some holes to fill. Lack of depth killed him last year when injuries struck, and is a problem that he still needs to address. He'll need to manage his future cap troubles, but is set up to compete for the next 4-5 years with his current roster.
Atlanta Braves
GM: Wood
2013 Record: 55-212-27
Money-
Wood has no cap for free agency this year, and is unlikely to have much next year either. On the bright side he has no big salaries and will have a lot of financial flexibility going forward.
Majors-
Nothing really to see here. Mike McKenry is a mediocre backup catcher. He hit 12 homers in 2012, and if he can get enough ABs could repeat that.
Javier Lopez has been plagued by injuries the past few seasons, but posted a fine season in the bullpen last year with a 1.83 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 8.5 K/9. He could hold trade value for a team needing a middle reliever.
Minors-
The rebuilding process is in it's early stages in Atlanta, and there aren't many great prospects here yet. Micah Johnson was a nice snag in the Rule V, although his numbers fell off when he faced higher competition last year. He has big speed and decent gap power too. Eduardo Rodriguez is Wood's most promising pitching spect. He was solid between A+ and AA as a 20 year old last season, and could see the majors as a late season call up in 2014.
Draft Picks-
Wood is hoarding up on picks. He has "just" 7 2014 picks, and a ridiculous 39 2015 picks - 18 in the first 3 rounds. Wood has never been a big drafter in the past but he's certainly changing that going forward.
Future Projection-
The Braves are a long-term project. At their current rate, they could be average by 2016, and truly competitive by 2017 or 2018.
Miami Marlins
GM: Kevin
2013 Record: 163-111-20
Money-
With just under $40M available for free agency, expect Kevin to make some big moves. His only guaranteed longterm contract is Brandon Phillips, who will be slightly overpaid by the end of the deal. Having both Bryce Harper and Wil Myers on scale contracts is one of the biggest bargains in the league.
Majors-
The Marlins offense projects to be very good in 2014. Travis D'Arnaud will need to show that he belongs in the majors, but could be a very good hitter one day. Paul Goldschmidt broke out as one of baseball's best hitters last season and will look to continue his success into 2014. Brandon Phillips and Everth Cabrera are a fine MI, bringing a nice mix of power and speed.
Kevin's rotation is solid, but could use an ace if he wants to put it over the top. Brandon Beachy and Cory Luebke were both injured for most of 2013 and will attempt to rebound next season. Andrew Cashner looked great in the rotation, but there are questions about whether he can stick as a starter. Jarrod Parker, Jhoulys Chacin, and Randall Delgado round it out. Kevin has a very good bullpen.
Minors-
CJ Cron saw his power disappear last season, as his OPS fell nearly 100 points. Victor Roache is a powerful outfield prospect, but his plate discipline is a big red flag that he needs to get under control if he wants to be a starter at the MLB level. Jose Ramirez reached the majors as a 20 year old last season and could be an average starter at 2B or SS. Cody Buckel entered 2013 as one of the Rangers best prospects but fell apart completely, walking 35 batters in just 10.2 innings. He'll try to get back on track in 2014.
Draft Picks-
The Marlins have just one 5th in 2014, and all of their 2015 picks plus a 3rd. Kevin could look to add some more depth to a farm that's been thinned out by graduations from it's top prospects.
Future Projection-
The Marlins look primed for a bright future. They have a lot of young talent already on the MLB squad, with more coming in the future. They should compete for a wildcard in 2014, and the division from 2015 onwards.
Washington Nationals
GM: Bryan
2013 Record: 177-97-20
Money-
The Nationals have $20M available for free agency, and Bryan will likely look to add another big piece to complete his team. He is already over the 2015 cap by about $30M, and also already has $80M committed in 2016 to just 4 players.
Majors-
Beyond Miguel Cabrera, who is an absolute stud, the Nats infield is pretty weak. Ryan Doumit is an average catcher, and the same can be said with Chase Utley at 2B. But Alcides Escobar and Gaby Sanchez are not legitimate starting options at 1B and SS. Jason Heyward and Josh Hamilton will both look to rebound from terrible 2013 seasons, but given their pedigrees, both have a good shot of doing so.
Bryan's starting rotation is the highlight of his team. Felix Hernandez and Stephen Strasburg are both aces, and Jered Weaver and Matt Cain both have ace upside as well. The bullpen is pretty ugly, without any good options for saves or holds.
Minors-
Bobby Doran!! A 4th round pick from Texas Tech in 2012, Doran reached AAA in 2013, but doesn't project as more than a long reliever/swingman in the majors.
Draft Picks-
Bryan has 1 5th in 2014 and a variety of late round picks in 2015. He claims that he wants to have a good farm in addition to a top MLB club, but until he can add some better picks that seems unlikely to happen.
Future Projection-
There's something there, but just not enough. The offense won't be good enough to compete with the other top teams in the NL, and the bullpen will likely lead to losses in holds and saves every week. Bryan will compete for a wildcard in 2014, but I ultimately see him falling short of a playoff berth.
Philadelphia Phillies
GM: Oren
2013 Record: 115-147-32
Money-
The Phillies have an outstanding $95M freed up for free agency. Oren's only lengthy contracts at the moment are Ryan Zimmerman and Elvis Andrus, neither of whom is on a terrible deal. Jason Kipnis still has 4 years of team control left and should be a bargain over that time. The same can be said of Freddie Freeman, who has 3 years left.
Majors-
The Phillies have a very good infield, that mixes power with speed very easily. Unfortunately, the outfield is nowhere near as good, and drags the offense as a whole down to an average level. An Aaron Hicks breakout would change that, although the chances of that happening are unlikely. Oren could really use another big, power bat.
The rotation is where Oren will probably spend most of his dollars in free agency. At the moment only Jaime Garcia and Brandon Morrow occupy spots in it. Eww. The bullpen is deep and talented, with both saves and holds guys. It is probably the best pen in the league.
Minors-
Not a whole lot of talent here. Max Muncy had a nice season in 2013, but his power isn't expected to carry well to the majors, and he likely won't hit enough to be a starting 1B. Fautino De Los Santos was once a highly-regarded bullpen arm but his status has taken a beating over the last couple of years. He could still make it though.
Draft Picks-
The Phillies have no draft picks.
Future Projection-
Free agency will determine how the Phils fare going forward. If Oren is smart and doesn't overpay for one or two big contracts, the Phils could compete for the division as soon as this season. I expect them to earn a wildcard in 2014, and to be competitive for the next few years.
NL CENTRAL:
Chicago Cubs
GM: Greg
2013 Record: 162-110-22
Money-
The Cubs have about $20M left for pitchers and IFA this offseason. Greg's only bad contract is AJ Pierzynski, who will cost him $5.6M through 2017, when he'll likely be retired. Cole Hamels will also cost a pretty penny in 2016 at $25M. Carlos Gonzalez has a very team friendly contract, and Greg will also have many cheap scale contracts going forward as his top prospects begin to hit the majors. Gerrit Cole and Mike Zunino were the first of these, and both still have 5 scaled years left.
Majors-
Cub Corp has a solid infield. AJ Pierzynski and Mike Zunino could become a formidable duo at catcher, and Ian Desmond is an every-category stud at SS. Adam Dunn brings big power, albeit with a .200-ish batting average. Neither Brett Lawrie nor Neil Walker have lived up to their potential, but breakout seasons could be ahead for both. Carlos Gonzalez is the Cubs best hitter, and if Jayson Werth can repeat his big 2013 season Greg could have an impressive lineup.
David Price, Jordan Zimmermann, and Cole Hamels headline ODC's top rotation. Ubaldo Jimenez regained his stud form in the 2nd half last season, and Gerrit Cole is another ace in the making. Daniel Hudson and Nate Eovaldi are also both above-average pitchers to round out the starters. There's a lot of talent here. The bullpen is led by 2 stud closers in Aroldis Chapman and Huston Street. Jonny Venters was a top setup man before missing all of 2013 with injuries.
Minors-
A pair of Twins, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano lead Greg's farm. Both have MVP potential and could get MLB trials by late 2014. Rougned Odor is an impressive 2B prospect who crushed AA (.306 BA, .884 OPS) as a 19 year old last season. Archie Bradley and Jonathon Gray are the best of a deep group of pitching prospects that also includes studs like Lucas Giolito, Marcus Stroman, and Nick Kingham.
Draft Picks-
2014 looks like it will be the last year of Cub draft dominance. Greg has amassed over 40 picks (7 in the first 2 rounds) and will look to further add to his farm system. In 2015 he has "just" 8 picks, none in the first 2 rounds.
Future Projection-
The Cubs are set up to be a dynasty for the next decade. Greg will look to steal the NL Central title from the Cardinals in 2014, and should contend for the NL pennant.
St. Louis Cardinals
GM: Jake
2013 Record: 219-55-20
Money-
The Cards won't be making any big moves in free agency, with under $2M free. Fortunately, our 2013 champion has no bad contracts going forward, and is set to have roughly $60M free in 2015, and then max cap room after that. Manny Machado, Jurickson Profar, Wilin Rosario, and others all have sexy scale contracts for the forseeable future.
Majors-
The Cardinals have a very talented lineup, although a lack of depth could cause problems if injuries strike. Mike Trout is an MVP candidate every season, and both Manny Machado and Jurickson Profar could reach that level in the next couple of years. Four different hitters could reach 30 homers next season, but the lineup is a little light on speed. 2 spots remain unfilled (RF and UTIL).
Bartolo Colon is unlikely to repeat his Cy-Young level 2013 season, and Jake will rely on a pair of Yankees, Michael Pineda and Ivan Nova to anchor his staff. Adding an ace would go a long way towards making this a top rotation. For now it sits firmly in average territory. The bullpen is also uninspiring. Chris Perez and Sergio Santos are the 2 most notable players.
Minors-
Jake has a shallow farm but it does have some talent. Roberto Osuna and Marco Gonzalez are both promising pitching prospects. Daniel Corcino drew a lot of Johnny Cueto comparisons early in his career but got shelled in AAA last year to the tune of a 5.86 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. He'll need a strong 2014 season to regain his top prospect status. BJ Boyd and Cesar Puello could become solid regulars in the outfield.
Draft Picks-
The Cards have no picks in 2014 and just one 4th in 2015. Yawn.
Future Projection-
Jake lost a lot of talent following his World Series victory but set himself up very nicely for the future. He'll contend for a division title in 2014 and the NL pennant from 2015 on. I see him earning a wildcard next season.
Pittsburgh Pirates
GM: JT
2013 Record: 77-189-28
Money-
The Pirates won't be signing any big pitchers with just over $2M free for the rest of the offseason. JT has one bad contract with Miguel Montero, but if he rebounds from his atrocious 2013 season the deal won't look nearly as bad. RA Dickey is also earning a good chunk of change, at $12M a year through 2016. Plenty of cheap, young scale players will keep the Pirates overall team salary down.
Majors-
This is a very average team. Yasiel Puig is a star, but he won't be able to carry the offense on his own. Adam Lind and Lucas Duda are power bats at 1B, and Jedd Gyorko had a strong rookie season, blasting 23 homers. If Billy Hamilton can get 500 ABs he'll likely steal 70+ bases, and could single-handedly win that category for JT every week.
There's a lot of young power arms to get excited about in the Pirates rotation. Taijuan Walker, Tony Cingrani, Michael Wacha, and Danny Salazar are all future all-stars with big strikeout potential. RA Dickey and Ian Kennedy are the veterans who will anchor JTs staff. Both had down 2013 seasons but are nice rebound candidates going forward. Trevor Rosenthal and Carlos Martinez are intriguing bullpen arms. Bobby Parnell looked great in the closer role last season, but the Mets haven't wanted to commit to him for future seasons.
Minors-
The farm has been somewhat thinned out by graduations but is still one of the best in the league. Jonathan Singleton struggled in 2013 but is still a good prospect and should contribute in the majors this season. Addison Russell is a slugging SS who's already one of the top prospects in the baseball. Oscar Taveras scuffled with injury issues last year and will look to get back on track in 2014, potentially starting the year in the Cardinals outfield. Robert Stephenson and Eddie Butler are JT's top pitching prospects but there are many other guys to also get excited about.
Draft Picks-
JT has 8 picks in the 2014 draft, and 7 of them are first rounders. He'll look to add even more high upside spects to his already strong farm. In 2015 he has his 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th round picks.
Future Projection-
The Pirates will look to compete in 2014 and will fight for a wildcard spot. If JT gets breakout seasons from young players like Billy Hamilton and Nolan Arenado he could sneak into the playoffs. If not, the Pirates will need to wait until 2015. The rotation has the potential to be great as soon as this season and will be the Pirates calling card in future seasons.
Houston Astros
GM: Max
2013 Record: 44-220-30
Money-
Max has about $23M free for pitching, and he'll need to spend it smartly with only 2 spots filled between his rotation and bullpen. Brian McCann, Chase Headley, and Prince Fielder all have ugly longterm contracts, but only Prince's is truly cap-killing ($34M through 2016).
Majors-
There's a lot of talent here but also a lot of work left to do. Between McCann, Fielder, and Justin Upton the offense has a lot of firepower, but it is really lacking in speed. Junior Lake had a nice rookie season posting a .284 average with 6 homers and 4 steals in 230 at bats. He's Max's only non-veteran starter. A hole remains at 2B and it's unclear how Max plans to fill it.
Jake Peavy and Doug Fister are the only pitchers currently on the Astros roster. Both are solid mid-rotation pitchers and can successfully eat plenty of innings. Peavy is 5 years removed from his last true "ace" season in 2008 when he posted a 2.85 ERA. Since then he's had a 4.00 ERA. Max will need to fill the rest of his rotation through free agency. Adding an ace (Scherzer? Tanaka?) would be huge but it's unclear if Max will be able to work out the finances.
Minors-
Mark Appel and Julio Urias are the only two prospects to get very excited about. Appel was the #1 pick in the 2013 draft and had a solid debut between low-A and A ball posting a 3.79 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He projects as a future #2/3 starter. Max also owns the rights to Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson. Wilson was a 4th round pick in 2010 and over 315 at-bats posted a .710 OPS with 22 extra base hits and 19 steals. Solid numbers for a 2B, should Wilson ever decide to return to baseball.
Draft Picks-
Max owns a 3rd and 4th in 2014 and has no picks in 2015.
Future Projection-
It looks like the Astros will try to contend in 2014. How successful they'll be will largely hinge upon how Max fills out his pitching rotation. The offense is solid but can't carry the team. I currently don't see how Houston fits into the postseason picture, but there's a lot of offseason left. Max doesn't have a large window of contention with so many of his players aging, so he'll want to maximize his current chances.
Milwaukee Brewers
GM: Mike
2013 Record: 161-115-18
Money-
The Brewers have $12M remaining in cap room. Beyond 2015 the only guaranteed contracts are Joel Hanrahan ($4.2M) and Michael Morse ($6.3M). Paz will have about $30M free for the 2015 offseason and $80M+ free after that. Some big free agent signings could be in the Brewers future.
Majors-
Gaby Sanchez got his career off with a bang, nearly winning ROY in 2010 and making the All-Star team in 2011. Since then, he's fallen off a cliff, hitting just .234 with a .689 OPS between 2012 and 2013. Michael Morse struggled last year but was a stud in the 3 seasons before that, and he'll look to rebound in 2014. Jordan Schafer has become a stolen base artist, averaging 41 per 162 games the past 3 seasons. Unfortunately he doesn't contribute much more than that.
Tyson Ross looked strong as a starter last year with a 3.06 ERA and 9.3 K/9. Henderson Alvarez showed lots of improvement with a 3.18 FIP in 2013, but he doesn't strike anyone out and is best suited for a backend of the rotation starter role. Paz doesn't have much else in the rotation though. Jeremy Hefner will miss most/all of 2014 recovering from TJ surgery, and Franklin Morales is really a RP. There's not much to see in the bullpen.
Minors-
Francisco Lindor is the best of an average farm system. He projects as a future star at SS, but he'll be more valuable in real life than in fantasy. Ryan McMahon had a strong debut in rookie ball last year, blasting 32 extra base hits in just over 200 ABs. Nomar Mazara has massive raw power, but has yet to transfer it to game action. He was aggressively placed in A-ball as an 18 year old last year and held his own, with a .692 OPS and solid plate discipline.
Draft Picks-
Mike has stocked up on picks for 2014, with 15 in the first 2 rounds. He'll look to get his rebuilding project underway by adding some more top talent to his farm. He also has 3 1sts and 2 2nds in 2015.
Future Projection-
The Brewers are a long way off from truly competing. They play in the strong NL Central and are just starting to rebuild. I'd say they could be average by 2016, and competitive by 2017. To reach those goals will require strong leadership from Paz.
Cincinnati Reds
GM: Rich
2013 Record: 95-179-20
Money-
The Reds have just under $3M left to spend on pitching and IFAs. Dan Uggla and Michael Bourn both have really ugly contracts. Bourn will make between $12-14M through 2017, and Uggla will make $4M this year and $10M next, when he may not even remain a starter. Jacob Turner and Wilson Ramos have the 2 most attractive contracts on the Reds, both are on the scale.
Majors-
This is a solid-average team. James Loney looked good in 2013 (.299 batting average, 75 RBIs) but fell off in the 2nd half and is a below average starter at 1B. Howie Kendrick is a top-10 2B but he can't seem to avoid the injury bug. Chris Johnson became a batting champion last year seemingly out of nowhere, and will be hard-pressed to continue his success in the future. Michael Bourn lost most of his speed last year. He stole just 23 bases, a career low since becoming a full-time starter. He was also successful on just 65% of his attempts, also a career low.
Kyle Lohse is the ace of a mediocre pitching staff. Corey Kluber had a strong season last year, posting a 3.85 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with good strikeout numbers. Miguel Gonzalez and Jacob Turner posted similar numbers. Andrew Bailey is the most notable player in a shallow bullpen, which Rich will need to fill out in free agency.
Minors-
The minor league system in Cincy is deep but weak, with no real stars. Deck McGuire was a former top prospect but has now pitched in AA for 3 seasons showing little improvement, and his prospect status is in jeopardy. Casey Crosby could pitch in Detroit's rotation next year but has struggled in AAA the past 2 years. Adrian Marin has some potential as a SS with decent power/speed.
Draft Picks-
The Reds have no draft picks in 2014 or 2015.
Future Projection-
Rich has made it his goal to be competitive, and while I don't see him reaching the playoffs he'll certainly be better than last year. If he can get some breakout/comeback seasons his team could sneak into a wildcard spot. Don't underestimate the Reds next year.
NL WEST: Coming Thursday
2019 On Deck Circle Champions!
Cano, here I come!!!!!
