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Post by Brewers GM (Marty) on Oct 14, 2014 12:27:33 GMT -5
This ranking is for teams 30-26. I'm breaking it off at 26 because to that point they're pretty easy writeups. The format will be as follows:
Top Tier: I'll list off some guys that I think are the relative top level guys of the individual system. The top tier of team 30 does not mean I put those prospects on par with Kris Bryant. It just means they are the guys that are above the rest in that system. Some systems are very deep, even at the top. If I don't list someone, it's not because I missed them, it's because I'm trying to be somewhat concise. Unless there is one standout guy, they are also not in any order.
Player to Watch: I'm not going to just do a deep sleeper for each system. Some will, but others will be guys who for whatever reason might have played unexpectedly well or poorly in the '14 season, or might be facing a test in '15. I'll write a short something about why they're here in this space too.
The System: Just a basic overview of the system as a whole.
I'll write this up as I get time, and may review/make new rankings depending on reception and time. I have 30-25 done, and will post sometime today. I'm just writing and posting this intro because I have the time right now.
This whole thing is fantasy centered. It means that because MLB.com likes a guy or ranks them highly, that I will too. They value defense, especially at C, SS, and CF, and devalue players at the corner OF spots and 1B. I value position eligibility and ability to contribute meaningful stats to a fantasy lineup. I'm also not a scout or expert. I don't know swing mechanics or pitching mechanics. I'm just a prospect nerd who reads articles from guys that do know that stuff.
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Post by Brewers GM (Marty) on Oct 14, 2014 12:51:50 GMT -5
30: Oakland A's
Top Tier: Erling Moreno
Player to watch: Erling Moreno. Mostly because there just isn't anything else besides a guy who is light years away from contributing.
The system: Nothing to see here, move along. Clearly gutted to be competitive.
29: LA Dodgers
Top Tier: A few of these guys could be 5th inning relievers, or 35th man on the roster in September types. I don't know which one it'll be
Player to watch: There's just nothing of interest.
The system: Maybe one of these guys surprises and becomes a utility player or a finesse 7th inning guy that can maybe get a few holds a season. I'd be shocked though. Only ranks ahead of A's because anything can happen with Moreno. These guys are slightly more likely to contribute something before moving onto the corporate cubicle jobs they're more suited for.
28: Chicago White Sox
Top Tier: Barrett Astin, Ariel Pena, Rob Zastryzny
Player to watch: Tony Kemp is hopelessly blocked as a full time player at the moment by a better version of himself. Probably a utility future, but if he can get a trade, he could contribute to a lineup. As an injury fill in he could also provide value, as he does have an OK bat and good speed. Which is also the reason the Astros aren't likely to move him.
The system: Gutted to be competitive. Ranks here because Astin and Pena could be 7th/8th inning guys, or if Pena's control comes way around he could be an OK starter.
27: Baltimore Orioles
Top Tier, Player to Watch, and The System: Chris Drury. Has showed an improved approach since his trade from the Braves. Could land somewhere between Matt Dominguez and Martin Prado (w/o all the position eligibility) for fantasy purposes. Otherwise nothing else here.
26: New York Yankees
Top Tier: Jose Herrera, Sean Coyle, Willy Adames
Player to Watch: Lane Thomas, mostly because I love these types of guys. Good enough athlete to stick in CF, has some power that he needs to learn to get to. Could fail unspectacularly, could be a very nice player. Must have been an autopick selection.
The System: It's pretty bleak. Coyle came back from the dead, and Herrera/Adames can help in time but both are a few years away. There are enough names on the list that someone could turn into a Cole Calhoun or Daniel Nava-style late bloomer, but you could also probably release most of the list and not regret it.
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Post by Brewers GM (Marty) on Oct 14, 2014 16:08:39 GMT -5
25: Houston Astros
Top Tier: Casey Kelly, Parker Bridwell
Player to Watch: Russell Wilson. Heading into his 3rd year his stats aren't spectacular, but he just wins games. Uses his legs well, makes great decisions, and can throw on the run. Oh, he's also got a ring. What more could you ask for a QB heading into his prime?
The System: I admit, this ranking is prior to the Ben Lively trade, who was also my player to watch. I think AA will be a test for a guy who is a lot of smoke and mirrors. But that guy is in a different system now. Kelly needs to show something after his TJ recovery, and Bridwell has a dominant arm but has not come close to dominating with it yet. I'd keep the ranking about where it is, but would have included it in the same tier as above.
24: Miami Marlins
Top Tier: Jose Ramirez, Christian Colon, Miguel Andujar
Player to Watch: Kent Emanuel. Nobody throws well in Lancaster. Almost nobody, I guess. Emanuel doesn't blow anyone away, but he does have solid command of 3 pitches, which usually will get a lefty to the majors. He's listed b/c he doesn't have much of a fastball, so he is under the radar. But I think he contributes in a Randy Wolf kind of way, which in the good years is OK if he's at the back end of your fantasy rotation in a league like this.
The System: Like the others listed above, it's sparse. No surefire future stars, but Ramirez can be solid, and had Colon been drafted in the 4th round instead of 4th overall he'd get better press. I think he can contribute in a solid capacity, as long as expectations beyond a solid BA/OBP are tempered. Andujar has a nice ceiling, but is a long way away. He is the lone player that could contribute to a good fantasy roster.
23: Cleveland Indians
Top Tier: Blake Swihart, Jesus Aguilar, Hunter Strickland
Player(s) to Watch: You can watch all the rest head to the waiver wire. They wouldn't be missed.
The System: To this point, the only possible star contributor in any of these systems is Swihart. He's developing exactly as a catcher should, and should be a great piece going forward for the Indians. Aguilar needs more than a cup of coffee to find out for sure if he can hit (I think he could), but could also just be a AAAA slugger. Strickland made a huge jump from A+, and got 7 good innings. Could be getting groomed for the closer role. Still needs work though.
22: Colorado Rockies
Top Tier: Adalberto Mejia,Teoscar Hernandez
Player to Watch: Zach Green
The System: It's pretty barren, really. Mejia can be a solid 2/3 starter, and Hernandez is a tools monster that performed pretty well. He needs to get his strikeouts toned down, but I believe he will. Green is another guy where if he can get into his huge power he becomes a upper tier 3B option. Green is less likely to explode than Hernandez, but he should still hit OK. I think he progresses 1 level at a time, struggles a bit, then blooms in his late 20's. I don't know why.
21: Atlanta Braves
Top Tier: Edwardo Rodriguez, Daniel Robertson, Rob Refsnyder, Micah Johnson
Player to Watch: Pat Kivlehan. He's an older prospect, but was also a football guy until recently. He had a strong season in AA, and he's made nice strides getting to his power. He also has a very good approach and contact ability for a guy that's supposed to be raw. May end up in the OF thanks to the presence of Kyle Seager, but should contribute soon. Flies way too far under the radar at this point.
The System: Wood has a ton of picks, many of them early, in the '15 draft. If there's enough talent in the pool, and Wood can find it, this will be a system on the rise. Guys like Rodriguez, Refsnyder, and Johnson should contribute soon, and if he can find a position Kivlehan as well.
20: New York Mets
Top Tier: Tyrone Taylor, Stephen Matz, Andrew Susac
Player to Watch: Michael Fulmer came off TJ surgery in '13 and pitched solidly. If his health holds up, as well as his above average stuff, he could be a 2/3 starter. He also has the arm to be a back of the bullpen arm if he doesn't get the polish to stick in the rotation.
The System: I love Matz, and because of that I almost put this system above the Mariners. Of both rosters' players, I think Matz has the most potential to be an impact fantasy player. But I felt that Taylor's and Susac's contributions will be less than Winker's and Lindor's, although I do like both. But the two are very similar once you get past the impact names in the next system.
19: Seattle Mariners
Top Tier: Francisco Lindor, Jesse Winker, Colin Moran
Player to Watch: Colin Moran is another Christian Colon-type. If it wasn't for his draft status, he'd be better regarded. If his power doesn't come in, he can be useful as a BA/OBP type, but likely won't give much more. If his power comes in this season, then he becomes very, very valuable. Either way, he'll contribute positively in some fashion.
The System: Lindor is a classic example of a guy that is very valuable in real life, but in fantasy he's merely slightly above average on a good roster. He'll be solid, but I don't see a 20 HR or 40 SB outburst out of him. Winker is a nice bat, but is confined to LF until Votto's time is done. He's also currently a very polished bat without much athleticism, which puts me in the mind of Ben Grieve. There's not much else in this system behind these three. Others who have different opinions on these three would have the system much higher.
18: Arizona Diamondbacks
Top Tier: Francisco Mejia, Derek Fisher, Alex Yarbrough, Keury Mella
Player to Watch: Seth Mejias-Brean was a solid hitter in college, but never hit for power. In his first stint in rookie ball he hit 8 hr's. After that, it vanished again. Last year it showed up again, and if it stays he becomes a very solid 3B prospect.
The System: The top tier is solid but young, and Fisher could turn out to be a steal in the 2nd round for the DBacks in this summer's draft. Mella has a nice arm, and Mejia reminds some of Carlos Santana. Yarbrough isn't spectacular, but could be a solid BA/OBP option at 2B.
17: Washington Nationals
Top Tier: DJ Peterson, Nick Kingham, Jake Cave, Bradley Zimmer
Player to Watch: Giovany Urshela has been someone I've watched for a while. His numbers don't stand out, but he learned how to get to his power this year, has always been young for his leagues, and plays enough defense that his glove should get him a shot on its own merit. Won't be great, but he may be a late bloomer and surprise you with some good seasons in his late 20's.
The System: After this group there's not much. Cave is solid, as is Zimmer and Kingham. They're probably more support pieces than cornerstones though. Peterson will have to head to 1B soon, where he'll need to be a monster if he's going to get a shot. At least he's on an AL team, so he's got 2 ways to get into the lineup. But with power getting to be somewhat rare, he's a nice commodity.
16: Detroit Tigers
Top Tier: Tim Anderson, Aaron Judge, Courtney Hawkins, Amed Rosario, Matt Barnes
Player to Watch: Jorge Mateo has a lot of tools, and is a long way away. But he plays a premium position, and is capable of being a big contributor in a few categories. Full season ball will fill in a lot of the story for him, as a good performance in '15 will vault him up lists.
The System: There's a lot of talent in this system. However most of it is young and still very raw. Hawkins showed some improvement, and Anderson and Judge flashed their ability all season. Matt Barnes has been a disappointment since his dominating debut. I could have also written about Abi Avelino, Duane Underwood, or Jairo Labourt in the Player to Watch section and said nearly the same thing. All of them could be very good and make this list look much different in a year.
15: St. Louis Cardinals
Top Tier: Julio Urias, Dominic Smith, Alen Hanson, Stephen Piscotty
Player to watch: Lucas Sims had a terrible season in '14. He lost control of all his pitches, and when he did find the zone his opponents found the ball. Big dip in strikeouts this year. I didn't see anything about a dip in stuff, so maybe it's fixable and wasn't an injury. The '15 season will be enlightening, as the Braves usually do a good job of developing pitchers. If they can't bring him back, it could be trouble.
The System: There is an obvious headliner here, and Urias singlehandedly vaults the system above some of the other deeper farms. A true 1/2 starter is hard to find. Smith and Hanson can also be solid, but don't expect Smith to display more than doubles power next season either as Wilmington is the minor league version of Safeco. Bats die there. Piscotty will struggle to find playing time in a crowded OF, and unfortunately for him the Cardinals org doesn't seem too concerned. He'll probably be a Cardinal until personnel rules intervene.
14: San Francisco Giants
Top Tier: Forrest Wall, Devon Travis, Mitch Nay, JP Crawford, Hunter Harvey, Christian Binford
Player to Watch: Joe Ross quietly put together a really nice season. After struggling with control since being drafted, he finished his season in AA with a 19:1 K/BB ratio. He has good stuff, but an extended look in AA will be very telling. Even with his struggles he shows more polish as his brother at the same stage in his career.
The System: It's still a deep system, despite recent trades. Harvey and Crawford are the stars here, and both should be very nice MLB players. Nay needs some polish, and Wall/Travis can be nice 2B options. Aaron Blair pitched very well this season, making it all the way to AA. There are a lot of guys I'm not able to mention, but overall it's a very deep system.
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Post by Brewers GM (Marty) on Oct 14, 2014 23:33:59 GMT -5
13: Tampa Bay Rays
Top Tier: Brandon Finnegan, Dalton Pompey, Max Pentecost, Grant Holmes
Player to Watch: Taylor Jungmann...give me a second. I'm serious. Anyhow, his stuff picked up in AA/AAA this past year, as he started striking out guys at a much improved rate. Not that it could get worse. But with some refined command his future as a back end SP at best could end up in the mid-rotation level, which makes him fantasy relevant.
The System: Once Finnegan, Pompey, and maybe Jungmann graduate, there's not much left next season. I'm pretty high on Pentecost, as he reminds me of Lucroy a bit, and I also am a big fan of Holmes. All in all, I feel that this system has more impact talent in it right now than the teams that are slightly behind him. I could be too high on Pompey and Finnegan, but I do think that at worst they're solid contributors, and I think Finnegan can get more. He only fell out of the top 10 in the draft due to an injury scare, but he's looked healthy since being drafted.
12: Texas Rangers
Top Tier: Jose Peraza, James Ramsey, Luke Jackson, AJ Cole, Vince Velazquez
Player to Watch: Wilmer Difo. He broke out this season, showing solid doubles power along with good speed. Everything I read talked about how lively the ball was off his bat and his baseball instincts. Both bode well for the future. He also looks to be a SB contributor as well going forward.
The System: This is another fairly deep system. Peraza looks to be the real answer to the Braves 2B issues and can be a much bigger contributor than La Stella or Gosselin. Ramsey is underrated, IMO, and is a guy who can produce solidly all around. He also got a big boost with the trade to CLE. Jackson and Cole can be good 2/3 starters. Both could use some command tweaks, but Jackson's issues are slightly worse. Oh, and remember when I mentioned Lancaster and pitcher struggles? Velasquez dominated. He's another guy with a big arm and if he can stay healthy he is at least on par with Cole and Jackson. This past draft also gave the Rangers several other higher ceiling arms.
11: Anaheim Angels
Top Tier: Nick Gordon, Max Fried, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Marcos Molina, Tyler Danish
Player to Watch: Kean Wong. Kolton's brother needs to find his power. Pitchers in higher levels will just knock the bat out of his hands unless he learns to sting the ball into the gaps. That said, from what I've read he's better than Kolton was in his first seasons at Hawaii.
The System: It's been bolstered by gutting the MLB roster, but he's pulled back some quality. Gordon will stay at SS, and should hit all the way up. I haven't heard much about Fried, but this year was a lost year due to injury. Molina and Danish need to prove that they can dominate the upper levels, but have been good at the bottom. I've read that both have wonky deliveries that create deception, and those are the guys that don't get truly tested in the A-ball levels. Wong is capable of being solid, and I like him. But the power issue is real. He's got solid but unspectacular depth behind Gordon, but he may not need it. Gordon could move quick, and I really don't buy into Marte or Lee as fantasy contributors. There's some decent pitching in here, and Flaherty could be a mover.
10: Philadelphia Phillies
Top Tier: Matt Wisler, Andrew Heaney, Miguel Castro, Kyle Freeland, Hunter Dozier, Raimel Tapia
Player to Watch: Ben Lively has something to prove. I think he starts in AA again next season. His walk rate spiked in AA, and I wonder if he can continue to fool hitters with his delivery. They're the kind of guys that are outstanding once through the league, then they learn you and you are out of ideas to get guys out. He's another that may not get figured out until the majors.
The System: After many, many trades, this farm is kind of what it is. He has a lot of nice young arms in the upper tier of his system, but the bats kind of lag behind. Tapia is nice, but his home/road splits are nuts. Dozier struggled after his promotion, but is capable of getting going again. Bradley and Arroyo are solid bats as well, but will be a few years away. Bradley is 1B only, so he'll have to crush his way through the system. Arroyo at least has some options defensively. Castro is a guy I love, as you may have noticed in the MCB Rule V draft.
9: Cincinnati Reds
Top Tier: CJ Edwards, Clint Coulter, Kevin Plawecki, Ian Clarkin, JaCoby Jones
Player to Watch: Phil Ervin and Tyrell Jenkins. I lump them together partly because I couldn't decide on one, partly because they're in a similar spot. Jenkins is nasty when healthy, but hasn't been healthy. He's looked solid since coming back in a small sample. Ervin disappointed this year, but battled wrist issues all season long. An offseason to recover might be all he needs.
The system: Now we start to get into the very deep systems. Minor leaguers haven't been able to figure out Edwards's diving fastball, so his first test could come in the majors. Coulter is moving to RF this offseason, and Plawecki might be moving as well, although he improved behind the plate from what I've read. Jones could be a nice option at short offering power and some speed, but his contact issues could get exposed as he moves up to the advanced levels. Clarkin could be a nice piece as well. Reds has accumulated a nice collection of talent, and a lot of questions will be answered next year. This is another system that will explode with a year of good production. But right now it ranks behind some others due to Edwards being the only real top level talent. That could change soon though. I've jumped this system 4 spots since I started writing this section. There's just too much that could go right in this farm in '15.
8: Toronto Blue Jays
Top Tier: Maikel Franco, Luis Severino, Tyler Marlette, Albert Almora, Austin Wilson, Yorman Rodriguez
Player to Watch: Kodi Medieros has a special arm from the left side. His numbers are always going to be slightly worse through the minors because he's never going to get a borderline strike call, and runners are going to advance all over him due to passed balls and catchers struggling to receive him. If you want to see an example, check out his predraft footage where Jackson Reetz (a highly regarded defensive catcher) is trying to catch him. He can't. Some whisperings about a bullpen future, but it's too early to assume he can't pick up a changeup. Command of this filth, on the other hand....
The System: I actually don't think this one is that strong at the top, but it's mostly that I don't fully believe in Franco. From what I've read, his strong second half is due to some mechanical fixes. His AAA first half certainly hints at issues. We'll see. Severino is solid, as is Almora. Wilson is capable of being a very nice player, and RF is kind of a tough position to fill. Rodriguez really took off this season, and my super secret scouting sources tell me everything clicked for him when he stopped closing his eyes while swinging. Time will tell if this new "eyes open" approach to hitting will work. Jays grabbed a lot of young latin talent recently, and I think of the group Mikie Edie might be the best....including Eloy Jimenez. It's short season, blah, blah, but he was very solid. There are also a lot of low level arms with a lot of potential such as Gohara, Gonsalves, Thorpe, and Medieros. Osuna looks solid in his TJ recovery outings and is bringing a big fastball. Asher is an unheralded guy, but keeps getting outs and reports on his stuff is good also. He may not stay unheralded long.
7. Milwaukee Brewers
Top Tier: Ryan McMahon, Michael Conforto, Stephen Souza, Mark Appel, Nomar Mazara
Player to watch: Casey Meisner. He's a long-levered guy, and they tend to have an issue with mechanics, and even once they get it ironed out repetition is a problem. This leads to command/control issues. Meisner doesn't seem to have these issues. Everything I read is positive, and as he fills out he should put on some MPH. I think he's a guy that can take off soon.
The system: McMahon is similar to Tapia in that he's got some big home/road splits. The difference is his power didn't vanish on the road. Conforto is solid, and we'll have to wait to judge him until he gets to the advanced levels. A-ball shouldn't challenge him. Souza is a late bloomer that I really like. It's too bad a guy like Denard Span is blocking him. Mazara broke out in a big way, and there's probably more to come. A big season next year should vault him into the elite prospect range. The Astros did very little right last year, but bringing Appel in for a tune-up then promotion was definitely the right move. He was the guy he was expected to be when drafted in AA. I don't think he's an ace, but a 2 starter is still a nice outcome. The rest of the farm is solid, and he picked up a lot of solid depth in the draft last season. This is a very similar system to the Jays, but I just like Appel/McMahon/Mazara more than the top of the Jays system.
6: Kansas City Royals
Top Tier: Corey Seager, Tyler Glasnow, Raul Mondesi, Alex Reyes, Dilson Herrera
Player to Watch: When Lewis Brinson came out in the draft, he easily had the best toolset in the class. He also happened to employ Yorman Rodriguez's "eyes closed" approach to hitting for his first couple seasons. In '14 he got his K rate somewhere manageable, and smashed low-A ball. High A was a bit of a struggle, but started to adjust at the end of the year. He's a true CF with big power and speed, and if he can make strides with his contact he's a guy that can take off.
The System: Seager and Glasnow are obvious headliners. Seager is probably a top 10 prospect overall, and there are whispers that a move off SS aren't as imminent as previously thought. Even as a 3B he carries a big stick. Glasnow by this time next year could be battling Giolito as the top RHP prospect in baseball. AA will be interesting, as he does have command issues, but his stuff is good enough that he may not get challenged until AAA or MLB. It's easy to dismiss Mondesi's season statline, but considering he's still 5 years younger than the average age of his league makes it easier to swallow. Alex Reyes ironed out his early season BB issues and dominated, and everything clicked for Dilson Herrera as he reached the majors as a 20 year old. Justin Williams, Richard Urena, Chance Cisco, are young bats worth tracking closely, and Christian Walker found his power this season. Reynaldo Lopez and Michael Feliz are high ceiling young arms that will look to build on strong seasons.
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Post by Brewers GM (Marty) on Oct 15, 2014 22:43:43 GMT -5
5: San Diego Padres
Top Tier: Jorge Alfaro, Noah Syndergaard, Jorge Polanco, Hunter Renfroe, Jorge Bonifacio
Player to Watch: Domingo Leyba was a relatively cheap sign for the time that performed well in a late season promotion to A-ball as a 19 year old. He's got strong bat to ball skills, and has shown power and speed. It hasn't translated in the numbers yet, but I think it will. I like Jorge Polanco, and he puts me in the mind of a better version of Polanco.
The System: Looking at it today, I could probably flip-flop the Pads and Royals. There's star power in this system though, in Syndergaard and Alfaro if he ever makes the leap. Hunter Renfro reminds me of a Corey Hart-type producer. Guys like Vogelbach and Polanco should end up as nice contributors as well, but are currently blocked. I don't read much into Polanco's surprise call-up this past season, as he was on the 40 man roster already for Rule V protection purposes. I do think he can be a .290+ BA guy with 10 HR's and 10-15 steals, which is OK if he's not being counted on to be a big part of the offense. Vogelbach is hopelessly blocked and likely will be traded soon. I'd be shocked if the Cubs don't use him to pull a pitcher in the next couple years. Trey Ball struggled quite a bit, but also had some really nice starts sprinkled in. It's way too early to quit on him. Speaking of quitting, Anthony Alford is finally bringing all 5 tools to the baseball field after quitting football. He'll be raw and old for his levels, but he should get slack for that. I like Dom Nunez quite a bit, as well as Marten Gasparini. Both will take some time. I suppose I should mention Nicolino since he's a known name, but I don't see him as more than a back end starter at best. There's a few closer candidates interspersed here also, which has some value. But all in all, if I take time to make an updated list, I see this system as dropping barring several miracles.
4: Minnesota Twins
Top Tier: Carlos Correa, Roman Quinn, Aaron Sanchez, Kyle Zimmer, Mike Foltyniewicz
Player to Watch: LeVon Washington was drafted forever ago. There's not a lot to say here though. He's hit when healthy, and he's never, ever, ever, ever healthy. I think that if he gets off the trainer's table he can be one of the better top of the order guys in the game. Good speed, gets on base, and can sting a ball. I like him enough that had I ever had trade dealings with the Twins, I never would have mentioned him in this post anywhere and tried to trade for him sometime this offseason.
The System: Any time you can head up a system with the top prospect in baseball, you're going to be strong. Kyle Zimmer is another guy that needs to get out of the trainer's room, but he has 1/2 starter upside. Speaking of upside, Sanchez will either be a lock down closer, or if he can get his control under, er, control, he has that same 1/2 upside. I'm not going to type his name again, but Folty is another that could be a strong starter, but he's more the 2/3 level and more likely looking to be a late inning closer with his perpetual command issues. I don't think he'll be able to fix himself, but he should be productive anyhow. After 2015 is over, Carson Kelly could be the Twins best C prospect. He can hit, but his bat stagnated as he moved off 3B to behind the plate in '14. I think his bat can make him a nice asset even if he goes back to 3B though. Cecchini could be good if he develops some over the fence power, but right now he seems more like a Bill Mueller type of guy. If Roman Quinn can learn to take a pitch, he can take off as a nice BA/OBP/R/SB threat at the top of an order. Mahtook has similar power issues as Cecchini, but hit well this season. Edwin Diaz and Alex Colome and a cast of thousands provide solid pitching depth, and '14 draftees Sam Travis, Alex Blandino, and Mark Zagunis added hitting depth at some difficult to find positions.
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Post by Brewers GM (Marty) on Oct 16, 2014 10:09:07 GMT -5
3: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top Tier: Addison Russell, Joey Gallo, Brandon Nimmo, David Dahl, Greg Bird, Robert Stephenson
Player to Watch: Eddie Rosario was heading to stardom as a Bobby Abreu-style all around monster that plays 2B a couple years ago. He was just OK at AA in a half-season trial in '13, including some subpar defensive effort that had some sending him to the OF. '14 started with a PED suspension, and he struggled in AA all season long. With Jorge Polanco rising as a 2B and Danny Santana manning either SS or the OF next year, Rosario has something to prove this season. He'll likely repeat AA, so we'll see how he responds. Time off after struggling may do him some good.
The System: There's a lot to like here. Gallo might be one of the most entertaining prospects to own, and he's similar to Chris Davis. His type of power is increasingly rare post-steroid era. Nimmo looks to be a top of the order type, and Dahl looks to have regained some prospect shine this past season. Greg Bird flies (ha) under the radar, but unlike most young power hitters, he needs to get more aggressive, not less. He seems to decide whether to swing or not before the pitch is delivered, rather than seeing if it's hittable. At least that's an easy fix, hopefully. Addison Russell is a nice option at SS, though I see him as kind of a JJ Hardy producer rather than superstar level. .270 and 20 HR's seems about right for him, which is nice if he can get unblocked. For the bad news, Stephenson struggled again at AA, this time for the full season. His stuff is still there, but who knows....sometimes when this happens it's just the Reds forcing him to work on pitches and he's predictable because of that. On top of that, if it's a pitch he's working on, it's probably not that good. I'm concerned, but not terribly. Also on that front, Tyler Kolek's fastball was down to 91-93 this summer and he got hit. It easily could be just a tired arm or the Marlins telling him to dial it back after a long HS and All Star Circuit season. Again, not super concerned. Trevor May came back in a big way this season, as he FINALLY figured out where the strike zone is located. Pitching with your eyes closed must not work much better than hitting. Kyle Schwarber is at least going to get a shot at sticking at C, where he should be a plus, plus bat. If not, he's headed to LF where he faces a lot more competition, and his bat is no longer elite. Hedges is a classic example of a guy who will be much more valuable in real life. He has a special glove, but he can't hit for shit. I could have also slotted in Alex Meyer, Jose Berrios, and Brady Aiken (crazy stuff there) into the top tier, but these last three systems are all like that, and if you want a list of the system, it's on the master sheet.
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Post by Brewers GM (Marty) on Oct 17, 2014 17:34:02 GMT -5
2: Boston Red Sox
Top Tier: Kris Bryant, Joc Pederson, Carlos Rodon, Austin Meadows, Billy McKinney
Player to Watch: Clint Frazier was a heralded draft pick and for good reason. He had it all...nice athlete, elite bat speed, can run a bit, bushy red hair that stuck out from under his helmet. He looked like a guy who could hit 70 HR's and steal 60 bases, provided he ever hit a single. Then he went out and tried to do it last year and was punished for it. At this point he's really struggling to touch anything on the outer half because he's pulling off. Better to fail now and fix it rather than crushing your way to the majors, get exposed, then have no tools for dealing with failure. I think he figures it out next season, and if he does he should end up with a nice career. He's not a guy who has to sell out to pull for power.
The system: Thank god I've only got one more after this. Anyhow, just take a look at the guys that graduated from this system, then look at how much more is left. This is basically his 2013 farm with the top chopped off and it's still talented and deep. Kris Bryant is an elite fantasy prospect, providing elite power in a time when it's getting rare. Pederson likely won't stand out in any one category, but he puts me in the mind of an all around Bobby Abreu...perhaps not the insane OBP's, but that 20 HR/20 SB with more in his prime hitting mid-lineup. Rodon will be the best LHP prospect come June, barring his breaking camp with the MLB squad. Ciuffo and McGuire form a nice catching 1-2, and even better they likely will stick at the position. Meadows raked again this season after coming back from injury. McKinney is a solid hitter, and he gets depth from breakout candidates Willy Garcia, Cord Sandberg, and Nick Longhi. Most of his prospect pitching graduated, but he still is sitting on Rodon, Nola, Stanek, and Lorenzen. Brian Johnson had a great year in AA, and I read that his stuff surprisingly ticked up this year.
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Post by Brewers GM (Marty) on Oct 17, 2014 19:10:06 GMT -5
1: Chicago Cubs
Top Tier: Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Lucas Giolito, Daniel Norris, Jorge Soler, Franklin Barreto
Player to Watch: Manny Margot has been solidly performing his entire career, always showing a polished approach along with excellent athleticism. He should be able to stick in CF going forward, and has a leadoff profile. He won't do any ridiculous 30 HR/50SB outbursts, but he should be good for a solid 15 hrs, 30 steals, and a high BA/OBP, which is very valuable coming out of the CF slot.
The System: The top of this system is the top of the minors. Sano is going to fall down lists because of TJ surgery, but has a shot to be a power hitting 3B. If not, he'll slot just fine as a 1B. If Buxton can get healthy he can be an elite MLB producer for any position, but is triply valuable with his production coming out of CF. Norris emerged as one of the top LHP's in the minors, and Giolito should be set loose next season now that he's further in his recovery. Soler was great in his September call up. Unlike nearly every other system, there's depth at 1B, with Olson placing 3rd in the MILB HR race, and recent draft picks Cody Bellinger, Casey Gillaspie, and Rowdy Tellez. Olsen frightens me a little bit in that he's already pretty much a three outcome hitter (K, BB, HR). But he did bounce back after a disappointing '13. Bellinger is a favorite of mine, and if he gets to his power he can be a nice hitter. Devers raked last season as a 17 year old, and should skyrocket up lists with a repeat performance in full season ball. Chavis, Albies, and Turner provide nice depth at SS, although all three could move off the position. Albies has the best chance to stay, IMO. Speaking of 1B depth, his OF has a couple more candidates for the position....Josh Bell b/c of the Pirates OF squeeze, and Braxton Davidson who is a large individual. Both will hit fine there. It must be comforting at night to know that after your current OF prospects are gone, that there's another similarly productive wave coming in with Barreto, Jackson, Williams, and Margot. The pitching depth is outstanding also with Gray and Bradley sitting close to the majors, backed up by a cast of thousands that could all be mid-top of rotation depending on how they develop. This one is also primed to keep pumping talent into the MLB roster for the next several years.
The end.
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