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Post by Brewers GM (Marty) on Mar 3, 2016 11:53:40 GMT -5
30: Houston Astros
MLB
Hitting: There isn't a whole lot here. Altherr is a late bloomer that could settle into a more permanent role in the Phillies future. He's starting to turn his tools into skills, although he still has contact issues. Michael Taylor was starting to figure things out last year, displaying power and speed. He's got similar contact issues which will limit his BA contributions. He got squeezed out of a full time job this offseason in Washington. Rajai Davis is a solid speed option, but is a platoon bat. He's only controlled this year, however Altherr and Taylor are controlled for another 6 and 5 years. On the farm, Starling is another toolsy late bloomer that should get opportunities to figure out the bat thanks to his CF defense. Greg Bird will miss 2016, but should be a nice slugging 1B if healthy. Peter O'Brien could be a nice bat as well, but he's on an NL team and can't play a bit of defense. Alen Hanson could find a utility role someday. This offense will steal SB's some weeks, but otherwise won't do much for a few years.
2017 Update: Astros added Edwin Encarnacion, but if he's around beyond May 3rd it's going to be an upset. Altherr disappointed, and now faces an uphill battle for a full time job. Greg Bird returns but is looking at a platoon situation this year. Davis was dealt at the deadline. Alen Hanson could see some time this year in Pittsburgh, and it was confirmed that O'Brien does not own a baseball glove but was traded to the AL and can finally latch on to a full time DH job. On the farm Barreto could get a look this year, as could Austin Meadows and Jorge Bonifacio.
Pitching: There's some pretty bad arms here. Alvarez has good and bad days, but rarely strikes hitters out and relies completely on infield defense. Kendrick and Lohse will be ERA/WHIP killers that don't give K's. The pen may vulture a win or two this season. I have a hard time seeing this staff winning more than a handful of games this season. On the farm, Shipley can be a solid mid-rotation arm. Hader has a lot of potential, but he needs to find a weapon vs. righties. He has 2/3 starter upside if he finds it, but a lefty killing holds specialist even if he doesn't. Dylan Bundy needs to find his stuff. If he doesn't get his velocity back, he's a 3-5 level SP. He's a top of the rotation arm if he does, but it's difficult to see that coming back. This year he'll contribute out of the O's bullpen. Jarlin Garcia could be a back end starter but is more likely a non-leverage bullpen arm, and Jordan Guerrero could help in the pen soon.
2017 Update: Bundy registered 14 starts and was solid overall. Alvarez missed the season and was dealt to the A's where he may not find a rotation spot. Matt Bush was added to the pen and could end up closing at some point. Brock Stewart could possibly earn a rotation spot anywhere but LA, but he's capable of being a solid SP in the future. Like Encarnacion, it will be an upset if Hamels is still on the roster after his trade moratorium ends. On the farm, Josh Hader is a potential frontline SP, but also has a lot of volatility until he harnesses his stuff. Zastryzny looks like he's about to take on Travis Wood's old role with the Cubs.
MILB: Franklin Barreto is the star here. He's probably just on the outside of the 3 year window in my opinion to be written about above. Reese McGuire is a glove first catching prospect, but he will be a full time catcher someday, so there's value in that. Christian Pache is a world away but was one of my favorites in last year's J2 class. Harold Ramirez also has a nice toolset as a prospect, but he's hopelessly blocked right now. Senzatela has a nice arm but is unfortunately a Rockie, which demands a discount in fantasy.
2017 Update: Not much has changed here in a positive way. Reese McGuire and Harold Ramirez both took steps back as prospects and now look like less viable fantasy options than they did a year ago. Riley Pint and Jason Groome were very nice draft picks with big ceilings. Dylan Cousins took a step forward with his power, but other Phillies prospects have made huge power jumps at AA Reading and flamed out. AAA will be a big indicator for him. A trade for Austin Meadows helped what remains a pretty thin farm.
Cap: There aren't any players here. He pays 3.1M and 3.85M in release fees in '17 and '18. There are only 5M in outside commitments next season. The cap situation is the healthiest part of the organization right now.
2017 Update: There's not really any gap commitments outside of the FA's he signed to trade. He'll have to pay them down this year and next, but the rules keep him from committing to anyone beyond 2018. He'll have a ton of cash going forward after those trades happen.
Management and Summary: It was a close call between the Astros and about 3 other teams. Ultimately, I'm just not sold enough on what is currently in the majors, and what's in the minors behind Barreto isn't going to be a championship foundation. There obviously will be cap to supplement with free agents, but if I'm remembering correctly the kind of FA's that are targeted by this organization tend to be the bargain types rather than the elite players. I also don't believe that this farm in its current state is going to churn out enough talent to where 1-2 elite FA's will make a difference. I'm also not sure that Altherr and Taylor can be big enough trade pieces to generate that kind of depth via trade.
2017 Update: No owner change last year. The near-term future of this franchise is going to hinge on the returns on the FA's he signed this past offseason.
Why he’s here: I’ll just say this once and refer to it in the next several rebuilder blurbs, but you have to be able to account for prospect failure. This is just the start of a rebuild process, but as it stands there isn’t enough prospect depth to assume it’s going to turn out well. There’s barely enough MLB caliber prospects to field a roster in 4 years. And it’s certainly not going to compete before then with a 2 man offense. He’s here behind the other rebuilders mainly because I do not feel like the best prospects on this team match up with those directly above him that have similar depth.
29: Colorado Rockies
MLB:
Hitting: This team doesn't have much interesting going on in the majors on offense now. It's hard to picture any of these guys getting any MLB time this year outside of short bursts. Craig has an extension that almost certainly won't be picked up, and the others are controlled for a while. But they're not the kind of guys that need to be controlled. On the farm, Mondesi is waiting until Alcides Escobar is out of time in KC. He has the glove for SS, but I have a feeling that they may shift him to either CF or 2B if his bat breaks out. Susac is stuck behind the best C in the game, but if given full time I think he'd be a nice option. Aaron Judge, Brandon Nimmo, Gavin Cecchini, and Brett Phillips could take up spots in 2017/early 2018.
2017 Update: Quite a difference a year makes. A new owner was brought in and after mortgaging the future for the present before FA's, he managed to purchase a contender. He should have a well-rounded offense as long as he can continue to keep salaries managed under the cap. He made a lot of trades for veterans as well as FA purchases. It's not a 1 year wonder team. When Wright gets hurt he'll not have a 3B which in the NL will be a problem. Gavin Cecchini should see some time this year somewhere, but he's no longer looking like a long term SS option.
Pitching: This is equally barren. Kahnle could score a few holds if his control picks up, maybe Joba too. Again, there's not much value to the control that he has with these guys, but it's there. He may sneak holds against a team that isn't fortunate enough to get any at the same time Kahnle ends up getting one. On the farm, Julio Urias is the jewel. He'll need innings in AAA, but he could get a chance in '16. Banuelos and Montas could compete for bullpen spots this year and next.
2017 Update: Read what happened on offense. Leveraged a solid-ish farm and half the 2017 draft's 1st round into a roster. Urias is out. There's no true ace on this pitching staff right now, but it's not unreasonable to think that this rotation can't take categories from anyone in 2017. The bullpen is a strong point, and will help deflate the rate stats that the rotation generates. The farm isn't going to help much outside of maybe Binford and Banuelos contributing bullpen innings.
MILB: Probably his three best options for long term impact are a part of the 2017 draft class. Right now Connor Jones is projecting to go in the top 10 picks. Boldt and Skoug rank fairly highly in the college class and can move up with big seasons. Keith Law loves Kevin Newman for some reason, and I think that Adrian Rondon figures it out and becomes a top prospect. Matuella is the most interesting deep minors arm right now. Justin Hooper is a freshman at UCLA, but he has a ton of potential as well if he can harness his lanky-ass frame.
2017 Update: Well, Boldt is still here otherwise disregard his 2016 blurb. But outside of Gatewood (If he gets his 99% K-rate harnessed) there's not a potential fantasy impact player left in this farm both long and short term.
Cap: There aren't any MLB salaries to speak of, but there are already 75M in outside commitments/release fees in 2017. There still won't be any salary to deal with in 2018.
2017 Update: He's going to have to manage his cap carefully to maintain this roster beyond next season. There's not a lot of ARB here, but most of his rebuild was done through FA's, and before any possible extensions he's at 180M in 2019.
Summary and Management: There is literally nothing in the majors here, but a couple things propel the Rockies past the Astros. The main one being that his farm is deeper and closer to contributing in meaningful ways. Otherwise everything that I said about the Astros can be said here. It's a better situation, but it's still not in a position to compete with what is in place. The main difference is that the impact talent is already in the farm and depth pieces are what he needs to acquire, which is easier to do.
2017 Update: Ownership changed before free agency in 2017. A heavy commitment to higher priced veterans at the expense of what could have been an upper tier farm after the 2017 draft leaves the long-term viability in doubt. However with this roster's construction for the next two seasons it won't be an easy win. Time will tell if the new owner can make the transition to a rebuild after this roster becomes too expensive to maintain.
Why he’s here: There’s slightly more depth than Astros here, but it’s extremely top heavy in Urias and Phillips.
Otherwise, read the depth thing above.
28: Oakland A's
MLB:
Hitting: Zack Cozart started to flash some bat last season for two months before going down with an injury for the season. Danny Espinosa is holding down SS until the Nats decide Trea Turner is ready. I don't know that either are real long term options, but neither are controlled beyond 2017. Zimmer, Bregman, and Almora are the closest offensive players to the big leagues. Zimmer should be a nice player, but Almora has some warts to work out offensively to avoid becoming a 4/5th OF, and Bregman needs to find a position on the MI for some team before he can be valuable.
2017 Update: Nothing really changed here. Espinosa and Cozart are out. Aaron Judge is in. Bregman looks ready to hold down 3B going forward. Mondesi is going to get forced into the 2B job. Zimmer, Alfaro, could help in 2017.
Pitching: There's nothing on the MLB roster. Maybe Thayer can pick up some holds as a specialist. On the farm, Michael Feliz and CJ Edwards profile best as a late inning pen options, and if healthy Kyle Zimmer can be a front of the rotation option someday. Shoulders are scary though.
2017 Update: There's not much here still. Michael Feliz is a strong bullpen arm, as is CJ Edwards. Otherwise it's hard to see this team regularly making the 10 ip minimum this year. Kyle Zimmer is a mystery right now, but looks healthy this spring so far. However he's got a lot to prove to get to being a front of a rotation arm. Kyle Crick could also see some bullpen innings in SF.
MILB: It's not a deep farm, but Wall, Albies, Sosa, Plummer, Harvey, Adams, and Honeywell can all end up being impact players. Bickford has shown a very live arm when throwing out of the bullpen and can be yet another option for saves.
2017 Update: Albies and Honeywell are gone. Bickford is looking at a 50 game suspension. Plummer was hurt most of the year, as was Harvey. He drafted some nice players last year in Taylor Trammell, TJ Zeuch, Delvin Perez, and and Ben Rortvedt. Right now I don't know that there's enough depth in the farm to feel secure despite some very nice prospects.
Cap: The recent dump of Joe Mauer helps his cap situation immensely for the short term. He only has 1M in release fees to contend with beyond 2016, and no MLB roster to pay after 2017 aside from guys that graduate from his minors. He's in roughly the same cap situation as the Angels, which is strong.
2017 Update: What salary?
Summary and Management: There's not much different here than Rockies or Astros, but once again depth is going to win out. There are options that are all on a similar timeline that should get to the majors at the same time to form a nice core if they all work out. There's a rotation in there, and players with talent at most positions. This org has shown that it will explore any avenue to acquire a player when the time is right, including more expensive FA's or taking on a big contract on the right player in trade.
2017 Update: Everything here still applies. He's a solid drafter at this point and he's got some picks again early in the draft. I don't know that there's any way for him to acquire the prospect depth that a rebuild needs to deal with injury/performance attrition though.
Why he’s here: Depth thing again. I have him ahead of the Rockies and Astros because I feel more certain that there’s an MLB roster in here somewhere in the next 3-5 years than those behind him. Plus he still has two pieces that I’m pretty certain will be moved by midseason for more prospects to fill in. This is the best of the shallow rebuilding rosters.
27: Los Angeles Dodgers
MLB:
Hitting: There are some interesting support pieces, but there's just no stud that can carry this offense to where it can get close to competing with even the middling teams. Kang and Gattis are nice players, especially with Kang qualifying at SS. Desmond Jennings is the best OF eligible in 2016, and that says a lot. VMart could bounce back and provide trade value midseason. Honestly, Villar getting the starting SS job in Milwaukee possibly makes him the most interesting player on the roster. He's the only guy that can provide SB's, and his bat isn't punchless. Flores is an OK option, but he's waiting on an injury in the Mets infield. Unfortunately, now we talk about control and the farm. The good news is that Kang is on a nice contract until 2019. The bad news is that JJ Hardy is on a bad contract until 2018. Jennings is the closest thing to something he'll miss that expires before them, and he's out after this year. Vmart is also done after 2016.
2017 Update: We picked up a new owner right after the 2016 season. He never chats. Right now even though it's a full 40 man roster I don't know that he has enough to do anything but finish last. It's weird. Ellsbury will be his best player by miles and that's saying a lot. The positive being that Chance Sisco, Hunter Dozier will be up this year to give him players that aren't the last guy off the bench or mired in AAAA hell. Oh, and Gallo, but who knows if he'll ever make enough contact to be useful.
Pitching: Matt Moore is controlled for a while, but needs to pitch to his pre-injury potential. Outside of Mike Leake, every pitcher who can be expected to make a rotation at some point this year was hurt in 2015. This might be a 3 man rotation until May or June when Bailey gets cleared. Leake and Sanchez are solid, Moore can be very good. One good break the Dodgers picked up is that JJ Hoover is slated to be the favorite to close in Cincy. Leake and Bailey are controlled through 2020, and Moore through 2019 if the extension is picked up. There aren't really any significant losses in the next couple years, but there won't be much left either. He has Sam Dyson in his MILB who took over a late inning setup role in Texas last season.
2017 Update: Same thing I said about the offense applies here. It's a collection of 5th SP's and long bullpen arms. Who knows what Zack Wheeler is ever going to give? The pen isn't much better. Pretty much every MLB'er mentioned above is gone. There's some hope for 2017 in Michael Kopech and German Marquez.
MILB: Did I mention Sam Dyson?
2017 Update: This is kinda/sorta a bright spot relatively speaking to the health of the rest of this franchise. Offense is still thin with just Naylor and maybe Daz Cameron as potential impact bats. Logan Shore is capable of being a solid 3-5 SP someday.
Cap: There's only 67M committed next year so far before arbitration raises, but I wouldn't expect many to go more than 1M. The rougher news is that as his players start to expire, his salary numbers don't dwindle with them thanks to most of his long term players are locked into FA contracts and extensions rather than owning scale guys. He's also tacking on 8M and 3M respectively in 2017/18 in release penalties.
2017 Update: Most of this roster is releasable scale players so cap impact is potentially minimal after Ellsbury expires.
Summary and Management: The biggest problem is that this team needs to win now or at least very soon, and it just doesn't have the firepower to even compete for a wild card. There is enough team control here that's not incredibly expensive that with a few savvy tear down trades he could build a start on a minors, or at the least grab a couple of cheaper supporting pieces so that he could spend in FA's to get an elite talent. The cap could be there to do that. However this hasn't been the most active organization, and it hasn't been all that willing to take on younger unproven talent.
2017 Update: The current Dodgers manager came in mid-2016. It's a mystery to me whether there's a plan for this roster, but there's not enough prospect depth to get it into contention, and while the MLB roster is deep looking, there's almost nothing here that will be missed if the whole group is just released.
Why he’s here: There obviously is no farm and there obviously is no chance this team will get a playoff spot. What I do see here is a lot of potential trade chips to get younger should he decide to use them. He’s never been the most willing trader, so that strategy may not mesh with management, but a long term and cheaply controlled Matt Moore, Kang, and a 1 year rental of a healthy VMart could bring back a good amount. Probably nothing elite, but a couple good trades of his MLB roster to a contender in need could work wonders.
26: Atlanta Braves
MLB:
Hitting: David Ortiz in his final MLB season is easily the best hitter on the roster. For having a 34 player 40-man roster, there's not much else here. A bunch of guys that are just in the high minors, and a lot of platoon/part time players. With Ortiz he'll sneak some categories just because his blazing hot weeks won't be watered down. Some longer term options saw their value drop this offseason, mainly Trey Mancini (Chris Davis signing) and Rob Refsnyder (Castro trade). Any veterans that are on the roster will be gone in 2 years, namely Ethier, Jay, Morrison, Freese. However none will be monster contributors. The depth will let him beat blank teams soundly on offense, but won't do anything but maybe steal a category or two vs. middling rosters. The minors may not be much help in the 1-3 year term outside of those names either. O'Conner has a ton of power and a ton of problems getting to it. If he figures it out, he's capable of being a really nice fantasy C. Travis Jankowski can be a good source of SB/R if he gets the full time job in SD, and Benintendi has a skillset that will let him fly through the minors. He won't be challenged until AA/AAA.
2017 Update: Benintendi flew through the minors as he was pretty much unchallenged even in his short MLB stint. He looks like a stud. Outside of that not a lot changed on the MLB front on offense. It's a lot of low priced FA's around Benintendi. Mancini again had his road to full time AB's cut by the O's. Hernan Perez broke out last season and is a valuable utility player. Paul DeJong, Harrison Bader, and Nick Senzel could be up in 2017 to help fill out the roster.
Pitching: Everything I said above applies here as well. Vincent Velazquez is very interesting and could win a job at the 5th starter in Philly's rotation. Colby Lewis and Jon Niese will provide some blah innings and also won't be around in 2 seasons. There are a couple guys in the pen that will get holds, but again most will be gone by the end of 2017. In the 1-3 year time frame, he can expect Luke Weaver and Cody Ponce (if his control holds up) to help. Probably more likely closer to three years though.
2017 Update: VV is gone, but FA's Zach Britton and Jeff Sjmardzija were added to bolster the pitching staff this offseason. Trades for Lance Lynn and Tyler Skaggs also add depth. Luke Weaver looks to take on a bigger role this year in the rotation, and there's some bullpen arms that could make 2017 debuts.
MILB: There's precious little impact talent right now in the system. On offense, Demi Orimoloye is very raw but extremely tooled-up. If he develops skills to match, he could be a monster. Paul DeJong is another that I think can be a strong fantasy asset. Erick Jenkins also has a long way to go, but is a very good athlete. Beyond that, there are a lot of tweener OF's and utility profile infielders. Once again, the pitching is kind of the same boat. However I don't see the upside play in the pitching group for the deeper minors. There are a lot of bullpen options and 3-5 starters here. Not awful to have, since it's better to fill those depth spots cheaply, but a couple potential frontline starters are necessary to win.
2017 Update: Not a lot changed. Nate Kirby lost a year last year but will get his full season debut this year. Cody Ponce looks further away than I thought. Eloy Jimenez is the real gem of the farm right now and looks like an elite prospect. JJ Schwarz is one of the best C prospects in this year's draft. A lot of higher ceiling talent was added through IFA's and the 2016 draft.
Cap: Cap is not a problem. There are no FA signings that are both long term and crippling. This is not a contending roster, so if I had to guess I'd say that few of the current 2-year FA contracts will even be on the roster in 9 months. After 2016 there are no release penalties or other cap payment commitments outside of the MLB roster.
2017 Update: Cap is still not a problem, although Britton and Shark represent two larger financial commitments that were added this offseason.
Management and Summary: There are a lot of options for selling off from the current MLB roster, although none will bring in the kind of prospects that this system needs. Benintendi is a potential top fantasy option, but as it stands this roster is going to need some help if it’s to ascend to championship level in the coming years. It has a lot of cap, but signing an impact talent in FA’s doesn’t look like an avenue this organization will take. This one is going to need to be assembled through the draft and trades.
2017 Update: Same manager as last year, and Wood looks to be staying the slow but steady course. Another good draft and a solid year of development will take this roster a long way towards figuring out if this rebuild will work out.
Why he’s here: There’s a semblance of an MLB roster that provides trade chips, and there are a lot of players in the minors. It’s mostly depth types rather than a group offensive or pitching anchors, which is why this is the last of the deep minors rebuilders. This roster can handle prospect attrition, and that’s the reason it’s ahead of the shallower minors that may have more impact players.
25: Los Angeles Angels
MLB:
Hitting: There are a couple of somewhat interesting guys here, as Ketel Marte and Delino DeShields should manage to steal some categories from teams this season. The minors offer AJ Reed as another long term fill-in as well. This MLB roster will slowly fill in as his minors graduate, but it's still at least 3 years from being viable.
2017 Update: Marte and DeShields are gone, and AJ Reed disappointed and looks to have lost his time to Yuli Gurriel in Houston. Yunel Escobar is still on the roster and is OK somewhat, but that's it unless Reed takes a step forward. Richard Urena, Rhys Hoskins, and Brett Phillips could make 2017 debuts and help fill in.
Pitching: Chi Chi Rodriguez is sort of interesting in that Justin Nicolino type of guy that can be effective without ever striking anyone out. That makes him a 5 starter for fantasy purposes, unfortunately. There's also not much on the near horizon in terms of impact either, as Clayton Blackburn, Nick Tropeano, and a couple others profile best as back end guys.
2017 Update: These guys are a lot less interesting than they were 12 months ago. Tropeano is gone. The rotation and pen have like 20 guys, but could still struggle to get enough usage to get much over the IP mins. There's not much near-term help on the farm for the rotation, but guys like Lucas Sims can fill in the pen with impact arms.
MILB: This is more interesting. There's a lot of high ceiling options that are 3+ years away from being impactful, but they should be fun to watch develop. There is a potential impact player or two at most positions. I don't want to run down the whole list, but this is the true core of this organization.
2017 Update: Well, a few of the impact guys are gone. Right now there's 91 prospects and each position has some depth and potential impact. Matt Manning could be special, and Brandon Rodgers leads the offense. He'll be able to fill in through the 2017 draft as well. A good year of development for his MILB will be very helpful for the health of this franchise.
Cap: He pretty much has infinity money to work with. A few tiny FA signings to get a legal roster that are short term, then filling in with cheap pre-arb and arb players for the foreseeable future.
2017 Update: He has money flying out his ass indefinitely.
Summary and Management: This team is the first of the rebuilders to feature enough prospect depth to where he can absorb some attrition to injury or players just not making it to their potential. It probably has a higher impact level than some that will follow, but they’re so far away. The OF is a little thin, but his guys are so far away some position shifting will happen off the infield to fill in. This organization has been filled mostly through the draft. He’ll have assets to trade to fill in as necessary, but it’s not something that’s been done by this owner.
Why he’s here: This roster is very similar to the rest of this next group of rebuilders, but it has already graduated some guys to the majors. They are more of the contributor type than elite, but still valuable. It also has more talent that is closer to the majors than the teams behind it. The impact here is in the lower minors is further off than the rebuilding teams ahead of it.
2017 Update: We went through 2 owners this past year. The The farm is weaker than it was, but there's still a lot of potential impact talent. The original manager when this was written was committed to the draft. The owner after him reshuffled and made a couple of damaging deals to the farm, but wasn't active enough to really do damage. The current owner seems to be carrying on with the development trend, but most of his deals have been on the smaller side. Time will tell I suppose.
24: Cleveland Indians
MLB:
Hitting: This is a solid lineup for the most parts, however it does have holes at SS, 1B, and LF. Losing Longoria at the end of 2016 will create a hole at 3B, and barring an extension he'll also lose Reddick in RF. Cano, Swihart, and Adam Jones are locked in for at least another 3 years, although Jones and Cano are on expensive contracts. There's not a significant contributor for steals, and I have to guess that because of all the holes in the lineup that winning the other accumulator stats on offense consistently could also be a struggle despite the talent in the spots that do have players. There's no immediate help coming to fill the lineup gaps from the high minors. This lineup will beat up on the weaker teams in the AL, but will struggle to beat even the mid-tier rosters.
2017 Update: Not much changed here, although the offense improved. Cano bounced back, as did Longo. Aledmys Diaz broke out, and he acquired Miggy. The defections happened and now his OF is pretty thin. He did pick up Heyward, but he needs a huge bounceback after being horrible last year. The offense if healthy is thin overall but is improved over 2016.
Pitching: Scherzer is a legit ace that will be around for another 3 years, and Verlander showed signs last season of learning how to pitch without a 100 mph fastball. Rubby is in competition for a rotation spot, and Owens is likely to start the season in AAA. Workman is a RP at this point. Miguel Gonzalez shows signs of being OK, but he's more of a 5 starter for fantasy purposes. The bullpen doesn't have much in the way of saves or holds in it that I can see, either now or going forward. Even if Scherzer and Verlander can pitch like aces, I don't see enough depth here to win anything but WHIP/ERA against any team that's not rebuilding. Any team that faces Verlander/Scherzer in the weeks where they make 4 starts combined can just count themselves unlucky. Hunter Strickland will help soon in providing holds and maybe saves in the near future. Henry Owens could contribute soon if he finds space in a crowded Red Sox rotation.
2017 Update: This is a true stud(s?) and scrub rotation. Scherzer is still here. Verlander isn't and was replace with Felix. That's kind of it. Rubby is looking at pen duty. Jared Weaver was a FA signing, but he hurts more than helps at this point. Owens didn't do anything to earn a spot, and looks to have no chance this year. The pen won't add much to this group either.
MILB: How did Austin Riley get here? He's it for any real impact potential in the low minors. Pat Light could be a bullpen contributor someday.
2017 Update: Riley and Light are gone. Not that Light did anything.
Cap: This is a problem. He's going to have to work to pay down contracts to stay under cap after 2016, as he already has 105M in salary commitments before arbitration raises. Longoria, Morneau,(assuming he plays) and Reddick expire after the season, and he also has 5.5M in release penalties in 2017. He also has almost 90 committed to 2018 salaries. Beyond that, the huge contracts of Jones, Scherzer, and Cano all expire which will free up cap. With no picks, almost no prospects, and very few controlled young players past that point, he's going to be faced with rebuilding his entire 25/40 man roster through FA's. Never an easy chore.
2017 Update: Same shit, different day. He'll get some big contracts to expire after 2018 at least.
Summary and Management: This is the first spot where I really have to balance a decent MLB roster that has to win now vs. having zero farm. If things break extremely right, this is a team that could contend for an AL wild card. It’s not an organization that actively trades, and tends to go aggressively after FA’s. Unfortunately, it won’t have the cap to sign the impact FA’s that this organization will need to compete.
2017 Update: No changes at the top. Zach still builds an expensive MLB team with no minors and he's kept it together through the sale of picks.
Why he’s here: This roster is probably a lot better than a lot of teams ahead of it for 2016. The problem is going to be next year when he’s already a long way over cap and has main pieces expiring. There’s no minors, and it’s facing a steep uphill battle for the playoffs. He’s ahead of the teams to this point because of a fairly strong MLB roster, but he’s behind everyone else because it’s not a championship roster and it’s going to be very difficult for a team that doesn’t trade to move these contracts for any kind of value.
23: New York Yankees
MLB:
Hitting: Matt Duffy is the highlight here as his 3B going forward. He'll never be a big power, R, or RBI contributor just from where he lands in lineups, but he'll be solid. Shaw flashed a nice bat last year, as did Pham but both are blocked right now in terms of getting a full season's worth of AB's. There isn't a lot of near term impact on the way either beyond Max Kepler and probably Willy Adames. Hoskins and Travis both have tough profiles, but also have decent bats. Alex Blandino is also capable of being solid and moving quickly through the Reds org.
2017 Update: Not much changed outside of some progression. Hoskins is now gone. The MLB offense is still thin on guys with full time jobs. There's myriad options of guys I could list that could debut in 2017 at nearly every position. Probably the benefit of maintaining 400 MiLB'ers.
Pitching: Tyler Duffey showed a nice potential to be a solid 3-5 SP. Colin Rea could be an OK option in time as well. Chad Bettis was recently traded for and will provide a few more decent innings for the rotation. That's about it for current MLB in both the pen and rotation. However arms like Blake Snell, Francis Martes, Musgrove, and Davies could be nice contributors in the next 1-3 years.
2017 Update: Snell, Musgrove, and Davies had nice 2016 debuts. He surrounded them with cheap back end SP options for depth. The pen is thin on holds/saves but should contribute good innings. Again, there's a ton of names that could fill in this year, Martes being the big name.
MILB: This org is probably the deepest in the league. There's both potential impact and depth in the low minors, depending on how they develop. But with 100+ prospects in the system you'd be crazy to think that at least 2-5 won't end up being impact prospects/MLB either in the rotation or bullpen.
2017 Update: If anything it got deeper after owning 50 draft picks. Lots of potential impact MLB and depth.
Cap: When you don't have any FA's and barely field an MLB roster (only one of which makes over 1M) that is all pre-arbitration and arb, you have all the cap in the world. All of his non-salary commitments vanish after next year, not that it mattered at ~20M in '17. This roster will have the most cap space available to it for the foreseeable future.
2017 Update: Yet another thing that didn't change. Eventually these guys will hit arbitration. Someday.
Management and Summary: There are some very solid guys that will be coming in the next few years. This is the deepest organization in the minors, but is there serious fantasy impact in there? Right now it remains to be seen beyond a few guys. The Angels currently have more high level fantasy potential guys in their farm, but the depth and proximity of the group that the Yankees have put him slightly ahead. On top of that, after some rocky ownership for the last 4 years, it seems to have stabilized through a good draft class and some nice prospect trades to fill out the farm. There are some MLB assets, and the Yankees have shown more willingness to make trades than some teams behind them in these rankings. I would also expect some very solid additions through IFA bidding this July.
2017 Update: No ownership or philosophy change. He acquires pick after pick after pick after pick after pick after pick after pick after pick after pick after pick after pick after pick after pick after pick, etc. Then takes a player with all of them.
Why he’s here: Short and sweet here: He’s got a better farm than Braves, but the bulk of his talent doesn’t have the proximity that the Jays’ farm does. Also, of the MLB’ers I consider his core, I prefer what the Jays have for fantasy.
22: Toronto Blue Jays
MLB:
Hitting: There's not much that's currently on the MLB roster. A lot of it will be gone soon, not that it will be missed. Kolten Wong is controlled cheaply until 2019, and Odubel Herrera until 2020. I'd guess that neither are significant contributors. The short term pipeline should provide some help in Winker, perhaps Jake Bauers if the Rays move him quickly. He still has a long way to go if he plans on filling out a lineup this decade. He'll steal the rate stats from time to time, but the only team he's going to beat in any accumulator any time soon is Angels.
2017 Update: Outside of a recent trade for Bogaerts, the bulk of his trades are cash for players, so no surprise that there's no change. Just another development year for this franchise. Herrera is very solid but not a fantasy anchor. Wong struggled a lot last season. FA signing Michael Saunders could be good value. On the farm, Winker still isn't hitting for any power, and Bauers looks to be heading to the OF. Franchy Cordero also moved to the OF and could debut this year after resurrecting his prospect status last year.
Pitching: This one is a little more promising. Severino looks very solid and won't hit FA's until 2021. Glasnow, Manaea, and Hoffman should be strong contributors pretty soon, however it will come at a cost to ERA/WHIP. His bullpen looks solid as long as Osuna can fend off Storen and Garcia and Givens also get promoted to setup/closer roles soon.
2017 Update: Manaea struggled in the first half but pitched great in the 2nd half. Glasnow had an OK debut. Hoffman, Osuna, and Severino were the main casualties in the Bogaerts trade. Gsellman and Tyler Anderson impressed in their debuts last season. Barraclough, and Givens give his pen a solid foundation. Anthony Banda should at least get bullpen time in Arizona this year, possibly more. Otherwise there's not a ton of help coming quickly.
MILB: There's a lot of depth here if he ever feels like trading to supplement. Randolph, Reyes, Fox, and a lot of OF and a good number of high ceiling pitching that are in the low minors. Most of it is going to turn into SP3 or high leverage pen arms, but getting 1 or 2 to pan out to their full potential would be a boon. It's a group that can marinate on his roster for a bit and if inclined sell off to create a solid young MLB core with some good trades.
2017 Update: Randolph had a lost season, and Reyes and Fox struggled. They all have high ceilings and can bounce back. Devers and Vlad Guerrero, Jr. are the studs on the farm at the moment. Yadier Alvarez, Adrian Morejon, and Luiz Gohara give some high ceiling arms to complement.
Cap: Despite barely fielding a roster he's left with 8M in cap for this year thanks to 93M in commitments. However the good news is that all but 9M melt off the books when next offseason starts. He has no long term commitments to salary beyond arbitration or to releases.
2017 Update: He's going to have cash to burn for a while. No real salary commitments going forward.
Management and Summary: This roster has mostly been built off of cash trades, both the purchasing of picks and prospects. I’m putting him slightly ahead of the Yankees just based on the proximity of his prospects. Severino is the start, but with the MILB guys he will have filling in soon this is going to be a nice rotation going forward. It will be a little short on offense unless some trades or signings happen to sync up the offense with the pitching. There is enough prospect depth that he could use to supplement via trade should he decide to do so.
2017 Update: Something, something, The Process.
Why he’s here: I just think proximity ranks him ahead of the mass-minors rebuilders below him, but I prefer what the Cardinals have on the horizon all the way around the diamond. Most of his close talent is pitching, and the offense will be a few years behind.
21: Milwaukee Brewers
MLB:
Hitting: Buxton has a world of potential for fantasy owners, possibly contributing heavily in SB's while also being upper tier in BA, OBP, and R's. He'll probably always hit near the top of the lineup, so RBI's are likely the only below average contribution. Tulowitzki is getting dinged for leaving Coors, but I still think he's going to be an elite producer. As always, health is key with him. There is a logjam in CF, as Pillar also plays there, which will force him either to the bench or a UTIL spot. Hernandez, Castillo, and Olivera are other question marks in the lineup. 1B, LF, and probably C are holes, although Molina can provide some RBI's and BA if healthy. SB's and BA should be OK, however the lineup is short on power. It is also dependent on lineup position for some guys to generate R's. On the farm, Andrew Knapp torched AA, and could be ready quicker than Jorge Alfaro. Cowart and Reynolds could get some MLB AB's if injury strikes, but don't expect much. Meadows is blocked by a young and controlled PIT OF.
2017 Update: Buxton is gone, as are Hernandez, Castillo, Olivera. The much, much better news is that they were upgraded. Paul Goldschmidt now mans 1B, LF is now Justin Upton's, and Molina handles C. Daniel Murphy broke out and if he keeps it up he's a big upgrade over Cesar Hernandez. Adrian Beltre rounds out a very solid infield along with Tulo and the addition of Zack Cozart. His OF has depth and is solid as well. These upgrades came at a cost, as Andrew Knapp and Matt Chapman are what's left of a once solid farm.
Pitching: This certainly is a full pitching staff. There are currently 5 that I'd expect to make rotations out of spring training in Shields, Dickey, Bauer, Wisler, and probably Locke. This is going to be a pretty high WHIP/ERA group, and I'd guess only Shields and Bauer generate many K's. The other potential starters are more long relievers and AAAA guys that will bounce back and forth. The bullpen has 2 sources of saves in Rondon and Vizcaino, and a few holds options in Matusz and Capps. Capps could end up a closer in the short term as well, which will give him 3 controlled closers through 2018. The starting staff is controlled in the short term, as only Dickey will be expired after this year. Wisler, Bauer, and Shields will be controlled through at least 2019. In the minors, Carson Fulmer could move quickly, and Jacob Lindgren should end up helping his pen soon.
2017 Update: Some pretty wholesale changes were made here. He picked up ERod who threw like a top half of the rotation arm in the 2nd half last year. Unfortunately after picking up Sale he's fighting for a rotation spot this spring. A lot of guys on this roster are in the same boat. He's got 13 starters listed but if half earn secure rotation jobs it could be an upset. He'll get some innings out of his pen, not many holds or saves though. There are a few bullpen possibilities in his upper minors, although Gonsalves could crack the Twins rotation at some point.
MILB: The deeper minors are mostly utility type or lower impact talent on offense. Matt Chapman has more potential than that, but he needs to prove his power outside of the Cal League. Tocci is an interesting OF, and he's slowly been progressing. On the pitching side, Alcantara has a big arm, and Kolek still has potential as well. Meisner is also a favorite of mine, and I think he's a solid bet to be a mid-rotation arm. Soroka is another I think will be in that role.
2017 Update: This is where the bigger sacrifice happened to upgrade his MLB roster. Tocci is still around, but that's about it. Littrell, Taylor Ward, Rafael Bautista could be MLB contributors. Alfredo Rodriguez was a Cuban IFA signing that we'll need to see. He was highly regarded and could be an impact bat, but we'll know more this time next year.
Cap: Prior to arbitration raises (and there will be quite a few), the roster stands at 76M in 2017 and 78M in 2018. I'm guesstimating it ends up around 95M. I don't know if I see many extension candidates on the roster, but most of it is controlled through 2019 anyhow. There's another 54M committed in 2019.
2017 Update: He added a lot of fixed salary this offseason, and he'll have a lot of arbitration salary to add to the totals just given the size and general age of his roster. Nothing unmanageable though.
Management and Summary: All in all, this is a solid team that is going to fall short of competing. The farm will help, but I don’t think there’s enough top level talent that will be graduating to the MLB roster soon enough to mesh with the current roster, and it may be too thin to fill everything in on its own. Milwaukee management has always been active in the trade and FA market and is going to have to use those avenues to acquire the necessary pieces.
2017 Update: No management changes in the last year. Still a very solid roster, and the upgrades should help in the standings. I do think the pitching is going to ultimately let him down. His offense is on par with the playoff contenders in the NL, but the pitching lags behind.
Why he’s here: He has some controlled MLB that has talent. It’s not enough to compete, but he does have a couple studs in Tulo and Buxton. There are some upper minors that can come up and help soon, and there’s talent in the lower minors. There’s pieces in the low minors and some MLB trade pieces that can be consolidated if he wants to. I have him below Cards because all of the Cards pieces are going to be arriving around the same time, and it’s going to be fairly soon.
20: St. Louis Cardinals
MLB:
Hitting: This is another rebuilding roster. Urshela got squeezed out of the 3B job in Cleveland, which is a shame because I think he develops a bat if he gets the chance. His glove will give him another shot soon. Beckham could also develop a bat, but he needs to find a defensive home. There is talent that will help fairly soon at the infield positions. Nottingham at C, Dom Smith at 1B, Swanson at SS, and Drury at either 2B or 3B. Possibly Jagielo as well, since the 3B door is wide open in Cincy. OF is another matter entirely, as Mallex Smith and Hunter Renfroe are the only options on the way soon. I don't know that either will provide much impact. Trayce Thompson has impact talent, but he was traded to the wrong org this offseason.
2017 Update: I feel like he makes a lot of trades to not have much change. He added Cervelli and Ben Revere on offense. Most of the guys mentioned last year are still around. Jagielo fell off the map in Cincy and Dom Smith was moved, but otherwise this looks the same. Keon Broxton looks like he's set to have a major breakout season. Renfroe should be an opening day corner OF this year, and Dan Vogelbach should open as a 1B/DH option in Seattle. Ozzie Albies is a new addition who should make his debut this year, as could Greg Allen.
Pitching: Keone Kela is an interesting guy. He will work in the 7th and 8th for Texas this year, and could be auditioning to close in future years. In the minors, Withrow is healthy and could win a spot in Atlanta's pen. If healthy, Taillon could get time in September, possibly arriving for good next season. Mike Clevenger and Adrian Houser are waiting their turns to win jobs in the Cleveland and Milwaukee rotations, respectively.
2017 Update: Kela was moved as was Taillon. Houser had TJ, and Clevenger can't seem to get any momentum in Cleveland. This is still a weak point on the roster. Shelby Miller is a new acquisition and needs a bounceback year. There's some young holds arms in the pen, but no likely closers. On the farm, there are some mid-bottom fantasy rotation types that could debut this year, like Felix Jorge and Kyle Freeland. Kaprielian could debut as well, but I think expecting more than a September start or two is stretching it.
MILB: The low minors has some interesting talent in both pitching and hitting. Jorge Alfaro has a ton of tools, but can't seem to turn them into skills on either side of the ball. Aramis Garcia is another interesting catching option. Dan Vogelbach and Matt Olsen are probably closer to 3 years and could have been mentioned above, but both have things to figure out. Gleyber Torres and Ryan McMahon will form a nice left side of the infield at some point. Magneuris Sierra could someday take over CF and leadoff duties in St. Louis, but he's many, many years away from that.
2017 Update: Some of the bigger names got turned over. Alfaro and Torres are gone. Olsen has struggled in the upper minors with contact. Kyle Tucker, James Kaprielian, Brady Aiken, Grant Holmes, and Nick Gordon are a few of the new names in this list. Overall I think that the depth of the minors improved despite some turnover.
Cap: Another team with no roster and very few salary commitments past 2016. Cap is not a problem here.
2017 Update: Still not a problem.
Management and Summary: This roster might be the closest of the rebuilders. There is no MLB talent to really speak of, but most positions on the farm has at least one potential impact player, perhaps more. The Cardinals have a fairly active owner that will explore the trade market, waivers, and FA’s as needed.
2017 Update: No ownership changes, and it looks like he's staying the course on the rebuild. This roster is getting closer. There are a lot of guys that are going to step into full time roles after platooning last season like Drury and Broxton.
Why he’s here: I’ve mentioned already in other blurbs why he’s in the best spot of the mass-minors rebuilders. I’m most confident that this roster of all of them can contend for at least a playoff spot in the next 3-5 years as it stands right now. I have it below some of the teams here mainly because there is still risk here, while others ahead of this point have young talent in the majors and also some reinforcements coming soon.
19: Seattle Mariners
MLB:
Hitting: Lindor, Seager, Puig, Eaton, and a bounceback from Teixeira last season are the core to a decent offense. Lindor is probably not as good a hitter as his line was last year, but he should still be an above average offensive option at SS. Seager is a year 6 but has an extension in place that will keep him controlled through 2021. Puig will need to bounce back from a dismal season last year, and on the other note Tex had as good a season in 2015 as he's had in a while. He'll need to repeat. The lineup is sparse, but it does have some solid contributors around the board, especially if this core performs. He's short at 2B, C, LF, and won't have a UTIL spot filled. He'll have trouble with the accumulator stats vs. good teams, and none of his regulars outside of Eaton are strong at BA/OBP. He should hold up against middling to weak teams on offense. Dalton Pompey is the lone source of offense in the minors that he can count on at this point. He may have the LF job early in 2016 in Toronto.
2017 Update: Most of this is still here. An investment in Park takes over for Tex's retirement and cap eating contract. Lindor and Seager are joined by Chris Owings, Devon Travis, and Welington Castillo this year to round out the infield. Inciarte joins Eaton in a still thin OF. Puig continued to be a nutcase and is looking at platoon level AB's. Cody Bellinger should be up to help early on in the season to fill out the offense, and there's still some hope for Pompey. Nick Williams could also get a call to help in the OF this year.
Pitching: Syndergaard is the ace of this staff, and is controlled via arbitration through 2020. Cobb should be his number 2, however he will be missing half the season in '16. Smyly when healthy is solid, and Gio Gonzalez should bounce back with a stronger defense behind him this year. There is a little depth here that is also solid. Tomlin goes to FA's after this year, and Smyly will be gone after 2017. Aside from that, the rotation is retained though arbitration, contract extensions, and options. This offseason hit his bullpen hard, as Grilli may not have a closing job, and neither will Miller. Both will accumulate holds and will be next man up if needed to close. Rafael Montero could help in 2016 or 17, and there is a potentially strong bullpen arm in Melotakis.
2017 Update: Lots of turnover here. Thor is no more, Smyly, Gio, Grilli and Montero also found the exit. There's now a lot of names on this list, but no aces. Plenty of back end types nowadays in Cobb, Garza, Leake, Kazmir, Hughes, and Fister. Archie Bradley is a wild card, but his star is dwindling. The pen will get a lot of holds and should help deflate the ERA/WHIP from the rotation. Melotakis is a possible pen option, but outside of that there's nobody pressing for a spot this year.
MILB: Recently purchased Yusniel Diaz is the best prospect in this system by far. How he does this season in his first taste of baseball outside of Cuba will go a long way towards determining his ETA.
2017 Update: Yusniel Diaz is no longer the only prospect in this farm. Mickey Moniak, Armenteros, and Braxton Garrett join him. Beyond that is a dark depressing void.
Cap: Andrew Miller is the only real cap commitment for 2017 outside of the likely to be exercised Kyle Seager extension. Gio Gonzalez has a 12M option in 2018. Beyond that it will be all arbitration. He has no payment commitments or release penalties. He'll have the cash to replenish his roster as the contracts of current players begin to expire after 2017/18.
2017 Update: He'll have room to maneuver with the only contracts beyond 2018 belonging to Park, Leake, and Seager.
Management and Summary: This roster is just too thin to compete with the Rangers for the West title, and there’s going to be a lot of competition for the wild cards out of the Central and East. A lot of this roster is controlled and heading into their primes. He’ll have money to spend in FA’s to supplement either with a star to top it off if the depth is there, or to fill in with complementary players as needed if it’s not. So far the Seattle management seems more aggressive on the FA market than trading, so having cap suits.
2017 Update: New management took over late last year. There's been a few moves, but it's still a thin roster but enough to compete in the west and the AL for a WC spot. The pitching staff really could use a couple of guys that will deflate his WHIP/ERA. He risks losing a lot of games in those categories to rebuilding types, and I'd guess that if he misses the playoffs this is the reason.
Why he’s here: He has a nice young core of impact players already in the majors, so I’m placing him ahead of the mass rebuilders. It’s not enough to truly compete even in the weak AL West, but it still is a great start. He has also been active in FA’s so far, and has a ton of money that he can use to buy players to fill in or take on a big elite FA and not really be hurt financially. He’s behind some of these other teams because top to bottom this is a very thin roster with no major trade pieces to supplement or minors to graduate or move, as the current roster seems to be his strategic core going forward.
18: Washington Nationals
MLB
Hitting: There aren't any real fantasy standouts on offense. Panik is solid, and Piscotty projects to be solid as well. At this point to project much better than solid performance out of Ellsbury is probably also a mistake. His 40 SB days are gone. Wright is an above average 3B when healthy, and even now that he's mostly healthy the Mets are going to plan a lot of extra rest for him. C, 1B, SS (outside of SB), and whichever OF corner Piscotty is not playing will all be lineup holes this year. Yes I know Loney is there. A good chunk of these guys will be controlled through 2018, however Ellsbury and Wright also tie up a lot of salary. Half the current OF will be gone after 2016, but nobody that will be missed. Escobar has a paid down extension through the end of 2017 and provides a small source of SB. In 2016, it's hard to see this offense winning often. Too much will depend on Ellsbury and Wright's health. Depth will hurt the counting stats, and talent will probably harm the rate stats. On the near term, Clint Frazier can provide a lot of pop in the outfield soon, and Jorge Polanco could usurp the SS position in Minnesota soon. He won't be spectacular, but should be a solid all-around contributor.
2017 Update: There's been a lot of turnover here. A new infield and outfield outside of Sal Perez. He's improved the infield quite a bit, as just about anything at all is an improvement over what Panik/Escobar did last year. His OF looks thin, with Piscotty and Ellsbury departing and Duvall, Jose Bautista, and Span moving in. Jorge Polanco looks to be set as the starting SS for the Twins. Red Headed Mike Trout is on the way to fill in the OF this year at some point. There's nobody else close that's useful.
Pitching: This rotation is a collection of fantasy 5-starters. Jimenez, Colon, Lorenzen, and Hellickson just aren't that good and will kill the rate stats without contributing much in the counters. Liriano is solid, and I like Maeda more than a lot of people. But neither are the staff anchor this rotation needs. There are some holds options in the pen, but no saves. Although Yaisel Sierra could provide hope for that in the future. Jimenez and Colon Nick Kingham is recovering from TJ, but could be a back end SP option from the minors.
2017 Update: The pitching staff also has seen a lot of turnover. None of these guys are around anymore, and they've been replaced with an improved group. Carlos Rodon is the question mark. He's got good stuff but hasn't dominated since he was a soph in college. Cueto is a solid 2-starter level arm, and Rich Hill could end up there if healthy as well. Smyly should contribute solid innings. There may not be any saves in this pen though. Holds might be a problem too.
MILB: Dom Nunez is an offensive minded C prospect that should be along in 3-4 years, and Bobby Bradley could slug his way to Cleveland fairly quickly depending on his contact rates in the upper minors. Brandon Rodgers, Garrett Whitley, and Starling Heredia are all potential impact talents that are several years away. There are also some decent all around talents like Giron, Lowe, and Hayes that can contribute in this same timeframe. On the pitching side, it's thinner. Acevedo's scouting reports read eerily similar to Dellin Betances, but at this point he has better control at the same stage. The Sheffield brothers and Seijas are well regarded, but also a long way away.
2017 Update: Most of the turnover in the MLB roster was at the expense of the MILB roster. Some guys took steps back, most were dealt. Kolek, the Sheffield Bros., Acevedo, and Heredia are still here, but otherwise it's a lot of meh.
Cap: 2017 is a complete mess. He has 103M committed in salary alone, before arbitration and scale raises. The killer is the 53M in cap commitments outside of that, placing him 45M over cap already for next season. In 2018 there is 77M committed to 5 players before arbitration and scale guys get accounted for. His minors will start to fill in after that point, but there's no way this can be a competitive team until this salary is cleared.
2017 Update: A lot of the devastating long term salaries are gone somehow. There's not much left on the books after 2018, at least relative to the 250M he usually has racked up 3 years out. It's going to need to be managed, but not as frantically as normal next offseason.
Management and Salary: I think this is a team that is transitioning into a younger core. The Nationals have always been aggressive in trades and FA’s, but they usually lean towards the veterans in trades and big money FA’s. The moves that fix this roster are going to have to be subtle improvements if he sticks with MLB talent. Cap issues are going to limit the big contracts that can be taken on, and FA participation is going to be difficult for the next year or three due to contract obligations. The existing minors will help fill in on this transition, as there is some high ceiling talent on the way. But right now I’m not sure it’s enough to get this team into contention with the veteran talent beginning to fade.
2017 Update: Same old Bryan here. So much for that younger core theory. The minors are pretty cleared out, and there are a lot of vets on the MLB roster. The pen needs a lot of work, and the rotation could be deeper. Probably not enough to get into the playoffs in a tough NL, which is rough when the minors was mostly gutted to get to this point.
Why he’s here: He has some pieces on the MLB roster to move if he wants to rebuild, but none are elite. There are also some players in the upper minors that will fill in also. Ultimately, it’s an older roster with some bad contracts, but those can be paid down. He’s starting to accumulate a farm, but right now it’s a roster in transition. It doesn’t have the core MLB pieces that teams ahead of it do, but it has more and a better minors of the transition teams that are behind.
17: Minnesota Twins
MLB:
Hitting: Machado is obviously the jewel here as a multi-category stud. JD Martinez has started to establish himself as a BA/SLG force as well. Beyond that however is some single dimensional options. Kipnis has kind of become an empty BA, Bour and Grichuk will likely only contribute to power, and there are a couple all around contributors that don't really amount to huge numbers like Kiermaier. It's a solid offense, but nothing special currently. Ramos, Napoli, Aybar, Martinez, and Beltran all expire after 2016. After this year his big OF depth takes a hit, and he loses his starting C. Bour can cover 1B barring regression, and he's covered in other spots as well. He's going to need some positional eligibility to break well for him to be covered beyond next year. Speaking of which, there is not a lot in the short term pipeline to fix anything either. Roman Quinn should claim an OF spot and contribute some steals.
2017 Update: There's been quite a bit of turnover on this roster. Machado is still here, but he's really the only holdover. Twins hit FA's hard this offseason, adding Eduardo Nunez, Nelson Cruz, and Wilson Ramos to the offense while filling out the rest with trades. 1B is a question mark, and despite a lot of names OF depth could be a problem if Piscotty or Fowler get hurt. All in all though, the offense is probably improved. On the farm, Carson Kelly and Gleyber Torres could help soon. I don't see any other real contributors that are close though.
Pitching: This is certainly a studs and scrubs situation. Keuchel and Archer are the studs, and both are likely to be retained past their arb years through extensions. Beyond those two, there's a retiree, a TJ recovery, a Rockies castoff, and (I'm not sure if it's worse) a Rockies starter in his rotation. In his pen there are a lot of holds options, but only Glen Perkins can be counted on for consistent saves this season. Certainly beyond this season as I don't believe the Giants are stuck on Casilla. In the minors, the pen is the only spot that will get help, as Alex Colome should contribute to the Rays pen this year.
2017 Update: Here's another spot where there was a lot of turnover. FA's also filled in this group in both the rotation and pen. Kenley Jansen and Danny Duffy were the big purchases. Trades brought in Gausman and Velazquez. Alex Colome seems to have a firm grip on a closer job this year in TB, and he'll get some holds/saves from the pen. This group is a little less top heavy than last year's, and overall improved as well. I'd be surprised if the farm produces anything to fill this group out.
MILB: I like JD Davis, and there are a few pitchers that could develop into back end types. However for having 77 prospects there's about 70 that could be cut and never really missed. I think a few have retired, actually.
2017 Update: JD Davis is gone, and IDK that I see much else worth mentioning. I'd have mentioned Moran above for guys that are close, but he's so hopelessly blocked in Houston that it's going to take a trade for him to be a significant contributor this year.
Cap: He's in a solid spot, depending on extension decisions for Kipnis, Archer, perhaps Keuchel, and Machado. Murphy is a long term and expensive commit for what he provides. There are a couple guys that are useful that are controlled through their arb years. For the most part this team can stay intact for a while with only 41M in commitments next year and 7M in payments. 2018 will be interesting with the extensions starting to come due.
2017 Update: He's no longer in a solid spot. He's got a lot of FA contracts eating cap, then a lot of arbitration raises that will eat the rest on his full 40 man roster. It's going to take some creative financing to keep this group together for any length of time.
Management and Summary: This is an AL Wild Card contending roster with a core that is controlled. The problem is going to be that while he’s competitive, it’s not going to get over the hump this year. Even with the control the core of this roster offers, it just doesn’t seem like it’s going to be enough, and it’s going to get more expensive down the road which will hamper FA participation. The Twins org is also not the most active, and some of the moves that have been made during activity spurts has been slightly baffling. The problem for this roster is that moves will need to be made in one direction or another to get it into contending shape, because the farm will not be much help.
2017 Update: Twins got new management late last season. He seems to be someone who will be less focused on building a talent pipeline through the minors and will stay focused on the MLB roster.
Why he’s here: I see this roster as being roughly an equal spot to the Nationals. Flip flop them if you like, as I see them as pretty similar. The Nationals boast a much better farm, but the Twins have a much better core group to work with. Actually, the Mets are really close here as well. Three teams with cap issues that can’t quite compete for a playoff spot as they are. I have the Twins behind the Mets because I think the Mets core group is slightly more valuable going forward and has better overall depth in the 40 man.
16: New York Mets
MLB:
Hitting: Harper would be the gem of any roster, and the good version of Chris Davis is a nice slugging 1B. His LF situation should be solid with Conforto manning it for the next 6 years. Beyond that it's pretty rough. The Mauer contract is an albatross, and Ian Desmond doesn't have a job yet. He may not get one until June. Harrison is solid, but only guaranteed control though 2016. He is eligible for extension. CF, 3B, C, are pretty rough for this year. Davis and Harper alone could win HR/SLG for him against most rosters, and with Harrison, Conforto, and Park/Mauer propping up non-speed categories his offense could be OK vs. the bottom of the league. On the near horizon, Peraza can help at 2B and give a lot of SB's to an otherwise very slow offense. Colin Moran won't give power, but he should be OK at other spots and should fill 3B for a while.
2017 Update: Harper is still here, although after a down season and entering his final year of control I'm not sure how much value to this roster he really has. Conforto struggled, and is likely going to need an injury to get called up. There's been a lot of turnover outside of those two, but it's mostly been exchanging bad salary for shorter term worse salary. JBJ is one new addition that's an exception. But the infield took a big step back, and with Conforto's struggles and questionable time expected for of the OF beyond Harper/Bradley I don't think anyone is going to say the offense has improved this offseason. Nimmo is ready to help soon in the minors, but that could work against him because he could block Conforto who could/should be a better fantasy asset.
Pitching: Greinke is the ace of a shallow pitching staff. Teheran needs a bounceback year, otherwise his horrible ratios will undo the good that Greinke does. DeSclafani and Chen are decent back-end fantasy options. Greinke is on a 5 year deal, and Teheran is extenion eligible, as is Chen after 2018 and 2017 respectively. Lackey could be solid, but at his age it is tough to project a repeat of '15. In the pen, Rodney needs to win the closer job in SD, otherwise there aren't any saves here. He's got 3 nondescript sources of holds in the other three members of his pen. He has enough innings here that he can do fine in the non-pen categories, although depth will hurt in K's. He should have enough to be middling at QS, but W's will be a problem thanks to his depth not playing for good teams. The rate stats will depend on how Teheran and DeSclafani fare. There's not much help soon, as his best bets are guys that profile as stopgap starters that hover between AAA and MLB filling in for injuries.
2017 Update: This is another spot that experienced an overhaul. Teheran is still around, and should be the ace. Sonny Gray struggled badly last year and is already hurt this year. Daniel Norris could be solid, and Folty will alternate between looking like an ace and looking like me in starts. He could be a breakout candidate if he leans away from me. All in all his additions to his rotation look a lot better than his offensive changes. There's a lot of holds in his bullpen, with Doolittle as a possible closer candidate. There's nothing on the farm that's going to help soon.
MILB: Luis Carpio is the only name to follow in the lower minors. He can be a solid all-around contributor at 2B, albeit in 6-7 years. There aren't any pitchers of note.
2017 Update: Carpio is gone.
Cap: This is a mess. He's at 95M for 2017 with 8M+ in commitments beyond that. He'll also be losing depth at 1B, C, and RP. 2018 is worse, as he'll not only face a lot of decisions on who to extend, he'll also be facing 102M in currently committed salary for that year BEFORE any extensions. Extending Teheran, Chen, Harper (if eligible), and Harrison is going to prove impossible unless some major salary dumping happens. That 6th for Mauer deal hurt a lot more than it helped. With minimal minors graduations expected soon and a lot of probable expirations and unextendable players, this middling roster could be in much rougher shape soon.
2017 Update: The downgrades to the offense at least made him better off financially. He's got some arbitration raises to work around, but using his HTD on Harper next offseason doesn't look so unfeasible anymore.
Management and Summary: This is the definition of a studs and scrubs team. The best overall fantasy player lives here, and one of the top SP’s. Cap is a serious issue, and there’s not much in the minors to fill in holes that will be created. Harper probably isn’t going to live out his tenure on this roster, as it’s not really a contender, and even if there’s an extension offered to Harper before he expires it’s going to likely be more than what Trout just received. Given the cap situation this org faces and the expiring contracts, there won’t be enough money to go around. This is a very active owner in trades and FA’s, but one of those avenues won’t be available given the cap status of this roster.
2017 Update: No changes to management. This is a pitching dominated roster right now. No minors to really speak of to offer cheap help. Again, this roster is probably not a contender, and ironically giving Harper a monster contract with no cheap help around him will likely keep this franchise in that state.
Why he’s here: As said, these last three teams are pretty similar but have different weaknesses. I stated the reasons I have the Mets ahead of the previous two already. I have him behind the Rays because overall I do not think his MLB roster is as good currently, and I think that the Mets has less of a long-term core it can hold together.
15: Tampa Bay Rays
MLB:
Hitting: I don't see a single source of steals in this lineup. There's a decent amount of power for 2016 and 2017 with Pujols, Upton, Russell, Schoop, Bruce, and Pederson who are all candidates to get 20++ HR's. Slugging and HR's going forward should be solid wins for him most weeks. BA, R, probably OBP are also categories that Forbz will struggle to win this year. Russell, Schoop, and Pederson aren't mid-lineup hitters at the moment, so RBI's may also be tight. Pujols, Bruce, and Russell Martin come off the books at the end of 2017 and 2016 (Martin), and there aren't any replacements in the pipeline.
2017 Update: Unsurprisingly Forbz traded all those guys and finished with the 5th worst record in the league last year. Also unsurprisingly, Pederson returned this past offseason. On top of several other trades, he again has a full offense. I don't want to detail the 25 new names, but he now has a deep offense that should generate stats in all categories. Souza is a wild card right now, but a good season from him will be big for this roster. There's literally nothing on offense in the farm right now.
Pitching: He has a solid core of young arms. Norris, Gray, and Heaney aren't aces by any stretch, but they're cheaply controlled through the decade and will be very solid. Corbin will also be around for another 3 years to contribute strongly. Wins/QS may be a little lacking just due to them not being guys that will go much beyond 5 innings in their starts at this point in their careers, but WHIP/ERA should be wins most weeks for a while. Just due to lack of volume, I think that W/QS/Ks are going to be a struggle against anyone that's not a rebuilder. In the pen, long term saves are hard to come by, but there are some OK arms there. H/SV, who knows how that will pan out going forward. Street is signed long term, but rumor has it that he's gone come May 1. Tolleson could get usurped at any time. There's no help on the way in the minors here either.
2017 Update: Guess what? None of these guys are here. In their place is a very strong but shallow group of SP's. Harvey, Strasburg, and Salazar front the rotation. They've all got rough injury histories, and if one goes down it will probably sink this ship. His pen is also shallow, but has good pitchers that will generate K's/SV/HLD. There's also no help here from the minors.
MILB: I don’t see anyone worth commenting on. There's nothing in the short term pipeline, and there aren't any chips in the long term pipeline to move or develop. If I were him I'd just release them all.
2017 Update: Did I mention there's no help on the way?
Cap: This roster is overcommitted in 2017 by around 15M before arbitration and scale raises. He currently has 52M tied up in 2018 commitments in 4 players, with a lot of his young talent also about to hit arbitration.
2017 Update: I don't foresee any cap issues. There's some salary on the books, but a number of his guys are 6's. There's not a ton of arb guys to jack up his future salary. Not that any of these guys will be in TB 10 months from now.
Management and Summary: This organization is always in a state of flux, constantly tearing down and building back up. Last year it was able to cobble together a winner, however this year it looks overextended. This is set up as a win-now team with no minors, and without things breaking extremely well, I don’t know that this is a wild card roster. This organization has a very active manager that trades and works FA’s very aggressively, but like some other teams the future cap situation is going to hamper FA participation.
2017 Update: No ownership change, and going into the season it looks to be set up as a win-now team. Of course he turned over his entire roster that I mentioned above by mid-May last season. So who knows.....
Why he’s here: The Rays may be able to scratch out a wild card if everything breaks correctly. It doesn’t have a well rounded offense, and there is no true ace on the pitching staff, nor is there enough depth to fend off teams that will pound him with innings to win accumulator stats. I have him behind the Giants and Rangers mostly because as this roster stands it has less depth, and there’s no minors help on the way to supplement.
14: San Francisco Giants
MLB:
Hitting: Starling Marte is a nice all around contributor for this lineup, especially now that he's in the middle of the order. He won't match Marte's SB's, but Maikel Franco could match Marte everywhere else with more power. Speaking of power, Cole Calhoun and Brian McCann provide above average power for their positions but aren't easy on the BA. Hanley Ramirez could bounce back, but it's hard to say what exactly you can count on from him. Belt is a solid all around bat at 1B that can help prop up some of the lower BA/OBP bats. There's not really a 2B option here, and SS is weak-ish. Although Gregorius could give 10 homers and also help prop up BA/OBP. He quietly was OK last year. I think there's enough here to be a wild card level offense, but getting a couple bounce back seasons and a fast 2B to aid SB's would help. Most of this offense is controlled at least through 2018, and Marte and Franco are controlled through the decade. Belt is the main piece that is gone after 2016, and some depth expires as well in the next two years, but being ready for the 2018 expirations will be key. I don't know that I see a lot of 2016/17 help on the way here. Trevor Story could fill in for Jose Reyes while suspended, and Adam Duvall is in competition for either an OF or 3B spot in Cincy. I'm of the opinion that a big year from Anthony Alford could put him in the mix for a full time job at some point in early-mid 2017.
2017 Update: The Giants barely missed the NL playoffs last year. Franco is gone, as is Gregorius. A recent trade cemented his 3B situation this year with Todd Frazier. Dozier was a beast last year and looks to repeat at 2B. Most of the offense has stuck around, and it is one of the best in the NL. There's power everywhere, and SS-eligible Jose Peraza supplements the SB's that Marte generates. It's a very similar roster, but a stronger and deeper one in 2017. The upgrades came at a cost, as there really isn't currently anyone in the minors that will be much help soon.
Pitching: There are a lot of names here, but I hesitate to call it deep. Marco Estrada is very solid and so is Colin McHugh. When healthy, Strasburg can be among the best starters in the game. He seems to get nicked up though. I think he comes out and has a big 2016 though. Other than that, there are about 5 guys fighting for the final spots in their respective rotations, and with a couple of them on the same team, not all can win. The pen should be solid with Papelbon and Kimbrel cranking out saves, and Hudson, Knebel, and Diekman getting holds. There is a lot of control here, with FA signing Strasburg hanging around until 2020. Kimbrel has an extension, as does Estrada. Several of his SP's are controlled through at least 2019, however only McHugh is guaranteed significant innings. Papelbon is the only significant guy that is expiring after 2016. The farm is going to start providing help though. Jose de Leon is a 2 starter, possibly more with his swing and miss stuff. Jorge Lopez clicked last season proving to be a ground ball and K machine in his AA season. Cody Reed could join Cincy's rotation at some point this season before September. Gilmartin, Flores, and Bassitt could find back end roles soon, and Jairo Diaz could fill a spot in the Rox pen. I think this is a staff that can be OK vs. the middling rosters, but against teams where depth comes into play I think that this staff will struggle outside of SV/HLD and maybe the rate stats.
2017 Update: The bullpen is improved, and there was a lot of turnover in the rotation although it's hard to tell with the 25 starters on the roster. It's a similar problem though, as there could be 5 strong starters in the group (Darvish, Fulmer, Moore, Greinke, and Graveman). Just based on odds and sheer volume there will be 1-2 from the rest that contribute. Roberto Osuna's back injury makes Edwin Diaz is the lone closer right now in the pen, but there are some other current setup candidates that are in shaky closer situations that could beef up his save count. There are several good setup options. All in all a strong pen and deep pitching staff. Reynaldo Lopez and Joan Gregorio should contribute in 2017 from the minors.
MILB: It's a deep minors, some of which hasn't been drafted in real life yet. Of the pro's Cole Tucker could be a solid all around SS. Devin Davis is a guy I liked out of the draft last year, as was Ryan Mountcastle. Justin Williams has a ton of potential as a fantasy OF, but he needs to find SOME pitches to not swing at. I'm not going to list all the pitchers I like, because this is the strength of the farm. Reynaldo Lopez, Chase Johnson, Guerrieri and Jurado are all guys with mid rotation or better potential.
2017 Update: The minors has taken a good sized hit, but it was at least it improved the MLB roster. Tucker, Mountcastle, Williams, and Jurado are gone from the mentions above. Castellani looks like he could be a solid SP in a few seasons. Guerrieri needs to learn how to miss bats. The offensive side is a little more nondescript, although Will Craig is interesting.
Cap: There is nearly 90M in cap tied up already in salaries alone before taking in arbitration raises, then another 12M in outside commitments in 2017. There are also a couple extensions that will need to be considered in Estrada and Kimbrel. 2018 is also tight, with 85M committed already. Strasburg, Hanley, and Bud Norris are the three players eating 58M+ in 2019.
2017 Update: There's almost 70M in tied up cap next year, and a ton of arbitration seasons next year. Cap is going to be tight, but it won't be at the expense of fielding a roster as they'll be free cuts if he wants.
Management and Summary: This one is the best of the non-contenders. The cap situation isn’t great for FA spending, and this is an owner that has been aggressive in free agency. There is a lot of control here, especially with players that are extension eligible. There are also some big contracts. Even with these issues, there is a deep minors here with players on the way soon to help with both depth and fantasy impact, particularly for a troublesome pitching staff.
2017 Update: No ownership changes, and with the D-backs and Padres taking steps back I think this roster is the favorite in a competitive NL west.
Why he’s here: There are some rough contracts that need to be moved, but underneath there are a good number of solid scale players that will help him keep the roster together. I think it’s a more well rounded MLB roster with depth, and issues that will crop up with the quality of the pitching staff will be fixed internally through pitchers coming through the minors. I have him behind the Rangers because I think the MLB roster is a little worse off in terms of the scale guys he controls.
13: Texas Rangers
MLB:
Hitting: There are a lot of FA signings, but none look to be too crazy in cost. Lots of solid guys like Lind, Peralta, etc. that maybe aren't bargains but won't kill a cap either. It also means it's an aging roster, as most of the core contributors are getting on in years. Just from the looks of things, it seems like BA/OBP might be a struggle, but in the AL just filling out a roster means that you're going to be OK most weeks. He's got a lot of consistent contributors, even if none are spectacular. If Austin Jackson doesn't sign he will be empty in CF, and he's also depending on Chase Utley getting most of the PT at 2B. As far as control goes, not much of his roster will be around in 2019. However there won't be much turnover on offense for the next 3 years. His minors may provide some help in CF by virtue of the Khris Davis trade. Rymer Liriano will be in competition for the Brewers CF job this season. Has anyone gone from being a huge helium prospect to almost post-hype afterthought quicker than Wilmer Difo? IDK, I still like him and in a non-Dusty Baker world he might be in true competition for a utility spot with a starting MI role in his future. Ryan Cordell is also a utility profile that can play everywhere.
2017 Update: The Rangers made the playoffs last season as division champs in the AL West. Since then his trades for Addison Russell and Jean Segura shore up his middle infield. He needs to shore up 1B though, as none of his 3 options look promising right now. After Alex Gordon his outfield looks to be a bit short as well. Rymer Liriano, Ryan Cordell, and Ramon Laureano could be up to help out at some point this season.
Pitching: Carrasco and Iwakuma form a nice 1-2 punch, and it would be surprising if both are not extended after 2017. Kennedy, Nelson, and a healthy Derek Holland provide depth in the rotation as well, even if they're not easy on WHIP/ERA. Porcello, Kennedy, Nelson are also controlled through 2019, so this core will be around for a while. The pen is a little thin, but he does have a closer in AJ Ramos for saves, and a couple holds options. In the close minors there is a lot of help on the way both in the rotation and pen. Newcomb, Garrett, AJ Cole, Fedde, are the highlights. Bracho and Cotton should become late pen fixtures soon.
2017 Update: This could end up being a solid pitching staff. Jimmy Nelson threw a good 2 months then fell apart from that point on. Porcello was a surprise CY winner last year. Fiers and Iwakuma provide solid rotation depth. A healthy season from Carrasco will go a long way for this roster. The pen should be OK, as Ramos and Ottavino should provide a source of saves, and Storen, Torres, and others will give holds. The pitching staff will be the backbone of this roster. Jharel Cotton will be a big boost when Bill calls him up and Sean Newcomb and AJ Cole will come up at some point to help out.
MILB: A lot of the minors strength is in the upper minors. However Anderson Franco, Yrizarri, Vicuna, are guys that can be above average players, and I still like Ravelo (for some reason). The low minors pitching is mostly depth options.
2017 Update: Bill is sneaky good at drafting. Doesn't make a lot of noise but ends up grabbing solid IFA's every June and good players in the Rule 5. Franklin Perez looks to be developing into a front of a rotation arm, and I still like Franco, Vicuna, and he added one of my favorites in Almanzar last IFA. Stubbs could be a good C option going forward as well.
Cap: He has a 72M payroll already for 2017 before arbitration raises. He'll still have some space to work. Gordon will be extension eligible, and he's not really losing anyone of consequence. His costs are pretty fixed thanks to most of the roster being free agents and extension eligibles. He should be able to retain anyone he wants.
2017 Update: He'll have a lot of guys in the 4-6 season arbitration to add to this, but right now he's only got 50M committed to salary next year. I don't think he'll be in trouble going forward, as he's usually controlled in who he buys in FA's despite using it to acquire players frequently.
Summary and Management: This is a veteran roster, but it offers a lot of team control. It will be together for a while at a reasonable cost. There will be space to work in FA’s, which this organization tends to do. The minors are a bit sparse in the lower ranks. This team is the favorite in a weak AL West. Considering the team control and also the MILB players that are on the horizon to fill in the pitching staff with cheap reinforcements it could be there a while as a lot of the competition is facing lengthy rebuilds.
2017 Update: Still the same old Bill. Despite the shortcomings on offense, I think he's the favorite for the AL West again on the strength of his pitching. The Angels and A's don't have a chance, and I don't know that I see Seattle winning the division without some moves.
Why he’s here: This is the favorite in the AL West, and it has the depth to withstand injury. Of the potential playoff teams, I think this is probably the weakest overall roster, but there are enough good pieces to rank them ahead of the teams behind him on their own merit. There are some young pitchers that will come up soon to supplement as well.
12: San Diego Padres
MLB:
Hitting: The corner infield spots will feature a lot of power, but not much in terms of batting average or OBP. Pedroia when healthy is a solid all around contributor outside of SB's. If Segura starts over Cabrera, he'll be a nice source of SB's, and maybe runs depending on where he's at in the order. Lorenzo Cain had a breakout fantasy year last year, and will need to repeat for this offense to help this team contend vs. the other strong NL rosters. Corey Dickerson slots into LF, but had pretty bad road splits when in Colorado and doesn't move into a friendly offensive park. Wil Myers when healthy will be the CF. His OF depth isn't very deep as none will take on full time roles in '16 or maybe at any point. Duda and Prado will expire after 2016, and Cain, Norris, Segura, and Cabrera expire after 2017. Pedroia and Dickerson have the most control of the core offense, and they will be around until 2020 and 2019 respectively. This team will struggle with the rate stats, but it's deep enough and has enough power and speed that it can compete for some counting stats with most teams. On the farm, Spangenberg can provide some steals out of 2B, and Tom Murphy should be ready to compete for the Rockies C job next spring.
2017 Update: Segura and Myers monster breakout seasons propelled this offense into an AL West title and eventually an ODC Championship. That offense is no more, as both have been traded, along with everyone else. The standout on offense is currently George Springer, and by standout I meant to say "only". On the farm, Tyler O'Neill and Zagunis could help out this season, and it looks like Yandy Diaz will get time at 3B.
Pitching: This pitching staff can be very solid if healthy. Cueto battled some elbow issues at the end of last season but received a 5 year contract in here. Yu Darvish won't be available until midseason, but is an ace when healthy. David Price is also a top of the rotation arm. JA Happ had a great 2nd half. Gallardo provides solid depth, as does Alex Wood if he makes the rotation this spring. The pen will feature two strong closers in Melancon and Familia, but holds could end up being a struggle. I can see this staff competing with anyone in the NL in the pitching stats assuming health and the good Darvish returning. Since most were signed as FA's, it is also going to stick together for a while. Melancon expires after 2016 and represents the only real hit this staff will take until 2018 when the scale players begin to expire. Cueto and Gallardo are signed for 5 more years, and Price for 4. Darvish actually will be a candidate for extension, as his real life contract expires in 2017, but he's controlled until 2018 in here. So unless broken apart this is a strong staff that will be together for a while. On the farm, Marco Gonzales could fill in for the Cardinals should injury strike. Other than that, there are maybe some lower leverage bullpen options on the way.
2017 Update: This pitching staff was very strong last season. This season, not so much. Urias is still going to be on an innings restriction, and well Gallardo is blah. Recently added Jeff Hoffman and Luis Severino could go in any direction in terms of performance and role. Baez could get holds in the pen, but Rosenthal lost his closing job, and if he's going to be a roving mid-inning RP he's not generating many holds either. On the farm, Erick Fedde could get a September call, and Chance Adams could also contribute.
MILB: Christin Stewart is an interesting bat, and there are a couple of college kids that are interesting that will be draft eligible in the next couple years. Jhoan Urena could also be a nice bat, but he needs to show that he's healed up and start hitting again. I don't see much on the far horizon coming from the pitching side besides occasional injury spot starters, low leverage pen arms, and maybe some guys that develop into 4/5 starters.
2017 Update: He gutted a championship roster, but IMO there's not a ton here to show for it. He spent heavily in the last couple IFA periods and mirrored the big spending the real life Padres did, adding Ona, Baez, and Ruiz. Robles, O'Neill, and Fedde provide some impact potential, along with his recent IFA adds.
Cap: With all the FA signings, you'd think there would be more cap committed for '17, but he's wiped out a lot of the salary debt in trades. He's got it down to 65M in total commitments for next season, not including arbitration raises. He'll need to do the same in 2017/18, as before arbitration he'll be paying this roster 85 and 81M respectively. Not to mention 49M to three players alone in 2019.
2017 Update: There's no cap problems now. After the gutting and dealing expensive talent for a discount there aren't any serious commitments.
Management and Summary: This was a tough one to rank. I’m not sure that this team has enough for a wild card, even with the strong rotation. At the same time, making the playoffs either through the last wild card or even winning the NL West outright wouldn’t be incredibly surprising. Big contracts and free agent spending are going to force some trades to keep the roster under cap, and some decent sized cogs are either coming off career years or are starting to age and break down. Positionally, this roster works for 2016, but I think there is going to be some redundancy going forward and holes that get created after this season. This organization is active in free agency, but won’t have much cap for it. It also doesn’t have much in the way of minors to either fill in or act as trade chips. This org is going to need to be active in trades, particularly in acquiring cap to keep this ship afloat going forward.
2017 Update: Noah is still here. The roster is going to be competing for the cellar in the ALW though this year, instead of the top. I'm not sure there's enough of a farm to consider the franchise in great shape either at this point, although I have no clue what he owns for draft picks.
Why he’s here: It’s a very balanced MLB roster that could contend for a playoff spot in a tough NL. A few players are coming off bigger years than they’re normally posting, so asking for everyone to repeat is a bit much. That said, the MLB is well ahead of the teams below it, but perhaps not too far ahead of the teams above. The minors is far weaker than a lot of the teams ahead of it, so this is where I decided to plonk this roster down.
11: Cincinnati Reds
MLB:
Hitting: This is a solid all around roster. There's depth, especially in the OF. There aren't any elite studs, but there are guys who can contribute at every position. A lengthy Reyes suspension could hurt this offense. Batting average, runs, and SB are things he usually provides, and if he's absent I don't know that the slack can be picked up. If this roster is going to compete for a wild card, Montero, Lamb, Ozuna, and Polanco are all going to need to have strong seasons. If they do, it's an offense that can sneak enough categories each week to stay competitive all season. As far as control goes, there will be a good deal of turnover after 2018, but for the most part it's intact to that point. Reyes and Montero expire after this year, and Holliday after 2017. Lamb and Polanco are the main guys that are still scheduled to be on the roster after 2018. On the farm, JP Crawford will help at SS as soon as Reyes is expired. Mazara and Margot will also be ready quickly to fill in OF spots.
2017 Update: Ozuna and Mazara were moved early on last season, and Holliday and Lamb are now history as well. Otherwise this roster is intact. Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon were added last year, and Maikel Franco, Carlos Santana, and Dee Gordon were added this offseason. Josh Reddick was added via FA's to bolster the OF. All in all this is a deep and well rounded offense. I don't see anyone that's particularly close in the minors to contributing much this season on offense.
Pitching: Depth is going to be a problem for this season. Felix, Pineda, and Zimmermann are good options for this year, however Wheeler won't be back until midseason, and Blair may not get time until September. Nolin and Hughes seem to be pushed into bullpen roles this year, and Butler may not have a role at all. The pen is also weak, as it is mostly guys that will maybe receive 7th inning work. Felix and Zimmermann are controlled until 2020, Pineda until 2018, and Wheeler through 2019. On the farm, Alex Reyes is primed to get at least a bullpen role in the next season or so, although he's suspended for a chunk of 2016. Michael Fulmer probably won't get into the Tigers rotation early, but he'll probably be first up in case of injury. Jake Thompson is on a slower timeline, but in a similar situation. He's probably looking at a September call. Eric Johnson could win the job at the back of the ChiSox rotation this spring.
2017 Update: There's been a lot of turnover in this area. If there's a weakness on the roster it's going to be in the rotation. Aaron Sanchez and Joe Ross are the headliners here, with Jon Gray and Trevor Bauer contributing K's but also inflating ERA/WHIP. The guys behind are more back-end types that could be OK or could blow up. There's a lot more holds-type of guys in the pen rather than closers than you'd expect from a contender. Maurer has a tenuous hold on the SD closer job, and Raisel Iglesias is penciled in as Cincy's closer but is fragile. The pitching staff took a hit with De Leon's seeming step back in stuff and the injury to Anthony Reyes. Despite that Amir Garrett and Yohander Mendez will still be there at some point this season to contribute.
MILB: Josh Naylor, Nick Gordon, Trent Clark, and Brady Aiken headline the potential impact players in the low minors. There are a few mid rotation potential guys, and the standard high ceiling/high risk 16 year olds in Gomez, Ynoa, Heredia, and Celestino. It's a pretty well rounded farm that should keep an influx of talent coming for a few years.
2017 Update: Clark, Ynoa, and Heredia are still here, but the others mentioned aren't. There's some good depth here, but it's all very far away outside of Garrett and Mendez. Kyle Lewis when healthy could be a guy that moves quickly.
Cap: This roster is at 105M in 2017 already, and 85 in 2018 before arbitration raises kick in. Then another 55M in 2019 on 4 players. There aren't any other commitments on the books however, making the situation manageable. Especially considering the relatively strong MILB that's waiting in the wings.
2017 Update: There's less salary on the books in future years, but there's more arbitration salary as well. Performance will tell if the situation remains the same or not.
Management and Summary: This is a very active organization in trades, but will spend in free agency. I don’t know that this roster can compete in a tough NL Central this year and will face an uphill battle for the wild card to make the playoffs. I give this roster less chance to compete this year, but going forward it is well set up. There is support coming from the high minors, and as players begin to expire or if trades need to be made, he has the high ceiling players to use as he wants in the low minors.
2017 Update: No management changes. This was a wild card playoff roster last season. I think that the offense is one of the best in the league, and could be the best if all the kids perform. There really aren't any weaknesses. Pitching is a different story, which could be sketchy.
Why he’s here: The MLB in 2016 is weaker than a couple of the teams below it in the rankings. But this roster is young, and has a couple of guys coming back from injury and down seasons. The minors are really well set up though and he’s phasing into the final stages of the rebuild, and creates a young group of potential impact talent that places it slightly ahead of the teams below it. I don’t think the MLB roster as it stands, even with the MILB reinforcements that are close, is going to be strong enough for the next couple years to leapfrog any of the teams above it.
10: Boston Red Sox
MLB:
Hitting: Right now, his CI's are the highlight of the offense. Miggy and Bryant are controlled for another 5 years minimum. They're heavy contributors in all offensive categories but steals. Bogaerts should be a nice offensive option at SS during this time as well. Mookie Betts highlights the OF stable of players. His lineup also features solid depth with Crawford, Carter, Tomas, and Dyson providing backup options. At one point this farm was fully stocked with players to reload at every position, but right now the only short term offensive option might be at 3B with Michalslsdfadsfski and Renato Nunez. Category-wise, this roster currently lacks a bit in steals overall, but prying any other category on offense from the Red Sox should prove a challenge for years to come.
Pitching: With Fernandez, Gray, Miller, and Rodon, Boston has a controlled top 4 with impact potential. Paxton, Miley, and eventually Lance Lynn (who will not advance in ST this season) form a nice stable of depth. Barring extensions, his top 3 are controlled for 3 more seasons, and the depth will be gone in 2-3 years. His bullpen is short on saves options, but should be strong in holds. His top 4 should keep him well set up in every pitching category save ERA/WHIP (depending on Rodon's development and Miller's adjustment to a hitter's park). In 2-3 seasons, the biggest contributors from his upper minors will likely be in the bullpen. There are a couple of future starters, but I don't see any impact in the near term. Although Biddle had a lot of potential, perhaps the Pirates are the org to bring him back to life.
MILB: The deeper minors hold more promise. Verdugo had a great second half last year and looks very promising. I'm not going to ding for his real life org, but at this point I can't love any dodger prospects. They just have too much money and can't keep themselves from bringing in expensive vets to block the kids. There are other higher ceiling talents in his low minors MILB as well. Beede is still raw for a college draftee, and a lot of his higher ceiling pitching talent will be drafted in real life in the next 2 drafts.
Cap: Miggy will continually present a cap problem that will need to be dealt with from season to season. Even more so if he continues to break down. This team is fortunate that most of the team control outside of Cabrera and Tomas will come in the form of arbitration, however if his SP's start to sign extensions it might be tough to keep the roster together financially as long as Miggy's 30M is on the books.
Management and Summary: This team is very strong, and possibly the favorite in the AL East this year. It has a lot of control, however it comes at a big cost to cap space. With almost no minors depth to count on providing cheap reinforcements as players expire, it could be tough to hold together as long as Miggy is on the roster. However, the new owner of the Red Sox is very active in trades, and has already experienced working that contract down. Even though there’s not much in the minors, he has a ton of upcoming picks in the draft. I know I said I wasn’t counting picks, and I really didn’t here, but the number is significant enough to mention. The key will be drafting well to add the needed talent.
Why he’s here: It’s a deep roster that is probably the favorite in the AL East. The MLB roster is much better than the teams below it and will be for a while if the cap doesn’t get in the way. I have this roster below some of the teams ahead of it because it has more cap headaches to deal with, and no minors currently that will help supplement soon.
9: Philadelphia Phillies
MLB:
Hitting: Rizzo, Correa, and a fragile George Springer form the nucleus of the offense. There should be solid sources of all offensive categories throughout the lineup. 2B will be a hole for a bit of 2016, as Travis is hurt and Herrera won't find PT on the Mets. Yelich is solid in LF, and maybe he finally finds some power with the fences moving in in Miami. Gomez could also bounce back with a strong year if healthy, not to mention Mesoraco who missed 2015. This is a young roster, but there are also a lot of question marks health-wise. If everyone stays healthy, this team will be tough to beat in nearly every category offensively. But this roster is a couple injuries away from disaster in 2016, and there are some players that get nicked up or recently missed a lot of time. Control-wise, this team will be together through the decade outside of Carlos Gomez and Denard Span. Willson Contreras, if the breakout is real, is the only MILB'er on the horizon for the Phillies that can be a contributor.
Pitching: This is a strength of the roster. Arrieta and Sale are two of the best, and both are controlled through the decade. Wacha and McCullers are both very good depth behind them that are also controlled through scale. Fiers and Duffy will battle for rotation spots, but should be solid if they win roles. The pen has sources for saves in McGee, Storen (probably), and Boxberger. Brett Cecil is the lone holds source. Week to week, this staff can sweep pitching categories if healthy. Again, depth in the pen and possibly rotation depending on how jobs shake out could be a problem. In the minors, Marquez was a rule 5 pick in real life and should carve out a role on the Rockies staff.
MILB: I don't see any deeper MILB impact on the way on offense. Pitching has a lot of raw talent, but all of the potential impact could easily end up in the pen rather than the rotation. Johnson, Kilome, Perdomo, and Fernandez all have big arms, but they're all so raw it's impossible to assume any will develop enough make it to the rotation. However when you have the arm talent they do, you also can't assume any won't be valuable members of an MLB pen either.
Cap: The cap should not be an obstacle to keeping this roster together in the near term. Through extensions and scale there is a lot of cheap control here, which makes a 35M 5 year contract on Arrieta do-able. He has 40M in commitments in 2017, and 10M in releases, so cap will be tight next year. The Arrieta, Fister, and Storen contracts do tie up a lot of cap for the next 5 years, and the Sale, Carpenter, Yelich, and Rizzo extensions plus arbitration for Correa will tie it up even further. Tough decisions may need to be made, but it's not an impossible task.
Management and Summary: This is a thin but strong roster that can beat anyone in any given week. Some guys need to bounce back from injuries and/or stay healthy after a few nicked up seasons for this to truly be a juggernaut roster. It’s young and controlled, but it is also going to start getting expensive. At that point it would be great if he could count on a low minors to start funneling in talent, but it’s just not there outside of a few high risk arms. Contreras had a great breakout campaign, but he’s going to need to repeat before it can be bought fully into. He also represents the only high minors option that can fill in cheaply for the next few years. Now that Thomas is gone, Clayton represents the only manager he can trade with. So that avenue is mostly closed. I’m just kidding, he trades a lot. Big impact MLB FA purchases may also have to stop if he plans on taking some/all of the extensions available.
Why he’s here: If it’s healthy this roster is very strong. You could probably flip flop this ranking and the Red Sox depending on preference because they’re very, very similar. Ultimately I have the Phillies ahead because it won’t have the cap headaches while trying to keep the ship together that the Red Sox will going forward. If you value current MLB success and no minors ahead of owning a farm, you could place this roster one more spot up. I do not think the Phillies have as well rounded of an MLB roster as the Diamondbacks this year which is why I would not leap them up to 6th.
8: Detroit Tigers
MLB:
Hitting: It's an aging lineup that got a monster season out of ARod last year. Beltre, Fielder, Wieters, Pence, and Gardner are all solid guys. They should be able to cover all categories, although at some of their advanced ages they are starting to miss a little time. This roster could use a 2B with some speed, as SB's will not be a strong point. It won't be a terrible weakness either, though. On the farm, JR Murphy should be able to contribute in a full time role soon. Tim Anderson is looking to be a year away from the starting SS job in Chicago. Billy Burns is in the minors and could help the SB situation, and Lewis Brinson and Domingo Santana should provide some help at some point in 2016.
Pitching: There's a very solid group here with Odorizzi, a healthy Wainwright, and a possible resurgence out of Shark. Pomeranz and possibly Karns could all miss out on rotation spots, but are in the mix for back end jobs. If Lee isn't healthy and Pomeranz and Karns do not make the rotation, depth could be an issue especially with Buchholz's shaky health history. As far as the pen goes, there aren't any saves here with some real life bullpen shuffles costing him some saves and holds opportunities. Stephenson and Appel could fix some of the rotation depth sooner rather than later, but both have some warts to remove.
MILB: There are a lot of strong points throughout his minors. SS is well stocked throughout the minors and can handle some position changes if some guys move to 2B, 3B, or the OF. Becerra and Calhoun (assuming he moves) provide OF depth, Mateo is a nice piece behind Anderson, and his pitching is led by Anderson Espinoza, Tyler Jay, and Luis Ortiz. In short, there are a lot of pieces for the future here.
Cap: It gets a little dicey here. As constructed, he's on a 90M payroll before arbitration next season. Most of his roster is controlled through 2018, and by then his minors will have started filling in gaps. He'll face a decision on Shark after the season. The extension might be too expensive to take on. Barring some cash deals though, money to fill roster spots via FA's will be tight.
Management and Summary: This is a strong roster overall, although with the pitching depth issue it may be more of a wild card team than a division winner in a tough AL Central. There is some help in 2016 for that, but Appel needs to throw like he’s capable of throwing, and Stephenson needs to find the strike zone. This is probably the weakest 2016 team in the top 12. However with one of the top farm systems in the league that’s stacked with players that should be ready to fill in as contracts expire or pull cheap studs in trade. Tigers is usually quiet, but can be active in trading. When the funds are available he’s also aggressive in FA’s.
Why he’s here: This is the weakest 40 man roster in the top 10. But this minors is so strong and ready to fill in with serious and very cheap talent for a long time. I feel this roster as constructed will compete for a playoff spot this year, and the sustainability of this success is here. Like I said, you could flip with the Phils depending on how you value things, but I see this sustainability as making this a more powerful overall organization. I have it below the other teams because the MLB roster is not as strong and even with all those nice prospects there is risk involved and not all will work out and some will shift positions and could create gaps that will need to be fixed.
7: Arizona Diamondbacks
MLB:
Hitting: There is a very solid offense here. Cutch and Braun are the core, and they're also good contributors in every category on offense. Hosmer and Moustakas both finally broke out last year and had very nice seasons. Rendon and Castro round out the offense. If healthy Rondon is a very nice 2B option, however he seems like he's nicked up constantly. Castro has plateaued a bit, but a change of scenery following a strong 2nd half last year may help. Vogt and Perez are decent options at C, with Perez finding his power last year and Vogt showing solid BA/OBP skills. As a whole, it feels a little short on SB's vs. other top teams, and there really isn't an elite power bat in this lineup. It is going to rely on a bunch of guys getting to 20 homers to generate the power numbers. The rate stats I'd expect to be consistently strong, however. This roster is going to see some turnover in the next couple of seasons with Hosmer expiring after this year, Moustakas (or this year if the extension is not picked up), Cabrera, and Perez, next season, then Cutch, Rendon, and Giavotella after 2018. Castro and Braun are controlled through the decade. On the farm, Jordan Patterson just completed a solid AA season and could help the Rockies at some point in 2016, but not until late. Derek Fisher is pretty blocked and limited to LF, but has a solid all around skillset. AA will likely determine if he's more of an offensive 4th OF or if he can play every day as a bat-first LF.
Pitching: Garrett Richards and MadBum anchor this rotation. They should provide 400 innings and 380 K's in 2016. Nice, but not enough when they're backed up by a group of back end fantasy starters. Peralta and Sabathia are two guys that will eat innings and inflate WHIP/ERA. Santana can be OK, but he's probably the 3rd best starter on the staff which on a contending team presents a problem. Lincecum has yet to find a team, and could be looking at signing to compete for a bullpen role. Roark may have been pushed out of the Nats rotation. Medlen is solid if healthy, but you can't count on him providing a lot of work. In the pen, Cody Allen is a lock to provide saves, and Cishek is the leader to take the M's closing duties. Herrera and Betances are two of the best setup arms in the league. One thing this pitching staff does have is control. Santana, Medlen, Bumgarner, and Lincecum are all controlled through 2019, Peralta and Roark expire after 2018. Richards expires after 2017. Steve Cishek has a 7M extension for 2017, but if that's not picked up, only he and the injured Greg Holland expire after 2016. Allen and Betances expire after 2018 and '19, respectively. Herrera expires in 2 seasons. On the farm, Zach Lee can probably be counted on getting some spot starts here and there, and Plutko is about as ready as he'll ever be, and will probably be fishing for a similar role on the Indians.
MILB: Pretty much all of the potential impact talent is playing college baseball this season. Puk is the headliner there. Of the pro's, Francisco Mejia is going to move slow but has potential to be above average as a fantasy C. The Rangers seem to be good at fixing hitters with horrible approaches and contact issues, and Jairo Beras is yet another player with huge potential that is a huge project for them. Drew Jackson torched rookie ball after being drafted as a 5th rounder, but will need to continue to prove he can hit as he moves up as he was older for his league in '15.
Cap: There is 83M committed in 2017 before any extensions get exercised, which could add another 15M to the payroll. However outside of Hosmer there aren't any players of significance that will be leaving. So while there are some pretty heavy commitments to salary already through 2019, they tend to be key pieces that are easily capable of playing to their cap number. There aren't any cap adjustments for 2017.
Management and Summary: I know it seems strange to put the defending champs, probable NL West champs, and WS contender again at 8, but while they’re great for 2016, this roster is going to start losing players soon. The rotation is not that deep either. The pen is really nice though. There is a lot of cap tied up already, so free agency isn’t a route that will be available. The organization doesn’t trade often, but it may have to in order to fill holes that are going to be created by expirations. There isn’t much on the way that’s close to fill spots in the next couple years. There is depth though in the low minors, unfortunately not much of it is playing pro baseball at the moment.
Why he’s here: This roster is ahead of the teams below it because is a 2016 World Series contender and barring injuries should take the NL West. There are some cap issues and expirations that make this roster probably the least sustainable of the contenders, which is why it is not higher. This will need to be dealt with through trade, and a lot of teams have a hard time trading with the DBacks.
6: Baltimore Orioles
MLB:
Hitting: Goldy and Altuve are the top at their positions, and are relatively cheaply controlled for a long time via contract extensions. There are contributors at all offensive categories throughout his lineup, and the main ones are controlled for a while. Catcher, SS, and 3B are weak points long term, however, but the rest of his bats should make up for it for years to come. Good thing they're all controlled for a while, because there's zilch on the way from the minors.
Pitching: It's a lot of solid arms, but nothing special aside from maybe Tanaka. Plenty of 3-5 starters that will contribute to the accumulator stats just through volume, and shouldn't crush WHIP/ERA. They're all controlled through the end of the decade outside of Quintana and Tanaka. The pen is solid with an assortment of back end arms, even if they're just OK they'll contribute in SV/HLD. There are also no options in the near future coming from his farm.
MILB: Nothing to see here, just release them all.
Cap: He's up to 55M in 2017 commitments, however that does not include the impossible to turn down Altuve and Goldschmidt extensions or arbitration raises. There's no release money nor payments after 2016. Should be in a solid position going forward with this roster for the next few years thanks to all the team control.
Management and Summary: This is a well rounded offense and a steady looking pitching staff. There is no ace in the rotation, and the pen is just fine but not something that’s going to help deflate WHIP/ERA. The pitching staff as a whole is built to bludgeon with innings. The team is controlled and not expensive. He’s got two of the best contracts on two of the best bats in the league and has several scale contributors. He’s got room to move in the future with plenty of cap space and roster anchors that are cheap. Orioles tend to not be super active during the summer months, which could cause some problems, but if this roster stays healthy the problem won’t be talent for a long time. His rosters tend to be made through offseason MLB for MLB trades and does not focus on the farm. Fortunately his player costs are set up so that he doesn’t necessarily need minimum cost talent.
Why he’s here: There will be a battle in the NL East. The MLB rosters may actually favor the Red Sox who rank much lower here. This roster ranks ahead of the teams below it because of both the favorable cap situation, cheap pitching depth, and no-brain long term contract extensions for two of the best fantasy assets in the game. It’s a veteran roster with no minors, but it’s controlled for a long time and it has an elite offensive core. I have it below teams here because the pitching is really lacking a top end starter, and the teams ahead of it can match the depth he has.
5: Chicago White Sox
MLB:
Hitting: Posey, Stanton, Encarnacion, and Bautista form a formidible lineup. They're stong in most every category but batting average and SB's to win against a lot of teams on their own. Kinsler, Semien, and then Revere and Maybin (if given full time roles or close to it) will help mitigate the SB gap. There's also a lot of depth here if injuries strike. Encarnacion and Bautista will likely be FA's at the end of the season, but for the most part this team is controlled for the next few seasons. There won't be much help coming from the minors in the next few years to help the offense.
Pitching: Kazmir and DeGrom head up a deep but otherwise unspectacular staff. Sheer volume behind those two should bolster K's, QS's and W's, assuming they all win jobs. The pen is insanely deep. Holds won't be a problem, and the volume of innings these guys can provide will help deflate his ERA/WHIP a bit. Jansen will be his main source of saves, and holds can come from anywhere. Most of this staff is controlled, however Jansen, Morton, Worley, O'Day, and Peralta will all graduate. The minors won't be able to help out the rotation, but the pen may see a small influx.
MILB: Ryon Healy is interesting. He's a bit overshadowed in the A's system and can eventually take a spot on their roster. However the rest of the minors is looking pretty bare. If they make it to the majors, you're looking at spot starters and utility options.
Cap: With Stanton and Posey on the books through the decade, half of his cap will be eaten up by them. He has 50M+ in cap commitments through 2021 in those two players. A lot of his team beyond those two will be gone in 2-3 years with expiring contracts, although DeGrom will be in town until 2020, and Kazmir until 2019. The core will be around, and he'll have the cap to supplement those players with sneaky FA's.
Management and Summary: This team is the favorite in the aforementioned difficult AL Central. The offense is going to hit a lot, and although it’s not a deep rotation a strong bullpen will help balance everything out. There is a large cap commitment here, and 2 of his 4 big bats are likely leaving after this season. There is no farm to speak of, but this has been the case forever and he’s always managed. The Sox lean towards MLB for MLB trades (surprisingly rare in here), and does well at it. I’d expect this to continue going forward.
Why he’s here: This roster is the favorite to win the AL Central and could easily be the AL rep in the World Series. The White Sox are ahead of the teams below it on the strength of the MLB roster for 2016. I’m starting to split hairs, but I have it below the Royals because two very big offensive pieces will be expiring after 2016, and the starting pitching staff is a little short compared to the teams ahead.
4: Kansas City Royals
MLB:
Hitting: This is a solid overall lineup, with players who will contribute in every category. An injury to Dee Gordon will really hurt SB production, however outside of HR's this team should be fine in most categories. There's no SS, but Orlando Arcia should have the Brewers full time SS job by the end of May if not sooner. There is also a lot of control left on offense, with only Choo and Lawrie expiring in 2016, and Grandal and Santana will expire after 2017. Aside from Choo, there should be immediate replacements coming from the minors. Sisco should be ready to be the O's C after 2017, Arcia was already mentioned. He'll have to find a RF from somewhere most likely after 2016. Dee Gordon will most likely be extended after the 2016 season for another 4 years.
Pitching: There is a lot of young SP's here with top half of rotation fantasy potential in Gausman, Iglesias, Edwardo Rodriguez, and Sanchez. The Ross brothers also should be strong contributors. There's also a lot of risk here, as Sanchez may not make the rotation in TOR, and Joe Ross may get pushed out in WAS. WHIP/ERA could also end up as a problem. The pen is set up solidly with two closers in Giles and Britton, and then some holds options in Hudson, Baez, Jepsen, and maybe Brandon Maurer if he doesn't make the SD rotation. All but Britton and Jepsen are controlled through 2019. As for the starting rotation, Cashner expires after 2016, and Tyson Ross after 2017. Otherwise the rest are controlled cheaply through 2020.
MILB: Kopech, Tucker, Moncada, and Paulino head up the potential impact group in the low minors. By the time the MLB players are beginning to expire, this group should be ready to fill right in. There are also a lot of potentially solid if not impactful options on the way in a few years as well at most positions. OF and 1B are thin, as is C after Sisco graduates. There should be a lot of mid-bottom rotation options to fill out the MLB roster cheaply going forward.
Cap: Votto is expensive through 2021, however beyond that there aren't any major salary commitments. Most of the salary will be in the form of arbitration raises for a long time. 40M in payments will expire after 2016, and there are only 13M in combined payments/penalties in 2017. Votto's health and production will go a long way towards determining the overall cap health of the franchise, but at 25M and no other commitments cap space will not be very restrictive going forward.
Management and Summary: Most of this roster is controlled for a while. Too much will depend on Votto’s health, as he will be a big cog on this offense. The rotation is one monster upside gamble. If they don’t pan out it’s going to be problems for years. One closer and a RF will expire after 2016, then Santana in 2017, but the rest of the significant portions roster will be around for a long time. Most of the talent in the system is in the low minors, and tend towards higher risk players. Ideally the plan is that when the MLB roster starts to drop off to FA’s the low minors will be ready. Outside of the outfield (perhaps pitching), there are multiple options at each position that could be ready at that time and it can absorb some failure around the diamond. The Royals tend to be very active in both trading and free agency.
Why he’s here: The Royals are ahead of the teams above it because of a balanced offense and a deep pitching staff that are controlled for years to come. It’s probably fighting for 2nd in the AL Central this season because of the White Sox having a very strong roster, but going forward this roster loses fewer key pieces. Like some other spots, if you value sustainability less, you can have the Royals at 6 and bump the O’s and White Sox up a spot apiece. I have it below the teams ahead because the teams ahead are just way too good and have similar player control of their current rosters.
3: Pittsburgh Pirates
MLB:
Hitting: This team has a lot of power and batting average on it. Schwarber as a C eligible is strong, although it may force Jon Lucroy to the bench. Schwarber, Abreu, Forsythe, Seager, and Arenado provide what is probably the most powerful infield in the league. That is paired up with a really solid OF in Hamilton, Heyward, and some combo of Rosario and Brantley. When healthy this offense is well rounded enough to sweep all categories each week vs. most teams. The positional flexibility is where depth will come from, but a couple of injuries will sap that. Profar, Rosario (when Brantley comes back), Lucroy, and Ahmed will be the bench. There isn't any help coming soon in the minors. Seager will be promoted quickly, and beyond him there isn't much on offense anymore that will be up quickly. Fortunately, it's a generally young offense, as the core of the offense will be controlled through the 2018 season. Arenado, Abreu, and Brantley all expire after that point.
Pitching: Kluber is the ace here, but after that there are some question marks. Taijuan Walker is talented, but hasn't put it together yet. Carlos Martinez had a great year, but shoulder injuries can be scary and linger. Matz will likely be on an innings count this coming season. Ventura seems to be a victim of the Royals 5 innings then let the pen take over philosophy. Godley and Ray will be fighting each other and Archie Bradley for jobs at the back of the DBacks' rotation. If this rotation clicks, it's still going to struggle a bit to win K's, W's, and WHIP/ERA vs. the better rosters in the league. I'm just not sure the depth is there. The pen should be strong, with 3 good closers and a couple options for holds. Kluber is controlled through 2021 on a great contract, and his young SP's are all controlled through at least 2020. The current bullpen loses 1 arm per year for the next couple seasons. On the farm, Berrios could step right into the Twins rotation this spring and be solid. If John Lamb figures out where his pitches are going, he could be a lefty specialist in the Reds pen this season.
MILB: David Dahl has some things to work out, but could be a strong contributor in a few years in Colorado. Blake Trahan isn't an impact talent, but is capable of being fine in a few categories as long as he's in the MI. The pitching side is pretty barren. There are perhaps some non-leverage relief arms in there, maybe guys make a handful of starts in their career. But that's about it.
Cap: Despite a full roster, most of these players are on scale. There aren't many FA signings on the roster outside of Heyward, and even after extending Kluber the contract is so friendly it will barely make an impact. This roster is controlled long term, and will be cheap to maintain. The farm won't be much help, but there should be enough cap to spend some in FA's to plug holes that are made through contract expirations.
Management and Summary: This roster is obviously a contender right now and for the next couple of seasons. The Pirates have not really been aggressive traders for years, at least in terms of volume, but will make deals as needed and stays active. This roster is full and controlled for a long time. There will be free agent dollars available to supplement this roster and plenty of time to rebuild a minors if he goes that route.
Why he’s here: There is a definite divide after the top 3. This is a really strong MLB roster that will be controlled for a long time. That’s why it’s above everyone but the top two teams. I have it below the Cubs and Marlins because I think that it lacks some depth on offense and on the pitching staff, and the cupboard is bare in the minors after Berrios and Seager step into full time roles.
2: Miami Marlins
MLB:
Hitting: This is a really strong group. If I had to peg a weakness, it'd have to be RF. Souza can be a decent all around contributor if he's healthy, and Garcia still has potential in his bat to break out. Neither have really gotten close to their potential yet. The MI is also just OK, but this is where he's going to get a lot of his steals in Andrus, and if the Cubs have an injury, Baez could become a big contributor. D'Arnaud has a bad injury history, but hits when healthy. If he gets hurt, there won't be a backup because Rosario went overseas. There are a lot of teams where those question marks would represent their best MLB options. This is a well rounded and deep offense that will compete and win at every offensive category. It is also a very controlled offense. Freeman has an expensive long term extension that Marlins will have to decide on. Cespedes and Donaldson will also be extension eligible after 2017. Cespedes could be extremely expensive. A lot of the better depth on offense will be controlled via scale until 2020. I don't expect the minors to offer any help in the next 1-3 years, but because of all the control I don't know that it will be a huge problem.
Pitching: A weak point last year has been fixed through offseason trades and FA's. Salazar and Nola were added via trade and should be very solid, and FA's Hammel, Garcia, Volquez will provide solid depth behind them in the rotation. Depending on how jobs and health shake out, there are additional depth options in Martin Perez and Tommy Milone. In the pen holds shouldn't be a problem. There are a lot of strong options that will be holding 7/8th inning roles this year. There is no source of saves here though. There isn't any help to the rotation in the minors, however Michael Blazek can carve out a major role in the MLB pen this year.
MILB: If Chad Pinder gets a super-utility role someday, that will probably be the biggest contribution offensively that he'll see from the minors offensively. Pitching, most of these guys are non-holds bullpen options if they make it at all.
Cap: He should be under cap, but just barely. I think he's going to have room to extend one of Freeman or Cespedes, but not both. Donaldson will be relatively cheapish to extend, and won't be long term. He's going to have to manage the cap carefully to stay under and retain this roster. There are no cap commitments in 2017 to penalties or adjustments.
Management and Summary: Some contracts are expiring and there are some choices to make, but this roster will be too good in 2017 and probably ’18 to rank lower. The Marlins fixed the biggest roster hole by acquiring good scale pitching when he dealt Mike Trout. Even without Trout, this is probably the best offense in the league. The bullpen is devoid of saves, but it will be a major upset of it loses holds, and the rotation is possibly the deepest in the league. Marlins also makes more MLB for MLB trades, and uses picks in trades to fix cap issues. There will never be a minors here, I’m pretty sure.
Why he’s here: I’d not argue against a flip of Pirates and Marlins. This is mostly a nod to a depth advantage on the pitching staff, and just an extremely powerful offense. Sustainability is the separator here, and there isn’t a minor leaguer on the way at any time soon, which is why I can’t rank either the Marlins or Pirates ahead of the Cubs.
1: Chicago Cubs
MLB:
Hitting: This outfield is capable of being beastly. Inciarte is underrated, and has eligibility all over the OF. Trout is Trout. Soler disappointed last year, and the Fowler signing hurts him, but Sano will be playing RF in MIN this season and will gain eligibility quickly. Cargo got 40 homers last year and is a great hitter as well. He may not even need Soler this year. Nevermind on Trumbo, who's buried in this OF. Oh, good news he's 1B eligible so he can shore up one of the weaker points of this offense (if Morales doesn't repeat 2015). There isn't a terrific 3B, SS, or C option that can be counted on, but with everything else going on who cares? If there's a weak category, it's probably SB's unless Trout goes back to stealing bases again. OBP possibly, but it won't be too bad either. Depending on whether the Trout extension is taken, which it probably will, most of the core of this offense will be around until at least 2019. CarGo expires after 2017, Morales and Yunel Escobar after 2016. On the farm, there are ready replacements all over the place. Nick Williams, Gary Sanchez, Josh Bell, and Trea Turner are all amongst the best at their positions and will be ready in a year, if not sooner.
Pitching: This is a young and deep pitching staff. Clayton Kershaw is the anchor, but Gerrit Cole, Marcus Stroman, and Matt Harvey back him up. Veterans Cole Hamels and Jon Lester also give quality depth. Matt Cain suffered a setback, and who knows what Rich Hill can do, but they're also on the staff. In the pen, Aroldis Chapman and David Robertson provide the saves, and Joakim Soria, Joe Smith, Will Smith, and Benoit all give holds. As far as control, Cole and Harvey go off scale in 2018, and Stroman in 2019. Kershaw's contract is up in 2018, as does Robertson's and Cain's. Soria, Hamels, and Hill expire after 2016. On the MILB side, Giolito will be up to anchor the staff in 2017, possibly seeing time this September. Archie Bradley could land a spot in Arizona's rotation with a strong spring.
MILB: Devers is already an elite prospect and could grab a 3B spot sooner than I think. Tellez and Bellinger are two slugging 1B's. Stone Garrett and Braxton Davidson are two interesting OF prospects with big potential as well. Healthy seasons out of Dylan Cease and Kolby Allard will send their prospect stock soaring. There's a lot of potential impact in this farm.
Cap: There are 85M in salary commitments in 2017 before arbitration raises. It could be at the limit after that point with so many strong players going to year 4-6. There is also a 15M salary commitment here, so that makes it an even 100M. The salary for 2018 is 79M, but after that a lot of guys expire and will be replaced by players just starting to get scale pay.
Management and Summary: I think Psych lives here. This roster is young and controlled, and really it barely matters that he’s up against the cap because if he goes over it won’t be by much, and most of these guys have a market in trade if he goes looking. There is talented help on the way in the upper minors for spots that are going to expire soon, and there is prospect depth in the low minors at every position. It’s no longer the strongest farm in the league due to graduations, but it’s still strong. And I’m just going to go ahead and gloss over that he has the top SP and slightly more debatably the top bat in fantasy baseball.
Why he’s here: There are some similar teams in terms of 2016 talent, but nobody combines a strong current roster with control of current players with having a very strong minors that are set up to fill in for expiring players for years to come. Couple that with a strong cap situation and you have the strongest top to bottom org in the league.
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