Post by White Sox GM (Michael) on Jun 4, 2016 11:30:56 GMT -5
*Please keep checking back as I'm going to add everything right to this post. I may change the order in case I missed some obvious choice or something.*
Who are the 25 most valuable players in ODC right now? I saw people discussing this in the group chat, and these types of lists are done for the real MLB a lot too (e.g. on FanGraphs and Grantland -- this is modeled pretty closely after
Dave Cameron's yearly lists). For my non-definitive list, I'm considering the following:
Productivity: How good is the player right now? How well does that translate to our league's format?
Position: Players at scarcer positions (2B for example) are considered more valuable. This is borrowed from the idea of replacement players.
Salary: How much does a team have to pay this player, and how long is he under control? This is really the underlying definition of value: how much better is the player than his salary?
Age: Obviously a big factor in projecting future performance.
Demand: Not a big factor, but some types of players (maybe aces for example) usually get a trade return disproportionate to their value.
This is really not an easy list, so I'm starting by writing down all the candidates I see and then cutting it down to 25. I'm going to try to release five names each day, each of which will come with a blurb. First, though, I think I'll start with the honorable mentions.
Honorable Mentions:
You won't realize how stacked the top of the league is until you see some of the names on this list. Major League Baseball is simply populated with a shitton of young talent, so there are a lot of incredible players, many who are on very good contracts, who simply could not make the list. It's definitely not anything against these guys. Here are some players who didn't make the list:
Not proven yet:
There are lots of young pitchers out there who just don't have the track record to back up their success in the MLB so far, including Steven Matz (PIT) and Aaron Nola (MIA). Others, like Danny Salazar (MIA) and Carlos Carrasco (TEX) are not consistent enough to bring back as big of a haul in a trade as the pitchers ahead of them. On the hitter's side, Nomar Mazara (SF) has incredible power but hasn't proven enough of his all-around game just yet.
Recent struggles:
Lots of aces that would have made this list a year ago simply do not have the current value necessary to justify putting them on the list. Maybe someone more confident in these pitchers would force them into the top-25. These include Matt Harvey (CHC), Chris Archer (MIN), Dallas Keuchel (PHI), Corey Kluber (PIT), and Sonny Gray (BOS).
Stars that are a bit too expensive:
Not too expensive in the case that they wouldn't get a huge return in a trade, but these guys have contracts that would drive down the price for a potential buyer. That means that guys like Buster Posey (CWS), Robinson Cano (CLE), Giancarlo Stanton (CWS), Jake Arrieta (PHI), Max Scherzer (CLE) didn't make the list.
Too close to free agency:
Not everyone on this list is a half-decade away from free agency, but many of them are. When there are so many great players that are also under team control for a long time, there's no room for the great ones that will be free agents soon (as of now). Although Josh Donaldson (MIA) still mashes, two years of control isn't enough to vault him onto the list.
That also means that Andrew McCutchen (ARZ), one of the game's absolute best players over the past several years, is out of the top 25. He's fallen off a bit this year, and he's 31 years old, so maybe we can't just chalk it up to slumping. Sure, he's still great, but outfield is already stacked and McCutchen simply isn't producing enough to justify his spot on the list.
Sorry, we ran out of spots:
These guys are all young and productive and could be argued onto the top 25, but I had to make cuts and some deserving players were left off. A.J. Pollock (MIA) is out for the season, and Dee Gordon (KC) got suspended, doing damage to their present values. Marcell Ozuna (CIN) is breaking out, but he hasn't been producing at this level for long enough. Trevor Story (CIN) never walks and strikes out a lot. Salvador Perez (ARZ) has a sexy contract but derives a lot of his value with the glove (he's still a decent hitter). There are just too many to name, and focusing on the bad for these guys seems wrong, because they're still tremendous assets for their teams.
On to the list:
25. George Springer, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
Age: 26
Under team control through 2019 ($1M 2016, ARB 2017-19)
2016 year-to-date: 13 HR, 35 RBI, 3 SB, .293/.376/.517 (144 wRC+)
Springer's combination of strength and athleticism makes him a human highlight reel on the field. In parts of three seasons, he has displayed extraordinary home run power while also maintaining a decent on-base percentage that has improved to near-elite levels recently. In addition, Springer is definitely a double-digit steals threat, swiping 16 in only 102 games last season. His all-around game translates well to ODC's seven-category setup, and at 26, he should be raking for years to come.
24. Jose Quintana, SP, Baltimore Orioles
Age: 27
Under team control through 2020 ($0M 2016, ARB 2017, $8.8M 2018, $10.5M opt 2019, $10.5M opt 2020)
2016 year-to-date: 5-5, 2.13 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 1.8 BB/9
I've loved Quintana for a while, and this year he's taken his pitching to the next level. He's an ace. I mean, he kinda already was, but he's definitely not paid like one. I actually contemplated putting him higher, but he's going to give up more homers, and he doesn't get as many strikeouts as some other aces. But if Quintana was made available today, there's no reason why teams shouldn't trade a ton for him.
23. Jacob deGrom, SP, Chicago White Sox
Age: 27
Under team control through 2019 ($1M 2016, ARB 2017-19)
2016 year-to-date: 3-1, 2.62 ERA, 7.69 K/9, 2.62 BB/9
deGrom gets pushed down this list a little bit because of velocity concerns. However, it hasn't been too big of a deal for the White Sox's ace, as he's still putting up very solid numbers this season. It remains to be seen whether the issue is from mechanics or from injury, but it's hard to not love the consistent dominance of deGrom.
22. Francisco Lindor, SS, Seattle Mariners
Age: 22
Under team control through 2020 ($0.5M 2016, $1M 2017, ARB 2018-2020)
2016 year-to-date: 5 HR, 26 RBI, 10 SB, .308/.364/.439 (120 wRC+)
There are a ton of great young shortstops in the game right now, and Lindor seems to kinda get forgotten about. It makes sense: he doesn't have as much power as some of the other guys, and overall, he's a glove-first player in a way. Unfortunately, Gold Gloves don't count for shit here, but it doesn't even matter because Lindor's transformed himself into quite the hitter. At 22 years old, there's no reason to believe he won't be an above-average hitter at short for the next half-decade, and he has potential for even more than that. The more I think about it, the more this rank seems too low.
21. Manny Machado, 3B, Minnesota Twins
Age: 23
Under team control through 2017 ($3.2M 2016, ARB 2017)
2016 year-to-date: 14 HR, 35 RBI, 0 SB, .311/.377/.598 (156 wRC+)
One of the toughest guys to rank. If he reaches free agency after 2017, he and someone else on this list are probably going to get the highest FA contracts (for hitters) in ODC history. That sentence just about wraps up the dilemma with Machado and other players like him: he's one of the best players in the league, but a team only gets him for two playoff runs. Rebuilders would be out of this bidding war, but every competing team without one of their own 3B stars would be clamoring to get Manny. It's really hard to weigh short-term versus long-term value, but it's nice to *know* what you're going to get with Machado: two years of elite hitting at a really cheap price.
Who are the 25 most valuable players in ODC right now? I saw people discussing this in the group chat, and these types of lists are done for the real MLB a lot too (e.g. on FanGraphs and Grantland -- this is modeled pretty closely after
Dave Cameron's yearly lists). For my non-definitive list, I'm considering the following:
Productivity: How good is the player right now? How well does that translate to our league's format?
Position: Players at scarcer positions (2B for example) are considered more valuable. This is borrowed from the idea of replacement players.
Salary: How much does a team have to pay this player, and how long is he under control? This is really the underlying definition of value: how much better is the player than his salary?
Age: Obviously a big factor in projecting future performance.
Demand: Not a big factor, but some types of players (maybe aces for example) usually get a trade return disproportionate to their value.
This is really not an easy list, so I'm starting by writing down all the candidates I see and then cutting it down to 25. I'm going to try to release five names each day, each of which will come with a blurb. First, though, I think I'll start with the honorable mentions.
Honorable Mentions:
You won't realize how stacked the top of the league is until you see some of the names on this list. Major League Baseball is simply populated with a shitton of young talent, so there are a lot of incredible players, many who are on very good contracts, who simply could not make the list. It's definitely not anything against these guys. Here are some players who didn't make the list:
Not proven yet:
There are lots of young pitchers out there who just don't have the track record to back up their success in the MLB so far, including Steven Matz (PIT) and Aaron Nola (MIA). Others, like Danny Salazar (MIA) and Carlos Carrasco (TEX) are not consistent enough to bring back as big of a haul in a trade as the pitchers ahead of them. On the hitter's side, Nomar Mazara (SF) has incredible power but hasn't proven enough of his all-around game just yet.
Recent struggles:
Lots of aces that would have made this list a year ago simply do not have the current value necessary to justify putting them on the list. Maybe someone more confident in these pitchers would force them into the top-25. These include Matt Harvey (CHC), Chris Archer (MIN), Dallas Keuchel (PHI), Corey Kluber (PIT), and Sonny Gray (BOS).
Stars that are a bit too expensive:
Not too expensive in the case that they wouldn't get a huge return in a trade, but these guys have contracts that would drive down the price for a potential buyer. That means that guys like Buster Posey (CWS), Robinson Cano (CLE), Giancarlo Stanton (CWS), Jake Arrieta (PHI), Max Scherzer (CLE) didn't make the list.
Too close to free agency:
Not everyone on this list is a half-decade away from free agency, but many of them are. When there are so many great players that are also under team control for a long time, there's no room for the great ones that will be free agents soon (as of now). Although Josh Donaldson (MIA) still mashes, two years of control isn't enough to vault him onto the list.
That also means that Andrew McCutchen (ARZ), one of the game's absolute best players over the past several years, is out of the top 25. He's fallen off a bit this year, and he's 31 years old, so maybe we can't just chalk it up to slumping. Sure, he's still great, but outfield is already stacked and McCutchen simply isn't producing enough to justify his spot on the list.
Sorry, we ran out of spots:
These guys are all young and productive and could be argued onto the top 25, but I had to make cuts and some deserving players were left off. A.J. Pollock (MIA) is out for the season, and Dee Gordon (KC) got suspended, doing damage to their present values. Marcell Ozuna (CIN) is breaking out, but he hasn't been producing at this level for long enough. Trevor Story (CIN) never walks and strikes out a lot. Salvador Perez (ARZ) has a sexy contract but derives a lot of his value with the glove (he's still a decent hitter). There are just too many to name, and focusing on the bad for these guys seems wrong, because they're still tremendous assets for their teams.
On to the list:
25. George Springer, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
Age: 26
Under team control through 2019 ($1M 2016, ARB 2017-19)
2016 year-to-date: 13 HR, 35 RBI, 3 SB, .293/.376/.517 (144 wRC+)
Springer's combination of strength and athleticism makes him a human highlight reel on the field. In parts of three seasons, he has displayed extraordinary home run power while also maintaining a decent on-base percentage that has improved to near-elite levels recently. In addition, Springer is definitely a double-digit steals threat, swiping 16 in only 102 games last season. His all-around game translates well to ODC's seven-category setup, and at 26, he should be raking for years to come.
24. Jose Quintana, SP, Baltimore Orioles
Age: 27
Under team control through 2020 ($0M 2016, ARB 2017, $8.8M 2018, $10.5M opt 2019, $10.5M opt 2020)
2016 year-to-date: 5-5, 2.13 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 1.8 BB/9
I've loved Quintana for a while, and this year he's taken his pitching to the next level. He's an ace. I mean, he kinda already was, but he's definitely not paid like one. I actually contemplated putting him higher, but he's going to give up more homers, and he doesn't get as many strikeouts as some other aces. But if Quintana was made available today, there's no reason why teams shouldn't trade a ton for him.
23. Jacob deGrom, SP, Chicago White Sox
Age: 27
Under team control through 2019 ($1M 2016, ARB 2017-19)
2016 year-to-date: 3-1, 2.62 ERA, 7.69 K/9, 2.62 BB/9
deGrom gets pushed down this list a little bit because of velocity concerns. However, it hasn't been too big of a deal for the White Sox's ace, as he's still putting up very solid numbers this season. It remains to be seen whether the issue is from mechanics or from injury, but it's hard to not love the consistent dominance of deGrom.
22. Francisco Lindor, SS, Seattle Mariners
Age: 22
Under team control through 2020 ($0.5M 2016, $1M 2017, ARB 2018-2020)
2016 year-to-date: 5 HR, 26 RBI, 10 SB, .308/.364/.439 (120 wRC+)
There are a ton of great young shortstops in the game right now, and Lindor seems to kinda get forgotten about. It makes sense: he doesn't have as much power as some of the other guys, and overall, he's a glove-first player in a way. Unfortunately, Gold Gloves don't count for shit here, but it doesn't even matter because Lindor's transformed himself into quite the hitter. At 22 years old, there's no reason to believe he won't be an above-average hitter at short for the next half-decade, and he has potential for even more than that. The more I think about it, the more this rank seems too low.
21. Manny Machado, 3B, Minnesota Twins
Age: 23
Under team control through 2017 ($3.2M 2016, ARB 2017)
2016 year-to-date: 14 HR, 35 RBI, 0 SB, .311/.377/.598 (156 wRC+)
One of the toughest guys to rank. If he reaches free agency after 2017, he and someone else on this list are probably going to get the highest FA contracts (for hitters) in ODC history. That sentence just about wraps up the dilemma with Machado and other players like him: he's one of the best players in the league, but a team only gets him for two playoff runs. Rebuilders would be out of this bidding war, but every competing team without one of their own 3B stars would be clamoring to get Manny. It's really hard to weigh short-term versus long-term value, but it's nice to *know* what you're going to get with Machado: two years of elite hitting at a really cheap price.
